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Grey:  What is Ryan Braun worth in 2012?

Rudy:  Not sure.  I’d like to know what is Jayson Werth’s brawn in 2012?!

Silence.

Silence.

Rudy:  Oh, right, this is the time of year where you need me to be mathy vs. contribute sarcastic titles and player notes.

Grey:  Yup.

Rudy:  Okay, I’ll write it up a post.

————-

Assuming Ryan Braun and his bubbe can’t argue away his 50-game suspension, determining his proper draft position is conceptually hard (in reality, it is easy as ESPN/Yahoo!/CBSSports.com drafters will have an ADP as a starting point).  While crowdsourced data like ADP can be quite good, this is such a unique instance that it might be a greater opportunity or bigger sucker bet than the usual draft pick.

Here is the basic formula I’d use to determine Ryan Braun’s value for 2012 in a 12-team mixed league with 5 OF / 1 UTIL / 3 bench spots / 1250 IP cap / daily roster changes:

Braun’s Projected Stats (over roughly 70% of a season) + Replacement OF Stats for (over roughly 30% of a season) – Opportunity Cost of Giving Up a 3rd Bench spot For 50 Games.

Let’s start with the easy part – prorating Braun’s stats to a 112 game season.  ZiPs estimates Braun’s full season would have been .296/97/30/107/22 over 608 ABs.  I multiplied each of these numbers by 112/162 and got:  420 AB/67/21/74/15.

Here are the OFs that ranked from 57th to 63rd in the end of year Player Rater (will be up later this week):  Dexter Fowler, Bobby Abreu, Jason Bay, Will Venable, Juan Rivera, Delmon Young, Nyjer Morgan.  Average this motley crew’s stats together and you get:  .264/60/8/51/14 over 442 ABs.  Multiply that by 50/162 and you get:   136 AB/19/3/16/4.

Combine these projections together (weighting the Batting Average based on AB) and you get:  .288/556 ABs/86/24/90/19.  I plugged that stat line into last year’s rankings and then weighted hitters and pitchers to reflect typical drafting behavior (i.e., a $180 hitter/$80 pitcher mix).  Net result:  Composi-Braun’s stats would’ve ranked as the 47th best player at $22 (e.g., Andrew McCutchen, Jay Bruce).

That leaves us with the most abstract of the three calculations – what is the value of giving up your 3rd bench spot for roughly 30% of a season?  This value is going to vary based on your drafting ability, luck, and whether you choose a hitter vs. pitcher.  But we can still break it into three components:

  1. Playing Stats During the 50 Games – Since this player is worse than your starting players, it’s assumed you’d only start them when your hitter/pitcher has an off-day (or bad matchup).
  2.  Value in Adding to a Trade – While benched players don’t have a chance to contribute much in the stat line, they could bring value as trade filler.
  3.  Lottery Ticket – The player you had stashed on your bench ends up being a very good player and ends up replacing a weak link in your roster.

For #1, the greatest value comes from relievers who can be slotted in during your starting pitcher’s off days.  Let’s assume you pick a solid middle reliever with a full year line of 60 IP / 3 wins / 3 saves / 50 K / 3.00 ERA / 1.10 WHIP and you can use him 80% of the time.  That would net out to:    14 IP / 0.7 W / 0.7 SV / 12 Ks.  Throw in a little credit for ERA/WHIP, and you’re maybe at about 0.8 of a standings point.  That doesn’t sound like a lot but 0.8 standings points is worth $2 based on my Point Share calculations (for the 12 team MLB format).

If you went with a hitter, you’re looking at a similar yearly line that we used for the replacement OF (.264/60/8/51/14) multiplied by 0.3 (for 50 out of 162 games) and then by 0.2 (about 1.5 games out of 7 where you have an opening to play them).  This nets out to a measly 4/0.5/3/1 line which totals out to 0.5 standing points or roughly $1.

So for #1, we’ve got an estimate of $1-$2.

For #2, I’m just going to assume $0 since the chances that your 3rd bench spot has any trade value is low.

