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Does anyone remember when Vince Vaughn was funny? It was a time long ago in a land far, far away, your wife was still dating guys wearing Armani Exchange shirts, and George W. Bush was using words like strategrey. It was long before the abortion that was True Detective Season 2, or Couples Retreat, and sometime between Swingers, and The Breakup. In that wrinkle in time Vince Vaughn ruled the box office, and the douchy part of our soul where things like Ed Hardy t-shirts, mirror selfies, and Criss Angel performances still roam free. So where am I going with this awkwardly constructed analogy? I’ll hurry up and get to the point, today’s subject Vince Velasquez has much in common with his big screen brother in initials, way beyond his first name and banal use of the word “Bae-be”. He too started his career with a bang, and universal love during his brief stay in Houston, and then the early season dominance in 2016. And much like Mr. Vaughn, Velasquez took on the task of leading man in the drama that is the Philadelphia Phillies 2017, but unfortunately he just hasn’t been able to recapture the magic. Maybe Velasquez’s nightmare seems less like a heroin dream, and more like a string of poor performances. But the effect is still the same, you just don’t view their latest release with the same excitement you used to. So when I was tasked with covering Velasquez this week by our fearless leader Grey Albright, it felt like a choir singing to me. Perhaps it was the angelic voice of Mr. Albright, perhaps it was my paycheck. Either way, when Grey Albright comes to you and asks “Can you see what’s happin’ with this young brother”, you A. wonder when he became a member of 5% Nation, B. you profile Vince Velasquez. So to the God Grey Albright this is for you…

 

Scouting Report: Velasquez is a power pitcher through and through, his arsenal is led by a dynamic mid 90’s four-seam fastball, that sits between 93-97. V2’s heat generates mores swings and misses than league average, producing a whiff rate of 11.8% on the pitch. The Fangraphs pitch value on the fastball of 5.2 is significantly higher than normal for a four-seamer with a usage rate of nearly 70%. So long story short, he’s got a great four seam fastball.

The story of Velasquez’s struggles this season, and really throughout his career, boil down to his sinker, and trio of off-speed pitches. While his four-seamer generates a 50%+ flyball rate, his off-speed stuff induces groundballs at rates of greater than 50% on each. The slider and changeup produce the highest whiff rates of his secondaries, each generating swings and misses at 12-13%. His slider is by far the better pitch, limiting batters to a batting average against of .250, while the change has gotten beat up this season to the tune of a .462 batting average against. The curveball and sinker aren’t far behind, with a BAA against of .435 on the hook, and .333 on the sinker. This is why the usage rate of 6.6% on his best secondary, the slider, is baffling. Let’s get into the tape, and see what answers await, because on the surface there’s a lot of unanswered in Velasquez’s profile.

Vincent Velasquez vs the Colorado Rockies Thursday, May 25th, 2017 at Citizens Bank Park Philadelphia, Pa

 

First Inning

Charlie Blackmon

92 MPH sinker, down and in, strike 1, 94 MPH 4 seamer, middle in, foul ball, 94 MPH FB, middle up, swing and miss by Blackmon. Three pitch strikeout.

Ian Desmond

94 MPH sinker, low and inside, poorly called strike 1, 94 MPH four-seam high and outside, popped up, Velasquez has 5 consecutive strikes on 5 consecutive fastballs, 77 MPH curveball low in the zone is hit for a single through the hole between short and third.

Nolan Arenado

94 MPH Fastball high to the inside corner, strike 1, hangs another curveball, and Arenado smacks it between the same space Desmond’s single found.

Carlos Gonzalez

Strike 1 in a 94 MPH four-seamer to the outside, 93 MPH fastball way outside, Ball 1, 91 MPH sinker, low for ball 2, 93 MPH four-seam to the outside swung and missed at 93, strike 2, Velasquez goes right back to the heat on the outside, breezing a 95 MPH pitch through the swinging Car-Go. Strikeout!

Mark Reynolds

94 MPH fastball high and inside, swing and missed, strike 1, 95 MPH high to the glove side fouled back for strike 2, 93 MPH FB outside is taken for ball 1, 94 MPH about chin high and over the plate, is popped up for out number three.

The curveball killed Vince in this inning, accounting for both hits. The four-swam fastball looked great particularly to the arm-side. The at bats that were exclusively fastballs were dominant.

