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As the world continues to be hyper about “what have you done for me lately,” fantasy baseball owners rejoice. It’s nice when your opponents look at 2011’s stats and think they are gospel because then guys who had bad years last year fall through the cracks. Even better if the guys between the cracks are in the form of hard throwing 200-K capable pitchers with great names. On draft day, saying Ubaldo Jimenez should give you an immense amount of joy. It’s a fun name to say, it’s hard to mess up, you can throw a lot of accents in it and most people will look at his 2011 stats and think you’re crazy for drafting him.

Sure, his 4.68 ERA and 1.40 WHIP were unpalatable. But, really, his year wasn’t that different (aside from teenager-level negative noise) from his previous seasons.

In 2009, he struck out 8.17 batters per nine innings, walked 3.51 batters per nine and had .280 BABIP and a 73.5% strand rate.

In 2010, Jimenez struck out 8.69 batters per nine innings, walked 3.74 batters per nine, and had a .271 BABIP and a 76.5% strand rate.

In 2011, he stuck out 8.60 batters per nine innings, walked 3.73 batters per nine, and had a .314 BABIP and a 65% strand rate.

From 2009-2011, Jimenez averaged a 3.63 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and 197 K’s. During that time frame, his 44 wins are tied for seventh most and his 592 K’s are 13th most.

If you want someone to blame for 2011, pick a spike in his HR/FB rate, a criminal strand rate and increased BABIP. In addition, for whatever reason, Jimenez relied on his changeup more than ever. This resulted in a big decline in swinging strikes and an uptick in contact. Jimenez will get his mojo back and figure out he needs to bring his slider and curve more often in 2012.

Certainly, he wasn’t as good as he was in 2010, but is nowhere near as bad as he was in 2011. Expect a 3.50-3.75 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 190+ K’s in 2012.

It’s ludicrous that Jimenez is being drafted after the likes of Cory Luebke, Tim Hudson, Matt Moore, Adam Wainwright, Johnny Cueto, Yu Darvish, Jordan Zimmerman, Jeremy Hellickson and many others.

Jimenez could be the best value at starting pitcher in 2012.

  1. Albert Lang

    Albert Lang says:
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    Hey all, thanks for reading on a busy day, St. Paddys + NCAA tourney? I know you guys got drafts going on though, so let’s talk fantasy baseball, sprinkle in some NCAA (who has two thumbs and Xavier in the sweet 16?) and drinking stories?

    It’s all fair game and I’ll answer any question ya pose!

    • Former Skeptic says:
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      @Albert Lang, Ubaldo is toast FYI

  2. Boston Fans Are Stoopid says:
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    Are you concerned that Jimenez’ declined ratios correlate with a nearly 4 mile per hour drop in velocity on his fastball? His velocity has been even lower in spring games, routinely around 90 MPH. I worry that he may have a lingering injury and will be shut down at some point.

    • Albert Lang

      Albert Lang says:
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      @Boston Fans Are Stoopid, I dont see a near 4 MPH drop in velocity, his average FB velo is 95.2, it was 93.5 last season. Certainly he posted 96.1 from 2009-2010, however his 2011 rate stats were similar to his 2009-2010. K/9 was nearly identical, as were his walk rates. Really he is suffering from out performing his peripheries in 2010 and underperforming in 2011, in 2012, he can easily marry the difference and be a top pitcher.

      • Boston Fans Are Stoopid says:
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        @Albert Lang, You’re right, not quite 4 MPH but his velocity has declined some. Jimenez is certainly worth a shot as a sleeper considering where he is being drafted. There was once a time not too long ago I would make it a point to watch games he pitched in because he was that good. However, for full disclosure I have an unhealthy infatuation with Cory Luebke and would probably go that route given the choice between the two.

        • Albert Lang

          Albert Lang says:
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          @Boston Fans Are Stoopid, Yeah, i just dont think a slight decline (certainly close to a margin of error) accounted for the batted ball stuff. Really, I think he just threw his change way too much. Maybe he was worried about injuries (and certainly that’s a red flag) but I dont think that dip is a death nail.

          In full disclosure, Jimenez has been one of my favorite pitchers recently and I’ve had as a sleeper pretty frequently, so cant avoid my own bias.

