Don't be shellfish...Share on FacebookTweet about this on TwitterShare on Google+

With the Razzball Commenter Leagues sign ups starting on Monday, we decided to take a look at what last year’s RCLs showed us.  I.e., this is what it took to win these fantasy baseball leagues last year.  Across twenty-one 12 team leagues, you would think you’d have some wide variations, but it’s amazingly close what you need in each category to do average vs. win.  Some quick points upfront.  There were 5 outfielders and one utility, so if you play in a Yahoo league with three outfielders and two utility, I’d expect more offense across the board.  Not much, but some.  There was a 180 games started max for pitchers.  6.5 is average in a 12 team league, not 6 because the last place team has 1 point, not zero.  Finally, the RCLs are made up of guys that are probably more competitive than your casual fantasy baseball leaguemates, so if you can hit these benchmarks, you should be in good shape.  Anyway, here’s what it takes to win a 12 team fantasy baseball league:

Runs – 1,021

The average team last year scored 998 runs, that would get them 6.5 points in the standings in runs.  To win your league, it took 1,124 runs with the average hitter contributing 86.5 runs.  To move up a point from average, you needed an extra 22.80 runs.  So 23 runs on top of 998 runs took you from 6.5 points to 7.5 in the standings.  I like to aim for a 7.5 in runs.  So I would aim for 1,021 runs or 79 runs/player.

Home Runs — 255

The average team hit 235 homers.  To win, you needed 291 homers or 22.4 homers/player.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points in the standings), you needed an extra 10.19 homers.  I like to aim for an 8.5 in homers.  So I would aim for 20 extra homers from 235 or 255 homers or 20 homers/player.

RBIs — 973

The average team needed 948 RBIs.  To win, you had to get 1,083 or 83.6 RBIs/player.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 24.4 RBIs.  I aim for a 7.5 points in RBIs.  So I would aim for 973 RBIs or 75 RBIs/player.

Steals — 177

The average team needed 150 steals.  To win, you had to get 208 or 16 steals/player.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 10.5 steals.  I aim for 8 points in steals.  So I would aim for 177 steals or 14 steals/player.

Average — .271

The average team’s, uh, average is .271.  To win, you had to get a .284.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an increase of .002.  I aim for average in, well, ya know.  So I would want a .271 average.  Let the rest figure itself out.

Strikeouts — 1,272

The average team’s Ks are 1,149.  To win, you needed to rack up 1,342 Ks.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 34.99 Ks.  I aim for a 10 in Ks.  Actually, I don’t aim for it, but that’s where I end up.  So I would want 1,272 Ks from my pitching staff.

Wins — 86

The average team’s pitchers won 86 games.  To win, you needed to win 104 .  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed to win an extra 3.23 games.  (Any Astro pitcher is good for at least four .23 wins.)  I go for average here, which is 86 games.  Otherwise known as letting the cards fall where they may.

Saves — 122

The average team’s relievers closed out 87 games.  To win, you needed 142  saves.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an extra 10.02 saves.  I aim for a 10 in saves.  My thought is if you have extra, you can always trade those suckers.  To get 10 points in saves, you needed 122 saves.

ERA — 3.56

The average team’s pitchers had a 3.64 ERA.  To win, you needed a 3.18 ERA.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an increase of .08.  I aim for a 7.5 in ERA.  So I would want a 3.56 ERA.  In reality, ERA’s so fickle that aiming for ERA is like throwing darts at a unicorn.

WHIP — 1.23

The average team’s pitchers had a 1.26 WHIP.  To win, you needed a 1.18 WHIP.  To move up a point from average (6.5 points), you needed an increase of .01.  I aim for a 9 in WHIP.  So I would want a 1.23 WHIP.

  1. Howard says:
    (link)

    Thanks Grey! This may be the key post of them all! You know what they say about RCL, if you can make it there, you can make it anywhere!

  2. Steve says:
    (link)

    Assuming you were keeping track during the draft of how your team was projecting, I’m guess Saves and Steals are two categories you wouldn’t sweat too much over if you were coming up a bit short.

    Any others?

