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I’ve gone over the top 20 starters for 2013 fantasy baseball, the top 40 starters for 2013 fantasy baseball and the top 60 starters for 2013 fantasy baseball, which brings us to the top 80 starters for 2013 fantasy baseball.  Crazy how that worked, huh?  Next thing you tomorrow will be the top 100.  There’s a few names in these post that I’m really gunning for on my teams.  In last year’s version of this post, there were a few guys that shot up the rankings (Peavy, Vogelsong, Niese, Kuroda, Dickey and Chris Sale), so I imagine a lot of you won’t need most of the names on this list, but there will be some.  Now humor me.  There’s tiers and projections mentioned for everyone.  Anyway, here’s the top 80 starters for 2013 fantasy baseball:

61. A.J. Griffin – This tier started in the top 60 starters for 2013 fantasy baseball.  This tier goes from here until Cobb.  I called this tier, “I love you, I love you not… I love you!”  Alfredo Jettuccine will probably will only throw about 170 innings this year.  There’s some nice upside here and he should get a sleeper post.  Maybe when we’re finally done with these godforsaken rankings.  In the minors, he opened his trench and flashed some sexy K-rates, but it probably won’t translate to more than a 7.50 K/9 due to his stuff.  He’s more of a solid Ks, low walks guy.  Think a cheap Zimmermann.  Sorry, I mean, a frugal Zimmermann.  All I need is the Anti-Defamation League coming after me.  2013 Projections: 9-11/3.45/1.19/135

62. Matt Harvey – I already went over my Matt Harvey 2013 fantasy.  I wrote it while changing Chiddy Bang’s chorus of Handclaps & Guitars into, “Oh oh ooh oh, I just drafted Harvey…”  2013 Projections:  10-7/3.92/1.34/192 in 188 innings

63. Felix Doubront – I already went over my Felix Doubront 2013 fantasy.   I wrote it while trying to pronounce Tchoupitoulas.  2013 Projections:  12-12/3.92/1.33/185

64. Dillon Gee – In August, he had a shoulder artery cleared and needed to rest for six weeks.  That reminds me of the time they were doing work on the 10 Freeway and I got a flat tire, but the shoulder was closed… Oh, Gee, where was I?  In 109 2/3 IP last year, he had a near-8 K-rate and a sub-2.50 BB/9.  If he were to make any strides forward, he’ll be a top 40 starter.  Not the sexiest of names.  His name sounds a bit like what a Boy Scout would exclaim if he stubbed his toe.  There’s some nice upside here.  To read more, here’s Sky’s Dillon Gee sleeper post.  2013 Projections: 12-8/3.82/1.24/157

65. Hyun-Jin Ryu – Here’s what I said about Ryu when he came stateside, “The South Korean phenom signed with the Dodgers.  That’s the South Korean phenom NOT known for riding imaginary horses.  Shoot, maybe the Gangnam Style guy signed with the Dodgers too.  Or make that Psy-igned.  That gives the Dodgers Kershaw, Greinke, Beckett, Billingsley, Lilly, Capuano, Harang and Ryu.  I’m guessing the Dodgers know Bills won’t be available due to an elbow injury.  Though, they could just Isiah make some new Bills.  And Kershaw could have hip problems.  In South Korea, Ryu had a 2.80 ERA over 7 seasons.  Scouts have said he’s probably an MLB draft first round talent.  Ryu serious?  Yes, I am.  He’s 25 years old and should be entering his prime.  He throws a 90 MPH fastball with a slow curve, tight slider and an excellent changeup, according to sources familiar with him.  Ryu familiar?  I’m not, no.  Bob Engle, the Dodgers international scout, compared him to David Wells.  I totally believe that was meant as a compliment.  Ryu doesn’t look like he’s missed many feedings of kimchi.  He’s a chunky-physique’d, control-minded lefty like Wells was.  Because of his park and his ability to command his pitches, I’m gonna say he’ll beat Darvish’s first year in the bigs for ratios, but come well short of him for Ks.”  And that’s me quoting me!  UPDATE:  Ryu showed up fat to camp.  No, not Ryu you, Ryu– Forget it.  Dodgers are now wondering if Ryu can make the rotation.  I still love the numbers he put up in Japan, but without a bullet train and some serious tonkatsu, I’m not sure how well he’s going to translate.  2013 Projections:  8-6/3.95/1.19/110

66. Alexi Ogando – One year, he’s a starter.  One year, he’s a reliever.  One year, he’s a production assistant on Sweet Genius in charge of shaving Ron-Ben Israel’s head.  There’s a chance for upside with Ogando if he can carry his K-rate from his relieving days into his starting, but if his year starting is any indication, that probably won’t happen.  At least he’s not manscaping RBI anymore.  2013 Projections:  12-9/3.77/1.15/135