Second Inning

Trevor Story

Change up down the pike at 90 MPH, taken for strike 1, a 93 MPH sinker drops low and inside to Story for ball 1, curveball at 82 middle-in whacked foul, 94 MPH down Main St. Is fouled back again, 1-2 count, 92 MPH high and inside, ball 2, 95 MPH to the glove-side of the plate fouled back again, 93 MPH elevating above the zone, full count, 93 MPH fastball is hit for a lazy flyball to left.

Alexi Amarista

93 MPH over the inside part of the plate, strike 1, fastball at 94 to the outside part of the plate, ball 1, another fastball taken for ball 2, 93 MPH four-seamer swing and missed on the inside, strike 2, Velasquez goes right back to the fastball on the outside part of the plate for a swinging strike 3.

Ryan Hanigan

94 MPH sinker outside, ball 1, high fastball at 94, ball 2, fastball down the middle at 93 is fouled back, 2-1 count, 93 MPH fastball to the outside is turned on for a single.

Tyler Anderson

92 MPH to the outside, ball 1, swinging strike 1 to the inside, another fastball at 94 to the outside part of the plate, swinging strike 2, fastball at 93 is whacked foul, 96 MPH fastball over the plate is a swing and miss for strike 3.

Inning started off great but you could see he missed his spot a couple times and it got to him. He calmed down after a visit from Rupp, and struck out the pitcher.

Third Inning

Charlie Blackmon

Fastball at 92 starts off Blackmon for strike 1, curveball to the outside ball 1, another curveball outside at 77 ball 2, 91 MPH changeup to the outside for ball 3, 92 MPH sinker on the inside for a questionable strike 2, four consecutive fastballs are fouled off, before we see his first slider, also fouled off, Velasquez gets him on a swinging strike three on a high heater.

Ian Desmond

93 MPH fastball high and inside fouled for strike 1, an 83 MPH slider to the outside gets a swinging strike two, that pitch is nice, 95 MPH fastball down Main Street is hit by the second baseman for another single.

Nolan Arenado

84 MPH slider is taken for a ball, as Desmond heads to second, and is called out on the replay, 87 MPH slider low is taken for ball 2, a 92 MPH four seamer to the glove side is swung and missed for strike 1, another fastball at 93 gets a foul for strike 2, a 94 MPH middle in is fouled again, 81 MPH curveball gets away from him for a ball 3, another awful curveball brushes Arenado back for a walk.

Carlos Gonzalez

Fastball on the outside for 93, fouled back for strike 1, fastball for a ball, followed by a fastball that’s hit into right field for a single.

Mark Reynolds

85 MPH slider taken low for ball 1, fastball low and inside taken again for strike 1, fastball over the plate is fouled off for strike 2, fastball at 94 is high and inside, foul tip, 83 MPH slider gets a grounder to Franco who throws to second for the force out to end the inning.

A 30 pitch inning for Velasquez, heavily inflated by his battle with Blackmon. He introduced the slider finally, and it easily could have gotten away from him, but he buckled down and got the job done.

Fourth Inning

Trevor Story

Fastball 91, middle in, fouled for strike 1, curveball at 82 over the middle, strike 2, fastball middle middle is launched to right center for a homer.

Alexi Amarista

Fastball down the middle, strike 1, curveball to the outside taken for ball 1, another curve is whacked to right for a single.

Ryan Hanigan

Leads with a 92 MPH fastball down the middle for strike 1, 93 MPH on the inside fouled back, strike 2, another fastball fouled back, curve to the outside gets a groundball and Amarista is out on a fielder’s choice.

Tyler Anderson

Immediate sacrifice for Anderson, moves the runner along.

Charlie Blackmon

Slider to the outside fouled off, strike 1, 92 MPH low and inside, ball 1, another low fastball chased for strike 2, 94 MPH fastball to the outside is taken for strike 3.

Two mistakes to Story and Amarista, otherwise a solid inning.

Fifth Inning

Ian Desmond

Fastball at 92 MPH taken for ball 1, another 92 MPH over the plate is hit for a lazy fly to right field.

Nolan Arenado

Fastball at 94 is fouled off. Change up at 87 is fouled back as well, strike 2, 92 MPH fastball up high gets a swing and a miss from Arenado.

Carlos Gonzalez

Fastball at 93 is hit to the right side for a hard grounder. Car-Go moves to second on Michael Saunders lackadaisical defense.

Mark Reynolds

Fastball 93 MPH low and outside, ball 1, 94 MPH fastball middle and high swing and a miss, strike 1, slider at 83 taken for ball 2, 94 MPH fastball fouled off for strike 2, 93 MPH pitch is hit and popped up for a fly out to right field.

