Drafting pitchers early!

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AdmiralTrey
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Drafting pitchers early!

Postby AdmiralTrey » Sun Feb 19, 2012 10:16 pm

So uh, yeah, drafting pitchers early is a bad idea. You know it, I know it, probably even Giants GM Brian Sabean knows it(5 first round pitchers taken since 2006). But I was curious, so I did a few mock drafts where I drafted tons of pitching early for a blog that I'm writing to keep my fantasy thoughts (No, not that kind) together and to keep myself from being bored. Anyway, I thought I'd share my teams and my thoughts with y'all to see what Razzballers thought of this unwise strategy:

Team 1, 9th pick:
C – J.P. Arencibia
1B – Mark Reynolds
2B – Dan Uggla
3B – Evan Longoria
SS – J.J. Hardy
OF – Coco Crisp
OF – Jeff Francoeur
OF – Mark Trumbo
UTL – Freddie Freeman
UTL – Alex Rios

Bench – Austin Jackson, Brennan Boesch, Ben Revere, Alcides Escobar

SP – Clayton Kershaw
SP – Jered Weaver
RP – John Axford
RP – Brian Wilson
P – Jose Valverde
P – Jon Lester
P – Stephen Strasburg
P – C.J. Wilson

Bench – Grant Balfour

My strategy here was to get a few high-powered infielders and fill in the gaps with speedsters everywhere else. Unfortunately for me, Cameron Maybin, Ichiro, and Emilo Bonifacio were all taken one pick before me almost in back to back to back rounds! I feel like this pitching staff would absolutely obliterate everyone else in the league in every category, assuming I could add SAGNOF closers as the season progressed.





Team 2, 12th pick:
C – Yadier Molina
1B – Mark Trumbo
2B – Jemile Weeks
3B – Mark Reynolds
SS – J.J. Hardy
OF – Josh Hamilton
OF – Hunter Pence
OF – Ichiro Suzuki
UTL – Coco Crisp
UTL – Mike Moustakas

Bench – Austin Jackson, Vladimir Guerrero, Ben Revere

SP – Clayton Kershaw
SP – Roy Halladay
RP – John Axford
RP – Andrew Bailey
P – Jose Valverde
P – Jon Lester
P – Stephen Strasburg
P – C.J. Wilson

Bench – Jonny Venters, Vinnie Pestano


This time I tried to get a more balanced offense and I made darn sure that I got some outfielders early. I feel like this team would be a little bit power-light, but tons of speed, competitive in runs/RBI, and should have a pretty good offense even despite having Reynolds. The pitching staff is basically the same, but a little bit better overall, IMO, with Venters supplementing the strikeouts that I lose by having Halladay instead of Weaver and Pestano potentially taking Perez's job during the season.



What do y'all think about these two teams? Obviously the offenses are NOT good, but would it be possible to actually contend with a team makeup like this? I don't believe in taking pitchers early myself, but I really want to try something off the wall in a Yahoo! public league this year just to see what happens. I''m really interested in putting these teams through the Warroom when it comes up this week.

10 Team 6X6 H2H Dynasty Year 5
C - Wilson Ramos
1B - Freddie Freeman
2B - Gleyber Torres
3B - Nolan Arenado
SS - Trea Turner
OF - Mike Trout
OF - Ronald Acuna
OF - Yordan Alvarez
OF - Kris Bryant
UTL - Javier Baez
UTL - Adalberto Mondesi
Bench - Rhys Hoskins, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Jonathan Schoop, Rowdy Tellez

SP - Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Blake Snell, Chris Sale, Jose Berrios, Chris Paddack, Mike Soroka, German Marquez
RP - Ken Giles, Dellin Betances, Taylor Rogers, Geovanny Gallegos, Colin Poche, Corey Knebel
Pedo NA Purgatory Felipse Vazquez

Prospects:
SP: Grayson Rodriguez, Josiah Gray, Seth Corry, Franklin Perez, Ryan Weathers, Blake Walston
RP: James Karinchak
OF: Luis Robert, Alek Thomas, Jesus Sanchez, Kameron Misner, Bayron Lora
IF: Vidal Brujan, Alexander Mojica, Malcolm Nunez, Greg Jones, Gunnar Henderson
C: Sam Huff, Luis Campusano, William Contreras