          I like Luebke, but i need to see him sustain that velocity he had over a full season. He could end up being a solid value, but he’s getting a lot of pub and shooting up drafts (at least fantasy baseball writer drafts)

          • Luke says:
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            @Albert Lang, Oh, the dreaded death nail. Is that anything like a death knell?

            • Albert Lang

              Albert Lang says:
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              @Luke, completely different! :-).

  3. chata says:
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    have you been drinking , Albert ?

    you must be outcho mind , if you’re picking ubaldo before yu .

    • Albert Lang

      Albert Lang says:
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      @chata, Not drinking….i’ll take a known quantity all day over an unknown, especially if it’s a pitcher in Texas

      • Jay29 says:
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        @Albert Lang, so what other “known quantities” would you take over Yu Darvish? Derek Lowe? RA Dickey? I recognize that you can just fill your staff with other pitchers with a higher downside, but at some point down the SP rankings it’d be dumb not to take Yu.

        • Albert Lang

          Albert Lang says:
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          @Jay29, Well yeah, you wouldnt take waiver fodder with no upside over Darvish. People i would take over Yu:
          Garza, Cueto, Gio, Beachy, Zimmermann, Anibal, Marcum (if healthy), Scherzer, Ervin Santana, Ubaldo, Holland, Wandy Rodriguez, Morrow, and others.

          I’d strongly consider based on team make-up: Garcia, Luebke, Kuroda, Cahill, Danks, Chacin, Colby Lewis, McCarthy, Buchholz, Lilly, Bud NOrris, Jonathan Sanchez, Billingsley, Edwin Jackson, Nolasco, Dempster, Henderson Alvarez,

        • Tony says:
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          @Jay29, you really have faith in YU? i mean i wouldn’t call someone out on a guy like UBALDO who’s done SOMETHING in mlb and shown SOME glimmer of eliteness, YU has done nothing and many many foreign pitchers/athletes have came over and done squat, their talents just dont translate in the “real” bigs….

          I would not invest in YU, especially not in the 8-10th ish round where he goes..

          • Jay29 says:
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            @Tony, If you look back at my comment you’ll notice I never said I liked YU more than UBALDO. I just took issue with the “known quantities” phrase, as it was very inexact. Just wanted Albert to clarify with some context (i.e. other established pitchers).

            Regardless, I happen to like Yu a little bit more than Ubaldo, but only a couple spots higher or $1-$2 more. I think Ubaldo can be great but I’m guessing he’ll have a high WHIP and a mediocre W total for Cleveland. Yu could end up anywhere on the spectrum but I like his upside more than Ubaldo’s and even average pitchers can get 15 Ws with that Texas offense supporting them.

  4. J!m Future says:
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    Absolutely. Jiminez is by far my favorite SP to draft this year – at his ADP, you’re getting a guy people were drafting as a #1 starter last year as your #4. The potential profit far outweighs the risk.

    • Albert Lang

      Albert Lang says:
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      @J!m Future, My argument in a nutshell. you should write my synopses!!! There’s a good theory out there that targeting players who, for whatever reasons, performed well below expectations the previous year nets huge fantasy gains. I think the data is a tad inconclusive on this, but it’s certainly an interesting way to approach player values. Certainly basing decisions on just one year, is usually bad for your squad.

      • JoeC says:
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        @Albert Lang, I think there’s merit in that idea, but I have to diverge from you on this piece. I think Ubaldo is done-zo.

        I’m not sure what it is exactly. Perhaps he never really knew where the ball was going but he had that elite speed that compensates for that. Now that the elite speed is dissipating, batters are starting to square him up.

        If he throws up a 1.27 WHIP, I will eat a side of corned beef (and I *hate* corned beef!). :)

        • @JoeC, I’ve meant to dig into the data on the strategy of targeting last year’s busts but just havent had the time (silly NCAA tournament + nice weather + day job).

          I’ve never seen people so widely split on a player as Ubaldo. Some think this piece was a no-brainer and others find Ubaldo as dead-to-me. A lot depends on whether the velocity is gone (and reports from spring training suggest he’s sitting at 91 MPHs) and whether he can still be effective at that diminished velocity. I really think if he gets back to his breaking pitches he’ll be fine, but we shall see if that’s the culprit or if it’s velocity. Pitchers do regain velo, so it’s not out-of-the-question, but do understand your and others point of view.

          I’d happily eat the corned beef for you (although I havent had the stuff in a really long time, i do like it).

