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This is almost the end of the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  With these top 80 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s a few names that I’m really gunning for on my teams… My deeper teams.  On last year’s top 80, there was only guy who truly emerged (Edwin Jackson), so I imagine a lot of you won’t need most of the names on this list.  But humor me.  There’s tiers and projections mentioned for everyone.  Anyway, here’s the top 80 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball:

61. Benrich Shardard – This is a one person pormanteau/tier made of three players:  Ben Sheets, Erik Bedard and Rich Harden.  I call this tier, “Together they’re starting 30 games and vying for a Cy Young.”  They’re some of my favorite pitchers to watch when they’re healthy, but, well, ya know.  (Here’s more on Ben Sheets.)  2010 Projections:  Combined 180-day DL

62. Gavin Floyd – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Danks.  I call this tier, “White Sox starters that I’m respectively excited about, lukewarm over and cold on.”  Would you believe I’m endorsing Gavin Floyd? As De Niro said in the Spider scene, “What’s the world coming to?!”  Floyd made positive gains in K-rate and walk rate while throwing less of his fastball and more of his slider.  Whatever works, Yellnikoff.  I’m not predicting Floyd’s going to be a Cy Young contender, but real late you can do worse.  2010 Projections:  14-10/3.90/1.26/175

63. Mark Buehrle – Buerhrle’s what they used to call plump prostitutes in the early 1800s, a work horse, but horse was spelled different.  I have no problem owning Buerhle on certain teams, but you’re not getting the perfect game pitcher or the 6 runs in 5 inning one.  Somewhere in the middle like Monie Love.  2010 Projections:  13-10/4.00/1.25/125

64. John Danks –  He’s the opposite of Floyd.  It’s almost like the gains Floyd made were taken from Danks.  Weird!  2010 Projections:  12-7/4.15/1.30/155

65. Wade Davis – This is a new tier.  This tier goes until Latos.  I call this tier, “They’re going to be good ones, but right now they’re more or less rookie pitchers.”  The nice thing about Davis, even more so than Feliz and Strasburg, who appeared in the top 60 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball, is he may actually give you close to a complete season.  He could throw close to 200 innings without turning his career over to Dr. Freeze.  The bad is his walks haven’t been great.  2010 Projections:  8-10/3.75/1.34/160

66. Chris Tillman – As I explained in the Double Stuff Orioles post, I’m not a huge fan of rookie pitchers.  Technically, Tillman’s not a rookie, but more or less the same applies.  The more is they can still be very up and down.  The less is they have some major league time under their belt and can begin to pitch up to their capability.  Let’s continue this in Matusz’s blurb.  2010 Projections:  7-12/3.65/1.32/150

67. Brian Matusz – As I was saying, if they get up to their capability then they shoot up the rankings and become far more valuable.  So you have to weigh how much upside you want from your last starter.  I already went over my Matusz fantasy.  2010 Projections:  6-9/3.75/1.30/145

68. Mat Latos – Ah, sweet, sweet, HodgePadre.  He has a sick, as in healthy, K-rate in the minors.  But, as the kids used to say when I was a kid, he’s hella young.  Hey, I’m Old Hella.  2010 Projections:  6-7/4.15/1.32/125 in 20 starts.

69. Chris Young – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Penny.  I call this tier, “Vets that probably won’t see a resurgence, but they can add some much needed stability to the back of a staff.”  Young may be the Padres number one starter, but that’s like being the tallest dwarf.  Cristal Young had a 91 MPH fastball when he made his debut in 2004 with the Rangers.  In 2009, he was regularly clocked at 85.  At 91, you can leave it in the upper part of the strikezone.  At 85, not so much.  Not to mention, every guy he walks gets an automatic double.  Assuming he’s healthy, he could make a decent fifth fantasy starter, but don’t expect him to be a number 2.  2010 Projections:  7-10/4.00/1.28/145

70. Hiroki Kuroda – He doesn’t K many guys or stay healthy, but he manages to keep his ratios in check.  Good name to look at late.  2010 Projections:  9-6/3.65/1.24/100

71. Aaron Harang – I read somewhere some genius was saying something about Chris Young, “Assuming he’s healthy, he could make a decent fifth fantasy starter, but don’t expect him to be a number 2.”  Same could be said about Harang.  2010 Projections:  12-9/4.05/1.35/155

72. Bronson Arroyo – Trade for him in July.  Look at his splits to see what I’m talking about it.  2010 Projections:  12-8/4.25/1.34/140

73. John Maine – I wish I could tell you he’s more than a big question mark, but he’s not.  If he looks good in spring training, I could see him going up draft sheets.  But I could also see him pitching well in April then going down with shoulder problems.  2010 Projections:  9-8/4.15/1.32/85 in 105 innings.

