What’s up, homes? Why isn’t it officially summer yet? Feels like it, right? Okay, enough small talk. Let’s get down to some fantasy baseball action! (<–If you say that to a girl and she doesn’t immediately walk away, splash some water in your face, you’re dreaming.) We’re taking our monthly look at xFIPs and what they can tell us for fantasy baseball. If you don’t know what the FIP I’m talking about. Read the following: xFIP — stands for Expected Fielding Independent Pitching. It’s basically ERA without those pesky fielders helping or hurting you. It’s a pure ERA. It’s like when you go to the Supercuts and then you don’t want to shower for like 2 weeks because you’ll never get your hair styled again like Jeffrey does it. It’s your hair right after Jeffrey styles it and before you wash it. That’s xFIP. Okay, so let’s take a Exhibit A pitcher, who has an ERA of 2.75, but his xFIP is a 6.75. A -4.00 difference. That means he’s been very lucky and there’s a good chance his ERA is going to go way up. So here’s a list of pitchers with the biggest difference between their actual ERAs and their xFIPs for the first two months of the season. (If your guy’s on the list, it’s not a great sign.)
Livan Hernandez – -2.69. Please regress already, I’m sick of talking about you. Thank you!
Ubaldo Jimenez – -2.58. Well, that’s not a good sign. On the bright side, his xFIP is only 3.51. You didn’t really think he’d end the year with a sub-1 ERA, did you? You did? Aw, I’m sorry. Go take a nap, the world will still be here when you wake.
Jaime Garcia – -2.25. This is upsetting for me, because I own this doode. Yeah, he’s not a sub-2 ERA pitcher, unfortunately. His xFIP isn’t obnoxiously bad though at 3.72.
Tim Hudson – -2.00. Odd that he appeared in the Sell section of this Buy/Sell or was it my plan along? There’s no right answer. Just talk it out, you’ll get it.
David Price – -1.95. This list has more quality names on it than I remember last month. Price’s Ks are down and his BABIP is way down, showing he’s been lucky. If you can pass him off in a trade like he’s the 2nd coming of Lincecum, I’d consider it.
Mike Leake – -1.80. His Ks are just eh and his walks are kinda bleh. If someone wants some of your rookie nookie, I’d let them at it.
Clay Buchholz – -1.78. This is a little upsetting, but it’s fair to say he’s not a sub-3 ERA guy. In the AL East, there’s really no sub-3 ERA guys. Lester would be the closest.
Jeff Niemann – -1.73. What’s this, the whole Rays pitching staff? Here’s the thing, and there is a thing, the Rays defense is excellent so it’s helping a bit with the pitcher’s “luck.” Still, I’m not a fan of Niemann and here he is, so there’s that.
Jon Garland – -1.58. No relation to Judy (from what I know), but at some point he’s going to click his heels and pitch away from home and get rocked.
Andy Pettitte – -1.52. I think it’s safe to say from Pettitte’s track record no one thinks he’s the pitcher he’s been these first 2 months. Assuming he’s not taking steroids again.