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There are so many Tommy Boy quotes that I can manipulate to start this post, so you choose which one…

a) I can get a good look at Performance by sticking my head up BABIP’s a**, but I’d rather take xBABIP’s word for it.

b) I write fantasy baseball posts for the American working man, because that’s who I am and that’s who I care about.

c)  You: Prince Fielder, Hmmmm, he should get better.”

      Me: “This guy is batting .231, which is actually backed up because of the gross groundball rate (11+% jump) and hitting into the shift with a sense of urgency, and all you can say is, Hmmmm, he should get better?”

d) The season is drivin’ along, la-de-da, woo. And you have Justin Morneau batting .338. And then you look at your team. Tires go EEEEEEEEE! Whoa, that was close.

Now let’s see what happens if you have Prince Fielder on your team… You’re drivin’ along, Tires go EEEEEEEE! I CAN’T STOP! “Oh my God, I’m burning alive! And this isn’t a fire sale! No! I can’t feel my legs!” Here comes the meat wagon. And the medic gets out and says, “Oh my God”. New guy’s around the corner puking his guts out…

…Whichever quote you go with, if you own Fielder then consider yourself the new guy puking his guts out. This post is the meat wagon.

Prior to the season, I gave some face to BABIP by looking at power and speed scores in conjunction with their balls in play data. Now it’s time to look at whose been lucky and vice versa.

Using the same updated xBABIP formula, here are a few guys within the top-35 likely to drop-off from a BABIP perspective: Tyler Flowers, Justin Upton, Alexei Ramirez, Jarrod Saltalamacchia and perhaps even Eric Hosmer, Yasiel Puig, Torii Hunter, Xander Bogaerts and naturally Charlie Blackmon, although he doesn’t fall into my red flag category. He’s only 27 points above his xBABIP. Colorado is probably the main effect here, but he’s also got a solid power-speed combo. Let’s look at a few other Colorado BABIPs vs. xBABIPs:

  1. Charlie Blackmon: .336 BABIP vs. .309 xBABIP 42nd highest BABIP differential
  2. Nolan Arenado: .325 BABIP vs. .303 xBABIP = 47th highest BABIP differential
  3. Troy Tulowitzki: .402 BABIP vs. .363 xBABIP = 27th highest BABIP differential
  4. Carlos Gonzalez: .308 BABIP vs. .313 xBABIP (bada$$) meaning we can actually expect a small rebound!
  5. Justin Morneau: .333 BABIP vs. .299 xBABIP = 33rd highest BABIP differential

To back-up Blackmon’s success, along with Brian Dozier, he made it not too far down my ‘BABIP with Face’ Score List prior to the season. I do know what I’m talking about.

On the other side of the equation, here are guys within the top-30 BABIP differentials likely to rebound:

C- Carlos Santana

1B- Allen Craig

2B- Jedd Gyorko

3B- Nick Castellanos

SS- Elvis Andrus

MI- Brian Dozier, which is awesome considering the counting stats he’s been providing (on pace for 40hr/55sb at the moment)

CI- Chase Headley

OF- Allen Craig

A few other rebounds worth noting:

One of my favs, Freddie Freeman, actually has a xBABIP approaching .400 again, so we can actually expect a rebound! Jose Reyes and Jason Kipnis are two middle infielders likely to rebound, when and if healthy. Mike Moustakas, Brad Miller, Dan Uggla and Khris Davis are also on this list, but I can’t trust them due to their contact and/or balls in play issues.

But where or where is Prince Fielder  on this list? At the time I prepared the below matrix (5/9), Prince Fielder’s actual BABIP is .250. His expected (x)BABIP is .318, however even the xBABIP formula has its limitations. It only takes into account the Balls In Play breakdown (% of balls hit on the ground/in the air/over the fence/etc.) and not how hard balls are hit or a hitter’s speed. While Prince Fielder is #40 of 265 on my likely to rebound list, he winds up at #305 of 439 on Jeff Zimmerman’s April xBABIP list that incorporates hard hit% and speed scores (I believe the hard hit% isn’t public knowledge). It’s also worth noting that my list doesn’t involve defensive shifts and the effect it has on xBABIP: Jeff Zimmerman also noted that Prince Fielder has hit into the most infield shifts (about a 5.5 shift vs. no shift ratio). Seriously, the effect is real and I would field(er) offers for him.

I’m not going to stamp a guarantee on this post to make you feel all warm and fuzzy inside. If you want me to take a dump in a box and mark it guaranteed, I will. I got spare time. But for now, for your fantasy team’s sake, for your daughter’s sake, ya might wanna think about buying a quality product from the below list (or anyone in the Rockies lineup), and keep the above contingencies in mind. The following list starts with the highest BABIP differential (most likely to drop off) all the way to the other side of the spectrum (80 plate appearances as the qualifier). The Rockies noted above are bolded:

Name BB/K BABIP xBABIP xBABIPdiff GB/FB LD% IFFB% HR/FB Spd Swing% Ct% SwStr%
Tyler Flowers 0.2 0.492 0.3730 0.1190 2.62 26.60% 0.00% 7.70% 2.1 50.50% 70.10% 15.10%
Lonnie Chisenhall 0.27 0.44 0.3214 0.1186 0.64 28.00% 9.10% 0.00% 5.3 50.00% 82.70% 8.90%
Justin Upton 0.3 0.415 0.3242 0.0908 0.76 21.60% 6.10% 27.30% 6.4 49.60% 69.50% 15.00%
Alexei Ramirez 0.39 0.364 0.2751 0.0889 1.5 15.30% 23.80% 9.50% 6 53.60% 86.30% 7.40%
Marlon Byrd 0.17 0.419 0.3353 0.0837 1.06 24.40% 9.10% 12.10% 1.9 57.10% 72.50% 15.40%
Collin Cowgill 0.32 0.41 0.3265 0.0835 1.23 27.50% 23.10% 15.40% 4.5 42.80% 76.50% 10.00%
Derek Norris 1.1 0.421 0.3383 0.0827 1.4 18.60% 10.00% 10.00% 2.7 37.10% 79.80% 7.50%
Brandon Barnes 0.39 0.464 0.3818 0.0822 1.6 29.10% 6.70% 0.00% 7 51.60% 72.00% 13.80%
Eric Hosmer 0.5 0.356 0.2784 0.0776 1.54 16.10% 10.30% 2.60% 1.6 48.90% 82.90% 8.20%
Casey McGehee 0.57 0.387 0.3117 0.0753 1.44 21.70% 11.80% 0.00% 1.8 39.20% 83.00% 6.80%
Jarrod Saltalamacchia 0.49 0.377 0.3047 0.0723 0.59 19.40% 8.80% 17.60% 1.4 47.70% 65.20% 17.20%
Yasiel Puig 0.56 0.376 0.3058 0.0702 1.69 12.40% 3.40% 13.80% 5.7 47.70% 72.80% 12.00%
Juan Lagares 0.16 0.4 0.3316 0.0684 0.78 21.30% 11.10% 3.70% 4.9 46.50% 77.80% 10.20%
Juan Francisco 0.43 0.389 0.3287 0.0603 0.88 22.00% 5.90% 29.40% 4.5 43.70% 71.20% 12.20%
Andrew McCutchen 1 0.369 0.3149 0.0541 1.24 22.40% 13.50% 10.80% 6.2 43.20% 78.10% 9.30%
Matt Adams 0.1 0.404 0.3500 0.0540 1.15 29.70% 12.10% 6.10% 2.3 51.60% 79.80% 10.30%
Brandon Phillips 0.22 0.333 0.2799 0.0531 1.1 21.20% 23.10% 5.10% 1.8 56.60% 75.90% 13.40%
Leonys Martin 0.25 0.369 0.3177 0.0513 2.05 21.00% 23.80% 4.80% 7.7 50.00% 73.70% 12.80%
Mike Napoli 0.7 0.368 0.3220 0.0460 1.16 17.30% 9.70% 16.10% 1 39.40% 77.00% 8.80%
John Jaso 0.5 0.367 0.3215 0.0455 0.81 24.00% 9.50% 4.80% 5.4 37.00% 76.70% 8.60%
Torii Hunter 0.18 0.345 0.3013 0.0437 0.83 18.90% 10.00% 10.00% 2.8 54.00% 78.80% 11.50%
Rajai Davis 0.28 0.37 0.3269 0.0431 1.35 15.30% 15.40% 7.70% 6.9 48.00% 81.90% 8.40%
Chris Owings 0.35 0.375 0.3325 0.0425 2.1 22.50% 10.00% 5.00% 5.8 48.70% 78.30% 10.50%
Xander Bogaerts 0.53 0.367 0.3255 0.0415 1.03 23.80% 10.00% 3.30% 2 39.90% 73.50% 10.40%
Chris Heisey 0.27 0.308 0.2670 0.0410 1.29 25.00% 41.20% 5.90% 6.1 51.70% 79.30% 10.60%
Mike Trout 0.45 0.365 0.3249 0.0401 0.97 19.80% 5.40% 16.20% 7.5 40.30% 79.00% 8.30%
Troy Tulowitzki 1.67 0.402 0.3625 0.0395 1.24 26.70% 9.10% 27.30% 3.5 41.90% 82.50% 7.00%
Jason Kubel 0.29 0.414 0.3755 0.0385 0.96 31.00% 4.00% 4.00% 2.9 41.80% 71.40% 11.50%
Juan Uribe 0.26 0.356 0.3179 0.0381 1.34 17.60% 13.20% 10.50% 1.3 56.50% 81.00% 10.40%
Dayan Viciedo 0.48 0.363 0.3261 0.0369 1.3 18.30% 12.10% 6.10% 3 49.10% 79.20% 10.00%
Bryce Harper 0.38 0.377 0.3406 0.0364 1.25 22.40% 5.00% 5.00% 4.5 49.90% 75.70% 12.00%
Matt Holliday 0.78 0.33 0.2943 0.0357 1.32 18.50% 15.80% 5.30% 1.9 49.70% 79.70% 10.00%
Justin Morneau 0.24 0.333 0.2982 0.0348 1.53 20.90% 16.70% 19.40% 2.5 58.10% 82.60% 10.00%
Chris Colabello 0.21 0.36 0.3262 0.0338 2 16.70% 4.00% 16.00% 1.8 46.30% 70.30% 13.70%
Jackie Bradley Jr 0.5 0.309 0.2757 0.0333 1.5 15.40% 13.60% 0.00% 6.8 38.80% 73.30% 10.20%
Danny Espinosa 0.13 0.333 0.2999 0.0331 1.13 16.40% 12.50% 16.70% 6.2 52.20% 66.10% 17.30%
Lucas Duda 0.39 0.339 0.3085 0.0305 0.83 16.70% 10.00% 13.30% 2 42.30% 72.90% 11.30%
Paul Goldschmidt 0.3 0.398 0.3693 0.0287 1.59 26.70% 2.90% 20.60% 3.6 41.90% 81.30% 7.70%