For #3, I’ve found most of a team’s later round and bench picks usually end up on the waiver wire in a shallow league format like 12-team MLB.  There were 37 players who I valued at $10+ for end of year that Grey ranked at the equivalent of $3 or less (out of top 200).  Only 8 of those players were drafted in the majority of Razzball Commenter Leagues:  Asdrubal Cabrera (ADP 222), Michael Bourn (108), Starlin Castro (153), Jhonny Peralta (~250), Kyle Farnsworth (~250), Ryan Madson (~250), Coco Crisp (238), and Brandon League (235).  So throwing out Bourn and Castro, there were 6 players of notable value that could have been bench filler.  Since we’d be losing 33% of our bench spots, let’s assume we’d lose only 33% of these potential lottery tickets.  That nets out to 2 players in a 12 team league that might’ve been lost because of an occupied bench spot.  The average value of those 6 players was $14.   So missing out on a 16% chance to get a $14 player is worth $2.20.  (Note:  There are a whole bunch of variables/scenarios I left out for post brevity including 1) an owner might’ve still dropped the ‘lottery ticket’ in favor of another waiver pick, 2) the ‘lottery ticket’ wouldn’t be starting from day 1 so they wouldn’t earn their $10+ value, 3) there’s potential to have stashed someone worth $1-$9, 4) the replacement OF for Braun is the ‘lottery ticket’, etc.  Let’s pretend all these variables average out.)

If I figure that #1 and #3 have some overlap – the ‘lottery ticket’ would’ve either represented some of the part-time at-bats/IP or replaced a starter who became my off-the-bench plater, I’m going to say the opportunity cost of a bench spot is in the range of $3-$4.

So $22 minus $3.50 = $18.50 which is about the 60th most valuable player from last year (Carlos Beltran, Adam Jones).  So end of 5th round/early 6th round SHOULD be Ryan Braun’s ADP.  Right now, ESPN has him at 39, Yahoo has him at 48, Fleaflicker has him at 83 and Grey has him at 119.  It’ll be interesting to see where it ends up in the various leagues (including Razzball Commenter Leagues).

From Around The Web

  1. giantjj says:
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    So around pick 70 in a 12 team league is fair value. Anything after that would be good value. what round would you take Braun in a 20 team league with 28 rostered including 6 bench spots?

    • @giantjj, With 20 team + 6 bench, the replacement value hitter would go down while the bench spot would lose most of its value. Assuming 5 OFs, I’d say the replacement value hit is worse and I’d drop him an extra 10 picks or so.

  2. Steve says:
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    Rudy – great to hear from you again. I’d be surprised if I end up owning Braun in any roto leagues this year, but be interested to know how you see his value in H2H leagues.
    In this case, obviously you’re more concerned with what he does on a week-to-week basis, rather than over the course of a season.

    • Tony says:
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      @Steve, thats exactly my thoughts on braun, in roto where you want his total cumulative stat line i dont like him, but in H2H where the main goal is make the playoffs and be hot at the end of the year, I like him quite a bit, especially if you can get a discount. Now in many leagues if I’m having to waste my 3rd round pick on him, im out. With no prince, no PEDS, a line up that includes rickie weeks and aramis ramirez? bleh… its not gonna be the same braun.

    • @Steve, Thanks! I don’t think the H2H format changes Braun’s value very much. You still are getting replacement OF stats for the first 2 months and that’ll cost you some wins. While bench hitters have almost no value in weekly H2H (they have value in daily H2H), SPs have tons of value in weekly H2H as you can rotate starters based on favorable matchups and whether they have 1 or 2 starts. Tying up a bench spot for Braun would probably have a similar opportunity cost as outlined for 12-team roto. So I’d still say end of 5th/early 6th is the earliest I’d draft him.

  3. AJ says:
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    This is great analysis. But what about in a head to head league where you’d have him for the playoffs, which count more than the games earlier in the season?

    • @AJ, See the note I left under Steve’s comment. I don’t think H2H changes his value any.

