To slay evokes feelings of power and always denotes conquest. There is no better description of victory than, “he/she slayed their opponent.” Well, filleted also works, but that just gets me craving for sashimi. Anyways, one of the cute things about the tv show, Buffy the Vampire Slayer, outside of Buffy being cute, was the dichotomy of the feminine and masculine morphing into one. Or maybe it’s just sex sells. Whatever. What hasn’t been cute, though, are the many ways Danny Duffy has been…..a slayer of WHIP and FIP. Grey hates him. Should you?

For full disclosure, I’ve been a fan of Duffy for some time. Need proof? No? Well, here it is anyways. A half pence earned is a…..uh, a long way from getting rich.

So, I obviously have a bias when it comes to Duffy, but I will try and let the numbers do the talking. Try being the operative word, as we all use numbers to tell “our” story.

The season-long numbers make me want to whisper…..meh. 8.16 K/9 is fine, but well off the mid-9 rates he was spinning just a few years ago. The 4.20 BB/9 makes me want to electric scooter down to the nearest dispensary. The 1.5 HR/9 makes me want to scooter into oncoming traffic after partaking in the goods from the local dispensary. The ERA of 4.59 and xFIP of 4.96 make me hope that the battery in my electric scooter blows up and engulfs me into a ball of flames before that 18-wheel truck does what 18-wheel trucks do.

Now, the last two games, Duffy pitched 13 innings without allowing an earned run. He also struck out 8 and 9 batters respectively. Duffy the Batter Slayer is back!!! Unfortunately, he gave up 6 earned runs against CLE three games ago. Two games before the three games I just talked about, Duffy struck out 7 in each and only allowed 1 earned run. The game before those two games before the initial three games, Duffy allowed 6 earned runs to HOU. If standardized testing has taught me one thing, it is that Duffy will allow 6 earned runs in his next outing. Anyways, the game before the HOU game, Duffy pitched 7 scoreless innings and struck out 10 against OAK.

Why am I babbling about his recent game log? Below is a chart for teams against left-handed pitching for the season. Psssst….Duffy is left-handed.

TEAM K% SLG
CHW 25.5% (2nd) .390 (21st)
MIN 23.8% (7th) .378 (23rd)
CLE 18.9% (30th) .426 (6th)
MIL 21% (24th) .378 (24th)
HOU 20.3% (27th) .450 (4th)
OAK 23.8% (6th) .401 (16th)
LAA 20.4% (26th) .375 (25th)

CHW, MIN, and OAK are all top 10 in striking out against LHP. They are also also in bottom 10 for slugging. Surprised that Duffy dominated them all? On the flip side, CLE, HOU, and LAA are all in the bottom 10 for striking out against LHP, while CLE and HOU are top 10 in slugging. The Angels are near the bottom in slugging, but they do have some powerful righties in that lineup. MIL doesn’t strike out often against lefties and they have some power righties, but they have a lot of lefties in that lineup. It also must be mentioned that after getting blown up by HOU, Duffy pitched against them the next outing and shut them down.

Duffy is dominating the teams he should be dominating. He’s also struggled against teams that he should struggle against. EZ PZ.

There’s also the whole velocity thing. Early in the season, the fastball was clocking in at 91 mph. It didn’t get into the 94 mph range until his 9th start. Duffy has made 20 starts this season. The first 10? 29 earned runs and 45 strikeouts. The past 10? 19 earned runs and 58 strikeouts. The fastball velocity has been in the 94-96 mph range.

Is Duffy an ace? No. But what makes him great is that he throws hard, misses bats, and, most importantly, is predictable. He will more than likely dominate the matchups that he’s supposed to. In bad matchups, you’re not tempted to start him, which provides tremendous value in and of itself. Here’s the final caveat. He does have the upside to be must-start material.

VERDICT

 

   
  1. Big league choo says:
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    10 team dynasty 5×5 OBP

    My Goldy/mikolas for trea turner/sixto sanchez

    Which side?

  2. belcamp burns me in the arse says:
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    in a 12 team ESPN keeper league , Who should I replace Austin Meadows with???

  3. DodgerWindowClosed says:
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    I have Ryu and Hendricks at the back of my rotation. Duffy better than either of them?

  4. Kruk_Ain't_An_Athlete says:
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    Reliever question – 5×5 (saves+Holds)
    Rank the top 3 of these RPs please: H.Rondon, Winkler, Gsellman, Jeffress, Robertson, Yates, and Tepera.

      • Kruk_Ain’t_An_Athlete says:
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        @Son: Thanks. I might go after Andrus…ROS projections are better than Peraza. What if I can give up a $6 Peraza for a $15 Andrus? Does it still look good?

  5. Sabo Knows Sabo says:
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    12 team mixer, redraft, in 1st place. Looking to keep pitching ratios strong into the stretch run. My staff:

    Verlander, Cole, Maeda, Heaney, JorZim, Cahill (Wacha DL)
    RP: Boxberger, Familia, Seranthony, Romo, Yates, Hildenberger, Brach, Givens

    Guys on the wire: Duffy, Musgrove, Lugo, Ty Ross, Odorizzi, Gsellman,

    I’m hoping the right pieces move at the deadline (Hand, Rodney, Britton), but regardless of that, should I switch out any of the starters? I’m short on moves and FAAB budget too, so I would be hoping to avoid making a lateral move.

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @Sabo Knows Sabo: Only move I’d look to make would be to scoop up Gsellman. Other than that, looks good.

  6. Hebrew Hammer says:
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    Thanks for the write up. I’ve had Duffy on my bench since his 10K outing against Oakland. Everytime I ask Grey if I should start (except against Cleveland no need to ask) he says bench or he doesn’t like him lol.

    Unfortunately, Duffy is under contract (16 team Dynasty keeper). I am in first face in the division, 11-4, and need the SP points.

    I lost any confidence in Duffy after start to the season and have no belief in the KC offense for run support.

    Saying that, he has put up monster numbers on my bench recently.

    What am I to do?

    Thanks!

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @Hebrew Hammer: Grey’s a hater!!!

      Play him in the favorable matchups.

  7. Vash says:
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    Would you trade Mazara for Fernando Tatis JR. is a H2H Keeper league?

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @Vash: I would, but you should hit up Ralph, as he’s the prospect guru….my apologies…he’s the ProspectJesus

  8. bobbo says:
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    Would you consider Duffy over Gausman in a 12 team 6×6 with BAA?

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @bobbo: I prefer Duffy

  9. Chuckles says:
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    Newcomb, Manea, Weaver, Duffy ROS rank? Thanks!

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @Chuckles: Weaver, Duffy, Newcomb, Manea

  10. Hebrew Hammer says:
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    Play Duffy tonight versus Minnesota? Thankyou!

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @Hebrew Hammer: I’m playing him across the board tonight. Good luck to me…and possibly you

  11. Alex S says:
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    I’m way late to the party but I’m hoping he can keep up what he’s been doing lately. My pitching staff is in shambles right now and I could use his stuff.

    • Son

      Son says:
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      @Alex S: Me too Alex. Me too

Comments are closed.