Shin-Soo Choo 0.96 0.419 0.3906 0.0284 1.68 23.40% 0.00% 13.60% 4.6 37.70% 82.70% 6.40%
Brandon Crawford 0.59 0.308 0.2801 0.0279 1.09 16.30% 12.50% 9.40% 4.8 48.80% 78.90% 10.20%
Adam Dunn 0.69 0.344 0.3163 0.0277 0.96 19.70% 3.70% 18.50% 2.3 37.90% 71.90% 10.00%
Charlie Blackmon 0.64 0.336 0.3085 0.0275 1.23 19.70% 15.90% 15.90% 7.3 49.60% 91.90% 4.40%
Yangervis Solarte 1 0.341 0.3150 0.0260 1.03 19.80% 5.90% 2.90% 0.8 42.90% 89.00% 4.70%
Jayson Werth 0.6 0.364 0.3381 0.0259 1 22.30% 10.00% 10.00% 4.1 38.30% 83.30% 6.50%
Colby Rasmus 0.16 0.278 0.2538 0.0242 0.67 13.60% 14.30% 21.40% 1.8 48.10% 67.60% 15.50%
George Springer 0.21 0.347 0.3230 0.0240 1.44 12.00% 16.70% 5.60% 1.8 53.20% 66.10% 17.40%
Nolan Arenado 0.39 0.325 0.3024 0.0226 1 22.10% 19.60% 11.80% 2.5 54.30% 83.60% 8.50%
Seth Smith 0.7 0.352 0.3296 0.0224 1.5 17.80% 0.00% 8.30% 2.7 40.80% 78.20% 8.30%
Jonathan Schoop 0.06 0.308 0.2861 0.0219 1.22 11.80% 14.80% 11.10% 1.5 57.60% 72.60% 15.40%
Howie Kendrick 0.52 0.349 0.3286 0.0204 3.74 16.70% 0.00% 10.50% 7 47.60% 78.40% 10.10%
Conor Gillaspie 0.47 0.382 0.3628 0.0192 1 33.30% 11.10% 0.00% 1.3 53.90% 83.80% 8.50%
Jimmy Rollins 0.65 0.301 0.2826 0.0184 1 20.80% 15.80% 7.90% 6.5 40.50% 85.60% 5.90%
Giancarlo Stanton 0.47 0.354 0.3357 0.0183 0.97 21.50% 13.50% 29.70% 4.2 45.80% 69.90% 13.00%
Melky Cabrera 0.23 0.37 0.3533 0.0167 1.69 24.80% 5.70% 17.10% 5.8 45.80% 84.20% 7.10%
Junior Lake 0.1 0.391 0.3753 0.0157 1.92 17.40% 0.00% 23.10% 7.5 55.70% 58.10% 22.20%
Alex Rios 0.43 0.36 0.3445 0.0155 1.35 23.00% 5.40% 5.40% 5.1 42.60% 86.60% 5.40%
Starling Marte 0.25 0.376 0.3613 0.0147 2.09 23.60% 9.10% 9.10% 8.2 47.10% 71.40% 13.40%
Chase Utley 0.63 0.353 0.3386 0.0144 1.35 23.80% 2.90% 8.80% 2.7 43.30% 83.90% 6.40%
Ian Kinsler 0.55 0.319 0.3059 0.0131 1.24 19.70% 16.70% 4.80% 4.3 41.90% 91.00% 3.40%
Welington Castillo 0.2 0.318 0.3050 0.0130 0.58 18.60% 8.30% 11.10% 0.7 44.10% 74.70% 10.60%
Chris Iannetta 0.94 0.25 0.2372 0.0128 0.68 13.00% 14.30% 7.10% 3.7 46.30% 72.80% 12.10%
Dee Gordon 0.27 0.396 0.3834 0.0126 3.22 24.80% 11.10% 5.60% 8.9 43.50% 88.80% 4.70%
Adam Jones 0.13 0.32 0.3076 0.0124 1.26 15.70% 10.50% 7.90% 6 55.40% 74.70% 13.70%
Hunter Pence 0.76 0.289 0.2772 0.0118 1.58 15.50% 15.80% 5.30% 7.4 46.50% 76.50% 10.50%
Nelson Cruz 0.4 0.313 0.3020 0.0110 1.14 16.30% 8.30% 25.00% 2.4 49.00% 75.40% 12.20%
Mike Aviles 0.57 0.35 0.3394 0.0106 1.19 24.60% 19.00% 4.80% 5.1 43.20% 88.30% 4.70%
Marcell Ozuna 0.3 0.309 0.2988 0.0102 1.64 13.90% 12.10% 15.20% 1.3 48.00% 67.50% 15.50%
Michael Bourn 0.18 0.327 0.3170 0.0100 2.15 19.60% 0.00% 0.00% 5.7 43.80% 81.70% 8.50%
Kurt Suzuki 1.5 0.306 0.2968 0.0092 1.06 22.40% 15.60% 3.10% 0.5 35.20% 93.60% 2.20%
Anthony Rendon 0.31 0.33 0.3210 0.0090 0.8 21.40% 4.10% 10.20% 6.1 42.70% 85.30% 6.20%
Christian Yelich 0.4 0.354 0.3459 0.0081 3.39 18.60% 0.00% 11.10% 7.3 43.10% 83.30% 6.70%
Joe Mauer 0.63 0.381 0.3730 0.0080 3.43 27.10% 0.00% 14.30% 3.6 38.50% 85.10% 5.60%
Brandon Belt 0.21 0.305 0.2976 0.0074 1 18.70% 13.50% 24.30% 4.2 53.50% 69.30% 16.00%
Michael Morse 0.28 0.316 0.3089 0.0071 1.38 17.90% 13.80% 27.60% 1.3 53.00% 77.60% 11.10%
Nick Markakis 0.93 0.322 0.3150 0.0070 1.19 21.70% 9.30% 4.70% 4 43.50% 91.50% 3.70%
Austin Jackson 0.83 0.318 0.3110 0.0070 0.68 20.70% 4.90% 4.90% 7.1 40.60% 84.50% 6.30%
