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You might be saying to yourself, “Really, is this guy trying to sell me Yonder Alonso? A no-power corner on the Padres no less?” I guess. I mean, if you want, you can save your money and invest in pogs. Or, you can hear me out. I enjoy a challenge, and it looks like I have a lot of time on my hands since, apparently, I gave up sex for lent. That doesn’t include my dakimakura though. I should note that kissing someone, excuse me, something, that doesn’t move is quite awkward. Not to mention the whole situation can get a bit messy. But that’s neither here or there. Well, it’s here, but it shouldn’t be there. Unless you want it to be. Then, you know, bewbs or GTFO.

Inexorably linked with Anthony Rizzo, Yonder Alonso will most likely be an after thought in this year’s drafts. The biggest discrepancies are pretty obvious. One guy has power, one guy doesn’t (supposedly, more on that later). One guy plays in a pretty good offensive park. One plays in the MLB version of Yosemite park. It is these two factors that mostly drive why Alonso is being drafted around 100-150 picks later. If you fancy, and trust me, you will want to match my fancy, we are now able to smack the cliché label of ‘post-hype sleeper’ on Alonso. Of which, the general definition is: a former top prospect that fails to live up to expectations, thus driving down their draft day price.

Drafted by the Reds in the first round in 2008, Alonso hit 293/370/466 in 313 minor league games. His overall skill set includes good plate discipline and gap power to all fields. To go along with the patience, he has made continual progress with pitch recognition, specifically with both breaking balls and offspeed stuff. Traded to the Padres in 2011 along with Yasmani Grandal, Edinson Volquez and Brad Boxberger for Matt Latos, Alonso took his 330/398/545 in 47 games as a Red, to the aforementioned place where hitters go to die — PetCo.

In a full season as a Friar last year, Alonso put up a very mediocre 273/348/393 in 619 plate appearances. Now, these aren’t necessarily bad numbers for a Major League corner. In fact, according to WAR, Alonso was a top-10 first baseman. While WAR is not always useful in a fantasy context, we can surmise that based on age, scouting reports, trajectory, and statistical indicators like BB%, K%, BABIP, etc., we most likely saw his floor in 2012. And that floor isn’t bad. But what makes him a useful fantasy corner? Well, it just won’t work, as a great man once said, UNLESS YOU’VE GOT POWWW-ER! So let’s tackle that issue.

To tackle that issue, we must tackle Chase Headley. Hey buddy, go easy on the thumb. More specifically, we’re going to take a look at his power surge last year, which directly correlates to Yonder Alonso. If you were to tell me at the beginning of last year, that Chase Headley was going to explode all over your face, in a good way, I would not believe your lies. I would call shenanigans, sir. And then hand you a towel. Scratch that. Based on what Headley did last year, I would just go straight to licking your face. Please be hot. As a quick synopsis, Chase Headley was once a highly thought of prospect who arrived in 2009 and put up two okay seasons, and then two-thirds of an ouchie season. That ouchie season, in 2011, was a 4 HR effort. Granted, that was only in 113 games, but his ISO stood at .110. That puts you into the Jerry Hairston Jr./Maicer Izturis danger-zone. But there were some statistical indicators here that we should have paid attention to. First, we shouldn’t have accepted that ISO level as normal, even considering the home park effect. If you go back season by season over a four year period, Headley’s ISO actually goes up. .110->.111->.131->.151. And, if you go even further back, in 186 AA and AAA games, his ISO was roughly around .250. Second, his HR/FB rate in 2011 was at an unheard rate of 4.3%. The MLB average was 9.7%. There’s hitting in PetCo. And then there’s being incredibly unlucky with your FB% combined with hitting in PetCo. Thirdly, after a particularly yuck-infested start to that season, Headley started heating up in May until injuring his finger in August. Despite only 4 HR, he managed 19 doubles and a 311/382/434 slash during that period, perhaps giving us a taste of things to come.