74. Brad Penny – Penny’s my least favorite type of starter.  Overweight with an STD from Alyssa Milano? No, random italicized voice.  Penny’s devoid of Ks and upside.  He should be perfectly meh in the NL while Dave Duncan sprinkles pixie dust on his melon.  Penny might even be great for stretches like he was in San Fran in September of last year.  He also had an obscene BABIP in San Fran.  He’s a mid-4 ERA pitcher.  It’s meh, but sometimes meh is what the doctor ordered.  2010 Projections:  13-10/4.40/1.37/110

75. Brandon Morrow - This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end of the top 80 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “Eh, may as well end this sucker on a good note.”  These pitchers aren’t exactly exciting, but compared to some other names on this list, they’re a’ight.  As most of you know, when in doubt, I’m going for NL starters at the end of a draft.  Then there’s Morrow.  There’s very few starters you’re getting this late that can pitch as well as Morrow.  Can he stay healthy?  Aw, heck’s no.  Does he walk far too many hitters?  Uh, yeah.  Still decent endgame gamble if he starts strong and you can flip him.  2010 Projections:  10-7/3.85/1.40/100

76. Homer Bailey – Do I think there’s a chance that you’ll draft him and drop him before May?  Yeah, probably.  But it’s a flier, that’s what fliers are for.  You can always grab someone off waivers if Bailey doesn’t work out.  Ringing endorsement, huh?  2010 Projections:  12-9/4.00/1.40/145

77. Ted Lilly – Lilly just feels safe.  Not safe for a 3.10 ERA again.  Not safe for 180 Ks again.  Not safe for 17 wins again.  Not safe to start the season healthy because of an injured shoulder.  But safe.  Hmm, maybe not safe, but I’d stash him on the DL for April to see what he can do when he returns.  2010 Projections:  10-6/3.85/1.10/100

78. Aroldis Chapman – Already went over my Aroldis Chapman fantasy.  2010 Projections: 5-3/3.75/1.37/70

79. Randy Wells – Not one of my all-time favorite types of upside picks because there’s not many strikeouts here.  On the bright side, there’s very few walks too.  2010 Projections:  14-7/3.75/1.25/130

80. Justin Masterson – Masterson’s heat died when he left the Sons of Sam Horns’ hornet nest, but that doesn’t mean something’s wrong with him.  He induces groundballs and gets strikeouts, that’s not a combo that should be scoffed at.  Even if the only people that scoff at something are in Merchant-Ivory films.  2010 Projections:  12-10/3.85/1.34/150

After the top 80 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s a ton of names, but here’s two that stand out.  One not good, one great:

Trevor Cahill – Cahill had a huge innings bump from ’08 to ’09 and he has no Ks.  Than, but no than.  2010 Projections:  8-12/4.50/1.40/80

Jonathan Sanchez – I’m a big fan of Jonathan Sanchez. Might end up owning him on multiple teams.  As Fonzie’s horse said, “Nay!”  I might own him on every team.  May draft him in a couple of AL-Only leagues just to keep snitches honest.  I wrote an entire post already about my Jonathan Sanchez fantasy.  He. Is. Dazzling.  That’s right, I brought out the tooly one word sentence gimmick to make a point.  This Sanchez isn’t dirty, he’s filthy.  2010 Projections:  14-7/3.75/1.38/200 <–optimistic, but you’re not paying me to be conservative.  In fact, this shizz is free.

From Around The Web

  1. Re: Gavin Floyd

    The goodfellas Deniro line you are referring to was stated during the Spider shooting incident. Not shoe shine scene.

    btw love the site

    Drew

  2. Real Tom says:
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    I giggle every now and then when I read this, but the SHARDARD post made me laugh pretty hard, only because I didn’t expect the 180 day DL as your only projection for a “player” you ranked 61st.

    BTW, I really wish the McCourts weren’t broke ass fools. Harang might be a Dodger and we would all be drafting him. (I still might draft him this year!) And promising Dodgers prospects wouldn’t be playing for the Indians, Orioles, and D-Backs. But that’s not fantasy. That’s sad sad reality.

