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Happy All Star Break!

I’ve crawled out of my lamely above-ground bunker in Austin (my house, similar to the Alamo, has no basement) to note some enhancements we’ve made over the All-Star break.

Our partners at Steamer Projections have incorporated 1H 2013 minor league hitting and pitching stats into the Rest of Season projections.  This improves the results (generally for the better) for rookies such as Yasiel Puig (now projected as a $25 player).  This improvement also helps the Stream-o-Nator and Hitter-tron projections since these ROS projections serve as their foundation.

As I’ve opined before, our focus this year was developing tools and player pages that will help you make quicker, smarter fantasy baseball decisions.  With Stream-o-Nator and Hitter-tron, we feel we provide great gameday resources for those of you who play in daily formats.  To complement these projections, we have now added links to the following resources on those pages (under Gameday Resources in the top menu):

  • Lineups – This links to BaseballPress.com’s lineup page.  I have found their site to be the cleanest one-stop shop for lineup data.  They have lineups well before ESPN/Yahoo recognize it in their league sites and at nearly the same time as Twitter.  I find it to be a great way to get the jump on last minute lineup add/drops for any daily league format.  Added bonus – every player will soon be hyperlinked to their Razzball player page so you can see next 7 data on the player!
  • Matchups –  This links to DailyBasebalData.com’s Batter vs. Pitcher matchups for today’s games.  While I maintain my skepticism towards the value of this data as anything more than a ‘tiebreaker’ between two similarly-valued players, I know a lot of you still use it and we wanted to provide a quick link to it.  I like how DailyBaseballData combines all the data onto one page (vs having to flip through a page per game) and the player names are already linked back to the Razzball player page!

If there are any other gameday resources that you’d like us to consider, let us know in the comments.

Lastly, I haven’t forgotten about those of you mourning the loss of SLG in the Hitter-tron pages.  I still don’t have room to include it without axing another stat.  I think AB is probably the least useful stat in the bunch so want to get a vote from everyone if switching out AB for SLG is acceptable.  You can write-in another stat to remove if you so wish.

From Around The Web

  1. Pete says:
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    Would you drop Phil Hughes for Jacob Turner? And if so, would you then start Turner this weekend over Hellickson? 16-team H2H points league.

    • Pete says:
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      @Pete: Or he could start over Bud Norris, another irritating pitcher on my roster this season.

    • Steamer prefers Hughes over Turner but can’t say I really love either (and appreciate that Turner has had a solid run). I would prefer the Hellickson start.

  2. Moose Out Front says:
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    Dat line-up tool.

    It’s almost like you don’t want us to go to any other websites. Great work.

    • Ha…they do a good job. And I certainly will be more biased when they add our player page links :)

    • JDW says:
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      @Moose Out Front:

      I agree. A friend in an ESPN league asked today “Did you listen to the podcast”, meaning ESPN’s Fantasy Focus. He was surprised when I said “Nah, I don’t bother anymore.” Stopped reading their articles too – though I still like Tristan H. Cockroft (name has that whole Jesus H. Christ tempo to it.) Razzball is really all I need. Love you guys.

  3. NoonTime says:
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    Hey what is the trade deadline for the RCLs?

  4. Tom Thumb says:
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    Loving the new tools on the site.

    Would you guys move Jose Fernandez for Shields and Medlen. It’s a keeper league but I generally don’t keep pitchers. Will this help me win a roto league with QS this year?

    • Thanks. Shields is probably a better bet than J-Fer for QS by himself. Wouldn’t be surprised if J-Fer shut down early this year.

      So it’s worthwhile if you’re not planning on keeping J-Fer.

  5. LastPlace says:
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    Thanks, Rudy!

    You need to add a “Buy Rudy a daiquiri” button.

  6. Frank Kim says:
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    Good stuff. I’ve loved BaseballPress.com’s lineup page for awhile, invaluable!

    • Thanks. Yup, they do a good job over there!

  7. Steve Stevenson says:
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    Another vote of support for the baseballpress lineup page–much cleaner than the alternatives, glad you guys are partnering.

