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Maybe I’m paranoid, but we have to be masters of reality and understand that he won’t be able to continue this wizard-like production. I’m not exactly trying to declare war on Yasiel Puig, but, like any new found glory, it’s all downhill from here. Don’t make me choose my friends over you, Yasiel! He’s truly been a fantasy baseball catalyst, but he has a very low walk rate and his strikeout rate is rising to worrisome levels. He will continue to be hit or miss, although I unfortunately see him missing much more often. Let’s address the giant Sandoval in the room: his .472 BABIP is preparing him for a head on collision. Another factor is that his hip injury has shown that he’s no iron man. I’ll temper expectations a bit by saying that a certain player had a comparable 1.105 OPS last June, only to fall to mediocrity afterwards. Shout out to whoever names that player first. I think Puig will be closer to Mark Trumbo going forward, which isn’t bad, but isn’t anywhere near what he’s been this year. On a different note, Terse and I will be doing a Reddit AMA tonight at 7pm EST. Y’all should stop by. Anyway, here are some other guys who are putting up somewhat surprising seasons:

David Ortiz – I’ve mentioned him over and over again, but he deserves to be mentioned here. His performance shouldn’t be a surprise, as he is literally a man among boys. Before this season, I said, “I’m not going to project a 1.000 OPS because I wouldn’t do that for anybody, but there’s no reason for me to believe that he can’t top a .900 OPS. That’s extremely valuable in any league… For 2013, I’ll give him an indulgent .290/.390/.530 line.” He’s managed to exceed that high expectation with his current .317/.402/.606 line! Although, if you think that he won’t be able to maintain that, I’d point to his .318/.415/.611 line last season. The only concern I have is a potential injury, but if he stays healthy, there’s no reason why he can’t continue to crush.

Raul Ibanez – Imagine if he gets traded to a more hitter-friendly ballpark. He’s striking out more, but has a higher home run to fly ball rate. I think he’ll be a slightly lesser version of his first half, but he should still be very productive when healthy.

Mike Trout – How many people thought he wouldn’t repeat? After he stumbled a bit in April, I ranted, “His slow start doesn’t have me worried at all and I fully expect him to post similar numbers to last year. I kept hearing the “fact” that he would regress, but I don’t think that’s a given. Regression is never inevitable. Most of the arguments I’ve heard about why he will regress could be turned around the other way. For example, if you are worried that pitchers are going to better adjust to him, then you could also be excited because he could better adjust to pitchers. I’ll end this mini-rant by saying that you should give your studs the benefit of the doubt for the first month.” He’s roughly produced the same line as last year and I expect him to continue business as usual.

Pedro Alvarez – The main surprise is that he’s finally meeting his power potential. I was a big fan of Pedro from Pittsburgh earlier in the year and said to buy him since he was available in a lot of leagues after his horrifically slow start. I fully expect something similar to his current .250/.311/.516 line in the second half, but can’t guarantee that it won’t come without an ice cold streak. Strangely, as I sit here in the heat, that sounds like a welcome change. You’re too hot to handle, Pedro!

Michael Cuddyer – His year really has me puzzled. All of the underlying numbers look awfully similar to last year’s .806 OPS, despite posting a .960 OPS this season. I’m going to use my very scientific method and split the difference to project roughly a .290/.350/.530 line for the rest of 2013.

Josh Donaldson – Josh is my homie, yo! I covered him extensively a couple months ago. To summarize, I’m a fan and thought he’d produce a .270/.350/.460 the rest of the way, though he’s stubbornly exceeded it. I’m still sticking with my projection for the rest of 2013.

Matt Carpenter – I didn’t think he’d be this good, but after posting a .294/.365/.463 line last year and drastically reducing his strikeouts, his current .891 OPS doesn’t look too far-fetched.

Jason Kipnis – I’ll admit that I didn’t believe in him. I don’t know why, but I still don’t trust him. Like Cuddyer, I think Kipnis is going to be somewhere in between his numbers from last year and this year. End of story.