A solid final inning for Vince, as he manages to only allow one hit to Car-Go on a hard grounder. His day is over, and he ends it on a high note making quick work of the heart of the Rockies order.

 

5 IP, 8 Hits, 1 ER, 1 Bb, 7 K’s, 94 Pitches, 70 Strikes, Game score 50

Summary: This was one of the stronger starts of Velasquez’s season, which is saying something, that it’s a 5 inning 1 run effort. His fastball is dynamic and as good as advertised, but no surprises there. He commands it well all throughout the zone, as well as to both sides of the plate. Velasquez rarely misses his spots with his four-seamer. The curveball on the other hand is god awful. After consecutive weeks of profiling pitchers with elite curveballs this stood in stark contrast. He needs to throw that pitch almost never, because hitters eat it up.

As the numbers alluded to in my pre-scout dig, he needs to throw his slider more. It generates weak contact, and if sequenced correctly could be a real weapon. His change is nothing more than a straight, less fast, fastball. In fact I’m sure I mis-identified his change as a fastball once or twice. Overall not a bad start, and there’s certainly room for improvement, though it might be a slow burn.

 

 

Razzball Baseball

Updated Top 100 SP

(rankings for ROS based on 12-team Roto)

RANK SP, TEAM
1 Chris Sale, BOS
2 Clayton Kershaw, LAD
3 Max Scherzer, WAS
4 Yu Darvish, TEX
5 Jacob deGrom, NYM
6 Zack Greinke, ARI
7 Chris Archer, TB
8 Lance McCullers, HOU
9 Stephen Strasburg, WAS
10 Carlos Carrasco, CLE 
11 Dallas Keuchel, HOU
12 Corey Kluber, CLE  
13 Michael Pineda, NYY
14 Carlos Martinez, STL
15 Jon Lester, CHC
16 Johnny Cueto, SF
17 Gerrit Cole, PIT
18 Michael Fulmer, DET
19 Jake Arrieta, CHC
20 Danny Duffy, KC
21 James Paxton, SEA
22 Alex Wood, LAD
23 Marco Estrada, TOR
24 Luis Severino, NYY
25 Robbie Ray, ARI 
26 Jeff Samardzija, SF 
27 Eduardo Rodriguez, BOS 
28 Marcus Stroman, TOR
29 Kyle Hendricks, CHC
30 Rick Porcello, BOS
31 Kenta Maeda, LAD
32 Sean Manaea, OAK
33 Jose Berrios, MIN
34 Ivan Nova, PIT
35 Lance Lynn, STL
36 Dylan Bundy, BAL
37 Michael Wacha, STL
38 Justin Verlander, DET
39 Jake Odorizzi, TB
40 Madison Bumgarner, SF
41 Sonny Gray, OAK
42 Jose Quintana, CHW
43 Noah Syndergaard, NYM
44 Rich Hill, LAD
45 Mike Leake, STL
46 Andrew Triggs, OAK
47 Masahiro Tanaka, NYY
48 Steven Matz, NYM 
49 Jimmy Nelson, MIL
50 Dan Straily, MIA 
51 Jason Vargas, KC
52 Taijuan Walker, ARI 
53 Ervin Santana, MIN 
54 Brandon McCarthy, LAD 
55 David Price, BOS 
56 Matt Shoemaker, LAA 
57  John Lackey, CHC 
58 Adam Wainwright, STL 
59 Matt Andriese, TB 
60 Drew Pomeranz, BOS
61 Tanner Roark, WAS 
62 Alex Cobb, TB 
63 Chase Anderson, MIL  
64 Aaron Nola, PHI 
65 Daniel Norris, DET
66 Jerad Eickhoff, PHI  
67 Derek Holland, CWS  
68 Charlie Morton, HOU 
69 Wade Miley, BAL 
70 J.C. Ramirez, LAA
71 Gio Gonzalez, WAS 
72 Zack Wheeler, NYM 
73 Antonio Senzatela, COL  
74 Jaime Garcia, ATL
75 Trevor Bauer, CLE 
76 Julio Teheran, ATL 
77  Kendall Graveman, OAK 
78 Tyler Anderson, COL
79 Hyun-Jin Ryu, LAD  
80 Vincent Velasquez, PHI 
81 Kyle Freeland, COL 
82 Matt Harvey, NYM
83 Joe Ross, WAS 
84 Joe Musgrove, HOU
85 Mike Foltynewicz, ATL  
86 Mike Clevinger, CLE
87 Erasmo Ramirez, TB
88 Jeremy Hellickson, PHI
89 Clayton Richard, SD
90 C.C. Sabathia, NYY
91 Amir Garrett, CIN
92 Scott Feldman, CIN
93 Zack Godley, ARI
94 Dinelson Lamet, SD
95 Ty Blach, SF
96 Jesse Chavez, LAA
97 Matt Garza, MIL
98 Luis Perdomo, SD
99 Patrick Corbin, ARI
100 Ricky Nolasco, LAA

