So, how’s everyone holding up without baseball every day? I don’t know what to do with myself! Yesterday, I wandered into a Starbucks and told the coffeerista about Carlos Gonzalez for 2011. We’ve gone over the final 2010 fantasy baseball rankings for hitters and the top 20 starters. There’s only one of these godforsaken recap posts left before we’re into 2011 fantasy shizz. You’re welcome. Anyway, here’s the top 40 starters for 2010 fantasy baseball and how they compare to where I originally ranked them:
21. Tim Lincecum – I told you he’d be ranked number one overall! Only hadn’t anticipated the ‘2’ in front of the ‘1.’ As my Polish neighbor likes to say, “What can do?” Linecum was still putting the K in kd lang, but his WHIP was a flippin’ mess. Freak out. Preseason Rank #1, 2010 Projections: 18-5/2.70/1.00/250, Final Numbers: 16-10/3.43/1.27/231
22. Jonathan Sanchez – If you didn’t know I loved me some Filthy Sanchez going into 2010, you weren’t reading the site. Preseason Rank #82, 2010 Projections: 14-7/3.75/1.38/200, Final Numbers: 13-9/3.07/1.23/205
23. Brett Myers – Member how I talked about foreseeing the top 20 starters pretty clearly? Well, you don’t have to remember. Take my word for it. The top 40? Not so much. And if you think it was just me who didn’t see these starters performing as well as they did, think about how many of these guys were on your waivers at one time or another. R.A. Dickey, for one, was owned in less than 50% of ESPN leagues the entire year. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 14-8/3.14/1.24/180
24. Johan Santana – I thought I sorted wrong when I saw Johan ranked this high. He didn’t seem like a top 25 pitcher to me last year. His K-rate dropped below 7 for the first time in his career and his ERA shows that he was very lucky to only give up as many runs that he did. Then to put a vomit-flavored cherry on the sundae, his season ended with shoulder surgery. The days of “Should I draft Johan with my 2nd pick?” are long behind us. Preseason Rank #6, 2010 Projections: 18-7/3.15/1.18/200, Final Numbers: 11-9/2.98/1.18/144
25. C.J. Wilson – Had one of the more improbable seasons… If you’ve forgotten what Dempster did going from an okay reliever to a starter. Someone needs to start the ‘Pat Neshek For Starter’ campaign. Wilson’s IP jumped from 70+ to 200+, he gave up more than 4 walks per 9 IP and he threw his home starts in Arlington. Maybe he stole Scott Feldman’s mojo. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 15-8/3.35/1.25/170
26. Ted Lilly – He was out with the an injured shoulder the first month of the season so I got cold feet. Well, someone should’ve told me to wear my footy pajamas! *burp* Excuse me. So Lilly’s proven for 3 straight seasons he’s about as reliable as they come. Not exciting. Reliable. Preseason Rank #77, 2010 Projections: 10-6/3.85/1.10/100, Final Numbers: 10-12/3.62/1.08/166
27. Shaun Marcum – Returned from Tommy John surgery and showed Chastity Bono how to make post-op look good. Usually when TJ survivors return they’re shook ones with little control. Marcum only threw 43 BBs vs. 165 Ks. As they say in Spanish Harlem, that’s muy bueno, papi. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 13-8/3.64/1.15/165
28. Tommy Hanson – C.J. Wilson, Dickey, Myers, etc. etc. etc. were great last year, doesn’t mean I’m going to love them going forward. Every year there’s 20 or so starters that overperform. Last year Feldman, Buehrle, Happ showed up in the top 40. Didn’t make me shove them up the rankings for the following year. I bring this up now because Hanson is a guy that should take a step forward next year. Preseason Rank #29, 2010 Projections: 14-6/3.75/1.20/175, Final Numbers: 10-11/3.33/1.17/173
29. Colby Lewis – The low din of hype that followed Lewis back from The Land of the Rising Sun was on point. His Ks were there and his walks weren’t terrible. On a team that won 90 games, his under .500 record is puzzling and makes me think he might not be too overrated next year, especially since no one watched the postseason. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 12-13/3.72/1.19/196
