For the ‘season to date’ Fantasy Baseball Player Rater (everything except the ‘Last 7 day’ and ‘Last 20 day’), I’ve made a methodology change that improves the Point Share accuracy of AVG, ERA, and WHIP.
As some of you may know, creating Point Shares requires that I create a ‘rostered universe’ for each league format – e.g., I think these 18 2nd basemen would be rostered in a 12-team mixed league. Â This is all done with formulas that I’ve tweaked over the years to reflect how fantasy baseballers tend to select players. Â The Razzball Commenter League provides a great reference check to see how well my formulas work for a 12-team MLB league.
It was clear even on Player Rater launch that my hypothetical rosters have better AVG, ERA, and WHIP than the average league. Â The reason is pretty clear – my rostering is based on hindsight. Â Most rostering decisions are driven by counting stats vs ratios – particularly HRs, SBs, SVs, and Ks. Â So a pitcher like R.A. Dickey – who doesn’t wow with counting stats (at least historically) – might not make a roster until late in the season whereas my formulas would count his full-season stats.
I’ve corrected this by comparing my modeled AVG/ERA/WHIP vs. the RCL averages at the 1/3 mark of the year and then adjusting the averages accordingly. Â It ends up being about 10% less hits for hitters, 9% more ER for pitchers, and 5% more H+BB for pitchers.
The impact on the rankings and $ values is relatively minor. Â It does correct what was a large difference between ERA and WHIP Point Shares though – e.g., Justin Verlander went from 1.0 / 2.8 for ERA/WHIP to 1.8 / 2.4, Brandon Beachy went from 1.8 / 2.5 to 2.6 / 2.2, etc.
For those of you who use the Other Hitting StatsÂ Player Rater for OBP/OPS/SLG, I can update these ratios with a little help. Â If you could provide the team ratios for everyone in your league (in the comments) for one or more of these stats, I’ll be able to tweak the ratios accordingly. Â For s’s and g’s, here are my current estimates for best/worst in a 12 team MLB league: Â OBP (.363/.320), OPS (.862/.732), SLG (.505/.406).