Liriano - Does he suck?

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MStark
Posts: 151
Joined: Mon Mar 07, 2011 7:20 pm

Re: Liriano - Does he suck?

Postby MStark » Wed Apr 13, 2011 6:05 pm

So is he a buy-low opportunity?
Well, with Pineda, Britton, Minor, Ogando, Latos and T. Wood, and Masterson, I decided I could afford to trade Liriano for Hanrahan. Is that a sell-low? Maybe, but my only closer on that team is Lyon, so for me I think it's worth it. We'll see what the other guy thinks I guess.
ESPN 12 team, All MLB Auction $260 budget
Draft 3/18/14

C: Brian McCann (kept 1 yr @ $5)
IB: Eric Hosmer (through 2016, $17)
2B: Anthony Rendon ($5)
3B: Manny Machado (through 2016, $14)
SS: Ian Desmond (kept 1 yr @ $8)
MI: Jean Segura (through 2017, $10)
CI: Edwin Encarcion (kept 1 yr @ $27)
OF: Bryce Harper (through 2015, $14)
OF: Nick Castellanos ($7)
OF: Ben Revere ($5)
OF: Curtis Granderson, ($8)
OF: Brett Gardner ($4)
Util: Billy Butler ($13)
P: Stephen Strasburg (kept 1 yr @ $14)
P: Michael Pineda ($4)
P: Danny Salazar (through 2017, $14)
P: Aroldis Chapman (kept 1 yr @ $21)
P: Zack Wheeler (through 2017, $14)
P: Grant Balfour ($13)
P: Nate Jones ($10)
P: Yordono Ventura ($8)
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B: Miguel Montero ($4)
B: Gregory Polanco ($3)
B: Denard Span ($1)

MStark
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Re: Liriano - Does he suck?

Postby MStark » Wed Apr 13, 2011 6:10 pm

in a league w/no bench, he's pitched my ERA and WHIP to the bottom of the standings in the first 26th of the season. Yes, I know it's early.

But, our FAAB opens up tonight. Would you drop him for one of these cats at $5?

Ogando
Walden
Holland

Or just suck it up and wait for his luck to improve?
How do you not go get Walden? But I don't think Liriano is the guy to drop. Maybe Gregerson, Beachy, or Madsen....
ESPN 12 team, All MLB Auction $260 budget
Draft 3/18/14

C: Brian McCann (kept 1 yr @ $5)
IB: Eric Hosmer (through 2016, $17)
2B: Anthony Rendon ($5)
3B: Manny Machado (through 2016, $14)
SS: Ian Desmond (kept 1 yr @ $8)
MI: Jean Segura (through 2017, $10)
CI: Edwin Encarcion (kept 1 yr @ $27)
OF: Bryce Harper (through 2015, $14)
OF: Nick Castellanos ($7)
OF: Ben Revere ($5)
OF: Curtis Granderson, ($8)
OF: Brett Gardner ($4)
Util: Billy Butler ($13)
P: Stephen Strasburg (kept 1 yr @ $14)
P: Michael Pineda ($4)
P: Danny Salazar (through 2017, $14)
P: Aroldis Chapman (kept 1 yr @ $21)
P: Zack Wheeler (through 2017, $14)
P: Grant Balfour ($13)
P: Nate Jones ($10)
P: Yordono Ventura ($8)
P: Sonny Gray ($14)
B: Miguel Montero ($4)
B: Gregory Polanco ($3)
B: Denard Span ($1)

HighNOutside
Posts: 23
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Re: Liriano - Does he suck?

Postby HighNOutside » Wed Apr 13, 2011 6:35 pm

Nope. Worst luck ever. At least today.

I watched the game on MLB Network. Liriano was perfect through 3 and looked great. Then in the fourth, Royals batters went nuts, swinging at great pitches in great spots with sick movement. And 8 batters connected for 7 singles and a double. In minutes, 6 runs and an exploded ratio.

