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In our seemingly interminable lists of 2009 fantasy baseball rankings, we’re covering the last of the top 40 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball.  ¡Muy excitemento!  The other day we did the top 20 starters for 2009.  Check them out, you know you wanna.  This list could go another sixty deep and maybe I’ll go through the next sixty without all the hazarai.  I talked about how I don’t draft many guys from the very top starters, instead I wait.  Well, the starters on this list are the ones I choose from.  I wouldn’t mind Vazquez, Cain and Wainwright on my fantasy team.  Or Garza, Weaver and Young.  Or… Well, you get the picture.  I like just about all of the guys on the bottom of this top 40 list.  For a more general idea of where people are falling, look at this 2009 Fantasy Baseball Player Rater.  Also, to help with drafting, here’s a list of players with multiple position eligibility.  Or read how previous year’s pitch counts make for risky pitchers.  Anyway, here’s the rest of the top 40 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball:

21. Felix Hernandez – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here to Joba.  I like to call this tier, “Guys I’m Kinda Gay For.”  If I could have a 12-team staff of F-Her, Liriano and Wainwright in every league, I’d take it.  How’s dem apples?  Delicious!  You know what’s weird about Felix Hernandez?  He’s like twelve.  Still.  He has to be the oldest 22 year old ever.  If you told me he had grandkids, I wouldn’t blink an eye.  I still love him.  2009 Projections:  13-9/3.85/1.33/190

22. Francisco Liriano – Now’s the season to get on the Liriano train.  Next stop, Fantasy Worth.  As the case is with Frank Jobe surgery, it usually takes a year of pitching to get back up to speed.  The year’s up, snitches!  To paraphrase Fiddy, “Get Liriano or Die Tryin’.”  2009 Projections:  11-5/3.25/1.25/160

23. Adam Wainwright – It’s no shock to those who have read Razzball for longer than a millisecond — Ooh, so I, like, just found Razzball from doing a Google search and, like, hey, glad to be here. Thanks, random italicized voice. — that Wainwright is higher on my list than on some ‘perts’ lists.  I’ve been a fan of Wainwright even when he Wentwrong last year.  I should’ve known after the bullpen experiment in ’06 that he’d breakdown in ’08 in unforeseen ways.  Live and learn, dawg.  Live and… You finish it.  2009 Projections:  13-7/3.60/1.20/150

24. Joba Chamberlain – Member in 1987 when everyone wanted to lay on the hood of that Jaguar with Tawny Kitaen?  Joba’s Tawny Kitaen.  2009 Projections:  12-3/3.00/1.18/130 in 20 starts.

25. Ricky Nolasco – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to Bedard.  I call this tier, “Um, Reservations.”  This tier is a group of guys I’d draft but I’m not as excited about these guys within this list’s contexts.  If Joba’s Tawny Kitaen on Whitesnake’s car, Nolasco’s Tawny Kitaen beating up Chuck Finley.  That’s not quite the compliment that it sounds like.  2009 Projections:  11-8/4.00/1.15/160 in 25 starts.

26. A.J. Burnett – Before everyone has a conniption about how low I ranked Burnett, let’s look at a few things.  A) He had a healthy year in 2008, where he pitched over 200 innings and he came in only 24th on the top starters of 2008.  B) He’s never pitched 200 innings in back-to-back seasons.  C) There is no C.  Deal with it.  2009 Projections:  13-9/4.15/1.30/140 in 20 starts.

27. Jon Lester – His WHIP scares me.  His lack of Ks scares me even more.  He cut his walks in 2008, which is a solid sign.  I’m just not sure if 2008 was something concocted for Lester by Make-A-Wish or if he’s the real deal.  2009 Projections:  15-7/4.00/1.30/150

28. Ben Sheets – (UPDATE: With elbow surgery in Sheets’s immediate future, punt.) For a long time I’ve stated that if Sheets can stay healthy, he’ll win a Cy Young.  Frankly, I don’t think that’s true anymore.  His K/9 wasn’t that great over a full season last year and he left quite a few on base.  Then you throw in his injury history and he’s not really worth the headache.  2009 Projections:  10-4/3.50/1.17/140 in 20 starts

