Sorry my Razzball peeps but everybody’s favorite bearded genius J-FOH is hanging with Mickey Mouse today. So while J-FOH does his initiation with these guys, I’m stepping in to pinch hit. Think of me as a super sexy Matt Stairs, only instead of late innings hits I’m dropping Daily Baseball science on y’all! Speaking of daily fantasy science, check out Rudy’s Franken-tool the DFSBot. Why do I call it a Franken-tool? Because it’s a monster!
So now that introductions are out of the way, I have a question. Have you guys seen Adam Wainwright‘s price today on DraftKings? He costs a measly $9,500! For a pitcher of Wainwright’s caliber that’s downright stealing. Which leads me to my next question. What does DraftKings know that I don’t?
On face value I think 1. He faces the Red Sox in St. Louis which means they will be sans a DH. When the Red Sox are DH-less either Mike Napoli or David Ortiz are on the bench. That takes a lot of pop out of an already punch-less lineup. 2. The Red Sox offense stinks to begin with. Take a look at the numbers the last two weeks. They have the second lowest run total, the third highest K%, and the lowest wOBA. So they’re a bad lineup WITH Napoli and Ortiz. What’s worse than bad? Ice Cold! Thanks Andre 3000! Sure they upgraded their offense at the deadline, but Allen Craig just hit the DL and Yoenis Cespedes is 0/4 vs Wainwright lifetime with 3 K’s. I’m going to go out on a limb here and say Wainwright is in line for a dominant performance tonight. Expect a minimum of 7 innings of one run ball, with 8 K’s.
To play devil’s advocate, the Wainwright problem on DraftKings lately is his steadily evaporating strikeouts. The K/9 this year of 7.37 is down a full whiff from his norm the last 4 years of 8.25. Even worse, his K/9 was a pedestrian 6.91 for the month of June and a disturbing 4.59 for the month of July. So a question for another time and perhaps another article all together is, where have they gone and will they come back? Well I can tell you tonight’s matchup sets up nicely for Wainwright to return to DraftKing‘s points glory. BOLD PREDICTION – 9K’s, 8IP, 0 runs, 4 hits, 1 BB, AND THE WIN. 37 DraftKings points.
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Rick Porcello, SP: $7,400 – Two incredibly talented people have hailed from Chester, NJ. The most talented of all is of course my wife! Any the who, the second most impressive person from Chester, NJ has a homecoming of sorts this afternoon against the Yankees. Porcello has been dirty all year and straight filthy of late, throwing down 33.8 and 24.8 point performances his last couple of turns. I wouldn’t expect big K numbers but he’s certainly capable of providing a nice 20 point floor. I’ll take that as a SP1 in GPP’s or SP2 in leagues or 50/50’s.
Anthony Rizzo, 1B: $5,300 – All I have to say is Yohan Flande. That sounds like a player from the Bundesliga, not a pitcher. He’s also 0-3 with a putrid 5.72 ERA. Flande has pitched well to lefties like Rizzo. Unfortunately for Yohan, Rizzo has hit lefties like Flande to the tune of a .409 wOBA. With the game at Coors and against a lefty, I think the Dong of the Day is in order.
Collin McHugh, SP: $8,400 – The 4-9 record says nothing about the very good season McHugh has had. With a 3.32 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and a K/9 of 10.14. McHugh has been in the top 5 in K/9 all season. Philly’s lineup has been garbage in 2014 ranking 29th in wOBA and wRC+. Their K rate of 21.0% is 11th worst in the majors but the separation between them and the top 6 is a measly .4%. I’d expect a quality start and some big K numbers from the Mick.
Adam Jones, OF: $4,400 – Jones has been ice cold the last few nights but his matchup against lefty J.A Happ could be just what the doctor ordered. Jones is 6/13 lifetime off Happ and typically crushes lefties. His batting average against LHP is .378 and his wOBA is .469. At this price I’m more than happy to bet on a Mark Grace Slumpbuster. Just remember Adam don’t marry yours like Madison Bamgarner.
Ender Inciarte, OF: $2,900 – Since Gerardo Parra got moved, the newly appointed D-Backs lead off hitter has been my favorite of punt plays. He’s average 8.2 points his last 5 games and has only put up one goose egg in the last 10. He’s got speed for days and stole 43 bases at AAA in 2013. He also faces Jeremy Guthrie who many weeks is a punching bag. At $2,900 Ender gives you better return than most players priced between $3,500-$4,000.
Jhonny Peralta, SS: $3,400 – Peralta I’m sure is salivating over his matchup with Brandon Workman. The Red Sox righty has been know to throw up era’s in the 4’s and HR/9’s in the low to mid 1’s, everywhere he plays, whether it be AAA or the Major League level. Quite frankly he stinks and I expect the Cards to put up crooked numbers tonight. If you wanted to stack St. Louis bats I could see it being a good play in GPP’s. Just watch the weather report. I’ll stick to the cheap power bat of Peralta at SS and could see myself grabbing Kolten Wong ($3,800). (Punt point, King me!) I’m going to go with a Shocker Dong of the Night and pick Peralta. Chome ohn Jhonny, yhou chan dho it!
Miguel Montero, C, $3,700: Montero had been very good at points in the year and at other times very blah. He’s been in a blah period for a little bit, and I’m waiting for him to do what he does and get scorching hot. He faces Jeremy Guthrie tonight who loves to give up the home runs. Guthrie is sporting a HR/9 of 1.24 one of the 10 worst in the majors. I have a hunch that Montero could follow up last nights 3/4 with another strong night at the dish.
I’m Only Happy When It Rains
As of right now all my Wainwright love could be for not as the weather report is not looking so good with the chances of a thunderstorm in St. Louis at 80%. I have a feeling they’ll do what they can to get the game in, but plan accordingly.
Doing Lines In Vegas
Houston @ Philadelphia – 8 – Over
Cleveland @ Cincinnati – 7.5 – Over
As always be sure to check the lineups, give a look at the weather and I toast your team with slightly chilled Manischewitz.
Follow me on Twitter @ralphlifshitzbb or challenge me on DraftKings @ PuigRoast