2012 projections - Wisdom of the crowds

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Akston
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Joined: Fri Dec 31, 2010 7:24 am

2012 projections - Wisdom of the crowds

Postby Akston » Mon Feb 13, 2012 2:39 pm

I have been doing this for a few years, figured I would post it in case anyone finds it valuable.

Essentially, the premise is that no one "expert" projections will be as valuable as if it you aggregate and average the projections from multiple "expert" sources. So I downloaded a bunch of free projections from various non-schmoe sources, averaged them, and poof - a new projection source.

So far, I have 6 sources on this: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc ... VdCVjhMRFE

I still need to add ESPN, CBS, full ZIPS projections, and Marcel (if they ever get released - for some reason I thought I heard that he wasn't doing Marcel's anymore), and update some of the older ones I downloaded. I'll update it periodically over the next month as the projection systems come out.

And I wouldn't put much weight on the listed "value" metric. It's something that I use for my own specific league (which uses OPS and has some other wrinkles), but I kept it in there just so I had another way to order the list beyond just alphabetically or by PA/IP.

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Grey
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Re: 2012 projections - Wisdom of the crowds

Postby Grey » Mon Feb 13, 2012 5:12 pm

Interesting... Thanks for doing this!
Grey Albright
http://razzball.com
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If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.
There's more than one player with the same last name? Then spell out who you're talking about.
Thanks!

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Paper Tiger
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Joined: Mon Apr 27, 2009 11:30 pm

Re: 2012 projections - Wisdom of the crowds

Postby Paper Tiger » Mon Feb 13, 2012 6:11 pm

I'd love to see the finished product. I did a weighted average of multiple projections one season but it was a ton of work. I did, however, win with it.

Beardawg
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Re: 2012 projections - Wisdom of the crowds

Postby Beardawg » Tue Feb 14, 2012 1:37 pm

this website does all of that work for you

http://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/rankings/overall.php

Grey, why aren't they including your rankings?

I like that it lets you select which of their experts you use in the composite.
10 team, keep 9 at auction $, 6x6 OPS,HLD

C - W. Ramos
1 - M. Cabrera
2 - A. Mondessi
S - T. Story
3 - N. Arenado
CI - L. Voit
MI - M. Machado
O - C. Yelich
O - M. Brantley
O - J. Upton
O - A. Meadows
U - G. Hampson
BN - Franmil Reyes
BN - N. Senzel
BN - J. Bauers

SP - C. Carrasco
SP - M. Mikolas
SP - H. Ryu
SP - S. Matz
SP - M. Harvey
SP - M. Strahm

RP - A. Miller
RP - S. Doolittle
RP - J. Hader
RP - S. Dominguez
RP - R. Presley
RP - C. Devenski
RP - T. Rogers
RP - D. Castillo
RP - D. Betances

Akston
Posts: 30
Joined: Fri Dec 31, 2010 7:24 am

Re: 2012 projections - Wisdom of the crowds

Postby Akston » Tue Feb 14, 2012 1:41 pm

this website does all of that work for you

http://www.fantasypros.com/mlb/rankings/overall.php

Grey, why aren't they including your rankings?

I like that it lets you select which of their experts you use in the composite.
That's an awesome site, but it does rankings, not projections. What I did was aggregate and average statistical projections. Though this aggregate ranking is pretty valuable too.

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Grey
Posts: 37667
Joined: Tue Jun 03, 2008 5:51 pm

Re: 2012 projections - Wisdom of the crowds

Postby Grey » Tue Feb 14, 2012 2:15 pm

Yes, his has projections.
Grey Albright
http://razzball.com
Image

If you want me to look at your team, post the team. Don't post a link to another site where the team is.
Have you given me all the info I need to judge your team? The number of teams in the league is a good start for the big overall questions.
Is your league H2H? Roto?
I don't know who's on your waivers. Don't just ask me who you should pick up. Give me names to choose from.
If you only have one team, post your team in your signature with the league parameters.
I don't know every single matchup for next week, so if you want me to choose a player for the following week and you think the matchups are important, tell me who they're facing.
There's more than one player with the same last name? Then spell out who you're talking about.
Thanks!

User avatar
Paper Tiger
Posts: 615
Joined: Mon Apr 27, 2009 11:30 pm

Re: 2012 projections - Wisdom of the crowds

Postby Paper Tiger » Tue Feb 14, 2012 3:03 pm

I don't give props very often but I used your "value" metric for a standard 5x5 roto mock I did last night. It wasn't weighted for a standard league but it did amazingly well overall. More importantly, it allowed me to better focus on players I might otherwise overlook in the later rounds as true value picks. I then took my team and applied my personal projections to them after the fact. My average came out a little low (which is to be expected), but I projected for more runs, homers, ribbies, and steals than any other draft I've done so far (this was my 15th mock of the year).

It wasn't a tremendously competitive draft, but I believe there is real value here. I hate to even ask given the amount of work you've already done (and are still doing), but could you create a value metric specific to standard 5x5 roto? I'd love to take it for a spin on some mocks and see what kind of returns I get.

Akston
Posts: 30
Joined: Fri Dec 31, 2010 7:24 am

Re: 2012 projections - Wisdom of the crowds

Postby Akston » Wed Feb 15, 2012 8:40 am

Not that hard. Just running an average & standard dev calculation vs. batting average instead of OPS.

Next time I post an update (once the full ZIPS projections come out), I'll add a column for "5x5 value"

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Paper Tiger
Posts: 615
Joined: Mon Apr 27, 2009 11:30 pm

Re: 2012 projections - Wisdom of the crowds

Postby Paper Tiger » Wed Feb 15, 2012 10:14 am

Thanks!

Akston
Posts: 30
Joined: Fri Dec 31, 2010 7:24 am

Re: 2012 projections - Wisdom of the crowds

Postby Akston » Fri Feb 17, 2012 8:40 am

edited to include CBS, ESPN, and Davenport projections (now up to 9 sources). And also included the 5x5 "value" metric.

Still need to update ZIPS once Dan gets around to doing the Pirate projections.


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