Tom Jacks is sporadically on Twitter @votetomjacks

From Around The Web

  1. AJ says:
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    What side you like best Pence/Hardy/Eaton or Ellsbury/Hill?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @AJ: It’s close, but Ellsbury/Hill. I like Hill quite a bit more than Hardy.

  2. Clint says:
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    Despite not owning him I think I’ll be sad when Puig finally comes back to the world of reality stats-wise because we’ll miss out on the blog titles left with him leading them:

    “Here Puiggy, Puiggy” (Fantasy Deliverance to a title)
    “When Puigs Fly” (big ups Geico)
    “Bay of Puigs” (Because Berman, the Bucs, and Packahs never gets old)
    “Squealin’ Like A Puig” (you can’t really get enough Deliverance, can you?)
    “Puigs…In…Spaaaaaacccccce” (Muppets never die, they just need stitches)
    “This Little Puiggy Went Yard” (another Puiggy ran home)
    “Lipstick On A Puig” (is it still a Puig?)
    “Puigs In A Blanket” (mmmmm, tasty vittles)
    “Puig In The City” (he misses his mom)
    “Angry Byrds And Puigs” (why ARE those puigs always green?)
    “My Friends Puiglet And Shin Choo-Choo” (for the 1% who have them both on their team)
    “Porky Puig” (when his fantasy value starts developing a stutter)
    “Puiggy Banks” (when to break it & cash out on him)
    “Peppa Puig” (for the 10% of the parental fantasy audience that knows this reference)
    “Franchise Puigs” (in honor of JJ Abrams)
    “Puig In A Poke” (for the Griswold fans amongst us so we can smoke them out)

    Annnnd I’m……..spent.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Clint: Bravo! And agreed.

  3. Tom Jacks

    Tom Jacks says:
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    Hey all – Terse and I will be doing a Reddit AMA fantasy baseball chat at 7pm EST tonight here: http://redd.it/1if7b6

  4. jro says:
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    I would consider Dunn for this list but his first 30-45 days were completely dismal. Since June when he was hitting 157, he is hitting 285 with 12 hrs and 32 RBI in 38 games!

    Article aside do you think this is a flax in the pan or can he get back to hitting 250 as he did sporadically over last few years?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @jro: Good point on Dunn. Unfortunately, I feel that another prolonged cold streak is more likely than another prolonged hot streak, but he is capable of either. I’d generally avoid using him in leagues where batting average is an important consideration.

  5. Terse

    Terse says:
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    that New Found Glory reference rocked. I’m now listening to them.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Terse: Haha nice! I don’t know how I switched from Black Sabbath to them, but hey, anything can happen. Just ask Cespedes…

  6. Doc Ellis D's says:
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    Lets assume Matt Adams were to gain a starting role due to injury….

    Would you prefer Adams or LoMo ROS?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Doc Ellis D’s: That’s a good question and I’m a bit surprised how easy it was for me to decide that I’d rather have Adams.

      • Tom Jacks

        Tom Jacks says:
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        @Tom Jacks: I’ll add that that has as much to do with Matt’s upside as tempered expectations for Logan.

  7. Mike says:
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    Would Matt Kemp be the player you’re referring to last season?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Mike: No, good guess. He played for a different team in that division though…

      • Mike says:
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        @Tom Jacks: Trying to think who everyone was buying up from a fast start early last season. NL West helps big time. Melky?

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
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          @Mike: No, he was on the Rockies (and still is, but mostly on the bench).

            • Tom Jacks

              Tom Jacks says:
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              @Eddie: No, but that’s another guy who has fallen off a cliff lately.

  8. stumanji says:
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    12 tm roto, keep 6 guys. I’m out of contention so I dealt Phillips, Cespedes, Bumgarner, and Kenley for Cano and Verlander. Pretty pumped unless Verlander pulls a Halladay next year. My 6 keeps now look like Felix, Verlander, Trout, Cano, Bruce, and TBD. Trying to acquire Posey for a package of non-keepers. How’d I do?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @stumanji: Pretty well. Honestly, in a keep 6 league, I would have traded those four guys for Cano alone if I was out of contention. Verlander makes the trade a steal. Posey would only make things better…

  9. Bryan says:
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    Traded Cespedes and Jeter for Tulo…Yay or Nay?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Bryan: I like it. That’s a good price on Tulo and a nice gamble.