  4. Muchaco says:
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    Welcome back Rudy!

  5. Bourne says:
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    This is my thinking. It has way less logic then yours. Braun will miss 50 games. Therefore, if you can survive without him for 50 games, and get a top 10 player for the last 100 games, then you are going to be awesome. He should be your third OF because 50 games is a third of a season. I feel like 5-6 round is a second OF range, so that is early. If he were around 100 overall Braun would have good value.

    In a H2H league he is more valuable because the stats from the first two months are already already in your record. If he is your #2 OF that makes a lot more sense. However, attempting to throw in your logic about the bench player and typically that means I have one less pitcher on my Roster in H2H prior to June 1. That could easily cost me a couple points in stats like wins or Ks. I could make this up in a streamer spot, but that is a coin flip every time for success.

    So now I just looked at stats from last year, and Braun could easily get a final stat like like Adam Jones…Now I am just rambling.

    What about the factor that Braun was on PEDs and he could come back and hit .260 instead of .320? What about the factor that he lost Fielder and won’t have the protection to see the best pitches?

    • @Bourne, “This is my thinking. It has way less logic than yours.” Great opening lines. I wish certain politicians would start with those two lines before suggesting something like unfunding mass transit (http://www.salon.com/2012/02/13/the_tea_partys_war_on_mass_transit/singleton/)

      It’s tough to predict what the impact of no Prince Fielder or PEDS will be on Braun. Braun had a career year in 2011 so he was bound for some regression any way. I think the 296/97/30/107/22 line I showed (assuming 600 ABs) is realistic.

      I’ll say this…I’d rather someone wait until pick 100 for Braun than pick him #40. It hurts a lot more to overdraft a player than to let a bargain go….there are always more bargains.

  6. TheNewGuy says:
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    Wow…great analysis. So basically he goes from being Ryan Braun value to Jay Bruce to Adam Jones. 60 overall is way higher than I see him going on ESPN, so I don’t think I’ll get him this year, but it’s good to know what he’s really worth if he somehow falls.

    So when we see Ryan Brauns name up for auction this year guys, think Adam Jones.

  7. JEH says:
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    Well done.

    I will add:

    Braun becomes more valuable in leagues with deeper benches (where the production/opportunity loss from the bench becomes less pronounced) and/or without daily line-up changes (where you cannot take advantage of healthy players on your bench).

    Also, under opportunity cost, going after Braun, especially with a shallow bench, can prevent you from taking a player starting the season on the DL or extended spring training later in the auction/draft. It’s like filling your DH spot early.

    • @JEH, Good comments.

  8. Skeptic says:
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    @Rudy, congrats! I hope fatherhood is treating you well.

    • @Skeptic, Thanks. Treating me okay so far. We’ll see how much my wife/baby like me by Opening Day :)

  9. Eddy says:
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    Rudy,

    Great to hear from you again. Props on yesterday morning’s title.

    I wanted to as if you concurred with Grey on drafting Braun in a keeper league.

    In my league, you keep the player based on what round you drafted him, and he inflates three rounds every year after that.

    Is he worth a 4th round pick in a 12-team OBP league? He’d then be kept 4th round for 2013 and 1st in 2014.

    • @Eddy, Thanks. I had a nice offseason to get my punny bone healthy.

      I’d project Braun as a 1st round pick in 2013 so taking him a little early in 2012 would net you a bargain in 2013. With keepers, you’re trying to get the biggest bargain possible – a 4th round pick for a 1st rounder has some nice value (about $15). I think most keeper team owners want that monster bargain (20th pick playing like a 1st rounder) but they are few and far between. A relative success like Eric Hosmer is probably a $15 player (middle rounds) this year and would’ve cost $1 (late rounds). More likely, you’ve wasted a late round pick (and bench slot) on a guy who doesn’t play for 2-3 months, performs so-so at best, and you could’ve drafted in a similar spot next year.

