I am equating¬†this one solely on one thing for the Cubbies… and that term is?¬† Pseudo-intellectual. ¬†Joe Maddon does everything different and it’s gotta be the glasses. ¬†He makes everyone want, need or have to be involved in his bullpen. ¬†Basically, he is the united colors of Benetton of managers. ¬†His hydra approach at the bullpen is not only bothersome or troubling for the roster-bater in all of us, it’s damn near impossible to roster and guess which guy it will be today. ¬†The trio of Jason Motte, Hector Rondon,¬†and Pedro Strop¬†all seem to play the part of a closer, but get shuffled around like Joe is playing little game in his head. ¬†I get that some situations warrant certain match-ups, but sometimes it doesn’t make any sense to me. ¬†So for those of you that still care about the Cubs and their six¬†save chances combined between all relievers in the last 14 days, I would roster Motte and Rondon equally, and if I had the space, I would roster Rafael Soriano and hold on tight. ¬†Soriano is going to come in like the new city slicker, with a shiny pair of aldo shoes and end up being the cat’s pajamas for about a minute in Maddon’s mind. ¬†Personally, rostering three guys to garner one stat is a crazy, crazy thing to get wrapped up into and is a waste. ¬†If you are rostering one non-closer reliever to help with ratios, where are you making this roster space up from? ¬†Nowhere is the answer, my friends. ¬†So stick to the straight and narrow for saves for now, don’t chase unless a clear situation opens it’s doors and gives out the good candy on Halloween. ¬†Stick around for some tidbits about the world of relief-dom…Please, blog, may I have some more?
Player projections for each of the next 7 days. A kick-ass DFS lineup optimizer and projections for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo!.
The ESPYS are coming soon, so I decided it might be time to nominate some relief pitchers for mid-season hardware and steal a little bit of ESPN’s ESPYS thunder (that’s just wrong on more than one level) in the process.¬† Anyway, I’ll soon be handing an award to one of the relief pitchers with a chance to regress in a bad way and I’m calling these awards the Jurrjy’s because Jair Jurrjens was a pitcher that was as up and down as I can recall a pitcher being.¬† He was (is, I could say, after all he still exists, somewhere) a BABIP dependent* pitcher because of a low strikeout rate.¬† For instance, here are his 2011 1st half/2nd half¬† ERA splits: 1.87 in 110.2 1st half innings vs 5.88 in a small sample of 41.1 second half innings. ¬†While it might have been better to pick a reliever to name this after, I can’t think of anyone that fits the description better than Jair Jurrjens.¬† The only problem is, I’m not sure if the “winner” is the one whose ERA regresses the most or the one who maintains the mirage.¬† I guess that’s up to the Academy to decide.¬† So without further ado, your 2015 Jurrjy nominees in the “rising ERA” category are:¬† Steve Delabar, middle reliever, Toronto Blue Jays (1.42 ERA /4.05 FIP).¬† Bryan Shaw, middle reliever, Cleveland Indians (2.10 ERA /4.62 FIP).¬† Joakim Soria, closer, Detroit Tigers (2.73 ERA /5.09 FIP).¬† Brad Ziegler, closer, Arizona Diamondbacks (1.45 ERA /3.78 FIP), Darren O’Day, middle reliever, Baltimore Orioles (1.21 ERA /3.17 FIP), and JJ Hoover, middle reliever, Cincinnati Reds (1.31 ERA / 3.10 FIP).¬† (*This article basically claims that pitcher BABIP (Batting Average on Balls In Play) is 75% luck, 13% defense, and 12% pitcher’s skill).Please, blog, may I have some more?
Well, I guess that makes all the sense in the world, because those darn Flock of Seagulls got all in your head in the 80’s. ¬†Then they had the nerve to be in GTA and get you all singing about running. ¬†I don’t even run when chased anymore. ¬†It’s a big game of “ooohhh ya got me”. ¬†So north of the border, they do it all in groups now apparently. ¬†That group started out as a singular to start the year, then a separate individual took over only to fail himself, then they went back to the original guy who had it out of spring. ¬†Now they are on to a group format because I am guessing “strength in numbers” is the thing. ¬†I think “paint by numbers” should be their next move. ¬†So if you are scoring at home, to summarize, that is Cecil, Castro, Cecil, et. all. ¬† Yeah, I mean if I had the offensive potential that the Blue Jays have, and they are being all fiddle and benz with the end game, I would make a move to a more permanent solution. ¬†Don’t be cheap, I think the exchange rate is in your favor or close. ¬†So the committee we are looking at now is a group that consists of Roberto Osuna, Steve Delabar, possibly another occasional save chance for Brett Cecil, Aaron Loup, Prime Minister Stephen Harper, Optimus Prime and any prime number. ¬†From a rostering standpoint, I would own Osuna, Delabar, then Cecil. ¬†If you missed out on all three, just be thankful, because it’s a mess. ¬†But saves bring all the craziness out of people, so that’s why it’s bullpen week and we are getting down to the goods of the HOLD. ¬†Enjoy the rankings, tidbits and the casual barbs at my peers. ¬†Cheers!Please, blog, may I have some more?