  10. JoeG says:
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    Lookin for some more input on my team, please rate this offence the ros:
    13 Deep mixed daily 6×6 roto.
    C Wilin Rosario
    1B Eric Hosmer, KC 1B
    2B Nick Franklin, Sea SS, 2B
    3B Todd Frazier, Cin 3B, 1B
    SS Jose Reyes, Tor SS
    2B/SS Brad Miller, Sea SS
    1B/3B Freddie Freeman, Atl 1B
    OF Jay Bruce, Cin OF
    OF Starling Marte, Pit OF
    OF Jason Heyward, Atl OF
    OF Torii Hunter, Det OF
    UTIL Ryan Braun, Mil OF
    UTIL Luke Scott, TB DH

    Bench David Freese, StL 3B
    Bench Brandon Moss, Oak 1B, OF
    Bench Darin Ruf, Phi OF
    Bench M. Montero, C
    Thank You.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @JoeG: Wow, you’ve had some bad luck with Braun, Heyward, Hosmer, etc. The good news is I expect your offense to be better going forward. I think those three will improve and you won’t see much decline elsewhere.

      I like having Moss and Montero on the bench too. I doubt there’s much on waivers in a 13 teamer, but if you can find any decent OFs, then I’d try to trade one of your current ones to upgrade one of your first or third basemen.

      • JoeG414 says:
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        @Tom Jacks: Thanks for the feedback. I just traded for Hunter ,Heyward and Rosario to add some more pop. I do feel if they improve and play like they should . They will give me what I need.

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
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          @JoeG414: That sounds like a good plan.

  11. Bubba says:
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    Brett Gardner or Eric Young Jr. going forward?

    I see BG as a one category guy…(runs)…with some steals (less than what’s been expected and I don’t see that changing) and limited avg. upside due to his strikeouts…his unexpected HRs have inflated his fantasy value and that will come to an end.

    EYJ…he seems like a solid two or three category guy…runs and steals for sure…and his average has upside.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Bubba: I like Gardner more overall, but EYJ should have a clear steals advantage, so that depends on needs I suppose. I agree the home run thing may be overestimated, but he should still have a couple more than EYJ.

  12. Nathan says:
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    Carlos Gonzalez. Wow, I didn’t realize his post-ASB stats last year were so pedestrian!

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Nathan: It wasn’t him, but you’re right that he really fell off in the 2nd half.

  13. The Prince of Soul Glo says:
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    Simple enough: Do you prefer Matt Holliday or Ryan Braun for the rest of the season?

  14. Clive says:
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    I’m in a 10 team keeper. Should I trade my Puig (Rd 22 keeper next year) and my M Harvey (Rd 9 keeper) for Trout (Rd 20 keeper)?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Clive: Yes. That seems like an insanely awesome price for Trout.

  15. Puig-stradamus says:
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    You can all laugh now, but I think Puig wins the NL MVP. Dodgers win the NL West and go deep into the playoffs.

    And if I’m wrong.. then you win BABIP/baseball gods…

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Puig-stradamus: If you’re right, we will all die from an overdose of Puig puns. I feel like Puig vs. the BABIP god was a hidden match in mortal kombat.

  16. Scottie O. says:
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    ROS who do you like more:

    the upside of Erasmo Ramirez
    or
    the steady-er Tommy Milone

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Scottie O.: I prefer Milone, but in a shallow league I’d gamble on the upside of Ramirez since Milone isn’t much better than replacement level on waivers.

  17. nathan says:
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    hi someone offered me Ellsbury for my verlander,… i don’t think its enough, what do you think?

    • RandomItalicizedVoice says:
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      @nathan:

      If I needed steals and average even a little, I’d make that trade without thinking twice, myself.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @nathan: I agree with RandomItalicizedVoice. It’s a fair deal, but if you think you can get more, then go for it. Ellsbury is a rare player that can get you a ton of steals without hurting you elsewhere. If you don’t need steals, then I guess it’s not enough.

