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The royal we already went over all the hitters for 2013 fantasy baseball rankings.  That’s not the “royal we” as that term usually implies.  It was me writing it alone while wearing a Burger King crown.  I refuse to draft a top starter anywhere where they are usually drafted.  Unlike hitters, you need six starters, depending on your league depth.  Simple math tells us there’s starters to go around.  In most leagues, there’s a ton of guys on waivers that can help you — all year.  Not just in April, and then they disappear.  With the help of the Stream-o-Nator (it’s not populated right now because there’s no scheduled games), you can get by with, say, three starters while streaming the rest.  To read more about streaming as a draft strategy.  There’s also the fact that three stats by starters are difficult to predict due to luck.  Wins, ERA and WHIP are prone to shift due to which way the ball bounces and whether or not the guys behind the pitchers can do anything.  Finally, I’m good at projecting starters, so just fall back into my arms.  I won’t drop you.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 starters for 2013 fantasy baseball:

1. Justin Verlander – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here until Felix Hernandez.  I call this tier, “These guys are the best.  I will enjoy missing out on them.” There’s a huge caveat to this tier below in Strasburg’s blurb.  Verlander will definitely be drafted before I’m looking at starters.  He’s terrific, fantastic, adjective!  I don’t care.  Last year, I drafted one starter in the top 100 in the RCL and I had 57 out of a possible 60 pitching points.  Guys and four girls, you don’t need a top starter.  2013 Projections:  20-7/2.71/1.03/234

2. Stephen Strasburg – It will take every bit of willpower to resist my urge to draft Strasburg this year.  I’ve seen him ranked lower than the second starter overall and I almost ranked him first, so you can see how much I like him.  If he falls to the 5th through 10th starter off the board, I may just bite.  Verlander, Price and Kershaw have nowhere to go but down.  Strasburg has nowhere to go but up.  As frustrating as it was to watch Strasburg get shut down last September, 2013 owners will reap the rewards.  He could pitch 200+ innings with a 10+ K-rate.  That is the most beautiful sentence in the English language.  Followed closely by, “I am Kate Upton and I want to have sex with you then afterwards The Barefoot Contessa will make us meatloaf.”  So, basically, I’m telling you not to draft the first five starters under any circumstances, but if Strasburg is still on the board around the 6th starter, I ain’t hatin’, I’m liberatin’!  2013 Projections:  18-6/2.77/1.05/227

3. David Price – In case you hadn’t heard, David Price received an award this offseason.  Eh, who cares?  In that previous mentioned league where I only drafted one starter in the first 100 overall, I drafted Bumgarner.  Then Latos just after the top 100, then Anibal and then Gio a few rounds later.  Latos crapped my bed and called it Febreze, Anibal was passable until I dropped him when he was traded, and Gio worked out fine.  So I had two starters in the first 138 picks and I had 57 out of 60 points.  Price will be fine again this year; don’t draft him, for the love of all things holy, as a bagel store should claim.  2013 Projections: 16-8/2.90/1.09/210

4. Clayton Kershaw – I imagine a lot of people will have questions about Kershaw’s hip.  Wondering if he’ll be as good as he’s been.  How much will that wonky hip change his mechanics and his pitching?  Will he be completely healed and show no difference in his ability?  I got the answer for all of those questions.  Just don’t draft him.  Easy, right?  2013 Projections:  17-7/2.98/1.10/218

5. Felix Hernandez – Fantasy baseballers (<–my mom’s term!) in Quality Start leagues are joining a prayer parallelogram hoping their leaguemates use rankings that overcompensate for wins.  Hernandez tends to have a start or two each year where he looks bad, but his end of the year numbers are always still there.  As The Weeknd sings in their extended remix, “F-Her puts in work…F-Her puts in work…F-Her puts in work.”  2013 Projections: 14-9/3.10/1.12/219

