I figured it was finally time to switch things up and have an OBP-only post every now and then (thanks to the many of you who commented with this idea). This will be an attempt to run through a lot more players, instead of the usual handful I cover in the OPS posts. Iām still working through the format and how often Iāll do this, so feel free to chime in with your thoughts in the comments. Weāre only one month into the season, so itās important not to overreact, but there are quite a few players that have produced interesting results. Hereās my take for what it means in OBP leagues:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Player projections for each of the next 7 days. A kick-ass DFS lineup optimizer and projections for DraftKings, FanDuel, and Yahoo!.
Who could have predicted that Justin Morneau would have a career revival after moving to Coors Field? Nearly everybody. Yes, heās clearly benefitting from his favorable home park, but heās also hitting well on the road. He appears to be swinging at nearly everything and, fortunately, is hitting it so far. However, this approach isnāt sustainable, even in Coors. I think heās a great sell-high candidate if you can find somebody who believes that heās going to maintain anywhere near this level of performance due to his new home ballpark. Even with some regression, I think the park and aggressive approach will allow him to have a noticeable improvement from his past couple seasons, with a .280/.350/.480 line going forward. This is roughly his career slash line, so itās a reasonable expectation for him. Anyway, here are some other players on my mind and what it means for OPS and OBP leagues:Please, blog, may I have some more?
Everything comes back to your leagueās settings. If steals have a decent amount of weight and you canāt punt them, then you might have to deploy a guy like Dee Gordon. In theory, itās nice to have a team filled with guys who have power and speed, but those guys are rarely undervalued. You donāt need me to tell you that Gordon wonāt continue producing a .373/.421/.510 line. If you can sell high, then by all means do so. Although the reality is that he may have been a waiver wire guy and itās tough to get anything of value from them in a trade this early in the season. Heāll still get steals when he gets on base, but I wouldnāt be surprised to see his OBP drop 100 points and his slugging drop 200 points going forward. That can still be useful, depending on how deep your league is and how heavily steals are weighted. Anyway, here are some other guys who I expect to produce different results than they have so far this year and what it means in OBP and OPS leagues:Please, blog, may I have some more?
So long, farewell, goodnight, Prince Fielder. One of the most disappointing starts to the 2014 season has been Mr. Fielder with his .162/.205/.216 line.Ā To exacerbate things, his offseason move to Texas led to him being hyped heading into drafts and his current owners paying top dollar to roster his .421 OPS. Following a disappointing 2013 season, his slow start has caused some owners to panic, pointing to his inability to walk or hit a home run. So what do I recommend doing at this point? Buy Prince Fielder while you still can. I really donāt like using āsmall sample sizeā to dismiss early starts, because it feels like the lazy way out. A better approach would be to see that Fielder has had 0 for 4 games against Alex Cobb, David Price, etc., notice that his batted ball distribution hasnāt dramatically changed, and remember why he was rated so highly in drafts. Even with the slow start, Iād be surprised if Fielder didnāt improve on last yearās .279/.362/.457 line this year, especially the slugging. And while itās on my mind, hereās a few other players who have had surprising starts and what it means for OPS and OBP leagues:Please, blog, may I have some more?
From the 30,000 foot view, itās hard to see imperfections. This applies to corporate jargon (Iām a customer-facing, solution-oriented go-getter), this yearās Lollapalooza lineup, and even Chicago Cubs outfielder Junior Lake. As an aside, I was impressed with how unimpressive this yearās Lolla lineup is. Maybe itās just me, but this will be only the second year since itās been in Chicago that I wonāt be going (last year was the first). But thereās no use crying over spilled neutral milk hotel. Instead, letās always look on the bright side of life. The Fantasy Baseball God(s?) have provided us with many late-round and even waiver wire options this year that can bolster our team in OPS and OBP leagues, beginning with Mr. Lake.Please, blog, may I have some more?
My fellow Razzballers: there is a massive epidemic that needs to be stopped! Itās what I call āDavid Ortiz Disease.ā I need your help in containing this outbreak that has led fantasy owners everywhere to shun a certain type of old and injury-prone player (more on that later), causing their price to plummet relative to their production and hindering the chances of every would-be owner. The most surprising aspect of this disease is that it applies to players who are coming off productive seasons. Unfortunately, authorities have been unable to contain this disease to a specific league, causing neither keeper nor re-draft fantasy owners to be immune. However, some old and injury-prone players will not be undervalued in drafts this year, such as Carlos Beltran, Alfonso Soriano, and Jacoby Ellsbury. What could they possibly have in common to prevent them from being undervalued and how does this affect fantasy baseball, particularly OPS leagues?Please, blog, may I have some more?
Happy New Year everybody! Iāve been in hibernation for the most part this offseason, aside from this, but decided to awaken from my slumber to tell you a little secret. Although itās not really a secret since I repeatedly made it clear last year when I professed my love early and often. And it wouldnāt be a secret anymore once I typed it here, would it? Nevertheless, Iām doubling down on my Josh Donaldson star-gazing and, for those of you who didnāt read the title, proclaim that heāll be a top tier third baseman for 2014 in OPS leagues.Please, blog, may I have some more?
And that might be conservative. I’ve seen people projecting him to steal 60, 70, or even 80 bases since that’s what recent league leaders have done. However, I see no reason to try to project Hamiltonās steals by comparing him to recent league leaders. He is not any of those other players and has demonstrated that he is clearly an anomaly in terms of speed, which means that it makes sense to treat him as an individual case. Anyway, hereās my thinking, assumptions, and theĀ Billy Hamilton steal calculation:
500 at bats x .295 OBP x running 80% of time x successful 85% of time = 100 SBsPlease, blog, may I have some more?
Like any stereotypical rock band or movie franchise, Iām going to try to repeat success by sticking with the same formula. Iām referring to last weekās post about The Next Chris Davis, which led to a number of great suggestions for next yearās breakout players. This week, while I still have your attention, I want to focus on the other side: players who you expect to take a step (or two, or three) backwards in 2014. I titled this post after Josh Hamiltonās 2013 performance, but it really could have been named after any number of disappointing performances. So, who do you expect to be a bust next year? And while youāre at it, can you think of any bands with a second album that was better than their debut or a movie franchise that had a better sequel than the original? Iām looking forward to all of your thoughts, which will provide me with some topics to endure the cold, winter months that some call the offseasonā¦Please, blog, may I have some more?
Iām going to assume that whoever is still reading fantasy baseball articles at this point in the year is a dedicated fantasy baseball player. Thatās fair, right? So I wanted to use this article to get your thoughts on some of the best breakout players for 2014 while I still have your attention. On some level, Iām looking for who might be the next Chris Davis. This is kind of ironic because, before Mr. Davis, you would have called this the next Jose Bautista. And so on. So who are some of the players youāre expecting to take the next step in 2014?Please, blog, may I have some more?