So let’s apply what we just learned about Chase Headley to Yonder Alonso. That involves going back to his minor league numbers for a minute. Or two. Put that stop watch away and pay attention. But if we go back, you’ll notice a power trend that continues to move up. Take, for instance, that from Double-A to Triple-A, his slugging rose from .406 to .486. His ISO also went from .139 to .190 in the same span. So, Headley had power in the minors. Alonso had power in the minors. Check. Fast foward to the 2012 season, we’ll find that Alonso had a .120 ISO… interesting. Wondering what his HR/FB was? 6.4%. The MLB average in 2012 was 11.3% Holy shiitake mushroom Batman! We are seeing parallels! Just like Chase, Yonder’s fly-balls were avoiding the fence like it had the mud butt. Next up, what were the trend lines for Alonso as 2012 progressed? Let’s do chart time, cause nothing beats chart time.

First-half, 2012

AVG HR R RBI
.259 2 23 18

Second-half, 2012

AVG HR R RBI
.286 7 24 44

So, as you can see, there is an upward trend occurring. Now, I’m not saying that Yonder Alonso will have a 2012 Chase Headley type season. But both of them shared the same miserable fly ball luck, and to a certain extent, shared a good pedigree, and also share the same FB madness. In terms of Alonso’s skill set, there is a definite amount of upside yet to be tapped into. But let’s not kid ourselves, he doesn’t have the raw power you want at 1B, or at any corner or utility position in general. Yes, chicks dig the long ball. Dudes dig the long ball. Chicks that have turned into dudes and vice versa dig the long ball. I think. But while he doesn’t possess the raw power tool, or brute power as some call it, he does have outstanding bat speed that can create the same result as natural strength does. You remember when I said that there’s nothing better than charts? I lied. There is. Behold, my GIF magic will be conjured again for your satisfaction.

 Pitcher: “You are no match for my Ion Cannon!”

Yonder: “Pfffft! I will bash your ovaries in such a manner!”

 

Pitcher: ” :’( “

The first GIF features our protagonist showing his patient eye, waiting for the curve on the inside part of the plate, and then using his bat speed to power the breaking pitch out of the park. The second GIF is another example of his quick-wrist action. Vance Worley does an admirable job trying to sneak an inside fastball to the left-handed Alonso. More often than not, this type of pitch and location will lead to a strike-out, or the hitter getting jammed and creating weak contact on the ground or in the air. But again, Alonso’s bat speed makes up for that, and he’s able to turn on the pitch and launch it to the moon. So, as you can see, while he doesn’t have natural power per se, he has enough bat-speed to make up for that.

One thing to note is that he actually hit better at PetCo than he did on the road. His home slash was 276/362/398 while his road slash was 271/334/389. While Alonso’s home run total on the road was double than at home (6-3), the slugging was higher at PetCo. What does that tell us? Well, unlike most of his compadres (meaning times two!), including Chase Headley, Alonso doesn’t have significant splits at his carnivorous park. No, there aren’t any dinosaurs roaming around PetCo, which is the first thing I thought of when typing ‘carnivorous’. Well, I mean, there might be dead ones underground and stuff, but you know what I mean. Or you don’t, and that aside just wasted 30-seconds of your life. My bad. Maybe next time I’ll just use ‘cavernous’ and call it a day.

Really quick, as I covered in Deep Impact: Undervalued, Will Venable could get help from the fences moving in. Yonder Alonso could also benefit, though, unlike Venable, is more likely to take advantage of  the left-center alley fence instead of the right-center fence, both of which are coming in. Just to add context, if those new dimensions existed last year, Alonso would have hit two more homeruns. Temper your expectations, of course, but there will be some affect.

The ingredients are there. The trends are there. The only thing left is for Alonso to go out and do it. And I think it happens this year. I know a lot of you drafted him as an afterthought, so I expect you to all come back next year and pay homage to the jaywrong when Yonder goes out and acts like gangbusters. Or at least start a petition to have Grey name me jayright. 2013 Projection: 89/24/72/.309/2.

