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The Verducci Effect as explained by Verducci, “Pitchers generally feel the effects of abusive increases in workload the next year, not the season in which they were pushed.”  So to avoid this, clubs shutdown or skip young pitchers (this applies to those 25 years old and younger).  In fantasy baseball, lots of championships are won in September, H2H and otherwise.  If you have rookie pitchers, it’s imperative — ooh, strong word — that you pay attention to which pitchers are going to be shutdown or skipped.  Anyway, here’s a list of some pitchers who may be shutdown in September:

Mat Latos – The Padres are playing right now so they can draft Nadir Bupkus in 2010, so there’s no reason to push Latos.

Brett Cecil – At about even with his workload from last year.  Ricciardi will probably put the brakes on Cecil in September, if he can’t trade him for Pujols before then.

Josh Johnson – He’s pitched a lot of innings before, but not last year and he’s already complained of a weak shoulder this year.  I don’t think he gets shutdown, but it might be an acorn to store over the winter in that giant cave of useless facts that sits on your shoulders.

Joba Chamberlain – Already 20 innings over from last year and the Yankees are already skipping him.  “Joba Rules” currently are start every 9th day and give up four runs.

Clay Buchholz – Where there’s a Yankee mention, there needs to be a Red Sox mention.  That’s in the Sports Blog Handbook.

Rick Porcello – He’s already being skipped and will probably get shutdown quick-fast in September.

Max Scherzer – Already flying past his workload from last year.  The only thing that’s keeping his innings in check is his inability to get out of the 6th inning.

David Price – Nice to see he’ll be unusable next year too so I have a reason to avoid him in drafts.

Yovani Gallardo – His jump from 2008 to 2009 will be insane, but in 2007 he pitched almost 190 innings.  So it shouldn’t be until late September when he’s technically in the red.

Brett Anderson/Dallas Braden/Trevor Cahill – Already over their workload from the previous year.  Then again, Beane will probably pitch them through September then trade them for three number one picks.

Tommy Hanson – Has about 30 innings left before he’s in the red.  If you own him, you’re already in the black, your leaguemates are blue and my bathroom walls are eggshell.

  1. IowaCubs

    IowaCubs says:
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    Thanks for this, Grey. In a 15 team Dynasty league keeper, I’m trying to swindle someone out of David Wright for next season. Would you trade Scherzer and Feliz for Wright?

  2. IowaCubs

    IowaCubs says:
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    Someone you missed out on is Randy Wells. Sure he’s 26, but he began his pitching career late as a pro after switching from catcher in 2003. He’s already exceeded his innings pitched from last season 124 in 08 v. 139 in 09.

    During a Cubs broadcast the other day, the announcers mentioned the possibility of the Cubs shutting Wells down in September.

  3. IowaCubs

    IowaCubs says:
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    @Grey: I meant Neftali Feliz, not Peter Happy.

  4. royce! says:
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    Any thoughts on whether or not the Dodgers will shut down Kershaw? They increased his IP by a third between 2007 and 2008, and if they did so this year, he’d pitch around 210. But I’ve seen estimates of 180 IP for him this year, and if the Dodgers want him to not go over this and pitch through the playoffs (yeah, assuming they make it to the WS is a leap), it seems they’ll have to shut him down in mid-Sept.

  5. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @IowaCubs: Yeah, Happ’s 26 too, so they were left off.

    @IowaCubs: I figured it was Neftali.

    @royce!: They might skip him once or twice, or pull him early, but I don’t think they shut him down.

  6. Stephen says:
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    Thanks Grey, I love reading these. However, I found your method about the number of breaking pitches (plus the number of total pitches from year to year) to seem just as reliable. Verducci has all the high profile aura surrounding his method, but I think it is becoming less unflappable in recent years.

  7. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Stephen: That was Rudy’s method, not mine. Though I did enjoy reading it too.

  8. Frank Rizzo says:
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    Do the Tigers shut Porcello down and insert him back as a starter if they make the playoffs? Not sure how it works.

  9. mgeoffriau

    mgeoffriau says:
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    Bud Norris or Mat Latos for some extra innings over the next few weeks?