  3. Steve says:
    (link)

    @Steve: Actually, looking at it from the other side probably makes more sense. What categories are you most concerned about nailing at the draft?

  4. NewBVick says:
    (link)

    As Bart Scott would say “Can’t Wait!”.

  5. A.J.K says:
    (link)

    how much would you scale these down in an 18-20 team league

  6. JoeC says:
    (link)

    So, adding up all your target point totals from each category results in 81 points overall. That seems a little light, doesn’t it? I don’t know what the average points total was for league winners in RCL leagues, but I would think it was above that number.

    I thought we were supposed to aim for 3rd in each category? That’s always been my guide.

  7. Jason says:
    (link)

    Need help on this keeper trade offer before it expires:
    Utley/Reyes/Crawford or Cano/Wright/Cruz
    12 team roto 5×5

  8. JoeC says:
    (link)

    @Jason: 2nd group.

    In keepers, beyond talent comparison, I usually go for the younger set.

  9. Jason says:
    (link)

    @JoeC – thanks.
    I ran some projections on each:
    Utley group: 55 HR, 233 RBI, 110 SB
    Cano group: 82 HR, 297 RBI, 46 SB
    Runs is a slight advantage to Utley’s group but negligible.

  10. Wilsonian says:
    (link)

    @Jason: surprisingly, I agree with JoeC. It’s pretty even talent-wise, but Utley is going to be 32 this season (I think), pretty sure the other three are all under 28.

  11. JoeC says:
    (link)

    @Wilsonian: Not that surprising, since I’m usually right. ;)

  12. Dingo says:
    (link)

    Great post — it’s helpful to know the per-player targets to shoot for during the draft!

    Did these leagues also have MI and CI? Standard Yahoo setup doesn’t have either, which I think is why my Yahoo league last year had fewer offensive counting stats across the board.

  13. JoeC says:
    (link)

    @Jason: Actually, the collective ages of the groups are closer than I thought they were:

    Utley – 32
    Reyes – 27
    Crawford – 29

    Cano – 28
    Wright – 28
    Cruz – 30

    For some reason, I thought Cruz was younger than he is.

    That said, I still go for the 2nd group because I think their collective skills will age better than that of the first group.

  14. JoeC says:
    (link)

    @Dingo: Yes, they did. I think it’s the ideal set-up, to have an MI and CI as roster spots.

  15. Wilsonian says:
    (link)

    @JoeC: ha, I meant I should probably disagree on principle…

    I also thought Cruz was much younger than that, and actually thought Reyes and Crawford were older. And unfortunately, I still agree with you and would go the Cano/Wright/Cruz route. [emoticon]

  16. Rhymenoceros says:
    (link)

    Tim Dierkes from RotoAuthority also publishes something similar to this. He always aims for a 4th place finish in all categories, which seems to work pretty well because most people with a decent draft strategy usually end up in the top 3 in a few categories. If a team finishes in 4th place in every category, it equals 90 points. That might not be enough to win a RCL, but at least it’s a good start. As usual, good stuff, Grey.

  17. carlos marmLOL says:
    (link)

    i hate to interrupt (LOOK AT MY MOCK TEAM) but have a question for anyone out there.

    i’m no mathlete, but i’m putting together z-scores for each category of my projections. i’m getting tripped up on something really simple, how do i standardize AVG and OPS? you know the whole 500 ABs of .290 is more valuable than 300 ABs of .295 problem.

    is it (H / AB) / some other factor? I can’t just use raw hits, right? Haven’t had my coffee yet.

  18. Tony says:
    (link)

    its all good until your 40+ HR guy hits 30, your 60 sb guy and then you’re scrambling…. yep im talking about you prince fielder and ellsbury (who i did not draft but acquired thru a trade last yr).

  19. Bermuda Triangles says:
    (link)

    Grey,
    12 team HTH league w 10 offensive players (2 util) and a $300 cap… which approach do you like better for keepers:

    Scenario A (lock in some HRs)
    42-R Howard, 37-A Rod, 14-J Werth, 2-Alexei Ram, 3-Y Gallardo, 2-C Billingsley

    Scenario B (only keep value)
    14-J Werth, 2-Alexei Rem, 3-Y Gallardo, 2-C Billingsley, 11-J Sanchez, 2-CJ Wilson

    At $42 and $37 on R-How and A-Rod in a 12 team league $300 auction, I think R-How might go higher, and A-Rod about the same so not much room for value.

