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So, how’s everyone holding up without baseball every day?  I don’t know what to do with myself!  Yesterday, I wandered into a Starbucks and told the coffeerista about Carlos Gonzalez for 2011.  We’ve gone over the final 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters and the top 20 starters.  There’s only one of these godforsaken recap posts left before we’re into 2011 fantasy shizz.  You’re welcome.  Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:

21. Tim Lincecum – I told you he’d be ranked number one overall!  Only hadn’t anticipated the ’2′ in front of the ’1.’  As my Polish neighbor likes to say, “What can do?” Linecum was still putting the K in kd lang, but his WHIP was a flippin’ mess.  Freak out.  Preseason Rank #1, 2010 Projections:  18-5/2.70/1.00/250, Final Numbers:  16-10/3.43/1.27/231

22. Jonathan Sanchez – If you didn’t know I loved me some Filthy Sanchez going into 2010, you weren’t reading the site.  Preseason Rank #82, 2010 Projections:  14-7/3.75/1.38/200, Final Numbers:  13-9/3.07/1.23/205

23. Brett Myers – Member how I talked about foreseeing the top 20 starters pretty clearly?  Well, you don’t have to remember.  Take my word for it.  The top 40?  Not so much.  And if you think it was just me who didn’t see these starters performing as well as they did, think about how many of these guys were on your waivers at one time or another.  R.A. Dickey, for one, was owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues the entire year.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  14-8/3.14/1.24/180

24. Johan Santana – I thought I sorted wrong when I saw Johan ranked this high.  He didn’t seem like a top 25 pitcher to me last year.  His K-rate dropped below 7 for the first time in his career and his ERA shows that he was very lucky to only give up as many runs that he did.  Then to put a vomit-flavored cherry on the sundae, his season ended with shoulder surgery.  The days of “Should I draft Johan with my 2nd pick?” are long behind us.  Preseason Rank #6, 2010 Projections:  18-7/3.15/1.18/200, Final Numbers:  11-9/2.98/1.18/144

25. C.J. Wilson – Had one of the more improbable seasons… If you’ve forgotten what Dempster did going from an okay reliever to a starter.  Someone needs to start the ‘Pat Neshek For Starter’ campaign.  Wilson’s IP jumped from 70+ to 200+, he gave up more than 4 walks per 9 IP and he threw his home starts in Arlington.  Maybe he stole Scott Feldman’s mojo.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  15-8/3.35/1.25/170

26. Ted Lilly – He was out with the an injured shoulder the first month of the season so I got cold feet.  Well, someone should’ve told me to wear my footy pajamas!  *burp*  Excuse me.  So Lilly’s proven for 3 straight seasons he’s about as reliable as they come.  Not exciting.  Reliable.  Preseason Rank #77, 2010 Projections:  10-6/3.85/1.10/100, Final Numbers:  10-12/3.62/1.08/166

27. Shaun Marcum – Returned from Tommy John surgery and showed Chastity Bono how to make post-op look good.  Usually when TJ survivors return they’re shook ones with little control.  Marcum only threw 43 BBs vs. 165 Ks.  As they say in Spanish Harlem, that’s muy bueno, papi.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-8/3.64/1.15/165

28. Tommy Hanson – C.J. Wilson, Dickey, Myers, etc. etc. etc. were great last year, doesn’t mean I’m going to love them going forward.  Every year there’s 20 or so starters that overperform.  Last year Feldman, Buehrle, Happ showed up in the top 40.  Didn’t make me shove them up the rankings for the following year.  I bring this up now because Hanson is a guy that should take a step forward next year.  Preseason Rank #29, 2010 Projections:  14-6/3.75/1.20/175, Final Numbers:  10-11/3.33/1.17/173

29. Colby Lewis – The low din of hype that followed Lewis back from The Land of the Rising Sun was on point.  His Ks were there and his walks weren’t terrible.  On a team that won 90 games, his under .500 record is puzzling and makes me think he might not be too overrated next year, especially since no one watched the postseason.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  12-13/3.72/1.19/196

