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What’s up, homes?  Why isn’t it officially summer yet?  Feels like it, right?  Okay, enough small talk.  Let’s get down to some fantasy baseball action!  (<–If you say that to a girl and she doesn’t immediately walk away, splash some water in your face, you’re dreaming.)  We’re taking our monthly look at xFIPs and what they can tell us for fantasy baseball.  If you don’t know what the FIP I’m talking about.  Read the following:  xFIP — stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching.  It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you.  It’s a pure ERA.  It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower for like 2 weeks because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it.  It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it.  That’s xFIP.  Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher, who has an ERA of 2.75, but his xFIP is a 6.75.  A -4.00 difference.  That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up.  So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their xFIPs for the first two months of the season. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)

Livan Hernandez – -2.69.  Please regress already, I’m sick of talking about you.  Thank you!

Ubaldo Jimenez – -2.58.  Well, that’s not a good sign.  On the bright side, his xFIP is only 3.51.  You didn’t really think he’d end the year with a sub-1 ERA, did you?  You did?  Aw, I’m sorry.  Go take a nap, the world will still be here when you wake.

Jaime Garcia – -2.25.  This is upsetting for me, because I own this doode.  Yeah, he’s not a sub-2 ERA pitcher, unfortunately.  His xFIP isn’t obnoxiously bad though at 3.72.

Tim Hudson – -2.00.  Odd that he appeared in the Sell section of this Buy/Sell or was it my plan along?  There’s no right answer.  Just talk it out, you’ll get it.

David Price – -1.95.  This list has more quality names on it than I remember last month.  Price’s Ks are down and his BABIP is way down, showing he’s been lucky.  If you can pass him off in a trade like he’s the 2nd coming of Lincecum, I’d consider it.

Mike Leake – -1.80.  His Ks are just eh and his walks are kinda bleh.  If someone wants some of your rookie nookie, I’d let them at it.

Clay Buchholz – -1.78.  This is a little upsetting, but it’s fair to say he’s not a sub-3 ERA guy.  In the AL East, there’s really no sub-3 ERA guys.  Lester would be the closest.

Jeff Niemann – -1.73.  What’s this, the whole Rays pitching staff?  Here’s the thing, and there is a thing, the Rays defense is excellent so it’s helping a bit with the pitcher’s “luck.”  Still, I’m not a fan of Niemann and here he is, so there’s that.

Jon Garland – -1.58.  No relation to Judy (from what I know), but at some point he’s going to click his heels and pitch away from home and get rocked.

Andy Pettitte – -1.52.  I think it’s safe to say from Pettitte’s track record no one thinks he’s the pitcher he’s been these first 2 months.  Assuming he’s not taking steroids again.

220 Responses

  1. RandomItalicizedVoice says:
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    I think Neimann loses a lot of value the rest of the way. Look at his schedule so far! He couldn’t have written that up better hmself considering he’s in the AL East. I sold high on him last week.

    Apart from that….query for Grey et al:

    Someone offered me Berkman for Stanton. Take it? I would have to play Berk in the Util spot since I have Howard at 1B. My OF is Quentin, Cruz, Holliday, Ludwick, Gardner.

    Thanks all in advance.

  2. Tony says:
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    u just gave me an idea grey, thanks…..

  3. chrisB Critterz says:
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    I always guess wrong on Morrow. I Start him and he gets lit up. I bench him and he’s lights out. What gives? I mean c’mon against the Yanks?

    Is there a term for this? Sounds like a Brandon Sorrow.

  4. El Famous Burrito says:
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    @Grey

    What would an average xFIP be? What would be considered good?

  5. Tony says:
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    @chrisB Critterz: happens to me too, i think they get geeked up bc they’re going vs. the Yankees or Boston or whoever and other games they’re not so psyched up….

    or they just suck… and its a coin flip each time they take the mound

  6. Seequinn says:
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    Grey, perhaps I don’t fully understand how FIP works but it seems silly to assume a regression by removing fielding. If a pitcher has a great defense, there is nothing to say that won’t continue as well, right? WhaddamImissing?

  7. Upsetting, since my pitching is based around Ubaldo, Leake, and Garcia.

    It’s a keeper league – which of those three should I sell high on, and which will be the best long-term keeper(s)?

    Thanks,
    – JSB

  8. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Seequinn: If fielders are getting more balls than humanely possible then what would be hits are getting hit at people (lucky) or fielders are covering more ground. Rays fielders can cover more ground, but can’t cover everything.

    @JoshSamBob: Sell Leake…

  9. nick m. says:
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    i’m trying to get some starting pitching. i think i might be able to get gallardo and beckett for mccann and quentin. i know i’m selling low on mccann, but i have posey to slot in for him. thought?

  10. dj says:
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    how would you rank brett myers, morrow, or randy wells? who would you rather own?

  11. MarkM says:
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    @El Famous Burrito: There’s no “good” xFIP. It’s just a measure of how a pitcher would perform if you removed all factors that he can’t control. Pitchers that are performing at the average level that they are expected to have an xFIP close to their ERA. Pitchers due for a regression have an ERA lower than their xFIP. Pitchers that have a higher ERA than their xFIP should get better.

    It isn’t really meant to be a standalone stat, rather one that’s compared to ERA and used in conjunction with BABIP, HR/FB ratio, FIP and other “trending” stats to see when players are good buy lows and when you should sell a hot guy.

  12. Terrence Mann says:
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    The worst news about Leake isn’t his FIP.

    It’s that Bronson Arroyo has taken Leake under his wing. Reds players even call Leake Mini-Bronson.

    Between Arroyo and Dusty Baker, Leake is obviously screwed.

  13. El Famous Burrito says:
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    @MarkM: Ahhhh…that makes sense now. Thanks.

    So who is the real deal?

    In other words, who has a low ERA and an xFIP of close to zero?