    Preference? A or B?

    Bermuda Triangles
    Get Lost!

  20. Matt says:
    (link)

    @ carlos marmLOL

    I just came up with something yesterday for this scenario, and while not claiming any mathematical/statistical accuracy, this is what I did….

    1) calculated the average AB & PA, and the composite AVG, OBP, and SLG for the entire pool of players

    2) calculated the impact of each player would have to the “average” in each of the triple slash categories and used that number for Z-scores.

    So, let’s just say the average AB was 300 and the AVG for the pool was .275…

    Player A is projected for 500 AB and a .285 AVG
    Player B is projected for 300 AB and a .305 AVG

    ========
    Formulas
    ========

    Player A: ((300*.275)+(500*.285))/800)-.275 = .006
    Player B: ((300*.275)+(300*.305))/600)-.275 = .015

    So, instead of a 20 point difference in the AVG, there is only a 9 point difference.

    Obviously use PA rather than AB for OBP calculations, and AB for SLG.

  21. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    Hey, my internet’s down. (I’m on my phone.) Hopefully it’s back soon or I’ll go to the Apple store and answer questions from there at 10am PST. Until, help each other.

  22. OaktownSteve says:
    (link)

    @Joe C: I responded to your comment in the other post.

    @The Universe: It’s not who you draft, it’s how you draft. Obviously you want to have reasonable expectations for players and rank them accordingly, but you really can’t see into the future, much less control it. I think Rudy mentioned in his review of last year’s standings that you could “survive” two bad draft picks in the top 4 and still win. That’s because virtually every team is going to have some good luck and some bad luck. At minimum you would expect that 50% of the players you draft are going to fall short of their projections.

    You can’t get past the fact that luck will play a part. However, what you can control is the composition of your roster relative to your projections. I think it’s cliche to say that you can’t win the league on draft day but you can lose it. The way that you lose it is by not giving your team a chance to compete in enough categories to have a realistic chance of winning.

    Yesterday in another thread I talked about holding a draft using last year’s stats. Imagine that you held a 23 player, 12 draft and all 23 players full year stats from last year would be counted. You don’t have to worry about any projections; you have perfect knowledge of player performance. Imagine 11 of those players had a list of players with their stats only but could use no other tools. Now imagine that the 12th player was allowed to use Grey’s targets from above and keep a spreadsheet during the draft and track progress to the targets. Who do you think would win most often? If this doesn’t convince you that how is more important than who…

    By the way, I think it would be an awesome contest for “experts” to do a draft based on last year’s stats as described above with only a list of players, no other tools and no numbers in front of them. I think it would be a real test of the expert understanding of the game.

  23. Jake in Columbus says:
    (link)

    @carlos marmLOL:

    Here’s how I do it for AVG, which should be mathematically accurate. Calculate the total # of hits for your established pool of expected drafted hitters (hitter roster spots per team x # of teams), then divide this by their total # of AB to get their average AVG (avgAVG=SUM H/SUM AB). Next, subtract [avgAVG x each player's AB] from each player’s projected hits to get their expected hits (xH=H-[avgAVG*AB]). You can then calculate the SD of xH and generate standard scores from there. If you’re using Excel, these values will recalculate themselves as you sort data a few times until you get final values. Make sense?

    This link was helpful to me.
    http://www.lastplayerpicked.com/how-the-price-guide-works-part-i-standard-scores/

    You could pretty easily use the same concept for SLG, but not sure about OBP since the projections I use don’t include the necessary data. FYI, I also use the same concept to calculate ERA and WHIP using xER and xWH.

  24. carlos marmLOL says:
    (link)

    @Matt thanks for that, I’ve been playing around with something similar, although I’m pretty sure there is a simpler way to turn percentages into weighted full numbers and then do the z-score.