  10. Stephen says:
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    @Grey: Oops. Either way, better method than Verducci

  11. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Frank Rizzo: They could, but in a short series I’m nto sure he would be necessary. Probably pitch out of the bullpen.

    @mgeoffriau: Latos

  12. Pete says:
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    Another name that might be interesting to add into the fold is Marc Rzepczynski.

    He’s at 131.0 IP through 3 levels (AA, AAA, MLB) this year. He pitched 121.0 in A ball last year. It’s not like Toronto has anything to play for and it seems pretty clear that he’s blossomed into a future cog in their rotation.

    Of course, I have personal interest in this since my league counts anyone under 75 IP as a “free” minor league keeper. Here’s hoping they shut him down soon…

  13. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    tigers get huff,this might help us huff owners,cant hurt

  14. Frank Rizzo says:
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    @AL KOHOLIC: It can hurt if he’s platooned. I’m not sure what happens with him and Guillen and Thames now.

    Maybe the change of scenery and moving to a team with playoff potential will spark him. I hope so as an owner and a Tiger fan.

  15. bwass says:
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    My team has Latos, Price and Hanson. Its a deep keeper league and I have only 6 pickups… I am already in the playoffs. Do I have a chance come mid-Sept with these three or should I drop one or 2 for some mediocre SPs?

    Pedro
    Nippert
    D Hernandez
    Kawakami
    Vandenhurk
    O Perez
    Villanueva

    Its a deep league… Another option would be to just hold until playoff time.

  16. mrbaseball says:
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    hey Grey what about the Verducci Effect on Johnny Cueto :)

  17. mrbaseball says:
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    Rick Porcello – hey man that means I would be losing 1 strike out per start missed

  18. mrbaseball says:
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    did young pitchers always have problems pitching inning in their young major league career or is this something new because of the way they been used in high school and college

  19. mrbaseball says:
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    Mat Latos – The Padres are playing right now so they can draft Nadir Bupkus in 2010, OR Strasburg

  20. Martin says:
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    Grey- I have joba, oswalt, beckett, DLR, hanson, kuroda, nieman. The staff isnt looking to good right now and the trade deadline just past!

  21. mrbaseball says:
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    Clayton Kershaw does he also fall into the Verducci Effect

  22. mrbaseball says:
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    47 Commish Cauda (formerly Mike) Says:
    August 17th, 2009 at 10:48 am
    @mrbaseball:

    What can I say? It’s a deep 16-team league that starts 6 SP’s. That 6th SP is always fluid.

    I was laughing at you staff because it reminds of mine in a deep league also – you drafted or picked up my players

  23. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @Frank Rizzo: arg,frank dont say that P word,yeah a platoon would kill him

  24. Steve says:
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    I’d be happy for Scherzer to be shut down right now.

  25. Dingo says:
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    At this point, whenever I hear “Joba Rules,” I think of “O’Doyle Rules,” complete with Joba driving my ERA and WHIP right off a cliff.

  26. No more “Jobacum” nickname for Scherzer; from now on, I’m calling him “Maxi Pad.”

  27. SamYo says:
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    Wow, I got home and saw the D-Backs are down 0-7 against the Braves, first thought = ouch Jobacum, then I saw its only 1 earned. What a relief.

  28. Dingo says:
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    @SamYo: Yeah – crazy MLB scoring rules. Somehow he can give up 7 runs, but only 1 of them is “earned” because of his own stupid throwing error. His official line so far is actually surprisingly good for someone pitching with a 0-7 deficit.

  29. Steve says:
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    @Dingo: @SamYo: It’s annoying when you can’t blame another fielder for a run-scoring error.

  30. Scott says:
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    Scherzer 7 runs, 1 earned. Ticker relief.

  31. Steve says:
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    @Scott: Not any more.

  32. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Pete: True

    @AL KOHOLIC: Thanks for the heads up!

    @bwass: I’d hold tight for now.

    @mrbaseball: True on Strasburg. I think it’s fairly new way to look at young pitchers.

    @mrbaseball: Kershaw will if he pitches another fifty or so innings, but he had this happen to him last year and it didn’t seem like it effected him.

