Phew. The 2009 fantasy baseball rankings come to a semi-close with the top 20 closers for 2009. (I say semi-close, cause I will tweak them from time to time and I’m going to have a top 100 and 300 overall soon too.) The top 20 closers are a bit different than all of the other lists. The closers on the top of this list you should not draft and there are closers that aren’t on this list that you should be targeting. The 2009 projections are a bit wonky too since you can’t predict how many saves a closer is going to get. I mean, you just can’t. To the point where some well-respected projections…ers don’t even attempt to. Saves come down to opportunity. Also, I’ll have a separate post shortly for every team’s closer. For a broad idea of where players are in relation to each other, see the 2009 Fantasy Baseball Player Rater. Anyway, here’s the top 20 closers for 2009 fantasy baseball:
1. Jonathan Papelbon – This is the top tier. This tier goes from here to K-Rod. I call this tier, “These guys are terrific, but I’m not going to own any of them.” Familiarize yourself with commandment number one — SAGNOF. In this case it’s Saves Ain’t Got No Face. This means that if someone is getting saves then they are worth owning. It’s like you’re going hogging — all the time. You’re never going for pretty, high-priced closers. They’ll get you in trouble. 2009 Projections: 6-2/1.75/.95/80, 45 saves
2. Joe Nathan – There’s no reason to get a high-priced closer. Think about it. You just want saves from them. So you care if you get 40 saves from Nathan or 40 saves from Nationals schmohawk closer to be named later? 2009 Projections: 2-3/1.90/1.00/75, 42 saves
3. Brad Lidge – I’ve seen Lidge underrated in some drafts so he might be one top closer I end up with. Are people worried that Pujols is going to be facing him in every ninth inning of every game? Lidge offers you close to 100 Ks, that’s worth the high pick alone. 2009 Projections: 5-4/2.50/1.20/100, 40 saves
4. Mariano Rivera – Doode’s going to be 39 for the 2009 season. I’m not saying this is the year it all falls apart, but I don’t wanna be the last one to shut off the lights on the Mariano Rivera Is A Top Tiered Closer Party. 2009 Projections: 4-3/2.75/1.00/60, 40 saves
5. Francisco Rodriguez – It’s been written so many times before that he’s not going to save 60 games again that I’ll simply say yup. “Yup.” 2009 Projections: 3-2/2.85/1.30/80, 42 saves
6. Joakim Soria – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here to the end of the list. I call this tier, “I need to get 120 saves total to compete, so I’m grabbing as much value as I can.” In reality, there’s probably a few tiers in the closer ranks and when I’m going over $12 Salads, Donkey-corns and Brain Freezes, I’ll go into more detail. As for Soria, I’m worried that he’s slowly becoming overrated as we head towards 2009 drafts. He’s going to be good, but remember SAGNOF. 2009 Projections: 3-4/2.00/.95/60, 35 saves
7. Jonathan Broxton – Unfortunately, the Dodgers already committed to Broxton for 2009 over Saito. I say unfortunately because I knew Broxton would be the closer, but with Saito in the picture there was more of a chance to steal Broxton in a draft. Oh, well. Gotta pay to play. 2009 Projections: 3-3/3.00/1.15/80, 35 saves
8. Francisco Cordero – Alex, Closers for $200. The question is, “35 saves looks like what?” Francisco Cordero. 2009 Projections: 6-4/3.75/1.32/75, 35 saves
9. Bobby Jenks – If someone finds Jenks’s strikeouts, do return them. 2009 Projections: 3-2/3.20/1.14/50, 35 saves
10. B.J. Ryan – Was a surprise to me that Ryan was able to have such a productive 2008, but that’s all in the past and now I’m recommending him. If he has a personal vendetta against me, then he’ll have a subpar year. We shall see. 2009 Projections: 3-3/3.15/1.22/65, 37 saves
11. Brian Fuentes – I ran over what I thought Fuentes could do in 2009 and I kept coming up with stats that are near those of Wood, Valverde and others that are below him. That’s how he ended up here, if you were wondering. 2009 Projections: 3-1/3.75/1.14/70, 40 saves
12. Kerry Wood – Yes, the thought of handcuffing yourself to Betancourt or Jensen Lewis is frightening, but Wood showed he can excel as a closer as long as he stays healthy. 2009 Projections: 4-2/3.70/1.10/75, 37 saves
13. Jose Valverde – I can’t shake the feeling that he’s going to explode at some point, but he’s shown enough the last two years to think I’m just being paranoid. Did you just say something about me? 2009 Projections: 3-5/3.75/1.20/80, 40 saves
14. Chad Qualls – This might be my number one closer on every team and I’ll be more than happy with that. I love guys who have been around the block and are getting their first shot at closing. They’re almost always underrated. Throw the Win-Loss projection out the window and look at the ERA, WHIP, Ks and Saves for Qualls. Those aren’t farfetched numbers. 2009 Projections: 6-3/3.00/1.18/70, 35 saves
15. Carlos Marmol – He’s only this low because no one in the Cubs organization has said Marmol is the Cubs 2009 closer. When someone says that, he moves up. Not until then. 2009 Projections: 7-2/2.75/1.00/80, 20 saves
16. Heath Bell – Heath falls into the same category as Chad Qualls. Guys that you think aren’t worth anything because they’ve never been the closer before. Just grab Bell late and collect his 30 saves. 2009 Projections: 4-1/3.75/1.20/65, 30 saves
17. Joey Devine – Devine falls into the same category as Marmol. He’ll shoot up these rankings if he’s officially appointed the A’s 2009 closer. And Brad Ziegler will magically replace him if he’s named the closer. 2009 Projections: 4-2/2.75/1.00/65, 20 saves
18. Brian Wilson – Really the only thing that has him on the list and not lumped with Lindstrom, Corpas, etc in Huston Street’s blurb is the season Wilson just had in 2008. And saves are not really a stat that translate well from year to year… Well, what I’m saying is I think I overrated Wilson. Closers lose their jobs all the time and I think Wilson loses his in 2009, but that’s more of a hunch than anything. 2009 Projections: 3-4/4.00/1.32/65, 32 saves
19. Matt Capps – If Rinku and Dinesh can get the ball to Capps, all will be right in Steel City. Gabaz! 2009 Projections: 1-4/3.15/1.00/45, 20 saves
20. Mike Gonzalez – He could be one of those late round fliers that ends up giving you 35 saves. Or, um, 25 saves. Recognize! 2009 Projections: 3-1/3.15/1.30/65, 25 saves
After the top 20 closers for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s lots of guys, but these two stand out:
Huston Street – Yes, he’s injury prone. Yes, he lost the A’s closer job last year. If he’s the Rox closer, none of that should matter to you. As I’ve repeatedly repeated for this entire post, SAGNOF — If someone’s getting saves, you should be drafting him. That goes for Lindstrom, Corpas, Ray, Hoffman, Chris Perez, Lyon, Percival, Jim Belushi in a gorilla costume, etc. 2009 Projections: 1-4/3.75/1.10/17 saves
Joel Hanrahananananan – What if I said during last year’s preseason Brian Wilson could save 41 games, would you have believed me? Remember that when looking at Hanarahananananan at the end of your draft. 2009 Projections: Saves, who cares what else?
