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I’ll write a 2013 fantasy rookie post about Trevor Bauer, too.  It’s inevitable.  Even after Bauer was called up to the majors and produced a 6+ ERA, his stuff was still undeniable.  There will be time to go over Bauer.  Let’s shine some light on Tyler Skaggs so he doesn’t remain Barbara Hersey to Bauer’s Bette Midler.  Sure, Skaggs doesn’t have the dazzling strikeouts like Bauer.  He might not have the upside of a Cy Young contender like Bauer.  Shoot, let’s just talk about Bauer… No!  We’re gonna talk about Tyler. Skaggs plays second fiddle to no man, not even Steve Miller.  Though, Skaggs was just as terrible in his major league call up as Bauer with a 5.83 ERA in 29 1/3 IP only without the beautiful Ks.  Okay, enough about Bauer– But his Ks are really purdy– No, this is about Skaggs.  So what can we expect for 2013 fantasy baseball?

I’m gonna write Skaggs’s 2012 off as nerves.  Unlike Bauer, Skaggs doesn’t have severe control problems.  He did have solid Ks in the minors, too.  In Double-A, he had a 9+ K-rate.  His fastball is only 89+ MPH though, so there’s no high expectation that he’ll be a 9+ K guy in the majors.  In fact, in Triple-A, his K-rate dropped to 7+.  Then in 29 1/3 IP last year in the majors, he K’d people just over 6 per nine.  He reminds me of another Diamondback prospect that isn’t named Trevor Bauer, and isn’t even still in the Diamondbacks’ system.  Skaggs reminds me of Jarrod Parker.  The same Parker who gave top 40 starter value last year and had a K-rate just under 7.  Parker is three years older than Skaggs, so the comparison isn’t quite there.  Then again, Parker was in the AL…Then again again, the A’s play in a pitchers’ park and the Diamondbacks don’t.  Then again again again, Parker needed some luck to have a 3.47 ERA.  Then again again again again that means if Skaggs isn’t lucky he won’t have a 3.50-ish ERA.  Then again ag– Skaggs will probably be around a 4 ERA guy with above-average Ks.  That’s solid for an NL-Only pitcher, but he’ll be a wait-and-see for most mixed leagues.  For 2013, I’ll give him the line of 10-7/4.10/1.29/140 in 180 IP. So, how about that Trevor Bauer?

From Around The Web

  1. JT says:
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    @Grey, I consider myself well versed on your “wait for pitching” philosophy (and the dangers of rookie nookie re: pitchers). I know the sweet baby jesus of posts, your 2013 SP rankings, will answer this question for future me but I’m wondering how many young arms to target and trying to prioritize for the re-draft. I guess I’m wondering if I should draft useful guys earlier or gamble on the children (Bauer, Skaggs, Bundy, Hultzen, etc.). Ask your ‘stache how many young arms I should stash. And if there can only be one, is it Bauer or Bundy?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I don’t gamble on many rookie arms… Maybe one a year, if that… I gamble on young-ish arms… Like Scherzer, Bailey, Medlen… Last year, I liked Peacock, but quickly abandoned him when he wasn’t breaking camp with the team…

    • Simply Fred

      simply fred says:
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      @JT, you didn’t qualify which type of game you play. If roto, you might want to check out the ‘Streaming Pitcher Rater’ at top left. Includes links that track excellent results that would warrant drafting hitters in lieu of top pitchers. Not so ideal for H2H, other formats.

      • JT says:
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        @simply fred, Guess it would help if I gave details. I’m in a 12-team keeper. This year we kept 8 and the only pitcher I kept was Price. Wondering if, in the early rounds of the draft, I should reach for a hog upside/future ace (Bundy or Bauer)

        • beardcrabs says:
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          @JT, early rounds is not a time to be gambling even in a keeper league…

          usually solidify your offense first, draft your 1-2 reliable SP’s, take a gamble or two midway, punt C, punt saves, upside picks at the end… Boom: winner, winner, chicken dinner…

  2. Sky

    Sky says:
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    Love Skaggs for next year based on his price tag. Just like last year, he’ll be a rookie hype train afterthought.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, probably true… Won’t be drafted in many leagues, that’s for sure… So you can get him…

  3. Jon says:
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    1) Frazier $3 + Desmond $10 + Rasmus $4 + Anderson $3 = $20
    2) Jennings $20
    3) Lawrie $20
    4) Zimmerman $25

    I should have $45 to spend. What would you do?

    Rest of my team is below:

    Posey $15, AGon $25, Hosmer $20, Cano $29, Tulo $30, Stanton $24, Bumgarner $15, Zimmermann $20, Medlen $3

    • Jon says:
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      Forgot these two: would Lester at $20 or Minor at $15 factor in?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      1 and 4 if you have $45 to spend… You don’t have that many great deals…

      • Jon says:
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        @Grey, do you like any of these deals better?

        Victorino $24, Aybar $3, Anibal $15, Capuano $3, Balfour $11, Frieri $3, Janssen $3, Cishek $3

        (I don’t)

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Deals? You mean keepers? Nah, they’re not better…

  4. Bhoner says:
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    Dr. Grey,
    Keeper question. Can keep 5 players, each one round earlier than drafted the year before, this year’s cost in parenthesis. Have Beltre (7th rd), Granderson (8th), and Bruce (9th) as keepers, but need 2 more of Cano (1st), Shields (19th), Yadier Molina (16th), Freeman (11th), Moore (7th), or Reed (22nd). I pick 12th. Thinking Cano and Shields, but wanted a second opinion. Thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I agree with you…Cano and Shields…

  5. Steve says:
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    Blue Jays on the verge of getting Josh Johnson from the Marlins (it says here).