          • JoeC says:
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            @Albert, I think it’s true that he’ll have to rely more on his secondary pitches if his fastball speed doesn’t return (ala Lincecum). The question is: can he consistently throw his secondary pitches for strikes? And, can he change himself from strictly a power pitcher to a more “crafty” type of pitcher? I have my doubts.

            I don’t have much faith in the staff of the Indians to be able to coach him up. Who have they developed in recent years? I guess Masterson, but most of his development was with Boston. Besides that, the cupboards pretty bare.

            As with everything, we will see who is right and who is wrong in their prognastication. What worries me is that his Spring results are right in line with his results last year: dude just gettin’ tagged. At least with Liriano, who is also a favorite bounceback candidate, we see *some* signs of recovery.

            How in the world could *anyone* enjoy corned beef? :)

            • @JoeC, Liriano always looks good when he’s healthy, it’s that pesky health thing i worry about. Ubaldo will get the innings, but he has to provide value for that to matter, obviously.

              I love salt, the saltier the better….that must be why i love corned beef…god i love salt.

              • JoeC says:
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                @Albert,
                Hey, Albert… what are your feelings on salt? I don’t think I’m clear there.

                • @JoeC, Just give me a package of salt on a cool summer day and an Ubaldo start and I’m set! :-).

                  Also had way too much tea yesterday

  5. Son of a Beachy says:
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    How worried are you about Wright’s injury? I’ve seen crazy reactions already to it… Enough that I’m worried and thinking about trading him away in a keep 14 each year keeper league…What kind of guys should I be targeting, value-wise in return for him? (Regardless of position)

    • Albert Lang

      Albert Lang says:
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      @Son of a Beachy, Its not necessarily just the injury, but the fact that he’s on the Mets — we’ve seen them mishandle or misdiagnose so many injuries and players come back significantly later than originally thought that it gives pause. There’s a legitimate chance he’s more hurt than we know and could miss more time.

      That said, it’s hard to move him. Do you really want to unload in your type of league for $0.80 on the dollar? I’d try to trade him but in a slight sort of way, not overtly just announce that you want to move him. Go to leaguemates that liked him in the past and go to others with top 20 players they might not be fans of and start the conversation. If you could get a McCutchen-type I’d pull the trigger immediately.

      • chata says:
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        @Albert Lang,

        the guy’s trying to play through the same injury that
        zimmerman had .
        eventually , zimerman decided that the pain was too much
        and had the operation .
        it cost him 60 games .

        a cutch-type ??
        no one is that dumb .

        if you think that , at his age , there will be some value going forward
        (think 2013-2014) , then sit on him ,
        otherwise , take any able body with a full-time job .

        • Albert Lang

          Albert Lang says:
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          @chata, You never know what someone is willing to give for a player, why not go after the Cutch’s and Beltre’s of the world. I’d probably take a top 40 player for him unless my team was weak in 2012.

          • Son of a Beachy says:
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            @Albert Lang, I have no problem sitting on Wright if need be for future purposes…I’ve built my roster mainly around Pujols and CarGo after winning it all last year (14 teams) and carpet bombing my team via trade….I won last year even with Wright/Hamilton/Choo missing a collective 6 months or so. I might just hold onto him, but I floated a few offers out without letting people know he’s really on the block. Thanks for that idea!

  6. MH says:
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    Hudson, Zimmermann, Cueto, and Hellickson yes. I’d rather have the others. I think your projection is slightly bullish, and even with it, I also think you’re not properly comparing those numbers to the current run environment. Even with those numbers, the only category he’d be an above average fantasy starter in is Ks. A 3.60ish ERA isn’t what it used to be, and a 1.30 WHIP hurts a bit. Sure, the spikes in BABIP and HR/FB hurt, but they were supposed to regress, and were pretty nominal in 2011, at least compared to the leage. His career rates are better, but if you follow SIERA theory, you would expect BABIP and HR/FB to decline from his career rates thanks to the loss of velocity. Even if he goes back to a 7.5% HR/FB and .280 BABIP, he’s still more like a #3 SP than a top guy, and a marginally strong value at his ADP. If they stay around 9% and .300, I wouldn’t expect much better than a 3.80ish ERA and 1.35 WHIP. I’d pretty easily prefer Moore, Luebke and probably Darvish, not to mention Matt Garza and Anibal Sanchez, and I don’t think he’s necessarily superior to Brandon Morrow and a handful of even deeper guys.

