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I know most of you are champing/chomping at the bit for me to finish these facacta 2010 fantasy baseball rankings.  Well, the pitchers are right around the corner.  Some of these top 80 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball are long shots to make the club, but they might give you value if they do.  Or they might just give you value when they’re called up in the summer.  As Kanye West said, I’ll show you how I cook up summer in the win-turr.  As with the other rankings, where I see tiers start and stop are mentioned with my projections.  Anyway, here’s the top 80 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball:

61. Krispie Young – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here until Francoeur.  I call this tier, “The few veteran outfielders I’d take a flier on late, and even these guys leave a lot to be desired.”  If Krispie hits a third of his infield pop-ups for homers next year, he’ll hit 40.  And if I were 30 years old in 1760, I’d think Martha Washington was hot.  2010 Projections:  60/20/75/.245/15

62. Nick Swisher – Swisher reminds me of a just-post-roided Giambi.  25+ homers and a poor average.  What I sorta like about him?  I feel like he can hit 35 homers.  Hard to find that late.  2010 Projections:  80/30/90/.255

63. Delmon Young – The fact that he’s only 24 and he ended up in the veteran outfielders that are kind eh category is both the good and bad.  The good, his tools can still develop.  The bad, what’s taking so effin’ long?  2010 Projections:  55/17/75/.290/7

64. Lastings Milledge – Three short years ago Mets fans were debating if the organization should unretire number 41 in case Milledge wanted to wear it.  Now, the Pirates are debating between Milledge and Brandon Moss in the outfield.  Milledge will only be 25 in 2010 so you shouldn’t write him off… Just don’t write him in with ink.  2010 Projections:  60/12/70/.265/12

65. Jeff Francoeur – It’s only fair that you know that I placed Frenchy in the below tier of guys I don’t want at all then moved him up to this tier… Then down… Then up.  Just don’t want you to feel flimflammed on my Frenchy flip-floppery.  (<–Alliteration in lieu of wit.)  2010 Projections:  75/20/85/.275/5

66. Juan Rivera – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Willingham.  I call this tier, “Guys that you draft that you shouldn’t.”  What I mean with this tier, you’re better off just taking a flier on upside.  Willingham, Ross, Rivera, et al are guys that are always on waivers.  Maybe not them per se, but guys that do exactly the same thing.  If you don’t get Willingham in a draft, so what?  You can get ten other guys off of waivers that do the same thing.  2010 Projections:  65/24/75/.280

67. Cody Ross – Something about a player with two first names that always translates to boring.  If you’re able to draft Ross and hold him for longer than a week of the season, you have more patience than me.  His 25 homers and 5 steals and .270 average look okay on draft day, but there’s always someone who breaks out the first week of the season and Ross is the first one to go.  2010 Projections:  65/22/75/.265/5

68. David DeJesus – Someone save us from this tier.  2010 Projections:  80/12/60/.280/7

69. Jermaine Dye – Just when you thought this tier couldn’t get yawnstipating-er.  2010 Projections:  70/22/85/.260

70. Josh Willingham –  The best thing I can say about Willingham is that he’s the last name in this tier.  2010 Projections:  60/24/70/.255/3

71. Cameron Maybin – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the end.  I call this tier, “These guys may not even have a starting job.  So?”  When you’re this deep into a position, you’re better off taking a flier on upside.  I’ll give you an example to explain my point.  Jason Heyward starts the season hot.  Hits 5 homers and steals 4 bases in April.  You can trade him for someone that far exceeds his value.  Juan Rivera starts the season hot.  He hits 7 homers in April.  You know who you can trade him to?  His Moms.  That’s about it.  Do I want an outfield of Heyward, Maybin and Stanton?  Maybe in 2012.  No way for this year.  re: Maybin; If you’ve been reading the site for longer than a minute — not an Urban Dictionary minute which is actually a long time — you’ll know I was crushing hard on Maybin last year.  Nothing’s changed except his shoulder’s healed and he’s a year more seasoned like that beef stew in the back of your fridge.  I’m everywhere!  2010 Projections:  85/14/50/.285/20