29. Chien-Ming Wang – All he does is win games!  No, seriously, that’s all he does.  In addition to the All-Star Break Home Run Derby, MLB should have a strikeout contest where a non-strikeout pitcher faces off against a strikeout hitter.  Like you wouldn’t watch Chien-Ming Wang face off against Mark Reynolds.  May the slightly more fit survive!  2009 Projections:  17-7/4.00/1.30/120

30. Aaron Harang – I blame Dusty.  Dusty ruins careers.  Ask Prior.  Ask Wood.  Ask Dusty Jr.  Go ahead, be the bat boy in the World Series and trip players. Harang was going along nicely with a mid-3 ERA until the relief appearance on May 25th when he blew away nine hitters in 4 innings.  You know what Harang did for a few months after that?  You know exactly if you owned him.  He shit your fantasy house for three months.  Then had an ERA of 3.07 in September.  Cust kayin’.  2009 Projections:  12-9/4.00/1.25/155

31. Erik Bedard – I do think he could jump into the top 10 if he stays healthy, but that “if” seems Milky Way Galaxy-sized.  2009 Projections:  9-6/3.35/1.15/140 in 20 starts

32. Matt Cain – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here to the end of this list.  I call this tier, “I’m targeting these guys, boi!”  This might sound crazy to you but Cain could out pitch Lincecum in 2009.  Or they both could meet somewhere in the middle.  A very solid, productive middle.  2009 Projections:  14-10/3.35/1.26/200

33. Yovani Gallardo – His injury shouldn’t stop him from being productive in 2009.  The only thing that makes me reluctant to rank him higher is all the time he missed in 2008.  2009 Projections:  12-6/3.50/1.25/150 in 170 IP.  If he can go more, the numbers get more delicious.

34. Javier Vazquez -  When Vazquez was traded to the Braves, I went over Vazquez for 2009.   The abridged version of that post is, “Besides having a last name that would be great for Scrabble, I like him.”  2009 Projections:  15-8/4.15/1.25/200

35. David Price – I like Price, too.  I do, boo.  I just think the Rays are going to play it smart and rest him here and there, bump him here and there, and sit him late in the season.  So he might only get about 140 innings.  He can be valuable, but I’d keep expectations in check.  2009 Projections:  10-4/3.50/1.10/120 in 20 starts.

36. Max Scherzer – I went over this shizz in a Scherzer keeper post-a-ma-thing-a-ma-jiggy-wit-it.  Fact or fiction, I’m going to take a flier on Jobacum in some leagues no matter what the Baby Backs say his role will be in the spring.  Fact!  2009 Projections:  9-3/3.25/1.20/100 in 15 starts

37. Jered WeaverRyan Dempster was originally ranked here, but I removed him for Weaver.  I imagine the only people who will have a serious problem with this will be Cubs fans and we all know they’re not at all vocal.  2009 Projections:  14-9/3.75/1.25/160

38. Matt Garza – What if I told you Garza could have an ERA below 3.50, would that be something you’d be interested in?  2009 Projections:  14-10/3.50/1.25/140

39.  Josh Johnson – Momma Grey once said, “When in doubt, go for a nice K rate.”  Johnson’s only this low because of the injury history.  2009 Projections:  13-6/3.75/1.32/140

40. Johnny Cueto – I ended the top 20 with Edinson/Edison/Julio Volquez and I’ll end this list with Cueto.  Cueto’s entire 2008 was to guile your dopey ass into forgetting about him in 2009.  Don’t fall for it.  He’s the mothereffin’ butterfly and he just flapped his wings in Indochina.  2009 Projections:  14-10/3.75/1.25/165 (<–optimistic, but whatevs)

After the top 40 starters for 2009 fantasy baseball, there’s lots of guys, but these four stand out:

Chris Young – After going so downbeat at the end of the top 20 starters post, I felt the need to end upbeat on this one.  So these four guys I’m all cheery on.  Young was covered already in a 2009 fantasy sleeper post.  2009 Projections:  11-7/3.50/1.22/160

Brandon Morrow – As long as he comes at a decent price.  Please don’t go after him too early.  He still could end up the closer of the M’s and let’s not forget it’s the M’s.  How many games do you think he’s going to win?  8?  9?  2009 Projections:  8-4/3.45/1.20/120 in 20 starts.

