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Greetings from beautiful Sandestin, FL. I am on vacation for a long holiday weekend, but I am so dedicated to Razznation that I am taking time away from the beach to make sure you still have the information and insight you desire this week.

Before we get started, feel free to ignore Clayton Kershaw. I have no inside information that he might not start twice this week, but it seems that every week that he is on the list Dave Roberts and the Dodgers change things up on us. Going forward, if he is on the list, just assume that he will be removed. If he is not on the list, assume he will be added. Roberts and Co. are determined to tinker with their rotation every week, possibly just to mess with us. Since he is scheduled to start twice as of this writing, I assume that that will no longer be the case by the time you are reading this roughly 18 hours from now.

Rant over. Anyway, the target of the week for Week 14 is Jerad Eickhoff, who is apparently going to come off the disabled list and start on July 4 (go America!) against the Pirates. That would put him on track to start again against the Padres over the weekend. He is owned in just 20% of RCLs, and the Razzball Streamonator currently has him as the 11th (out of 40) best option for two-start starters for Week 14 with a value of $6.3.

Now, the first concern that jumps out is that Eickhoff is, as of this writing, not a 100% lock to start on July 4. He should. He probably will. All signs point to him starting that game. He threw another bullpen session this week, and there have been no reports of a setback or lingering issues. He is definitely going to start against the Pirates on July 4. I think.

Eickhoff has been up and down this season. After a great initial debut in 2015, he was solid for the Phillies in 2016. This season, though, he has kind of been all over the place so far. He started off the year with three straight quality starts and looked like he might be taking a step forward in 2017. But then he tossed just one quality start in his next nine, and his ERA ballooned from 2.55 to 5.15. His walks were up and his command was off, as you can see from his 1.53 WHIP (it was 1.16 last season) and his BB/9 (1.92 in 2016 vs. 3.98 in 2017).

His strikeout numbers are nearly identical between 2016 and 2017. In 2016: 7.62. In 2017: 7.63.

And that is where we start to get into some of the good and why it might be worth the risk to roll with Eickhoff, at least for this week. Before landing on the disabled list a couple weeks ago, he had thrown two quality starts in a row. He has also had some bad luck this season, as you can see when you take a look at BABIP numbers.

Eickhoff’s BABIP went from slightly below league average last season to way above league average last season. Did he just get lucky all of last season, or is he getting incredibly unlucky this season? Probably a combination of both, though 2016 is obviously a much larger sample size. A slight regression to the mean for Eickhoff’s BABIP could lead to more success, so that is a reason for hope.

Another normalization to keep an eye on is his ERA to FIP ratio. 2016: 3.65 vs. 4.19. 2017: 4.93 vs. 4.18. Despite nearly identical FIP numbers, his ERA is more than a full run higher in 2017. Some normalization here could also lead to better overall numbers.

Now, when it comes to why you should consider Eickhoff specifically this week, the answer is a bit more simple: The two teams he is tentatively scheduled to pitch against this week just aren’t all that good.

The Pirates and Padres are not exactly offensive juggernauts this season, and the boast wOBAs of .294 and .298, respectively, over the last two weeks. That puts both of them in the bottom third of the league, which is where they have both spent most of the season. As a bonus, Eickhoff would get to face both of them at home, as well.

The Streamonator likes Jerad Eickhoff this week, and I am not one to argue with tools created and managed by the great Rudy Gamble. Now, for the rest of the two-start starters this week.

Pitchers are listed in order by rank. Colors represent 8 toughest or 8 easiest opponents according to team wOBA for last 14 days.

THE BEST

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
Clayton Kershaw LAD ARI, KC 2.32/3.23 10.44/1.55
Stephen Strasburg WSH NYM, ATL 3.51/3.09 10.69/2.45
Yu Darvish TEX BOS, LAA 3.11/3.74 9.67/3.11
Jameson Taillon PIT @PHI, @CHC 2.97/3.73 7.80/3.12
Aaron Nola PHI PIT, SD 4.13/3.82 8.82/3.03

THE REPLICAS

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
Felix Hernandez SEA KC, OAK 4.66/5.15 7.68/1.63
David Price BOS @TEX, @TB 4.61/4.92 7.90/3.29
Lance Lynn STL MIA, NYM 3.90/5.40 8.60/3.60
J.A. Happ TOR @NYY, HOU 3.71/3.70 9.00/1.59
Zack Godley ARI @LAD, CIN 2.67/3.18 8.30/2.81
Jimmy Nelson MIL BAL, @NYY 3.43/3.26 9.65/2.32
Ivan Nova PIT @PHI, @CHC 3.08/3.82 5.00/1.08