  10. Wake Up says:
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    Since we are aware of the Braun situation before the draft, and not during the season, his replacement would not necessarily have to be that bad, if you drafted accordingly. When Braun returns, if your 5th OF is still performing, you could always plug him into a Util spot, if you were not able to trade them.

    • @Wake Up, In that case, you are playing someone worthy of your UTIL as OF and then a replacement player at UTIL. Same difference. It’s certainly possible that you end up drafting a valuable player to fill in for Braun (aka my lottery ticket scenario). But now you’re stuck with only going for OF bargains when maybe that bargain was a 1B.

      • Wake Up says:
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        @Rudy Gamble, Yeah, Braun is going too early to touch him anyway.

        Who would you keep? Choose one from Morse, Heyward and Choo. Thanks.

        • @Wake Up, Hmm, tough call. I’d lean towards Heyward b/c of youth. I think Choo is best bet for 2012.

          • Wake Up says:
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            @Rudy Gamble, Thanks. I’m leaning that way too. What are your thoughts on Morse? Flash in the pan? Any projections?

  11. mauledbypandas says:
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    I think if I had an IR league I might take a flier on Braun at 70ish, otherwise I would be happy to let someone else deal with him. Good to see you back, Mr. Gamble

    • @mauledbypandas, Thanks. Yeah, I like having bench flexibility so I’d only take Braun at a bargain. A 10 pick bargain sounds pretty good. Based on the current ADPs, seems like a pipe dream, though.

  12. theevilempire says:
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    Do Brauns projected stats factor in the absence of steroids?

    I’m staying far away this year unless he drops impossibly low in the draft.

    Welcome back Rudy!

    • @theevilempire, Thanks. I don’t think the PEDs, or even no Prince, will have a major impact on Braun’s stats. R/RBI would seem to be the most impacted (by Prince’s departure) but they vary so much anyway. Look at Prince Fielder’s RBI the last 4 years: 102, 140, 83, 120. And the 83 year was when Rickie Weeks managed 160 games while the 140 RBI year Weeks played 37.

      • Disco says:
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        @Rudy Gamble, All that tells us is that Rickie Weeks sucks!

  13. Will says:
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    Rudy,

    I am in a 10 team league with 5 keepers. Here are my 4 so far, Fielder, Cano, Cargo, and Reyes. Who should I take with my 5th pick, Zimmerman, Bruce, or Cruz?

    • @Will, I’d take Jay Bruce.

  14. Yep, I said it! says:
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    Very interesting take on Braun, including comments on daily H2H formats.

    On another topic, does a player in each of these two groups jump out to you as significantly more valuable this year than the others? For the hitters, I am mostly concerned about playing time. For the hitters, which one do you think will take a step forward and put a whole year’s worth of stats together in 2012? Thanks so much!

    Group 1. Heisey, Cain, Rajai
    Group 2. Humber, Tomlin, Moscoso

    • Yep, I said it! says:
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      typo: 2nd para, 3rd line, “hitters” should be “pitchers.” Oops.

    • @Yep, I said it!, I think Cain will get the most playing time of the three and ends up being most valuable. All three of those pitchers are meat – Humber and Moscoso can’t K guys and they play in small stadiums (CWS and COL, respectively). So I guess I’d go with Tomlin.

  15. anthony says:
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    @Grey: who Is more valuable fantasy wise Dee Gordon or Derek Jeter ???

    • @anthony, Haven’t finished my 2012 Rankings/Point Shares yet (should be in a week) but I’d say Gordon b/c of the speed and a better bet to stay healthy.

  16. royce! says:
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    I expect that he and Manny will spend a lot of time together as they serve their suspensions. Have you considered the impact hanging out with Manny will have on his work ethic?

    • @royce!, Manny who? Manny Schewitz?

      • royce! says:
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        @Rudy Gamble, Ha! Was thinking Ramirez, but Schewitz could be worse… 50 days with Schewitz could really take him from mensch to schmendrick.

  17. Ed Nugent says:
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    I’ve been waiting for a post like this for the majority of the offseason. Thanks for crunching the numbers, Rudy!