72. Jake Fox – His projections are over at the top 20 3rd basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball.

73. Jason Heyward – Went over my Jason Heyward fantasy there.  2010 Projections:  65/12/70/.290/20

74. Desmond Jennings – Went over Desmond Jennings fantasy there.  2010 Projections:  75/7/45/.285/25

75. Austin Jackson – Jackson is supposedly going to be the starting center fielder for the Tigers.  He’s shown a lot more speed than power in the minor leagues and that shouldn’t disappear in the majors.  His .300 average in Triple-A looks like an aberration.  He’s liable to get exploited on breaking stuff.  A .250-.260 average wouldn’t surprise me.  Watching Leyland run Clete Thomas and Raburn out there in 2009 without much to show for it makes methinks Jackson will not only be the starting center fielder but he’ll probably lead off.  2010 Projections:  85/5/50/.275/22

76. Michael Taylor – Went over my Michael Taylor fantasy already.  2010 Projections:  85/12/60/.280/15

77. Kyle Blanks – Blanks, the love child of Fabulous Moolah and Kamala, the Ugandan Giant, naturally has some power in his ginourmous frame.  He should get to 25 homers easily and the average probably won’t be as bad as you might think for an all-or-nothing-type.  2010 Projections:  60/30/85/.270/3

78. Matt LaPorta – I’m real worried about the hip surgery he had in October.  He’s much younger than most guys who have this surgery — by about 50 years — but still any time you go messing with a guy’s hip I think there has to be some residual soreness or so I saw on House.  Have to watch in Spring Training to see how he’s coping.  2010 Projections:  65/17/80/.275

79. Gerardo Parra – For Parra to get near 25 steals, he’d probably get thrown out 30 times.  Cust kayin’.  2010 Projections:  75/10/60/.295/10

80. Ryan Raburn – With Fowler and CarGo, the Rockies are the fantasy sleeper outfield of 2010.  With Austin Jackson and Raburn, the Tigers want that title.  In 2006 and 2007, Raburn put up numbers in Triple-A (averaged 18 homers and 14 steals) that put him on the map.  Then, in 261 ABs last year, he had 16 homers and 5 steals.  Even though Ryan Raburn sounds like someone that should be dating Angela Lansbury, he has some upside and Leyland seems committed to giving him a chance. 2010 Projections: 65/22/75/.265/10 <–  crazy optimistic, but whatever.

After the top 80 outfielders for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s really not that many guys, but here’s two to look at:

Michael Saunders – Probably won’t play unless Bradley’s hurt… Oh, wait a minute, Bradley’s always hurt.  Saunders looks like a poor man’s FraGu.  Slight power, Slight speed.  Best case scenario, 15/15.  One thought, if Saunders was a solid prospect, why wasn’t he traded to the Orioles?  2010 Projections:  55/12/65/.275/15

Seth Smith – Man, I got it bad for the Rockies outfield this year (except Hawpe. Hmm… Guess that means I only like 2 out of 3.  Nevertheless!).  If Smith can somehow corral 450 ABs, he could get to 20+ homers and 10+ steals.  It’s a longshot that is predicated on playing time. Predicated-schedicated…  Get rid of Hawpe!  2010 Projections:  60/15/75/.290/10 with plenty of upside from there, but he needs a starting job.

From Around The Web

  1. dean says:
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    @Grey: I love your rankings so dont get me wrong but I just realized that I dont understand them. Are you ranking how you predict these guys will finish the year, how you predict they will be drafted, or are you hedging your bets a little and using the ranking as a conservative prediction and the commentary to say what you really think?

    I’ve heard you refer to your 09 love for Reynolds on numerous occasions but you ranked him 14th behind Aubrey Huff and Russel Martin. Your projections for Mini-Donkey were glowing, and might have placed him higher, yet you seemed to like him less than Edwin Encarnacion, Garret Atkins, and Jorge Cantu if we are to go by your ranking.

    How should I interpret the 2010 fantasy baseball rankings? Are these your sense of how players are currently valued by the market?

    Anyway, not trying to bust your balls. I know youre not a fortune teller. I appreciate all the work you put into this. My favorite read on the subject.

  2. Steve says:
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    Ah, nothing like a rankings post to ease the pain (slightly) of coming home from vacay.
    A couple for you. Do you like Swish more as a 5th OF or as a corner infidel (assuming eligibility)?
    And (not totally related to the post) this time last year, Dye was the guy (poetry!) who you picked to shore up a risky outfield. Who is that guy this year? Ibanez? Kubel? Names on the back of an envelope, please.