    @Steve: Ha!

    @Dingo: Yup

    @VanHammersly: Ha!

    @Scott: Yup.

  33. Steve says:
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    And that’s that. Ah well, the 7 Ks were nice.

  34. Steve says:
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    Norris v Florida?
    Parra @ Pirates?
    Feldman v Twins?
    Ollie P v Braves?
    None of the above?

    ERA and WHIP already in the tank…

  35. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Start ‘em all if the ERA and WHIP are in the crapper? Or impossible? I wouldn’t start any of them. Parra would be first though.

  36. mrbaseball says:
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    Tigers acquired DH Aubrey Huff from the Orioles for RHP Brett Jacobson.

  37. Steve says:
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    It’s roto, looking for Ks and a possible win.

    Which I shouldn’t be, I know.

  38. Razzin says:
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    Mini-donkey does it again.

  39. Dad says:
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    @Grey: Helpful article. I’ve unfortunately got Hanson/Scherzer/Gallardo, but I’m over my innings pace so hopefully I’ll be ok.

    Question: I’ve got an open slot and looking for Runs/RBI/OPS. FA schmohawk options include: Byrd, Kouzmanoff, Venable, Gomes, Francour, Overbay. Which one?

    Pick up a 2nd of those over my H Matsui or Fowler? Thanks.

  40. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @mrbaseball: Yeah, mentioned above.

    @Steve: Parra and Perez, but I wouldn’t start them in any league.

    @Razzin: Sweet!

    @Dad: Venable, Overbay

  41. SamYo says:
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    Start Nolasco tomorrow at Houston ?

  42. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @SamYo: I would, but it’s risky.

  43. Mike says:
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    Which side in a trade would you want: Adrian Gonzalez for Buerhle/Ibanez.

  44. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Mike: Adrian

  45. Steve says:
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    Grrr. Borbon sitting. I know it’s Liriano, but the guy’s hot – why not let him play?

  46. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Liriano’s a lefty.

  47. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Yeah, but still. Doesn’t Washington know I need steals?

  48. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    tori hunter sitting?

  49. mrbaseball says:
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    Max Scherzer – Already flying past his workload from last year.

    Max Scherzer was pounded for nine runs in five innings

  50. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    @Grey: he just wont go away,glad ive stuck with jones

  51. Corey says:
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    Grey, thanks for ansering my post about Johnson yesterday! I have carpenter, should I be looking to sell very highly on him, or do you think he’s back to where he can be a number one annually?

  52. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Byrd or Dukes right now?

  53. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Corey: I think Carpenter’s always goign to be an injury risk, but he’s a solid starter when healthy.

    @Steve: Byrd

  54. Corey says:
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    I guess my major concern is his longevity. I’m wondering if I should sell very high right now, or try to ride this train into next year?

  55. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Corey: He’ll be a health risk next year, but he’ll still be dominate if healthy. Depends what you can get for him.

  56. Roger Dorn's Nemesis says:
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    @Grey: In an 11 team keeper where 35-40 guys are generally kept across all the teams, which of these two guys are better values: Ryan Zimmerman in the 5th rd or Yovanni in the 7th? I’m not super excited about either, but Lastings Milledge in the 8th worked out worse.

    Thanks as always for the feedback..

  57. Lava says:
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    @AL KOHOLIC: Yeah, I dropped him in both leagues, but the only way I’ll feel bad about it is if he *doesn’t* hit just this one home run, and then go another week in between hitting another.

  58. john says:
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    Is Lilly startable tonight?..He’s just off the DL but it is at Petco?

  59. Robert says:
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    @Grey: Does Rios have any value left? He is really making me sick.

  60. Steve says:
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    Why did Morneau leave the game?

  61. Corey says:
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    Uh-oh! Dizziness is back. Beware all!

  62. Tom_Emanski says:
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    I finally got myself to drop Garrett Jones (replaced by Carlos Gonzalez) before today’s games and he hits a HR.

    So for those keeping score at home (no one), I picked up Jones after the big part of his surge, owned him during his relative cold streak, and then dropped him before a HR game. AWESOME!