    I’m in a 12 team 5×5 10 keeper league with no penalty for keeping players. As soon as Braun was found out for PED’s, he became available in my league and I threw the farm (Cruz and about 5 picks in the upcoming draft) at the owner who had him, my thought process being that players of his caliber don’t come on the market too frequently. I overpaid for Braun for this season, no doubt, but I feel like my trade was solid for the future as I can keep him on my team scott free. What do you think of the move?

    • @Ed Nugent, Good long-term buy.

  18. Cheeeeeeze says:
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    I just want to point out that people in H2H leagues could gain a bit more from braun since the playoffs are so valuable down the stretch and you’re working with weekly matchups… If I could make due with another guy for the first 50 games and just be an average contender, and then put Braun in my lineup, I’d have a big advantage in every weekly matchup there after. What this comes down to is that getting all my points loaded into the last 2/3’s of the season is more valuable to a weekly league then having those points spread through the couse of the season…. any idea on how to add that to the equation?

    • @Cheeeeeeze, I think it’s the same impact (H2H vs. Roto) for regular season. You still have replacement value for 1/3 of the season. I think the playoffs tend to be mostly luck/hot pitching so I wouldn’t really change his value much more than a couple of picks.

  19. Eddy says:
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    @Rudy

    I’ll present this team to Grey, but I value your opinion because I know both of you tend to have different views.

    Background: THis is for my 12-team H2H OBP league. It’s a keeper where we keep five. We traded picks last year so rounds are skewed. From rounds 8-12 I pick once and it’s already confined to a keeper. I went through Yahoo’s ADP and looked at my exact draft pick positions and constructed a mock team. Will I get everyone on it? Probably not. A lot hinges on whether or not I land Braun in the fourth.

    C-Devin Mesoraco
    1B-Joey Votto
    2B-Danny Espinosa
    SS-Dee Gordon
    3B-David Wright
    OF-Carlos Gonzalez
    OF-Jacoby Ellsbury
    OF- Jose Tabata
    Util- Adam Dunn
    Util-Mark Trumbo
    BN-Ryan Braun
    BN-Brandon Belt

    SP-Clayton Kershaw
    SP-Stephen Strasburg
    SP-Mat Latos
    SP-Ubaldo Jimenez
    SP-Mike Minor
    SP-Chris Sale
    SP-Roy Oswalt

    RP-Jason Motte
    RP-Kyle Farnsworth
    RP-Matt Capps
    RP-Matt Thornton

    • @Eddy, So I assume you’re thinking Votto and Ellsbury in first two rounds w/ CarGo and Kershaw available in rounds 3 and 4? Might be a reach there but possible. Pretty brutal bullpen. I could see you down to one closer by May (motte is safest). I also think you are too focused on SB in your offense considering it is H2H. SBs come in bunches (bad catchers, good player health, confidence) which is rewarded in Roto but not H2H. I’d ditch either Gordon or Tabata and possibly both for more power.

      • Eddy says:
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        @Rudy Gamble,

        I’m keeping Votto, CarGo, Ellsbury, Kershaw and Stras. So no worries about them not being there.

        OK, I went back and tweaked it.

        My new RP would be Huston Street, Motte, Farnsworth and Capps.

        It’s tough deciding who to cut between Capps and Thornton. Though I like Thornton’s stuff more, Addison Reed will most definitely have a shot eventually. Capps replacement’s are very blah.

        I substituted Dee Gordon’s draft spot for Lind and Tabata’s for Zack Cozart.

        How would that play up? Does Dunn become, er, ReDunndent?

      • Eddy says:
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        @Rudy Gamble, Sorry. The subtractions are Trumbo, Dee Gordon and Thornton. The additions are Lind, Street and Cozart.

        Tabata is still there.

        Would you leave Trumbo and remove Tabata? My only worries is that my team is becoming an OBP drag. Tabata’s .340ish compared to Trumbo’s .300-.310 is pretty big.