Coming Up:  Jacob Faria, TB, Brandon Woodruff, MIL, Sean Newcomb, ATL, Jose De Leon, TB, Josh Hader, MIL, Brent Honeywell, TB

Dropped off: Danny Salazar, CLE, Julio Urias, LAD, Aaron Sanchez, TOR,  Jesse Hahn, OAK, Felix Hernandez, SEA, Trevor Cahill, SD, Carlos Rodon, CHW, Chad Kuhl, PIT, Matt Moore, SF

  • I ranked Johnny Cueto above Gerrit Cole if only based off of the better K/9 numbers, and superior swing and miss stuff. However his 27% LD% allowed is bad, like my Perts League Team bad. When Johnny has been bad, he’s been atrocious.
  • As a big fan of Rick Porcello, it pains me to say this, but he has to be moved down. Even if he’s not pitching that poorly. When you average 10 hits a game over the course of four consecutive starts it’s tough to take a positive spin. Sure his K’s are up (8.96), and the walk rate is still elite (1.71), but a 1.48 WHIP is a 1.48 WHIP. He’s also had the antithetical run support of 2016, getting literally zero runs from the Red Sox offense in 6 of 9 starts.  Pitching is a different game without a 5 run lead.
  • Danny Salazar has been moved to the bullpen and is hence off the list. He still leads all qualified starters in K/9, but he’s been hit hard, and had trouble finding the zone on Saturday. Francona made it sound like it might be one or two turns in the rotation. Salazar should be back in the rotation and the ranks by the second week of June.
  • Peripherally speaking, which sounds like something you’d say to give context to a blindfolded Pepsi challenge, Jeff Samardzija is having a great season. I mean seriously how good does this look, 10.46 K/9, 1.46 Bb/9, 2.95 SIERA, 3 positive value pitches according to Fangraphs, and an 11.6% SwStr? Pretty good, amirite? The only significant approach change for Samardzija has been all but scrapping that “Cooper Cutter”, he started leaning on during his Season 2 of True Detective in Chicago two years ago. His ratios have been inflated by a trio of bad starts in Arizona, Colorado, and …….at the Mets?!?
  • One of the toughest starters to rank is Ivan Nova, on one hand he’s like mint flavored lube for your ratios, on the other a 4.76 K/9 is a major strain on your strikeout totals. Much like the O.G. Nova, he’s perfect for PBS. That’s a public broadcasting joke.
  • Over his past four starts Kenta Maeda has been who we thought he was, going 3-0 with a 2.84 ERA/2.39 FIP/3.36 xFIP, a 4.17 K/Bb, and just 1 homer over 25.1 innings. He was awful in his first four starts, going 1-2 with a 8.05 ERA, 3.80 K/Bb, and 7 homers allowed over 19 innings.
  • I know, I know, Rich Hill should probably be higher, but his rank is discounted by significant injury concerns. If it’s not the blisters that get him, it will be the Dodgers musical DL chair. If he’s healthy, he’s a top 25 starter.
  • Hey, Masahiro Tanaka! Great game! Seriously *reaches out, mats hair on Tanaka’s head*, good work little buddy. *Looks at camera Ferris Buehler style* So guys, Friday was great and all, but do you trust this guy?
  • RIP Charlie Morton 2017 hype, it was fun while it lasted. Glad we had a chance to work together. He’s down with a lat sprain, so I buried him deep in the 60’s. The 60’s are to mediocre pitchers as the 40’s are to good ones. A waiting room for redemption or death.
  • After watching David Price’s rehab in Pawtucket last week, I’m slotting him outside the top 50. Let’s see what we get today in Chicago. When you more or less admit that if you were 25 you would have opted for surgery, it can only mean one thing. You need surgery.
  • The Dodgers are just being pains now, they placed Alex Wood on the DL two hours before this posted. He’s been discounted accordingly.

