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Re: Danks

Posted: Fri Apr 16, 2010 3:26 pm
by reveries
xFIP is meant to give you a projection of a player in a vacuum. There are some guys who can outperform it for years, but it is a good red flag indicator in general. I do look at xFIP and I still took Danks, I just wouldn't rely on him to anchor my staff. I also use the same strategy of avoiding the top pitchers(I'm in a keeper league and grabbed Greinke in round 10 last year, hence my ownership of him), but xFIP can actually help you in this strategy to spot players sporting high ERAs who may be able to improve the next year. It's not a be all/end all stat in fantasy, but it's definitely helpful especially with the strategy that you(and I) employ.

Re: Danks

Posted: Fri Apr 16, 2010 6:46 pm
by Ace Hakes
Reveries, I see you and I are both enjoying Utley at 2B. What a freakin STUD!

Re: Danks

Posted: Fri Apr 16, 2010 7:34 pm
by reveries
The Pujols/Utley combo is great. I grabbed Utley last year in round 2 when everyone was worried about the hip. Still couldn't believe he made it that far.

Re: Danks

Posted: Sat Apr 17, 2010 8:33 am
by cygar13
reveries and Ace both have some good hitters. I have to give reveries the edge at 3B though. Zimmerman is going to have a monster year. It seems he has been playing for 10 years now, but he is still only 25. The guy hits HR's even when he can pick up his leg. Longoria is going to be good too, but he is more focused on commercials right now.

reveries, I was looking at your signature and noticed your league has a 45 IP minimum. Is that supposed to be maximum? If not, what happens if you have SP's miss some starts or you don't get your 45 innings?

Re: Danks

Posted: Sat Apr 17, 2010 9:12 am
by cygar13
Back to the xFIP. I know what it is. I know it is "supposed" to determine how good a pitcher really is by taking out all uncontrollable things such as fielders. But when you have a top prospect which Danks was in Texas. They throw him into an American League starting rotation as a 21 year old and he takes his lumps. Then he matures into a solid pitcher in his 2nd and 3rd year with solid ERA's (3.22 & 3.77) and solid K's (159 & 149), not to mention he hasn't missed a start in 3 years. His K rate will go up, not down.

So I decided to compare him to the other best LHP in the game when they were 22 and 23. However, most of the best LHP at that age were in the minors or in the bullpen. So I decided to use their 2nd and 3rd season in the starting rotation. And I decided to use the famous, xFIP.

John Danks 2008-2009: 3.87, 4.44

Jon Lester 2007-2008: 5.13, 4.08
Francisco Liriano 2008-2009: 4.31, 4.55
CC Sabathia 2002-2003: 4.30, 4.13
Cliff Lee 2005-2006: 4.26, 5.09
Johan Santana 2004-2005: 2.95, 3.10
Mark Buehrle 2002-2003: 4.03, 4.37
Erik Bedard 2005-2006: 4.01, 3.77
And everyone's favorite... Jonathan Sanchez 2008-2009: 4.14, 4.19

So according to xFIP, you would've overlooked all these guys (except Santana obviously), because their xFIP was equal to or much worse than Danks this point of their careers. You would've definitely given up on CC, because he only had 149 and 141 K's during these season, less than Danks in each season.

While I imagine you guys will spew out some other geek stats at me why Danks will not be good, that is fine. I will sit and watch Danks throw solid game after solid game this summer and think back to what Texas was thinking when they had to have Brandon McCarthy when they traded Danks to the South Side.

Re: Danks

Posted: Sat Apr 17, 2010 11:15 am
by reveries
reveries and Ace both have some good hitters. I have to give reveries the edge at 3B though. Zimmerman is going to have a monster year. It seems he has been playing for 10 years now, but he is still only 25. The guy hits HR's even when he can pick up his leg. Longoria is going to be good too, but he is more focused on commercials right now.

reveries, I was looking at your signature and noticed your league has a 45 IP minimum. Is that supposed to be maximum? If not, what happens if you have SP's miss some starts or you don't get your 45 innings?
Haha, you're screwed. It is minimum. That's why I'm carrying 8 SP and so are a lot of people. It has the effect of making the pitching waiver pool very thin.

Re: Danks

Posted: Sat Apr 17, 2010 11:26 am
by cygar13
So what happens if you don't get it? What if your pitchers only get you 38 innings? Do you lose points or fofeit that week?

Re: Danks

Posted: Sat Apr 17, 2010 11:40 am
by reveries
It's H2H and you lose every pitching category. It's mainly to penalize the guys who don't pay attention and have like 2 healthy pitchers who have good starts and beat you in a bunch of average categories. So far, it hasn't happened to anyone yet.