Josh Reddick 0.3 0.274 0.2673 0.0067 1.1 14.90% 13.30% 3.30% 6.2 48.70% 78.10% 10.60%
Carlos Gomez 0.31 0.351 0.3447 0.0063 0.8 23.70% 7.30% 19.50% 6.5 55.10% 70.80% 15.80%
David Wright 0.24 0.352 0.3459 0.0061 1.23 26.40% 2.90% 2.90% 2.9 44.80% 79.50% 8.90%
Emilio Bonifacio 0.4 0.384 0.3780 0.0060 3.24 23.40% 0.00% 0.00% 5.4 44.10% 81.40% 8.00%
Abraham Almonte 0.15 0.308 0.3020 0.0060 1.48 16.10% 9.50% 4.80% 6.2 39.70% 73.00% 10.70%
Adam LaRoche 0.83 0.378 0.3721 0.0059 0.9 32.20% 6.50% 16.10% 1.1 37.80% 80.90% 7.10%
Desmond Jennings 0.53 0.319 0.3138 0.0052 1.75 18.90% 10.70% 14.30% 6.8 38.50% 81.50% 7.30%
Jose Bautista 1.42 0.304 0.2988 0.0052 0.95 18.80% 16.70% 21.40% 2.5 34.90% 79.30% 7.30%
Alex Gordon 0.45 0.284 0.2797 0.0043 1.26 11.80% 7.00% 2.30% 2.5 48.30% 83.20% 8.40%
Jonathan Lucroy 0.87 0.33 0.3258 0.0042 1.48 18.80% 6.10% 3.00% 1.8 43.00% 89.20% 4.80%
Matt Wieters 0.33 0.365 0.3610 0.0040 0.53 30.40% 8.30% 13.90% 1.6 51.00% 84.00% 7.80%
Garrett Jones 0.32 0.317 0.3145 0.0025 0.89 16.30% 7.90% 13.20% 1 48.00% 79.10% 10.10%
Drew Stubbs 0.32 0.4 0.3977 0.0023 1.79 25.00% 0.00% 14.30% 5.5 40.00% 75.00% 10.00%
J.J. Hardy 0.25 0.299 0.2969 0.0021 0.88 22.10% 12.50% 0.00% 0.9 42.40% 87.60% 5.30%
Josh Donaldson 0.49 0.298 0.2962 0.0018 1.04 13.50% 4.30% 14.90% 3.4 43.60% 77.60% 9.50%
DJ LeMahieu 0.67 0.345 0.3434 0.0016 2.78 21.80% 0.00% 0.00% 4.8 46.30% 85.70% 5.90%
Evan Gattis 0.13 0.27 0.2686 0.0014 1.03 10.00% 12.90% 22.60% 0.1 53.10% 70.60% 15.10%
Carlos Ruiz 1.07 0.338 0.3367 0.0013 1.31 25.90% 15.40% 3.80% 4.7 36.60% 83.50% 5.90%
Brett Gardner 0.29 0.385 0.3851 -0.0001 2 23.10% 10.00% 5.00% 6 38.70% 83.50% 6.30%
Norichika Aoki 0.58 0.321 0.3214 -0.0004 3.29 17.40% 14.30% 0.00% 6 44.10% 89.00% 4.70%
James Loney 1.17 0.339 0.3395 -0.0005 1.13 26.40% 2.60% 2.60% 2.6 41.90% 89.80% 4.20%
Matt Joyce 1 0.324 0.3247 -0.0007 1.14 21.10% 14.30% 7.10% 2.2 38.20% 80.60% 7.10%
Josmil Pinto 0.72 0.254 0.2561 -0.0021 1.18 10.30% 21.40% 17.90% 1.4 41.00% 78.70% 8.70%
Jacoby Ellsbury 0.59 0.376 0.3784 -0.0024 1.88 28.70% 8.00% 4.00% 7.6 42.90% 84.10% 6.50%
Sam Fuld 0.35 0.281 0.2839 -0.0029 1.04 17.20% 11.50% 3.80% 7.9 44.90% 81.00% 8.40%
Mitch Moreland 0.26 0.357 0.3601 -0.0031 1.29 31.60% 11.80% 5.90% 3.5 46.10% 73.70% 12.00%
Aaron Hill 0.39 0.321 0.3242 -0.0032 0.71 26.80% 14.60% 6.30% 4.4 43.60% 82.40% 7.30%
Angel Pagan 0.42 0.352 0.3554 -0.0034 1.39 28.80% 6.10% 9.10% 4.1 45.30% 87.70% 5.30%
Jonathan Villar 0.25 0.299 0.3027 -0.0037 1.77 11.60% 0.00% 22.70% 8.5 46.80% 68.90% 13.60%
Robinson Chirinos 0.21 0.286 0.2904 -0.0044 1.26 15.70% 10.50% 10.50% 0.9 44.30% 80.70% 8.30%
Adeiny Hechavarria 0.36 0.333 0.3376 -0.0046 2.43 22.50% 4.30% 0.00% 5.5 51.00% 83.30% 8.70%
Carlos Gonzalez 0.3 0.308 0.3128 -0.0048 1.71 16.40% 5.90% 20.60% 5.9 52.80% 76.40% 12.00%
Will Venable 0.22 0.272 0.2775 -0.0055 1.56 16.90% 16.00% 0.00% 4 48.90% 70.50% 14.30%
Matt Kemp 0.33 0.344 0.3498 -0.0058 1.57 20.60% 0.00% 19.00% 3.7 47.20% 70.10% 14.30%
Daniel Murphy 0.39 0.348 0.3544 -0.0064 1.5 30.40% 12.50% 3.10% 6.6 45.50% 90.20% 4.40%
Mark Reynolds 0.28 0.271 0.2777 -0.0067 1.04 14.50% 21.70% 30.40% 3.5 49.60% 66.10% 16.80%
Steve Lombardozzi 0 0.356 0.3627 -0.0067 1.63 27.60% 12.50% 0.00% 5.7 50.60% 89.20% 5.00%
Adrian Gonzalez 0.55 0.281 0.2878 -0.0068 1.05 16.20% 9.30% 20.90% 3.1 54.30% 78.40% 11.20%
Ben Zobrist 1.11 0.286 0.2931 -0.0071 1.47 17.50% 18.40% 7.90% 4.2 39.30% 83.60% 6.10%
