General Drafting Strategy? (I'm a first year noob)

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MinnieAndPaul
Posts: 17
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2012 10:42 am

General Drafting Strategy? (I'm a first year noob)

Postby MinnieAndPaul » Mon Apr 02, 2012 10:49 am

Hello,

This will officially be my first year doing Fantasy Baseball, so I'm fresh and unknowing. Is there a general accepted drafting strategy? For instance, always grab a certain position before another? Wait a certain amount of time for a pitcher? Grab 1B first, then OF, followed by 2B? Do I just use Grey's top 300 list and grab the best available?

I did hockey this past year (which I also was a noob) and won it (very competitive), but what really helped me out was that somebody gave me a 'blueprint' to draft. Would a system like that work with fantasy baseball?

Here is our league setup:

12T H2H
C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, Util, Util, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL
Runs (R), Home Runs (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI), Stolen Bases (SB), Batting Average (AVG)
Wins (W), Saves (SV), Strikeouts (K), Earned Run Average (ERA), (Walks + Hits)/ Innings Pitched (WHIP)

TL;DR - New to fantasy baseball. Is there a widely accepted rule on what position to draft per round? :?:
12 Team H2H
Runs (R), Home Runs (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI), Stolen Bases (SB), Batting Average (AVG)
Wins (W), Saves (SV), Strikeouts (K), Earned Run Average (ERA), (Walks + Hits)/ Innings Pitched (WHIP)

C Ruiz
1B Votto
2B Kendrick
3B Inge
SS Seager
OF McCutchen
OF Pence
OF Heyward
Util Butler
Util Schafer
BN Longoria
BN Berkman
DL Howard

SP Bumgarner
SP Gonzalez
RP Rodney
RP Robertson
P Lester
P Sanchez
P Scherzer
P Lynn
BN Capuano
BN Marshall
BN Rodriguez

atlantic7208
Posts: 7
Joined: Wed Mar 07, 2012 7:01 am

Re: General Drafting Strategy? (I'm a first year noob)

Postby atlantic7208 » Mon Apr 02, 2012 11:24 am

Geez, where to begin...

If you subscribe to views generally held on this site, you will note the following:

1) For hitters, power is more valuable than speed. Speed is cheap, variable, and, sadly, often dictated by managerial preference, game situation, and other things out of the control of the player. There will always be guys later on in the draft or off the waver wire who will give you steals if you need them. Remember, each HR is also a R and an RBI.

2) For pitchers, I value high K/9 (and hence K's if the guy throws a lot of innings), and low WHIP. W and ERA are harder to predict. Drafting closers early is stupid. Consider this year where "sure things" Ryan Madson, Joakim Soria, and Drew Storen are either already done, or headed that way.... Most peeps who drafted those guys wasted a pick, and probably a relatively high one. Look up the definition of SAGNOF and take it to heart. I am always the last in my league to take a closer and I have never finished in the bottom half for saves. SAGNOF!

2 1/2) Catchers are also somewhat unpredictable. You can usually get value on catchers later in the draft.

3) Draft guys who are dependable and solid early. Take risks later on. You need your early round picks to work out (or at least not bomb totally) in order to have a prayer. Hitters are more dependable than pitchers.

4) See the pitchers pairings tool on this site for a great blueprint toward pitching. Do not take a top tier pitcher. You need those picks for hitters whose power stats you will not find later in the draft.

5) In cases where there is a huge drop off between the best and the worst players, you want to fill those positions first. For instance, there are several high quality first basemen and then it gets bad pretty quickly. You want to be one of the guys with a top 1B, because a large number of your leaguemates are also likely to have a high quality 1B. At SS, however, there are only a couple high quality players, so most guys in your league will have SS's who suck, so it's less of a deal if you do.

6) Pursuant to #5, in positions where the pickings are slim, many drafters will panic and reach once the good players are going or gone. You're not going to do that. You're going to wait for value....

