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There was quite an interest with my recent foray into the statistical side of Major League Baseball and how we can apply it to our fantasy baseball teams. That intersect exists solely because we, as managers of our teams, are always looking for an edge. Yes, we are competitive despite living in our mother’s basements. Priorities baby. I have continued my quest to learn more and more about how we can harness this advanced information and, sort-of-speak, create a toolbox with nifty things in it to examine players of interest for both you, the readership, and myself.

The first step was to explain batter and pitcher thresholds, which, in a nutshell, was finding chronological points, whether it be plate appearances or batters faced, where certain skills stabilize. The power to say, with confidence, that a player doing x will continue to do so, or what he is doing is simply a mirage, is quite useful. The second step was then to start looking at interesting cases as each threshold was met. The first one was Contact%, and you can revisit my post on that topic here. But, right now, the very premise needs to be updated, as some things have changed.

Before we get to the new numbers, special thanks goes to Razzball commentator Fish, who actually was as interested as I was about this topic, maybe even more so, and discovered new data that changes the dynamic. So what does all of this mean? Are we blowing everything up? No, but we do have newer points to compare data with, and that are also more accurate as well. Now, these numbers aren’t that dissimilar from the ones I listed in the previous iteration of this post, but we now have better ones, and more of them, which, to me, is a good thing.

The past research I did was mainly rooted to a study that basically took samples of plate appearances from a pool of players, divided them in two, and then correlated them to each other to reduce noise and find a point of stabilization. But there was plenty of other noise going on, in that the study had some flaws inherent to the process that may have generated less than accurate results. Because of this, there have been a couple of new methodologies set forth, and you are welcome to explore them yourselves. They will be cited at the end of this post.

However, just to get to the meat of this matter, because, you know, steaks bro. Let’s go over the new and improved stabilization marks.

 

Batter Thresholds

Stat Stabilizes
K% 60 PA
BB% 120 PA
HR% 170 PA
ISO 160 AB
SLG 320 AB
OBP 460 PA
AVG 910 AB
HR/FB 50 FBs
GB% 80 BIP
FB% 80 BIP
LD% 600 BIP
BABIP 820 BIP

Pitcher Thresholds 

Stat Stabilizes
K/9 70 BF
BB/9 170 BF
HR/9 1320 BF
OBP 540 BF
AVG 630 BF
SLG 550 AB
ISO 630 AB
GB% 70 BIP
FB% 70 BIP
LD% 650 BIP
HR/FB 400 FB
BABIP 2000 BIP

Please Note: BF is Batters Faced. BIP is Balls In Play. FB is Flyballs.

 

What does this mean in terms of how I’ve implemented the older studies to my analysis? Well, while the previous study was flawed, almost everything generally is when we try to do something like this. That’s basically why regression is such a strong concept in statistics. In that regard, the analysis can still be right or wrong, but the reasons why it was right or wrong have changed a bit. And the level of rightness and wrongness, sort-of-speak, have changed as well. It doesn’t make what we’ve already learned useless, it just means that the process going forward will be much more accurate. For example, if you look at the same data through the new thresholds, the conclusion will most likely end up being the same. Norichika Aoki is still a very good baseball player. Ryan Howard is very much not, just to name a couple players that I analyzed with the old data.

So yes, I’ll be changing up how these numbers are used in future posts following this theme, and will be sure to take note of players who have made changes based on the above benchmarks. I’m excited to delve back into the data.

Remember, I take no credit for the actual process. This is data stems from my own grasp of the information found, and was also helped by Razzball commentator Fish. I want to make sure credit is given where its due, so if you’d like to take a gander at the methodology of the studies used as the basis of this post, you can find it here and here.

From Around The Web

  1. Paul says:
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    Would you drop Kyle Seager to pick up josh Donaldson?
    I’m in a 12 team league…my starting 3b is chase headly….Seager is on the bench…and believe it or not, Donaldson is still available off waivers.

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Paul: i’d hold, but not sure why he’s on waivers in a 12 team. Its really a flip of the coin here.

  2. Nick says:
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    Hey All,

    Have a question regarding starting pitchers today and they start within the hour!