    AL East and you don’t get to face the pitcher, hmmm…

    • Steve says:
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      @Steve, Buerhle part of the deal too, apparently.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Ain’t getting better…

        • Steve says:
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          @Grey, Yunel Escobar and Hechavarria part of the package going the other way.

          More updates as Twitter gives them to me…

          • Steve says:
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            @Steve, Now some chatter that Reyes might be involved…

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            I can’t imagine Reyes is moving… Hechavarria isn’t a bad get though…

            • Steve says:
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              @Grey, Ken Rosenthal has just confirmed that he is – and he’s normally pretty reliable. Henderson Alvarez going to the Marlins.

            • Steve says:
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              @Grey, Bonifacio and Buck going to Toronto as well.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Wow, that’s a huge get by the Blue Jays… I’m pretty shocked…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Gross… I don’t like that for either…

  6. royce! says:
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    Just to summarize what Steve mentioned above:

    Blue Jays get Johnson, Buehrle, Reyes, Buck and Bonifacio.

    Marlins get Escobar, Hechavarria, Henderson Alvarez, and Justin Nicolino.

    Nicolino might be the top value among those players going to Florida, though for now, it certainly adds fantasy value to Alvarez.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, what an avalanche of players going to the Blue Jays… Gonna have to write a post about this for tomorrow…

  7. Steve says:
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    From Morosi on Twitter…

    Marlins opened season with a payroll of roughly $100MM. After this trade, non-arb 2013 obligations will be ~ $16MM. Historic salary dump.

    • Steve says:
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      @Steve, And Giancarlo is pretty pissed off…

      • royce! says:
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        @Steve, Now he gets to be the clubhouse veteran! Old, wise Giancarlo. He’ll tell you about life in the old country, and teach you about women, wine, and the joys of gardening.

        • Steve says:
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          @royce!, His agent is probably calling every GM in the league.

          • Steve says:
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            @Steve, If not MLB.

            My pick? Beane gets him for the A’s in exchange for Daric Barton and Travis Blackley.

            • royce! says:
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              @Steve, I guess Giancarlo actually tweeted that he was pissed, “Plain and Simple.” So I was wrong about him embracing the clubhouse veteran role… Nice pick re: the A’s. What a mess.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Loria is such a POS…

      • royce! says:
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        @Grey, Absolutely. Maybe he thought that the only way they could win was with Ozzie, and once that failed, it was time to forfeit. It’s funny since they had improved so much as a team just by getting rid of Heath Bell. At least there aren’t that many Marlins fans in this world, so the net suffering won’t be too high.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          It’s almost like the Marlins are trying to be bad… Whether they spend money or not… Are we sure Loria isn’t in some kind of Brewster’s Millions ruse?

          • royce! says:
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            @Grey, Ha! Well then, all is forgiven, because that would be hilarious.

  8. royce! says:
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    Now the Blue Jays are adding either Gose or Jake Marisnick, plus a C (Arencibia, Wilson or Mathis)? Premature summation on my part.

  9. Eddy says:
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    As a guy who truly believed my hometown Marlins wouldn’t firesale again, I don’t know what to say anymore. I can’t even react to this. I am numb.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      They don’t deserve your loyalty… Try the Rays on for size…

    • royce! says:
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      @Eddy, I guess you can start looking forward to a few years from now, when all the prospects they got back can produce at a major league level…That’s what I’ve been doing with the Padres for years!

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        Yeah, then the Marlins will trade them away for more prospects…

  10. Steve says:
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    To paraphrase friend-of-Razzball Jason Collette, it’s like one of those fantasy trades where some guy trades all his good players to his friend – and then leaves the league.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      If only the league would kick Loria the eff out of the league…

      • Steve says:
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        @Grey, And he also said that it’s kind of ironic that MLB doesn’t want Mark Cuban, but are OK with Loria.

        I mean, I think Cuban is a bit of a dick, but he can’t be any worse than this asshole.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I can’t imagine he’s in any way worse… With Cuban, at least you get a guy that wants to win…Something that is sorely missing from Loria… I think it’s more about Selig not wanting to deal with Cuban, because Selig’s all about himself… These guys annoy me, can you tell?

  11. royce! says:
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    From Loria’s Wikipedia page: “He is generally considered to be the worst owner in the history of professional sports.”

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Seriously?

      • royce! says:
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        @Grey, Totally.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’ve been to Palm Beach and I gotta say I wasn’t expecting an article like that from their newspaper, but good stuff indeed…

  12. Steve says:
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    Rosenthal saying Nolasco is the next one out the door…

    • royce! says:
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      @Steve, I would think that Nolasco would be hard to sell. Most teams aren’t desperate to pay $9 million for a guy who has steadily declined in K/BB, regardless of his FIP or xFIP (which are also crappier now). Though I could be wrong- his fangraphs WAR is the same as Gallardo and Edwin Jackson’s.

      But I think you’re right that they have no reason to keep a guy who will make more than, well, league minimum at this point.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      They’ll give him away for a used napkin… I might trade Smokey for Nolasco…

  13. SwaggerJackers says:
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    I wish they’d trade Stanton so I could get my 2013 counting stats!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, might only see 100 RBIs on 40+ HRs…

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