Finished up the hitters for the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings and now we’re turning our eye patch to the top 20 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball. Ain’t life grand? I supposed, but pimpin’ still ain’t easy, despite strides made by Three 6 Mafia and Big Daddy Kane. Before we get into the top 20 starters, I want to point out one thing about my projections. Wins and losses are total shots in the dark. Did I take into consideration how well their respective teams would do? Really doe. Still doesn’t matter. As with other rankings, where I see tiers starting and ending is mentioned and my projections. Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball:
1. Tim Lincecum – Went over Lincecum’s projections in the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball.
2. Felix Hernandez – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Greinke. I call this tier, “F-Her vs. Greinke.” I feel like F-Her doesn’t get his due. I know he must be thrilled to finally get that acknowledgment from a fantasy baseball blog. Fire your PR firm! Imagine a 23-year-old pitcher in New York throwing 238 2/3 innings with a 2.49 ERA and 217 Ks. Joba’s Mom opens a crystal meth lab in the bathroom of a Denny’s and it makes more news than F-Her. Even in my blurb for F-Her I’m talking about Joba. Guy gets no respect. At least I didn’t talk about Greinke. Oh, wait… 2010 Projections: 18-6/3.00/1.10/220
3. Zach Greinke – The only reason why Greinke is going before F-Her in drafts is because of hype. Just something about someone reaching their potential that drives people crazy. Greinke had an exceptional year in 2009. No argument from me. I before E except in Greinke, I know. I just think F-Her’s a tad safer. Maybe it’s the four straight years of 190+ innings from F-Her… Maybe it’s the jump in K-rate for Greinke and the more gradual increase for F-Her… Maybe it’s Greinke’s literal feel good story…. Maybe I’m just a cynic to hype… In the end, it’s not like I ranked Greinke 20th. 2010 Projections: 14-5/3.05/1.10/225
4. Roy Halladay – This is a new tier. This tier goes until Johan. I call this tier, “Don’t hate them because they’ve done it many times before.” Went over my Halladay fantasy already. 2010 Projections: 17-8/3.02/1.14/185
5. CC Sabathia – Since I pitted Greinke vs. F-Her, let’s look at Sabathia vs. Johan. Johan’s K-rate has been falling. It was still 7.88 and slightly above CC at 7.71. Johan’s walks went up last year: 2.48 BB/9. Sabathia’s was still higher at 2.62. Johan pitches in Metco, whereas CC’s in a Little League stadium. Johan was dealing with some arm issues, so maybe that’s why he was wilder than usual and his strikeouts have been declining. Yeah, maybe, but Johan was dealing with some arm issues so he’s below CC. 2010 Projections: 20-10/3.45/1.17/200
6. Johan Santana – I think reports of Johan’s doneness have been prematurely reported. Will he give you 250 Ks and a 2.50? Nah, those days are in the rear view, but 200 Ks and a 3.00 ERA seems completely doable. 2010 Projections: 18-7/3.15/1.18/200
7. Justin Verlander – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Wainwright. I call this tier, “These guys have a legitimate chance of being on my team.” I don’t draft starters high, but I am a whore for Ks. They’re sorta like homers for me with hitters. A homer gets you a Run, a RBI and boosts your average. While a K doesn’t directly get you a Win, it does help ERA and WHIP. It’s also one of the few things the pitcher controls. Thanks to a fastball that averaged 96 MPH, Verlander had 269 Ks last year. For starters last year, he ranked 7th for getting batters to chase pitches outside the strike zone. If he can somehow avoid the terrible April he’s had two years in a row, he could be in for a sub-3 ERA. 2010 Projections: 17-11/3.25/1.20/230
8. Dan Haren – Haren is one of the most reliable pitchers. Around a 3.20 ERA — check! Around 200 Ks — check! Terrible in the 2nd half — alas! 2010 Projections: 16-10/3.30/1.15/200
9. Jon Lester – Pitchers usually breakout in their third year starting. Worked last year for Lester and I don’t see it as a fluke. Will his K-rate continue to climb? Probably not. Is it a tough division? Sorta. Whole lot easier not facing the Sawx. Last year, his FIP was 3.15. He ranked behind only Lincecum and Verlander for K/9. Could be Lincecum, Verlander and Lester at the top of the rankings next year. 2010 Projections: 17-7/3.35/1.20/215