    I have;
    Dickey @ NYY
    Tillman v TB
    Bailey @ PHI
    Wood v NYM

    I’m currently +20IP on the season, I was thinking start 3 & bench Tillman. I have 9/12 points on Saves/Ks, 8.5pts on W & ERA (6) WHIP (7)…and there all of out 12

    WHO DO I BENCH, IF ANY? TO save some inning and save myself from further destroying my WHIP/ERA!?

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Nick: prolly Tillman and Wood.

    • A Hill O' Beans says:
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      @Nick: TOR /NYY has apparently been postponed to another day, so you can probably drop Dickey from your options.

      • Nick says:
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        @A Hill O’ Beans: Yep, I’m in NY and its been raining consistently so DICKEY is out!

        jaywrong- You would bench Tillman & Wood, only starting Bailey??? I know I’m 20IP but I do need Wins & to lower my WHIP/ERA…I’m a diehard Met fan & Wright/Murphy are starting to click / have multi-hit games again so Wood could hurt my WHIP, however overall the MEts are not hitting & Woods been great (LOL)…I’m feeling starting all 3 despite my IP!

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @Nick: that’s fine, I just don’t believe in Wood, more of a gut feeling.

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Nick: theres that too.

  3. Wake Up says:
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    Howard or Belt or Lind ROS?

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Wake Up: eh, Belt, since I don’t like the other guys much.

  4. T Moore says:
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    Mr Jay Wrong: Carry over from last thread:

    All is retaliative to the rules of the game and its player universe..

    A $2 Moreland in a deep 12 team Ultra AL league (esp when there were only 14 teams in the AL) at a low price has had a good career…He still is being carried on a team there unreturned to the puddle with a contract extension… A league where every MLB offensive player is rostered, very few with more than 250 forecast ABs are not taken at auction and inflation runs rampant has had a good career if they are FAs…

    Especially, when compared to the touted prospects whose names we all have forgotten who went far above him in that year…

    Example :A of the time a Tim Beckham maybe… (Will he ever hit???… He is worth eyeballing these days for deep play as he is well off the radar… Hitting 275 in Durham as I write) Stranger things have happened…

    No, I don’t care for traveling much… I’m a down from the door kinda guy – Do surf the library a bunch though… Below is one for Mr Gray… It says it all for me… Mr Gray had flippantly maligned this great kids show on one of his threads.. That nasty little bugger, him..

    HANDS OFF READING RAINBOW, GRAY!!!!!…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WfGhfI_NwcA

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @T Moore: Never mess with La Forge.

  5. fantasynoob says:
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    What about Brandon Morrow? Is that a trend? Never mind, I am totally fed-up. I dropped him today, and here’s what I posted:

    Mr. Morrow was charged with 3 counts today; nonperformance, being a fantasy tease, and aggravated assault on fantasy ratios. He is being held indefinitely without bail on the waiver wire.

    But feel to come to his defense Jay.

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @fantasynoob: I was never high on him. Average pitcher that brings k’s and a risk for injury.

      • Fish says:
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        @jaywrong:

        Heck, he hasn’t even brought the K’s for the last 1.5 years. I’d like to believe he’ll “turn it around,”* but the K-rate stabilization point was met LONG ago as was the benchmark for BB/9, which is also worse than past years. The chance over a significant turnaround is slim.

        *I was a disgraced owner until Profar got called up today.

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @Fish: I agree.

          And yes, the Profar era begins, should be interesting. I’m actually looking forward to seeing how his slick defense translates to the keystone.

  6. Gareth says:
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    I just picked up Teheran, dropping Garcia. I had to decide wether to to drop him for either a saves helper, or a wins helper. I an equally behind the leader in both categories (5 behind).

    The Choice was either bobby parnell (saves) or julio teheran (2 starts).

    Minnesota at home and The Mets Away was just too enticing a matchup. Agree? Or would you have gone the saves route and grabbed Parnell?

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Gareth: its okay temp wise, but I’m not high on teheran.