30. Bronson Arroyo – I was one of the biggest proponents of trading for Arroyo around the All-Star break when he starts getting in his groove, but let’s be honest.  He’s ranked this high because of his Wins.  He gets 13 Wins instead of 17 and he’s nowhere on this list.  Preseason Rank #72, 2010 Projections:  12-8/4.25/1.34/140, Final Numbers:  17-10/3.88/1.15/121

31. Hiroki Kuroda – This guy seems to be perennially underrated.  I might have to shove a sleeper post down… Actually, Kuroda’s just so boring I can’t write a sleeper post about him, can I?  Preseason Rank #70, 2010 Projections:  9-6/3.65/1.24/100, Final Numbers:  11-13/3.39/1.16/159

32. Francisco Liriano – I didn’t rank Liriano but I did give him his own sleeper post.  Sounds a bit like crazy talk from a man who wears a potato sack and sings religious songs in Latin, but 2009 wasn’t kind to Liriano and it wasn’t until he rediscovered his velocity in winter ball did he get back on the fantasy map.  The final numbers are actually a bit sadder than the reality.  He was in the Cy Young race until his final few starts.  Preseason Unranked, 2010 Projections:  12-9/4.05/1.34/155, Final Numbers:  14-10/3.62/1.26/201

33. John Danks – I’m going to admit to being completely perplexed by Floyd and Danks.  One year one does seemingly better and one does seemingly worse according to their ERAs and FIPs.  Next year, that reverses.  Then reverses again.  Now I know why Ozzie’s crazy.  Preseason Rank #64, 2010 Projections:  12-7/4.15/1.30/155, Final Numbers:  15-11/3.72/1.22/162

34. Gio Gonzalez – The 2.56 ERA in Alameda makes him look like a straight homeschooler.  I’m not sure I disagree either.  His BBs are ugly, but he did lower them nearly a full one per nine.  He left a bunch of men on, which helped hide how detrimental the walks could’ve been.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  15-9/3.23/1.31/171

35. Carl Pavano – Here’s another guy that probably won’t be draftable next year, but turned in a good season thanks to Wins.  If you think he had a good season outside of Wins, look at his 117 Ks in 221 IP.  That’s pretty unmanly.  And that hurts me to say because we are brothers in ‘stache.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  17-11/3.75/1.19/117

36. Max Scherzer – The train completely derailed in the month of May, where he posted a 9.45 ERA.  Then he was reborn in the holy Toledo water and returned to post a 2.47 ERA after the All-Star break.  It was a reminder that he was once referred to by the name Jobacum because of his similarity to Joba and Lincecum, and that was when that was a big compliment.  Preseason Rank #31, 2010 Projections:  12-8/4.00/1.32/165, Final Numbers:  12-11/3.50/1.25/184

37. R.A. Dickey – The valuable lesson to take away from this top 40 is — you could’ve drafted Beckett, Baker and Lackey as your first three starters and there’s still plenty of pitchers to grab to replace them.  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  11-9/2.84/1.19/104

38. Ryan Dempster – Wow, 208 Ks from Dempster.  Wow.  Due to getting batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone at a 32.2% rate, he recorded his highest K-rate of his career at the age of 33.  The way he’s going, by the time he’s forty he’s going to win a Cy Young.  Preseason Rank #27, 2010 Projections:  13-8/3.90/1.28/170, Final Numbers:  15-12/3.85/1.32/208

39. Dan Haren – Overall, disappointing year for a top 10 pitcher going into the preseason, but it could’ve been much worse.  A notorious 1st half pitcher coupled with the switch of leagues sounds like a guy that got pulverized in the 2nd half.  Yeah, didn’t work out that way.  1st half ERA was 4.36.  2nd half was 3.34.  Preseason Rank #8, 2010 Projections:  16-10/3.30/1.15/200, Final Numbers:  12-12/3.91/1.27/216

40. Jaime Garcia – He went slightly over the amount of innings he should’ve thrown.  Like, oh, 125 2/3 IP too many.  I doubt La Russa would abuse a squirrel’s arm that egregiously.  Without knowing any advanced metrics or having a big brain like Brad, it’s pretty obvious from Garcia’s WHIP that he left a shizzload* of runners on base.  (*A shizzload is smaller than a crapton, but still larger than a shizzton.)  Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers:  13-8/2.70/1.32/132

62 Responses

  1. vinko says:
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    And that hurts me to say because we are brothers in ‘stache – Classic!

