I have gone over the preseason, in-season, and shortly in 5-6 months, the postseason love for all things Tim Anderson.  No, the another SB dude from the other, other side of Chicago.  Which in my mind is a triangle, or from the angle that I am drinking at, it’s a complete hypotenuse.  Yoan Moncada over the last 11 days has proven that the Go-Go Sox are in full affect, or flavor.  Whatever the millennials wanna call it.  Is rad still a thing?  Never the who, he has 4 steals over the last 11 games and the propensity, which we thought was potential in the preseason for a lot of the southsiders, is totally a legit thing.  The license to steal (like an opposite version of Bond, or a Fredo Bandido of steals) has the Sox players that hit towards the top of the lineup, when on base, gives them full autonomy to take it.  And by it, I mean the steal of a bag.  Not only do I love it, I would condone a trade for Yoan at some expense that is a sort of overspend.  His hit rate screams breakout, and I mean who doesn’t like a screamer.  Lets everyone know who is laying down the law.  Gives us all a little extra wink-wink.  Extra is right!  He has hit near the top of the order for days and it should continue.  The one thing that bad teams are good at is ulterior fantasy goodies, and steals is definitely one of those stats. So do yourself a favor, go propose to the Yoan owner and say would you have and hold me forever, and ever, and trade me him for a slightly over pay.  Your stats won’t hate you in the morning.  Let’s see what else is hopping on the good foot and stealing the good things in the saves and steals department.  But with charts for her pleasure…or yours.

Picking on catchers in daily roster moves is fun.  Here are the SV leaders for steals against this season. Not ever stat is a good stat, especially when you have catchers and the frequency of steals against.  It isn’t always their fault, but it is not, not their fault.  Ya dig?

Please, blog, may I have some more?

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The stolen base department is always a tough sledding affair.  It is filled with guessing and presumptuous displays of picking the right guy in the right situation.  Steals are very hard to come by on a regular basis currently so the steals are a “trending downward” property. So hitting on one SAGNOF flyer for the week or via the waiver wire for immediate returns is just a hard thing to predict.  At best, the wire fellas will net you one steal a week, and that is being generous.  So looking at the trends “against teams, by teams that steal” is the best model for the stolen base business. Upcoming matchups for the week are the way to go if you wanna guess, but guess with style and maybe a better idea of who is stealing on who and how often.  Taking not only advantage of a catcher skill set but a team skill set for their propensity to give of the thievery.  So here is the SAGNOF report for this week with a scheduler forecaster for the 10-most frequent base stealing teams and their schedule for the week…

Please, blog, may I have some more?
   

Speed kills. Whether that be by the arm or legs. But this isn’t no SAGNOF post, this is the weekly look at strictly bullpens.  At what point do we stop looking at velocity and its effectiveness being a correlative?  Probably never, as the statcast era has never looked stronger as geeks type in the square roots of derivatives to figure out the best angle of deflection for them to walk down the stairs in their parents basement.  It’s a tale as old as time, and people like me mock math and numbers because, well… I am lazy.  Numbers always existed, but now they are so finite that you can get a feet per second drop of a the pin that no one can hear.  So maybe I should delve into the fray here and take a look at the early season velocity for closers and how they compare to last year and how they correlate to K success. Velocity isn’t the end all be all of reliever success, but is fully in the forefront when studs like Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen are teetering on slow-pokes compared days of yore.  So I made a hand dandy chart, comparing last years average fastball velocity, K/9 and Swinging strike % to this years to see where the relationship between success, worry and full on panic in the closer realms exist.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
   

When the most logical thing isn’t just that, that is the argumentative side to fantasy baseball.  The Royals, and most importantly Ned Yost, are outsmarting all us fake baseballers.  In turn, he is sapping the value from one of the favorites of SAGNOF-dom. Through three games, the uber Razzball fan favorite Jon Jay has hit leadoff in all three affairs.  Negating the leadoff value of Whit Merrifield. I touched briefly this offseason on the importance of hitting in the ultimate spot in the order and how it correlates to the outcomes of stolen bases. The interesting case with Merrifield? It’s that last year he hit in the top spot 111 times and also the final 101 games he played in the season from that top perch. That was last June, and I hate bringing up old stuff but I feel like it is pertinent to the here and now… he basically blossomed when he was left there to think for himself and made Whit Merrifield what you drafted Whit Merrifield this year to be. He amassed 28 steals, batted .282/.313/.449 with great counting stats from a middle infielder.  Now he has emerged as a second-in-the-order cog in the Royals order.  This is what happens when you are too good of a baseballer, but struggle in comparison to the more superior on-base percentage maven in Jon Jay.  (Never thought I would write that last sentence, ever.)  So if you drafted Merrifield this year, be afraid…very afraid.  the steals may not be there as much as you hoped for until he regains that penultimate spot in the batting order. The Royals approach here isn’t wrong. Jay is a better get on-base player.  Merrifield is a better fantasy player though, and batting second is sapping his value right now and basically the gist of this whole thing is JOHN JAY HAS VALUE.  I am not saying go into full-on punt formation, but backing yourself up with a MI option is a good idea. Maybe not for tomorrow, but forward-thinking type stuff.  There, after all, have only been 11 stolen bases from the leadoff spot this year and 64 totals steals across all of the stolen base universe.  Patience is not really the SAGNOF way, but exercising it may be the right thing to do right now…

Please, blog, may I have some more?
   
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