  14. My Pet Goat says:
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    “Clay Buchholz – -1.78.  This is a little upsetting, but it’s fair to say he’s not a sub-3 ERA guy.  In the AL East, there’s really no sub-3 ERA guys.  Lester would be the closest.”

    Really? Cause I didn’t see St. Phil on this list of guys with deflated ERAs.

  15. Professor Chaos says:
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    Would you guys do a deal which sends Ubaldo and Rolen for Longoria and Hamels?

  16. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @My Pet Goat: I don’t think Hughes is a sub-3 ERA pitcher.

  17. charlie batch says:
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    kershaw or price ROS?

  18. Doug Ault says:
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    @Grey: Should I turf Auston Jackson for Stanton?

  19. Seequinn says:
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    In a keeper league (7 keepers)…Cliff Lee or Pablo Sandoval

  20. tHe ShiT says:
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    @Grey: Thoughts on Delmon Young?

  21. Doug Ault says:
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    @Grey: done!

    I also scooped him and dropped Cecil in the only other league he was available

  22. BSA says:
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    OK – So I can’t ask for advice re: RCL team since I would be drawn and quartered. Man this FIP stuff has me wondering when the bottom is falling out on my pitching staff – then aagin helps me keep it in perspective when I “feel” I need to make moves. Problem with Steve et al in the RCL is a sell here means drop to the waiver wire.

    On a different note – this Stanton stuff is bringing me back to 09 Bruce –

    Check out who hater is throwing out there as “droppable” for Stanton – could make for a fun conversation.

  23. MarkM says:
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    @El Famous Burrito: Well, an xFIP close to zero isn’t really possible, the lowest in the league right now is Roy Halladay with 2.93 which means that if his fielders and the parks he’s pitched in were taken out of the equation he would have a 2.93 ERA. This is pretty close to his ERA of 2.03, but says that you should be surprised if his ERA ends up higher.

    Rickey Romero is a good example of someone pitching right around their skill level without being super lucky. His ERA is 3.06 and his xFIP is 3.18 and his BABIP (Batting Average for Balls in Play) is .296. This means that he’s not due for a huge blowup like maybe Jaime Garcia or Livan Hernandez. It means that he’s closer to a 3 ERA pitcher than most current 3 ERA pitchers.

    Fangraphs.com has great sortable advanced stats for all players (sorry for the plug Grey! I’m not associated with Fangraphs at all, I just use it to get advanced stats. Hope you don’t mind!)

  24. hoju says:
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    Every time I read these lists I see Hudson on it but I can’t seem to sell him for fair value. Have to assume my leaguemates all know about xFIP by now. At least he hasn’t regressed yet. Looks like I’ll be hoping for the best the rest of the way.

    Now that Buchholz made it too……I’m in trouble.

  25. MarkM says:
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    @MarkM: It should say that you *shouldn’t* be surprised if Halladay ends up with a slightly higher ERA.

  26. herschel says:
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    @Grey: kelly johnson and austin jackson for pedroia. which side?

  27. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @tHe ShiT: Bleh…

    @Doug Ault: Cool…

    @BSA: Cool, will check it later.

    @MarkM: I don’t mind, it’s in the blogroll.

    @hoju: And there’s that.

  28. chooch says:
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    from this point going forward who in what order do you rank these guys, quentin, pena,theriot, a. huff, bourbon.

  29. El Famous Burrito says:
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    @MarkM: Thanks, Mark. I should have said a ratio of xFIP to ERA of near-zero, but you got me anyways.

    I’m just a caveman. Your advanced statistics and acronyms frighten and confuse me. I see a word like BABIP and I wonder will saying this word outloud conjur a demon to steal my soul? I can’t help it, I’m a caveman, that’s the way I think.

  30. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    Anyone have a link to a well written, concise article explaining Player Replacement Value?

  31. MarkM says:
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    @El Famous Burrito: Haha, they’re a little intimidating at first for sure, but once you get the hang of them it can give you a real competitive edge in trades.

    BABIP, for example, can go both ways – hitters and pitchers. If you see a hitter that is making good contact but a ball just won’t drop you should look at his career BABIP and his current BABIP. Chances are, he’s been getting very unlucky and his current BABIP is much lower that his career mark. Chances are, unless it is an old or injured player, they will bounce back and you can probably buy them on the cheap from a less informed owner. Don’t be scared of statistics!!!! :)

  32. MarkM says:
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    @Awesomus Maximus: Are you looking for the math behind it? Or just what it means in the big picture?

  33. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @MarkM: then again, a guy like garcia gets so many GBs that with a good infield D, his xFIP and BABIP are gonna are gonna indicate he’s luckier than avg.

    ubaldo is another guy who gets a lot of GBs and has a solid infield D, so his BABIP and xFIP is gonna indicate he’s lucky.

    *note i don’t expect either guy to end up with the ratios they have now, but i wouldn’t expect either to be much worse than a 3.50 era type pitcher the rest of the year, with the chance that maybe it’s their year and they obviously regress some, but are significantly better than a 3.50 era type guy. i wouldn’t sell ubaldo for anything less than a 1st or 2nd round player who is playing pretty well. and even then it depends on the deal/roster/needs/etc.

    it’s pretty unlikely you find a guy with an xFIP lower than around 3.00. most guys end up with an xFIP in the 3.50-4.00 range over a full season.

  34. hoju says:
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    Looking at the E-F stats on fangraphs over the last 30 days. Should I know the name Chris Narveson? 12 tm mixed non-keeper. I’m assuming no, or not yet, but he looks like he could be a good spot starter soon. Walk rate is a little high, but his K rate is nice. I have no idea who he is though.

  35. MarkM says:
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    @ThePoonTycoon: Ya, there are definitely other factors to take into consideration and I hinted at that in my first post. I was trying to simplify things to get the point of xFIP across without confusing people that haven’t really used it before. It can be a tough stat to wrap your head around the first time you see it used.