Results:
2019 - 4th place. Finished regular season 20 games ahead of 2nd place but fell apart in the playoffs.
2018 - 1st place. Finished regular season 24 games ahead of 2nd place and won in the playoffs.
2017 - 2nd place. Finished regular season 5 games ahead of 2nd place but lost in the playoffs.
2016 - 1st place. Finished regular season 1.5 games behind 1st but won in the playoffs

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Bourne
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Re: Drafting pitchers early!

Postby Bourne » Mon Feb 20, 2012 4:22 am

Your first team is VERY avg light. You will be trading one or more of your over paid arms for a big bat during the season in both leagues. Luckily, it will be a hopefully proven healthy bat at that time so You can remove some of that risk in choosing a bat.
RCL Cracking the Whip: (5x5 ESPN roto)
C: Weiters
1B,3B,CI: Encarnacion, Wright, Alanso
2B,SS,MI: Getz, Kozma, Uggla
5xOF: Kemp, Holliday, Hunter, Soriano, Crisp
1xUtil: Markakis
Bn: Hill, Aybar
DL: Hart
SP: MadBum, Zimmermann, Morrow, Annibal Sanchez, Lynn, Anderson
RP: League, Parnell, Benoit, Hernandez

12 team F&F: (6x6 Yahoo! H2H with OPS and Losses)
C: Cervelli
1B,3B,CI: Gold, Zimmerman, Frazier
2B,SS,MI: Phillips, Ruthledge, Bonifacio
4xOF: Braun, Hamilton, Cruz, Hunter
2xUtil: Chris Davis, Span
SP: Latos, Moore, Zimmermann, Niese, Milone, Griffin, Miller, Cingrani, ~Streamer~
RP: Holland, Janssen, Perkins, Bailey, Valverde
2xNA: Straily, Grandal

JoeC
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Re: Drafting pitchers early!

Postby JoeC » Mon Feb 20, 2012 9:16 am

"Light in average", Bourn? He has no average. He may set a league record for lowest team BA in history with that first team! :)

Obviously your starting pitching is balls to the wall. But I think you might even be overestimating the ability of your offense to compete.

Hardy and Crisp are big injury risks and Trumbo is hardly guaranteed a full season of at-bats. I'm not even sure Alex Rios is rosterable in a 3 OF/2 UTIL league. I certainly wouldn't want him on *my* team.

You're also probably finishing last in Steals with this team. I wouldn't vouch for you in the Runs cat either. Finishing in last place in ANY category is terrible. In my view, you're basically punting steals and BA with your first team. No matter how much you dominate pitching, it won't make up for the likely 1's or 2's you're going to earn in some of the offensive cats.

Team 2 is better. You have 4 guys that could conceivably hit .300 (Molina, Hamilton, Pence and Ichiro) so you likely will finish at least middle of the pack in BA.

Steals should be much better as well and Runs will follow. You still have the injury risk of Hardy and Crisp, along with adding Hamilton to the mix. Trumbo still has playing time concerns and I don't know what, if anything, you get from Moustakas. You have it right that HRs and RBIs will be a problem.

I could see this team competing more than team #1, but I think you could really shore up that offense by taking a solid bat in lieu of taking two SP1s in Halladay and Kershaw. One SP1 is fine. Two is overkill.

I also see some value in passing on Bailey and his injury risk and taking another solid bat instead. You can get reliable Saves later or off the waiver wire.

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AdmiralTrey
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Re: Drafting pitchers early!

Postby AdmiralTrey » Mon Feb 20, 2012 11:21 am

Yeah, team 1 was really screwed over speed-wise when Bonifacio, Ichiro, and Maybin were all taken before I grabbed them, but I feel like I added enough SAGNOF guys at the end that I could micromanage and at least finish middle of the pack in steals.

Having never tried a pitching-heavy draft before in my life, I think I learned a lot in the first draft, which is why the second draft turned out significantly better. My goal with the second team was to be able to finish middle of the pack in every offensive category while finishing at or very near the top in every pitching category, and I think that could be accomplished with a little bit of luck.

