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So I go out with this girl the other day on a date.  I’m Grey, and I’m playing the field!  I take her to this pizza place.  It wasn’t particularly fancy, but they had good reviews and oil on the table for bread dipping, so it wasn’t Round Table either.  Any the hoo, the pizza comes and she asks for Parmesan cheese.  Only she doesn’t call it Parmesan cheese.  She calls it “the sprinkle cheese.”  Now this is either showing a lack of sophistication or being cute, depending on how expensive the pizza is that you’re ultimately paying for or how horny you are.  This is the crux of these keeper posts.  Whether a guy is a keeper depends on the price of the pizza and how horny you are (maybe less the latter part).  If you have Eric Hosmer for $77 in a 15 team league, that’s too much.  But most of you should have Hosmer for cheap, so voilà — he’s here.  Here, indeed, he arrived in a big way, says Yoda.  Last year in three-quarters of a season, he had a line of 66/19/78/.293/11.  That was 128 games, if some of youse don’t know your three-quarterses.  (Three-quarteri?  Three-quartereaux?  Whatever.)  His line looks downright Joey Votto-ish (Votto-ey?  Okay, I’ll stop).  Will this continue for Eric Hosmer in 2012 fantasy baseball or will he be told, “You, sir, are no Sweet Genius!” (<–best/worst show ever)

The 11 steals look high even though it wasn’t a full season.  Everyone on the Royals stole a lot of bases last year.  I mean, c’mon, Frenchy stole 22 bases.  “Hey, how come there’s only green M & M’s in this bowl?”  That’s a Royals player in the locker room.  Can Hosmer steal more than 11 bases?  Sure.  Just like Votto stole more than 11 bases last year.  Sike!  Votto only stole 8 bases last year.  I fooled you bad!  Seriously, I made you look silly.  When players steal between 7 and 12 bases a year, they’re not really base stealers and can easily only steal 5-7 bases.  That still makes Hosmer more valuable than the average 1st baseman, since they usually don’t give you much in the way of speed.  His batting average last year at .293 looks more than doable.  I wouldn’t be surprised to even see him hit twenty points higher with some luck.  I wouldn’t expect that though.  His K-rate was a bit high and his walk rate a bit low.  Remember a large part of his average was driven by a huge September when he hit .349.  His month of May last year looks the most relevant.  In 99 ABs, a .283 average with a .295 BABIP.  I’d go on the conservative side for average just to play it safe — say .280.  Finally, the power.  He was pretty consistent with power.  He hit 4 or 5 homers in every month, except June when he just slumped all around.  Since he just turned 22 years old, his power is not going to be all the way there yet.  In time, he should be a 30 homer guy.  Next year, I’d hope for 24 homers and expect 22, but as previously mentioned on the aforementioned tip, he’s not going to kill you anywhere and will be in the heart of the Royals lineup.  Let’s say 80/23/95/.280/10.  That makes him a definite keeper.  Now please pass the sprinkle cheese!

45 Responses

  1. chata says:
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    five year contract … can only keep one :
    hosmer or freeman ?

  2. Tony says:
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    whats the NOV. prediction on the round he’ll go in for a 12 teamer?

  3. El Famous Burrito says:
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    Sooooo….cute or unsophisticated?

  4. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    If someone posts asking whether they should keep Wilson Ramos or not, will you feel obligated to report it to the authorities?

  5. Jared says:
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    Do you like Hosmer over Brett Lawrie as a keeper? I could grab either in their ADP round + 1.

  6. Jake says:
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    @Awesomus Maximus:

    I laughed…..but then I felt bad about it.

  7. Jay says:
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    @Awesomus Maximus: Oh man that is cold… and hilarious.

  8. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @El Famous Burrito: Oh,. sorry, just woke up. You mean, how did I take the sprinkle cheese? Yeah, I ignored it for the latter reason.

  9. daniel says:
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    thanks for the great info grey. how are you feeling about heywards chances of bouncing back next season? and what kind of numbers are you expecting from him?

  10. daniel says:
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    also how do you feel about rasmus bouncing back next season?

  11. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @daniel: I expect big things from both of them. More so from Heyward, though there’s a decent amount of people who don’t share my optimism.

  12. peter says:
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    Grey plays the field! But when it’s his turn to bat, I wonder if he’s patient at the plate or if he’s more of a Mini-Donkey. Cust Kayin’…

  13. daniel says:
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    ok cool. do you think those 2 guys would be a decent return for ellsbury in a 20 team dynasty? my thinking was to try and get a stud pitcher like price included as well (took over a team that had been neglected over the first 3 years of the league so have a good amount of holes) but i feel like i might need to send a lesser pitcher his way and i dont really have many enticing options.