    Re: the hitter-tron, i voted to keep AB. While obviously both would be great, you can ballpark SLG based on the other available stats. There’ve been several times where i was considering a hitter, saw he was ranked low, and then realized it was because hitter-tron wasn’t predicting him to start (0.3 AB or something). Helpful to know when comparing players, especially now with the link to lineups showing us where that AB prediction may be wrong.

  8. Jack says:
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    Love the changes.

    I like to use betting odds as one of the factors in streaming for wins (yeah, I know it’s not perfect). Do you know of any site that gives odds for more than just that day’s games (i.e. 2-3 days worth of odds would be great)?

    Also, need your opinion on Friday 5×5 H2H starters, does SON rank them correctly: Kennedy @SF (Gaudin) 12, Norris v SEA(Sanders) 11.3, Doubront v NYY(Pettitte) 7.4, Nolasco v WSH (Strasburg) 2.5?

    Which leads me to my final question — SON has loved Kennedy all year. Obviously, Kennedy has pretty much ignored SON’s enthusiasm. How much of the current year goes into SON’s or ROS projections?

    • Keith

      tomscuba2004 says:
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      @Jack: You read my mind brother.

    • Thanks. No idea about odds sites. Guess it matters if Vegas publishes lines more than a day in advance (i assume not)

      Kennedy has been a hard guy to figure this year. His BB rate is up vs. 2011/2012 and his K-rate is a bit down. SoN likes games in extreme pitcher parks and SF fits that to a tee. I don’t love him but feel better w/ him @SF than Nolasco against the Nats.

      According to Steamer, the weight of current year stats varies depending upon the # of PA/IP the player has had in previous years. The weight increases as the year goes on. For a guy like Kennedy, current year is probably weighted about 25% right now and it’ll scale up near 40% by end of year. It could vary on the statistic as well based on testing historical data.

  9. Keith

    tomscuba2004 says:
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    Hey Rude, thanks for the great work and for you guys’s continued efforts to equip us. (Is ‘guys’s’ a word? I guess it is now)

    Hey man, I need a little guidance on using data. I live in Europe and, because I only get to watch one game a week if I’m lucky, I make all my roster decisions based on underlying stats. One thing that I could get better at is adjusting projections (ZIPs/steamer) to discount the preseason ranking factor that’s build in to those projections. This is especially true for pitchers. I always wait until late May to start trusting the data, and I still see Cain/Hamels types this year with projections that don’t match their preformance. I see it in Rizzo’s hittertron numbers as well.

    Could you give me a rough estimate of how much the preseason projections (or previous years statistics) affect a particular players current prognosis?

    I hope I asked that question relatively clearly. I’m kinda ripped. Thanks man.

    • You’re welcome! The ROS projections and player rater were built to minimize the work necessary in figuring out how much to discount pre-season rankings.

      The impact of in-season data increases as the season go on because there is a greater sample. I believe the ceiling on in-season impact is somewhere at 30-40% (pre-season projections usually weight previous season around there with the previous seasons scaled as well).

      For guys like Cain/Hamels, you need to see if there are major peripheral changes (k/9 and bb/9 being the two i look at). Wins and ERA are fluky – K/9 and BB/9 less so. WHIP is pretty reliable as well. Look at Cain. K-rate above 8 and a WHIP under 1.20. His ERA has been poor but the underlying data is that he’s going to be a solid 2H bet. Cole Hamels will be fine too – the peripherals are there.

      • Keith

        tomscuba2004 says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Wow, 30-40%. That’s good to know. Makes Jose Quintana and Wily Peralta (todays topics of study) a little less sexy.

        Thanks for the tips man. I suppose if K and walk rates, and velocity, are relatively solid then you can trust the talent. Makes sense.

        Let’s hope a day comes where there are enough numbers to crunch that Vegas becomes beatable.

        We all appreciate your efforts and dedication Rude. You have a good weekend man and a good second half.

        • Chuckles Tiddlesworth says:
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          @tomscuba2004: If the numbers exist, Vegas will have them first. Good luck.