 

  1. Bourne says:
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    Been waiting for you all day! That’d be quite the stat line for my FA pickup of the drop I drafted last round. The 2 hr fence boost could be more because yankees know how to aim so padres should too. I also like seeing those split charts, which are more relevant for a young prospect growing into new shoes. I actually grabbed Lind in one league and alanso in the other.

    This is exciting when we can talk about padres offensive weapons again!

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Bourne: Wow, are you stalking me? If you are, please bring animal ear hats.

      I’m higher on Alonso then I am on Lind.

      And yes, while the fences moving in should help, the true offensive oomph will come from regression and the younger guys fulfilling their potential. In this case, Yonder fits both labels.

  2. mcBlunty says:
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    had my first draft of the season last night, 7 player keeper league (k next to name), 11×11 cat league, what do you think, where do i need to upgrade, i am thiking 3B is a need

    s perez
    pujols – k
    c utley
    jose reyes – k
    plouffe
    j hamilton – k
    d jennings
    b gardner
    j reddick
    espinosa
    berkman (bench)
    l cain (bench)

    cc sabathia – k
    m cain – k
    medlen – k
    chapman – k
    jim johnson
    a reed
    w miley
    b mccarthy
    parnell
    marmol
    doubront
    c tillman
    t milone

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @mcBlunty: Yeah, 3B needs work. Maybe one more ‘good’ pitcher. But I like your offense. Maybe see if Cain might get you a 3B, and Plouffe might get you a hedge at 2B for Utley.

      Otherwise, the team will compete, but you’ll have to keep close eye on your waivers for opportunities.

  3. JoeG says:
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    Is J.Gomes worth a bench spot/ spot start in a 13 team mixed roto league with Daily moves? Or is S.Smith,Helton,L.Scott,Salty,Parmelee, Bernadina a better choice. I could use a little back up power.

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @JoeG: Yeah, in a 13-team, he’s useful.

      I like Helton, but more for OBP leagues.

  4. gamebreakers says:
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    Nice reference to back to the future, my over the internet, most trusted advice-giving comPadre

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @gamebreakers: Thanks! I only take from the greats.

  5. RockyColavito says:
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    Ha, I drafted Yonder again this year, in the 17th Round (219). Any thoughts on this squad?

    13 team league, 5×5 roto with OBP instead of AVG, three OF, one UTIL, one C, eight pitchers of any kind. three keepers per team at round drafted last year, snake draft, I had 11th pick. Here’s my team by round drafted, draft number in parenthesis:

    1. (11) Prince Fielder (Det – 1B) (KEEPER)
    2. (16) Jose Bautista (Tor – OF)
    3. (37) Jacoby Ellsbury (Bos – OF)
    4. (42) Aramis Ramirez (Mil – 3B)
    5. (63) Zack Greinke (LAD – P)
    6. (68) Alex Gordon (KC – OF)
    7. (89) Martin Prado (Ari – 2B,3B,SS,OF)
    8. (94) Rickie Weeks (Mil – 2B)
    9. (115) Ian Kennedy (Ari – P)
    10. (120) Johnny Cueto (Cin – P) (KEEPER)
    11. (141) Salvador Perez (KC – C)
    12. (146) Jason Grilli (Pit – P)
    13. (167) Brandon League (LAD – P)
    14. (172) Starling Marte (Pit – OF)
    15. (193) Torii Hunter (Det – OF)
    16. (198) Shelby Miller (StL – P)
    17. (219) Yonder Alonso (SD – 1B)
    18. (224) Chris Sale (CWS – P) (KEEPER)
    19. (245) Tim Hudson (Atl – P)
    20. (250) Oscar Taveras (StL – OF)
    21. (271) Chris Carter (Hou – 1B)
    22. (276) Drew Stubbs (Cle – OF)
    23. (297) Kyuji Fujikawa (CHC- P)

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @RockyColavito: Likes- JoeyBats, Alonso, Greinke, Carter

      Dislikes: Ellsbury… maybe. League, Prado… but the SS eligibility is interesting.