    Also, the Reds defense got me thinking about Washburn’s performance last year ( I know, odd jump). Are there any pitchers that you would only draft because the defense behind them makes them a little more ownable?

  3. Tony says:
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    good read for something not interesting… Like grey said there might be one SP on this list that proves valuable, the rest are spot pitchers at best… Yawwwnnnnn….

    Lets get back to some interesting stuff grey, any posts coming for the afternoon?

  4. Jeff says:
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    Yovani Gallardo (#19) – 14 wins, 175K’s, 3.85 ERA, 1.32 WHIP
    Jonathan Sanchez(80+) – 14 wins, 200K’s, 3.75 ERA, 1.38 WHIP

    I think you are sand bagging Sanchez’s ranking so you can get him on all your teams!

  5. Eddy says:
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    Man I got depressed for a second when I started reading and read the name Benrich Shardard. I thought to myself, “I don’t even deserve to play fantasy baseball if by now I don’t know who the hell that guy is!” then I read 3 more lines and now after discovering his (their?) identity I wish I kinda wish I didn’t know them.

    Great post Grey, a lot of the funnies in this one!

  6. big o says:
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    @Jeff:
    someone’s paying attention

  7. big o says:
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    maybe sanchez only wins 9 games

  8. Antrim Warriors says:
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    Homer Bailey will be on my team. He had a damn strong finish last Sept, may be ready to take the next step.

  9. matthole says:
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    If Shaun Marcum can return to his past form he can be a nice late right flier too. He was dominant for a period 2 seasons ago. Then I searched him and found this:

    38. Shaun Marcum – Bummer his season was cut short by Dr. Freeze. We’ll see him on 2010 Sleeper lists. (Also, in 2010, your neighbor will have a flying car that you will be so sick of him parking in front of your 2nd floor bedroom window.) Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 9-7/3.39/1.16/123

  10. No Liriano? He lit it up in winter ball.

  11. Mikey boy324 says:
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    Grey you have to figure sanchez is gonna get taken before some of those guys on your top 80 in a 12 team league what round should I target him?

  12. Nate says:
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    @Grey: Any thoughts on Wade Leblanc as a potential sleeper? (Who wouldn’t want to dedicate valuable life-hours to the contemplation of obscure Padres borderline 5th starters?). He put together a pretty nice second half, he’s a former 2nd round pick with a solid minor league record save for an ugly 08, he gets Ks, and he pitches in a mighty nice park…

  13. sean says:
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    Gio Gonzalez? Undraftable in mixed leagues?

  14. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Jeff: gallardo has a track record. plus grey is more pessimistic about gallardo than many “experts”, and these rankings seem to be a combo of predicted draft order, perceived value, and grey’s personal projections. not to mention his sanchez predictions are admittedly optimistic. probably a “safer” prediction would be a low 4 era and a whip a tad above 1.40. if he gets 30 starts, the Ks should be there, and Ws are a crapshoot anyway.

    i will be looking to snag sanchez later in my draft, but i wouldn’t draft him before gallardo. even if you don’t believe in gallardo in 2010, it’s all relative, you don’t believe in him as a top ~20 SP (like he’s valued going into the season), but if he’s sitting there in the 15th round, you would jump on him in a heartbeat.

  15. Frank Rizzo says:
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    @Fman99: I’ve heard Liriano has his velocity back.

    The Sanchez projection is beyond optomistic……it’s stunning.

  16. Tarasco'sSecretStash says:
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    I’ve waited to write the following sentence since I started playing fantasy ball back in the early-aughts: I’m excited about Brad Penny! Duncan’s pixie dust is a powerful dust, and Penny’s my target to be this year’s Piniero Project. Last year his heater regained the couple ticks it was missing post-injury and again became a plus pitch (.22 R/100), and he throws it over 70% of the time, – a combination that puts him squarely in Duncan’s philosophical wheelhouse. If Duncs can lower his walk rate (a specialty of his) down into the low 2’s, Penny’s got the chance to be a really valuable league-average innings eater with win potential to stabilize the back of your rotation in a deep league.

  17. Tarasco'sSecretStash says:
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    @Frank Rizzo: I heard that too, he was supposedly sitting 92-93 in the DR, and more importantly he cut way down on his walks.

  18. nate marcum says:
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    @Tarasco’sSecretStash: Yeah guys, I have heard the same thing. Supposedly he has regained faith in that slider that had batters peeing their pants. I was burned by him last year, so I am a little hesitant, but i think as long as the hype machine doesn’t churn out article after article about his winter league, he should outproduce his ADP.