    But you are certainly right. A good infield D, and good GB% can make it look like you’re luckier than you are just like a bad D or high FB/HR% can make you look like you should trend toward better numbers when a player really won’t. It’s all meant to be taken with a grain of salt in all but the most extreme situations (like the players on this list)

  36. Eric says:
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    Grey,

    You’ve touted Medlen, Ely and Cecil. For the rest of the year, who’d you rather have?

  37. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @MarkM: yeah, then you have guys like haren who just has an obscenely high babip and HR/FB rate, but everything else is in line or better than his career numbers. sometimes it’s your year/month/week and sometimes it’s not.

  38. MarkM says:
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    @ThePoonTycoon: Don’t talk to me about Haren…sigh

  39. Seequinn says:
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    I like Cecil too, but do you start him against the Rays? It took sack to put him in against the Yankees.

  40. Wilsonian says:
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    A guy in my 8 Team H2H Keeper has firmly placed Tex on the block. I had Kendry and his limp off slam, and picked up Glaus as a stopgap. I’m not really trusting him to maintain his ridiculous numbers every week, but I can easily see him at .280/30/100. Here’s my roster:

    V-Mart, Glaus, Utley, Longo, Andrus, Kemp, Cargo, B-Up, Rasmus, Ortiz, Wright, Stanton, Cruz-DL

    Ubaldo, Doc, JJ, Ervin, Shields, Weaver, Verlander, Aardsma, K-Rod, Capps, Axford, DLR-DL

    I’m firmly entrenched in 1st place, and not too sure I want to bust up the core of my team, but Tex (even while struggling is enticing). I sent an offer of Papi/Capps for Tex/Lidge, and it was rejected with no counter. Do you see a viable offer for just Tex? Or should I not worry about making any adjustments to my juggernaut?

  41. Wilsonian says:
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    @MarkM: just wait, this is bizarro baseball this season. He’ll have a monster 2nd half…

  42. Shack says:
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    This is over-analysis BUT, if Pena gets benched like Maddon is itching to do, those Rays players are going to be even WORSE off given the loss of his glove.

  43. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @chooch: Pena, Quentin, Borbon…

    @Eric: Ely, Medlen…

    @Seequinn: No, his matchups are terrible. All AL East pitchers are bad for matchups.

    @Wilsonian: Ortiz/Ervin for Tex? You’re in a 8 team league, you don’t need a pitcher back. Your waivers must be filled with them.

  44. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Wilsonian: you could maybe try bj + galus or something, but i bet that’s doubtful, he’d probably want at least wright from you. maybe you could try cargo + ervin or something.

    good luck, he’s probably pissed about that papi/crapps offer.

    i alsways like to make my feeler offer at least somewhat reasonable, cause it doesn’t immediately cause the other owner to shut down in the negotiations that ensue. like actually look at their team and figure out where they could need help and put a note in with your offer giving your reasoning. i found it works wonders getting a deal done.

    @MarkM: you and me both. drafted him in 1 league, traded for him (gallardo + roster depth) in another several weeks ago.

  45. MarkM says:
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    @ThePoonTycoon: I got him and Beckett for Nelson Cruz and Jake Peavy the day Cruz went on DL the first time. It looked like a steal then, now it looks like the lesser of two evils.

  46. Hitman says:
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    Drop Scott Baker or Niemann for Stanton?
    I have ton of pitching already.

  47. Donnie Baseball says:
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    Grey, you’re not going to like this one. Pineiro +1.25. The only reason I know is I’m stuck with him in a really, really deep league and looking for some kind of positive.

  48. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @MarkM: i drafted haren and beckett in one league. if my era and whip weren’t dead last, then i’d be in the running for first place right now.

    i also have nelson cruz in that league and my keeper league on my DL. so i feel like i’ve been on both sides of your trade.

  49. GTS says:
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    Starlin Castro is killing me – pick up Ian Desmond instead or ride it out?

  50. Bring Back Pluto says:
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    Grey, I imagine you’ve flirted with this idea and already found it unworkable, but would you consider doing a monthly or bi-monthly (which, annoyingly, besides being a gay mag, can mean “twice a month”, or “once every two months”–in this case I mean twice a month) feature on starting pitchers? Something along the lines of “Closer Look” (maybe call it something like “Starter Kit”) where you rank the top 30 (or 40, 50, 60) starting pitchers? Obviously it would just be tiered, and it would be hard to ever come up with a classification so absolutely perfect as “donkeycorn,” but I’m sure it would be a always be an incredibly useful post to your readers.

    Hell, I bet there are commentators who could come up with a running list based just on your answers to questions in the comments.

  51. royce! says:
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    @MarkM: I think that part of your discussion may mislead readers as to what xFIP is and what its significance might be. You state that Halladay’s xFIP-ERA “means that if his fielders and the parks he’s pitched in were taken out of the equation he would have a 2.93 ERA.” This is not true.

    FIP, Fielding Independent Pitching, is a measure of all those things for which a pitcher is specifically responsible. The formula is (HR*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP, plus a league-specific factor (usually around 3.2) to round out the number to an equivalent ERA number.

    xFIP is essentially the same, but because HR/FB rate is effected by luck and variance, it normalizes the HR/FB rate to a league average. xFIP = ((FB*.11)*13+(BB+HBP-IBB)*3-K*2)/IP

    So, if you got rid of the field and defender factors, a pitcher COULD have an ERA = FIP or xFIP, but this would just be coincidental. This is because there are other variables besides team defense, park factors, and those accounted for in xFIP (FB%, BB, HBP, IBB, K). The major ones I am thinking of are BABIP, LOB%, LD%, and GB%.

    Additionally, as stated, xFIP assumes a league average HR/FB rate. This might be okay for your run of the mill pitcher, but elite pitchers have HR/FB rates consistently lower than the league average. This can’t be attributed to defense, and only very slightly to park factors. So Halladay’s ERA can be lower than his xFIP simply because he’s not going to give up as many HR per FB.