      Honestly, its a pretty good draft. A lot of value in a lot of places.

      • RockyColavito says:
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        @jaywrong: @jaywrong:

        Thank you. We shall see.

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @RockyColavito: Indeed. No reason to be down. But no reason to be super up. That’s usually a successful draft.

  6. Fish says:
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    Hey Grey,

    What do you think about giving up Medlen for Matt Moore?

    Standard Yahoo + K/9 and QS

    Thanks.

    • Tio says:
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      @Fish:

      Tough call as I have both pitchers similarly ranked. To me, we have seen more from Moore – has been more consistent and is more likely to be a true ace this year. With Medlen, the Braves are a better squad but he has only shown us a small sample size (138 IP). Until a guy has put up a 200 ip campaign, I am hesitant to annoint him. This would come down to personal preference IMO because there are valid arguments both ways.

  7. uncdrew says:
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    Woo Hoo, it’s Padre day here!

    Oh, wait…

    • Tio says:
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      @uncdrew:

      No kidding… The Padres aren’t getting this much love in San Diego.

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @uncdrew: Yeah, 1 out of 365 ain’t bad.

      • Tio says:
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        @jaywrong:

        You’d think Tony Gwynn was still eating cheeseburgers in the clubhouse and Eric Show was still on the hill with all of the excitement.

        If this is what Yonder Alonso does to the board, what happens if they actually start winning?

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @Tio: I will phantom orgasm.

  8. harkrider says:
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    My current team in a 5×5, 10 team roto league.
    C-Perez
    1B-Votto
    2B-Espinosa
    SS-Castro
    3B-Chisenhall
    OF-Bruce, Heyward, Beltran, Gordon
    UTIL-Pujols, Goldy
    Bench-Rutledge, Aoki
    SP-Grienke, Scherzer, Samardjiza, Parker, Minor
    RP-Marmol, Wilhelmsen, Romo, Holland, Clippard, Boggs

    We have a 150 starts limit, so I use RP’s in all my slots except where I need a SP.

    My question: Should I try to trade Pujols for Longoria, Wright, or Beltre? I’m thinking that I have enough 1B and then a fill in for my UTIL spot to upgrade my 3B. Thoughts?

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @harkrider: I’d do Pujols for Longoria, but probably not for Wright. Maybe for Beltre. Its pretty iffy on all three.

      I actually agree with your approach. But if this is a redraft or you are going for it, I’d rather trade Goldy for a 3B. I’m not too high on him. Chisenhall should not be starting for you.

    • Tio says:
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      @harkrider:

      I would test the waters to see what you could get back. Pujols or Votto should get you a stud 3B plus another solid piece at minimum. If you can’t get a stud coming back, I would wait it out as there is always 3B value on the wire, especially in a 10 team league.

  9. G Money says:
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    Looking for your thoughts on my team jaywrong. very different league then most. 12 team H2H weekly scoring each category, 8×8 AVG, HR, R, RBI, TB, SB, H, BB x ERA, WHIP, W, L, IP, K/9, CG, SV – Auction Draft 260$ budget 25 slots, 4 OF, CI, UT and 5SP (must be starting that week) 2 RP (cannot be a starter)

    (first 4 players were keepers from last year with hamilton being my franchise at a 20% discount)
    CLEVELAND STEAMERS
    7 Andrew McCutchen, Pit OF K $33
    19 Billy Butler, KC 1B K $10
    31 Edwin Encarnacion, Tor 1B K $8
    43 Josh Hamilton, LAA OF K $22
    55 Chase Headley, SD 3B $14
    57 Adrian Gonzalez, LAD 1B $36
    63 Cliff Lee, Phi SP $33
    97 Zack Greinke, LAD SP $18
    150 Alcides Escobar, KC SS $5
    158 Jonathon Niese, NYM SP $7
    181 Brett Gardner, NYY OF $8
    189 Marco Estrada, Mil SP $12
    190 Corey Hart*, Mil 1B $10
    194 Chris Davis, Bal 1B $9
    198 Phil Hughes, NYY SP $2
    201 Tim Hudson, Atl SP $5
    207 Huston Street, SD RP $7
    212 Dexter Fowler, Col OF $3
    216 Trevor Cahill, Ari SP $2
    223 Jedd Gyorko, SD 2B $5
    229 Brian McCann*, Atl C $3
    246 Brandon McCarthy, Ari SP $1
    257 Daniel Hudson*, Ari SP $1
    260 Brandon Beachy*, Atl SP $4
    275 Tom Wilhelmsen, Sea RP $2