  19. Tony says:
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    @nate marcum: @Tarasco’sSecretStash: I dont think alot of people are gonna be jumping on that bandwagon again this year… he burned a ton of people, thankfully NOT ME.

    Where have you seen him go in mocks (talking liriano here)?

  20. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Drew _Pelham: Dur, my bad.

    @Real Tom: Nah, Washburn wasn’t drafted anywhere. You have to be ready to grab pitchers off waivers.

    @Tony: Sanchez is someone to look at.

    @Jeff: I’m just putting him a bit lower to highlight him. I already wrote the sleeper post. You should know how I feel about Sanchez.

    @Eddy: Thanks!

    @Antrim Warriors: Yeah, decent flier.

    @matthole: I decided he was someone better to go over in Spring Training because of he’s recovering from the injury.

    @Fman99: He’s getting his own sleeper post.

    @Mikey boy324: Probably 18th to 20th.

    @Nate: He’s not going to be drafted outside of NL-Only leagues, there he’ll be a decent late flier. As you said, good Ks, good park.

    @sean: He’s a waiver wire pick up. Unless your league is 18-20 team.

  21. Brian says:
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    Are any of the Pirates top three (Duke, Maholm, Ohlendorf) ownable? They don’t walk guys and it’s a crappy division.

  22. Vinnie says:
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    Hey guys….love the blog Grey. Protect Matt Holliday or Kinsler in a roto league? Already protecting Pujols and HanRam. We start 2 2B and 7 OF. Thanks in advance.

  23. airlifting says:
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    you are bat shit crazy if you’d take kevin correia before gavin floyd.

  24. Mikey boy324 says:
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    I read I pretty good article in the latest sports illustrated about ohlendorf it made me think he can be a usefull pitcher in 12 or more team leagues I dunno if he’s gonna be drafted though so he might be some1 to keep an eye on during spring training…

  25. Jeff says:
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    @Grey – I know. Just having some fun. Plus I’m a homer Giants fan.

  26. Tony says:
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    @airlifting: bat shizz crazy, i like it….

  27. Hebrew Hammer says:
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    perhaps i’m glad he didn’t make this list, but my sleeper pitcher this season is Felipe Paulino.

    I know everyone thinks he’s awful. His K/9 rate is fantastic, his walk rate is also terrific. He was hurt by bad luck in the BABIP and also in the strand rate. His home run rate was pretty poor but i feel like if he can cut that down will be money.

    Decent Park to pitch in which includes a great division for pitchers. He’s only 26, throws hard, and had excellent numbers in the swing and miss department in 09. Be very quiet.

  28. Tony says:
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    @grey, you have Juan Pierre in your top 40 OF’ers or like 40.5 or whatever… how much do you personally like him this year?

    With a full time gig you estimated him at 45 steals which i see as a lock and he should push 50 some…. no HR’s, no RBI’s, but solid average and doesn’t K….

  29. Mike says:
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    So is a third of the Benrich Shadard worth taking over players from the next couple tiers (ie Sheets over Wade Davis), or is “his” inclusion only to say some combo of the three will be excellent?

  30. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Brian: And their team is terrible. Eh, I wouldn’t own a Pirates pitcher coming out of a draft. More of a pickup in-season.

    @Vinnie: Thanks! Kinsler

    @Hebrew Hammer: Decent name in 15 team leagues or deeper.

    @Tony: He’s SAGNOF, steals if you need them.

    @Mike: I wouldn’t draft any of them unless they look great in the spring and they fall to me after the top 200 or so.

  31. sean says:
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    @Grey: still thinking about the pairings post after the starters are (now?) done? Team composition is an oft-overlooked part of drafting by plenty of ballers, myself included.

  32. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @sean: Yeah, it’s written. Just need a time to post.

  33. sean says:
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    ESPN ‘pert mock: Cockroft goes Braun, Doc Halladay, Jeter, Panda

    Any way I can get a spot in their cash league?

  34. DocNo says:
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    wanted to get your take on two rookie keepers:
    I have to decide to keep either Matusz or Pedro Alvarez for 2010-11 seasons. Who will give the most bang for the buck in their first two years? I’m leaning Matusz but ALEast is a beast, particularly for a rook.
    Alvarez might only see half of 2010 and might be Andy Marte in his first year. I only expect something real from him in 2011.
    So…Matusz or Alvarez?

  35. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @DocNo: I agree with what you’re saying. Matusz is better for the next two years, but Alvarez will be better after that. If you don’t need a starter this year, I’d just hold Alvarez.