 

Follow me on Twitter @Ralphlifshitzbb, and check out my weekly Live Baseball Show on Fantrax YouTube channel Tuesday’s at 9 PM EST

 

   
  1. Tony C says:
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    Hey Ralph I love your work on prospects and pitching. I’m a native RI’er so I appreciate your take on our hometown teams in Pawtucket and Beantown. Keep up the good work brother.
    I was wondering which pitcher has the most upside this year among Jharrell Cotton, Brad Peacock or JC Ramirez? Thanks

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Tony C: Hey Tony! Coffee milk life and Coney Island dogs for all!! I was in Pawtucket yesterday afternoon. I’m going with Ramirez with the most upside. Don’t trust Cotton.

    • Tony C says:
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      Peacock was just picked up today but I noticed Jimmy Nelson is also available.

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Tony C: Grab Nelson

  2. Ralph Lifshitz

    Ralph Lifshitz says:
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    With a 4-8 week time table Danny Duffy should be dropped down into the 60’s. Two months hurts his value quite a bit.

    • Sport says:
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      @Ralph Lifshitz:
      Thoughts on Eric Skoglund? Who are the other young arms in KC we will see in July/August?

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Sport: I think we see Josh Staumont, who’s a k machine but weak on the control side. Might see Straum in the rotation at somebody point. Skoglund has a good fastball, solid curve, and meh other offerings. He could be solid though.

        • Sport says:
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          @Ralph Lifshitz: Losing Duffy means we (Royals fan) surely see some of the prospects you have informed us about late in July! Right? My blue is out of it. I have enjoyed the run but I’m afraid it’s over. I gotta have something to be excited about so let’s see if we get any of your top 100 prospects!

          • Ralph Lifshitz

            Ralph Lifshitz says:
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            @Sport: I’m excited for Staumont, but he’s not ready. They should just let Raul Mondesi play everyday.

            • Sport says:
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              @Ralph Lifshitz: Raul will take shortstop when Eskie leaves

              • Ralph Lifshitz

                Ralph Lifshitz says:
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                @Sport: Why kit have him play second?

  3. Joeg414 says:
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    Who should I keep on the DL , other I would Cut. Duffy or C.Morton? Re-Draft

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Joeg414: Probably Morton, if Duffy is out two months that’s bad. No word on Morton

  4. Kyle Bes says:
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    Which side

    Mccullers
    Trumbo
    Dee Gordon

    Or

    Owings
    Odor (or Travis)
    Cespedes
    Edwin Diaz

    • Packers says:
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      @Kyle Bes: McCullers side.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Kyle Bes: McCullers side

  5. John says:
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    Hey Ralph, great work on the write-up! Always enjoy coming to Razzball for my fantasy news and updates.

    I have a ROS question. I’m in a moves limit league and just lost Morton so I was wondering who you thought had more upside ROS. Really just looking for a back-end of the rotation guy that won’t blow up my box score.

    Jimmy Nelson, German Marquez, Tyson Ross, Junior Guerra, and Musgrove.

    Thanks!

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @John: Jimmy Nelson, I’m loving what he’s doing this season.

  6. Sport says:
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    Love the analysis you show us. You have taught me a lot since you started the top 100 SP.

    Would you go get Vince in a dynasty while you buy low?

    Calhoun or Kingery in a 16 team dynasty? My team could use some speed but I still want the best hitter.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Sport: thanks for reading, glad I can edcumacate.

      I would, the value is there, and he’s a worthy gamble.

      I’d take the plunge with Calhoun if position is meaningless. If you want a guy who 100% sticks at 2nd, go Kingery.

  7. David says:
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    Wacha, Lynn, or Bundy? Rank in order for ROS for H2H 10 team with W,L, ERA, whip, k, tb, qs, and k/bb categories..thanks! Keep up the good work =]

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @David: Same as above my good man.

  8. ferris says:
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    Rosario (NYM) or Arcia (MIL) for 2017?

    Seems like last year everyone was touting Arcia (especially his speed) as an elite prospect.

    Put on your prospect hat for me and tell me what you think about these guys relative to each other for this year (and if you think either has top 75 potential in 2018)?

    Graci

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @ferris: I think Rosario is the better bat, he has more value for 2017 once he’s called up and the same for 2018 +

  9. ichirosan says:
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    My 16-man H2H dynasty team has really, really tanked, and I’m currently 2-6 with little hope of making it back to contention. I’m seriously thinking about a soft rebuild, trading older players for young talent close or already in the majors. So far, I have three offers I like:

    Giving up Jean Segura for Aledmys Díaz and Blake Rutherford (which I don’t fully buy, as his OTA seems too far for my taste)

    Giving up Jason Heyward and Brandon McCarthy for José De León and Eddie Butler (which seems like a no-brainer given my plan)

    Giving up Strasburg, Segura and Car-Go for George Springer, César Hernández, Corey Knebel and Brendan Rodgers (still undecided, as I think I might get better value if I shop Strasburg alone).