This is the Saves Ain’t Got No Face “eff the team managers” edition which will give me a chance to both vent and try to deflect blame for bad calls I’ve made.¬† Joe Maddon of the Cubs decided to go a different route on his closer situation by removing Hector Rondon from the role.¬† For like three days.¬† And I make the call that Pedro Strop had a good chance to take over as closer.¬† Eff Joe Maddon.¬† Then in Tampa (Joe Maddon’s old team.. coincidence??) the following sequence happened:¬† 1. Brad Boxberger gets dinged, Kevin Jepsen becomes the interim closer, (arguably) leapfrogging Jake McGee in the process.¬† 2. Boxberger came back, blew a save.¬† 3. Jake McGee (seemingly) takes over as closer.¬† 4. Kevin Jepsen notches a (random) save.¬† 5. Brad Boxberger (seemingly) regains closer role.¬† As of Sunday, the last 15/30 days for Rays Saves is 2/4 for Jepsen, 3/3 for McGee, 3/6 for Boxberger.¬† Last week I claimed Jake McGee was the new closer.¬† He gets zero save attempts this week.¬† Keep reading folks because this is really just the beginning of the latest twist and turns which will leave you wanting to pull out your hair.¬† (Plus recommendations to follow…)Please, blog, may I have some more?
You ever look at a pitcher and just realize that he’s running out of gas much sooner than you expected him too? ¬†Well, that’s what I am noticing from the Mets closer of the moment, Jeurys Familia. ¬†He is pitching like his best friend died or his pet rock was used in a terrarium for a science fair project. ¬†I am not liking the trend of the K’s disappearing, hell he went four¬†appearances without getting one. ¬†For a guy with a 10-plus K/9, that is worrisome. ¬†The BAA is up for the month, walks are triple from what the previous two¬†months were, and he is trying to pull of a mocha shoe with a green suit. ¬†I mean, come on. ¬†So just the other day,¬†Bobby Parnell came in got a nice tidy 5-out save and it made me think, the way the Mets are and what their needs as a team are, is this the solution that they need? ¬†They needed bullpen help, a nice veteran returning who knows the ropes, walks with a pimp skip (no cane on the field though), and has the ability in previous years to get the job done if need be. ¬†I personally just think Jeurys needs a lessened work load to make him bounce back. ¬†Still, it is worth noticing or monitoring that Bobby P is back, and he is rounding up his bottom and top slags from Queens Point and is in waiting. ¬†Lets see what other bits of delusion I have to¬†scour up for ya. ¬†Enjoy the week… cheers!Please, blog, may I have some more?
With Byron Buxton and Francisco Lindor now called up that basically leaves Jose Peraza as the most intriguing speedster prospect as of now.¬† His path to playing time is muddled even though they have recently moved him to center field because Cameron Maybin has played extremely well there.¬† It is my (unfortunate) opinion that due to his situation Peraza doesn’t matter for 10 or 12 team leagues yet.¬† Onto the recently called up speedster prospects let’s consider their current fantasy value.¬† Mike has done numerous writeups of these players in various places and he most recently wrote that he considers Buxton to be “Leonys Martin with upside”.¬† Steamer/Razzball projects Buxton for 31-6-30-15 .241 in 78 games.¬† Realistically his AVG will likely fall anywhere from .235 to .270 depending mostly on K rate and BABIP.¬† In the minors he was hitting a very mediocre .283 with a 19.0 K% and .332 BABIP.¬† Sure I think he has plenty of upside but don’t expect too much out of Buxton.¬† I would rather hold on to a red hot and perhaps genuinely improved Cameron Maybin than pick up Buxton.¬† Anyway, depending on your league format Buxton has likely been picked up already.¬† I’d say he’s worth a 15% FAAB bid depending on what else you have for SBs and outfielders.Please, blog, may I have some more?
I hate it when the vagueness of an arm injury slams your roster and places the top closer on the DL. ¬†Andrew Miller hit it yesterday with a forearm strain. ¬†How could it be strained if there are fore of them? ¬†I mean aren’t the other three there, to be like, back-up dancers? ¬†The only good thing for you and the Yankees is that there is another top-5 relief pitcher in the mix. ¬†Dellin Betances will take over as the lead sled dog in the saves in the Bronx. ¬†After that, on the off chance you need a third option, there is Adam Warren,¬†which is a deep shot in the dark. ¬†Crazy as that sounds, and I dig that he is still starting, but if this drags out for Miller, he could return to what was excellent form from out of the pen last year. ¬† If by all intents and purposes you are reaching this far down for saves or speculating that the Yankees are in trouble… then stick around for some extra tidbits, ¬†there are a quite few this week. ¬†Cheers!Please, blog, may I have some more?