Kevin Slowey/John Danks – So many pitchers, so little room.  I almost listed Greinke/Myers here instead.  I imagine the only people who will have a serious problem with their absence will be crazy wife beaters.  2009 Slowey Projections:  14-10/3.90/1.17/130  2009 Danks Projections:  14-10/3.90/1.28/160

Ervin SantanaERVIN SANTANA INJURY UPDATE.  2009 Projections:  11-6/3.75/1.20/125 in 20 starts

  1. Steve says:
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    Another great piece, Grey.

    Maybe it’s a reflection of who I’ve been mocking with (I’m sure I would NEVER get away with it with a bunch of Razzballers), but on a number of occasions I’ve been able to build a staff pretty much taken from Grey’s top 40 – and the earliest I have taken a pitcher is the 5th round.

    Good things come to he who waits? It seems so.

    @Grey: Now a site question/request – could we have this link:

    http://razzball.com/2009-fantasy-baseball-rankings/

    somewhere in the left-hand nav as well as in the body of each post?

  2. PWNightmare says:
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    It’s nice being in L.A. now ’cause Razzball updates come at a decent hour. Thanks for the tips, boys. I predict that I will finally win my league this year and that the Tigers will defeat the MEts in the World Weries this year (a prediction I have been making every year since, maybe, 1990).

  3. PWNightmare says:
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    Make that “Series”, “World Series”.

  4. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    So much delicious. Kudos, Mr. Grey.

    Looking at this list, I wonder why anyone would bother with any pitcher in the top 20, when you could have a rotation of Gallardo, Joba, Garza and Go to Broadway to Watch Raul Esparza.

    The only person here I absolutely do not want is Burnett. DO NOT WANT. The combo platter of overpriced-Yankee plus tantalizing-talent = the shoals upon which many a fantasy staff shall find itself dashed this year.

    Also, I had Cain last year, expecting tasty sleeperdom, but he was more Cain than able. (Thank you!) Still, I’d draft him again. He’s monstrous.

    Rounds 9 through 15 are going to be like a visit to the All-You-Can-Draft-Sleeper-Pitcher Buffet. An extra helping of Slowey? Yes please!

  5. @Baron Von Vulturewins: You must be a New Yorker if you’re pulling out Raul Esparza jokes (there was a non-stop local commercial a couple months back about a Mamet play on Broadway with Jeremy Piven, the copywriter girl from Mad Men, and Raul Esparza. it was so bad that someone gave Piven mercury poisoning to put the commercial out of its misery)

    In re: to the pitcher strategy, you’ve got Memento memory. Gallardo, Joba, Wainwright…throw in Rich Hill, and McGowan…they were all sleeper targets in 2008. How’d that turn out? Lincecum delivered out of that tier but not sure anyone else did. The only plus this year is I’ve done research to avoid some of the more risky sleepers (e.g., Rich Hill, Wainwright, and McGowan all either had too big of a pitch spike vs. prevoius year and/or threw too many breaking pitches). My risky pitcher post should be up on Thursday….

  6. Jeff says:
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    Dude, sshhhhhhh on Cueto!
    Don’t start ther hype machine.
    He will be better than Volquez this year.
    Better stuff and younger.
    Write it down!

  7. IowaCubs

    IowaCubs says:
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    I’m less concerned with Dempster and moreso with the absence of Ted Theodore Lilly, esq. I think that you’re sadly correct about Dempster not repeating anything. But Ted?

    2008:
    K/9 – 8.09 (184 total)
    era – 4.09
    whip- 1.23
    17-9

    Ted’s averaged almost 16 wins over the last 3 seasons… In round 16, you can take Weaver, I’ll go with Lilly. Then, when you fly over Iowa next, you can dump your chemical toilet over my house.