    Thoughts?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @ichirosan: Donr like 1 or 3, could do 2 if there was something better than Butler.

  10. Kyle Bes says:
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    Which side

    Trumbo
    Gordon

    Or

    Owings
    Odor
    Cespedes

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Kyle Bes: Owings, Odor, Cespedes side.

  11. John says:
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    Points League:
    Robbie Ray and Dickerson for Kershaw and Chris Davis?

    • LenFuego says:
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      @John: Kershaw side, not close.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @John: Yeah Kershaw side easy.

  12. LenFuego says:
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    I appreciate the VV analysis since I have him and am faced with a weekly decision as to whether to start him or put someone else in my 12 team 5×5 weekly roto lineup.

    One small complaint: each and every one of the 6 pitches that you included video of was a fastball up in the zone. I get it, he has got some effective high heat. It would have really rounded out your analysis to see at least one of every pitch he throws, especially at least one of those troublesome curveballs and one of the sliders you think he should be throwing more of instead.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @LenFuego: I don’t have the ability to make gifs of non-highlight video clips. It’s illegal otherwise. I’d love to show you more than that.

      I tried to upload the whole game tape and grab specific pitches but it didn’t work. If you have any idea how to get other pitches, let me know. I’m serious too.

  13. Clive says:
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    TAillon worth snagging now? How long til he’s back in the lineup? Thanks!

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Clive: I would he looked electric over the weekend.

  14. M says:
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    Thoughts on Peacock ROS?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @M: Depends what his role is, if he’s in the rotation he’s interesting due to the K upside.

  15. Chucky says:
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    Nelson, Chase Anderson, Folty or Biagini….to replace Duffy in a Dynasty? Or Hold? Have lots of depth at SP, don’t need the roster spot at this time. Can afford to speculate. Have any ideas who might best fill that spot who’s still in minors? Not looking for a long term minor leaguer but someone to prospect and hold and maybe get some second half time out of. Honeywell? Devers?Hoskins?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Chucky: Nelson

  16. Scuffy McGee says:
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    Which two do you like most ROS (11 tm keeper, roto)? J Ross, McCarthy, Taillon, JA Happ

    Thanks!

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Scuffy McGee: Taillon and Happ

  17. David says:
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    Thanks for the great post again! Sooo 10 Team H2H league I’m looking to snag Mookie for a 5 tool player for OF. I offered Adam Jones, Cole Hamels, and Knebel (he’s desperate for pitchers/good closers) and possibly thinking of adding Lynn as a kicker

    I feel like I’m cheating him out of Mookie if he accepts..am I? Or is that relatively fair.

    PS we have a lot of sensitive traders in this league and last trade got accepted but vetoed (it was a little too favorable admittedly) but I want to make sure this goes through, thanks!

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @David: I’d add in Lynn, you’re getting Mookie.

  18. lyricist says:
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    Alright… I bounced Banal Gio (who I am starting tomorrow against SF) and Ambiguous Shoemaker for Jimmy and Straily. I’m going to try and pick their good starts for next month or so and avoid the land mines. LOL… I’m sure that will go smoothly. Hopefully they can find 6 innings.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @lyricist: Like Jimmy a lot, prefer him to Gio. Shoe vs Straily is wash, both guys I want to own for good matchups.

  19. Swfcdan says:
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    Wood DL’d now, can’t we have anything nice??? Damn you Dodgers, damn you.

    Now speaking to Prospector Ralph, whats happened to Espinoza this year? Hasn’t pitched at all yet due to forearm tightness, but lack of reports is mystifying. Would you be looking to sell in keepers now?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Swfcdan: I’d be looking to add my good man, I think you might be able to get him at a discount.

      • Swfcdan says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz: Well I own him in my keeper league, but it’s good to hear you aren’t too concerned. Should be back starting in games soon?

        Also like how you’ve started calling me “me good man” regularly now. You are quickly climbing up to the summit to catch up on Grey, for my favourite fantasy baseball pert!

  20. Saints says:
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    Hay Ralph great Stuff.
    Which of those guys would you target in a dynasty league for a trade (im fighting for a playoff spot):
    Michael Pineda
    Andrew Triggs
    Chase Anderson
    Zack Wheeler
    Wade Miley

    Thanks for your help

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
      (link)

      @Saints: Pineda, Triggs, and Anderson.