THE STANDARDS

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
John Lackey CHC TB, PIT 5.24/5.88 8.06/2.91
Rick Porcello BOS @TEX, @TB 5.06/3.98 8.49/1.80
Jerad Eickhoff PHI PIT, SD 4.93/4.18 7.63/3.52
Marcus Stroman TOR @NYY, HOU 3.41/3.95 7.53/2.15
Sean Newcomb ATL HOU, @WSH 1.48/2.93 7.77/2.96
Adam Wainwright STL MIA, NYM 5.17/4.04 7.80/3.38
Masahiro Tanaka NYY TOR, MIL 5.56/5.12 8.93/2.48
Joe Ross WSH NYM, ATL 5.12/4.70 8.38/2.13
Alex Meyer LAA @MIN, @TEX 3.74/4.00 10.08/6.02

THE KNOCKOFFS

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
Steven Matz NYM @WSH, @STL 2.67/4.99 6.00/2.33
Blake Snell TB @CHC, BOS 5.36/5.28 7.66/5.74
Carlos Rodon CHW* @OAK, @COL 4.04/4.01 9.16/2.95
Jeff Hoffman COL CIN, CHW 4.04/2.83 9.35/2.34
Yovani Gallardo SEA KC, OAK 6.06/4.78 6.64/3.78
Wade Miley BAL @MIL, @MIN 4.54/4.97 8.19/5.09
David Paulino HOU @ATL, @TOR 6.52/5.10 10.55/2.17
Daniel Gossett OAK CHW, @SEA 5.57/5.42 5.57/1.29
Luis Castillo CIN @COL, @ARI 3.38/6.42 11.81/6.75
Jose Urena MIA @STL, @SF 3.42/4.79 5.66/3.18

THE 

Player Opponents ERA/FIP K9/BB9
Jesse Hahn OAK CHW, @SEA 5.30/3.60 7.11/3.49
Paolo Espino MIL BAL, @NYY 4.60/6.71 5.74/3.45
Adalberto Mejia MIN LAA, BAL 4.38/5.55 7.54/4.91
Jeff Locke MIA @STL, @SF 5.52/4.40 7.36/3.38
Luis Perdomo SD @CLE, @PHI 4.71/4.35 7.47/3.45
Matt Cain SF @DET, MIA 5.46/5.21 5.36/3.75
Kyle Freeland COL CIN, CHW 3.84/4.87 5.28/3.46
Ubaldo Jimenez BAL @MIL, @MIN 6.48/5.74 7.57/4.28
Homer Bailey CIN** @COL, @ARI 27.00/13.64 7.71/9.64

* 2016 statistics
** Two 2017 starts

All pitchers are projected for two starts as of Friday night. 

If you would prefer to see the above tables as a color-coded graphic, we’ve got that too!

(Click to enlarge)

As always, disagree with anything here? Have any questions or comments? Want to tell Mike how great he is or how much you agree with him? Want relationship or investment advice?

DROP THOSE COMMENTS!

 

If you want to talk fantasy baseball or football or have players you want Mike to feature, hit him up on Twitter at @mikeMaher or post a comment below!

 

 

   
  1. Fogimon says:
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    Ryu is slotted for 2 starts, no?

    Abd what about Bauer?

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Fogimon:

      Depends on who starts July 4. Could be Kershaw or Ryu at this point. Dodgers mess with their rotation more than anyone else in the majors right now.

      And yeah, Bauer has been added to some lists but not others. Looks like he is *probably* going to start twice, but that could change, especially with the doubleheader today.

  2. Stumanji! says:
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    Andrew Moore, Seattle vs KC & maybe vs Oak.

    Poo-poo?

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Stumanji!:

      He was sharp in his first start and has been solid in the minors this season, so I say go for it.

      • mikeMaher

        mikeMaher says:
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        @mikeMaher:

        I just checked and Streamonator likes him too. 13th overall, $4.6.

  3. Chucky says:
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    Any shot in starting either or Hoffman v CIn & CHW and/or Castillo @ Col/Az over Vargas @ Sea, Manea @ Sea or Wacha v Miami?

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Chucky:

      Hey, Chucky. Nah, I don’t think so. The only one that would temp me is Wacha vs. Miami, just because of how dangerous that Miami offense has been. But Wacha has been good the last few times out, and Streamonator does not like either Hoffman or Castillo:

      Hoffman: $-17.7
      Castillo: $-38.1

  4. hitman004 says:
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    Great job as usual @mikeMaher. Who would you start tomorrow between Montero and T Walker?

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @hitman004:

      Thanks. I really appreciate that. I would go Montero, actually.

  5. Lance

    Lance says:
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    This is probably my favorite GIF of the season Mike, great find, I’m dying

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Lance:

      Haha, thanks! I didn’t create it but knew when I found it that it was the one to use this week!

  6. dfrench23 says:
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    2-catcher (2-yr keeper) league: My guys are Avila ($10) and Martin ($15) Votto ($31) Smoak ($10) Bellinger ($2) Choo ($10) Maybin ($10) M.Taylor ($10) Valencia ($10) and Bregman ($5)….the rest are 2nd year guys he wouldn’t want (Odor, Arenado, Bogaerts,Peraza) and my pitchers are Kershaw ($45) Bauer ($10) A.Meyer ($10) Samardzjia ($10) A.Wood ($10) and I’m trying 3 RPs for saves/holds – Betances $8, Devenski $10, B.Brach $10.