  8. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @Rudy Gamble: If I had Memento memory, I would take a Polariod of you and write “Poops all over my drafting strategy” at the bottom.

    True, true — ’08 had plenty of busts. But I’d rather my pitching busts come in round 12 than round 4. (I save round 4 for hitting busts, like Rios.)

    Sure, drafting Hill would have hurt (I passed up Hill for… wait for it… Frenchy!). But when I think of the guy who took Bedard in the 4th, it reminds me of Sean Connery in The Untouchables hitting that guy in the stomach with the shotgun, then saying “How do you think he feels now? Better? Or worse?”

  9. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @IowaCubs: I agree on Lilly, by the way, and plan to draft him in ’09, unless the guy in my league with the LillyBoner(tm) reaches for him in Round 8…

    Seems like there’s some sort of glossary term to be derived from a combination of “reaching” and “reach around.” Reachingaround?

    I gave King Felix a reachingaround in Round 6.

    No? Anyone? Bueller?

  10. Freak says:
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    You’re trying to hard, you must not know who you are. It’s not natural, relax a little.

  11. sean says:
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    For anyone with injury questions about Liriano, take a look at his second-half splits from ’08:

    11 Starts: 65.2 IP, 60K, 6-1, 2.74, 1.19, 3.16 K/BB, .96 HR/9

    I’m not sure that the guy gets to 200 IP this year, but I’d want those numbers on any team of mine. It’s clear he’s on the right path to return to ’06 form. There’s a reason the Twinkies traded an aging Johan for Carlos Gomez and it wasn’t Carlos Gomez…

  12. Chris says:
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    How do you guys read Kershaw this year? Last year felt a little rushed, so I’m wondering if he needs to get the wheels moving in AAA for a month or two before joining the team for good.

  13. Tony says:
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    Bueller, bueller….

    I grabbed felix in the 9th last year and it still put a sour taste in my mouth, probably not as sour as Baron Von in the 6th but still.

    The 21-40 list is solid. Love it. I am going to copy paste this shizzy and put it in my “master draft book”. Does anyone else have one of these? I pretty much created a huge Eff’n binder full of notes, printouts, and stuff i collected from January on. That way anything i like/think is important i’m not bookmarking and trying to refind, its all right there…. BAAAAAAAAAAA BAMMMMMMMMM!

    I seriously need to do some bigger money leagues, i invest way toomuch time LOL

  14. Great list, Grey. I will use it and abuse it like a Billingsley sock.

  15. IowaCubs

    IowaCubs says:
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    @Tony: My wife has complained to me that I spend more time doing fantasy baseball than scrapbooking our children’s early years. This is true, and they’ll be better of because of it. I’m breeding another generation of dorks. Rudy Gamble IV will thank me one day.

  16. IowaCubs

    IowaCubs says:
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    @sean: I feel the same way about Liriano as I do about Rich Harden and Ben Sheets. I think in the forum the other day, Grey said something like this: one risky guy on your team is awesome, but better not count on more than that to carry your team. And that’s me, quoting me quoting Grey!

  17. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Put in the sidebar.

    @PWNightmare: Though they could win the World Weries, if they can coax Elmer Fudd into managing them.

    @Baron Von Vulturewins: Yeah, Burnett flew too close to the sun last year and now his shoals are on fire.

    @Jeff: Agreed, hopefully.

    @IowaCubs: Lilly was in this post, but he was removed when I read Rudy’s soon to be posted post about risky pitchers. Something scared me about Lilly — TBA! (He would be right outside of this 20 though.)

    @Baron Von Vulturewins: Rhetorical! Worse.

    @sean: Yup.

    @Chris: I like him just outside of this top 40.

    @Tony: That’s like Kevin Spacey from Seven. I love it!

    @Fman99: Nice!

  18. Tony says:
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    @Grey: @IowaCubs: LOL- I am only engaged but my fiance gets uber pissed about me on the comp all the time checking fantasy baseball and basketball.