            • Alky Sobrera says:
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              @Alky Sobrera:

              And if a game becomes beatable, it’ll no longer be bet-able.

  10. Chris says:
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    Rudy-would you rather have Urrutia or Moustakas for Utility spot? Need power/RBI’s.

  11. RTY says:
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    Thanks for the Baseballpress lineup recommendation. Nothing worse than realizing Wilin Rosario is sitting after it’s too late to do anything about because you didn’t check back 5 minutes before game time when Yahoo finally decided to tell you about it.

    Also, does anyone know a good source for prospect call ups? It seems like I’ve been a step behind on others this year. For example, another manager was tuned into Carlos Martinez’s promotion about 10 seconds after it happened.

  12. The Dredd Pirate says:
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    I don’t know if possible but I find that for me in my league we have pretty deep benches and my starters are pretty much locks and have the highest hitertron but for my bench and utility I have to go through and search each one at a time. It would be nice if you could like compare guys I guess or make a favorites of people you own so you could just come on the site each day and look real quick. Just a suggestion.

  13. smegma says:
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    Would you trade JUpton/Crisp for Bautista/Ibanez? 12 team H2H redraft league. Could also try to move Fowler instead of Crisp.

    • smegma says:
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      @smegma: better idea – which do u like better ROS: my Jupton/crisp for his Bautista/cuddyer or my Rizzo/iwakuma for his Bautista/cuddyer

  14. Spencer says:
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    Rudy I have looked at SON for some starts tomorrow, but who do you like better? Or would you start neither? League counts QS, IP, WHIP, ERA, K/9

    Lohse vs Mia
    Doubront vs NYY

    • Spencer says:
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      @Spencer: Or maybe even throw Hefner vs Phi in this mix?

    • Moose Out Front says:
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      @Spencer: My favorite was Norris, then Hefner. But I may choose none of the above.

  15. Clint says:
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    Interesting second half question for you: what are we to make of Chris Carpenter? He sounds like he’s coming along great and if memory serves, last he was a SP, he faired well. Is he worth a stash and what level of SP do you see him ranked the rest of the season alongside in the Steamer?

  16. BRYAN S says:
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    Would you trade Greinke for Harvey straight up in a total points ESPN league?

  17. Josh Freeman says:
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    Rudy my man, I’ve got to dump this IKE. So… Ruf or Morrison at 1B ros until Howard gets back???

    • morrison. yeah, i dropped Ike for the 2nd time on Sunday. He’s a stream-only play for now.

  18. Jim says:
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    Thanks much for the two sites….should be very helpful. Always wondered why ESPN is always ahead of Yahoo re lineups, but BaseballPress should be even better!

  19. Dani says:
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    What are your Weaver thoughts? I know Grey isn’t a fan but he is getting $15+ starts every time it seems like.

  20. Todd says:
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    Rudy- I’m in a strange pool where you drop/add at the break but you use counting stats for the entire year rather. That being said – who do you like overall? Braun,Butler,Stanton,Cespedes? thanks!

  21. Choice says:
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    In a keeper league H2H with no keeping restrictions, who holds the most value? (Pick 1)

    Jeremy Hellickson – SP
    Justin Masterson – SP
    Yovani Gallardo – SP

    Jonathan Papelbon – RP
    Ernesto Frieri – RP

    Chase Headley – 3B
    Nick Markakis – OF
    Alex Rodriguez – 3B

    Thanks in advance.

  22. The Flayed Man says:
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    Greetings…

    12 team 5×5 roto.

    My J Zimmerman for his Butler/Perkins?

    Wins and QS Do NOT count.