    Guy in 11th place has 2nd year guys he might dump around the AS Break. His top offerings would include de Grom, Trout and Braun. It is a 2-yr keeper (14-team roto OBP not BA, QS not W, Holds+saves instead of just S) and I have some potential keepers to offer. I’m doing well in all categories but HR, RBI and Svs+Holds.

    What should I offer him (if anything) for those 3 studs?

    He has Maldonado & Wieters at C, Miggy at 1B, Kipnis, Shaw, Arcia, J.Bell, Dyson, Haniger, Pham, Souza, Stanton and Ellsbury at 1st year. A couple of other 2nd year hitters he might offer are Napoli and D.Swanson but I’m more interested in Trout and Braun.

    His other pitchers are King Felix, Pomeranz, T.Ross, Straily, Wacha, Kintzler, and Rodney.

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @dfrench23:

      Phew. Loaded question here.

      Sell high options: Avila, Smoak (though it would be nice to have his bat ROS if he keeps hitting like this), Choo, M. Taylor, Valencia. I would add either Bauer or Samardzjia if you can get DeGrom in return, too.

      If you can get those three for some combination of the above, I think you could make a great deal. Will depend on his thinking, but if he is entirely focused on next season, then it should be easier.

      I would also hate to give up Bregman in a keeper league, but it wouldn’t be a deal breaker for me if he insisted on him.

      • dfrench23 says:
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        @mikeMaher: I’m guessing Bellinger will have to be in a deal if I ask for all 3 (Trout, Braun and de Grom) even though I wish I could only offer a combination of others.

        You wouldn’t offer Bellinger?

        • mikeMaher

          mikeMaher says:
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          @dfrench23:

          Tough to give up Bellinger in a keeper league like that. Only worth it if you definitely get all 3 in return fo rhim.

  7. Mike says:
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    Dylan bundy….to keep or not to keep?

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Mike:

      Depends on your league, imo. I am personally not a big Bundy fan, but he has pitched well enough to be considered.

  8. True and Correct says:
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    Bauer getting skipped by Kluber, would be the only way short of another raincoat that he won’t double. Francona won’t change his rotation, despite how awesome Kluber’s been. But as a Bauer owner who has thought about kicking him to the curb (yough to do in a free standing 15 teamer which costs $5,000 an entry. Bad enough I threw back Babe Ruth Granderson. This week i’m thinking about putting bids on Thor/Wacha/McHugh for Volquez. 3 months to go and money running low. Wouldn’t mind gambling that Thor pulls a Bumgarner, and gives me 2 months. Have him on top of Wacha and McHugh. Problem is I think Wacha will cost more. Guess I can throw out Chacin (love his splits) or Miranda (like his grit and home starts) and see if I can snag Thor for $5. 1,000 f.a.money at the beginning of the year. Most have $100-$300 left.
    Any thoughts ?

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @True and Correct:

      Definitely a gamble but Thor is a guy who is worth it if it pays off. My main concern would be the Mets shutting him down late in the season once they are out of it.

      • Andrew Edenbaum says:
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        @mikeMaher: Thanks dude. That’s my concern too. 2 months of a healthy Thor would be worth it. Wish I had Collins tel. no. haha

  9. Kirk Miller says:
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    What about Patrick Corbin? Seems like he will get two starts.

    I have a SS question. Rest of season, who would you rather have in an OBP league?
    Zack Cozart
    Andrelton Simmons
    Orlando Arcia

    Thanks!

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Kirk Miller:

      Yeah, looks like he will now. I’m not a huge Corbin guy, but he has been pitching better lately. I would probably put him around where Miley is.

      I would want Cozart.

  10. hothot says:
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    Have you been to Boshamps (Destin) yet? IMO, the best seafood in town, highly rec grilled swordfish & fried grouper.

    If you like hidden gems, Tradewinds (Niceville) is one of our faves, too. Mostly Italian.

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @hothot:

      I have not, but my wife’s family has. And thanks! I’ll check that out one of these days.

  11. Raj says:
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    Nice twerk, sounds like godley is now going just one start at Dodgers and peacock is now going two at braves and at jays, they love to change it up on you after publication. Where do you rank peacock?

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Raj:

      Thanks! Yeah, that is definitely the most frustrating part of this post. You need to get it done so people have the info by Sat/Sun, but some teams always seem to shuffle their rotation. The Dodgers, so far, have been easily the worst offenders. They get me just about every week.

      And I like Peacock. Looking at the list above, I think I would just put him around where Godley is.

  12. Chucky says:
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    Mejia v LAA, Balt a better option than Cahill @ Clev and Phil?

    • mikeMaher

      mikeMaher says:
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      @Chucky:

      I certainly don’t love either one, but yeah I would put Mejia slightly above Cahill.

  13. Andrew Edenbaum says:
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    Kluber 2 stepping ? Kershaw ? Darvish ? Archer ?

Comments are closed.