I hate regression, my hairline does it every day. Though subtly, like a ninja assassin, as it mocks me in the mirror when I’m brushing my teeth. Pitcher regression is a known entity. We all assume it will happen, but when and where is the big query. It seems to have hit all the guys I write about every week at once. So like the cup in Indiana Jones, choose, but choose wisely. As you may end up a pile of dust, with crappy peripherals and a cat looking at you like you’re a great place to lay claim. I can’t tell you to not chase wins, because we all do it. So just be cautious is all I’m saying and use knowledge that you have over others to guide your team from here on out. Good luck this week and any questions you may have drop me a comment. (Please be aware that pitchers and matchups change.)


Javier Vazquez vs. Cin – Arroyo
Livan Hernandez vs. Ari – Hudson
Jason Hammel vs. Hou – Rodriguez

Brandon Beachy @ CHC – Garza
John Lannan vs. Ari – Miley
Brett Cecil vs. KC – Francis

Josh Collmenter vs. SD – Leblanc
Esmil Rogers @ LAD – Lilly
Randy Wolf vs. CHC – Lopez

Jeff Karstens (Mil vs. Greinke, @StL vs. Carpenter) Like most Pirates, he walked the regression plank. Tough matchups this week are making me look both ways before crossing the street, cause knowing is half the battle…GI Joe.

Brian Duensing (Bal vs. Simon, Det vs. Penny) Not a fan of the home field advantage. Has RP eligibility coupled with some sweet matchups. The “You could do worse” starter of the week.

Joe Saunders (@Was vs. Detwiler, SD vs. Harang) Attention D-backs fans, yeah, all 6 of you.  Get in close so you can hear me. Starting game 3 of the NLDS, Joe Saunders….crickets. Fantasy wise he is crap, real life he is a scrapper. Scrappiness wins out this week with some decent matchups and a hot team.

Erik Bedard (@Tex vs. Wilson, Oak vs. Moscoso) Still chasing that first Sawx win. He is getting close to what we want/expect him to be. A kitty cat? That comment brought to you by my 3 year old niece.

Paul Maholm (Mil vs. Estrada, StL vs. Lohse) Watching him regress is like watching Journey without Steve Perry. Expect nothing. He hit the wall, hit it hard and is down for the waiver wire count.

Jason Vargas (@Cle vs. Carmona, CHW vs. Danks) Stat-wise where he is right now is where he should have been all year. Barely serviceable and an occasional spot start based on hot streak. It’s your call, but I think I’m heading on down the highway here.

Bruce Chen (@Tor vs. Morrow, @Cle vs. Masterson) Let’s see, we wouldn’t pick him up for starts versus the Yankees, Tigers and Pale Hose. I wonder how those starts turned out? My inner Bruce Chen is telling me to gamble here. Finished last year strong also, I can’t make this stuff up.

Bud Norris (@Col vs. Cook, @SF vs. Cain) How is a pitcher with a high K-rate, ERA in the mid 3’s not owned everywhere? Look at the stats, they look like Gio, but without the Latin rhythm and paltry BB/9 rate.

Nate Eovaldi (@StL vs. Carpenter, Col vs. Chacin) Unfamiliarity may be guiding his ship. Features a mid-to-upper 90’s fastball, above average curve and a passable change. Walk rate is the death march to any young starter.

Fausto Carmona (Sea vs. Vargas, KC vs. Duffy) Frustrating. You watch him pitch and he looks unhittable one inning, next inning he is throwing underhand and rolling around the infield in Stephen Hawking’s wheel chair.

  1. Bombo Rivera says:

    Hey Smokey,

    How would you rank these options? I don’t want to trash my ratios, but I’d like to pick up a few more wins. I’m under the projected innings cap.

    Bedard (@Tex, Oak)
    Chacin (HOU, @LAD)
    Norris (@COL, @SF)
    JZimmermann (ARI, @CIN)
    Dempster (ATL, @MIL)

    I can only use one of them unless I decide to bench Haren (@TEX) and/or Beachy (@CHC) in favor of some of the two-start guys.

    There are pros and cons for all of these guys. I don’t really like the starts in Texas, Coors or Cinci, and Chacin just hasn’t been very good lately.

    Right now I have Beachy, Haren and Dempster in my lineup. What would you do?


  2. Oilcan Giuseppe says:

    Smokey:couple of questions….

    1)generally speaking,Pineda IS still keeper material right?for example,would you keep him ahead of Latos,Ubaldo,Beachy and Scherzer?(its a 10 team 8×8 league which counts K’s and K/9).

    2)are you as disappointed in D. Hudson as I am?….maybe my expectations were too high,but his K/9 is at 6.83 right now.I feel like Im lucky to get a “quality start” out of him.

    thanks in advance for feedback.

  3. Smokey

    Smokey says:

    @Bombo Rivera: Start Zimmerman for his last couple starts of the year.

    @Oilcan Giuseppe: A keeper ahead of the guys listed yeah. Hudson has been decent not a number one option but a decent 2-3. By years end he will be a 5 WAR pitcher and they dont grow on trees.

  4. jessegeeeee says:

    Gotta change Hammel to White, Hammel moved to the bullpen, White set to come off the DL.

  5. Mr2Bits says:

    In a close ERA/WHIP race right now. I am currently leading ERA by .20 and whip by .03. Do you send Oswalt out there tonight as he has Huff going against Detroit? I am up 3QS but am chasing strikes. Bench Oswalt or let him pitch?

  6. AnotherFalstaff says:

    @Smokey – Does Narveson get two next week if he goes on Monday? If so, is he worth a shot? Thanks!

  7. Smokey

    Smokey says:

    @AnotherFalstaff: Brewers are 8-0 vs the Pirates who are mondays opponent. bullpen supposedly went well so he goes monday, worth a flier depending on league.

  8. JV says:

    Carmona or Saunders if you can only choose one….

  9. Black Beard says:

    Any chance Colon gets shut down?

    Please pick three for next week. Thanks!

    Colon,B. OAK [email protected]
    Niemann,J. DET [email protected]
    Carpenter,C. LAD PIT
    Masterson,J. SEA KC
    Hudson @NYM
    Romero KC
    Hughes OAK

  10. Smokey

    Smokey says:

    @JV: Saunders

    @Black Beard: Masterson, Romero Niemann. i would want as many starts as possible. He mat get skipped onc or twic to give him some extra rest.

  11. Black Beard says:

    @Smokey: Thanks Smokey. If you had to drop one of the above who would it be?

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