To recap:

Early, on take hitters. Try to fill 1B and 3B before the first 3 rounds of the draft are out. Pay attention to guys who fall. Wait until the first tier of pitchers is gone before you start choosing. Use the pitcher pairings tool and keep track of who is going. Draft C and SS late. Remember, steals and saves are cheap. If you miss out on closers, draft high WHIP and K guys who are closers-in-waiting on teams where the closer's role is shaky or the guy is injury prone (for instance this year I drafted Greg Holland and Sergio Romo very late, and picked up Jon Rauch on wavers after the draft. Soria is done, Francisco is getting a knee MRI, and The Beard is already reporting elbow discomfort. Go me.)

letsgobravos
Posts: 73
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2012 7:37 pm

Re: General Drafting Strategy? (I'm a first year noob)

Postby letsgobravos » Mon Apr 02, 2012 11:29 am

Hello,

This will officially be my first year doing Fantasy Baseball, so I'm fresh and unknowing. Is there a general accepted drafting strategy? For instance, always grab a certain position before another? Wait a certain amount of time for a pitcher? Grab 1B first, then OF, followed by 2B? Do I just use Grey's top 300 list and grab the best available?

I did hockey this past year (which I also was a noob) and won it (very competitive), but what really helped me out was that somebody gave me a 'blueprint' to draft. Would a system like that work with fantasy baseball?

Here is our league setup:

12T H2H
C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, Util, Util, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL
Runs (R), Home Runs (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI), Stolen Bases (SB), Batting Average (AVG)
Wins (W), Saves (SV), Strikeouts (K), Earned Run Average (ERA), (Walks + Hits)/ Innings Pitched (WHIP)

TL;DR - New to fantasy baseball. Is there a widely accepted rule on what position to draft per round? :?:
First, are you playing H2H or roto? If its H2H, this article by Grey will be helpful...http://razzball.com/fantasy-baseball-dr ... ategy-h2h/

Here's a couple of other pointers that I have gleaned from reading razzball for the last year...

1. Your first 10 picks should be offense heavy. Grey really pushes the idea of loading up on offense early and waiting for value pitchers later in the draft. Its also a good bet to try and leave the first 3 rounds with a 1b and either a 2b/3b.

2. Definitely don't take a pitcher in the first 2 rounds and its probably best to wait until the 4th or 5th round unless you get an incredible steal on an elite ace in the 3rd. My strategy this year has been to make Greinke my first target pitcher in the 4th round. This pitching tool based on grey's rankings is really helpful. http://razzball.com/wp-content/uploads/ ... ngs_1.html

3. Power is a much greater commodity than speed. Look for guys who can hit 25-30+ homers instead of pure speed guys in the middle rounds. There will probably always be a 20-30 steal guy available on waivers.

4. Don't draft elite closers. Depending on your league's roster set up, you can draft a couple of middle tier closers in the 11-14th rounds and then grab a cheap guy like Myers in the final rounds. If you get 4 decent/mediocre closers, you'll still probably beat the teams who drafted guys like Kimbrel in the 6th-8th round.

Hope this helps! Good luck.

(Grey, feel free to point out where I have strayed away from your philosophy)

aethomp1
Posts: 241
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2011 7:23 pm

Re: General Drafting Strategy? (I'm a first year noob)

Postby aethomp1 » Mon Apr 02, 2012 11:39 am

Something that I've seen, and was guilty of in my first draft, is the tendency to draft based on name recognition alone. Another problem that I had in my first draft was that I was hesitant to draft guys I hadn't seen play much. I am a Braves fan, so my fist draft was very heavy on guys in the NL East, which I had seen play a lot which backfired. Other than that, everything above is pretty solid advice.
Yahoo 12 team daily h2h. 5 moves/week
R, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, SB, BB, K, AVG
IP, W, SV, K, HLD, ERA, WHIP, QS

C - Gattis
1B - Todd Fraizer [k]
2B - Schoop [k]
3B - Arenado [k]
SS - Addison Russell
OF - McCutchen [k], Trumbo, Desmond
UTIL - Rendon
BN - Max Kepler

SP - Kluber [k], Carrasco [K]
RP - Greg Holland, Kelvin Herrera
P - Kintzler, Dyson
BN - Joe Ross, Duffy [k], Nova, Carlos Martinez [k], Skaggs

Wilsonian
Posts: 290
Joined: Wed Jul 20, 2011 12:04 pm

Re: General Drafting Strategy? (I'm a first year noob)

Postby Wilsonian » Mon Apr 02, 2012 1:16 pm

I'm just going to concur with the above guys. I don't really have anything major to add. Just be aware of the injury risk guys and avoid them like the plague. Let someone else reach for the Josh Johnsons of the world. People like him are awesome when they're healthy, but it just doesn't happen all the time.

And definitely follow the SAGNOF advice. Steals and saves are cheap. Let others get Mariano, Valverde, etc., then start off taking two middle of the road guys, and two late guys. Worst case scenario is take the handcuffs, like others have said.