  14. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @peter: Hehe… I’m a total Hatteberg, always getting on base!

    @daniel: Nah, don’t trade one stud for two question marks. If you can get Price too, then yeah.

  15. daniel says:
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    thanks grey. thats what i was thinking too. i appreciate the help

  16. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    @Grey: @Jay: @Jake: laughter > guilt

    Yeah, watched Real World. You all caught up finally?

  17. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Awesomus Maximus: Two things stand out. 1) How on earth is he not sleeping with that? 2) How on earth is he sleeping with that girl? 1. is the cowboy. 2. is the nerd on a Vespa.

  18. SwaggerJackers says:
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    Just wanted to repost this from the last comment since it was later in the day. Grey, you should sign up:

    For any diehard fantasy baseball fans, I created a slow mock auction baseball draft over at CouchManagers.com. I participated in one of these last year but this is the first time I’ve set one up.

    The idea is that we all nominate two players to start. You have $260 to spend total and each time a players price goes up, their clock gets 6 hours added back on. I’ll probably start it on Monday. If we don’t have enough people then bots will fill in the gaps.

    Here’s the link: http://www.couchmanagers.com/auctions/?auction_id=1

  19. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    @Grey: Little story here… I went to high school with a dude who Cowboy reminds me of. Very good looking, plenty of girls making offers, he was selective (which I respected, but everyone else wanted him to bang everything, anyway…). He finally started dating THE popular/gorgeous/cool girl, but never did the deed and she got bored and left.

    Cut to a couple years later and he’s at Rutgers, where I visit pretty regularly, and all his buddies there are asking why he never partakes in the ladies… apparently he’s still up to the same thing. One night after a party he and I take two girls back to his place and we’re goofing around in his room. He says he wants to see the two girls kiss, they say they want to see me and him kiss first. As I’m laughing, I notice my buddy leaning in for a f*#%ing kiss!

    Now I don’t have an ounce of homophobia in me, I just happen to not be gay, so I’m not interested in kissing a guy. Apparently he was up for it, though, he had some questions that he needed answered (ended up not being gay, very happily married with kids)… it explained a lot. I’m not saying Cowboy is gay or has some questions buried deep down, but it sure would explain a lot.

    As for the girls… I’m not a huge fan of blondes in general, and I don’t think she has a great face, bit that ass is absolutely ridiculous. There isn’t enough cold water in the world that could quell my early 20′s testosterone from taking that for a drive, regardless of how much respect I have for women.

    As for Vespanerd, seems like he got a healthy dose of reality when he went out looking for different/better ass. I kinda’ felt bad for him as I was laughing, especially when she said they were gonna’ have to do a lot of talking before she’d be comfortable with him again. I bet he didn’t have to put up with much talking before, poor bastard. Hehehe…

  20. Steve says:
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    Dunno what happened to that Madson deal but it looks like Papelbon is about to sign with the Phillies. 4 years, $50-odd million apparently.

  21. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Awesomus Maximus: That’s exactly what I was thinking about Zach. I mean, not your story, how could I know that? Unless I’m the other guy… Yeah, I was thinking Zach’s got some issues that he’s not talking about. He’s way too uncomfortable around Frank. That blonde girl is stupid hot, but I do like blondes. I kinda love that Frank called him Harry Potter’s friend and then next week they steal his cycle. He’s on the show thinking he’s the man meanwhile he’s getting punk’d.

    @Steve: I don’t think Madson’s was ever finalized.

  22. chata says:
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    @Steve:

    radio weei is reporting that it’s a done deal … 50 mil / 4 years .

  23. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    @Grey: Seeing that the cops are coming next week reminded me of the time someone called the cops to report peeing on their toothbrush… but forgot to mention that they had shoved the other person’s cigarettes up their ass earlier. Can’t remember who it was, but that was some funny crap.

  24. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Awesomus Maximus: Ah, yeah. That was the lunatic white boy in New Orleans vs. the gay black man.

  25. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    @Grey: Oh right, The Nutty Hairdresser! How could I forget?

  26. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Awesomus Maximus: Ha! Yeah, the nutty hairdresser who was also closeted. I wonder if MTV tries to put openly gay people with closeted people on purpose… Oh, who am I kidding? Of course they do!

  27. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    @Grey: C’mon man… that’s Real World Casting 101. There are no advanced courses.

  28. TualatinTwoStep says:
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    I know its early Grey, but I am trying to get a read on my keepers for next year and wanted to get your thoughts…..here is my roster after getting rid of some obvious dead weight, and I can keep 12:

    C Posey, VMart
    1B Fielder
    2B The Weeks Brothers
    SS HanRam, Dee Gordon
    3B Chisenhall
    OF Stanton, Crawford, Morse, Belt, Swisher
    SP Greinke, Bumgarner, Pineda
    RP Beard, Walden

    I need to hear who I should keep from a non Giants homer. Every time I look at it I cant bear to part with Belt, Beard, or Bumgarner.