Jose Tabata 0.19 0.311 0.3221 -0.0111 2.92 20.30% 0.00% 0.00% 3.2 46.40% 80.30% 8.70%
Starlin Castro 0.37 0.296 0.3072 -0.0112 1.47 21.20% 13.90% 13.90% 2.5 48.60% 82.30% 8.50%
Yoenis Cespedes 0.68 0.271 0.2824 -0.0114 0.63 14.30% 8.30% 12.50% 3.2 49.40% 81.60% 8.70%
Derek Jeter 0.45 0.321 0.3331 -0.0121 2.4 19.00% 5.00% 5.00% 0.7 48.90% 83.00% 8.20%
Nick Punto 0.41 0.283 0.2951 -0.0121 1.06 22.20% 11.80% 0.00% 3.5 44.80% 79.10% 9.30%
Salvador Perez 0.69 0.26 0.2722 -0.0122 1.29 18.70% 21.10% 7.90% 2.5 50.90% 86.10% 6.80%
Albert Pujols 0.8 0.266 0.2783 -0.0123 1.32 14.30% 18.20% 22.70% 3.2 46.70% 82.40% 8.00%
A.J. Pollock 0.32 0.301 0.3133 -0.0123 1.19 10.50% 9.70% 9.70% 4.6 42.50% 79.00% 8.60%
Ryan Braun 0.39 0.333 0.3458 -0.0128 0.9 19.70% 3.30% 20.00% 6 48.50% 75.60% 10.20%
Trevor Plouffe 0.46 0.344 0.3568 -0.0128 1.09 25.80% 0.00% 3.00% 3.4 38.30% 77.50% 8.60%
Brandon Moss 0.48 0.293 0.3058 -0.0128 0.68 19.80% 7.30% 12.20% 4.4 51.50% 75.30% 12.20%
Omar Infante 0.91 0.278 0.2915 -0.0135 0.77 23.90% 21.30% 4.30% 5.5 41.20% 89.50% 4.30%
Scooter Gennett 0.35 0.319 0.3328 -0.0138 1.31 22.90% 6.30% 6.30% 4.7 50.00% 84.70% 7.60%
Ben Revere 0.13 0.324 0.3382 -0.0142 6.18 21.80% 9.10% 0.00% 8.5 41.70% 90.90% 3.70%
Ian Desmond 0.26 0.286 0.3002 -0.0142 1.55 11.60% 15.20% 12.10% 3.3 52.80% 70.10% 15.50%
Alcides Escobar 0.45 0.32 0.3348 -0.0148 1.39 22.10% 16.10% 3.20% 6.1 49.20% 83.30% 7.90%
Jose Lobaton 0.37 0.327 0.3424 -0.0154 1.16 22.60% 0.00% 5.30% 0.6 46.40% 77.10% 10.40%
Ryan Ludwick 0.39 0.329 0.3447 -0.0157 1.04 23.60% 7.40% 7.40% 0.3 51.70% 72.40% 13.80%
Ike Davis 0.88 0.276 0.2917 -0.0157 1.13 18.30% 17.40% 8.70% 2.4 39.80% 82.50% 6.90%
Evan Longoria 0.34 0.317 0.3334 -0.0164 1.47 22.20% 11.80% 11.80% 2.8 44.60% 79.60% 9.10%
Jed Lowrie 1.31 0.288 0.3045 -0.0165 0.56 23.20% 9.10% 3.60% 1.6 47.90% 90.10% 4.70%
Yunel Escobar 0.71 0.269 0.2860 -0.0170 1.47 15.20% 11.10% 5.60% 0.1 43.90% 84.70% 6.20%
A.J. Pierzynski 0.22 0.32 0.3371 -0.0171 1.77 20.80% 0.00% 13.60% 1.5 56.40% 80.50% 10.50%
Edwin Encarnacion 0.61 0.284 0.3011 -0.0171 0.76 16.70% 3.90% 11.80% 6.2 42.80% 84.20% 7.00%
Dustin Ackley 0.5 0.289 0.3068 -0.0178 1.21 19.50% 10.70% 3.60% 5 41.30% 80.10% 7.80%
Miguel Cabrera 0.33 0.323 0.3409 -0.0179 1.32 21.00% 2.90% 11.80% 1.3 50.30% 83.20% 8.20%
Robinson Cano 0.6 0.33 0.3489 -0.0189 2.58 19.80% 0.00% 3.80% 4.3 53.40% 83.50% 7.90%
Ryan Hanigan 0.6 0.3 0.3195 -0.0195 1.22 19.00% 8.70% 13.00% 0.2 36.90% 81.10% 6.90%
Marcus Semien 0.29 0.3 0.3195 -0.0195 1.09 19.80% 11.40% 8.60% 6.6 40.80% 75.60% 9.40%
Carlos Beltran 0.38 0.25 0.2701 -0.0201 0.89 14.40% 13.60% 11.40% 3 47.70% 87.60% 5.70%
Justin Smoak 0.3 0.299 0.3214 -0.0224 1.09 19.80% 8.60% 11.40% 2.1 45.40% 74.50% 11.20%
Wil Myers 0.38 0.309 0.3324 -0.0234 1.32 14.90% 10.80% 10.80% 2.2 45.60% 75.60% 10.80%
Victor Martinez 2.4 0.294 0.3174 -0.0234 1.02 22.00% 7.10% 16.70% 1.6 43.60% 93.10% 2.80%
David Ortiz 0.79 0.275 0.2996 -0.0246 0.86 17.50% 9.30% 14.00% 0.7 42.10% 81.30% 7.50%
Chris Davis 0.52 0.333 0.3582 -0.0252 0.9 28.30% 5.00% 10.00% 4.9 48.50% 67.20% 15.70%
Chris Johnson 0.13 0.322 0.3482 -0.0262 1.25 28.40% 3.60% 3.60% 0.1 58.60% 76.70% 13.30%
Hanley Ramirez 0.54 0.296 0.3225 -0.0265 1.28 18.80% 10.00% 10.00% 3.5 50.00% 78.80% 10.00%
Nate Schierholtz 0.27 0.256 0.2825 -0.0265 0.85 22.20% 14.70% 0.00% 5.5 52.70% 78.00% 10.70%