  20. TheNewGuy says:
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    In an auction keeper league where we use the rules keep 1yr contract (+$3), 2yrs (+$6) and 3yrs (+$8). What would be your dollar limit on drafting Braun? Im thinking if I can get him around $18 he’ll be a nice keeper, but I think others will catch onto that fact.

    • @TheNewGuy, I think I’d go up to $21 for him. Tough to sacrifice this year for future years w/o getting a nice discount for your troubles.

  21. Wilsonian says:
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    Rudy, well done article. Although my unintelligent brain got lost somewhere in there. HA! I do think it all comes down to your league. You know you’re going to be in a league where everyone is scared to death of him, and if he falls far enough, snag him. Then you also know you’re going to be in a league where someone is going to reach for him in the 3rd. I’m only in keeper leagues, so I’m kind of curious to see if anyone is going to keep him.

    I do have a keeper question for you in two leagues:

    1) I can keep Fielder, Longo, Kemp, Upton, Tulo. Would you stick with those 5 or would you drop one of them for Verlander, Lincecum, Stras, or Hamels? I’m going “no” and intend on sticking with the bats, but would still like your opinion.

    2) In a pretty deep 16 team league, I have these guys: Tulo, Stanton, Lawrie, Espinosa, Moustakas, Napoli, Konerko, Kennedy, Lester, Kimbrel, Gio. I can keep 5.

    Right now I’m obviously keeping Tulo and Stanton. Grey said go with Lawrie, Lester and either Kennedy or Moose for the final 3.

    What’s your take?

    Much appreciated!

    • Wilsonian says:
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      @Wilsonian, I forgot in the 16 team league I could also keep LoMo.

    • @Wilsonian, thanks. yes, only takes one owner to pick him early. takes all owners to let him sit out there. those are some massive keepers. i’d definitely keep Verlander….i’d keep him over Fielder (more depth at 1B). I’d keep Tulo, Stanton, Lawrie, Kimbrel, Lester.

      • Wilsonian says:
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        @Rudy Gamble, thanks for the reply! Man, now you’ve got me in a pickle. I’ve been debating this back and forth for awhile, but figured there would be more depth at SP and it would be wiser to keep the bats, then stock up on pitching early.

        Both of these are H2H leagues. The one with those monster keepers is an 8 Team league, FYI, so that is part of my reasoning for not keeping pitching. I could probably get some great arms early. I’m 8th and 9th pick (won the league last year).

        I like your thought on keeping Kimbrel. I’d been debating that anyway. He’s set up to be the best in the game, but I hate keeping closers. Do you still see that as a good idea knowing it is H2H?

        Thanks! I really appreciate it!

        • @Wilsonian, Ah, for H2H, i’d ditch Kimbrel in favor of Moustakas

  22. mauledbypandas says:
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    on a related note… how the heck did I end up with 4 fantasy baseball teams? This should be interesting.

  23. Pugsly says:
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    The flaw I see in the Braun + Replacement OF stats you came up with was that you picked a number of OFs who didn’t play 162 games. In the end the replacement stats you gave to add to Braun were only 136 at bats in 50 games. Any active manager is going to get a lot more at bats per game than that. And if you’re a good manager, you’re going to get replacement level stats that are better than schmohawks like Nyjer Morgan and Will Venable.

    The way I look it at is that Hunter Pence went 22 HR/8 SB in a full season. Braun will do better than that in 100 games. So I’ll be drafting him in the 4th or 5th round, because I believe in my ability to pluck a Matt Joyce type off the wire for two months and bide my time until Braun comes back. If you’re cocky, Braun is the way to go. Ha.

    • @Pugsly, in a 12-team league, we’re talking about the 60th best OF being your replacement OF. there are 90 starting OFs in the major leagues but the bottom third are likely platooning to some degree. So I don’t think you can assume you’ll get many more ABs than a pro-rated 450 ABs. If you’re able to get a hot OF like Joyce, then you’re golden. But my projection assumes that you aren’t going to be lucky enough to snag the hot OF in your draft. You may end up with a below replacement OF performance for a month as you rotate in someone hoping to find your Matt Joyce. So if you’re cocky you can find this year’s Matt Joyce, then go earlier on Braun. Just not my recommendation.