    MY REPLY

    WOMAN ITS NOT GONNA END, SO GET USE TO IT!!!

    She’s marrying me and the WOODY PAIGE ALLSTARS (my team name)

  19. Jimmy ray says:
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    where is verlander? Max Scherzer?? he is top 40 based on what , he has a cool sounding name and throws hard? The kid as shown nothing. after about 28 your list goes down hill fast. you state the reason why wang is not a top 40 pitcher, all he does is win. if you want wang on your team wait til the last round and draft him, his name is joe saunders…..lol. no pinstripes but the same stats!! Yovani Gallardo should be closer to 20!!!

  20. Zack Greinke's Fan Club says:
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    Where’s the love? He’ll be 25….no known injury risk….180+ Ks…he beat the projections for all the guys on the back end of your list last year.

  21. Zack Greinke's Fan Club says:
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    No love for a 25 year old with 180+ Ks and upside and no known injury risk? Bad team for sure, but he still had 13 wins…

  22. @Baron Von Vulturewins: Ha…yeah, Rios got super-hyped last year. Not a bad year but just so-so. Bedard had flashing ‘watch out’ signs all over him…but Sabathia, Hamels, and Haren all went around then and did great….

  23. @IowaCubs: You realize Rudy Gamble IV will be my third-oldest son, right? I’m going George Foreman on the names…

  24. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Many thanks, oh king of the HTML.
    @IowaCubs: @Tony: There’s not much understanding of the need to constantly monitor fantasy baseball developments on the computer in my house either.

    Thank goodness for work I say.

  25. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Jimmy ray: I went over Verlander’s 200 innings of suck last year and tried to find a ray of hope for this year and could not. If you have an argument pro Verlander, feel free to share it because I will probably write a post just on him.

    @Zack Greinke’s Fan Club: As mentioned in the post, I almost listed Greinke but he has some problems for 2009. I don’t want to say more because then I’ll be stepping on Mr. Rudy Gamble’s toes.

  26. Jimmy ray says:
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    @Zack Greinke’s Fan club: holy shit! I assumed he was top 20!! it’s a flat out joke he is nowhere on this list. it must be a mistake.!

  27. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Jimmy ray: It’s no mistake. His omission was on purpose. Rudy’s post listing all of the risky pitchers will be up late tonight for tomorrow morning.

  28. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @Grey: I’m looking forward to the Verlander post because I for one am tempted to try and get him on the cheap.

    I’m also looking forward to Baseball Prospectus’s take on him, since last year they had him down for multiple Cy Youngs.

  29. sean says:
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    @Grey@jimmyray: Verlander is one pitcher where Grey really breaks his pattern of pumping up younger players with skills following a season of suck.

    Verlander admitted at TigerFest that his arm was still beat up in ’08 after being overused in his first full season in ’06. He couldn’t maintain a preseason throwing program and couldn’t long toss. He’s been able to keep up with both of those this offseason. He’s worked more on his flexibility and range of motion and less on pure upper-body strength. With more confidence in his arm strength and the return of velocity, I hope Verlander can return to attacking hitters and putting them away with his great breaking pitches…

    I’m looking to target this guy as my 3-4 starter; it’s where he’s drafting right and he could totally turn out to be an ace.

    @Jimmy ray: Who wants to know? Who wants to know?!? http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=skoPxPZmySs

  30. Jimmy ray says:
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    @ Grey: Verlander has worked out a flaw in his delivery with new Tigers pitching coach Rick Knapp. maybe he gain the couple of miles he lost from his fastball. Yeah thats right, a couple of miles. when people say he lost a lot off his fastball they are flat out wrong. instead of topping out 100 it was topping out at 97 with a avg of 94/ 95. his defense will also be much better behind him, no more renteria!! I dont know how verlander hurt you but I don’t get how a guys goes from being the one of the best to not being better than Max Scherzer!!!

    I’m sure the problem with greinke is the jump in innings. they baby that kid. he doesnt throw a lot of pitches

  31. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Baron Von Vulturewins: Verlander was probably the most costly addition to any fantasy staff last year. You swore he was going to turn a corner with every start and he just kept killing you.