    FWIW, here’s some steamer projections projections, which for the last few years has been perhaps the best at projecting pitchers.

    Jimenez: 13-11, 3.82 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 183 Ks in 194 IP. Solid, but outside of the Ks, pretty meh.
    Mike Minor: 10-9, 3.63, 1.29, 145 in 157
    Brandon Morrow: 13-9, 3.63, 1.34, 203 in 179
    Matt Moore: 11-9, 3.60, 1.36, 173 in 162
    Cory Luebke: 11-9, 3.34, 1.25, 168 in 176

    • Albert Lang

      Albert Lang says:
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      @MH, The average ERA in MLB baseball was 3.94, the average WHIP was 1.32. a 3.60 ERA would have been the 44th best; the WHIP would be 55th best. Add in the top flight K’s and he’s a top 30 pitcher easy with those numbers and clearly above average.

      How many IPs in the majors have Luebke, Darvish and Moore thrown together? Just curious how you can project them to post better ratios than Jimenez.

      Well, we could say outside of a pitchers strongest category he’s pretty meh. Excluding Jimenez’ K’s certainly makes him pedestrian, but he comes with those K’s, so acting as if they arent a part of the conversation doesnt really work. Do you think Minor/Morrow/Moore/Luebke have upside on those numbers? I dont. Whereas Ubaldo does…

      • chata says:
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        @Albert Lang,

        “How many IPs in the majors have Luebke, Darvish and Moore thrown together?”

        maybe i should draft moyer .

        honestly , i like liriano’s chances to bounce-back better than ubaldo’s .

        • MH says:
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          @chata, I think they could be pretty similar.

          @Albert Lang, I posted a follow up comment but it had a couple links so it got filtered (one to a razzball article, another to a fangraphs article by Matt Swarz about projection systems that discussed how well Steamer’s done with pitchers the last few years).

          • Albert Lang

            Albert Lang says:
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            @MH, I’ll have to check out those links. Obviously I prefer my own projections. I can understand different valuations, but I dont think you win leagues by paying top dollar for unproven commodities (Moore, Luebke, Darvish). At no point have any of them thrown 160 IPs at the major league level, that’s hard to do. So we’ll see. And, obviously I think Ubaldo can get back to using his fast ball and breaking pitches more

            • MH says:
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              @Albert Lang, I understand, and I have certain trepidations about all of them, but there should be no kid gloves on Moore and he’s obviously got top notch stuff, Luebke may get exposed a bit if he’s starting but his numbers were off the charts (both as a reliever and starter) last year and he has Petco to abuse, and I go back and forth on Darvish. My point wasn’t that I don’t think Ubaldo is an okay value, but I’ve had this discussion with a few people and I think some are too willing to give him sleeper hype. His command is still a huge problem and I don’t think he has #1 fantasy starter upside even if he gets his command back, while there’s a decent amount of risk/bottom out potential still. He was better than his ERA indicated last year, but that alone isn’t enough to make me a buyer. His K rate was stable but his SwStrike% absolutely tanked and was below league average as well, so even with the Ks I think there’s some risk. The 14th round is right about where I think he belongs, and most of the guys going ahead of him I prefer.

            • MH says:
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              @Albert Lang, Even if he gets his velocity back*, not command

        • Albert Lang

          Albert Lang says:
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          @chata, Why do you like Liriano? Steamer has him for 165 IPs and a 4.15 ERA….

  7. mike says:
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    i hate reading your crap.

    • Albert Lang

      Albert Lang says:
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      @mike, I’m just happy you read it!

      • VinWins

        VinWins says:
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        @Albert Lang, And when can we expect the next article?

        • Albert Lang

          Albert Lang says:
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          @VinWins, Not sure, you have to bug Grey about that! Do know we are trying to fit two more sleepers in next week…

  8. Nonstoptalk says:
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    I’m in a standard 5×5 12 team mixed keeper where the player is kept in the round they were drafted in.