    Side note we can keep 4 players + our franchise player but only 1 player can be over $20 and inflation is $5 per year (waived 1st year for under $20 guys) my team is a MASH unit at the moment I do know that. Loved the Ryu post btw, tried to get him but ran out of spots and went with Beachy and Hudson (tommy john) for cheap comebacks and next season value possibly. Thanks!

    -G Money-

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @G Money: Love E5 at that price. I see value in Butler, even if I’m not to high on him. I like Gardner, Niese, Cahill, Gyorko… crazy man, great value at a lot of places, and that’s the name of the game in a league like this.

      I would try to trade AGonzo, shed that salary. But I like this team.

  10. G Money says:
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    sorry this makes it easier to read with slotted expected starters:

    C-Brian McCann*, Atl C $3
    1B- Billy Butler, KC 1B K $10
    2B- Jedd Gyorko, SD 2B $5
    SS- Alcides Escobar, KC SS $5
    3B- Chase Headley, SD 3B $14
    CI- Edwin Encarnacion, Tor 1B K $8
    OF- Josh Hamilton, LAA OF K $22
    OF- Andrew McCutchen, Pit OF K $33
    OF- Brett Gardner, NYY OF $8
    OF – Chris Davis, Bal 1B $9
    UT- Adrian Gonzalez, LAD 1B $36
    SP- Cliff Lee, Phi SP $33
    SP- Zack Greinke, LAD SP $18
    SP- Jonathon Niese, NYM SP $7
    SP- Marco Estrada, Mil SP $12
    SP- Brandon McCarthy, Ari SP $1
    RP- Huston Street, SD RP $7
    RP- Tom Wilhelmsen, Sea RP $2

    Bench – Corey Hart*, Mil 1B/OF $10
    Bench- JP Arencibia Tor, C, Waivers
    Bench – Jeff Keppinger 3B
    Bench – Phil Hughes, NYY SP $2
    Bench Tim Hudson, Atl SP $5
    Bench – Trevor Cahill, Ari SP $2
    Bench- Daniel Hudson*, Ari SP $1
    Bench- Brandon Beachy*, Atl SP $4

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @G Money: Same is true of what I said. I am in a couple advanced leagues that use TB as cat. Love it, because if you do your research, you can be a ninja.

      Like I aid, maybe move Gonzo to upgrade your OF and slot Davis to the UT. But this team should do well.

  11. The Guru says:
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    Love the Padres spring enthusiasm. Are you wearing an Eric Show jersey? When it comes to Alonso (while you make quite the case) the JayWrong doth protest too much, methinks. Theres’s nothing wrong with a little man-crushing on a hometown favorite in March, just don’t do it in May. However, Alfonso Ribeiro is available these days . He could play first if you need him or maybe he could officiate Grey’s wedding. He’s gotta be cheaper than Jackie Mason.

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @The Guru: Hah! Hope springs eternal youth.

      I’m higher on Yonder than most, no doubt. But I think there’s enough there to, at the very least, make him fantasy relevant. People used to go, blah on LaRoche, but with some power, he’s useful depending on context.

  12. mike says:
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    Better SP to take a flier on WIly Peralta or Felix Doubront?

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @mike: I like Peralta, even though Miller can get HR happy. If the expectations are similar, always go with the NL choice, or so I say in most cases.