67. Chris Tillman – Last year he had a 2.93 ERA, but had a huge amount of help with a .221 BABIP, which hid his 4.34 xFIP.  His K-rate was under seven after routinely being above nine in the minor leagues.  Due to the suppressed BABIP, this cautionary tale of a top pitching prospect still not performing in the major leagues after six years in the minors isn’t as clear as it could be.  He still really isn’t there.  Or at least as of last year he wasn’t.  With another year under his belt, he could finally put it together.  The long road to fantasy success for Tillman will be where I point when people are like, “Hey, Grey, are you wearing pants in your profile pic?  I hope not!  Anyway, when do you think top pitching prospect Gerrit Cole will be called up?”  Or Taillon, Bundy, Bauer, et al (not the Israeli airline).  2013 Projections:  9-10/3.87/1.32/142

68. Alex Cobb – Tillman’s projections came out slightly worse than those of Cobb, but I ended up ranking them in this order because Tillman has slightly bigger upside, while Cobb is slightly safer.  At this point in the rankings, you don’t want safer.  The upside argument for Tillman is in his first start in the big leagues when he touched 97 MPH.  If Alex Cobb were in a convertible moving at eight miles per hour and he threw as hard as he could, he wouldn’t hit 97 MPH.  He would also get a cruising ticket if he were driving that slow at the Jersey Shore.  2013 Projections:  10-8/3.86/1.30/147

69. Edwin Jackson – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Lohse.  I call this tier, “The opposite argument.”  What I mean by this tier name is there’s an argument to be made to fill out the back of your staff from this tier rather than an upside tier.  I make the opposite argument.  The reality is none of these guys are staying on your team for very long if they struggle in April.  You go to the Stream-o-Nator until someone else sticks.  Last year, on the solid Nationals team, Jackson had a line of 10-11/4.03/1.22/168.  He’s now on the Cubs.  If this offseason move screams to you someone who’s going to get better, give me some of what you’re smoking.  For full disclosure purposes — or porpoises if dolphins are reading — there was one stat I wasn’t able to account for in Edwin’s line.  He had the 2nd best percentage in the majors for swings and misses generated from strikes.  Top five:  Hamels, Edwin, Scherzer, Dickey, Samardzija.  That’s about the best company any pitcher can keep.  To keep it in perspective, Lincecum, Halladay and Anibal were all in the top 8 the previous year.  Liriano was the best in 2010.  F-Liriano had a 5+ ERA in 2011, if you need a reminder.  So Jackson might nudge his Ks up even further, but he will continue to struggle to have an ERA below 4.  2013 Projections:  9-12/4.11/1.33/179

70. Shaun Marcum – Missed a large portion of 2012 due to elbow tightness and when he returned his velocity wasn’t there.  Hey, maybe he can star in the stage adaption of, “No Velocity for Old Men.”  2013 Projections:  9-7/3.84/1.29/145

71. Matt Harrison – He took the biggest dive from the end of the season rankings to here, and the Rangers didn’t play one game, unless you count the game of chicken they played with Josh Hamilton and lost.  Last year, Harrison had 18 wins and a 3.29 ERA with a 4.13 xFIP (nah, that ain’t lucky).  Here’s my theory:  George Harrison did all that touchy-feely singing about My Sweet Lord and Hare Krishna, but since George is no longer with us, there’s some leftover karma floating around the universe for a Harrison, so Matt was the recipient of said karma.  Or not.  Just a theory!  Also, Harrison gets no Ks whatsoever.  He’ll be a matchups starter vs. the Mariners and in interleague.  2013 Projections: 13-10/3.88/1.29/130

72. James McDonald – His first and 2nd half were night and day, Al B. Sure.  His pre-All-Star break 2.37 ERA was sixth best in the majors and his 0.97 WHIP was seventh best.  His 2nd half was the worst thing God ever spit up.  Due to BABIP, he wasn’t that good in the 1st half or that bad in the 2nd half.  So you throw out the good, and you throw out the bad and you got The Facts of the Averagest Pitcher, The Facts of the Averagest Pitcher… If you sing that about 200 times, it gets catchy.  Trust me.  2013 Projections:  10-9/4.01/1.28/155

73. Tim Hudson – He’s gonna be 38 years old this year, which in pitcher years is 38 (years don’t change for pitchers; that’s for dogs, silly).  Now 38 years in his arm’s age is… Well, that’s the same too.  Tim Hudson is so old he eats Nerds candy made from wax manufactured by Benjamin Franklin.  Truth.  2013 Projections:  12-7/3.90/1.24/100

74. Kyle Lohse – Member what I said about Harrison 367 words ago (I counted; thanks, OCD!)?  Lohse now takes the title of dropping the most from the end of the season to preseason rankings.  Lohse is exactly the kind of starter I would never draft.  I’m obviously not alone as he still didn’t have any offers to sign as of this writing.  “I’m calling on Kyle Lohse’s behalf and he wants you to know he would happily sign with the Diamondbacks.”  Kevin Towers, “Kyle, is this you calling again?”  *20 second pause*  “Kyle, I hear you breathing.”  2013 Projections:  9-12/4.09/1.29/130

