I’ll start an article about Wilin Rosario by talking about Ramon Hernandez just to spite you. Here’s the amount of games Ramon has played by season since 2007: 106, 133, 81, 97, 91. Unlike Benjamin Button, Ramon has actually gotten older over those 5 years and will be 36 in May. So we are putting an aging catcher who can’t stay healthy behind the plate in Colorado and slapping an ADP tag of 259 on it? BTW, that’s ahead of catchers like Carlos Ruiz, A.J. Pierzinski, and Ryan Hanigan. Why do I bring up Ryan Hanigan you ask? Simple, he’s the guy that caught the other games for Cincy last year when Hurtnandez was out. He’s being slotted behind his rookie incumbent – Devin Mesoraco - in ADP despite having a similar output expectation to Ramon. None of this makes any FIP’in sense and its so mind-boggling I’ve almost completely forgotten who this post was supposed to be about.
First off, the negatives. Rosario strikes out alot and has a minimal walk-rate so he’s never going to win you a batting title. With that in mind, go look at his career ISO across all levels: those kind of power numbers make ISO horny! If J.P. Arencibia taught us anything last year, HRs are nice even when they come with a .220 average, which Wilin might saddle you with. However, J.P. is going at more than double the price at 179. We’re comparing apples to apples here – which I said while holding my tongue between my fingers – so hold out until you get what you want for half price. Right now, Rosario’s ADP is 450 at Mock Draft Central and 483 at Fleaflicker.
There’s another interesting thing you need to consider when pricing Wilin’s potential. Todd Helton is old; like ‘he’d be a great granduncle in the Appalachian Mountains’ old. Even if you think Ramon Hernandez is going to give you 130 games this year, who’s to say they will all be behind the plate? He played 30 games at 1st for the Reds in 2009. If Wilin gets you 400 ABs, something I feel he has a strong chance at getting, you’re getting 20 HRs from a player everyone felt was an afterthought going into the season. Seriously, those ADP rankings were made by a buncha apples if you ask me.