  13. T Moore says:
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    Mr. Jay Wrong: I’m currently in trouble on Mr. Gray’s site (Long Story and of my own doing )… So, I’m extra happier than I would have been at seeing another of your kinky threads posted up…

    Alonso is definitely a late bitch’n set to catch once the rest of the FBB surf-Nazis have paddled in; packed up their gear and gone home to mommy for tatter-tots, ketchup and fish sticks…

    Poor Yonder (Such a snappy and cute name too)… He is getting little love anywhere… Mr. Gray absolutely loathes him – I’m assuming so anyways – after all the terrible things he has said publically about our poor Yonder…

    Much like him is B. Moss in Oakland… Who could see well over 500 ABs in Oakland this year… They are talking of keeping Freiman as a back up… Yeah, that Freiman – the one few outside of SD have ever heard of or maybe ever will… Moss quals at OF… (((Same as Morrison of the Fish – his knee injury scaring me more everyday))…

    One or more of these guys is coming up huge this year IMO… I do like the OF the multi. pos. aspects of the latter 2 mentioned as I tend to C.I. up early by 12th round … Making adding Yonder late harder for me…

    Staying on the West Coast… Do you see any hope for Smoak???… He is SO forgotten… Think, he should be on FBB surfers tide tables and surf reports too… He could be ready for a breakout too… ABs could be an issue there unless he REALLY breaks out…

    Keep’m coming and keep’m kinky… HANG TEN MAN!!!!

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @T Moore: T Moore, marry me!

      I jumped off the Morrison band wagon a year ago… just not coming together. Big shucks too.

      Smoak… he will be better this year, but average at best. I like Moss and think he can do what Reddick can, just cheaper on the board.

      And yes, Grey and I disagree on a lot of things. But I think that’s good for the site. A coin wouldn’t be worth anything if it had just one side. Or, I don’t know, it might. Maybe if its a gold coin and you melt it. But if you melted one of us, that would hurt. Unless it was our heart. Then it would be great until the divorce and custody battles soon thereafter.

      I remember Freiman, I thought Houston had him as a Rule V and then gave him back? He reminds me of Jason Botts.

  14. gareth says:
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    Please rate in order the following – aj burnett, clay buchholz, jaime garcia, trevor cahill, jeremy hellickson. I have 3 of these on my team and the other 2 are on the wire. I want the best 3 on my team. Wglho woukd you choosr and why?

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @gareth: Hmm. Garcia/Cahill/Burnett/Hellboy and I’m not even going to rank Buchholz.

      You could flip Burnett and Hellboy. Garcia has a better environment than Cahill.

  15. Arc Angel says:
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    AL ONLY LEAGUE Trade Jesus Montero/Josh Reddick for Alex Avila/Desmond Jennings in 5×5 H2H?

    I have Salvador Perez already with Jesus as back up. Should I give that up to upgrade from Reddick to Jennings?

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Arc Angel: Well, it depends if you can deal with less homeruns. If you need the speed, that’s basically what your switching for. Its not so much an upgrade in the AVG/OBP cats.

      I’m okay with the deal.

      For what it’s worth, I think Montero does measurably better this year. Not totally sold on Avila rebounding completely. Salvador is nice to have though.

  16. gareth says:
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    Sorry. My smartphone keyboard is on the blink right now.

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @gareth: Did something bad happen I’m not aware of?

  17. ToMammaSoUggla says:
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    I don’t know if I believe in Kemp this year. Thinking of accepting an offer to move him for Trout straight up. Anyone else feel the same way? 12-team league, 6×6 H2H

    See any room for improvement?

    Bats
    Wilin Rosario
    Billy Butler
    Aaron Hill
    Mike Moustakas
    Ian Desmond
    Matt Kemp
    Giancarlo Stanton
    Jason Heyward
    Carl Crawford
    Domonic Brown
    Carlos Gomez

    SP
    Madison Bumgarner
    Jeremy Hellickson
    Alex Cobb
    Marco Estrada
    Julio Teheran

    CP
    Bobby Parnell
    Bruce Rondon

    Bench
    Chase Headley
    Hanley Ramirez
    Hyun-Jin Ryu
    Jaime Garcia
    Steve Cishek

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @ToMammaSoUggla: Yes, I would trade Kemp for Trout yesterday.

