Comments on: Top 60 Starters for 2009 Fantasy Baseball

By: Grey

Grey — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 20:29:25 +0000

@Mike: He's not a #2, he's a borderline #4, so at the place where he's drafted, he's not that risky. I do agree with you, he's peripheral numbers show a regression might be forthcoming.

By: Mike

Mike — Tue, 10 Mar 2009 20:19:24 +0000

Grey, question about Guthrie. Do you feel he has some innate ability to keep his BABIP lower than other pitchers? Like Neo in the Matrix, does he not believe in this fate crap and that he has control over his own luck? I only ask because his BABIP the last two years has been .277 & .267 and his FIP has been 4.41 & 4.53, yet he has posted ERAs of 3.70 & 3.63.

Shouldn’t he really be in line for some type of regression? I hope not because I picked him up.

By: Grey

Grey — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 17:47:11 +0000

@Andrew: He’s on the top 40 starters list:

(http://razzball.com/top-40-starters-for-2009-fantasy-baseball/)

By: Andrew

Andrew — Wed, 04 Mar 2009 17:39:11 +0000

How come you have John Danks projected at “176. John Danks – 2009 Projections: 14-10/3.90/1.28/160″ on your top 300 list (above Lilly, Myers, and Lowe) but you dont have him anywhere in the top 80 starters? It seems like everyone thinks he fell off the face of the earth, or did you just forget?
Whats the deal Grey!?

By: PWNightmare

PWNightmare — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 05:50:11 +0000

Jan Lingön Strudel…

By: Grey

Grey — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 02:30:47 +0000

@Joe: There's a few things going on with the rankings. First, there's tiers. So Dempster is in a tier of pitchers that I don't want. Then Lowe is in a tier of guys I do want. So you could take that whole first tier and chop it off if you like and you trust me. Second, if I ranked them for how I would draft them, Mauer would be at 140th on the list and you'd think I was crackers. Or Dempster wouldn't even be on the list and then you'd have people asking where's Dempster? So I need to explain each player and rank them. So my shorthand is tiering bad pitchers together and then explaining why you don't want them. I could start this list with Lowe and leave off all of those first guys but then no one will have any idea why I'm leaving them off. So you take my rankings and you watch as someone drafts Dempster and you chuckle to yourself, then you draft Lowe or Maine or Kuroda, etc. Sorry, if this is confusing, but it's the easiest method for me.

By: Joe

Joe — Wed, 11 Feb 2009 01:38:09 +0000

Okay, but what I don’t understand is why you don’t just rank the guys you see as having better years AHEAD of those you don’t. For example, you have Ryan Dempster at #45 and Derek Lowe at #46. But your projection for Dempster is pretty bad: “9-7/4.50/1.35/120 and starts missed”. For Lowe, your projection is pretty good: “14-10/3.60/1.22/140″.

So why rank Dempster ahead of Lowe? Why not just rank ‘em as you see ‘em?

By: Grey

Grey — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 19:36:06 +0000

@Joe: I like them as late round fliers and they will get their own posts in the sleeper sections. Also, I like everyone from 46 to 54 with certain restrictions. Then I sorta like others on this list... Notice where I say in Greinke's, "It’s not that I won’t draft one, I just want to preach caution." Also, I listed the projections I see for people. So if you can handle Ollie Perez's inability to throw a strike some time, then you can grab him for the Ks. I did give him 190 Ks. That's a lot. I just said, I wouldn't own him. I'd find Ks elsewhere.

By: Joe

Joe — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 19:21:03 +0000

Geez. How in the hell do you assemble a 6 to 7 pitcher starting staff (assuming the usual 9 pitcher roster spots) in a 12 team league when you’re basically down on EVERY pitcher? There has to be SOMEBODY you like from 41 to 60!

If you like Parra and Johnson, why not move them up above Top 80? Certainly they should be ahead of schleps like Bonderman and Guthrie?

By: Grey

Grey — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 18:51:51 +0000

@Moonlight’s Grahams: I'm only concerned if one of them gets hurt during a game or looks especially bad, like Rich Hill last year in the spring.

By: Moonlight's Grahams

Moonlight's Grahams — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 18:25:01 +0000

Are you concerned or excited about pitchers throwing the the World Baseball classic? Namely guys like Verlander who complained of dead arm last year. Are the extra games going to get them in shape or will the real pressure situations take their tolls down the road?

By: Grey

Grey — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 17:42:07 +0000

@sean: Johnson is on the Top 40 starter post.

By: sean

sean — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 17:34:37 +0000

’09 Sleeper: Josh Johnson? 6’7, 240

’08 following Tommy John:

14 GS, 87.3 IP, 7-1, 77K/27BB, 3.61/1.351

By: cockyphoenix

cockyphoenix — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 16:24:19 +0000

good point. to the suspiciously intrigued section of the watch list he goes

By: Grey

Grey — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 16:21:13 +0000

@cockyphoenix: Oh, and no I wouldn't expect him to be of Kuroda's value.

By: Grey

Grey — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 16:19:25 +0000

@cockyphoenix: Kawakami is only interesting because he's in the NL. I wouldn't touch a new Japanese import in the AL East at all.

By: cockyphoenix

cockyphoenix — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 15:54:43 +0000

So he was. So he was.

Well, since you already covered the name I wanted to hear about, I’ll come up with another. Has anyone heard about this Uehara chap Baltimore is starting 2nd? Any chance he’s around a Kuroda value?

By: Grey

Grey — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 15:49:05 +0000

@cockyphoenix: Slowey was mentioned in the Top 40 post. See link in DBID’s reply.

@Dusty-Baker-In-Diguise: He’s in the Top 40 starters post — (http://razzball.com/top-40-starters-for-2009-fantasy-baseball/)

By: Dusty-Baker-In-Diguise

Dusty-Baker-In-Diguise — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 15:40:35 +0000

What do you think of Cueto this year?

By: cockyphoenix

cockyphoenix — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 15:37:16 +0000

so are you a whore (baker) or aren’t you (sonnanstine)? Also with names as shaky as Oliver Perez on the list, Slowey’s absence is more noticeable/conspicuous to me. A FIP of 3.9 with a BB/9 of 1.35 is worth a look at the #5 spot, even if he doesn’t strike out a lot of folk (about as many as my homey Guthrie).

By: Grey

Grey — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 15:25:33 +0000

@Terry Grant: Hehe @Fman99: There just wasn't room for everyone. I like Parra and Big Unit and they would probably be in the next tier where I start liking players again. Maybe I need to go to the top 80. @lincecumshot: Eh... Maybe. I went over Kawakami in the Lowe goes to the Braves post. I usually don't mess with Japanese pitchers their first year here. Too much risk, not enough upside. They always seem overrated.

By: lincecumshot

lincecumshot — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 14:29:22 +0000

Kenshin Kawakami! Kuroda, part deux. Or whatever “part two” is in Japanese.

Expect a 3.90 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, about 6-7 K/9. 10-12 wins. I’ll fill out the end of my staff with those numbers any old day.

By: Fman99

Fman99 — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 13:44:00 +0000

Thanks Grey, great list. My cheat sheet has been updated. You’ve got a few guys on the ass-end of this list that I would never pick (Kuroda, O-Perez, etc.) but I suppose that’s to be expected.

Curious as to what you think on a few specific names that didn’t come up — Manny Parra, the Big Unit, and Chris Volstad among others. Thanks oh moustachioed one.

By: Terry Grant

Terry Grant — Tue, 10 Feb 2009 08:20:14 +0000

So do you think it’s Edinson Volquez in the Bentley?

…(too soon?)