    @sean: @Jimmy ray: I’ll look again at Verlander for some glimmer, but when I went over his numbers I remember thinking he’s a lock for 200 IP and a low 4 ERA with Ks moving the wrong way. That’s okay, but it’s not that thrilling.

  32. Eric W says:
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    Where do you see john maine this year looked to be primed for a break out last year but was held back by injury any chance we see that leap forward this season?

  33. IowaCubs

    IowaCubs says:
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    @Grey: @Rudy Gamble:

    You know who I think is a risky pitcher for 2009? RUDY GAMBLE!

    (how dare you step on our Greinke funk!?!)

  34. Jimmy ray says:
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    @sean: Verlander had a year like josh becket did his first year in boston. Your right it was frustrating watching him not overpower weak hitters.

  35. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eric W: I think he’s a good late round flier because of his team, but BBs moving up and Ks moving down is a bad trend.

    EDIT: Typo. Word.

  36. Tony says:
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    off topic, but do alot of you guys that post on here have a league together or is there one for people that post on here?

    i wouldn’t mind playing, let me know if ya need someone to fill a spot

  37. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Tony: There will be Razzball commenter leagues forming in a week or so.

  38. Tony says:
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    Nice, i’m down

  39. sean says:
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    Gentleman Joe Torre about to be live on WFAN at 4EST.
    They have a free stream available…

  40. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @sean: I missed it, how was it?

  41. sean says:
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    Predictably Torre. He denied purposefully attacking any players. He said that he didn’t have any control over what Verducci wrote (ahem yeah right), but that he’s read it now six times and that he wouldn’t change a word. Nice juicy bit about Mussina bashing Mo for not being to seal the deal in 2001.

    Classic Torre:
    Francesa: Joe, David Wells said you’re a punk and he’d punch your lights out if he saw you.
    Joe: I saw David last year and he told me he hated me, but I asked him to come to a dinner I was hosting for the kids honoring the 98 team and he came.

    I mean, the guy just doesn’t get it sometimes. To his credit, he calmly disarms what would enrage most people, but sometimes I wonder if it’s because he can’t see the forest… It’s already available at wfan.com

  42. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @sean: Cool, I’m gonna have to listen to it.

  43. GasTheObese says:
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    No feelings for Kershaw? Remember; it’s not gay if you beat them up afterwards.

  44. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GasTheObese: I like Kershaw, GTO. He’s just outside the top 40. I’m beginning to think I need to take the top 40 starters to the top 80.

  45. I’d be more than happy to get the top 41-60 starters (and outfielders!). But, you know, do your thing guy. I’ll just soak it all up.

  46. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Fman99: I’m sure a lot of people would enjoy it but I might need an intern to get all of this stuff done. I’d put a winking emoticon here if I were the type to use emoticons. But I’m not, I’m mustached.

  47. Simply Fred

    Fred Barker says:
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    Grey, the significant underestimate is playing time for Price. Maddon racked up 193.1 IP for Sonnenstine, 184.2 for Garza, and 183.1 for Jackson in 2008. So, he won’t hold back on Price. Jump your numbers to 15-6/3.50/1.10/180 for a more realistic projection.

  48. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Fred Barker: BP gives him 102 IP, CHONE gives him 80 IP, and he had threw about 140 IP last year between minors and majors. It’s safe to bump him 30 innings so that leaves him at 170 IP. But you don’t go into the season assuming 180 innings, you go in assuming 120, hope for 180 and allow for 140.

  49. Simply Fred

    Fred Barker says:
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    The difference maker is the manager. The Yanks will hold down Joba. AZ will hold down Scherzer. Maddon will run Price. I will go with 160 and take the over. Do you really want the under?

  50. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Fred Barker: If I have to draft the guy to be on my team and produce, I hope for the over and expect the under. If you feel confident Price is a 180 IP guy, then draft him more aggressively.

