Trevor Cahill

Who to start, who to bench. Grab that WW guy? Low priced rookie or high priced stud?
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Trevor Cahill

Postby Grimlock » Wed May 13, 2009 1:43 am

Thoughts? Seems like the kid's getting his shit together somewhat under the radar at this point. Interesting stats thus far. He's sitting at 2-2 ; 3.69 ERA ; 1.51 WHIP. The WHIP is abhorrent, but numbers across the board look a lot better without the one stinker against Tampa (2.2 IP ; 8 hits ; 7 ER ; 2 BB), and he's gotten his walks in check of late, giving up only 5 in his last 19 frames, with two wins to show for it. Supposedly, he made a mechanical adjustment after the Tampa game, and while I usually don't put much credence in such statements, the results since that game make me think he really might have figured something out.

Cahill's only earned runs in his past three starts have come on four solo homeruns, which is wierd. He's held down a 1.26 WHIP in those starts, which suggests he should have had at least one or two men on base without a bit of luck, but then it's also probably bad luck that he's had 4 of 33 flyballs in those games leave the yard. Considering he was projected as a Webb-type sinkerballer, he hasn't drawn a super GB/FB ratio, but has been effective, nonetheless. Lefties are killing him (1.122 OPS against) while righties are struggling (.653 OPS against). Looks to me like a strong spot-starter against heavy-righty lineups at this point, especially with the A's offense looking somewhat less than dead. I threw him out there against KC last night, and he took off his wool cap and rewarded me with a win.

What do you think, Grey?

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Beane Disciple
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Re: Trevor Cahill

Postby Beane Disciple » Wed May 13, 2009 3:59 am

I think that's some pretty sweet analysis and I'm a big fan of the stat breakdown. Definitely going to steal, I mean use, that information in my roto league.
Yahoo League: 10 Team Roto 5x5

C- Wieters
1B- Cabrera
2B- Cuddyer
SS- Hanley
3B- Beltre
CI: Ike Davis
MI: Andrus
LF- Tabata
CF- BJ Upton
RF- De Aza
UTIL- Maybin
B: Ackley
B: Dunn
B: Ryan Roberts

P- Greinke
P- Bumgarner
P- Josh Johnson
P- Cain
P- Marcum
P- Walden
P- League
P- Guerra
B- Balfour
B- Johnson
B- Broxton

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Re: Trevor Cahill

Postby Grimlock » Wed May 13, 2009 4:42 am

Thanks, Disciple. Looking at Cahill's next start against the Tigers, Granderson is the only dangerous lefty in that lineup. Gotta say Cahill looks like a strong matchup play there, and he may end up being a must-start by the end of the year.

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Joined: Wed Feb 25, 2009 8:32 am

Re: Trevor Cahill

Postby Grimlock » Mon May 18, 2009 5:05 am

Hmmm...looks like the Tigers were wise to this, and stacked their lineup with bench/platoon lefties - Josh Anderson, Jeff Larish and the switch-hitting Ramon Santiago, specifically. Not surprisingly, these three guys hit Cahill hard. Detroit offensive stats from the innings Cahill pitched:

C Granderson - L: 0-0 ; 2 BB ; 1 R
J Anderson - L: 1-2 ; 3B ; 2 RBI
C Thomas - L: 0-2
M Cabrera - R: 0-2
M Ordonez - R: 1-2 ; 2B ; 1 R
J Larish - L: 2-2 ; 2 R
G Laird - R: 1-2 ; 1 RBI ; 1 R
R Santiago - B: 1-1; 3B ; 1 RBI ; 1 R
A Everett - R: 1-1 ; 1 RBI ; 1 R

So what does this tell us? Lefties were a combined 4-7 against Cahill with two walks, two triples, 4 runs and 3 RBIs. OBP: .667 , SLG: 1.142 , OPS: 1.809. Righties were a combined 3-7 with one double, 2 RBIs and 3 runs (2 RBIs not counted here as they came off Casilla as inherited runners when Santiago hit a home run in the 3rd). OBP: .428 , SLG: .571 , OPS: .999. Cahill was bad, in general, in this start, but was particularly murdered by the lefties, a rather poor group of whom absolutely teed off on him.

Looking at Cahill's previous starts, this appears to be the first time that an opposing team really stacked its lineup with platoon lefties against Cahill, and the results weren't pretty. It also appears that Cahill was off, in general, yesterday, so I dunno what kind of trend this forebodes. Nevertheless, I wouldn't be shocked to see Trevor get a steady diet of lefty platoon hitters until he proves he can get those guys out, which probably isn't a good thing for his season going forward.

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Re: Trevor Cahill

Postby Grey » Mon May 18, 2009 8:08 am

You make great points, but the biggest problem I have with him is his age, he doesn't get enough swings and misses and he relies on his fastball way too much.
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