    I would be careful with calculating the composite AVG from the entire player pool. You might want to limit it to the universe of rostered players or the top 300 or so. I believe some ESPN writer noob used the whole universe last year and came up with Jacoby Ellsbury as a 1st rounder due to him being so dominant in projected steals relative to the entire league. Limit it to everyone not on the waiver wire and it that result dampens.

  25. @carlos marmLOL: Matt’s method makes some sense and I don’t work with z-scores but here’s the question. If a player is at 300 ABs, is this because he’s a part-time player or because he’s only going to play for specific months (either b/c of injury or he’s a prospect).

    If it’s the latter, you should add 200-250 ABs at the replacement level AVG. So if it’s a shallow league and you can get a league average hitter on FA or keep him on your bench, it would be ((.300*300) + (.275*200))/500.

    If it’s the former, you can’t add any replacement-level ABs. You need to project your total team’s ABs, determine the incremental/decremental value of the player’s AVG vs. the league average, and then weight the impact. So if you are playing with 13 hitters and expect an average of 500 ABs, you’re at 6,500 team ABs. The average impact for a player’s average is 1/13. You then weight this up/down based on the player’s ABs vs. the average.

    Since the former is the more likely case, I do this for Point Shares. This is incorrect for the subset of players (like Buster Posey 2010) whose stats should be supplemented by replacement value catcher stats (probably hurting him in AVG but helping in R/HR/RBI).

    Hope that helps…

  26. Matt says:
    (link)

    @ carlos marmLOL

    Yeah, by “player pool”, I mean that I use league specific rostered guys, not the entirety of baseball.

    (I do usually start with all the expected MLB starters/key platoon players to narrow down which guys would expected to compose the drafted rosters in each of my leagues)

  27. carlos marmLOL says:
    (link)

    @Jake xH was what I was looking for, thanks
    @Matt your model is super useful too, will keep toying around with that
    @Rudy very helpful with he supplement advice!

  28. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Howard: No problem.

    @Steve: Concerned about nailing — power categories and Ks.

    @NewBVick: Ha

    @A.J.K: That’s more of a question for Rudy. I’ll make sure he sees it.

    @JoeC: It’s just what you’re aiming for at your draft — the top of the pack.

    @Jason: Agree with JoeC.

    @Dingo: They were RCLs. MI, CI, 5 OF, one UTIL.

    @Rhymenoceros: Thanks!

    @Tony: True… It just puts you in the competition at the start of the season. It’s not foolproof.

    @Bermuda Triangles: A

    @OaktownSteve: I think AJ Mass did something similar at ESPN. His conclusion was that you can’t win even if you know the end results. Unfortunately, he didn’t consider if he can’t win simply because he’s a moron.

  29. OaktownSteve says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Thanks for pointing me to that. Not an ESPN reader. Here’s the link.

    http://sports.espn.go.com/fantasy/baseball/flb/story?page=hindsight110127

    Amazing that he stumbled into a thought and just completely wiffed on the implications. His conclusion is that you can’t be assured of your assessments of worth? That value is subject to interpretation? Ridiculous. In the way he structured his experiment with the same player allowed on multiple teams he actually simplified it quite a bit because it eliminates a variable. In that scenario, you can figure out the optimal mix of players pretty easily. You just need a computer and some math.

    The point he missed is that value is determined not just by the stats of the player but is heavily influenced by the context of the other variables like win targets, roster composition etc.

    I think his experiment pretty much sums up how little most “experts” actually understand what they’re talking about. I love how he sort of arbitrarily says “I’ll latch on to Hamilton” and “I’ll pass on Ramirez” just arbitrarily. Come on, run some numbers, dude.

  30. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @OaktownSteve: Yeah, just when you think he can’t out-dumb himself, he manages to.

  31. Tom says:
    (link)

    Grey – what do you think about grabbing jay bruce at round 5 – I love him and I feel like hes going to be last years cargo.

  32. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Tom: 5 * 12 teams — Pick 60? Yeah, you’re gonna have to grab him around there in most leagues. I said in the top 100 that Bruce is going to be this year’s CarGo.