  51. Simply Fred

    Fred Barker says:
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    Grey, I appreciate your knowledge. Not trying to get under your skin. I think I may have your attention with the Maddon comment. Please read comment #12 regarding Peavy as a sleeper. You will like it better.

  52. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Fred Barker: Nah, I welcome debate. It’s more than an open forum here. I’m just simply stating that I refuse to get overhyped on a rookie, no matter who he is. I prefer Wainwright, Lowe and Danks. If Price is there, I’d gamble on him, but I’d only expect 140 innings. It’s just about being conservative. Because once you start saying Price can get 180 innings, then you start saying Furcal can hit 20 home runs and Verlander is due for a bounce back, etc. It’s a slippery slope.

  53. Simply Fred

    Fred Barker says:
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    I play in a points league. Wainwright costs 2370, Lowe 2570, Danks 2320. Chamberlain at 1730, Kershaw 1410, and Scherzer 1370 are the comparables. Understand what you are saying about being conservative. I am. Playing time matters to me. I am just saying that Maddon is a manager that has a track record of running his pitchers and that it is really not as much risk as normal to count on that from him regarding Price. (Read the Peavy review.)

  54. James says:
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    I am thinking that Harang bounces back very well. When he came back his stats were strong, and I expect no more relief appearances, which will lead to him being back to his beast like behavior. 30 on the list leads me to believe you don’t think he can be dominant again. Is this the case?

  55. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @James: Nope, 30 is pretty high when you consider each team has 5 starters. Also, I mention the 3.07 September ERA. I like Harang to a certain extent for 2009.

  56. Brian says:
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    You say Greinke was left off due to him being risky this year. Yet you list Cueto, Ervin, Nolasco, plus 2 guys who you think will make 15 and 20 starts. So um I’m curious … why?

  57. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Brian: Going from not pitching, to pitching relief to starting 32 games worries me the most.

  58. Brian says:
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    But Nolasco going from 55 IP to 212 IP, does’t bother you? I get what your saying, I just think you have a bit of a double standard going. Maybe your two worried about his mental make up which helps you justify not ranking him. Which if that’s it, you may have a point. But when you say you don’t list him for a reason when you list others higher for the same thing, it draws a question mark.

  59. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Brian: I put Nolasco down for 25 starts and I put him in the tier labeled, “Um, Reservations.” I’m worried about Nolasco too, but his K/BB rate was too tantalizing for me to leave off completely. Greinke would be near the top on the 41-60 starter and he’s not far off from Nolasco and as I said in the post above I almost listed him instead of Slowey.

  60. James says:
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    Any love for Verlander? I noticed last year it seemed Leyland kept him in games to long due to their terrible pen. With the addition of Lyon and hopefully a healthy Zumaya, I think he could rebound. Plus, I heard a report that Rick Knapp, a well respected pitching coach, has spotted a few flaws that he plans to iron out.

  61. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @James: Verlander just missed the cut, because besides anecdotal evidence from pitching coaches I haven’t heard any concrete reason why his stats are continuing a downward trend. He will be on the top of the starters 41-60.

  62. James says:
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    I made sure to keep Cueto on my radar as the season went on for next year; however, I didn’t like what I saw from him in the 2nd half. Can you give me some insight about why you like him this year?

  63. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @James: He was 14th amongst all major league starters for his K rate at 22 years-old. He throws a 95 MPH fastball with ease and he breezed through the minors, adjusting quickly and moving on. He had a problem with HRs last year, which was new for him. He had some overworking (Damn you, Dusty!) and some walks, which he’s shown he can fix. He’s risky, but he can be flat-out nasty.

  64. Lou Poulas

    Lou P says:
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    Hey Grey. Have you seen how high Pecota, Chone, Bill James, etc are on Javier Vazquez? They make him Top 5. Is this a case of crazy stat people on crack or do you think he can be this good.

  65. Lou Poulas

    Lou P says:
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    @Rudy & @Grey – wonderful, i just traded Santana for him. J/K of course. YES, finally, FBHOF will be back on track shortly. Tremendous kudos to you gents for having the drive, fortitude, and knowledge to make this site what it is.

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