    So xFIP is called “fielding independent,” but because it simply disregards all hits that are not HR, one cannot use it to calculate what a given SP’s ERA would be if not for good or bad defense or not being in a hitters or pitchers park.

    Returning to your example of Halladay, his xFIP-ERA yields this: his ERA is likely going to get nearer to his xFIP. This should be true of the others with large divergences between ERA and xFIP. But I think that comparing ERA and xFIP doesn’t really reveal much more about how a pitcher will perform in the future outside of the extreme outliers.

  52. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Hitman: Niemann

    @Donnie Baseball: Eh, he still doesn’t strikeout anyone.

    @GTS: Can go with Desmond if you like. Apples and apples.

    @Bring Back Pluto: Yeah, maybe. Definitely under consideration.

  53. BSA says:
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    updates out of Boston –
    Cameron out today – in on Tuesday
    Ellsbury heading to Cali later this week for a 3rd opinion
    Papelbon out for three day family leave/bereavement
    Ortiz – wrist is fine.

  54. Wilsonian says:
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    @ThePoonTycoon: he’s a childhood friend, and he’s tough to deal with anyway, but I wasn’t realy worried about pissing him off. He never makes counters unless it’s REAL close to exactly what he wants. I’m thinking about sending a good pitcher like Ervin or Shields his way with Ortiz or an OF and see what that can do. If friggin’ Cruz would stay healthy, it would be much easier to get the job done.

  55. The Cow says:
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    @hoju: Chris Narveson is the ‘top’ immediate Brewers SP prospect. He was relegated to the ‘pen because he is out of options at the start of the season, but was put into the rotation because Suppan is, well, Suppan. He has shown flashes of success, as shown with his K rate, but he is still pretty green and will get some blow-ups every now and again. He is currently slated at the Brewers #4 starter.

    Guess where I live and what team I root for? Hope this helps.

  56. yanks4life says:
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    Jamie Garcia and Dotel for Youk fair?

  57. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @yanks4life: not really but if he takes it who cares

  58. EDUB says:
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    I dont like FIP bc it counts all hits other than HR’s equal which is obviously not the case.

  59. MarkM says:
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    @yanks4life: I wouldn’t, but it depends. If he has someone like Bautista on his roster and needs pitching and can afford to lose Youk, maybe. I wouldn’t accept that trade.

  60. yanks4life says:
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    Yea I’m hoping to sell extremely high on Garcia knowing the kid has 1′s and 2′s in all pitching categories. Thanks for the responses

  61. Pops says:
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    In a vacuum, bubble, etc… which side would you value?

    Teixeira / Stanton / Storen
    or
    J. Weaver / Papelbon / Markakis / Smoak

  62. Panti Jose says:
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    I know AL East pitchers have brutal matchups week in and week out, but with Morrow’s trends is he more or less valuable (long-term, no bench for match-ups) than a low-end Hodgepadre like LeBlanc?

    Just having trouble pulling the trigger even though he’s best FA available.

  63. danimal35 says:
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    Give up on Ibanez yet? Ike Davis just became available on waivers…make the switch for the UTIL position?

  64. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Pops: Tex, but it’s fair.

    @Panti Jose: LeBlanc (at home), Morrow, LeBlanc on the road… Is how I’d rank them.

    @danimal35: Make the switch if you like, they’re similar enough. I’d prefer Ibanez.

  65. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:

    I’ll have to second Bring Back Pluto’s suggestion Grey, that’d actually be very useful. It’s a rubix cube trying to decide if you like Ely better than Myers, but less than Morrow but on par with Marcum, or that same scenario with #3 starters. It seems many times when you get asked to choose a pitcher out of three given, someone else wonders if your chosen pitcher is better than “this” pitcher, and that veers off into a whole ‘nother tier ranking question. It’d make things much easier for you (in terms of clarifying which SP you like better) and us commenters.

    Bee tee dubz, I suck at Rubix cubes, so I need all the help I can get.

  66. MarkM says:
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    @royce!: Touche

    @Eddy: Honestly, if it’s that close between guys you should look at schedules for the rest of the year. If that’s even then close your eyes and pick one. Grey’s tiers are just that, tiers. No one’s going out trying to move Rivera+ for Broxton, because he’s lower on Grey’s list (at least I hope no one is). The important thing is the tier that they are in, not whether one is ranked 26 and one is 28.

    That being said, I too would like to see a list like that. haha

  67. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: The problem with doing something like that is it gets outdated 5 days later when people pitch.

  68. Steve says:
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    OK Hamels owners – I traded him away over the weekend. Stand by for a no-hitter.

  69. Eddie says:
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    MLBDRAFTTONIGHT

  70. @Eddy: I think the onus (hey his rookie card’s ‘spensive!) is on the asker to place the question in context. Often the better pitcher long term is not the better pitcher for an upcoming period of time. What would you base the rankings on? Long term or for the coming week or two. Both are useful to consider in varying degrees due to league structure, so I don’t know how useful a list really is. There are so many factors at play when we ask, “who’s better,” that you’d really need to spend a tremendous amount of time in order to do the job right I’d think.

    Anyway, I like the format you use Grey, it’s timely and relevant without seeming absolute – like a lot of fantasy writers seem to do. Can anyone really say with certainty how any given player will perform? Too many guys claim to without accountability.

    Word. As Liz Lemon said, “Cross promotional deal mechanics, revenue streams, jargon, synergy.”

  71. Steve says:
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    @3FingersBrown: You forgot about the low-hanging fruit.

  72. MarkM says:
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    Is anyone else completely pumped that the draft is starting?

  73. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @MarkM: I hope someone unexpectedly drafts me.

  74. MarkM says:
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    @Grey: I heard that the Nats were going to take you over Harper, but your price tag was a little too hefty.