  33. Tony says:
    (link)

    @Tom: i like bruce as much as the next guy, i’ve actually drafted him the past 2-3 yrs in my one league, but im not sure about my 5th round pick this year. He HAS to be cargo from 2010 at that point. If you wanna make sure you have him i guess thats what you gotta do…. the talents there its just a matter of time.

  34. jonnycat says:
    (link)

    I did the same thing for my league, a 15-teamer. The lineups are changed weekly. Instead of looking at how many total Wins, Saves, and Holds (Yeah, we use Holds.) I need for the year I’m looking at how many I need to avergae per week to keep pace. If I fall too far behind in any one category I may adjust my lineup/roster to compensate.

  35. Moonlight's Grahams says:
    (link)

    Yahoo! baseball opened today. Come on Razzball! I want to crack the top 10% this year.

  36. @A.J.K: Modeled it for 18 teams – here’s what I got (taking Grey’s estimate and multiplying by the below).

    R 92%
    HR 91%
    RBI 93%
    SB 84%
    AVG 98%
    W 87%
    SV 73%
    ERA 98%
    WHIP 99%
    K 86%

  37. Here are the weights for 20 team:

    R 89%
    HR 88%
    RBI 89%
    SB 80%
    AVG 98%
    W 86%
    SV 66%
    ERA 96%
    WHIP 98%
    K 85%

  38. FYI, if you add up your team’s point shares per category (assuming same format as what I post), you’ll have a rough idea of your finish). So if your team adds up to +2.0 in a category, it’s saying 4th or 5th place (6.5 – 2).

    It gets a bit wonky if you draft someone who isn’t touted for full-time play.

  39. Bob says:
    (link)

    Grey:

    Little help on the keepers this year. Pick 6:

    Mark Teixiera
    Jose Reyes
    Carlos Gonzalez
    Matt Holliday
    Alex Rios

    Adam Wainwright
    Ubaldo Jimenez
    Zack Greinke
    Max Scherzer

    I’m looking at either all the offense plus Wainwright and Ubaldo or the same but swapping Greinke in for Rios.

  40. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @jonnycat: Yeah, could see how that would be useful. Hard to say what each guy will do week to week though, let alone over a year.

    @Moonlight’s Grahams: They opened yesterday. Don’t know what cracking the top 10% means.

  41. Bob says:
    (link)

    Well what I was thinking adds up to 7 so…forget that. Who should I keep (pick 6)?

  42. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Bob: All offense plus Wainwright and Ubaldo.

  43. @OaktownSteve: Interested in doing a 12-team 2010 mock draft to see how it plays out?

  44. Moonlight's Grahams says:
    (link)

    @Grey: I feel oblivious. I wanted to crack the top 10% of Rudy’s Razzball leagues, I was in top 15% last year, hoping to get 1/10 of a hot tub.

  45. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Bob: Leave off Ubaldo.

    @Moonlight’s Grahams: Ah… Gotcha. The hot tub was for the Fantasy Razzball leagues though.

  46. NewBVick says:
    (link)

    Are the Razzball leagues open to the public like the Commentator Leagues? Razzball leagues being the leagues where the worst players are the best. Was looking foward to something fresh this year.

  47. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @NewBVick: They’re all open to the public.

  48. AZ Bobblehead says:
    (link)

    Quick keeper question for you guys. Our league has a unique keeper rule: You can up to 5 players from prior year, but every third year the player must reenter the draft. For example, Miguel Cabrera can be drafted in year 1, keeper in years 2 and 3, but then goes back to the draft in year 4.

    We use ESPN for our league (H2H, 12 teams). Rounds 1-5 of the draft are the keeper rounds, but if you don’t have a keeper in that round, you get a draft pick from the players that entered the draft.

    Here’s my dilemma:

    I have 5 guys that are top 30 in Grey’s rankings – – Kemp, CarGo, Upton, B. Phillips, and Heyward. I drafted all them last year, so I can keep them for the 2011 and 2012 seasons. Last year was a year a lot of players hit the draft, so there will likely be a high number of players selected as keepers in 2011. However, Adrian Gonzalez must enter the draft in our league this year and will probably be the first non-keeper chosen. ARod is the only other top 20 player that will definitely be in the draft – – I won’t know which other players are in the draft until after the keeper deadline.