Jonny Gomes 0.48 0.277 0.3036 -0.0266 0.5 22.00% 15.40% 11.50% 1.1 37.30% 73.80% 9.90%
Yadier Molina 0.29 0.33 0.3567 -0.0267 1.58 27.30% 3.20% 12.90% 0.9 50.50% 85.20% 7.20%
Kyle Seager 0.54 0.267 0.2939 -0.0269 1.05 16.50% 5.40% 13.50% 2.2 41.50% 81.70% 7.20%
Dioner Navarro 0.75 0.312 0.3390 -0.0270 1.12 23.40% 2.90% 2.90% 3.6 43.30% 88.80% 4.80%
Coco Crisp 0.83 0.286 0.3132 -0.0272 1.1 21.80% 10.30% 10.30% 7 40.30% 84.60% 6.20%
Brandon Hicks 0.39 0.239 0.2662 -0.0272 0.48 11.50% 9.70% 19.40% 2 45.80% 60.60% 18.10%
Donnie Murphy 0.43 0.275 0.3026 -0.0276 1.37 13.50% 10.50% 5.30% 0.9 49.20% 74.80% 12.10%
Domonic Brown 0.42 0.275 0.3034 -0.0284 1.85 16.30% 7.40% 3.70% 4 51.80% 76.60% 12.20%
Alex Avila 0.43 0.361 0.3910 -0.0300 1.5 34.20% 10.00% 20.00% 2.5 40.40% 65.70% 13.60%
Ryan Flaherty 0.38 0.273 0.3043 -0.0313 2 22.20% 14.30% 0.00% 2.2 46.10% 80.00% 9.20%
Michael Choice 0.86 0.268 0.3000 -0.0320 1.67 17.20% 11.10% 11.10% 2.8 39.20% 78.10% 8.20%
David Murphy 1.18 0.284 0.3164 -0.0324 1.61 18.90% 10.70% 7.10% 3.8 43.50% 85.10% 5.70%
Billy Butler 0.41 0.29 0.3231 -0.0331 2.57 20.20% 9.50% 4.80% 1 43.30% 85.40% 6.80%
Grady Sizemore 0.5 0.274 0.3074 -0.0334 1.14 17.30% 6.90% 6.90% 5.5 44.30% 78.80% 9.40%
B.J. Upton 0.37 0.291 0.3250 -0.0340 1.28 17.50% 10.30% 6.90% 6.4 48.20% 66.80% 15.90%
Adam Eaton 0.69 0.317 0.3516 -0.0346 3.87 9.90% 0.00% 6.70% 5.7 43.50% 90.10% 4.10%
Miguel Montero 1.13 0.288 0.3228 -0.0348 1.1 20.40% 4.90% 9.80% 0.8 47.10% 84.10% 7.30%
Asdrubal Cabrera 0.4 0.283 0.3183 -0.0353 1 21.60% 10.50% 5.30% 5.6 50.40% 83.10% 8.20%
Martin Prado 0.33 0.293 0.3285 -0.0355 2.18 23.30% 21.40% 0.00% 4.4 38.50% 89.00% 4.20%
Yan Gomes 0.17 0.318 0.3541 -0.0361 1.12 24.30% 0.00% 16.00% 3.2 46.40% 76.40% 10.40%
Alfonso Soriano 0.15 0.275 0.3112 -0.0362 0.8 17.70% 2.30% 11.40% 1.6 51.50% 73.60% 13.50%
Mark Teixeira 0.67 0.273 0.3095 -0.0365 1.17 20.40% 22.20% 27.80% 1.1 41.70% 80.20% 7.80%
Luis Valbuena 0.77 0.286 0.3239 -0.0379 0.54 29.80% 11.50% 3.80% 3.4 39.60% 83.80% 5.60%
Anthony Rizzo 1.05 0.308 0.3461 -0.0381 1.31 23.70% 3.10% 21.90% 3.8 39.40% 78.20% 8.30%
Denard Span 0.57 0.283 0.3216 -0.0386 1.62 22.40% 10.30% 0.00% 8.2 45.10% 91.20% 3.90%
Dexter Fowler 0.4 0.307 0.3460 -0.0390 1.92 17.00% 4.00% 8.00% 5.4 43.70% 79.00% 8.80%
Everth Cabrera 0.11 0.339 0.3784 -0.0394 4.19 23.10% 0.00% 0.00% 5.4 45.40% 81.80% 8.10%
Chris Denorfia 0.29 0.33 0.3702 -0.0402 2.7 19.60% 0.00% 5.00% 6.8 43.00% 86.80% 5.60%
Jay Bruce 0.69 0.279 0.3199 -0.0409 1.43 21.10% 8.70% 13.00% 7.4 42.90% 68.40% 13.20%
Michael Brantley 1.1 0.274 0.3158 -0.0418 1.91 18.60% 6.10% 18.20% 4.7 40.20% 91.50% 3.30%
Lyle Overbay 0.73 0.275 0.3170 -0.0420 1.63 19.20% 0.00% 6.30% 3.9 44.40% 77.60% 9.80%
Dustin Pedroia 0.82 0.317 0.3590 -0.0420 2.21 25.00% 10.30% 3.40% 3.2 41.90% 88.10% 4.90%
Travis Snider 0.5 0.268 0.3101 -0.0421 1.82 18.60% 5.90% 17.60% 2.5 42.20% 81.50% 7.70%
Neil Walker 0.69 0.25 0.2923 -0.0423 0.98 19.50% 10.90% 13.00% 3.2 49.30% 87.70% 5.90%
Brian Roberts 0.6 0.307 0.3494 -0.0424 1 25.30% 7.10% 3.60% 6.7 47.60% 83.30% 7.80%
Kolten Wong 0.56 0.258 0.3009 -0.0429 3.08 13.10% 23.10% 0.00% 6.6 44.80% 88.30% 5.10%
Andre Ethier 0.36 0.307 0.3504 -0.0434 2.33 22.10% 5.60% 11.10% 2.6 48.40% 77.70% 10.40%
Gerardo Parra 0.36 0.314 0.3580 -0.0440 3.32 22.80% 4.50% 9.10% 4.8 47.80% 86.80% 6.30%
Todd Frazier 0.52 0.289 0.3334 -0.0444 1 22.10% 8.10% 13.50% 4.9 48.20% 77.10% 11.00%