  3. Quintero says:
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    @dean: The art of drafting is getting the players who can, and will out-producing their ADP. Grey’s ranking is basically telling how the ADP will be in his mind, then he tells you where value are going to be. Instead of drafting Chris Davis in 6th last year, we been able to run away with Mini-Donkey in late round. It’s not about reaching, it’s about maxing out every draft pick.

  4. Real Tom says:
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    Well done. So Blanks and Swisher are my late round 25-30 homer guys? I like it.

  5. Eddy says:
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    Blah, Blanks is the only guy I like here (and now I like him a bit more with these projections) but I’m almost positive he’ll go undrafted in my main league so I’ll just have to keep an eye on him in the first month.

  6. pwire says:
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    Loved the wrestling reference. Old School wrestling names are like a fine wine… Thanks for the throwback to Kamala and the Fabulous Moo-La! Still loving the Q-Bert line…

    Also, thanks for the write ups on the three rookies most have not heard of. Porcello was the guy you pointed out last year who I turned to gold after his good start.

    Keep em’ firing!

  7. BadNewsBears says:
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    Based upon your analysis and projection for Blanks, should he rank considerably higher than the Ross and Willingham types? And above the unproven hot name fliers you listed? Blanks has some of the upside of the fliers, and some of the predictable power of the boring vets. At least bump him to the top of this section of the list, no?

  8. big o says:
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    @ Grey :
    how many AB’s do you project for Blanks this year ?

  9. PJtres says:
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    @grey.

    i can only keep two of these guys as “minors”
    who do you like? im leaning drabek/latos…but wanted to hear your thoughts.

    drabek/latos/blanks/

  10. Tarasco'sSecretStash says:
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    @ Grey: Do your earlier projections hold for Taylor’s value in Oakland? I had him at the top of my watch list after the Halladay trade because of all the vacancy in Toronto’s OF, but Beane seemed to indicate strongly he was in no hurry with Taylor after they acquired him. Thanks, yo.

  11. brett says:
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    @PJtres: Ah, I had completely forgotten about Latos. There’s a Hodgepadre I wouldn’t mind owning. Thanks!

    As for the list:
    I like Swisher, Heyward intrigues me, and i’m jumping all over Jennings as soon as the Rays hint at his call-up. If nothing else, there’s a lot of watch list fodder on here.

  12. Quintero says:
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    Master Grey, I got owned in MDC just now…someone draft Brett Anderson in 20th round on me! (and I panic and drafted Oswalt in 12th…kill me…) Batting looks fine tho, thanks to you!

  13. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @dean: It’s how they should be drafted when all things considered, risk, playing time, upside/downside and, most importantly, how you build your team. I can’t build your team in a draft. If you’ve drafted, say, Justin Upton, Bruce, Fowler and Dukes, then you better draft from the boring tier of Juan Rivera. I would not build my team like that, but doesn’t mean I should leave off every name I probably won’t own. If I did that, I would only draft about 30 outfielders in total, but if I listed, say, Maybin in my top thirty and left off 40 other outfielders it would be real confusing. I say I won’t draft Josh Willingham, but I think he will produce something. Just not something I would want at that point if I were building my team.

    @Steve: Ibanez is good for that. Swisher would work for that too. But he’d be better at the corner.

    @Real Tom: Yup

    @pwire: Cool, no problem.

    @BadNewsBears: He has more risk because of youth and playing time.

    @big o: That’s with 500 ABs.

    @PJtres: Hmm… That’s not easy. I’d go Latos and Blanks.

    @Tarasco’sSecretStash: They hold if he breaks camp with the A’s, it’ll be a spring training decision.

    @brett: In 12 team leagues, that’s all most of these guys are.

    @Quintero: Shake it off, man. No one owns you. You’re Quintero.

  14. Mikey boy324 says:
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    Grey are we finally gonna get the long awaited pitcher rankings tommorow?

  15. Jo says:
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    @grey: i’ve found a lot of drafts where I have to choose between this group of pitchers: Lester, Wainwright, C Lee, Dan Haren, Verlander… I usually take haren or lee because they seem like the safest picks. Would you rank these guys in order for me?

  16. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Mikey boy324: DHs tomorrow.

    @Jo: I will when the starter rankings come out on Thursday.

  17. Jo says:
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    @Grey: ah, just kill me now

  18. Jo says:
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    I just got votto, utley, and wright in a 10 team mock… im gonna call this the dream team and shoot for these guys in every draft

  19. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Jo: Yeah, that would be solid.