Of course these were both mock drafts born of boredom, so neither team will ever be able to prove anything on the fantasy field, but I really think I am going to do one real draft like this just to have something completely different and see what happens. So far, all of my mocks have ended up with nearly the same players in the end, just varying based on what pick I have for the first 2 or 3 rounds.

The REALLY funny thing is that with the first team, I originally planned on taking Halladay or Verlander with my second pick and they didn't even make it to me in the 4th pick of the second round, and the people who took them were likely mocking their real strategies, while I mocked their mocks.

10 Team 6X6 H2H Dynasty Year 5
C - Wilson Ramos
1B - Freddie Freeman
2B - Gleyber Torres
3B - Nolan Arenado
SS - Trea Turner
OF - Mike Trout
OF - Ronald Acuna
OF - Yordan Alvarez
OF - Kris Bryant
UTL - Javier Baez
UTL - Adalberto Mondesi
Bench - Rhys Hoskins, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Jonathan Schoop, Rowdy Tellez

SP - Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Blake Snell, Chris Sale, Jose Berrios, Chris Paddack, Mike Soroka, German Marquez
RP - Ken Giles, Dellin Betances, Taylor Rogers, Geovanny Gallegos, Colin Poche, Corey Knebel
Pedo NA Purgatory Felipse Vazquez

Prospects:
SP: Grayson Rodriguez, Josiah Gray, Seth Corry, Franklin Perez, Ryan Weathers, Blake Walston
RP: James Karinchak
OF: Luis Robert, Alek Thomas, Jesus Sanchez, Kameron Misner, Bayron Lora
IF: Vidal Brujan, Alexander Mojica, Malcolm Nunez, Greg Jones, Gunnar Henderson
C: Sam Huff, Luis Campusano, William Contreras

Results:
2019 - 4th place. Finished regular season 20 games ahead of 2nd place but fell apart in the playoffs.
2018 - 1st place. Finished regular season 24 games ahead of 2nd place and won in the playoffs.
2017 - 2nd place. Finished regular season 5 games ahead of 2nd place but lost in the playoffs.
2016 - 1st place. Finished regular season 1.5 games behind 1st but won in the playoffs

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Re: Drafting pitchers early!

Postby Eddy » Mon Feb 20, 2012 6:44 pm

I have never drafted pitchers early (and don't advise it). It was interesting, however, to observe a fellow Razzballer attempt to go pitching heavy in an RCL last year.

His goal was to go all in for pitching and all in for speed. And he succeeded.

He got a 12 in speed, and 12 in Ks, Saves, ERA, WHIP and a 10 in W. The problem? He had a 2 in R, and 1s in HR and RBI. He had an 8 in AVG. All in all, it was a pretty solid attempt, landing him 3rd place with 82 points, one point behind second, one point ahead of fourth.

But everything broke right for him on the pitching side. He had Weaver Halladay and Cain with Feliz, Bell, Mo and Walden.

Even then, the complete lack of power hurts and won't net you first, which in that league was me with 98.5 pts!

I can see a different argument for H2H, seeing as in a standard 5x5 league you could potentially win 7-3 when everything breaks right. But we know once the playoffs start, everything is an absolute crapshoot.

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Re: Drafting pitchers early!

Postby AdmiralTrey » Mon Feb 20, 2012 6:53 pm

I have never drafted pitchers early (and don't advise it). It was interesting, however, to observe a fellow Razzballer attempt to go pitching heavy in an RCL last year.

His goal was to go all in for pitching and all in for speed. And he succeeded.

He got a 12 in speed, and 12 in Ks, Saves, ERA, WHIP and a 10 in W. The problem? He had a 2 in R, and 1s in HR and RBI. He had an 8 in AVG. All in all, it was a pretty solid attempt, landing him 3rd place with 82 points, one point behind second, one point ahead of fourth.

But everything broke right for him on the pitching side. He had Weaver Halladay and Cain with Feliz, Bell, Mo and Walden.