    My Keepers are as follows

    Hanley – Round 1
    Pedroia – Round 3
    Konerko – Round 6
    D. Hudson – Round 12
    A. Sanchez – Round 17
    Beachy – Round 20
    J. Montero – Round 21

    A lot of OF were kept so I’m plannning to try and use my first couple picks on OF if possible. My question is with Hudson/Beachy/Sanchez as the foundation to my rotation roughly when should I target a SP? Do I try and get a Cain/Gallardo with my 2nd pick (4th round) or wait til Garcia/Jiminez/Scherzer/Hellickson/Dempster or maybe somewhere in between?

    Thanks in advance. Love the site.

    • Albert Lang

      Albert Lang says:
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      @Nonstoptalk, I’d probably try to go somewhere in-between, maybe someone like James Shields or Matt Garza or Greinke? I do like Jimenez and Dempster as solid staff fillers, but would like one more solid K guy to pair with Hudson/Beachy/Sanchez.

      If there’s a solid SP in the 5th or 7-11th, I’d pull the trigger.

      That said, I’d definitely want to fill out my offense as early as possible. I wouldnt get wrapped up in OFs as getting a solid 3B would also help.

  9. Nonstoptalk says:
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    Thanks. Another sort of follow up question… Due to some league settings Matt Moore was not kept last season and looking at Yahoo quickly he’d be the 48th ranked player left on the board after keepers using Yahoos ranking of him (#91). Question is I love him and know he has huge upside but does taking him in the 5th-6th-7th round give him any keeper value for years to come? We can keep players in same round next year and for 2 more years after for a total of 3 but players keeper round increases by 2 every year. My concern is that if he s

  10. Nonstoptalk says:
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    Thanks. Another sort of follow up question… Due to some league settings Matt Moore was not kept last season and looking at Yahoo quickly he’d be the 48th ranked player left on the board after keepers using Yahoos ranking of him (#91). Question is I love him and know he has huge upside but does taking him in the 5th-6th-7th round give him any keeper value for years to come? We can keep players in same round next year and for 2 more years after for a total of 3 but players keeper round increases by 2 every year. My concern is that if he doesn’t have good keeper value in those rounds that their are safer picks I could make since The foundation of my staff is so young.

    Thanks again.

    • Albert Lang

      Albert Lang says:
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      @Nonstoptalk, I’m not huge on guys that we have no track record on. I wouldnt personally take him in the 6th round range as he has to reach his ceiling to be worth that almost. In addition, you do limit his value in a keeper league….

      I wouldnt make the move and I dont think you need to. If your keepers werent so good it would make sense to buy lottery tickets, but you have a solid foundation. That said, if the draft goes by and you dont love anyone in the 6th round and Moore is sitting there, pull the trigger. I would prefer someone safer though like Garza/Shields/Greinke/Lester etc.

      • Nonstoptalk says:
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        @Albert Lang, I totally agree with your guys/tier to target. Problem is this is the first year of keepers and my league usually over values pitchers so a lot of top end pitchers went early and weren’t kept. At the top Kershaw, Lee, Lincecum, Felix, Cain, Greinke, Gallardo are all available but then Shields/Lester/Garza and pitchers like that were all kept. But a lot of the guys after them were. After the top 7 that I mentioned you’re looking at Darvish, Moore, Latos, Carpenter, Morrow Luebke. Most of which I’m not to thrilled about. Can I still hang in H2H by passing on everyone I’ve mentioned?

        • Albert Lang

          Albert Lang says:
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          @Nonstoptalk, If its h2h and the waiver wire/free agent pool is light and you are allowed to make a good bit of moves, you are fine. You can pluck some solid two-starters in these types of leagues and manage your roster on a weekly basis. I do like Latos and Morrow a bit, but they dont come without questions like the top 7 do. That said, I’d really go after and solidify my offense and aggressively go after pitchers with upside later. I think you identified the right strategy.

  11. TheNewGuy says:
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    Looking at a deal involving getting Beltre in my 10 team keeper league (OBP league) Al. For giving up Cain and a bat like R Roberts/Dunn/Butler, would you do it? Beltre’s signed up through 2013 too for $23 which is a decent price for big time offensive guys in my league. I do need more power and like Beltre this year and do think I enough pitching to be able to deal a good arm. Worth considering and if so any bat you’d rather give up?

    • Albert Lang

      Albert Lang says:
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      @TheNewGuy, I love Beltre, but his value gets limited in OBP leagues…he becomes a two-dimensional type guy.