  20. peter says:
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    @Grey: Not pitchers? DoH!

  21. peter says:
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    Do any of you play in keeper leagues that tie a player’s value to a pick in the draft? (e.g., you took Votto in round 10 in 2009, so you can keep him in exchange for your 2010 10th round pick, etc.) If so, how do you value keepers from year-to-year who haven’t been drafted? (e.g., how would you appreciate Votto’s value in 2011 if he’s kept this year?)

  22. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @peter: First off, anyone can appreciate Votto’s value. It’s like Salieri in Amadeus.

    Guys that were waiver wire adds last year are kept in the last round, 2nd guy kept from the waiver wire is kept in the 2nd to last round and so on.

  23. Neil says:
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    What about Brett Gardner (Yankees)? He will hit 9th, but with full-time at bats (and pinch running duties when he doesn’t play), 35 steals is his floor (he stole 26 in 2009 in only 248 at bats). His BB% and K% improved a ton from 2008 to 2009 and he has great contact numbers (89% overall, 93% in the zone). I think he will hit .275 with 40+ steals and 75 runs. He has no power, but hitting 9th he could get 45 RBI in that stacked OBP lineup.

    .275, 4 HR, 75 runs, 45 RBI, 42 steals – not terrible towards the end of the draft.

  24. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @peter: my league doesn’t do keepers this way, but i think most leagues maybe bump up a guys keeper cost 1-2 rounds per year if they go that route. i could be wrong though.

  25. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Neil: Yeah, there’s some names that didn’t make the 80. I did a sleeper post about Gardner last year and probably will again. I like him for SAGNOF.

  26. brad says:
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    @peter: in my league the value doesn’t appreciate at all. keep votto in the 10th for as many years as you want. (number of keepers is limited though, and we have sort of a tiered keeper approach – you must keep a player from rounds 2-5 for example.)

    undrafted guys are valued like grey said.

  27. Simply Fred

    Simply Fred says:
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    @Steve: Swisher tantalizing, especially with that 1B/CI eligibility. He gets you 20 R more and .015 AVG less than Blanks, so about a push on projections. However, Swish seems to be going at least 5 rounds before Blanks. Not sure if the eligibility returns 5 rounds of value–??

  28. peter says:
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    @Grey: @ThePoonTycoon: @brad: Thanks, all. I’m trying to strong-arm this change in a league… in the interest of increasing parity and because I want to.

  29. Steve says:
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    Sheets signs with Oakland. It was on Twitter so it must be true.

  30. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Thanks for the heads up!

  31. Steve says:
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    10 million for a year? Sheets will have trouble out-performing his agent.

  32. ThePoonTycoon says:
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    @Simply Fred: while perhaps true, we’ve seen swisher’s ceiling, at least we have some upside with blanks.

  33. Phil says:
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    quick keeper question… really deep 16 person league and i need 2 keepers from:

    LaPorta
    Maybin
    JJ Hardy
    Ben Sheets

    any thoughts?

  34. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Phil: Maybin and LaPorta…

  35. IowaCubs

    IowaCubs says:
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    X-Nady is now a Cub, so now we can expect me to draft him in my All-NL Central League. You’re welcome.

  36. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @IowaCubs: How many outfielders the Cubs playing this year?

  37. YouthofToday says:
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    No faith Conor Jackson will start 125 games? By ranking Parra over Conor I presume you think Parra wins out at LF at some point.

  38. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @YouthofToday: Guess depends if Conor’s beaten Valley Fever yet, but Conor gives decent average and little to no speed or power so he needs to show something before he’s a worthwhile gamble.

  39. Phil says:
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    hey grey.. what if i expanded it to 3 keepers out of this 6:

    Matt Laporta
    Francisco Liriano
    Austin Jackson
    JJ Hardy
    Ben Sheets
    Cameron Maybin

    My team is pretty balanced.. so im just trying to keep the best keepers for now and for the future… hitting/ pitching, nor position scarcity means too much to me…to keep the 3 hitters of austin jackson, laporta, maybin i could do, even if i would have to trade later

    I was thinking of going laporta, maybin, sheets…. i think sheets could put up some decent numbers in oakland… but then again theres liriano…and sheets is really tough to trust… so im kinda conflicted… regarding austin jackson.. i have a feeling i may be able to redraft him

  40. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Phil: Liriano, Jackson and Maybin. If you’re feeling Sheets, go with him. I wouldn’t.

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