    I bet you’d be a Boras client.

  75. Eddy says:
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    @MarkM:

    Well I normally don’t deliberate when it’s THAT close, but when I do, it’d be real great to know what Grey would think because for H2H, the difference between #26 and #28 can win/lose a week for you.
    @Grey:
    Good point, and to an extent one could say Stephen’s weekly starters does the job for us, but sometimes he delves too low, to the point where some of the names are more 14 and 16 team league options. It’s hard to come up with a solution, but if there’s any sliver of you still wanting to test it out for a month, I’ll help you out and give you a list of pitchers and their next 6 starts (about a month) and perhaps you could have a post arranging pitchers? Like if Nolasco gets the Phils twice along with LAD, SF and ATL and Hughes gets Oakland, Orioles twice, BOS and SEA, you’d advertise him even though Nolasco is ranked higher than Hughes. Or heck, you could also split it up into pitchers with bad months and good months ahead. Idk, I’m spitting out a bunch of jibberish, I know, but it’s just something to get ya going. If you would in fact like that list, I’d be more than happy to email you one in a few days.

  76. Eddie says:
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    @MarkM: I am. It sure beats cursing the fantasy gods for sticking me with two Dice-BB starts the week I’m playing the best team in our league.

  77. Eddy says:
    (link)

    @Eddie:
    Cool name!

  78. Eddie says:
    (link)

    The Chosen One goes first overall. Shocker.

  79. Eddie says:
    (link)

    @Eddy: I was thinking the same!

  80. MarkM says:
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    @Eddie: Almost makes you want to drop out of HS and get a GED doesn’t it?

  81. Eddie says:
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    So roll call time, since we’ve got the draft. Who is everybody a fan of? I’m a Cubs fan, waiting for the 16th pick.

  82. MarkM says:
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    @Eddie: BoSox here, though I’m a Massachusetts transplant living in Philly, so I’ll watch the Phillies pick is mild disdain.

  83. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Eddy: Smokey does 2 start posts, but yeah… Would only be for the month, not the whole year from that point on. Still becomes tough when you have Hamels at the beginning of June and by the 2nd week he’s had three rockings in a row, for instance.

    @MarkM: I wouldn’t sign with the Nats. Be too embarrassing to be below Cristian Guzman on the depth chart, now that the Nats play Guzman at 7 different positions.

  84. MarkM says:
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    @MarkM: With mild disdain, not is*

  85. MarkM says:
    (link)

    @Grey: You could have always JD Drew’d them. That would be classic.

  86. Eddie says:
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    @Grey: The Nats must be trying to increase Guzman’s trade value. BAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!!

  87. Eddie says:
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    Jameson Taillon to Pissburgh. Did not think his name was pronounced “Tie-On.” There’s a joke in there somewhere.

  88. MarkM says:
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    @Eddie: Don’t rush it. All good things take time.

  89. Eddie says:
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    Machado to Baltimore. I truly loathe Bud Selig by the way. My team name is ‘Err Bud.’

  90. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddie: Nice! He is such a putz (not of the reliever variety).

  91. Eddie says:
    (link)

    @Grey: I try to keep it fresh. Last season it was “Passion of the Cub.”

  92. MarkM says:
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    @Eddie: I’m currently SuckerPunchJoeMorgan. It was destiny, it’s the exact max that yahoo allows.

  93. Eddie says:
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    The first college player off the board goes to Kansas City: Christian Colon.

  94. Eddie says:
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    @MarkM: You and I, we have a kinship now. Were you as devastated as I was when firejoemorgan closed up shop?

  95. MarkM says:
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    @Eddie: I was very very sad that they closed. I still read some of the old articles from time to time.

  96. Eddie says:
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    Drew Pomeranz to Cleveland.

  97. Eddie says:
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    Jeez – this kid looks like Jay Cutler.

  98. MarkM says:
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    @Eddie: I bet he’s more accurate

  99. ThePensive says:
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    Throwing his first two starts out of the equation (since, y’know he might have had jitters since they were his first professional starts outside of Arizona), Leake’s K/9 is over 7 and his K/BB is over 3. He might not be this good, but I don’t see him regressing significantly more than Garcia.

  100. Clyde Prompto says:
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    How concerned is everyone about Travis Snider’s wrist? I would have sworn he was supposed to be back by now, and wrist injuries aren’t good news for hitters.

  101. Seequinn says:
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    Grey, over/under on Harper taking a major league cut?

  102. Eddie says:
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    “I think I was about 7 or 8 years old when I grabbed my first wood.” – Bryce Harper.
    That’s what she said.

  103. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    @MarkM: More of what it means in the big picture. Basically, I need to direct a couple of league mates somewhere that will explain to them why I won’t trade them Pujols for, say… McGehee/Pena. They’re caught up in the fact that the two players they’re offering will generate more counting stats than my Pujols, so it’s a good trade for me.

  104. Seequinn says:
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    @Eddie: I want to believe that he just won a bet by dropping that line.

  105. Eddie says:
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    @Grey: Do you hear anything about Bumgarner? I read a rumor he could be called up to take Wellemeyer’s rotation spot this week.

  106. john says:
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    Burn me once Johnny Cueto, shame on you…Burn me twice, fuck you I’m done.

  107. @MarkM: When I saw that I thought the kid was crying because he didn’t make the catch. Pussy. In Queens we would have booed him out of the stadium.

    Seriously though, that was cool of Albert.

  108. Eddie says:
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    @john: He will not make up his damn mind. Are you gonna break out or what?!?!

  109. peter says:
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    CUETO. What a jerk. If he can’t put together a solid start against the Giants, is he worth owning right now over guys like Guthrie or Lowe? Both have been\ good in the last month. Whereas Cueto, after 3 IP, has soured me off watching any baseball tonight. The missus thanks you, Johnny!