    And I lost in the title game, so I will have the 11th pick. Not good odds on getting anyone that I cut that is worth a damn back.

    Thoughts?

  29. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Awesomus Maximus: Yeah, of course!

    @TualatinTwoStep: Never too early, TualatinTwoStep. Fielder, Hanley, Stanton, Crawford, Greinke, the catchers, Pineda, Bum, Morse, Beard and Rickie… If you really wanted to go Belt over Morse, it’s okay, I wouldn’t though.

  30. chata says:
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    @Grey:

    “… pass the sprinkle cheese!”

    ok . maybe , just maybe ….

    at one time in her past , she simply said ‘pass the cheese’ ,
    and fell victim to being identified as the source of a foul odor , that ,
    through one of life’s quirky twist of happenstance , occurred at that
    precise moment .

    in addition to mistakenly thinking he had heard ‘passing cheese’ ,
    her date proceeded to further douche it up by covering his nose with
    the restaurant’s linen napkin , jump up on the chair , and pointing
    a finger in her direction proclaiming “j’accuse . j’accuse” .
    and , ever since then , it’s been pass the SPRINKLE cheese .

    while a guy might proudly proclaim authorship , in that situation ,
    women are sensitive about stuff like that .

    cust alibi-ing .

  31. chata says:
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    @Grey:

    you’re welcome to accept that scenario as gospel .

    but a little mystery can go a long way towards heightening romance ,
    and you’re probably better off not knowing .

  32. TualatinTwoStep says:
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    Thanks Grey! I was hoping you would confirm I should keep Bum and Pineda. I think I will have a mean top 3 of my rotation next year, with a buttload of K’s. I really like Morse too, I’m not moving him. He was my waiver wire gem last year, I’m riding him til the wheels come off.

    I’ve heard VMart is losing his catcher eligibility on ESPN. If so I can only use him in a UTIL spot, and I would probably try to move him for whatever I can get.

    If I move VMart, whose the 12th guy? Belt? I was thinking if Reyes goes to Florida and HanRam goes to 3B I could keep Gordon. If not I really like Jemile Weeks’ upside, and Ricky is injury prone. Thoughts on this?

  33. TualatinTwoStep says:
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    *Rickie

  34. Trumbo to play some 3B once he & Morales are both healthy? Could be some time yet, but interesting.

    “‘I think the experiment wouldn’t be to see if he could be a 162-game third baseman, but if he could be a 50-game third baseman,’ Scioscia said. ‘It would deepen our lineup to have his bat in there with some of the others’ who could play first base.”

    http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/sports_blog/2011/11/setback-in-mark-trumbos-rehabilitation-will-delay-move-to-third-base.html

  35. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @chata: Ha! Nice alibi.

    @TualatinTwoStep: Belt’s the 12th guy. No on Jemile over Rickie, though I understand your concerns.

    @chata: Wait, they didn’t ask you?

    @centralohguy: Interesting… Thanks for sharing!

  36. mali says:
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    Hosmer is worth every penny. At $77, no but then again, I picked him up for $1.00 in 2010 and waited patiently. The 5-6 homers a month are, like you say Grey, Votto-ish. His stock will rise surely but what ceiling does he really have? I think with Cain leading off next season or even in the 2-hole (hope you made it there with your date the other night) should add another 10-15 RBI’s for him.

    When we see what Moose can actually do against ML pitching, Hosmer could be a strong 35-110-110 guy imo

  37. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @mali: Ha! I agree, but I think it’s a bit optimistic to expect that line for 2012. Can do it though, definitely.

  38. chata says:
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    @Grey:

    dismally ironic is that fact that earlier in the day , just started
    to make ‘future’ plans with my only friend ….recently diagnosed
    with a rare form of stomach cancer .
    now , with the discovery of the wbc skipping a year ,
    we just can’t catch a break .

  39. chata says:
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    @chata:

    haven’t had the heart to tell him , yet .
    still trying to think up some future plan that we can hang our hat on .

  40. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @chata: That’s a shame, sorry to hear that.

  41. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @TualatinTwoStep: don’t understand why v-mart should lose eligibility at C. ESPN rules state: “Positional Eligibility for Batters
    Additional positional eligibility for Batters occurs when one of the following conditions is met:

    Games played at a position during last season: 20″

    He played 26 games at C in 2011.

  42. TualatinTwoStep says:
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    Thanks Grey, and thanks simply fred, that is great info.

  43. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @TualatinTwoStep: No problem. I’m down the road in Eugene. Gotta’ cover each other’s back.

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