    Only ERA, K, Holds, Saves, WHIPs and K/BB for Pitching
    HR, R, RBI, BB, OPS, SB for hitting

    Thanks

  23. Tom says:
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    Ryu’s on the waiver wire. In 31.1 innings over last 30 days he’s only got 1 w 18 k’s 3.73/1.44. He has a 4.00 Siera. Your new ROS has him at $2.7. Do I:

    1) drop any of Kluber (-11.9), Lackey (-.8), or Nolasco (6.1) for him
    2) drop any of the 3 and stream the spot ROS (250 players rostered in 5×5 H2H)
    3) hold tight to what I got

  24. Prezz says:
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    Rudy, if you ever need someone to pick your fro all day, im your guy… Just give me a shout and ill come quicker than hitter-tron on top of a generator…

  25. pager24 says:
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    would you do zobrist wainwright harper for my kinsler hamels heyward cespedes(or heyward)
    let me know what you think!!!
    thanks

    • pager24 says:
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      @pager24: sorry or victorino

  26. Alky Sobrera says:
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    Thanks Rudy. You’re the powerful silent but deadly assassin of the razzball staffarts.

    Love the baseballpress daily lineups link. Been using their site for lineups for a while, and I agree they have a clean, and quickly updated lineup page. Very convenient.

    Thanks again for all your work!

  27. Shitbird says:
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    Nicely done @rudy gamble
    The poll is a bit confusing- are we to select the stat we want to keep or get rid of? The ‘other’ option is throwing me off a bit.

    • @Shitbird: supposed to vote on whether you want AB to stay in or replace it with SLG. ‘Other’ is if you want to remove a different column.

  28. Art Vandelay says:
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    Rudy, I’m rocking the Midsummer Classic tomorrow. Who do you like in pitching matchups:

    Weaver ($8,700)
    Doubront ($7,500)
    Kazmir ($7,300)
    Leake ($7,200)

    SON thinks Doubront, Kazmir, and Leake will be about comparable. Do you agree? I have to say that none of them inspire total confidence, so I am considering Weaver for more certainty. Any thoughts? I need to win my fortune. Thanks!

  29. jose says:
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    rudy i need a good closer… do you recomend me to trade jason heyward and mike leake for mariano rivera?

    • i don’t love the trade but if you really need saves and have a solid OF, i see the rationale. it’s been hard to keep the faith with heyward this year.

  30. Sheriff McRawDawg says:
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    Hey Rudy, would you trade Butler & Alcides for Starlin Castro in a keeper? I can only keep 10, and I’ve got Edwin, A-Gon & Dunn already at 1st/CI /Util… also, and it may just be me — but every time I try and ‘register,’ the bot/captcha thing always says I’m entering incorrectly…? And thanks for the updates — hands down the best site out there

  31. Scott says:
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    Not sure how easily it can be incorporated but weather underground (wunderground.com) shows the wind in relation to the stadium for each game. It is definitely helpful for streaming in wrigley. Vegas over/under usually tells the same story.

  32. 804NatsFan says:
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    Gotta keep the AB. Less change is better.

    Plus, with AB, AVG, and HR, then “number of hits other than HR” can be derived. With AB & & AVG & OBP, then number of walks can be approximated.

    One more request, if I may be so bold; can R HR RBI SB have one decimal place of accuracy added? I realize these are all estimates, and you can’t infer that much accuracy anyway, but there’s a big difference between 0.2 and 0.3 home runs, when 0.2 might mean .17 and 0.3 might mean 0.34.

    Thanks; razzball rocks.

  33. Hi all – sorry I couldn’t get to all the comments – life’s a little too busy these days.

    The poll results ended in favor of keeping AB vs. replacing with SLG. Will have to look for another solution to get that in there….

  34. Jack Full of Hate says:
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    why are Corbin and Moore so low?

    • @Jack Full of Hate: Corbin – his BABIP right now is .249 and he has an average at best K-rate. Moore – very good K rate with a really bad WHIP from his lack of control. His value to date is inflated b/c of Win luck.

  35. goodfold2 says:
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    where exactly is the “gameday resources” at the top of the menu? there’s 7 different headings, and under none of them that i can see are “lineups” or “matchups” listed. I would’ve thought it would go under “tools” but it’s not there. Should i just book mark this update and go here every day, or it just a bug?

      • goodfold2 says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: @<a href="#comment-thanks, that's a good spot for them.

  36. T Moore says:
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    Mr Rudi: You are amazing!!

Comments are closed.