      I’d definitely do Cain/Roberts and would probably pull the trigger on Cain/Dunn. I’d like to keep Butler as his and Beltre’s line should be pretty similar.

      • TheNewGuy says:
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        @Albert Lang, He’s just come back saying he means he wants Cain, Butler and another bat (Dunn/Roberts)….knew it was too good to be true. His main reason being the cost of Beltre ($23) for this year and next. I do agree he is a good price, but at that steep price to acquire him, I can’t do that right? He said he needs pitching though so hopefully he’ll think again and come back to me with a more reasonable offer…Just so you know I have a backup 2B in Ackley, and backup CI guy in Encarnacion, but don’t think that makes this deal fair enough though.

        • Albert Lang

          Albert Lang says:
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          @TheNewGuy, In an OBP league, Beltre just loses too much value. Butler should out OBP him by a decent margin and thier counting stats wont be that dissimlar. Of course, Beltre has 3b eligibility, but isnt the most durable guy.

          I’m with you, Cain isnt that far from Beltre in value, especially because of OBP, certainly not far enough to equal Butler + something else.

  12. Matt says:
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    I have a question. My keeper league is now only keeping 3 instead of 5. I was gonna keep:

    M. Cabrera
    Kinsler
    Hamilton
    Granderson
    Elvis Andrus

    Now I realize Elvis is the most expendable I think, but who should I keep between Granderson (one year wonder?) or Hamilton (Free Agent Season)? Who would your 3 be?

    Thanks

    • Albert Lang

      Albert Lang says:
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      @Matt, is this a forever keeper league? If so, Andrus is pretty attractive, especially as SS sucks.

      Miggy and Kinsler are clear then its close between Grandy and Andrus. I’d probably take Grandy but Andrus is somewhat alluring.

      • Matt says:
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        @Albert Lang, Yeah it carries over each year, though this is just the 2nd year of the league. I was set when we were keeping 5 but at 3 I’m lost. Cabrera and Kinsler are both clear and since it looks like Cabrera will get 3B eligibility, then my hope is someone has decided not to keep a good 1B and I can grab them with my 1st pick. I say this cause I thought that if I kept Grandy I had a better shot of grabbing back Josh and/or Elvis in the 2nd or later rounds but that if I kept Hamilton, Grandy might go in the 1st just based on last year. I’m just hoping last year was the Grandy I’m getting and not the one from the prior year. Josh is interesting as since he killed negotiations with his night out, the only way to bank for next year is to have a big year, and he could very well have one. All that said, Elvis in a keeper could be great longer.

        • Albert Lang

          Albert Lang says:
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          @Matt, I dont believe in the contract year stuff. I worry about Hamilton because he’s never stayed healthy. Grandy wont be as good as he was last year, but he has clearly worked on his swing, a 30-30 campaign with solid average seems totally possible to me. I love power-speed combo guys, getting him and Kinsler paired with Miggy is an impressive foundation.

          Can understand going with Andrus, but dont think Hamilton is all that close, really.

          • Matt says:
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            @Albert Lang, So given the options in the OF vs the options at SS, who would you keep between Grandy and Elvis if it were your team?

            • Albert Lang

              Albert Lang says:
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              @Matt, Grandy

              • Matt says:
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                @Albert Lang, Thanks

  13. RandomItalicizedVoice says:
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    Ubaldo got pounded today. Again.

    • Albert Lang

      Albert Lang says:
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      @RandomItalicizedVoice, ST starts dont really concern me…Halladay got pounded the other day. Darvish got pounded, etc. etc.

      • RandomItalicizedVoice says:
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        @Albert Lang, Oh I agree…but when looking for faith in a bounceback candidate…these things don’t help, IMO.

        • Albert Lang

          Albert Lang says:
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          @RandomItalicizedVoice, I does add some trepidation, but what if he’s just working on getting his groove back with the breaking pitches? Halladay just threw changes in his last outing, I mean its hard to say what ST starts mean….would be nice if he went scoreless though :-)

  14. Melvin Emanuel says:
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    Been doing some mocks and so far I think this is my favorite one. However I don’t want to be complacent so I would appreciate some criticism. I think I might be light on homers and Brandon League was my second choice for second closer (tried to get Motte). I’m also concerned with where Jennings is ranked for yahoo. Is 16 overall too high for Hanley?