Liriano came back to pitch a perfect 5th, then was pulled after giving up his first walk of the game to lead off the 6th. Reliever comes on and gives up a double that was misplayed by the CF and the relay man. Run scored, charged to Liriano.

I don't know if any of you play poker, but it was like having 3 aces cracked by runner-runner over and over again.
So, you're saying that 8 guys in a row got lucky hits, but I see a pattern that is very troubling.

Game 1: retires 6 of the first 7, only 1 hit from the first go through the lineup - final box score, 4.1 IP 4ER
Game 2: retires 9 of the first 12, only 1 hit from the first go through the lineup - final box score 5 IP 4 ER
Game 3: retires 9 of the first 9, no hits from the first go through the lineup - final box score 5 IP, 7 ER

So Liriano's stuff is good enough to be dominating the first time a batter faces him. The second time? Different story entirely.

MStark
Posts: 151
Joined: Mon Mar 07, 2011 7:20 pm

Re: Liriano - Does he suck?

Postby MStark » Wed Apr 13, 2011 7:19 pm

Nope. Worst luck ever. At least today.

I watched the game on MLB Network. Liriano was perfect through 3 and looked great. Then in the fourth, Royals batters went nuts, swinging at great pitches in great spots with sick movement. And 8 batters connected for 7 singles and a double. In minutes, 6 runs and an exploded ratio.

Liriano came back to pitch a perfect 5th, then was pulled after giving up his first walk of the game to lead off the 6th. Reliever comes on and gives up a double that was misplayed by the CF and the relay man. Run scored, charged to Liriano.

I don't know if any of you play poker, but it was like having 3 aces cracked by runner-runner over and over again.
So, you're saying that 8 guys in a row got lucky hits, but I see a pattern that is very troubling.

Game 1: retires 6 of the first 7, only 1 hit from the first go through the lineup - final box score, 4.1 IP 4ER
Game 2: retires 9 of the first 12, only 1 hit from the first go through the lineup - final box score 5 IP 4 ER
Game 3: retires 9 of the first 9, no hits from the first go through the lineup - final box score 5 IP, 7 ER

So Liriano's stuff is good enough to be dominating the first time a batter faces him. The second time? Different story entirely.
all I saw was today's game, and his stuff was filthy. Even when he got hit, it really was bizarre. The Royals were hitting pitches two inches from the dirt and breaking outside. There were two hits that went solidly up the middle, but all the others were doinks that had no business being hit, let alone being hit for base-hits.

Not saying Liriano won't suck ass this year. Just saying that today was freaky bad luck. Try to catch the highlights if you can; you'll see what I mean.
ESPN 12 team, All MLB Auction $260 budget
Draft 3/18/14

C: Brian McCann (kept 1 yr @ $5)
IB: Eric Hosmer (through 2016, $17)
2B: Anthony Rendon ($5)
3B: Manny Machado (through 2016, $14)
SS: Ian Desmond (kept 1 yr @ $8)
MI: Jean Segura (through 2017, $10)
CI: Edwin Encarcion (kept 1 yr @ $27)
OF: Bryce Harper (through 2015, $14)
OF: Nick Castellanos ($7)
OF: Ben Revere ($5)
OF: Curtis Granderson, ($8)
OF: Brett Gardner ($4)
Util: Billy Butler ($13)
P: Stephen Strasburg (kept 1 yr @ $14)
P: Michael Pineda ($4)
P: Danny Salazar (through 2017, $14)
P: Aroldis Chapman (kept 1 yr @ $21)
P: Zack Wheeler (through 2017, $14)
P: Grant Balfour ($13)
P: Nate Jones ($10)
P: Yordono Ventura ($8)
P: Sonny Gray ($14)
B: Miguel Montero ($4)
B: Gregory Polanco ($3)
B: Denard Span ($1)

Bobrob2004
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Re: Liriano - Does he suck?

