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Re: 2012 projections - Wisdom of the crowds

Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2012 1:23 pm
by bookiebob
Akston,

I have a more general question about the strategy of "crowdsourcing" projections.

By using multiple data sets, doesn't that have the effect of narrowing the highest and lowest projections into something more resembling the middle of the road?

It would eliminate outliers, both high and low, but also squash any projection that might be too far from the mean. Sometimes, those "unusual" projections give insight about what a player might do.

By averaging the data, aren't you producing projections that are more "mainstream"?

That may be the goal of your project, and it seems to have tremendous value when comparing it to any single set of projections.

I've been working from a set of projections that "doesn't look right" to me. Your data helps point out inconsistencies in the data set I've been looking at.

Thanks for all the work you've done on this!

Re: 2012 projections - Wisdom of the crowds

Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2012 2:29 pm
by M.D.
That is a pretty cool spreadsheet man.

It'd be cool if you could remove the projections that you think are garbage (cough, espn, cough cough). Like have a check box option or something.

Didn't see the razzball projections in there. I'm assuming that you're waiting for the spreadsheet to come out.

Re: 2012 projections - Wisdom of the crowds

Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2012 2:41 pm
by Akston
Making the ability to remove certain projections would require far too much work than I'm willing to put in. And I don't really see why everyone hates ESPN projections so much. The same could be said for Bill James overly bullish projections, but I would include them in here if I had them - as the more the merrier.

Once the Razzball projections are out, I'll include them. Ditto Zips and a few other latecomers.

Re: 2012 projections - Wisdom of the crowds

Posted: Fri Feb 17, 2012 5:12 pm
by Paper Tiger
Great work. I can't wait to use them in some mocks. I'll let you know how it goes.

Re: 2012 projections - Wisdom of the crowds

Posted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:00 pm
by Beardawg
fantasy pros now has some consensus projections, not just rankings.

http://www.fantasypros.com/

But they're still not including anything from Razzball! What gives?

Re: 2012 projections - Wisdom of the crowds

Posted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 12:37 pm
by Akston
fantasy pros now has some consensus projections, not just rankings.

http://www.fantasypros.com/

But they're still not including anything from Razzball! What gives?
Awesome. I'm glad that someone else is doing it. This has been a pretty time consuming project for me each year.

Re: 2012 projections - Wisdom of the crowds

Posted: Thu Feb 23, 2012 3:40 pm
by Deltron
This is great, thank you. I really like how you've included walks and strikeouts in the composite projections. Is there a way I can download this into Excel?

Re: 2012 projections - Wisdom of the crowds

Posted: Sat Feb 25, 2012 12:50 pm
by Akston
I added a few more inputs (Zips, Steamer), so now I have 10 and won't be doing anymore.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... TJ2M3ctRnc

And yes, you can download the spreadsheet from google doc if you go under file ---> download as

Re: 2012 projections - Wisdom of the crowds

Posted: Sat Feb 25, 2012 6:23 pm
by micreyes11
good look... i think the Marcel guy got hired by a major league team last year and stopped sharing his projections...

Re: 2012 projections - Wisdom of the crowds

Posted: Sun Feb 26, 2012 3:11 pm
by Spud Johnson
I was looking for Starlin Castro and I could not find him in your rankings? Am I not looking down far enough?

thanks for including walks and Kos! Helps for point leagues.