Even then, the complete lack of power hurts and won't net you first, which in that league was me with 98.5 pts!

I can see a different argument for H2H, seeing as in a standard 5x5 league you could potentially win 7-3 when everything breaks right. But we know once the playoffs start, everything is an absolute crapshoot.


Wow, doing that in an RCL is really brave... If I ever actually try it, it's going to be in a standard Yahoo! public league where half the managers check out by August. It'd be more to have fun than to actually expect to win, though. Pitching heavy teams aren't built for winning in fantasy.

10 Team 6X6 H2H Dynasty Year 5
C - Wilson Ramos
1B - Freddie Freeman
2B - Gleyber Torres
3B - Nolan Arenado
SS - Trea Turner
OF - Mike Trout
OF - Ronald Acuna
OF - Yordan Alvarez
OF - Kris Bryant
UTL - Javier Baez
UTL - Adalberto Mondesi
Bench - Rhys Hoskins, Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Jonathan Schoop, Rowdy Tellez

SP - Gerrit Cole, Stephen Strasburg, Blake Snell, Chris Sale, Jose Berrios, Chris Paddack, Mike Soroka, German Marquez
RP - Ken Giles, Dellin Betances, Taylor Rogers, Geovanny Gallegos, Colin Poche, Corey Knebel
Pedo NA Purgatory Felipse Vazquez

Prospects:
SP: Grayson Rodriguez, Josiah Gray, Seth Corry, Franklin Perez, Ryan Weathers, Blake Walston
RP: James Karinchak
OF: Luis Robert, Alek Thomas, Jesus Sanchez, Kameron Misner, Bayron Lora
IF: Vidal Brujan, Alexander Mojica, Malcolm Nunez, Greg Jones, Gunnar Henderson
C: Sam Huff, Luis Campusano, William Contreras

Results:
2019 - 4th place. Finished regular season 20 games ahead of 2nd place but fell apart in the playoffs.
2018 - 1st place. Finished regular season 24 games ahead of 2nd place and won in the playoffs.
2017 - 2nd place. Finished regular season 5 games ahead of 2nd place but lost in the playoffs.
2016 - 1st place. Finished regular season 1.5 games behind 1st but won in the playoffs

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Re: Drafting pitchers early!

Postby JoeC » Mon Feb 20, 2012 7:20 pm

Wow, doing that in an RCL is really brave... If I ever actually try it, it's going to be in a standard Yahoo! public league where half the managers check out by August. It'd be more to have fun than to actually expect to win, though. Pitching heavy teams aren't built for winning in fantasy.
Then I guess I'm really brave! ;)

I tried this in my RCL league last year and booyah, I got smoked. In a desperate attempt to salvage my season, I traded two of my aces away for offense and was actually able to recover to 4th place (which was good, because I was 11th at one point!).

I learned my lesson. Don't do that. Now it's like "hot stove: don't touch" for me.

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Re: Drafting pitchers early!

Postby Bobrob2004 » Mon Feb 20, 2012 8:32 pm

In a 12 team league, when is the best round to take your first starting pitcher? I've been taking one about the 6th or 7th round.

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Maybe the exception is in a points league....

Postby railsplitter » Tue Feb 21, 2012 9:10 am

I am new to a 14 team points league. I noticed based on the chosen categories that the top 25 pitchers are much more valuable than batters (for example top pitcher worth 956 and top batter 656. At the 25th position for each the pitcher is 573 and the batter 474. It begins to even our around the 50th player ranked in each.

In this situation I am thinking go with 2 pitchers in my top 3 picks. What do you think?

JoeC
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Re: Drafting pitchers early!

Postby JoeC » Tue Feb 21, 2012 4:56 pm

In a 12 team league, when is the best round to take your first starting pitcher? I've been taking one about the 6th or 7th round.
It depends. Grey has a good post on pitcher draft pairings that answers this question (http://razzball.com/2012-fantasy-baseba ... -pairings/). You don't have to start in Round 6 or 7, but there is a certain way to go about it if you do.

My PERSONAL preference is to wait until the 6th or 7th, but that's not a hard-and-fast rule.

Grasshopper say, you must BE the draft! :)


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