    So, do I select NO keepers and have a shot at drafting Adrian Gonzalez with my first pick and redrafting some of my players (or players that weren’t selected as keepers) in the first five rounds….OR….do I just keep my 5 players that are ranked in the top 30?

    Sorry for the long comment/question.

  49. OaktownSteve

    OaktownSteve says:
    (link)

    @Rudy: I would definitely be in.

  50. Wilsonian says:
    (link)

    @AZ Bobblehead: can you keep three of them and try to draft A-Gonz with one of your early round picks, or is that not something you can do? I would rather have Gonzalez over Upton and Phillips, but I’m kinda “eh” on having him ahead of the other three guys (Kemp, CarGo, Heyward) – Grey may see things differently.

    I don’t know who all is going to be in your draft pool, but from what you said there, it looks like you could possibly end up with some slightly worse options than what you already have. It just depends on who in your league keeps players, who is kept, and if you’re cool with rolling the dice.

  51. AZ Bobblehead says:
    (link)

    @Wilsonian:

    I can definitely keep 3 and roll the dice with the last 2 “keeper” picks. Thanks for the advice.

  52. AJK says:
    (link)

    thanks rudy

  53. Eddy says:
    (link)

    @Rudy Gamble:

    Sure, count me in.

  54. Eddy says:
    (link)

    Are there any apparent holes in this mock? 12-team H2H.

    1. Joey Votto (Cin – 1B)
    2. Ryan Zimmerman (Was – 3B)
    3. Matt Holliday (StL – OF)
    4. Clayton Kershaw (LAD – SP)
    5. Jay Bruce (Cin – OF)
    6. Chris Young (Ari – OF)
    7. Roy Oswalt (Phi – SP)
    8. Elvis Andrus (Tex – SS)
    9. Brett Anderson (Oak – SP)
    10. Aaron Hill (Tor – 2B)
    11. Adam Lind (Tor – 1B,OF)
    12. José Valverde (Det – RP)
    13. Daniel Hudson (Ari – SP)
    14. Jose Tabata (Pit – OF)
    15. John Axford (Mil – RP)
    16. Craig Kimbrel (Atl – RP)
    17. Ian Kennedy (Ari – SP)
    18. Kevin Gregg (Bal – RP)
    19. Carlos Zambrano (ChC – SP,RP)
    20. Chris Sale (CWS – RP)
    21. Chris Iannetta (Col – C)
    22. Freddie Freeman (Atl – 1B)
    23. Mike Minor (Atl – SP)

  55. @Eddy: Love your first 3 picks. Matt Holliday in 3rd round of 12 team – that’s great. My only comment is you went a little too SB happy for a H2H league at the potential expense of HR/RBI/AVG. Andrus and Tabata will be below average in all three while Chris Young will hurt you in the latter. I’d trade Tabata for an OF with 20 HR/90 RBI/.270+ potential.

  56. Eddy says:
    (link)

    @Rudy Gamble:

    Duly noted. The Tabata pick was more so to help out AVG (Isn’t he supposed to be a .300 guy?). I was actually debating that same exact issue: should i take power and low avg or avg and speed?

    Travis Snider is usually my util. man crush, and I’m sure he fits the bill of what you suggest I go after.

    Thanks.

  57. Tony says:
    (link)

    Luke scott got $6.4 million? man i’m going to look for my glove and 34/29 inch easton right now…. I should be able to get $2.7 mil?

  58. Black Beard says:
    (link)

    Just did a mock, curious of what everyone thinks. 12 team, picked out of the 11 spot. All opinions welcome.