  2. Bill Lumbergh says:
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    Love the Pulp Fiction quote at the end. Keep ‘em coming Grey!

  3. Marlo Stanfield says:
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    Strategy question…

    I’m a firm believer that wins are a category that can’t be planned for. Going into this year my top 4 starters were Felix, Lester, Verlander, Weaver, none of which save Lester really did much in the win category yet I was able to finish in the top 2 in my league in wins which I attribute mainly to Phil Hughes.

    My question is whether or not starting pitchers on the Yankees should have more fantasy value when compared with other starters because they are seemingly more likely to rack up wins (CC, Hughes, even Pettitte had 11 in 21 starts), a category which is difficult to control.

    Part 2: How much would The Adverb’s ranking change if he signed with the Yanks this offseason?

  4. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @vinko: Thanks!

    @Bill Lumbergh: Thanks!

    @Marlo Stanfield: 1st question — They do have more value for just that reason. Their division and stadium, unfortunately, detract from that value. 2nd question — He’s a top 10 starter wherever he goes, give or take a few slots each way.

  5. Tony says:
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    @Marlo Stanfield: 18 wins from verlander didn’t do much for the win category? You are right you just draft pitching late, hope for the best on wins, and then go from there…

  6. Marlo Stanfield says:
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    @Tony: I traded Verlander at the deadline for Johan and Pagan in an attempt to bump up my batting average a few notches.

    Definitely agree. Each year, and this one especially, there seems to be a much greater abundance of capable starting pitchers than capable hitters. Plus hitters seem to be more consistent with the full season numbers they put up than pitchers do.

  7. Earl Battey says:
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    Ugh. I was counting along. Thirty-six, thirty-seven, thirty-eight. . .

    I guess I would have to get to thirty-nineteen or so before we would have found Gallardo’s “top 40″ entry.

    Is he really a 2011 keeper? I like the 5 IP, 0 ER, 12 K starts (with 122 pitches), but don’t like the 2 IP, 6 ER, 6 BB outings so much. I can have him for 9 bucks for each of the next two years, so I should have money left over for my ulcer medication if I keep him (I can also have him for 7 bucks for a year). If he takes a step forward, that could be a nice value. Or, I could throw him back knowing I can probably find someone on the wire who will offer a little more consistency. What do you think?

    Thanks.

  8. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Earl Battey: This isn’t a ranking for 2011, this is for last year. At $7, he’s a keeper.

  9. Rabbit says:
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    By the way, for a long time I (like you) thought it was “Check out the big brain on Brad!” but it turns out that it’s “Check out the big brain on _Brett_”. http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0110912/quotes I think Brad works better than Brett, however, so I suggest everyone continue to intentionally mis-quote the line for aesthetic effect.

  10. Earl Battey says:
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    If it matters, my other pitching keeper options include Ubaldo ($16 per year for 3 years), Liriano ($7 with an option to resign him for up to 3 years after 2011), Chapman (same as Liriano), RSoriano ($5 for a year). We keep 8 total. Looking at my hitter options, it’s likely that I’ll keep 3 or 4 pitchers.

  11. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Rabbit: Agreed, I like it misquoted better.

    @Earl Battey: Doesn’t change my opinion.

  12. Earl Battey says:
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    @Grey: I know that these aren’t your projections or rankings for 2011.

    I guess I was just venting a little because I had high hopes that Gallardo would break through in 2010. He had that little oblique strain around the all-star break and was inconsistent from that point on. I hope he puts it all together next year.