Nick Swisher 0.59 0.247 0.2923 -0.0453 0.71 22.20% 15.60% 4.40% 1.4 41.30% 79.50% 8.20%
Aaron Hicks 0.65 0.24 0.2866 -0.0466 1.87 12.20% 0.00% 6.70% 4 35.00% 78.50% 7.50%
Matt Dominguez 0.42 0.25 0.2967 -0.0467 0.97 17.20% 7.70% 12.80% 1.8 46.50% 81.70% 7.90%
Joey Votto 1.08 0.303 0.3515 -0.0485 1.65 25.80% 3.80% 15.40% 1.9 39.10% 83.40% 5.80%
Marc Krauss 0.5 0.209 0.2580 -0.0490 0.56 13.30% 8.00% 8.00% 0.8 35.60% 74.40% 8.70%
Curtis Granderson 0.43 0.221 0.2705 -0.0495 1.17 17.70% 20.00% 10.00% 3.8 45.10% 70.30% 13.20%
Matt Carpenter 0.7 0.37 0.4205 -0.0505 1.37 35.40% 0.00% 3.70% 3.7 33.60% 87.80% 4.10%
Billy Hamilton 0.21 0.289 0.3404 -0.0514 1.24 16.40% 4.00% 4.00% 7.9 44.40% 85.60% 6.40%
Andrelton Simmons 0.71 0.265 0.3186 -0.0536 1.47 15.20% 8.30% 8.30% 3.8 50.10% 87.70% 6.30%
Kelly Johnson 0.33 0.245 0.2992 -0.0542 1.68 10.50% 5.30% 21.10% 4.6 43.70% 80.90% 8.00%
Yasmani Grandal 0.41 0.273 0.3273 -0.0543 0.96 20.30% 4.20% 16.70% 2.5 42.30% 71.20% 11.60%
Carl Crawford 0.31 0.284 0.3384 -0.0544 1.52 22.70% 3.70% 3.70% 5.7 53.70% 91.10% 5.20%
Brian McCann 0.31 0.204 0.2593 -0.0553 0.76 18.60% 17.80% 8.90% 1.7 48.00% 85.10% 6.80%
Erick Aybar 0.42 0.274 0.3297 -0.0557 1.9 24.30% 17.20% 6.90% 5.5 48.00% 91.00% 4.20%
Jason Heyward 0.48 0.258 0.3156 -0.0576 1.08 19.40% 10.50% 5.30% 4.2 43.60% 77.40% 9.60%
Chris Carter 0.33 0.213 0.2707 -0.0577 0.49 20.00% 17.10% 11.40% 3.1 46.10% 61.50% 17.00%
Alberto Callaspo 0.88 0.258 0.3162 -0.0582 1.03 20.70% 8.30% 8.30% 0.8 36.30% 90.40% 3.40%
Jean Segura 0.12 0.278 0.3367 -0.0587 4.27 17.70% 6.70% 13.30% 6.5 50.90% 85.20% 7.40%
Ryan Howard 0.28 0.286 0.3451 -0.0591 0.83 23.80% 2.90% 20.00% 3.2 49.60% 68.80% 15.30%
Jon Jay 0.46 0.297 0.3562 -0.0592 3 25.00% 0.00% 8.30% 3.9 49.20% 89.40% 5.10%
Jason Castro 0.26 0.292 0.3527 -0.0607 1.25 21.70% 4.20% 16.70% 2.8 44.50% 69.60% 13.30%
Alex Presley 0.14 0.232 0.2928 -0.0608 1.26 15.30% 14.80% 11.10% 3 48.50% 83.70% 7.80%
Derek Dietrich 0.44 0.304 0.3649 -0.0609 1.06 28.60% 5.90% 17.60% 4.9 38.80% 76.70% 9.70%
Jose Altuve 1 0.286 0.3487 -0.0627 1.52 20.30% 4.80% 2.40% 6.1 46.60% 89.60% 4.60%
Mike Zunino 0.1 0.302 0.3653 -0.0633 0.96 22.10% 0.00% 18.50% 4.3 59.30% 64.60% 19.10%
Jose Abreu 0.26 0.274 0.3379 -0.0639 1.4 21.50% 8.60% 34.30% 3.1 53.90% 70.90% 15.50%
Alejandro De Aza 0.29 0.213 0.2769 -0.0639 1.27 17.60% 18.20% 12.10% 5.3 47.20% 77.90% 10.40%
Jason Kipnis 1.06 0.25 0.3141 -0.0641 0.86 15.20% 2.80% 8.30% 4 43.30% 81.40% 8.00%
Mike Olt 0.21 0.186 0.2506 -0.0646 0.83 10.20% 12.50% 25.00% 0.9 45.90% 71.50% 12.40%
Pablo Sandoval 0.39 0.211 0.2759 -0.0649 1.39 19.60% 22.60% 6.50% 3.3 53.10% 77.20% 11.30%
Buster Posey 1.13 0.278 0.3450 -0.0670 1.25 25.00% 3.10% 21.90% 1.3 42.20% 86.60% 5.20%
Brett Lawrie 0.32 0.231 0.2980 -0.0670 1.31 13.50% 16.70% 16.70% 1.3 51.00% 80.40% 9.60%
Freddie Freeman 0.61 0.333 0.4006 -0.0676 0.77 34.30% 2.60% 15.40% 1.8 50.60% 80.40% 9.70%
Prince Fielder 1.1 0.25 0.3177 -0.0677 1.9 18.70% 10.00% 10.00% 1.5 44.80% 80.80% 8.10%
Josh Wilson 0.14 0.283 0.3523 -0.0693 1.41 22.60% 0.00% 0.00% 4.6 59.00% 79.70% 11.30%
Eric Young 0.45 0.296 0.3658 -0.0698 2.6 19.40% 0.00% 0.00% 9.7 43.40% 80.60% 8.30%
Zack Cozart 0.21 0.233 0.3041 -0.0711 1.24 18.70% 12.10% 3.00% 2 50.40% 88.40% 5.80%
Jose Reyes 0.8 0.179 0.2533 -0.0743 0.82 10.10% 11.80% 5.90% 6.8 43.30% 82.40% 7.40%