  63. So glad I was stubborn and never dropped Vlad the Hammer…

  64. Roger Dorn's Nemesis says:
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    @Grey: Right now I’m looking at:
    4th – Hamilton
    9th – Youk
    11th – Wieters (I clearly found your blog after my draft)
    16th – Pedroia
    17th – Wainwright
    22nd – Beckham

    I’ve been planning on keeping Yovanni but Zimm’s hot streak combined w/ Gallardo’s workload and general mediocrity have me 2nd guessing.

  65. BigFatHippo says:
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    Pujols goes deep………….yawn……………….grass is green, sky is blue, flowers smell good, weed smells good, flowers are weed and grass is not sky. Hmmmm, sleep deprivation makes Hippos strange………………

  66. Roger Dorn's Nemesis says:
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    @Elijah: Nemesis.. I like the name.

    Yeah, I unfortunately didn’t find the site until April when I was googling kila ka’aihue, one of my minor league draft picks. I have to say I’d draft a little different after a few months of keeping up w/ both Grey and the comments section. Funny site w/ solid advice. Still looks like I’m going to cash in my 2 money leagues, but had some idiot draft selections looking back (ie: Wieters in the 11th)

  67. Corey says:
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    Am I selling too short if I’m going after a Rollins or Tulo type?

  68. big o says:
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    @BigFatHippo:
    anyone who has ever frequented washington square (in nyc) will tell you that it’s best to take the time and smell the weed .
    otherwise , it’s catnip before your catnap .

  69. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Diaz over Dukes while McLousy is out?

  70. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: I only start Diaz vs. lefties.

  71. Tom says:
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    Hey Grey, do you like Lester or Wainwright for the rest of the year?

  72. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tom: Both, in reverse order.

  73. Is it a bad thing if 1/3 of my starters are on the shutdown list? heh.

  74. Tom says:
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    Earlier in the game, Phillips and Hershiser were talking about Lasorda’s induction into the Brooklyn baseball HOF. The other dude said “He contributed about 4 innings to Brooklyn.”

    Then, Phillips says “but he probably kept all the restaurants in business.”

    Hershiser was silent.

  75. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tom: Ha! Nice.

  76. @Tom:

    Still chuckle remembering when they swapped out Tommy’s jersey for one that said ‘Lasagna”.

  77. Tom says:
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    As I remember, Wild Berry told Grey that Steve Phillips would be a good Fantasy player. After that quote, I now like Phillips for two reasons.

  78. Robert says:
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    @Grey: Who would you go with- Votto vs Lincecum, S. Drew vs Martinez, Beckham vs Meche? Actually, which one would you sit? Thanks

  79. thebestspencerintheworld says:
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    so, would you trade Hanson for Kershaw? my friend offered this to me and at first I was thinking, wow great trade. but now, i’m not positive.

    I have hanson.

  80. thebestspencerintheworld says:
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    really?

    i’m in 7th, and JUST out of the playoffs.

    can you tell me why you wouldn’t make it? i thought it was a steal!

  81. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @thebestspencerintheworld: They’re apples for apples, so it’s not really a trade I’d make. I’d prefer Kershaw by a hair, so if you want to make it, I won’t stand in your way. Kershaw’s walks do scare me though. Hanson is also liable to get shutdown before Kershaw, so that’s another point in Kershaw’s favor.

  82. thebestspencerintheworld says:
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    well the way I’m seeing it, is that the Braves are still in the playoff race so they may keep him going. same for the dodgers. so i don’t know if they’ll be shut down as soon as you’re saying.

  83. Doc

    Doc says:
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    Gregg out as closer, Marmol and Guzman co-closers for now. Guzman has been pitching better.

  84. Lava says:
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    Thanks Doc!

  85. Jo says:
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    If im not starting aramis should I trade him and hanson for cliff lee, or him and gallardo for lee?

  86. Jo says:
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    also, a decision i have to make for next week: start hanson@ philly, price @ det, or floyd @ bos? I only need to use 1 of them

  87. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Jo: I think you can get a lot more in a trade for Aarmis. I’d start Hanson.

    Also, please take followups to the newest post.

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