And let others take the top pitchers. Let them miss out on the big power guys and come crawling back to you when they need some bats during the season.
8 Team H2H (H, R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OB+SLUG, W, QS, SV, Ks, Ks/9, ERA, WHIP)

C - McCann
1B - Fielder
2B - Utley
3B - Longoria
SS - Tulo
OF - Jones
OF - Crush Davis
OF - Marte
UTIL - Hanley
UTIL - Jennings
BN - Pedro

SP - Gio
SP - Scherzer
SP - Moore
RP - Mujica
RP - Parnell
P - Gregg
P - Benoit
P - Minor
BN - H.Bailey
BN - Lackey
BN - Hellickson
BN - Kluber

16 Team H2H (H, R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OB+SLUG, W, L, SV, Ks, Ks/9, ERA, WHIP)

C - JP
1B - Goldy
2B - Uggla
3B - Machado
SS - Tulo
OF - Jones
OF - AJax
OF - Stanton
UTIL - Francisco
UTIL - Lo-Cain
BN - Heyward
DL - BJ

SP - Moore
SP - Dempster
SP - Latos
RP - Mujica
RP - Uehara
P - Veras
P - Porcello
BN - Parker
BN - Erasmo
BN - Nolasco
BN - W.Peralta

MinnieAndPaul
Posts: 17
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2012 10:42 am

Re: General Drafting Strategy? (I'm a first year noob)

Postby MinnieAndPaul » Mon Apr 02, 2012 1:34 pm

Geez, where to begin...

If you subscribe to views generally held on this site, you will note the following:

1) For hitters, power is more valuable than speed. Speed is cheap, variable, and, sadly, often dictated by managerial preference, game situation, and other things out of the control of the player. There will always be guys later on in the draft or off the waver wire who will give you steals if you need them. Remember, each HR is also a R and an RBI.

Good info.

2) For pitchers, I value high K/9 (and hence K's if the guy throws a lot of innings), and low WHIP. W and ERA are harder to predict. Drafting closers early is stupid. Consider this year where "sure things" Ryan Madson, Joakim Soria, and Drew Storen are either already done, or headed that way.... Most peeps who drafted those guys wasted a pick, and probably a relatively high one. Look up the definition of SAGNOF and take it to heart. I am always the last in my league to take a closer and I have never finished in the bottom half for saves. SAGNOF!

High K/9 ?

2 1/2) Catchers are also somewhat unpredictable. You can usually get value on catchers later in the draft.

Sounds straight forward.

3) Draft guys who are dependable and solid early. Take risks later on. You need your early round picks to work out (or at least not bomb totally) in order to have a prayer. Hitters are more dependable than pitchers.

4) See the pitchers pairings tool on this site for a great blueprint toward pitching. Do not take a top tier pitcher. You need those picks for hitters whose power stats you will not find later in the draft.

This tool just gives you the best pick for the last pick right?

5) In cases where there is a huge drop off between the best and the worst players, you want to fill those positions first. For instance, there are several high quality first basemen and then it gets bad pretty quickly. You want to be one of the guys with a top 1B, because a large number of your leaguemates are also likely to have a high quality 1B. At SS, however, there are only a couple high quality players, so most guys in your league will have SS's who suck, so it's less of a deal if you do.

So try for: 1B then OF then 3B?

6) Pursuant to #5, in positions where the pickings are slim, many drafters will panic and reach once the good players are going or gone. You're not going to do that. You're going to wait for value....

How do I know when the pickings are slim? I don't think Grey's rankings are tiered.

To recap:

Early, on take hitters. Try to fill 1B and 3B before the first 3 rounds of the draft are out. Pay attention to guys who fall. Wait until the first tier of pitchers is gone before you start choosing. Use the pitcher pairings tool and keep track of who is going. Draft C and SS late. Remember, steals and saves are cheap. If you miss out on closers, draft high WHIP and K guys who are closers-in-waiting on teams where the closer's role is shaky or the guy is injury prone (for instance this year I drafted Greg Holland and Sergio Romo very late, and picked up Jon Rauch on wavers after the draft. Soria is done, Francisco is getting a knee MRI, and The Beard is already reporting elbow discomfort. Go me.)
Great recap, thanks!
12 Team H2H
Runs (R), Home Runs (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI), Stolen Bases (SB), Batting Average (AVG)
Wins (W), Saves (SV), Strikeouts (K), Earned Run Average (ERA), (Walks + Hits)/ Innings Pitched (WHIP)