    As always, thanks for the input.

  13. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Earl Battey: Gotcha… At $7, he’s too much of a K beast to give up.

  14. Simply Fred

    simply fred says:
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    @Marlo Stanfield: I tallied stats for hitters (min 100 AB) and compared 2008 to 2010:

    Runs, -6%
    Home Runs, -6%
    RBI, -6%
    AVG, .263 to .257
    Stolen Bases, +6%
    Strikeouts, +4%

  15. The Dude says:
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    @Grey: In the spirit of your conversation earlier this week regarding content for the site…

    How about a new series of posts called “2010 Busts” – or something more witty – though you could do a lot with “Bust”? I mean, there are plenty out there to choose from and I’m sure you’d give us a great perspective on how a busted 2010 season will translate into 2011 value.

  16. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @The Dude: Don’t think I follow. Wouldn’t your suggestion fall under a sleeper or just general post about a guy who was bad last year and could turn around?

  17. Stephen says:
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    @Grey: In regards to Jaime Garcia’s innings pitched, he was coming off TJ surgery. He was more like 40 innings over the limit and not 125 IP

  18. Back to Minors says:
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    It’s Movember baby!

  19. The Dude says:
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    @Grey: Yeah, there’s some sleeper overlap, but I was thinking of bigger name players, guys who aren’t really sleepers like Tiex or Fielder or Kemp who had busted seasons and who may or may not bounce back. Sort of an outlook on what to expect from that type of player and how a bad season will effect their value. None of those 3 could be considered sleepers really and there were plenty of others this season to choose from.

    Or maybe some you could take it another direction, like: “Busted – I told you so” type of thing. Here’s where you highlight your 2010 preseason warnings that ended up coming to fruition, like Mark Reynolds or Ben Zobrist. That line of thought doesn’t seem as valuable, but I’d read it.

  20. Back to Minors says:
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    so what do you think of Grady Sizemore in 2011? meh, eh, booya!?

  21. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @The Dude: Guys like Kemp, Te(i)x and Fielder will be covered in the actual rankings. They’re all bounce back candidates.

    @Back to Minors: Booyah if healthy.

  22. Back to Minors says:
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    curious to see where he gets drafted.

  23. Back to Minors says:
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    could be a real bargain

  24. Black Beard says:
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    Grey, do you think deep pitching is something a fantasy baseballer can count on in 2011? Thinking about going hitter heavy next year early on and then grabbing the breakout pitchers off waivers.

  25. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Black Beard: I suggest you go hitter heavy every year.

  26. Black Beard says:
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    @Grey: Gotcha. I filled my bench with pitching last year and it didn’t work out as well as I would have liked.

  27. Steve says:
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    Come now, Grey. There are many ways for an imaginative fellow to keep himself occupied in the offseason. He just needs to make sure he doesn’t burn through them all in the first few days…

  28. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Black Beard: Would’ve been worse with hitters on your bench.

    @Steve: What are you referring to? So I have a time to email her again next week to then make plans after that. This shizz is such nonsense. I think I emailed her too many times too and too close back to back.

  29. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Yeah, once every couple of hours is probably a bit much.

    You have ‘a time’ to email her? Like an appointment? You kids and your 21st century courting rituals.

    Why don’t I just pass her a note for you and be done with it?

  30. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Supposed to email her on Monday to make plans for next week. It’s a bit cockeyed. I made fun of her email address too. So far I’m thinking this one ain’t gonna work out.

  31. Steve says:
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    @Grey: You card, you!

    You should probably be on standby to obliterate the last couple of posts (or the comments at least) too…

  32. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Eh, at this point, whatever. Who wants to wait over a week to meet? That’s ridiculous. (Watch, she’s probably out of town this week and I’m doing silly.)

  33. Steve says:
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    @Grey: That is kind of strange – if you’re out of town, just say so.

    Heh. I’m starting to sound like an expert in skirt-chasing. As if!