Wilin Rosario 0.38 0.243 0.3177 -0.0747 2.3 14.30% 5.00% 15.00% 0.9 55.60% 78.10% 12.00%
Michael Saunders 0.47 0.288 0.3657 -0.0777 1.05 28.10% 5.00% 5.00% 6.3 43.30% 82.20% 7.30%
Jhonny Peralta 0.54 0.233 0.3131 -0.0801 0.81 21.60% 11.90% 16.70% 0.8 50.80% 79.00% 10.50%
Pedro Alvarez 0.58 0.202 0.2830 -0.0810 1.05 11.30% 7.10% 19.00% 3.4 45.00% 73.20% 11.60%
David Freese 0.22 0.263 0.3476 -0.0846 1.76 20.30% 0.00% 11.80% 2.5 44.70% 75.50% 10.70%
Khris Davis 0.03 0.277 0.3625 -0.0855 1.17 23.50% 3.30% 13.30% 4.1 52.90% 67.80% 16.60%
Russell Martin 0.62 0.271 0.3570 -0.0860 2.42 18.00% 0.00% 16.70% 1.6 41.90% 74.00% 10.80%
Dan Uggla 0.19 0.239 0.3265 -0.0875 1 17.80% 6.70% 6.70% 1.4 47.80% 75.50% 11.50%
Adrian Beltre 0.64 0.286 0.3760 -0.0900 1.24 27.70% 0.00% 9.50% 2.5 46.00% 87.90% 5.90%
Brian Dozier 0.81 0.234 0.3241 -0.0901 0.89 17.80% 11.40% 18.20% 6.6 36.10% 84.10% 5.50%
Jordy Mercer 0.19 0.194 0.2842 -0.0902 2.14 8.30% 4.80% 0.00% 1.7 49.10% 81.10% 8.30%
J.B. Shuck 0.22 0.171 0.2630 -0.0920 1.91 8.60% 13.60% 9.10% 6 50.60% 93.90% 3.00%
Travis d’Arnaud 0.67 0.221 0.3131 -0.0921 1.11 18.60% 3.70% 7.40% 2.6 46.70% 85.60% 6.70%
David DeJesus 1.2 0.231 0.3237 -0.0927 1.3 22.10% 8.70% 13.00% 2.7 40.10% 89.00% 4.20%
Cody Asche 0.41 0.296 0.3904 -0.0944 1.8 26.30% 0.00% 20.00% 1 46.40% 78.00% 10.40%
Aramis Ramirez 0.47 0.24 0.3349 -0.0949 0.88 26.00% 4.90% 9.80% 2.3 55.00% 79.00% 11.30%
Alexi Amarista 0.53 0.203 0.2993 -0.0963 1.74 10.30% 5.30% 5.30% 6.3 45.60% 88.30% 5.30%
Corey Hart 0.36 0.232 0.3292 -0.0972 0.94 19.50% 2.80% 13.90% 2.6 50.10% 75.80% 11.80%
Eric Sogard 1.11 0.227 0.3317 -0.1047 1.09 23.80% 8.70% 0.00% 5.1 43.60% 91.10% 3.90%
Carlos Santana 0.93 0.151 0.2569 -0.1059 1.19 10.20% 13.90% 11.10% 2.7 34.90% 80.60% 6.70%
Elvis Andrus 0.78 0.252 0.3594 -0.1074 4.93 22.60% 6.70% 6.70% 5.8 38.00% 85.70% 5.10%
Jesus Guzman 0.14 0.267 0.3774 -0.1104 1.5 25.50% 7.10% 14.30% 2.9 43.10% 76.00% 9.10%
Allen Craig 0.32 0.225 0.3370 -0.1120 2.63 17.10% 4.20% 12.50% 2.6 44.80% 87.20% 5.70%
Raul Ibanez 0.32 0.177 0.2899 -0.1129 1.57 14.30% 14.30% 14.30% 3 45.10% 69.00% 13.90%
Mark Trumbo 0.23 0.192 0.3058 -0.1138 1.38 15.30% 14.30% 33.30% 1.6 49.00% 74.70% 12.10%
Ryan Raburn 0.29 0.224 0.3379 -0.1139 0.75 28.60% 5.00% 0.00% 1.1 46.30% 73.90% 10.90%
Jedd Gyorko 0.26 0.172 0.2892 -0.1172 1.33 14.40% 6.10% 9.10% 5 45.60% 72.90% 11.40%
Brad Miller 0.19 0.213 0.3322 -0.1192 0.97 18.70% 6.50% 9.70% 4.4 50.80% 75.30% 12.40%
Yonder Alonso 0.27 0.178 0.2980 -0.1200 1.13 17.80% 10.30% 0.00% 3.9 50.60% 86.20% 6.70%
Daniel Nava 0.35 0.167 0.2872 -0.1202 1.16 18.00% 21.10% 10.50% 4.3 39.40% 85.70% 5.50%
Mike Moustakas 0.45 0.141 0.2646 -0.1236 0.79 14.60% 10.30% 10.30% 0.7 46.60% 81.80% 8.00%
Chase Headley 0.3 0.229 0.3683 -0.1393 1.53 24.00% 0.00% 13.30% 3.1 44.90% 74.80% 11.20%
Ruben Tejada 0.67 0.246 0.3859 -0.1399 1.73 32.80% 0.00% 0.00% 0.4 43.40% 84.00% 6.70%
Nick Castellanos 0.19 0.253 0.3987 -0.1457 0.69 31.60% 0.00% 12.50% 1.1 59.60% 69.90% 17.40%
Pedro Florimon 0.39 0.149 0.3199 -0.1709 1.71 17.40% 0.00% 0.00% 9.8 42.70% 76.40% 10.00%

As you look at the above list and inflated BABIPs, keep in mind the following positive effects: HR/FB ratio; line drive, ground ball (with enough speed) and infield hit rates as well as infield fly ball rates (inverse). –Herbie Hancock

 

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