C Ruiz
1B Votto
2B Kendrick
3B Inge
SS Seager
OF McCutchen
OF Pence
OF Heyward
Util Butler
Util Schafer
BN Longoria
BN Berkman
DL Howard

SP Bumgarner
SP Gonzalez
RP Rodney
RP Robertson
P Lester
P Sanchez
P Scherzer
P Lynn
BN Capuano
BN Marshall
BN Rodriguez

MinnieAndPaul
Posts: 17
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2012 10:42 am

Re: General Drafting Strategy? (I'm a first year noob)

Postby MinnieAndPaul » Mon Apr 02, 2012 1:40 pm

Hello,

This will officially be my first year doing Fantasy Baseball, so I'm fresh and unknowing. Is there a general accepted drafting strategy? For instance, always grab a certain position before another? Wait a certain amount of time for a pitcher? Grab 1B first, then OF, followed by 2B? Do I just use Grey's top 300 list and grab the best available?

I did hockey this past year (which I also was a noob) and won it (very competitive), but what really helped me out was that somebody gave me a 'blueprint' to draft. Would a system like that work with fantasy baseball?

Here is our league setup:

12T H2H
C, 1B, 2B, 3B, SS, OF, OF, OF, Util, Util, SP, SP, RP, RP, P, P, P, P, BN, BN, BN, BN, BN, DL
Runs (R), Home Runs (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI), Stolen Bases (SB), Batting Average (AVG)
Wins (W), Saves (SV), Strikeouts (K), Earned Run Average (ERA), (Walks + Hits)/ Innings Pitched (WHIP)

TL;DR - New to fantasy baseball. Is there a widely accepted rule on what position to draft per round? :?:
First, are you playing H2H or roto? If its H2H, this article by Grey will be helpful...http://razzball.com/fantasy-baseball-dr ... ategy-h2h/

Here's a couple of other pointers that I have gleaned from reading razzball for the last year...

1. Your first 10 picks should be offense heavy. Grey really pushes the idea of loading up on offense early and waiting for value pitchers later in the draft. Its also a good bet to try and leave the first 3 rounds with a 1b and either a 2b/3b.

So leave the first three rounds with a 1B and a 2B/3B .. what is the other category? OF?

2. Definitely don't take a pitcher in the first 2 rounds and its probably best to wait until the 4th or 5th round unless you get an incredible steal on an elite ace in the 3rd. My strategy this year has been to make Greinke my first target pitcher in the 4th round. This pitching tool based on grey's rankings is really helpful. http://razzball.com/wp-content/uploads/ ... ngs_1.html

Thanks!

3. Power is a much greater commodity than speed. Look for guys who can hit 25-30+ homers instead of pure speed guys in the middle rounds. There will probably always be a 20-30 steal guy available on waivers.

4. Don't draft elite closers. Depending on your league's roster set up, you can draft a couple of middle tier closers in the 11-14th rounds and then grab a cheap guy like Myers in the final rounds. If you get 4 decent/mediocre closers, you'll still probably beat the teams who drafted guys like Kimbrel in the 6th-8th round.

So what does the first 10 rounds typically end up looking like?

Hope this helps! Good luck.

(Grey, feel free to point out where I have strayed away from your philosophy)
12 Team H2H
Runs (R), Home Runs (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI), Stolen Bases (SB), Batting Average (AVG)
Wins (W), Saves (SV), Strikeouts (K), Earned Run Average (ERA), (Walks + Hits)/ Innings Pitched (WHIP)

C Ruiz
1B Votto
2B Kendrick
3B Inge
SS Seager
OF McCutchen
OF Pence
OF Heyward
Util Butler
Util Schafer
BN Longoria
BN Berkman
DL Howard

SP Bumgarner
SP Gonzalez
RP Rodney
RP Robertson
P Lester
P Sanchez
P Scherzer
P Lynn
BN Capuano
BN Marshall
BN Rodriguez

MinnieAndPaul
Posts: 17
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2012 10:42 am

Re: General Drafting Strategy? (I'm a first year noob)