75. Bud Norris – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the top 100 starters for 2013 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “Schoolboy Q and Kendrick Lamar.” They are the new crop of rappers you should be listening to.  Download Good Kid M.A.A.D. City and Habits & Contradictions, in that order.  If you only want one song from either album, download Lamar’s B*tch Don’t Kill My Vibe.  (The asterisk is replacing a U.  The song is about Butch Patrick.)  If you ask the populace, they’ll all know Kanye and Jay-Z, they might not know these two.  Then Schoolboy Q or Kendrick will come out with another album this year and suddenly everyone will know them or they’ll disappoint and fall back to obscurity.  That’s the guys in this tier.  They all have a chance to blow up in the good way or in the bad way.  Someone from this late in the rankings will outperform preseason projections.  It happens every year.  It could be Norris.  It could be any of these guys.  Norris’s xFIP last year was 4.12, year before it was 3.73, 3.96 in 2010.  Last year he had the best K-rate of his career.  If he can actually throw 200 IP for the first time in his career (at 28 years old it shouldn’t be impossible), he could have his first 200 K season and a sub-4 ERA.  All he needs to do is shave a half walk off his 3.53 BB/9 from last year.  That won’t be easy, but doable.  Bud, don’t kill my vibe!  2013 Projections:  8-10/3.90/1.33/190

76. Jason Hammel – For full disclosure, I almost ranked Hammel about 35 spots higher.  I really like him.  Then I got to thinking, which is something I try to avoid, and I know that you can wait until the last round to draft Hammel, there’s no reason to rank him higher.  Last year, he threw his fastball almost a mile per hour faster (93.6) and forced a ton more ground balls.  Assuming his knee is fine (he wasn’t 100% confident it would be last I read), get him.  2013 Projections:  10-11/3.67/1.26/175

77. Dylan Bundy – I already went over my Dylan Bundy 2013 fantasy.  I wrote it while watching the Michael Jordan plays baseball 30 for 30.  What a waste of an hour that was.  Way to phone it in, Ron Shelton.  That’s why no one’s green-lighting the sequel, White Men Still Can’t Jump.  2013 Projections:  8-3/3.40/1.10/150 in 140 innings

78. Shelby Miller – I already went over my Shelby Miller 2013 fantasy.  I dictated it from what I heard after I put a seashell to my ear.  2013 Projections: 10-4/3.63/1.27/155 in 150 innings

79. Andrew Cashner – He’s already had his first setback of the season and the season is two months away.  He’ll start the year on the DL and won’t return until the end of April.  He probably won’t start more than fifteen games all year, but I’ll still grab him because of his upside.  I draft Cashner for the hell of it, just for the yell I get… Mmm mmm mmm, for the smell of it!  2013 Projections:  6-7/3.35/1.24/100

80. Kyle Kendrick – Kendrick’s a tough guy to draft due to Charlie Manuel’s use of him.  He’s like the pitching version of Domonic Brown.  Manuel said this offseason, “Kendrick, go get Pa some straw, I needs to be chewing before the rooster come-a-callin’!”  Five years ago, the Phils pegged Kendrick to be a starter.  Five years later, he’s still bouncing between the bullpen and the rotation.  If I was 100% sure he’d be a starter all year, I would’ve ranked him about 30 spots higher.  I like Kendrick.  It’s more about whether or not the Phillies like him.  2013 Projections:  12-10/3.72/1.25/130

148 Responses

  1. Mike says:
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    Nice work. Fought off sleep until 3am et to read todays post, them realized i just ruined my breakfast time. Shit! cashner injury a real bummer, thought i had a slick trade in nl only auction for a $5 cashner, now hes too risky. Ugh.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Mike: Yeah, he’s always injured…

  2. Tehol Beddict says:
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    CASHNER!!!!!! Cy young candidate in 2014? do you think he remains a starter or will he eventually go to pen? Your “shoop” reference just made my night. kudos.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Tehol Beddict: Ha, thanks… I think he goes to the bullpen because he can’t stay healthy in the rotation, but ya never know…

  3. costaricanchata says:
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    this post lends credence to the theory that you write jingles to augment your left-coast
    hollywood life-style while awaiting your big break-through as a fancy shmancy screen-writer .
    (good thing uncle bob didn’t sap your family’s entire musical gene pool) .

    while some may focus on the statistical insight , this bloodhound is hot on the trail of
    discovering your true identity .
    smelly shelly to penny …. “why , this isn’t a factory at all !”
    though i must admit you do run a pretty efficient operation here .
    so , there’s that .

    sing away .

  4. TheNewGuy says:
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    Some of these guys look real interesting flyers, Id sure like to get Harvey so late.

    Working on a deal in my keeper league, want to aquire a top prospect for my farm team:

    I give- Encarnacion ($1) and Butler ($7) for Hosmer ($6), Moustakas ($0) and Profar (prospect)

    Held out for more, these guys can be signed for an extra 3/6/9 bucks for 1/2/3 years.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @TheNewGuy: Doesn’t sound so great…

  5. bossmanjunior says:
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    Lend me your ear..of corn? Here is my two cents on Cobb.