  36. rafi says:
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    what are your thoughts on rzepczynski and hochevar as al-only sleepers for 2010?

  37. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @rafi: I like Rzepczynski… Good K rate, solid GB rate, but needs a rotation spot. Hochevar probably has a rotation spot, but I don’t like him going into the season. Too much risk right now.

  38. Keith says:
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    Just had a mock draft and I was predicted to finish last in the league.

    1-7: Cabrera, Miguel (1B)
    2-6: Holliday, Matt (OF)
    3-7: Rollins, Jimmy (SS) I think this was my worst pick
    4-6: Youkilis, Kevin (3B)
    5-7: Upton, B.J. (OF)
    6-6: Lester, Jon (SP)
    7-7: Wieters, Matt (C)
    8-6: Bruce, Jay (OF)
    9-7: Jiminez, Ubaldo (SP)
    10-6: Billingsley, Chad (SP)
    11-7: Borbon, Julio (OF)
    12-6: Valverde, Jose (RP)
    13-7: Davis, Chris
    14-6: Hart, Corey (OF)
    15-7: Lidstrom, Matt (RP) Assuming he’s closer by spring
    16-6: Weeks, Rickie (2B)
    17-7: Strasburg, Stephen (SP)
    18-6: Cabrera, Everth (SS)
    19-7: Snider, Travis (OF)
    20-6: Heyward, Jason (OF)
    21-7: Nunez, Leo (RP)

    So my team is
    C: Wieters
    1B: Cabrera, Davis
    2B: Weeks
    SS: Rollins, Cabrera
    3B: Youkilis
    OF: Holliday, Upton BJ, Burce, Borbon, Hart, Snider, Heyward
    SP: Lester, Jiminez, Billingsley, Strasburg
    RP: Valverde, Lidstrom, Nunez

    I know that my team is full of young guys that might break out or might implode like Wieters, Davis, Cabrera, Upton, Bruce, Borbon, Heyward, Billingsley and Strasburg but there is only 1 injury risk in Weeks and 1 guy over the hill in Rollins

  39. Keith says:
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    Just had a mock draft and I was predicted to finish last in the league.

    1-7: Cabrera, Miguel (1B)
    2-6: Holliday, Matt (OF)
    3-7: Rollins, Jimmy (SS) I think this was my worst pick
    4-6: Youkilis, Kevin (3B)
    5-7: Upton, B.J. (OF)
    6-6: Lester, Jon (SP)
    7-7: Wieters, Matt (C)
    8-6: Bruce, Jay (OF)
    9-7: Jiminez, Ubaldo (SP)
    10-6: Billingsley, Chad (SP)
    11-7: Borbon, Julio (OF)
    12-6: Valverde, Jose (RP)
    13-7: Davis, Chris
    14-6: Hart, Corey (OF)
    15-7: Lidstrom, Matt (RP) Assuming he’s closer by spring
    16-6: Weeks, Rickie (2B)
    17-7: Strasburg, Stephen (SP)
    18-6: Cabrera, Everth (SS)
    19-7: Snider, Travis (OF)
    20-6: Heyward, Jason (OF)
    21-7: Nunez, Leo (RP)

    So my team is
    C: Wieters
    1B: Cabrera, Davis
    2B: Weeks
    SS: Rollins, Cabrera
    3B: Youkilis
    OF: Holliday, Upton BJ, Burce, Borbon, Hart, Snider, Heyward
    SP: Lester, Jiminez, Billingsley, Strasburg
    RP: Valverde, Lidstrom, Nunez

    I know that my team is full of young guys that might break out or might implode like Wieters, Davis, Cabrera, Upton, Bruce, Borbon, Heyward, Billingsley and Strasburg but there is only 1 injury risk in Weeks and 1 guy over the hill in Rollins.

    What do you think?

  40. Keith says:
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    Sorry for the double post.

  41. IdahoMsfan says:
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    @grey You’re #61 post had me laughing so hard man. I’ve owned all three of those guys in the past two seasons. Gotta love the incentives based deal the M’s gave Bedard. Too bad I can’t come up with something like that for my fantasy team.

  42. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @IdahoMsfan: Ha, like the idea of an incentive for a fantasy team. Harden, you will help me win the envy of my 11 high school buddies who I don’t talk to that regularly anymore, c’mon!

  43. Richard says:
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    Grey, what about Jeff Niemann?

Comments are closed.