  34. big o says:
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    @Grey:

    i’m obviously late to the party (and i prefer it that way) , but ,
    as a general rule ,
    it’s probably best NOT to appear to desperate/clingy/obsessive
    or stalker-ish .

    she might think that you’re stuck on some island
    in the middle of the tasman sea .
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aIrhVo1WA78

  35. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Hehe… You should start your own ‘pert skirt-chasing blog.

    @big o: Nah, I’m under control and I know the deal (or at least think I do). I’m just think waiting over a week to even make plans feels silly.

  36. big o says:
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    @Grey:

    maybe she needs time to clean up some loose ends .

    meanwhile , cast another line in the water (<= fishing term) .

  37. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: Yup, I’m on it.

  38. big o says:
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    @Grey:

    funny thing about relationships ,
    or , as i remember them ,
    a guy finds what could be “the one” , (or , a temporary one) ,
    and then expects that no one else should be interested in her .

    (think fantasy baseball “sleeper”) .

  39. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: Well, let’s remember this is just random girl that I talked to for about 20 minutes. I’m not even sure if I pick her out of a lineup, let alone think she’s the one.

  40. big o says:
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    @Grey:

    i couldn’t pick my sleeper out of a line-up , either .
    all i know is his name and that he’s cuban .

    hope nobody sticks me with one of those latin 29′s .

    which is why i think picking horses is easier .
    (they tattoo horses , don’t they ?)

    hey … just remembered ….did you ever get your lucky azz to a crap table ,
    back when you were running hot , about 3-4 weeks ago ?

  41. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @big o: Nah, never made it to a craps table. Thinking about going to Vegas next weekend, but no definite plans yet.

    @Steve: Have you been following this Cooks Source brouhaha? I think the Interwebs got one right this time.

  42. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Wow. No I wasn’t, but just read up on it.

    When you’re in a hole, sometimes it’s best to stop digging.

  43. Steve says:
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    Oh – and I can’t believe I forgot to cover off the big news of the day. The Dodgers have signed Jay Gibbons.

    They’re clearly looking at giving things a real good shake in ’11.

  44. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Al Gore invented the internet, internet mad at Cooks Source, how does Al Gore feel about Cooks Source? I’ll tell ya what, the outcry makes me proud to be a web surfer. Some nerve to try and steal other people’s work.

  45. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Jane Goddall just bought season tickets.

  46. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Aw, monkey! Now have it serve drinks to table 7, they’ve been waiting for over ten minutes!

  47. Steve says:
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    @Grey: Ah yes, our old friend the bar monkey. I’d forgotten about him.

    Forget outcries over plagiarism . That’s what the internet is all about.

  48. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Yes, the important stuff.

  49. Steve says:
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    @Grey: And fantasy baseball, don’t forget fantasy baseball.

    Oh – and porn.

  50. ThE sHiT says:
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    @Steve: @Grey: I cant keep up with you two sharp guys, but it sure is funny reading your conversations/posts.

  51. Steve says:
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    @ThE sHiT: I’m not sure my employer would agree (emoticon)

  52. ThE sHiT says:
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    @Steve: Lol, how many times have you gotten caught Razzballin?

  53. Steve says:
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    @ThE sHiT: Never. I work for a telco company so we don’t have any real restrictions on internet use.

    Apart from the obvious ones of course.

  54. ThE sHiT says:
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    @Steve: Sweet. I would be Razzballin all day if i worked in from of a cpu.

  55. ThE sHiT says:
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    @ThE sHiT: *front

  56. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Hehe

    @ThE sHiT: Eh, it doesn’t take much to keep up.

  57. royce! says:
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    Was it insanely hot in LA today? SD apparently hasn’t been this hot in November for at least 130-something years. The weather in southern California over the last 6 or so months has confused the shizz out of my fruit trees.

  58. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @royce!: Yeah, it’s was ugly hot today. I’m kinda done with this weather. Bring on the high-60′s and winter.

  59. and1mcgee says:
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    in light of Justin Dusch bag and Dempster… how was CJ Wilson’s year improbable? other than that, great piece.

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