30. Bronson Arroyo – I was one of the biggest proponents of trading for Arroyo around the All-Star break when he starts getting in his groove, but let’s be honest. He’s ranked this high because of his Wins. He gets 13 Wins instead of 17 and he’s nowhere on this list. Preseason Rank #72, 2010 Projections: 12-8/4.25/1.34/140, Final Numbers: 17-10/3.88/1.15/121
31. Hiroki Kuroda – This guy seems to be perennially underrated. I might have to shove a sleeper post down… Actually, Kuroda’s just so boring I can’t write a sleeper post about him, can I? Preseason Rank #70, 2010 Projections: 9-6/3.65/1.24/100, Final Numbers: 11-13/3.39/1.16/159
32. Francisco Liriano – I didn’t rank Liriano but I did give him his own sleeper post. Sounds a bit like crazy talk from a man who wears a potato sack and sings religious songs in Latin, but 2009 wasn’t kind to Liriano and it wasn’t until he rediscovered his velocity in winter ball did he get back on the fantasy map. The final numbers are actually a bit sadder than the reality. He was in the Cy Young race until his final few starts. Preseason Unranked, 2010 Projections: 12-9/4.05/1.34/155, Final Numbers: 14-10/3.62/1.26/201
33. John Danks – I’m going to admit to being completely perplexed by Floyd and Danks. One year one does seemingly better and one does seemingly worse according to their ERAs and FIPs. Next year, that reverses. Then reverses again. Now I know why Ozzie’s crazy. Preseason Rank #64, 2010 Projections: 12-7/4.15/1.30/155, Final Numbers: 15-11/3.72/1.22/162
34. Gio Gonzalez – The 2.56 ERA in Alameda makes him look like a straight homeschooler. I’m not sure I disagree either. His BBs are ugly, but he did lower them nearly a full one per nine. He left a bunch of men on, which helped hide how detrimental the walks could’ve been. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 15-9/3.23/1.31/171
35. Carl Pavano – Here’s another guy that probably won’t be draftable next year, but turned in a good season thanks to Wins. If you think he had a good season outside of Wins, look at his 117 Ks in 221 IP. That’s pretty unmanly. And that hurts me to say because we are brothers in ‘stache. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 17-11/3.75/1.19/117
36. Max Scherzer – The train completely derailed in the month of May, where he posted a 9.45 ERA. Then he was reborn in the holy Toledo water and returned to post a 2.47 ERA after the All-Star break. It was a reminder that he was once referred to by the name Jobacum because of his similarity to Joba and Lincecum, and that was when that was a big compliment. Preseason Rank #31, 2010 Projections: 12-8/4.00/1.32/165, Final Numbers: 12-11/3.50/1.25/184
37. R.A. Dickey – The valuable lesson to take away from this top 40 is — you could’ve drafted Beckett, Baker and Lackey as your first three starters and there’s still plenty of pitchers to grab to replace them. Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 11-9/2.84/1.19/104
38. Ryan Dempster – Wow, 208 Ks from Dempster. Wow. Due to getting batters to swing at pitches outside the strike zone at a 32.2% rate, he recorded his highest K-rate of his career at the age of 33. The way he’s going, by the time he’s forty he’s going to win a Cy Young. Preseason Rank #27, 2010 Projections: 13-8/3.90/1.28/170, Final Numbers: 15-12/3.85/1.32/208
39. Dan Haren – Overall, disappointing year for a top 10 pitcher going into the preseason, but it could’ve been much worse. A notorious 1st half pitcher coupled with the switch of leagues sounds like a guy that got pulverized in the 2nd half. Yeah, didn’t work out that way. 1st half ERA was 4.36. 2nd half was 3.34. Preseason Rank #8, 2010 Projections: 16-10/3.30/1.15/200, Final Numbers: 12-12/3.91/1.27/216
40. Jaime Garcia – He went slightly over the amount of innings he should’ve thrown. Like, oh, 125 2/3 IP too many. I doubt La Russa would abuse a squirrel’s arm that egregiously. Without knowing any advanced metrics or having a big brain like Brad, it’s pretty obvious from Garcia’s WHIP that he left a shizzload* of runners on base. (*A shizzload is smaller than a crapton, but still larger than a shizzton.) Preseason Unranked, Final Numbers: 13-8/2.70/1.32/132