      I would focus on, err, it looks okay. No obvious weaknesses. You might need a MI hedge, I’m expecting regression for both Desmond and Hill. I’m not sold on Carl Crawford being more than a 10/10 at this point. And you might need to closer hunt, Rondon would make me nervous. But its a good core.

      I think you’re fine.

      • YoMommaSoUggla says:
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        @jaywrong: Yeah, Trouts burger binges and his newly acquired double-chin have me a little nervous, I guess not as nervous as Kemps Surgically repaired shoulder.

        And I know, I’m leaning heavily on something close to repeat performances of my INFs, and hoping to my diety of choice that Crawford can remeber how to steal 50 bases like he did just a couple of years ago. Thanks for the review.

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @YoMommaSoUggla: I personally think his weight is a non-issue.

          And anytime!

  18. Tony says:
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    ha so from those two video clips, we know Yonder can mash a belt high mistake…..

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Tony: Indeed.

      Also, they show a short lift, quick hands, good wrist action… and are good examples of his bat speed. Which was the goal of those clips.

  19. stlshawgo says:
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    I was offered Jordan Zimmerman and Bumgarner for Adam Jones and Milone. My pitching is pretty weak, as you can see below. At the time of the draft, I was pretty confident that Aroldis was going to be a starter this year.

    I’m thinking about taking this offer. He also has Medlen that I could probably ask him to substitute for one of the two. What do you think??

    1. (1) Miguel Cabrera 3B
    2. (24) Adam Jones OF
    3. (25) Jose Reyes SS
    4. (48) Paul Goldschmidt 1B
    5. (49) B.J. Upton OF
    6. (72) Aroldis Chapman RP
    7. (73) Max Scherzer SP
    8. (96) Ike Davis 1B
    9. (97) Shin-Soo Choo OF
    10. (120) Sergio Romo RP
    11. (121) Huston Street RP
    12. (144) Mike Napoli C,1B
    13. (145) Josh Rutledge 2B,SS
    14. (168) Glen Perkins RP
    15. (169) Phil Hughes SP
    16. (192) Todd Frazier 1B,3B,OF
    17. (193) Hyun-Jin Ryu SP
    18. (216) Emilio Bonifacio 2B,OF
    19. (217) Kenley Jansen RP
    20. (240) Tommy Milone SP
    21. (241) Felix Doubront SP
    22. (264) Shelby Miller RP
    23. (265) Chris Carter 1B

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’d take the as presented and just trade a starter for an outfielder if you need it…

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @stlshawgo: I agree.

      But if that’s the deal that gets it done, I’m okay with it.

      • stlshawgo says:
        (link)

        @jaywrong:

        thank you both!

  20. Snake Hips says:
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    What do you think of these guys?

    10-Team Keeper, H2H, Points
     
    C - Sal Perez
    1B – Pujols (K)
    2B - Rutledge
    3B – Lawrie (K)
    SS - Segura
    MI – Boneface
    CI – Goldy
    OF – Kemp (K)
    OF – Holliday
    OF – Harper (K)
    OF – Pence
    UTIL – Ortiz
    UTIL – Craig (K)

    BN – Machado
      
    SP – MadMax
    SP – Halladay
    RP – Chapman
    RP – Motte
    P – Niese
    P – Parker
    P – Lester
    P – Wilhelmsen

    BN- Teheren
    BN- Hammel
    BN- Ryu
    BN- Hughes

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @Snake Hips: I like the team. Offense is pretty neato too.

  21. Anthony says:
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    @Jaywrong: When does the streamonator kick in? Im curious to see what the scores are for harrison/norris

    • TBD – at least need probable pitchers to be confirmed. Probably up and running by April 8th.