    There are multiple reasons to like Cobb in 2013. First off, his peripherals are excellent. FIP in the mid 3′s, neutral BABIP, and the highest gb% in the American League at 58.8%, second behind Cahill overall. With an improved defense this offseason, his luck could dramatically improve. If you take our his complete game 8 ER stinker against the Royals, that overall ERA drops to a much more palatable 3.72 ERA (In his defense, I’ve never seen so many bloobers and bleeders in a single game).

    Secondly, Cobb improved as the season went on. He maintained a low walk rate below 3 BB/9, but saw an uptick in strike outs and luck based results.

    • bossmanjunior says:
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      @bossmanjunior:

      Much like his FIP beater friend (I keep telling FIP he’s no good for her!), Cobb is even better with men on base and doesn’t get rattled. Small sample size alert, Cobb didn’t issue a single walk in his 9 high leverage innings. Last 2 months of the season his K/9 was close to 8 per 9. Its also worth mentioning he was recovering from a surgery to remove a rib (I assume Marilyn Manson was his medical advisor), so his velocity and “feel” didn’t come back until mid season, posting a 3.42 ERA in the second half.

      Much like other guys in this tier (Fiers and Griffin), he lacks a plus fastball but has plus secondary offerrings. Smooth delivery, repeatable mechanics, athletic frame with good arm action make him a very safe pick. There is still projectability in terms of improving the strikeouts (regularly over 25% k-rate in minors) but the elite ground ball rate is what seperates him from the pack, likely the new Cahill of the AL.

  6. Mike says:
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    Cobb is decent. Not all good though, they have a lot of guys for that spot, his leash is short, at least that has to be taken into account at this point…

    • bossmanjunior says:
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      @Mike:

      Niemann will the odd man out, not Cobb. As soon as Niemann is injured, a matter of when not if, look for Archer or possibly even Odorizzi to take the spot. Rays really like Cobb.

  7. schlitzy says:
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    Thanks for the Schoolboy Q and Kendrick Lamar recommendations. I have one for you – Action Bronson. 2 albums, Bon Appitite…Bitch!!! where Action rhymes about his love of salmon, weed and finely aged stilton. The other album is “Well Done” which is equally good but less food-centric.

    Here’s how I found out about this guy. I read a review of a live show he did in Brooklyn with a bunch of other rappers and at the end of his set he threw weed and paper-wrapped steaks from Peter Lugers out to the audience. Sold.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @schlitzy: I wanna go to his show! Cool, will check him out… Does he rhyme anything with sous-vide?

      • schlitzy says:
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        @Grey: I don’t remember any rhyme using sous-vide, but there was certainly one about expertly prepared salmon paired with dill.

  8. Rags says:
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    FYI, my work computer won’t let me visit your post about the Rockies because of a malware threat.

    “Content from cmi.netseer.com, a known malware distributor, has been inserted into this web page. Visiting this page now is very likely to infect your computer with malware.”

    Never happened to me before. Don’t know if it’s me or you, but thought you should know.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Rags: From Googling, looks like it’s a Chrome issue, is that what you’re using?

      • Rags says:
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        @Grey: yeah. i can tell it to click through if i want. it’s safe?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Looks fine to me… Looks like a Google Chrome issue…

  9. Jon says:
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    This list is golden. Lots of exciting names on here. Of the 80 SPs you’ve gone through so far, these are some guys that I know will be available in my draft: Ryu, Minor, Anibal, McCarthy, Fiers, Gee, Doubront, Ogando.

    Of those, who would you target to complement my Bumgarner, JZimm, Medlen, Lester and Anderson?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Jon: Ryu

  10. Johnson says:
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    12 team mixed keeper C/1B/2B/3B/SS/3x OF/UTIL. 1450 IP

    I’m keeping Braun, Kemp, Tulo, Zobrist, Craig, Simmons, Headley, W. Myers, Bumgarner, Anibal, Moore, Brett Anderson, Samardzija, Luebke, Wilhelmsen.

    Should I trade Bumgarner for Street and a pick where one of Lester/Lincecum/Scherzer/Haren should be available?

    • Jay29 says:
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      @Johnson: Bumgarner for Street + picking Scherzer might be a good move (for instance, Grey has Bum 9th and Max 12th among SPs), but only if you’re sure you can pick Scherzer. The rest of those guys probably aren’t worth it. Can you have the other owner pick for you and only make the deal if a good enough pitcher is there at that pick?

  11. Jeff says:
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    I have 1 FA pickup I can use before the season. Debating the following;

    OF’s – Adam Eaton, Ben Revere, Leonys Martin

    SP – Ryu

    RP – Grilli

    Looking for a player that might be worth keeping and has good upside for the season, position doesn’t matter at this point.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Jeff: Martin

  12. hhormann@gmail.com says:
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    You should’ve called the tier that started with Mike Tiers, “Tier(s) for Fiers.”