  24. frank rizzo says:
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    I’m assuming a 10 team league would mean Braun would be a solid 5th rounder, maybe even earlier, correct Rudy? With less OF’s being chosen and the WW pool being deeper, it’s not as difficult to get by the first 1/3rd of the season, then add elite production the rest of the way. Would even the 4th round in a ten team league make sense?

    • @frank rizzo, the replacement value OF is better in 10 team and i don’t think the bench spot will be that much more valuable (though i’d like to stock it with closer prospects in the early weeks). Maybe late 4th round would make sense for Braun.

  25. BumbleBeeTuna says:
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    Is there going to be a 2012 War Room sheet this year? If so, when?!?!

    • BookieBob says:
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      @BumbleBeeTuna, In the Forums, (which I highly recommend!), Grey said the War Room would be available on Monday.

  26. Abe says:
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    Hey Rudy,
    good analysis. i’m debating between some keepers right now and i was hoping you could provide some insight. I’m in a 12 team league roto league with OPS and K/BB. I can only keep 3 of the following (auction with $260 budget):
    Desmond Jennings – $2
    Jordan Zimmermann – $2
    Craig Kimbrel – $6
    Ian Kinsler – $16
    Cole Hamels – $16
    Mike Stanton – $20

    Thanks

    • @Abe, I like Hamels, Jennings, and Kinsler. Zimmermann would be #4.

  27. PutSomeDanksOnIt! says:
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    I took Braun in every H2H draft I could. Got him around the 5th or 6th round each time. Didn’t feel like I was reaching, because in H2H he should pay big dividends come playoff time. I’ll take the 50 game hit and cover the spot with lower tier guys until he returns. It is a gamble, and a little mind-blowing considering Braun was usually gone by pick #6-7 in last year’s drafts.

    • @PutSomeDanksOnIt!, 5th/6th round was solid value. And, as others have noted, he has a little more value in H2H b/c of playoffs. Nice job.

  28. Eddy says:
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    RUdy, here is the “new and improved” mock from earlier. Didn’t catch your comments.

    I removed Thornton, Trumbo and Dee Gordon.
    I added Lind, Cozart and Street.

    Do you think Tabata is still too much speed and should leave Trumbo?

    C-Devin Mesoraco
    1B-Joey Votto
    2B-Danny Espinosa
    SS-Zack Cozart
    3B-David Wright
    OF-Carlos Gonzalez
    OF-Jacoby Ellsbury
    OF- Jose Tabata
    Util- Adam Dunn
    Util-Adam Lind
    BN-Ryan Braun
    BN-Brandon Belt

    SP-Clayton Kershaw
    SP-Stephen Strasburg
    SP-Mat Latos
    SP-Ubaldo Jimenez
    SP-Mike Minor
    SP-Chris Sale
    SP-Roy Oswalt

    RP-Jason Motte
    RP-Kyle Farnsworth
    RP-Matt Capps
    RP-Huston Street

    • @Eddy, No on Trumbo – he’s undraftable in 10/12 team given playing time concerns. Tabata is fine if you’re going to swap out Gordon.

      • Eddy says:
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        @Rudy Gamble, Thanks! I feel pretty comfortable with this team then. Hopefully I land the majority of these players in the real draft.

  29. Jake says:
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    Keeper question. 15 team 2 C/5 OF/9 P league, 5×5 roto. Players can be kept up to 3 years (w/ a certain draft pick lost in return). Keepers can be “cut” at the end of each year.

    Pick 2 of the following:

    Santana (lose 4th rd pick this year, option of 3rd rd next year, etc)
    Cuddyer (14th, …)
    Haren (5th, …)
    Dan Hudson (10th, …)
    Motte (18th, ….)

    Thanks!

    • @Jake, Hudson and Motte. Other guys are too close (if not exceeding) their value.