  22. GMoney says:
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    @jaywrong: thanks a lot I am of course bias so I really do like my team also. That being said I am kind of a razzball disciple so you see the players on my team you, grey, Smokey, Rudy and sky pimp. There is so much pitching late that my only regret is not buying one more big bat. Also I expect good things from agon so I am not looking for 30 hrs , 25 is fine cause I am going to be hard to beat in avg, hits and tb each week. My thought was since 1b and CI is thin (since so many teams kept 1b) I could easily move him. Some teams are starting Pedro Alvarez or nick swisher at CI or 1b. Ewwwww I know it seems obvious but my theory in an auction draft is I am trying to accomplish two things maximize value and minimize risk. Sometimes these can be accomplished all at once other times you have to know the times when the draft dictates value. Also I like a little risk vs reward so grienke at half his value in my league if healthy $18 and headley for about $12-15 discount is worth it to me. Gotta take chances when you don’t blow the bank to do it. You should do an article in auction risk and value.

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
      (link)

      @GMoney: I hear ya on everything. But I do like Swish as a 4/5 OF, so don’t feel too bad.

      And yeah, always gotta find balance in a strategy.

      That’s a good idea, I’ll think about it for next off-season.

  23. Anthony says:
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    April 8th EEK

  24. Adam says:
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    Would you give up Tehran for Yonder in an NL only 7×7 roto league? Non-keeper and currently working with Garrett Jones at CI.

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      Hmmm. If you can afford losing the pitching… but even in a Non-keeper, Teheran should have higher value than Alonso right now. Anyway to get more value?

  25. EB says:
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    I’m drafting Saturday. As the time comes I keep changing my strategy. That’s not a good sign for my draft– I feel a lot better when I’m confident in my plan (and my teams do better too).

    So my league has six keepers, 12 teams, it is an ops league with total bases as a stat too.

    I am keeping Wright, Goldschmidt, Cespedes, Craig, Gordon and Sale. The best players potentially available for my pick 6 overall are Chapman, Aaron Hill, Gio Gonzalez, Ben Zobrist and RA Dickey… Greinke and Medlen are out there too but I grudgingly would prefer Dickey.

    So what do I do? Go pitcher or fill 2b. Zobrist has ss eligibilty and the position is very thin (I don’t think he will be there for me?). Is he a no brainer pick of he is?

    I’m tempted to go cheap at middle infield and take Chapman and then two starters with my two second rounders.

    Chapman I feel is more predictable than any starter and Hill is not lock either.

    Whaddya think?

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
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      @EB: Well, first, I would have tried to trade Sale. His arm scares me.

      The rest of your keepers, I do like, though I’m not as high on Goldy as most. I would either go Gio or Dickey to be honest. I’d want another ace to throw in there. I’m leaning Gio here. Personally, I usually punt my MI’s to the back end anyhow, if that makes you feel better going cheap.

      The best laid plans can still get wrecked. Just go into the draft with a flexible plan, and don’t be afraid to change things up if adjusting is needed.

      • EB says:
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        @jaywrong: Well I could keep Greinke instead but his arm scares me more than Sale’s. I could keep Papelbon or Jordan Zimmerman instead but I think I need to hope for the best from Sale.

        Gio makes a lot of sense. Aside from Smardzja I’m not crazy about many starters outside the top 100 picks. I could go Gio, another starter, Melky Cabrera or Shin Soo or Austin Jackson with pick 21 (technically 93 overall).

        Then I target Howie Kendrick and Aybar for middle infield.

        Thanks for the help.

        • Jay

          jaywrong says:
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          @EB: Sale is still a good chip to trade while his value is high as well.

          And I love the Shark this year.

          And anytime!

  26. jjj says:
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    Just was offered a trade…Sale, Wainwright and Hosmer for Mccutchen, Madson and Beachy. I have 4 closers (including madson) b/c I drafted chapman as a starter and now he is closing.
    14 team league with 15 offensive players and 10 P starting at alltimes, no bench. Should I do this trade??

    • Jay

      jaywrong says:
      (link)

      @jjj: I don’t like Sale, but I’d do it. I think Wainwright and Hosmer make up for the gap of Cutch. Not a fan of Beachy at all.

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