  13. mikey boy324 says:
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    Grey is their any picther(s) that your targeting in every draft?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Yeah, I’ll go over that when I do my pairings…

  14. Vacation says:
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    Gray,

    If you own NatGio in a keeper league and he’s your only pitcher heading into the draft how worried are you?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      About 20% chance of trouble…

  15. Jack Full of Hate says:
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    Now I got Chiddy Bang re-mixed with the Facts of Life Theme in my head. Only in razzball do these flavor combinations come together. It’s a sweet genius grey moment.

    My new count is 46 to 34 for the NL vs. AL arms.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ha… Nice… Yeah, not surprising with the NL arms outnumbering AL…

      • Jack Full of Hate says:
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        @Grey: Have you watched sweet genius, that dude gives me the creeps like birthday party clowns

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @Jack Full of Hate: Yeah, I think I mentioned him in one post recently… Creepy is the best word for him… He’s the number one food network personality capable of being arrested for a sex crime… Number two is the jerk from Chopped…

          • Jack Full of Hate says:
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            @Grey: the host of chopped?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Nah, Jeffrey Zakarian…

              • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                @Grey: I warmed up to him on next iron chef. He might be a weirdo and he might be a prick, but he is nowhere near as creepy as Anne Burrell. That chick has a major identity problem .

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  She’s Guy Fieri in a dress…

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                    @Grey: she owns a dress?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      It’s all she wears, tight flowery ones that go to her knees…

  16. Brian says:
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    Hi Grey,

    In my keeper league I am thinking about who to keep for my last keeper spot. Who would you choose from this list (with 2013 salary if kept)?

    Dan Uggla 40
    David Freese 4
    Curtis Granderson 25
    Josh Willingham 7
    Cole Hamels 38
    Addison Reed 7
    Fernando Rodney 5
    Jordan Zimmerman 22

    Thanks in advance,

    Brian

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Freese…You’re not giving me enough info though…

      • Brian says:
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        @Grey:

        well, its an 10 team mixed league with 350 cap (whatever left at draft is your faab), std cats except OBP instead of AVG. top 3 teams keep 9 others 10. we also have minor league keepers 10 per team.

        my current other keepers with 2013 salary:

        Yadier $1, Allen Craig $1, Miggy $47, Zobrist $16, Adam Jones $29, Desmond Jennings $4, Kimbrel $7 , Greinke $27

        If you need other info let me know.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          @Brian: I’d keep Zimmermann…

  17. Jay29 says:
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    Bud Norris is always worth a draft pick on the chance that he gets some luck to go along with his Ks, but this year I’m not too optimistic with the Astros’ move to the AL. Gonna be hard for him to take a step forward.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Agreed…His Ks always make him worthy of a look… If he has a good BABIP year, he could have a nice ERA… Really needs to cut his walks though…

    • prezii says:
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      @Grey@Jay29: i agree as well. I always take a late round pick on ol buddy just for K’s but i think this year im going to hold off. You’re welcome ERA.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        @prezii: Ha!

  18. Mr. Gray: This list is like walking by the “Bargain Bin” of Xmas Chocolate Mint MMs (Yum -Yum) in January at Rite Aid… I can’t just walk by… I buy this bargain DRUG by the shopping cart full…

    The list 61 – 68 are all quite compelling… Tossing in a Harrison, a Norris and a Hammel into the shopping cart too…

    After filling the cart, I walk around the store with my cart until there is nobody in line at the checkout stand – the one, where the new girl is – who doesn’t know you – then I race up there and buy it – I sit in my car and devour 3 bags before I drive off to a quiet lane for a good cleansing self induced vomit – Afterwards, driving back to house – I always manage to empty a few more bags…

    After I’ve made myself sick and fat eating them for a day or 2, I always wind-up throwing the bulk of them away or giving them away to people I really don’t care for… Do you have the same problem???

    You have to start a process of elimination here with this shopping cart full of bargain candy… My tool for this is Ks – per usual… Unless, someone really stands out… They don’t… OK that leaves

    Mike Fiers

    Matt Harvey – Wins are the only negative IMO (Probably not to you, Razzman… After all, Cowgirl is your X factor for a big Mets year)

    Felix Doubront – No Way!!! Never happen????

    Bud Norris – Are the 8 Wins his or the team’s total for 2013???

    Jason Hammel – What is there not to like – Unless, It’s his proximity to Dylan Bundy – perhaps the worst Name Factor in MLB today…. Dylan (cringe) is bad enough all by itself without having the atrocious “Bundy” tagged on it..

    Time to whittle down some more ..

    Mike Fiers – Seeing, I’m on the bus with my Cheesehead on already and a satchel of my favorite mustards and relishes for the wursts is next to me.. Why not??

    Jason Hammel – Hoping, his K/9 PED regime is not discovered (this year, anyways) and D Bundy is traded..