  30. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    I’ve been clipping individual letters from magazines… creating a death threat to be sent to Razzball HQ… demanding to see your afro on the site RFN. Thank goodness we avoided that. Welcome back!

    Love the analysis and looking forward to more of it (especially your Point Shares). Hope fatherhood is keeping you happy and busy.

    • @Awesomus Maximus, Thanks man. Yeah, the afro is alive and well. As is the wife and baby (which is prob more important). Hope all’s well! And Point Shares should be up next week!

  31. WallyCleaver says:
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    The more I look at him Drew Stubbs kinda stinks. How is he better than several other 35-40 sb guys? Is it worth a few extra homers to have such a drag on average/obp?

    • @WallyCleaver, There’s no reason someone with a 30% K rate and middling power (15 HRs in nearly 700 PAs last year) should get significant playing time. But Dusty is the coach so throw that logic out the window.

  32. Mel says:
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    Braun will be cleared, and won’t serve 50 games.
    A girl (with Braun in a keeper league) can dream….

  33. nyydj2 says:
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    ESPN Mocks Are Open….Yay

  34. Josh says:
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    Keeper question here: I’ve currently got Miggy, Kemp, AGon, and Moore as my 4 keepers. I’ve got an offer for Kemp of another guys 4-5-12th round picks which would also free up my 2nd and let me keep Alex Gordon/Morse/Trout/Pineda for a 25th round pick instead. Do the deal or keep the stud?

  35. MH says:
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    First I’d like to say excellent article, Rudy. Second, I probably won’t be drafting Braun unless he’s a bargain. I endorse your sentiment that missing a bargain is less damaging that reaching for a risk. Thus, I doubt Braun will be on many of my teams.

    However, to play a bit of Devil’s Advocate, there is a side of the replacement level question I think gets missed here (and perhaps too frequently). We all think of streaming in terms of pitchers, but streaming hitters is a perfectly viable way of securing results better than replacement level from replacement level players. Of course, this works much more effectively in leagues with daily roster changes, but can work to a lesser degree in weekly leagues as well with appropriate planning. Focusing on daily leagues, though, if you’re willing to accept that additional roster spot won’t be committed to a single player, all of a sudden platoon players–even weak-side platoon players–become viable options. Last year I found myself in a situation where I felt streaming hitters for part of the year was a good option, and I wound up getting very respectable results out of sub-schmohawks like Juan Rivera and Jerry Sands vs. weak lefties and Eric Hinske, Brennan Boesch, and David DeJesus vs. weak righties. This requires a very high level of daily involvement, but it could very well allow you to assume you’ll get results superior to replacement level until Braun is back in action. You can even look at speed guys vs. a poor defensive catcher, or guys with moderate power against fly ball pitchers in small ballparks. Research, planning, and creativity can reward with results much better than simply taking a shot that a lesser player an maintain a two-month streak.

    This strategy does have a downside though–it requires you to concede any kind of long term potential opportunity value from a second bench spot (however, if you’re streaming to replace an injured stud who you can stash on the DL, this issue is significantly diminished, but that’s another discussion). With at least five bench spots, this problem isn’t huge, since that extra hitter won’t be necessary every day, so on days where you like the matchups from your regular active outfielders, you can use that spot for greater flexibility (such as streaming an SP with a good matchup or a setup RP if his closer has pitched on a number of consecutive days or even nabbing a top prospect preemptively if there’s some buzz he may get called up soon), but it still kills most of your chances of securing any long term value with that spot off the wire.

    • chata says:
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      @MH,
      nice .

  36. PFR says:
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    Hi Rudy – is there any way to view the end of year 2011 player rater with auction values? I remember you posted it after 2010 and I found it very useful in evaluating the likelihood a player would reach their 2011 auction $ projections. Thanks.

  37. PFR says:
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    Hi Rudy – is there any way to view the end of year 2011 player rater with auction values? I remember you posted it after 2010 and I found it very useful in evaluating the likelihood a player would reach their 2011 auction $ projections. Thanks.

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