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Tyler Pastornicky was born 12/13/1989, which is crazy young, good lord.

Certainly he’s too young to have been a fifth round draft pick THREE YEARS ago by the Toronto Blue Jays. Or not, I suppose.

He made his way down to Georgia as part of the semi-big trade that exiled Yunel Escobar and his “’tude” to Canada, which isn’t a portion of the United States of America.

Still, the trade was largely considered an Escobar-Alex Gonzalez swap and it wasn’t entirely unwarranted. While he was still relatively young, Pastornicky hadn’t acquitted himself all that well in Rookie Ball or at A/A+.

That didn’t stop the Braves from putting Pastornicky right at AA, where he hit .254/.333/.366 with two homers and 11 steals in 160 plate appearances – not exactly inspiring.

However, he started off 2011 at AA and looked good: .299/.345/.414. He earned a promotion to AAA after 90 games and played quite well. He hit .365/.407/.413 at Gwinnett in 117 plate appearances.

Apparently the Braves are sold as they’ve gone after no shortstops in free agency and look prepared to pencil Pastornicky into the starting SS position to milk him for all his potential, but should you be buying the cow?

I think not, the clearest path — given his abilities — to fantasy baseball success would be with his legs and stolen bases. However, the Braves seem to enjoying burying their young hitters. The odds that Pastornicky bats eighth in the order are pretty high. If that’s the case, his stolen base chances diminish incredibly. You don’t send a guy with a pitcher bunting and then the order turns over. So, even if Pastornicky gets on base, a bevy of SB chances aren’t following.

I really think his 2011 will be similar to Alcides Escobar’s 2010. In 2008, Escobar hit .328/.363/.434 at AA. In 2009, he hit .298/.353/.409 at AAA. In 2010 in 552 major league plate appearances, Escobar hit .235/.288/.326 with 10 SBs in 14 tries. He batted 7th 225 times and 8th 207 times.

I’m going to be a bit more optimistic on Pastornicky. I’ll pencil him in for a .250 average, 50 runs, 5-7 HRs, 40 RBIs and 15-20 SBs. That’s got a decent NL-only odor. Otherwise, ignore the hype, there is a chance Willie Bloomquist has a better year than him!

For those of you in keeper/dynasty leagues, Pastornicky has far more appeal. While his numbers look like Escobar’s, Pastornicky was younger than Escobar at each level. In addition, shortstop remains a terribly thin position, so any chance at stabilizing it with a solid option is worth taking. I’d be trying to grab him in most keeper leagues. Speed from short for the long-term is not something to let pass by. I would draft him in the late teen rounds (depending on league rules) in keeper drafts and earlier in dynasty while barely giving him top 180 player status.

11 Responses

  1. Albert Lang

    Albert Lang says:
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    Hey guys – looking forward to some comments today — seems like a slow business day – prefect for talking fantasy baseball.

    Thoughts on Pastronicky or other rookies/potential sleepers for 2012?

  2. Another good analysis. I like Dee Gordon. His partial season stacks up pretty well as it is (aside from lack of power) and should make him more under the radar than he deserves. Slotted in the leadoff spot, he shouldn’t have those concerns about SB chances either. I’d rather reach for him late than the early-mid round guys.

    As an aside, Bloomquist had some pretty severe home/away splits LY if you were in a position to play him at home.

  3. Albert Lang

    Albert Lang says:
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    @centralohguy:

    thanks!

    Agree on Gordon – he’s a lot more attractive option. He could hit .260-.275, with 40+ steals – that’s pretty valuable.

  4. TheNewGuy says:
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    I like Derek Holland as a sleeper, guy really came on in the 2nd half last year and should be very solid now he’s starting to avoid blowup starts.

    Allen Craig should make the RF job his own in STL (so long as they don’t sign someone like Beltran). Prorate his 2011 stats out and you get 27HRs, 100RBIs, and a high AVG (.315). If this guy’s gonna be a regular come opening day, go get em guys.

  5. Albert Lang

    Albert Lang says:
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    @TheNewGuy:

    I’ve loved Derek Holland for awhile now (http://h2hcorner.wordpress.com/2011/01/24/h2h-corner-2010-head-to-head-pitcher-rankings/) and totally agree with you.

    Craig will be an interesting case as it’s not sure if he’ll be fully healthy to start the season (could miss a month) — and the subsequent off-season training. he might start really really slow. I love the bat, but I’m concerned about his 2012.

    Thanks for reading!

  6. Smokey

    Smokey says:
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    @Albert Lang: Pass on Tyler, a place holder for the Bravos. Andrelton Simmons is a better all around player.

    Sleeper wise I am always down with RP types if anyone has ever read my posts. David Carpenter, Greg Holland. And a really deep sleeper, is Cody Burns in SD.

  7. Albert Lang

    Albert Lang says:
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    @Smokey:

    Simmons is an interesting case — 22 and older than Pastornick. He did hit .311/.351/.408 last year at A+ ball, but seems a tad old for that level. He seems to profile more of a glove first player — puts the ball in play a ton but without much authority. I think Pastornicky has a brighter fantasy future.

    Greg Holland is a very nice and interesting name you list.

    Thanks for the info and reading!

  8. barker says:
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    going into second year of a 20 team keeper league was wondering what your thoughts on which guys to keep for next season separate slots for lf/cf/rf one util

    keep six from prince fielder verlander kemp gallardo pineda matt moore brett lawrie adam lind sergio santos tim hudson kenley jansen danny espinosa

    closers are pretty valuable in this league but probably dont need to keep any

  9. @barker:

    Fielder, Verlander, Kemp, Lawrie, Gallardo and then it is kind of a toss up. I’d take PIneda, but Moore looks good as well….

  10. chata says:
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    @barker:

    assuming that everyone is starting the draft with round 7 , and that
    the order of the 1st 6 doesn’t matter :
    am in agreement with albert , except i’m switching out gallardo and
    keeping both pineda and moore .

    maybe lind will fall back to you in the draft , but , regardless , my next
    4 or 5 picks (rds 8-12) would definitely be position players … and not
    pitchers .
    after that , i might look for my 1st closer , and then more hitters .

  11. Appreciate the comment @chata.

    I’d rather take a known thing in Gallardo. Tons of Ks, top 15 pitcher. Who knows what moore will become. I want certainty.

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