    This is my quick Miyagi Method scientific analysis of your top 80 list… That is the beauty of the Miyagi Method it is is quick – and unencumbered by thoroughness too, of course…

    Notes***

    The Met’s do have some interesting talent… again, Wins a problem for me

    Pick no Texas pitchers who are not YU

    AJ Griffin’s mid season arm troubles last year are a RED FLAG for me… Let the others suffer regression…

    *****&&&&***** Psst!!!! Psst!!! Mr. Gray…. I don’t want to let others on here hear this.. But, I think “ The prophet” (the one who had all the nasties to say about you, Friday).. Is my Suzanne Somers look-a-like who posts on here.. Not certain???… It was just the way some of the phrases were put… Be careful!!! Had to call the police the other day on him… When he was standing out front of my house screaming at the top of his lungs (He’s got big ones too)… That fella is a dozy!!!..

    Needless to say, He will not be on my management team this year… Hey, we all make mistakes in life. .C’est la vie….

    • @t moore:

      I took a look at a Tout Mock Draft – Full of the requisite “deep, in-the-know Tout surprise picks… So predictably boring…

      But, a few names that shocked me… Cespedes Early 3rd.(Yikes!!!). Yu Late 2nd (double Yikes!!)… And the idiots were chasing 2nd baseman early after Cano (good news)..

      There were plenty of others too.. Seager went much earlier than expected – But, it was a Tout draft… Should not read these things as they scare me a bit… But, they are fun in late January

      Like to see a Tout Mock Draft you have participated in posted somewhere???

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @t moore: re: Norris — Ha! You don’t want any part of Texas starters not named Yu… Wait, Yu went in the 2nd round of a mock? Yikes…

      • @Grey:

        Scary ain’t it!!!!!!

  19. Worm Turner says:
    (link)

    Just sent a $20 Strasburg and a $25 Starlin Castro for a $38 Braun.
    Did I give up too much here or was it a fair trade?

    Have Profar and Machado to make up for Starlin, the latter I’m hoping will move back to SS within the next couple years. Its Stras thats giving me some doubts, I feel ok w/ Scherzer but after that I have no pitching….
    H2H, linear points, mixed 12 team keeper.

    Thanks again Grey for all you do here!

    • Worm Turner says:
      (link)

      @Worm Turner:
      Looks like I’ll have about $130 left for the draft out of $260, was planning on $100 for 4SP and 5 RP. I only need to fill C and bench otherwise.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Worm Turner: I wouldn’t have made the trade; it’s close to fair…

      • Worm Turner says:
        (link)

        @Grey:
        Thanks for the reply, could you elaborate a bit?
        Is it the $20 value that puts you off, or do you feel Stras is just too special period?
        I kept/ keep having nightmares he’d blow up his arm again with that delivery.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Strasburg and Castro are both special and at decent prices… Braun is great, but isn’t much of a bargain…

  20. jimbo says:
    (link)

    I know people say there’s a lot of depth in pitching, but i don’t really see it.

    Think I’m going to spend more this year on early sp. Maybe a strasburg/darvish combo…then ignore pitching until last 8 rounds (16-23).

    Plenty of maybes and what-ifs that i can’t confidently draft while offense is available.

    Harvey? Vargas? CJ Wilson? Free agent in week one? What’s the diff?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @jimbo: There’s about 60 starters total to choose from and all you need is 6 (depending on league)… That’s decent depth…

      • jimbo says:
        (link)

        @Grey:
        10 pitchers on our roster, at least two rp and at most four.

        I guess my question is, couldn’t you make a case that strasburg + 5 in-season pickups would be competitive? Why stress about it in the draft?

        Sometimes i hang on to a player longer than i should because he was my X round pick. Every year u can look back and make a winning staff from just free agents. I want to be first in line for waiver gems in 2013…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, if they’re the right 5 in-season pickups… Maybe 10 in-season pick-ups are great each year… You’re making half of them? Anyone else in your league?

  21. Kraftster says:
    (link)

    I keep waiting to see Dan Straily’s name in the rankings. When will my wait be over?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Kraftster: Well, there’s only one more starter post, so you’ll see him soon…

  22. DKohn says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey!

    Question, if you were A-Rod (and what a downgrade that would be), and MLB ruled that no matter what the Yankees have to pay the $114 million guaranteed they still owe him, what would be his motivation to stop doing steroids?

    He either:

    A) Stops doing steroids, and continues to suck balls more and more, until he is mentally unsure of whether he should drive to Yankee Stadium, or the site of Ron Jeremy’s new flick “Sack Cleaners 6”, where no matter what he does people will always regard him as one of the biggest cheaters in the history of sports.

    Or

    B) Keeps doing steroids, and keeps the microscopic hope of breaking the all time home record alive, making additional millions in incentives, with the possibility of a 50 and 100 game vacation mid season, where again no matter what he does from now on people will always regard him as one of the biggest cheaters in the history of sports.

    This obviously is predicated on the belief that the Yankees no matter what HAVE to pay him the money, but seems pretty unlikely his contract would be voided under these current or subsequent steroid charges. Ergo the future of baseball…Steroid Clauses!!