  110. Quimmy says:
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    Needed pitching in one of leagues, was offered Liriano for my Bautista.

    Last I spoke with Grey he said Bautista wasn’t likely to be a 30 home run bat, but it now looks very likely, maybe more. Should I sell high on Bautista? Should I expect morenthan Liriano for him?

  111. MarkM says:
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    @Quimmy: I just watched Bautista, Jenks and Vasquez go for Youk and Lindstrom, just so you have a frame of reference.

  112. john says:
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    @Eddie: I know. He was great for a stretch there and I thought I would finally be able to trust him. And then against STL, I could understand. They were starting to hit again and they have PooHoles…Now this, I’m done (at least until he pitches well for a couple games again).

  113. peter says:
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    @john: I was hoping hid last start was something… out of character. Something that he’d bounce back from with a nice start against the Giants.

    This makes 2 weeks in a row that he’s absolutely killing my h2h teams’ ERA/WHIP.

  114. Black Beard says:
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    What is everyone thinking about Grady? Anyway he’s worth keeping in a 7 player keeper league next year?

  115. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Clyde Prompto: Pretty concerned.

    @Seequinn: September of 2011. I’d take over.

    @Eddie: Yeah, had heard something similar.

    @peter: Ha… Yeah, he’s a mess again.

    @Quimmy: I’d want Liriano.

  116. john says:
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    @peter: Yea, I’m in the same boat. Though thinking about it, if he has already ruined my ERA/WHIP for the week, I might just start him against KC too. I mean how much more could he hurt me. But after that he’s benched.

  117. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Black Beard: Drop him if you don’t have DL space.

  118. Wilsonian says:
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    @Anybody: 16 Team H2H keeper. Would anyone deal Ely for Napoli? I’m a disgruntled owner of Soto and I’m not sure I trust him long term. A guy with Nap and Suzuki offered me Suzuki for Bills…which I won’t be doing. But I’m thinking of countering. Thoughts?

  119. Eddie says:
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    @Wilsonian: Yes I would.

  120. Eddie says:
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    Time for the Cubs.

  121. Wilsonian says:
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    @Eddie: If Jim Hendry makes the pick, I’m sure he’ll go with a left-handed middle reliever.

    Signed,

    A disgruntled Cub Fan (vote Ryno/Maddux for manager/GM in ’11!)

  122. Eddie says:
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    @Wilsonian: He’ll give him 7 years and a no trade clause to boot. (I am also a Cubs fan.)

  123. Eddie says:
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    They are laughing at us.

  124. Wilsonian says:
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    @Eddie: And then he’ll bring back Dusty Baker just so he can completely destroy his arm (after the 7 year deal with a no trade clause, of course).

  125. royce! says:
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    @MarkM: Yeah, sorry, I went a little overboard there.

  126. Bob says:
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    @Steve: Well, six innings in the books and Hamels is on track for a no hitter as you predicted. Please tell me who else you plan to drop or trade so I can get in on that as well.

  127. MarkM says:
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    @royce!: No apology needed, you were 100% right.

  128. MarkM says:
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    @Bob: The curse of me strikes again. I turn on the TV and what do I see? An AGon homer.

    Pretty pumped about that. I hate working with all Phillies fans.

  129. royce! says:
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    @MarkM: I love in the video that Joe Morgan was like, “I’ve been trying to get an Albert Pujols bat, I’m gonna have to go sit in the outfield sometime.” I know more than a few people who would buy a Puljols bat to give to Morgan if in exchange they can throw a 100 mph pitch at his chest.

    Another funny Morgan moment from last night’s STL/MIL game. They were discussing Griffey’s retirement, and were on the topic of how he chose to not make a big show of retiring by just letting it be known and going home. Morgan adds something along the lines of, “And he turned off his phone, too.” How does Morgan know this? Morgan adds, “because I called him and he hasn’t gotten back to me.” (I’m paraphrasing.) Cue my wife and I laughing our asses off.

  130. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Bob: Way to jinx it.

  131. Bob says:
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    @MarkM: Even before the HR, Hamels wasn’t on track for the win. The Phillies don’t hit. Now I see he’s given up back to back dingers even as I type this. This is the curse of those who still own Hamels.

  132. sean says:
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    I feel like the dude in the commercial yelling at Cole Hamels in my underoos over here. The longball is a serious issue for this guy.

  133. peter says:
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    @royce!: yes! Thanks for reminding me about his phone call comment. I’m laughing at it, again. Maybe Cueto hasn’t taken all of the funny out of baseball, after all.

  134. royce! says:
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    @MarkM: And a Hairston homer to really rub it in. As a Padres fan, I thank you. As a Hamels owner, I hope Pujols hits a line drive HR at you.

    Watching that Pujols video again, I’m thinking that it might not have been the best idea to give the kid a bat. That kid will never learn to catch correctly now! /sarcasm.

  135. Bob says:
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    @Grey: I couldn’t resist because I like Steve so much. Anyway, I knew the second I typed it I was dooming myself and other Hamels owners.

  136. MarkM says:
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    @royce!: Haha man, I wish someone would tell Joe Morgan that he’s quickly becoming the John Madden of Baseball. Too bad he wouldn’t stop talking about the HoF long enough to listen.

    The phone story is hilarious, I missed it. Now I’m off to dig up that video.

  137. penpen says:
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    anyone else thinking Cueto’s final line isn’t really THAT bad? I mean a bunch of singles… just bad luck? Only walked one dude, and pitched 70 out of 100 for strikes I think… Anyone see the game that can elaborate?

  138. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Bob: Ha… Yeah, meanwhile LeBlanc is pitching a gem. Sonavabench!

    @penpen: He looked all right.

  139. john says:
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    @Grey: @penpen: I might have overreacted a tiny bit initially, but its still not a good line. Especially taking in last week’s performance and then the fact that this was against SF. Whether or not I start him, KC will be Cueto’s almost mid-season audition for a spot in my rotation.

