Monster Trade #2

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Monster Trade #2

Postby JoeO99 » Fri Jun 20, 2008 9:33 am

The deal i mentioned i was countering with in the previous thread has been accepted.

I get Wright, Helton, Aviles, and Haren


Miggy, A-Gonz, Gomez, and Maddux

I figure---
Huge SP upgrade, and i need W's and K's bad. Just hope Haren doesn't regress post all star again.

I like Wright better than Miggy, although i buy a huge second half from Miggy, the possibility it doesn't happen compared to Wright's sure production does it for me.

I like Aviles over Gomez, i needed a SS big time with Peralta in my lineup sucking the life out of my AVG, and although i missed the boat on picking him up, i hope Aviles can be a consistent producer. I don't like Gomez and wanted to trade him while he still had value. His AVG is gonna continue to dip IMO and even the steals are down.

I'm losing out obviously on the A-Gonz VS Helton part, but although i think he's a great hitter, now's probably the time to sell on Gonzalez. I also have Swisher, and i'm gonna pick up LaRoche for Peralta. Surely Swish, Helton or LaRoche will start swinging a hot bat soon? Swish is already showing signs of life.

Opinions would be appreciated on this blockbuster.

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Re: Monster Trade #2

Postby peter » Fri Jun 20, 2008 11:02 am

JoeO99 wrote:I get Wright, Helton, Aviles, and Haren


Miggy, A-Gonz, Gomez, and Maddux

Honestly, my gut reaction is that I don't love the trade for you. You're paying for some risk, here.

Miggy for Wright is largely a push, but a benefit for you if you have a need for speed.

I guess Aviles for Gomez is ok for this year, because you were desperate for a SS. The only potential problem I see there is if, for some reason, Aviles starts slumping, he'll lose playing time. The Twins are going to keep Gomez in no matter what.

I like that you're moving A-Gonz right now. I think the conventional wisdom around here is that he's a "sell" guy. But I think you could have tried to do a little better than Konerko. e.g., Gomez and A-Gonz could've potentially gotten you Konerko + someone better than Aviles? Just a thought...

With regard to the SP component.. yeah, let's hope that Haren doesn't tail-off like he did last year. The knock on Haren is that he falls apart in the 2nd half. But is that true? I looked at his #s for the last three years, and found that 2007 was the first time that there was a huge disparity between his 1st and 2nd halves. In 2006, his ERA went up ~0.50 after the ASB. In 2005, his ERA actually went down 0.25 after the ASB. Granted, there are a lot of other factors (cumulative IP from earlier in the season, previous year) that I can't speak to. I'm not saying that last year was necessarily a fluke, just that I'm not ready to entirely resign the guy to being a 2nd half stinker - just inconsistent/unproven and, thus, risky. Unlike Maddux, who will continue doing his unsexy thing for another 10-15 yrs. If Haren stays consistent, this was good for you. If not, this was bad. No, not particularly insightful. But, fuck it, dude, I'm going bowling.

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