  21. PM_me_alexwood_woodies says:
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    Even an injured alex wood deserves to be a top 10 starter. Chump! Chump-eerios for your breakfast, eh?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @PM_me_alexwood_woodies: Hahaha! I love you! He was at 11 until about 2 hours before this posted.

  22. Jb says:
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    No Taiilon in your top 100 should be back in next 10 days

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Jb: I know, and I have every intention of adding him back in. Prolly going to remove all DL guys next week.

  23. John says:
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    Hi Ralph,

    Thanks for the help on the early question but I have a few follow up.

    Thoughts on Bregman for E-Rod?

    Do you like Porcello in buy-low if expectations are for him to be an SP3-4 on your team going fwd?

    also in H2H redraft, is Beinintendi for Samardzija giving up too much?

    Thanks for the advice.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
      (link)

      @John: I’d prefer the Bregman side

      Sure, people do value you him pretty low.

      I’d want Benintendi

      Thanks for the read!

      • John says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz: thanks Ralph! Just traded Bregman for Bundy and Bush. If I was gonna hold onto an AL East pitcher with flyball tendencies, let it be the one who is striking guys out.

        I might have asked this in a prior post but was wondering what side you like. Rizzo for Myers and Samardzija?

        Thanks!

  24. hotmilk8 says:
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    Rankings for Taillon and Happ Please???

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @hotmilk8: Happ around Berrios, and Taillon around Bundy

  25. hotmilk8 says:
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    10 team points league pick 2/3 for ROS McCarthy,Walker,Nelson
    Thanks

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @hotmilk8: Walker and Nelson. I have no idea what McCarthy’s IP total ends up. There is some risk with Walker and that blister.

  26. Blue JA says:
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    Dangle J.Ross, T. Ross, or JA Happ for the demoted D.Salazar on a buy-low??

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Blue JA: Easy Happ for me

  27. Mike and Ike says:
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    Ralph,

    Thoughts on Buxton?

    It’s been 2 months now with very little to show for it. Think its dumb to move on? Last September just a fluke? Or do I need to be patient? I’ve got him in several leagues, all keeper leagues, one keeps the top 75 players, one keeps the top 100, and one keeps the top 250.

    Thanks

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Mike and Ike: I think September was a fluke and I said it in the offseason. In redraft drop him, if it’s dynasty you just got to hold.

      • Mike and Ike says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz: Thanks. Yeah I think I am going to move on…

        What are your thoughts on Bellinger? If I am in win-now mode and can’t fit him on my team what return should I be getting in a keeper league? OBP/SLG 10 team

      • Mike and Ike says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz: And same question about Confoto and Judge

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
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          @Mike and Ike: I prefer Judge and Conforto for this season.

      • Mike and Ike says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz: Got an actual trade offer for you to evaluate:

        I get Paxton, JD, and Han Ram

        He gets Bellinger, Dahl. Odor, Buxton, Nola

        Should I accept?

        Thanks

        • Mike and Ike says:
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          @Mike and Ike: Or I can drop Bellinger from my side and change JD to Trumbo on his side

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
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          @Mike and Ike: If it’s a dynasty don’t do that deal, if it’s redraft please do.

          • Mike and Ike says:
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            @Ralph Lifshitz: Thanks for the help, got the deal done

  28. Cheese says:
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    Interesting to see Greinke at 6… In my 16 team h2h 6×6 (ops, qs, k/9, k/bb), I was offered Greinke for my Freeman. Roto I think its a no brainer, but since this is h2h what do you think?

    C – Matt Wieters
    1B – Tommy Joseph
    2B – Roughned Odor
    3B – Ryon Healy
    SS – Treat Turner
    MI – Freddy Galvis
    CI – Justin Bour
    LF – Ian Desmond
    CF – Cameron Maybin
    RF – Josh Bell
    OF – Carlos Beltran
    OF – Adam Jones
    Util – Stephen Piscotty
    BEN – Jorge Bonifacio
    DL – Freddie Freeman

    SP – Lance McCullers
    SP – James Paxton
    SP – Jake Odorizzi
    SP – Zack Wheeler
    SP – Nate Karns
    RP – Edwin Diaz
    RP – Hector Neris
    RP – AJ Ramos
    BEN – Adam Ottavino
    DL – Madison Bumgarner

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
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      @Cheese: If it’s a non-keeper, non-dynasty do that deal. Greinke’s numbers look great. I went through each and every starter the last 7 days and re-ranked from scratch. He’s every bit a 6. Go get’em!