Postby Bobrob2004 » Wed Apr 13, 2011 7:21 pm

Hey Verlander, Liriano called - He wants you to take your April back.

I'm not ready to hit the panic button on Liriano yet.

Silly String
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Re: Liriano - Does he suck?

Postby Silly String » Wed Apr 13, 2011 8:24 pm

No one has mentioned that his velo is down by 1.5mph and he just isn't getting whiffs this year. That is what concerns me. I am not selling low on him yet though. I just wonder if the Twins were shopping him in spring training for a reason .
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Grey
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Re: Liriano - Does he suck?

Postby Grey » Wed Apr 13, 2011 10:45 pm

Hey Verlander, Liriano called - He wants you to take your April back.

I'm not ready to hit the panic button on Liriano yet.
Ha!
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HighNOutside
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Re: Liriano - Does he suck?

Postby HighNOutside » Thu Apr 14, 2011 8:59 am

Francisco Liriano – 5 IP, 7 ER, 9 baserunners, 4 Ks. Time for our first installment of Point/Counterpoint. Rudy says, “He’s #3 risky pitcher of 2011 and is pitching like he’s trying to prove me correct. He’s now 0-3 with a 9.42 ERA and hasn’t pitched more than 5 innings per start. On the plus side, he only walked one in this game after walking 8 in his first 9 1/3 IP.” Grey says, “He had a terrible fourth inning with a bunch of junky singles. He only threw 78 pitches (53 strikes) into the 6th inning and the last run was given up by Glen Perkins, the pancake king. I’d roll the dice for his next start vs. the O’s, then reevaluate.”
But what do you have to say to my counter-counter-point that he falls apart once batters get to see him for the second time? I put up some numbers earlier in this thread, here's another way to slice it:

Liriano during innings 1-3
0.56 WHIP, 2.0 ERA, 2BB/5K

Liriano during innings 4-5 (including only batter faced in 6th)
3.73 WHIP, 22.94 ERA, 7BB/2K

Edited to add: and if you think the last game was an anomaly, here's the numbers for the last two innings of games 1 & 2:
3.23 WHIP, 17.42 ERA, 5BB/1K

Now I'm no Nate Silver (and he would surely say something about small sample size) but this looks problematic to me. Something ain't right - perhaps he's leaning too hard on one pitch, or is giving up a tell when he's going to throw his fastball, or gets tired very quickly, I don't know what it is. Maybe the numbers 4 and 5 are bad Feng Shui for him? But something is very wrong and batters are jumping all over it.

As far as recommendations go, no I wouldn't drop him or trade him for 10 cents on the dollar. Yet. But I'm sure going to be reluctant to start him until he can get through the fourth inning occasionally.

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Falcon
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Re: Liriano - Does he suck?

Postby Falcon » Thu Apr 14, 2011 10:18 am

I have benched him since that first start. I agree he is looking better now - that Royals game was tough to swallow even though i benched him.

He will turn it around, definitely a buy low candidate. I am more worried about injury than performance.

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Larkfest
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Re: Liriano - Does he suck?

Postby Larkfest » Fri Apr 15, 2011 8:01 am

CPOMAR,

Suck it up...Liriano will come around....its still early and he was extremely unlucky against the Royals...No body really squared up the ball on him and his walks are on the down swing from his first start...(I suppose there was really no way to go but down from there). Do not drop him for one of those Schmohawks. Stay the course and you will be rewarded with some good starts. But If Walden is available in your league i would grab him and dump a non critical player...just not Liriano
in a league w/no bench, he's pitched my ERA and WHIP to the bottom of the standings in the first 26th of the season. Yes, I know it's early.

But, our FAAB opens up tonight. Would you drop him for one of these cats at $5?

Ogando
Walden
Holland

Or just suck it up and wait for his luck to improve?
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C - W.Ramos
1B - P. Goldschmidt
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SS - J.Polanco
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