    C Avila 11
    1B Votto 1
    2B Kendrick 6
    SS H. Ramirez 2
    3B Lawrie 4
    OF McCutchen 3
    OF Jennings 5
    OF Gardner 10
    UTL Reynolds 15
    UTL Joyce 18

    B Rasmus 19
    B Belt 21

    SP Haren 7
    SP Bumgardner 8
    SP Moore 9
    SP Beachy 12
    SP Zimmerman 13
    SP Luebke 14
    SP Chacin 20
    SP Minor 22

    RP Betancourt
    RP League
    RP Thorton

    • Albert Lang

      Albert Lang says:
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      @Melvin Emanuel, I like the pitching staff as Haren and Bum are great building blocks. You are relying on some young a brittle arms though but they have good upside. Obviously, you’d like a bit more in the saves department, but that’s not a huge concern.

      I’m not a huge Jennings and Lawrie fan for those prices though. I would prefer more established stars really. I do like Joyce a good bit and you should be fine in steals. Might need a little power help, but Reynolds could suffice.

      Hanley is a tough one, he had been trending down but he’s not as bad as last year, it’s clearly a product, at least somewhat, of an injury. At 18, it makes some solid sense to grab him given the crappy nature of the SS position. Still, it’s a bit of a gamble.

      • Melvin Emanuel says:
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        @Albert Lang, Thanks for the responce. BTW I live very close to Al Lang Field ha.

        I had a choice between Sandoval and Lawrie and in a real draft I probably would have picked Pablo.

        I always have a problem supplementing the gambles with safe picks. I tend to favor young upside over aging players trending down. Lawrie scares me after I took Chris Davis early a couple years ago.

        I could see myself taking Hanley in a real draft hoping his down year was injury and babip related. Batting third, a 20-30 season would put him on par with Tulo, right?

        • Tony says:
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          @Melvin Emanuel, mocks are crap, they’re basically there to get you a feel of the rankings and the system, yahoo, espn, etc…. dont even for 1 min think a mock is going to prepare you for your real draft.

          I’m a pretty firm believer of going with a solid GIVEN than upside. I love upside, but pablo or lawrie? i’ll take pablo 9 of 10 times….. we’ve seen a million dudes hyped over small sample sizes, i’d much rather have a guy i KNOW can hit .315 and 20+hrs…. lawrie could/should etc hit 20/20 easy, but what if he heywards 2011?

          nothings guaranteed with any player, but especially not with young “upside” players.

        • Albert Lang

          Albert Lang says:
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          @Melvin Emanuel, Our neighbors use to vacation near Al Lang Field and would always bring us cups, my dad is Al Lang II. It’s a pretty cool place, I gather (or at least was in the 80s).

          I think Mocks have value just in seeing the highs and lows. I dont really do them anymore because the people I play with do such crazy things that having a plan is rendered meaningless quickly. Other players can be more formulaic though.

          Just talked about Hanley on Sirius and I wont touch him this year until pick 25 or so. Not that I’m particularly concerned about him (although he was trending down the last few seasons), but I want him to prove he’s that guy again and see how the new ballpark plays. If healthy, Hanley could absolutely challenge Tulo as top SS dog.

  15. Matt says:
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    Nope. I live in Denver and I have watched Ubaldo have what, 3 good months in his career. I am glad he was traded and I wouldn’t pick him up off the waiver wire…unless I wanted to LOSE points.

    • Albert Lang

      Albert Lang says:
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      @Matt, That’s a tad harsh on the guy, no? He did some impressive things for Colorado….but can understand being burned by a hometown guy. I have a strong disdain for Ben McDonald…

  16. K76154 says:
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    Scout says that Jimenez was only having 89~91mph and top at 92mph in his last spring training game. While ST stats mean nothing, this big velocity drop is definitely a huge warning sign. I am moving him from the sleeper list all the way to the exclude list now…

    • @K76154, I’m not overly concerned about ST velocity reports. For one thing, guns can vary widely. For another, Halladay topped out at 89 MPHs a few weeks ago.

      I just dont think we know anywhere near enough about ST to ascertain which performance matters and which doesnt. Dont let ST velocity be your determination. If it is the tiny push that puts you over the top, fine, but dont give it more power than its worth.

      I’m hoping the velocity is a result of Ubaldo spending more time working on his breaking ball as that will be imperative to him shining this year.

      We shalls ee.

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