Since I don’t draft starters early, the top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball have a lot of names that I would draft. Will I try for a starter from the top 20 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball rankings? Yeah, definitely, but things don’t always work out the way you envision. To anchor my staff, I could conceivably have two starters from these top 40 starters and, as you’ll see, I don’t even like all 20 of these starters. All the other 2010 fantasy baseball rankings can be found there. Also, as with other rankings, tiers and my projections are mentioned. Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball:
21. Wandy Rodriguez – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Oswalt. I call this tier, “I’m on board.” Other than a slightly high percentage of men left on base, Wandy’s 2009 looks repeatable. So here’s what he did in 2009: 3.02 ERA, 1.24 WHIP and 193 Ks in 205 2/3 innings. The Wandwagon rides again! 2010 Projections: 13-11/3.55/1.27/190
22. Chad Billingsley – Since Billingsley’s 2009 was so opposite of everything I expected, I’m going to speak in the inverse for him. Last year, Bills had one of those dream seasons. He came to camp in great shape. Obviously cutting back on Ring Dings went a long way, but the key was his ice skating regimen. As he stayed healthy all year, he dominated from start to finish. K-rate crept up, walks went down and homers? He didn’t give any up. In 2010, the negation of the negation. 2010 Projections: 16-8/3.50/1.32/190
23. Matt Garza – Not crazy about the AL East. It’s inevitable that you bench Garza vs. the Yankees or Sox when he pitches well and you start him when he gets hit. You can set your watch to it. Still Garza makes the pain of match ups bearable. Last year, he increased his 2008 K-rate from 6.24 to 8.38. Looking at his 9+ K/9 minor league league rate makes me think Garza, at the age of 25, finally found himself in the majors. He should repeat last year’s numbers or take a step forward. Here’s to forward movement… 2010 Projections: 12-9/3.80/1.24/200
24. Jered Weaver – What you see is what you get with Weaver. An above average pitcher, but nowhere near the stud he looked like when he was first called up. 2010 Projections: 15-10/3.65/1.22/180
25. Scott Baker – Baker came out of gates with a sore shoulder that sidelined him for one official start in April. Then he went on a two month string of terrible starts that made his owners wish he went on the 60-day DL. His post-All-Star Break ERA was 3.28, his ERA in 2008 was 3.45. I believe those numbers vs. the ones in the 1st half of 2009. 2010 Projections: 14-7/3.65/1.17/170
26. David Price – Here’s a detailed David Price fantasy breakdown. 2o10 Projections: 12-9/3.75/1.30/155
27. Ryan Dempster – Dempster was so downright awful as a closer that it took me two years before I was willing to believe he’s a mid-3 ERA starter. And even now I feel the same way I felt with Cliff Lee in the top 20 starters. I just know when I endorse Dempster, he’s going to employ his parachute as he watches me crash to the ground. 2010 Projections: 13-8/3.90/1.28/170
28. Roy Oswalt – The good news for 2009 is his ERA was higher than it should’ve been for how he pitched. The bad news is it shouldn’t have been that much lower. The days of him being an ace are way behind him, but as a quality number two to three man on your staff you can do worse. 2010 Projections: 12-6/3.65/1.22/150
29. Tommy Hanson – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Scherzer. I call this tier, “Guys I’m avoiding that I’m not entirely thrilled about avoiding.” Hanson’s innings bump was just too much for my high blood pressure. I don’t think he’s going to be terrible this year. I picture he’ll have a year similar to Billingsley’s 2009. A few solid months and a few mediocre months, leading to an overall 3.75 ERA. There’s way too many starters to choose from for me to buy into a guy I’m a little weary of. Even if I’m right and he’s not good in 2010, he will be fine in 2011. 2010 Projections: 14-6/3.75/1.20/175