  140. Eddie says:
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    @penpen: His control was shitty, even with the minimal walk total.

  141. penpen says:
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    @Grey: That’s good to hear. I took a look at the Reds’ upcoming opponents and it’s droolworthy (even with interleague, they get the Indians and Royals) so I feel a little better hanging on for now.

  142. Steve says:
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    @Bob: @Grey: I’m shot of him in the RCL as you know, so I’m glad (and not ashamed to say so!) that he flipped the bird at Hippo in his first start on his team.

    However, I still have Hamels on my H2H team and I’m up against a guy that has had Silva and effing Dice-K go today.

  143. Ubaldo Is King says:
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    @grey- cecil or ely for the rest of the season?

  144. Schlitzy says:
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    how do you feel about hanley for the rest of 2010 and beyond? I’ve been offered hanley for my Braun. not crazy about hanley’s move to the leadoff spot and the fact that he’s an asshole.

  145. aj says:
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    is it time to cut bait on cueto. dewd just rocked my whip.

  146. aj says:
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    thinking of picking up Carlos Monasterios or morrow and droping cueto

  147. GopherDay says:
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    Grey, Gavin Floyd or Ian Kennedy?

  148. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Ha

    @Ubaldo Is King: Ely

    @Schlitzy: It’s fair, depends on needs.

    @aj: Morrow’s fine, I’d want Cueto for his next start over Morrow for his next.

    @GopherDay: Really? Kennedy…

  149. Bostonbeerman says:
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    Good call on moving Leake. Thoughts on who to target in a 12 team roto that keeps 10 players. We only have 9 hitters. I know it is impossible without knowing my needs. Seen anyone deal him recently. What did they get.

  150. BSA says:
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    @Grey: Gopher meant to type his login as GroundhogDay – the questions that keep on coming back. :)

    Hey Steve – Watch Bob, I don’t think he is going to split the win this year – he just picked up KMorales for a September Stash.

  151. Steve says:
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    @BSA: Watch him? I can’t even see him.

  152. BSA says:
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    @Steve: Technically your in fourth and the yo-yo string I am on means we could be passing each other in different directions this week.
    Then again my whole team may jump on Stanton’s back tomorrow as he hits 12 homeruns, with 30 runs, 30 rbis, and 20 sbs. Then when he isn’t running the bases he’ll be striking out 10 and coming out of his first game with a win and a save.

  153. MarkM says:
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    @BSA: I read that Jesus, er, Stanton hit a 5 run HR in the minors this year.

  154. elwood blues says:
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    Cubs draft Hayden Simpson (the 91st rated RHP) in the 1st round.. that’s like taking Oliver Perez in the 1st round of your fantasy draft

  155. BSA says:
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    @MarkM: and it starts………
    Lets hope he and Bruce talk so Jay can tell him which rocks are slippery as Mike now looks to walk on water in 2010.

  156. BKK says:
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    So Tony dropped Posada the other day. He had Napoli too. We have a 3 day waiting period. So I have had Posada queued up to drop Soto who I have been exceedingly patient with. Today he finally shows some life today. Although an injury risk, isn’t Posada still the right move given park factors, offence and The DH?

    Exasperating C question # 2346677809!

  157. royce! says:
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    Dang, Aroldis Chapman’s seeming to fall fast. Today’s line: 2 IP, 7 ER, 6 H, 6 BB.

  158. BSA says:
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    @BKK: HA – I thought that was catcher question number 2346677810, but who is counting?

  159. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    hitters 1 for 20 tonight; the one hit from Peralta who was zero for nine against Matsuzaka coming in. That’s base-a-ball.

  160. elwood blues says:
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    2nd in HR’s; 2nd in RBI’s; 10th in SB’s in NL Only.. am I sacrificing too much in hr’s and rbi’s to trade Byrd for Bourn?

  161. Van Hammersly says:
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    Really pleased to be able to drop Fister now. Pick up LeBlanc the HodgePadre or Hammel? Even close?

  162. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Steve: I’m used to that with Hamels……….

    @Grey: I hate the left coast, gotta stay up too late to see my Cards get whacked like Paulie Walnuts cousin…………..

    suffice to say,,,,,,,,,,,the birds are sufficiently injury devastated

  163. knighttown says:
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    Who would you prefer the rest of the way between Haren and Price? And would you add Adam Jones to the lesser to try and get Holliday or Ludwick?

  164. BSA says:
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    @BigFatHippo: Holy crap – Hippo, Steve, and I on Razzball at the same time – Mike Stanton must truly be the second coming…..

  165. BigFatHippo says:
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    @BSA: Nice to see you too, fellow original.

    @Grey: and there’s that, sigh………..

  166. Martin says:
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    @Grey- I just got price in a trade, but should i look to shop him already? Who would you try and get for him? Do you really like Haren over Price?

  167. Ian says:
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    I just got offered ManRam for Drew Stubbs, and for some reason I’m having trouble clicking Accept. Is it just me, or has Manny really fallen this far?

  168. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Martin: You don’t have to shop him. I don’t know what you need.

    @Ian: I wouldn’t want Manny, but that trade’s about needs. Depends what you need.

    EDIT: Word

  169. BSA says:
    (link)

    @BigFatHippo: Well – that was fun – I gotta get to bed – the Sawx are done, my voting promos are done, and I adjusted my roster to catch up with Steve in the # of moves made category.
    Grey, Have fun writing up the roundup and watching the Dodgers – Lets hope Broxton gets me another Save tonight.

  170. penpen says:
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    One pitcher to drop: Baker, Cueto, Ely, or Cecil?

  171. Donnie Baseball says:
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    @penpen:

    Ely, the fun is over.

  172. MeanMachine says:
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    The Ms finally figured out Figgy can’t be a 2 hole hitter and put him at 9 where he belongs. Check out the results – 3/4.