Postby MinnieAndPaul » Mon Apr 02, 2012 1:42 pm

Something that I've seen, and was guilty of in my first draft, is the tendency to draft based on name recognition alone. Another problem that I had in my first draft was that I was hesitant to draft guys I hadn't seen play much. I am a Braves fan, so my fist draft was very heavy on guys in the NL East, which I had seen play a lot which backfired. Other than that, everything above is pretty solid advice.
No problem here, I really don't know any names ;)
12 Team H2H
Runs (R), Home Runs (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI), Stolen Bases (SB), Batting Average (AVG)
Wins (W), Saves (SV), Strikeouts (K), Earned Run Average (ERA), (Walks + Hits)/ Innings Pitched (WHIP)

C Ruiz
1B Votto
2B Kendrick
3B Inge
SS Seager
OF McCutchen
OF Pence
OF Heyward
Util Butler
Util Schafer
BN Longoria
BN Berkman
DL Howard

SP Bumgarner
SP Gonzalez
RP Rodney
RP Robertson
P Lester
P Sanchez
P Scherzer
P Lynn
BN Capuano
BN Marshall
BN Rodriguez

MinnieAndPaul
Posts: 17
Joined: Mon Apr 02, 2012 10:42 am

Re: General Drafting Strategy? (I'm a first year noob)

Postby MinnieAndPaul » Mon Apr 02, 2012 1:45 pm

I'm just going to concur with the above guys. I don't really have anything major to add. Just be aware of the injury risk guys and avoid them like the plague. Let someone else reach for the Josh Johnsons of the world. People like him are awesome when they're healthy, but it just doesn't happen all the time.

Where would I find injury information?

And definitely follow the SAGNOF advice. Steals and saves are cheap. Let others get Mariano, Valverde, etc., then start off taking two middle of the road guys, and two late guys. Worst case scenario is take the handcuffs, like others have said.

And let others take the top pitchers. Let them miss out on the big power guys and come crawling back to you when they need some bats during the season.

Is there a name of a pitcher, where once they are taken I should be thinking 'oh shit' in my head and then go grab one? Once top 5 are gone? Once the first two are gone?
12 Team H2H
Runs (R), Home Runs (HR), Runs Batted In (RBI), Stolen Bases (SB), Batting Average (AVG)
Wins (W), Saves (SV), Strikeouts (K), Earned Run Average (ERA), (Walks + Hits)/ Innings Pitched (WHIP)

C Ruiz
1B Votto
2B Kendrick
3B Inge
SS Seager
OF McCutchen
OF Pence
OF Heyward
Util Butler
Util Schafer
BN Longoria
BN Berkman
DL Howard

SP Bumgarner
SP Gonzalez
RP Rodney
RP Robertson
P Lester
P Sanchez
P Scherzer
P Lynn
BN Capuano
BN Marshall
BN Rodriguez

aethomp1
Posts: 241
Joined: Tue Jul 05, 2011 7:23 pm

Re: General Drafting Strategy? (I'm a first year noob)

Postby aethomp1 » Mon Apr 02, 2012 3:24 pm

Today's "One Pineda, See You Lata, Three Pineda, Four" post has some injury news. also look at
http://razzball.com/20-risky-pitchers-for-2011/
http://razzball.com/ryans-hopeless/
and CBS sports did a pretty decent article on injury risks
http://fantasynews.cbssports.com/fantas ... k-sleepers

CBS left off morneau and mauer, who I will have nothing to do with.

As far as pitchers, http://razzball.com/starters-to-target- ... -baseball/ is a pretty good article also look at all of the SP rankings in the 2012 fantasy baseball rankings tab.

Just in general, I would wait until around the 5th or 6th round to even think about a SP, unless one of the top 5-10 falls to the 4th round. Also, if the pitchers available in the 5th and 6th have a lower ADP than 5th or 6th round, don't reach for them. There are enough quality starters that you really shouldn't panic unless you get much past the 7th or 8th round without drafting one.
Yahoo 12 team daily h2h. 5 moves/week
R, 2B, 3B, HR, RBI, SB, BB, K, AVG
IP, W, SV, K, HLD, ERA, WHIP, QS

C - Gattis
1B - Todd Fraizer [k]
2B - Schoop [k]
3B - Arenado [k]
SS - Addison Russell
OF - McCutchen [k], Trumbo, Desmond
UTIL - Rendon
BN - Max Kepler

SP - Kluber [k], Carrasco [K]
RP - Greg Holland, Kelvin Herrera
P - Kintzler, Dyson
BN - Joe Ross, Duffy [k], Nova, Carlos Martinez [k], Skaggs


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