    • Worm Turner says:
      (link)

      @DKohn:

      C) Baseball clubs that give out RIDICULOUS contracts deserve to keep them.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @DKohn: Ha… Yeah, I hear ya… He has to keep doing steroids so none of his girlfriends can beat him up…

      • DKohn says:
        (link)

        @Grey: hahaha, if I make that into a sign and bring it to Yankee stadium, I’ll be sure to credit you.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Thank you.

  23. Snake Hips says:
    (link)

    I just read your Manny Machado post… So you are comparing Machado to a young Hanley and young Miggy… That warms my nether regions. Who do you like more as a long term keeper (H2H pts league) Lawrie in the 21st round or Machado in the 26th? I own them both but will only keep one of them this year..

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Snake Hips: Yeah, Machado is gonna be a good one… I’d go with him in the 26th…

  24. Commish Cauda says:
    (link)

    20-team, H2H-Points Keeper League w/$70 cap

    Keep Rasmus $5 or Garza $7?

    Neither is a good value, but I have the room for one.

  25. Worm Turner says:
    (link)

    Been lurking on MDC and Stanton has been consistently being drafted as late as 56 for a month now.
    What gives is it because they think his name is still ‘Mike’ or are people worried about his singularity on that ‘roster’ and he’ll get walked a lot if someone perhaps made it on base?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I think once Yahoo and ESPN rank him in the top 20, that won’t matter…

      • prezii says:
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        @Grey: im beyond ready for these rankings to be over… Enuff with the foreplay grey, spoon me damnit!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I’ll spoon you, prezii, but we’re still a few weeks away from pitchers and catchers even reporting…

          • prezii says:
            (link)

            @Grey: thanks grey.. its good to know i have a spoony call when i need it. and i kowww.. but were getting closer! Were gettin closer.. in the meantime, ur foreplay satisfies me.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              We have two months for tantric…

              • VinWins

                VinWins says:
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                @Grey: The first pitchers and catchers will begin arriving at their camps in Arizona and Florida next Monday. Position players will begin reporting four days later, on Feb. 15.

                • VinWins

                  VinWins says:
                  (link)

                  @VinWins: Because of next month’s World Baseball Classic, reporting dates have been moved up.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Oh, well, around there!

  26. Cole says:
    (link)

    i did a 15 teamer on mdc this weekend. things were going well until the 7th rd when instead of taking my first pitcher (JZ was the guy) i took rios. Once things got back to me everyone from your second tier of guys you are targeting, the tier that ends with chapman, were gone. Naturally, I panicked, and drafted with my next 3 picks Neise, Samardzija, and Parker. So my question is, if i miss out on the second tier of guys you like, how many of the next tier should I try to land? I kinda like the way the 3 guys i did draft compliment each other, but i’d much rather have Zimmerman at the top of my rotation.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’ll go over all of this in the pairings post coming next week…

  27. Bobby says:
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    You couldn’t get Michael Fiers if you were fking Michael Fiers!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Ha, yup!

  28. Jon says:
    (link)

    I need 10 starters in my keeper league. I’m not crazy about the starting depth this year.

  29. Jon says:
    (link)

    When you say there are 60 guys – are you just talking about the top 60, or do you mean there are 60 guys you like and will draft? Will that be more clear in the pairings post?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I mean 60 guys from here and there that I like….

  30. Steve says:
    (link)

    Lowrie on his way to Oakland (it says here). Prospects going the other way…

    • Steve says:
      (link)

      @Steve: #Athletics acquire Jed Lowrie and Fernando Rodriguez from the #Astros for Chris Carter, Brad Peacock and minor leaguer Max Stassi.

      (From Athletics Twitter feed)

      • Sky

        Sky says:
        (link)

        Chris Carter gets a chance this year then, it looks like. Maybe Carlos Pena can help him with his K-rate…wait…

        • Steve says:
          (link)

          @Sky: They’re converting Minute Maid into a wind farm.

          • Sky

            Sky says:
            (link)

            Most places put wind farms up where very few people will be. Makes sense to build one in Minute Maid.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Hmm… Actually not a bad move by Houston…

      • Steve says:
        (link)

        @Grey: According to Olney, A’s have been after Lowrie all off-season.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Ah…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Wait, it says where… I don’t see it anywhere…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Interesting… Looks good for both sides…

          • Wallpaper Paterson says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Interesting trade between heated division rivals.

          • Steve says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Ken Rosenthal saying that Peacock has a real good shot at being in the rotation this year. Thoughts?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              @Steve: I fell for that plumage last year… I’ll look at him in Spring Training but he was dreadful last year in the minors…

              • Steve says:
                (link)

                @Grey: You’d think he’d have no trouble ‘fanning’ hitters. (sad trombone)

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Ha… WAH…Wah…wah…

                  • Steve says:
                    (link)

                    @Grey: But, seriously – A question. You quote a lot more saber-type stats than you used to (say, 3-4 years ago) both in your rankings and in player evaluation in general.

