Comments on: Vazquez Traded, 2009 Fantasy Implications

By: Rudy Gamble

Rudy Gamble — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 17:21:43 +0000

Vazquez has had only one above average year in the last 5. In 2007, his ERA+ (ERA vs league average) was 127 or 27% better than league average. The other four years were: 92, 100, 98, 98.

No reason to believe he does any better than league average. NL league average last year was 4.21. So I’l go w/ 4.30.

By: Grey

Grey — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 17:11:13 +0000

@big o: There might also be an argument to be made that the NL East is stronger than the AL Central. @IowaCubs: I would look to grab him in the 160 to 180 range with 200 being value.

By: IowaCubs

IowaCubs — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 16:56:00 +0000

If he’s simply “rated” at this point, what would his real value be? Is 10th round (12 team lg) too high?

120 to 140?

By: big o

big o — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 16:20:18 +0000

@grey
saying that James would adjust down-ward from his 3.80 , now that vasquez has moved to the national league , to 3.63 .
for the sake of conversation , leave it at 3.80 , if you wish .
i’m not saying that vasquez completely loses it this year .
just that we won’t see the improvement that one would normally associate with such a move .
and that his ERA will be close to 1/2 run higher than James predicts .

By: Mike Podhorzer

Mike Podhorzer — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 15:58:28 +0000

As a Braves fan AND Vazquez fan, I’m ecstatic. I figured he’d end up on almost all my teams in 2009, and now it’s even more of a sure thing. I just hope your last line about him becoming simply rated now isn’t true. I want to be able to pay the same for him as if he had still been with the Sox, but receive even better stats than I initially expected.

Should be interesting to see how this affects his ADP in the coming weeks in the millions of mock drafts that seem to be going on. Pray with me Grey that this trade doesn’t change it!

By: Grey

Grey — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 15:20:41 +0000

@big o: You put his ERA at 3.63, but then say Bill James misses the mark. Why? I'm confused.

By: big o

big o — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 15:12:02 +0000

ok , now i’m getting bored .
4.39

By: big o

big o — Wed, 03 Dec 2008 13:47:24 +0000

do any of you guys ever challenge Bill James ?
since i have no reputation to lose (whatsoever) , i’ll do it for you .
as , i believe , James would use a conservative 5-6% improvement in ERA for the switch to the national league , i’ll put his adjusted ERA at 3.63 .
but even giving him a range of 3.63 – 3.80 , James misses the mark . javy’s ERA will fall within the 4.12 – 4.19 range for the 2009 season .

criticize away .
if provoked , i’d bet a pina colada that his ERA is closer to 4.29