30. Javier Vazquez – As I wrote when he was traded, I originally had Vazquez ranked in the top 20 starters. For s’s and g’s, here’s what I wrote when I had him ranked in the top 20. “For all starters in the major leagues, he had the lowest percentage of contact made on all pitches at 73.3%. (For reference, Lincecum had 75%.) For contact made from strikes, Vazquez ranked fourth. When hitters aren’t making contact, you’re doing something well. When you do that and throw as many strikes as Vazquez (238:44 K:BB), you’re doing something really3 well.” Here’s what I wrote after he was traded. 2010 Projections: 15-10/4.15/1.22/200
31. Max Scherzer – His ranking is sorta like my ranking of Gallardo. If I’m wrong, then I’m missing out on a guy that I could regret not owning because of all of his Ks. Alas, I’m avoiding him because of his innings jump from ’08 to ’09 and his move to the Tigers won’t help his value. It’s a termite-infested limb I’m out on avoiding him, but here I am. 2010 Projections: 12-8/4.00/1.32/165
32. Matt Cain – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Burnett. I call this tier, “They will regress, but still ownable. Plus, A.J. Burnett.” 2007 is in Cain’s skill set. 2009 is not. Or I should say it’s not without a lot of luck. For all major league starters outside of Happ (and we’ll get to him in the top 60), Cain left the most men on base. He also had a lower BABIP than Happ, if only by percentage points. I say 2007 is in his skill set because that year he had a 3.65 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 163 Ks. That’s ownable, just not a 2.89 ERA. 2010 Projections: 15-10/3.65/1.25/165
33. Jair Jurrjens – UPDATED: Jar-Jar moved to the top 60 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball.
34. A.J. Burnett – Took two years of 30+ starts for me to accept Burnett as reliable. …Okay, I still don’t fully trust him, but it’s hard to find a 200 strikeout pitcher this late in the game. Would I team Burnett with an upside two or three starter, like, say, Price? No, I wouldn’t. But I could see teaming him with an Oswalt-type. Which gives me an idea, maybe I’ll do a post about pairings. Not like what wine goes with branzino. Like which starter goes with which starter. 2010 Projections: 16-9/4.05/1.35/200
35. James Shields – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Zambrano. I call this tier, “Veterans that I’m done with.” I just can’t take Shields’s shizz anymore. Pitches well vs. the tough teams, gets his stank handed to him by the Royals, can’t pitch in away games… You’ve beaten me, Shields. You win. 2010 Projections: 13-8/4.00/1.28/160
36. John Lackey – When he signed with Bahston, I went over Lackey for 2010 fantasy. 2010 Projections: 13-9/3.95/1.29/130
37. Brandon Webb – Hey, he’s all better! That’s nice, I’m not owning him. Pitching is already risky. Not worth further risk. 2010 Projections: 12-7/3.60/1.28/165
38. Carlos Zambrano – Big Z is done-zo. The Chicago chapter of the World Health Organization’s Freedom of Accuracy and Truth symposium should counsel children on what happens when you abuse an out of shape pitcher’s arm for five years. In elementary school classrooms, posters can be hung of Carlos Zambrano, brought to you by WHO’s F.A.T. 2010 Projections: 14-9/3.95/1.35/140
39. Kevin Slowey – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here into the top 60 starters post. I call this tier, “Fliers that I’m willing to give a chance.” There’s a good chance I’m going to own at least one of these guys on all of my teams. Slowey’s a strikeout pitcher that doesn’t walk anyone. You shouldn’t need much else to get excited. (BTW, everyone in this tier’s projections are optimistic, but whatevs. You’ll afford me my dreams, right?) 2010 Projections: 15-9/3.60/1.17/165
40. Johnny Cueto – The 2nd half ERA of 5.81 was dreadful. He had a two month ERA (July and August) of 8.18. Was not a good time to be a Cueto owner. His FIP was 4.69 on the year. So what am I seeing in this schmohawk? He suffered from a sore hip, which threw his mechanics out of control in the middle of the season. In the minors, Cueto was a strikeout pitcher with solid control. Here’s to him finding his happy place in the majors. 2010 Projections: 13-9/3.80/1.30/160