10. Adam Wainwright – As with other rankings posts, there’s always a few that legitimately stump me. I move them up and down and eventually settle on a place. I don’t tell you this just so you can peer behind the curtain and see I’m not wearing pants. I tell you this so you know I’m more iffy on certain players. If they were to bomb, I wouldn’t be completely surprised. So Wainwright was great last year, most signs point to him being able to repeat, but there’s a few red flags. A Flag) His innings jump. He is older than the age when pitchers are usually flagged for that, but still. B Flag) He relies heavily on breaking pitches. Either he doesn’t trust his fastball or Yadier’s got carpal tunnel and can’t hold down one finger. C Flag) Whoever heard of a C Flag. There’s no such thing. 2010 Projections: 16-8/3.30/1.18/190
11. Cole Hamels – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Kershaw. I call this tier, “If I don’t get a pitcher from the previous tier, I’ll need someone from this tier.” Sure, Hamels was full on crizzap last year. Well, Happy New Year! Hamels led all starters with least amount of contact made on pitches inside the strike zone. That’s stuff. He’s on a team that can give him a shot for 18-20 Wins, he can reach 190 Ks and a mid to low-3 ERA. 2010 Projections: 16-10/3.45/1.15/185
12. Josh Johnson – Tons of Ks, great ERA, insane FIP. Yes! Previous elbow problems combined with a huge innings bump, his 2.74 ERA pre-All-Star Break vs. his 4.00 ERA post-All-Star Break, somewhat lucky HR/FB. This fish looks so damn tasty, but he might be tainted with mercury. I don’t think he’s a slam dunk, but I’m willing to take the risk for the reward. 2010 Projections: 14-6/3.35/1.22/175
13. Cliff Lee – After Lee’s Cy Young win, I remained a non-believer. After his 2009 year, I’ve seen the light. I’m done fighting the man. Lee’s a top starter. And I just know that now that I’m in bed with him, I’m going to wake up with a horse’s head. 2010 Projections: 15-8/3.40/1.22/160
14. Ubaldo Jimenez – From May to October, Ubaldo’s ERA was 3.08. And he has the most baldass name. 2010 Projections: 15-9/3.50/1.27/200
15. Ricky Nolasco – In 185 innings, Nolasco rang up 195 Ks and only gave up 44 walks. His K/BB rate ranked fifth in the majors just behind Greinke, Vazquez, Haren and Halladay. He ranked eighth for the times he was able to get a batter to swing outside of the strike zone, just below Verlander. He also had a 5.06 ERA last year. This was due to bad luck. The ERA will come down. This is a fantasy baseball trust exercise. Fall into Nolasco’s arms, he’ll catch you. 2010 Projections: 15-7/3.55/1.20/200
16. Josh Beckett – Red State Jeter always seems to have stretches where he’ll throw a couple of 6 inning games and give up 8 runs in each, which is a dagger to the testicles. But he’s consistently near 200 Ks, has a team that gives him wins and a 3.63 FIP or under for three years straight. 2010 Projections: 16-10/3.70/1.22/195
17. Clayton Kershaw – Kershaw is not the prototypical Grey crush. He walks a lot of hitters and has a hard time getting out of the 6 inning. A 21 year old who just had a 3.08 FIP and a 9.74 K/9 makes up for a whole lot of walks and short outings. End of last year, I furthered my Kershaw fantasy. 2010 Projections: 12-4/3.20/1.22/200
18. Chris Carpenter – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Peavy. I call this tier, “Avoid.” I know all that jazz about Duncan teaching his starters to pitch to contact. Well, here’s a jazz riff for you. I don’t want my fantasy starters pitching to contact when I have to pay for them with a top draft pick. If Carp comes cheap, then sure, otherwise I think he’s too hyped, even outside The Bootheel. 2010 Projections: 14-7/3.10/1.05/135
19. Yovani Gallardo – We had a good run last year, but it went on too long and wasn’t that pretty towards the end. I could see my avoidance of Gallardo biting me in the ass because he is an extreme strikeout pitcher, which I like, but the innings jump from 2008 to 2009 raises too many questions for me. 2010 Projections: 14-9/3.85/1.32/175
20. Jake Peavy – It’s with great regret Peavy ends up in the avoid tier. He’s just been too injured the last couple of seasons. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice and, well, you know the cliché. And now he’s out of Petco. Lates, Peave. 2010 Projections: 10-5/3.35/1.15/145