Last week I implored you to consider your options in selling Steven Souza, a player who seemed to be at his peak at that time.¬† Yes, I told you to consider moving a player that has been stellar so far.¬† The thing is, what a player’s done doesn’t really move me.¬† All I care about is what a player is going to do.¬† That means past stats are only important insofar as they predict future stats.¬† So when I see that a player has hit 15 home runs so far, or stolen 12 bases so far, all I really care about is to what degree is that level of production sustainable.¬† I came to the “sell” conclusion for Steven Souza by using peripheral statstics, primarily his HR/FB% (unsustainable) and K% (too high and likely to not go down much).¬† Going back to a May 4th post, I mentioned¬† offhand that Jake Marisnick was a sell high.¬† His AVG/SLG at the time it was published: .382/.632.¬† His AVG/SLG since that time: .172/.242.¬† That’s not to say I’m a soothsayer.¬† Or to say that’s precisely how regression to the mean works.¬† So why did that happen?¬† Because baseball.¬† But I do think it’s an example of why we, excepting those times when peripheral stats suggest otherwise, should trust the projections and use the peripheral stats they are based on.Please, blog, may I have some more?
For a few days it’s¬†been¬†all quiet on the closer front. ¬†Usually in the lede,¬†I talk about a change in regime and the pluses/minuses and my opinion on¬†it. ¬†There hasn’t been one for two¬†whole weeks… ¬†It’s crazy. ¬†MLB is putting me outta business in the jibing about fantasy closers market. ¬†Where does the unemployment line start?¬† I am only half kidding, and I’m also half crazy too. So that makes me half-something. ¬†So believe it or not, the season is officially 3/8 of the way over. ¬†That is just crazy in itself to even fathom. ¬†I think I have rambled on about nothing long enough… let’s talk about someone, anyone, shall we? ¬†I like the rebound to form that¬†Mark Melancon has shown, due to a¬†K/9 of 4.68. ¬†I haven’t seen a true one-outcome reliever before, but if you own him, I would sell for a better product. ¬†You can probably get by on two things in your favor. ¬†One, his name uses letters that can be read in a left-to-right format, which, from what I am understanding, is standard for reading purposes. ¬†Two, he has 6 saves in the last two¬†weeks and when people look to see how he has been doing, they will see that he is tied for the lead during that time frame in saves. ¬†Listen, if you need saves and you own Melancon, I am not saying go out and sell him cause I said so. ¬†I am saying swap him and a extra player and see if you can get an improvement on the K category. ¬†The other owner will be so smitten that he got a closer and another player for just a closer, he won’t realize that he was jobbed. ¬†Side note, make sure he doesn’t read this blurb first or the jig is up. ¬†Stick around more snippets of informative justice are on the way…Please, blog, may I have some more?
This is the SAGNOF Special “broken record edition” where I repeat things I’ve touched on in the past.¬† Danny Santana bad.¬† Rajai Davis good.¬† But let’s start with: sell Steven Souza.¬† Why?¬† So many reasons, but the most important are his 37% K rate and 35.7% HR/FB.¬† The K rate is bound to come down some, but how much?¬† 32-35% might still be too high for Souza to have great value going forward, once the HR/FB rate regresses. To put that HR/FB rate in perspective, last year’s leader among qualified batters was Jose Abreu, with 26.9%.¬† Nelson Cruz‘s HR/FB rate was “only” 20.4% last year.¬† So on the one hand you can be very successful with a much lower HR/FB rate, on the other hand if Souza’s HR/FB rate were halved and we assume that half of his home runs were instead FB outs, his AVG drops from¬† .238 to .206.¬† While he can in fact have value with such a low AVG, the problem is, will the Rays send him down?¬†¬† To look at it another way, think of how low his average might be during a 3-4 week home run drought.¬† So who to trade for?¬† If you want a similar type player maybe Charlie Blackmon or Gregory Polanco.¬† If you need some pitching maybe Jake Arrieta.¬† In any case, I’m trying to tell you to trade him as a player batting .238 with 10 home runs and 7 stolen bases, because that’s what he’s done.¬† So if you trade him make sure you get plenty in return because you are assuming the risk that he can lower his K% down to 32%-ish while maintaining a HR/FB of above 20%, because if he can do those things he can be pretty good.¬† But I don’t think his value will ever be higher than it is right now.Please, blog, may I have some more?