  18. Birdog says:
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    I’m wondering how Big Papi’s name isn’t on that BioGenesis list. I’m not wondering too hard, tho, since he’s kicking ass for me this year…

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Birdog: Haha true. If he isn’t taking performance enhancing drugs, then every baseball player in the world should feel humiliated.

  19. Birdog says:
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    I agree.

  20. Ron says:
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    I traded Harvey for price. Thoughts?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Ron: I agree with Birddog that it’s a fair deal.

  21. Birdog says:
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    I like it if you’re in a head to head league for sure. Price should be more valuable come playoff time due to the uncertainty around Harvey’s probable innings limit.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Birdog: I appreciate you chiming in.

  22. ron says:
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    someone ran this trade in our league and i wanted to see what you thought. gardner and segura for dominic brown and pedroia. thoughts? fair?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @ron: I bet there was an uproar because people thought the Brown/Pedroia side was a steal. I’m not a big fan of Brown, so I think it’s closer, but I’d still rather have the Pedroia side.

  23. Birdog says:
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    Looks very fair, IMO.

  24. Fish says:
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    H2H yahoo + OPS + Hits, who you like ROS

    Big Papi or Marte?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Fish: Marte’s good, but Papi since he’s showing no signs of slowing down.

  25. Eric says:
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    What are your Puig projections for the remainder of the year?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Eric: Rest of season I think he’ll hover around an .800 OPS. Maybe a good batting average, but a low OBP. Basically what Trumbo has been this year with a better batting average.

  26. Alky Sobrera says:
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    Tyler Colvin. Didn’t get it until the Rockies hint.

    • Alky Sobrera says:
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      @Alky Sobrera:

      Haven’t confirmed it yet, but with rut out, I’m at a loss for who else it could even be.

        • Alky Sobrera says:
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          @serch:

          Nah, he plays everyday at 1b, and I don’t think he’s OPS’ed that high in a while.

        • Tom Jacks

          Tom Jacks says:
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          @serch: Alky got it with Colvin. Thanks for the guess though.

  27. Steve says:
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    tyler colvin

    • Steve says:
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      forgot about him… probably right

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Steve: Yes sir!

  28. Sick McNasty says:
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    Dexter Fowler

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Sick McNasty: It was Colvin, but good guess. Fowler can be streaky.

  29. Steve D. says:
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    Speaking of Trumbo, should I look to sell high? I held him at the break last year and completely fell apart on me, to the point where I dropped him and no one touched him.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Steve D.: I don’t think he’s much of a sell high compared to last year when he had a .900+ OPS at this point. I think he will produce roughly what he has this year going forward. Last year he had roughly the same production, it was just front-loaded. I don’t think he’ll necessarily collapse this year.

      Although, if somebody is willing to pay fair value (or more), I wouldn’t hesitate to trade him.

  30. Bitchesbeshoppach says:
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    ROS – erasmo, archer, or cole? Actually I just noticed ogando is available. Go ogando?

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Bitchesbeshoppach: I like Cole, so I’ll say him, but Ogando is a close second (he’d be first if I was 100% positive of him pitching like we expect).

  31. Mike says:
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    Segura or Reyes ROS ??
    Thx

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Mike: Reyes

  32. Mike says:
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    Would u trade Dominic brown and Rafael Soriano for either Reyes or segura?
    Need MI help….or is that too much

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Mike: Yes, I would do that for Reyes. It’s closer for Segura, but I’d do that if I really needed an MI as you say.

  33. Mike says:
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    I feel great about flipping Puig for Gio and Bartolo a few weeks ago.

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @Mike: That’s a great deal. I’d trade him straight up for Gio, so throwing in Bartolo makes it a very easy decision for me.

  34. MB says:
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    I offered braun for stanton in keeper league. Was countered with my cano for his stanton. Would you take segura AND stanton for your cano if the best you could finish is 2nd and would only keep stanton?

    7×7 with obp and slg

    • Tom Jacks

      Tom Jacks says:
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      @MB: Yes, I would rather have Stanton than Cano in a keeper league, assuming there’s no other factors like price, but It’s really close. I’d much rather have Stanton than Braun though, so maybe you can try offering Braun + a smaller piece first?

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