    1. David Wright (NYM – 3B)
    2. Ryan Howard (Phi – 1B)
    3. Justin Upton (Ari – OF)
    4. Nelson Cruz (Tex – OF)
    5. Hunter Pence (Hou – OF)
    6. Jay Bruce (Cin – OF)
    7. Yovani Gallardo (Mil – SP)
    8. Elvis Andrus (Tex – SS)
    9. Colby Rasmus (StL – OF)
    10. Clay Buchholz (Bos – SP)
    11. Aaron Hill (Tor – 2B)
    12. Francisco Rodríguez (NYM – RP)
    13. José Valverde (Det – RP)
    14. Jose Tabata (Pit – OF)
    15. Daniel Hudson (Ari – SP)
    16. Edinson Vólquez (Cin – SP)
    17. Jhoulys Chacin (Col – SP,RP)
    18. Johnny Cueto (Cin – SP)
    19. Ryan Raburn (Det – 2B,OF)
    20. Edwin Jackson (CWS – SP)
    21. Frank Francisco (Tor – RP)
    22. Chris Iannetta (Col – C)
    23. Manny Ramírez (TB – OF)

  59. Mike from Jersey says:
    (link)

    1. How much does Ryan Dempster’s massive slider usage (34-35% over the past 2 seasons) bother you? Big red flag?
    2. How many innings do you think Brett Anderson throws this year.

    3. Help me out. Im in a pitching tailored points league. 5 player keeper. a ton of pitchers are kept, so im taking a pitcher round 1 because the rest of the options aside from about 4-5 are tossups. i have josh johnson, gallardo, and hamels to start off with. The top available starters are scherzer, billingsley, wandy, d.hudson, nolasco, dempster, danks, b.anderson. After that it’s a bunch of toss ups (de la rosa, r. romero, beckett, etc.) im pretty sure billingsley and scherzer are taken before my pick. i dont want wandy cuz he’s old and bad team. and im dont want nolasco. leaving dempster, hudson, danks, dempster. so with the starting 3 i have, do you think i should take another solid guy in dempster/danks, or go upside with hudson/anderson?
    please answer all 3. thanks!

  60. Tom Thumb says:
    (link)

    Grey,

    I saved these averages from last year and they were great! Just wanted to say thanks!

    I have a few questions for you… I was wondering why you are so low on Garrett Jones. I know he was poised to break out last year and didn’t. Do you worry about possible platoon issues?

    What are your thoughts on Jon Jay and Mike Morse? Think either of these guys get regular playing time/are worth a hoot?

  61. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Tony: I’m tellin’ ya.

    @Black Beard: I don’t like Buchholz and after that you have upside that I like but very little to rely on. Your hitting is obviously stacked.

    @Tom Thumb: I’m not low on Jones. He will platoon though. Diaz is facing lefties. Morse could breakout and will cover him at some point. Jon Jay’s kinda meh.

  62. Steve says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Good to have you back.

    Did the mouse fall off the wheel?

  63. Hennessey says:
    (link)

    Grey, I just did a 12 team mock, ESPN style. Was intending to try the back-to-back 1B thing, but changed my mind and took Longoria with the 5th pick over Votto. Anyway, I was wondering what you (and anyone else) might think about it.

    C-(R12 #140)-Napoli, Michael1B (wanted Wieters, missed by 1 pick)
    1B-(R4 #44)-Morneau, Justin (when I missed my 1B in round 2, it was Morneau or Dunn here, and Dunn went a few picks before)
    2B-(R5 #53)-Kinsler, Ian
    3B-(R1 #5)-Longoria, Evan
    SS-(R24 #284)-Brignac, Reid (hey, why not)
    OF-(R2 #20)-Kemp, Matt (almost went Holliday)
    OF-(R3 #29)-Upton, Justin
    OF-(R7 #77)-Bruce, Jay
    OF-(R10 #116)-Stubbs, Drew
    OF-(R19 #221)-Torres, Andres
    MI-(R22 #260)-Rodriguez, Sean
    CI-(R13 #149)-Pena, Carlos
    UTIL-(R8 #92)-Lind, Adam

    SP-(R6 #68)-Jimenez, Ubaldo
    SP-(R9 #101)-Rodriguez, Wandy (top tier pitching started to get real thin so I reached)
    SP-(R11 #125)-Hudson, Dan
    SP-(R14 #164)-Vazquez, Javier
    SP-(R16 #188)-Gonzalez, Gio
    SP-(R17 #197)-Romero, Ricky
    SP-(R20 #236)-Cueto, Johnny
    SP-(R23 #269)-Norris, Bud

    RP-(R15 #173)-Valverde, Jose
    RP-(R18 #212)-Broxton, Jonathan
    RP-(R21 #245)-Thornton, Matt
    RP-(R25 #293)-Farnsworth, Kyle

    Any thoughts? Thanks.