  29. Steve says:
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    Ervin Santana ranked 53rd……. OK.

    Lowest ERA among starters in the majors
    Has gone 6 or more innings in ALL 11 games started
    Two complete games
    Has allowed 1 or 0 earned runs in 9 of 11 games

    I am tired of everybody saying it is just luck. There has to be more to it. Maybe Santana has something that we don’t measure.

    • Steve says:
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      @Steve:

      Oh, and Santana just held the red hot Astros to 1 ER in 7 innings. Ask the Twins relievers if that is hard to do.

    • Cheese says:
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      @Steve: 4.09 FIP, 4.67 xFIP, 91.2% LOB, .143 BABIP, 6.55 K/9 (career low), 3.39 BB/9 (career low)

      WATCH OUT, THE REGRESSION FAIRIES ARE COMING

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
      (link)

      @Steve: On the surface you’re right but where would you rank him? I didn’t just rank these guys off who I liked I ranked them off of deep dives into the numbers. Give me something besides the leader board. These are ROS ranks, and I’m doing the impossible of trying to predict the future. I can’t imagine he keeps this up. Even if I ranked him with rose-colored glasses is he top 25? Top 30? At most it feels like we’re arguing about 10-12 spots. Maybe we aren’t… where do rank him?

      His freaking BABIP is .148! His LOB% is 91.2%.

  30. hothot says:
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    Is Lackey still a HOLD in re-draft leagues or is he now droppable to stream arms like Straily & Jimmy Nelson?

    My brain says stick with him for another month but my gut says move on & stream.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
      (link)

      @hothot: I think you should stream, if he ain’t doing it someone else is.

  31. daze says:
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    Hey Ralph
    I am thinking which is always dangerous
    With Headley sucking big time do you think Greybar comes up sooner than later
    Maybe in June?
    I know it pure speculation but I would make the move and pick him up and hold
    I just dont want to if I have to wait till July

    What do you think?
    Thanks

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
      (link)

      @daze: If you can sit on him for a couple of weeks do it.

  32. Jason Hastings says:
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    Thoughts on a Thor/Stanton trade for G. Cole/Bundy trade. 12tm, 7×7 cat.?

    • Jason Hastings says:
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      @Jason Hastings: What are the chances, in your opinion, that Thor can come back and pitch to what he’s capable of

      • Ralph Lifshitz

        Ralph Lifshitz says:
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        @Jason Hastings: I’d take that deal.

  33. Stumanji! says:
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    Hey Ralph! Great to see you on multiple articles/topics on razzball. Really trust your stuff.

    Regarding prospects, I was just perusing your pre-season top 100, and know you have your weekly Prospects article with updates. Do you keep a running top 100 anywhere, or do you only update the list mid-season? I’m in a 10 team keeper league which is pretty shallow, but I’m kinda sorta looking ahead to 2018 with my 5th and final keeper spot after trading a few fringe keepers away. Already-promoted guys like Zimmer and Happ are already owned, in addition to the hyped names like Moncada, Rosario, Gleyber, and Meadows. Is there one next in line guy knocking on the door that you’d be targeting as a June call-up? Available options are Brinson, Barreto, Clint Frazier…really anybody else not listed above. WHO’S THE NEXT BIG STAR???

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
      (link)

      @Stumanji!: I’d go after Derek Fisher

      • Stumanji! says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz: I had been watching him but thought the Astros lineup was too crowded. Thanks, Ralph!

      • Eli Man Penguin Boy says:
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        @Ralph Lifshitz: i’m assuming this fisher over brinson due to ETA here, or has your list changed that much, cause it would be a huge move.

        • Ralph Lifshitz

          Ralph Lifshitz says:
          (link)

          @Eli Man Penguin Boy: Nah I mis-read the question. Brinson is still the guy

  34. TTRA1N says:
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    Salazar was dropped in my league. Worth a grab?

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
      (link)

      @TTRA1N: Sure if you can hold for a week or two.

  35. Eric says:
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    Between 1-10, how confident are you in Jimmy Nelson maintaining a top 50 ranking ros?

    • Eli Man Penguin Boy says:
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      @Eric: 3.7

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
      (link)

      @Eric: Looked great last night.

  36. Alex says:
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    Hey Ralph, are you high on Lamet? Would you pick him up or Happ for a two start week and beyond?

    I might drop Anderson before his start vs. SD tomorrow.

    • Ralph Lifshitz

      Ralph Lifshitz says:
      (link)

      @Alex: I love Lamet, and you could drop Happ, he ain’t doing much. This is all assuming it’s redraft.

      Really like Anderson’s start at San Diego

Comments are closed.