    Now for my big question. Streaming options are slim this week. Roll the dice with Gallaraga and his 2 starts this week?

  173. BKK says:
    (link)

    @BSA: I can’t image the pain of a 2C league or why anyone would want to subject themselves to such cruel and unusual punishment.
    @Grey: Thanks, waiver claim is still in effect.

  174. Donnie Baseball says:
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    @Grey:

    Grey, you’d pick Baker to drop, or the guy to take out of that group?

    If to drop, could you explain why. Because I think he’s easily the best out of that group.

    Sorry for questioning your genius.

  175. MeanMachine says:
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    How dare u question the great Grey. :-)

  176. hahaha – I have Bruce! And yes, I think he is dreamy again now that he hit a homer and went 3/4 on the night. Would it be crazy to package Leake and Bruce for a bigger bat.

  177. Tony says:
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    WHICH SIDE:

    A) TEX, Manny, Gomes

    B) Johan, broxton, Marcum…..

    ?

  178. MarkM says:
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    @Tony: Sounds like that completely depends on what you need.

  179. Tony says:
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    @MarkM: its not me, it was accepted in my league….. the one guy THINKS he needs pitching haha…. i kinda like this, he’s normally a streamer now he deals tex away…. idk… could go either way, depends if Johan holds up….

  180. knighttown says:
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    Forgetting potential Strasburg-type trades, how much value does Stanton really have? For now I’d be slipping him in and out with the likes of Adam and Garrett Jones, Berkman and maybe Bruce. Is he at that level?

  181. Donnie Baseball says:
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    Anybody else surprised by just how good C. Lee has become.

    After his breakout year, I’d figured he’d settle in as a nice above average pitcher, but he has really turned out to be a great pitcher.

  182. Would Kinsler and Leake for Teixeira be nuts?

  183. alvaro says:
    (link)

    Tim Lincecum for Joey Votto and Martin Prado?
    Im I underselling on Lincy?? I have quasi pitching depht (we start 5 I have vazquez, billingsley, strasburg, leake, e santana, lilly)
    or Lincy for Greinke and Mccann

    Or just keep Lincecum

  184. Anonymous says:
    (link)

    Check out Olivo’s home splits and Jaso’s Road Splits and tell me they don’t look tasty…Their schedules compliment each other nicely to set up such a platoon.

    Olivo in Coors: .455/.479/.833 AVG/OBP/SLG
    Jaso Away: .383/.508/.638 AVG/OBP/SLG

    The only questionable thing is sample sizes for Jaso. I’ve currently got Olivo (10 team H2H Dynasty) and I’d have to drop a benched Ibanez to do it.

  185. BKK says:
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    @Tony: I think whooping I put on him last week sweeping all 10 pitching Cats forced him to do something drastic. It probably a good move for both sides.

  186. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: You can laugh at me now.

  187. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: I’m serious, laugh all you want…………..10 to frickin 1 !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    I’m commitin suicide tomorrow. Had a vision the other night, Father Unipero Cero appeared to me in a dream, wearin a motorcicle jacket, speakin spanish.

    I said, I’m gonna give ya everthing I got……………..gonna start off sending 10 percent, wanna see if the mailman will take it on up there……….

    That oughta buy me some time

  188. Gary says:
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    Price for Hanson, good deal?

  189. barker says:
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    T colvin or melky cabrera
    who gets more time rest of year

  190. alvaro says:
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    how bout leake for mccann

    or ervin santana for prado or Kjohnson

  191. MeanMachine says:
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    I love streaming righties against Houston. They made Hammel look like Ubaldo tonight. I will start any righty against them for the rest of the season.

  192. MeanMachine says:
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    BTW Simon coming back on Wed. Will be the closer. FYI. I think this sentence needs one more annoying accronym. SAGNOF!!

  193. alvaro says:
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    Sorry for the overasking but…

    Lincecum and E Santana for Votto Hanson and Prado

    Another owner really wants lincecum. whats the most value I could get?

  194. Shack says:
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    Just got a proposal. In need of SBs
    Get: Crawford, Fuentes, Cueto
    Give: Markakis, Papelbon, D. Price

  195. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @MeanMachine: Hehe

    @alvaro: That trade’s okay. You should get a top hitter. A 1st rounder isn’t too much to ask for.

  196. DrEasy says:
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    I’m STUPID. I sat Cliff Lee because I somehow thought he’d get lit up in Texas. I’ll never learn.

  197. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Shack: It’s fair for you.

    @DrEasy: Eh, it was a tough matchup in Arlington.

  198. alvaro says:
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    Thanks for the help,

    Now he’s asking for Lincy and Strasburg for Hanson Votto Prado

    I just dont think I can trade strasburg

  199. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:
    I keep on hearing Simon will be closer for sure when he returns but everyone fails to mention WHEN he returns. He’s eligible on Wednesday but earlier today I was reading something about a possible rehab assignment? Do you by any chance know anything?

  200. Eddy says:
    (link)

    @alvaro:
    Dude, do that trade. Grey and Stephen have repeated many times that they are going to severely limit Strasburg’s innings this year. Hanson has been great so far, you’re getting Votto who has a strong shot at being a 1st round pick next year, and Prado who WILL hit over .300 and WILL get you at least 90 runs.

    Say Strasburg gets blown up. Now what? His value reduces to someone similar to Marcum and you missed out on a huge trade. Strasburg is the epitome of sell high. Do yourself a favor and grab that trade.

  201. Ryan says:
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    Own Ubaldo, Price, and Buchholz…What to do?!!?!?!

  202. MeanMachine says:
    (link)

    “RHP Alfredo Simon will return to the closer’s role upon his return from the disabled list, manager Juan Samuel said. Simon, out since May 23 with a hamstring strain, is eligible to return to the active roster Wednesday.”

    (Yahoo! Sports)

Comments are closed.