  64. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Steve: I found the mouse, but you know what sucks? Firefox Beta. I wish I didn’t upgrade so quickly.

  65. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Hennessey: Your average is terrible, your power is decent, your steals are okay but reliant on Stubbs and Torres. Your pitching looks decent.

  66. Steve says:
    (link)

    @Grey: Look at you the early adopter! I am hearing some bad things about it.

    I use Firefox here at work, though it’s crusty old 3.6 so it chugs along OK. Chrome or Safari on the Macbook at home though.

  67. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @Steve: If my computer didn’t crash causing me to lose all my programs, I wouldn’t have downloaded the newest version. I didn’t even really do it on purpose.

  68. MKEeast says:
    (link)

    Why do you have arbitrary targets for each category? Seems like as the draft goes on, grab whatever value there is to be had…

  69. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @MKEeast: Lots of reasons, the most basic one is if you’re in a 12 team league, once you get a 12 in a category, you can’t turn it to 13.

  70. pjtres says:
    (link)

    grey, im in a keeper league we keep 6 with NO restrictions…as long as you want.

    can you please tell how to rank which 6 youd keep?

    Utley, votto, mccutchen, j-up, cliff lee, miggy cab, longo, jay bruce, uggla

    thanks!

  71. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @pjtres: Miggy, Votto, Utley, McCutchen, Justin Upton, Longoria…

  72. pjtres says:
    (link)

    thanks…so you think mcC is a better bet long term than j-up?

  73. BPro says:
    (link)

    D Hudson – $1
    C Kershaw – $5
    D Pedroia – $10
    N Cruz – $1
    C Crawford – $16
    R Zimmerman – $30
    J Lester – $17

    I have identified these guys as my keepers in an auction league. I can keep 6 of these guys for $5 more dollars for the 2011 season. (2010 price shown)
    What 6 should I keep? I am torn between Zpack and Daniel Hudson..
    Does anyone have any opinions?

  74. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @pjtres: Sorry, no. That wasn’t ranked. Miggy, Votto, Longoria, Upton, McCutchen….

    @BPro: Hudson doesn’t get kept there.

  75. AaronJ says:
    (link)

    Any math types out there??? – Is there some kind of algorithm that I can roughly apply to these numbers for a 14 team league? Why we agreed to a 14 team league 10 years ago I don’t know, but we don’t have the heart to contract to 12. Thanks – Aaron

  76. Grey

    Grey says:
    (link)

    @AaronJ: I’ll post a 10 and 14 team league one next week.

  77. BPro says:
    (link)

    Thanks Grey!
    So $35 for Zimmerman sounds ok – not overpaying?

  78. yanee tan says:
    (link)

    hey grey, is the RCL still open for signup? I wanna join…

  79. Derek in Utah says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey, have you ever done any NL Only or AL Only Leagues?

    I’m in one of each, and here’s the kicker: 13 managers in each league.

    Tough competition indeed.

  80. AaronJ says:
    (link)

    @D in Utah – that sounds like ‘baseball’, not fantasy baseball.

  81. Dan says:
    (link)

    @Grey:

    > I’ll post a 10 and 14 team league one next week.

    So, uh, not to be a total ingrate or anything, but… how about it, Grey?

  82. Bill Lumbergh says:
    (link)

    @Razzball Nation: Does anyone know of a tool that can assess the value of draft picks in trades (similar to the standard formulas that they use for moving up or down in the “real” NFL draft. For example, in my 16 team dynasty league, I’ve been offered an extra 1st round pick (#16) for my 3rd (#42) and 4th (#55) round picks. I’d also be curious what you think about this trade offer.

    Thanks everyone!

  83. Mo-lassy says:
    (link)

    Could you make any predictions about targets for holds, OPS, and QS for a 12 team league?

Comments are closed.