  7. Gareth says:
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    Please Pick three of these guys to sit in my CBS Weekly ROTO for Week 8:

    Homer Bailey (Cubs)
    Gallardo (LAD, PIT)
    GIo Gonzalez (@ San Fran)
    Felix (Tex)
    Lynn (@LAD)
    Cobb (@ Toronto)
    AJ Burnett (@ Brewers)
    Teheran (Twins, @ Mets)

    Betancourt (3 Arizona, 3 @ San Fran)
    Frieri (2 SEA, 4 @ Royals)
    Street (3 ST Loius, 3 @ Arizona)
    Greg Holland (4 Angels, 3 @ Houston)

    • fantasynoob says:
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      @Gareth: Teheran, Burnett, and Cobb…because I would definitely go with Bailey as my #1 matchup, not sitting F-Her, and for some reason I like Gallo at PIT regadless of what the SON says. I have Gio on indefinite suspension until he gets back into a groove.

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Gareth: Cobb, teheran, and street.

  8. Mike says:
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    Hi,

    I have Asdrubal Cabrera and Jean Segura and Ian Desmond just hit the wire.

    Do I drop either for Desmond?

    Thanks…

    Mike.

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Mike: Adrub.

  9. Wake Up says:
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    EverCab helping you out today…he only needs to get 1000 ABs at this pace…

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Wake Up: you talking about 120+ steals?

      • Wake Up says:
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        @jaywrong: I am…I’m liking having him at MI though…

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @Wake Up: Well, since I said 70+, he’s close enough to where I can dream.

          He’s providing awesome value so far.

  10. Fish says:
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    It’s unnecessary, but I appreciate the shout-out nonetheless.

    And if I’m more interested in the correlation of baseball statistics and their confidence levels, it’s only because I’ve lived in my mother’s basement long then you. (CUE: sobbing uncontrollably)

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Fish: Well, I certainly didn’t find that link.

      I too, sob uncontrollably in my mother’s basement…

      • Fish says:
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        @jaywrong:

        And it just a happenstance find too since I was trying to figure out the idea behind ISO allowed. Plus, the BaseballProspectus research (for pitchers, at least) was new – the article was only posted last week.

        The real underlying issue here is that I need to find myself a new hobby other than looking at baseball statistics, or I need to turn this into a job.

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @Fish: Hah, well, you know where to find Grey at.

  11. ShaneO says:
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    Should I cut or hold Cingrani?? I need to clear a spot for Andrew Bailey, and I need to cut either Cingrani or Tim Hudson . Thanks

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @ShaneO: In a redraft, that’s fine. He might be back, but I think Hudson will regress a bit.

  12. Revenge of the NNNEEERRRRDDDDDSSSS says:
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    Question on analyzing BABIP…

    For either a pitcher or a batter, you should analyze it against that player’s recent historical average, not the league average, correct? Better hitters have a higher BABIP than league average, and better pitchers have a lower BABIP than league average, correct? Because they either hit the ball harder (higher line-drive %, e.g.) or induce softer batted balls (are ground ball pitchers, e.g.), right?

    So, if some other boob site out there discusses that Matt Cain is due for a significant (unfavorable) regression in his BABIP because it’s currently 50 points lower than the league average, previewing even more problems than his numbers indicate today, they’re mis-applying BABIP, correct? Cain’ 2013 BABIP sits at .242, his 2009-2012 average is .263, and the 2009-2012 league average is .296. In a vacuum, his BABIP should regress slightly, but not significantly, right?

    Or maybe I’m the boob and haven’t picked up how to apply it yet. Thanks in advance! Keep up the great work!

    • goodfold2 says:
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      @Revenge of the NNNEEERRRRDDDDDSSSS: that sounds right, however, it is always discussed how some pitchers constantly play over normal BABIP’s like Cain/Weaver.

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Revenge of the NNNEEERRRRDDDDDSSSS: I just saw this notification. Yes, compare to career numbers. League average is useful for other things.

      Matt Cain is just one of those guys who outperform his peripherals constantly. This is usually a magic mix of stuff, but mainly having a good skillset based on your home environment. Cain’s problem is more of a crummy fastball this year. There is some velo loss, but I think in the end, he’ll have a solid but not great year. It happens.

      If you’re a boob, get another one. I need pairs.

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