                    Are you actively researching/using them more now, or is it that you always did and just didn’t talk about them as much?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
                      (link)

                      I always used them, didn’t realize I was quoting them more…

    • Sky

      Sky says:
      (link)

      But I can’t make any snide comments about it on that post anymore. Sigh, guess I have to do it here…um, your mustache looks unkept. Yeah, take that!

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Why would you purposely hurt my feelings?

        • Sky

          Sky says:
          (link)

          @Grey: I’m trying to callous you up for more anger when you get into your full rankings. There’s no crying in baseball, Grey!

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            There’s actually a lot of crying in fantasy baseball though…

            • Sky

              Sky says:
              (link)

              @Grey: You said you’d never tell! I was cutting Onions!

    • potus says:
      (link)

      @Grey: What happens to Wallace with the K brother’s clogging up 1B/DH duties? Does he get traded again to fulfill that 1st round promise…moved to 3b full-time perhaps? Do you think his projections will get changed due to this deal?

      Mustached appreciated.

      -YHL

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        I believe Carter will be playing left field now… Wallace and Pena remain a clusterfudgie the whale of Ks…

        • Steve says:
          (link)

          @Grey: Some Twitter chatter (for all that’s worth) that he might be an effective right-handed DH…

          • Grey

            Grey says:
            (link)

            Who?

            • Steve says:
              (link)

              @Grey: OK, might have got slightly carried away. It was Rosenthal, and he was referring to him DH-ing when playing in Minute Maid. Rosenthal is pretty reliable as a source, though.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
                (link)

                Sorry, meant who as in which player DH’ing? Carter or Wallace?

                • Steve says:
                  (link)

                  @Grey: ‘Clarence’ Carter. He be strokin’…

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
                    (link)

                    I could see him, Wallace and Pena doing a 3-way split of 1B & DH and Carter getting some looks in the outfield with Wallace getting looks at 3B…

  31. TheNewGuy says:
    (link)

    Tough call on a Josh Hamilton keeper question.

    Great year last year for me but I don’t like the move to Cali. Here are my choices: 1 year $25, 2 years $28, 3 years $30 or I can send him and his lousy work ethic to the garbage dump.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Go one year…

  32. Jasen says:
    (link)

    Hey Grey. Need help with my draft.
    12 team H2H 5X5 keeper league(we keep 10). Standard Yahoo scoring
    My squad of 10
    C-
    1B-M.TEIXEIRA
    2B-D.PEDROIA
    3B-B.LAWRIE
    SS-H.RAMIREZ
    OF-M,KEMP
    OF-C.GRANDERSON
    OF-

    SP-C.HAMELS
    SP-M.BUMGARNER
    RP-
    RP-
    P-A.CHAPMAN
    P-K.MEDLEN

    So as you can see I have a good start with my starting pitching. Didnt want to keep that many starters but they were in my best 10. Draft has just started. I have bookended picks coming up. these are some of the best available FAs

    SHIN-SOO CHOO
    E.HOSMER
    W.ROSARIO
    A.GORDON
    M.LATOS
    J.ALTUVE
    R.HALLADAY
    V.MARTINEZ
    J.MONTERO
    I.DAVIS
    Y.DARVISH
    H.PENCE
    N.CRUZ

    Which of these guys should i target?
    Thanks

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Choo, Latos, V-Mart… In that order… Though I don’t know if you have corner and middle infielders or UTIL spots…

      • Jasen says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        We have two util spots. Kind of surprised you wouldn’t go after one of the younger C’s with Both Rosario and MONTERO still available.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I wouldn’t go after any of the catchers off the bat… Because they’re all there… Obviously no one keeps them to begin with…

  33. Jon says:
    (link)

    Does Chris Carter move up in the top 1B list now that he has a full-time job in HOU? If so, what number would he be?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      He’s above Moss, but not above Yonder, he’s gonna hit .240 with the chance for .225…

      • Jack Full of Hate says:
        (link)

        @Grey: I don’t think the BA changes because oak provided him a little more protection. but his homers can go up 5-10 in Minute maid. What do you think?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Stopping him is his health… Of he can stay on the field I could see 22 homers from him, but it’s best case scenario type stuff with that…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Oh, I thought you meant Lowrie… Who are you referring to Carter?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          If so, I could see 25 homers from Carter, but yeah he’s gonna struggle to hit .250…

          • Jack Full of Hate says:
            (link)

            @Grey: he might be that split bench bat once i get some in season data on him. I don’t care about the Prime Rib guy.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              I think he’ll probably be closer to 80/20 play/bench…

  34. Steve says:
    (link)

    Re: Point Shares, yeah I guess. Just looking at some guys that you kinda like and PS kinda doesn’t.

  35. Pun says:
    (link)

    Post is an excellent example of how good the writing and advice this sites puts up is.

    should try that new Pusha T mix tape and that new A$AP CD

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks! And I love the new A$AP… Good shizz…

  36. Terrence Mann says:
    (link)

    Love the Griffin rundown. In the words of Krusty the Clown, “I thought I was an Anti-Semite but it turns out I’m just a self-hating Jew.”

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      HA! Thanks!

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