6. Zack Greinke – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Gio.  I call this tier, “Like these guys; might draft one; don’t reach for multiple ones.”  This tier is filled with number one starters.  They are fine to own.  Do not draft more than one, and make sure you have a solid foundation of bats before drafting any of them; there will be lots of pitchers still to come.  When Greinke signed with the Dodgers, I said this, “If the new Dodgers’ ownership sole goal is to successfully move down the Google results for ‘Magic Johnson contracts’ they are doing an admirable job.  Forget the Doyers, they’re the Dollars.  So, now we know what Isiah Thomas has been up to.  He’s printing money in Magic’s basement.  “Yo, Magic, check out this hundred I made with a portrait of us kissing at half court.”  Gotta give it to the Giants’ GM, Brian Sabean.  He may have a penchant for guys five years past their prime, but at least he’s not building his team like the 2007 Yankees.  In 2010 while with the Brewers, Greinke had his best season peripheral-wise.  He had his lowest xFIP (2.56), highest K-rate (10.54) and lowest percentage of contact made for all pitches (75.8%).  He was undone by homers.  Miller Park ranked number one for all stadiums last year for homers hit, and tenth in 2011.   Dodger Stadium ranked 19th last year.  Miller Park in 2011 had a BABIP of .302 and Dodger Stadium had a .289 BABIP.  Last year at home, Brewers pitchers had a .302 BABIP and Dodgers pitchers had a .271.  Last year for runs, Miller Park ranked 10th; Dodger Stadium 22nd.  I didn’t touch Greinke’s time on the Angels, because I’m already at apples and oranges with Brewers vs. the Dodgers.  Angels to Dodgers is apples to kiwis with the league difference.  I’m gonna go out on a very sturdy limb and say Greinke likes to pitch in the National League and won’t mind pitching in Dodger Stadium.  If we don’t see one of the best Greinke years in 2013, I’ll eat my hat, and that hat is a floppy Diane Keaton one.” And that’s me quoting me!  2013 Projections:  16-8/2.97/1.12/215

7. Cole Hamels – I think the Phillies can surprise this year.  Sure, their lineup looks like a M.A.S.H. unit with eight Jamie Farrs.  *shudders*  Sorry, that image gave me the willies in the bad way, like in a prison shower.  If Halladay bounces back (which I do have concerns about) with Hamels and Lee, the Phillies won’t need to do much to get to the playoffs.  Hamels lost a bit on his walk rate last year, but he’s still in control, literally/figuratively.  At 29 years old, I think this is the year Hamels makes a serious run at Cy Young.  That’s assuming the talk in January about a sore shoulder is nothing.  He may get dropped down about ten spots if there’s issues in Spring Training.  Gotta be like a cyclops with a monocle with some of these guys.  2013 Projections:  16-6/3.04/1.09/212

8. Matt Cain – His Ks went up last year, but I’m not buying him for that.  His walks went down.  Not buying him for that either.  Had a career low ERA.  Nope, not that either.  One of the most important things when drafting a pitcher is finding stability.  Cain throws 200+ innings like it’s his job, which coincidentally it is.  I’m buying that.  2013 Projections: 15-8/2.95/1.04/191

9. Madison Bumgarner – Another year, another step forward.  Next thing you know Bumgarner’s going to be the best pitcher in all of baseball and folks are going to rename tight underwear, Bumgarters.  “My lady wears Bumgarters and I wear Fly Balls.”  Or he’ll pitch relatively the same and still be a solid number one.  He looks incredibly reliable for his 23 years of age.  He just put together back-to-back solid seasons that are so similar you need a ruler on your computer screen to separate the two.  2013 Projections: 16-9/3.28/1.08/195

10. Gio Gonzalez – Before looking at his stats, my gut was telling me Gio was going to be overrated this year.  How could he possibly live up to 2012?  Well, he probably can’t.  Never the hoo!  He can still produce a number one starter’s line.  His Ks aren’t to be trifled with, and as we know, Ks are the easiest thing to predict.  You don’t see many guys go from a 9+ K-rate to a 7 K-rate without them hiding an injury.  The reverse is also true.  So, what’s the worst thing that happens?  Gio Ks 200 hitters and gets unlucky with a 3.70 ERA?  It’s not great, it’s also not that bad.  As for Gio entering the whole PEDs conversation, at least Gio didn’t call Bud Selig’s wife fat.  There’s evidence that says Gio was on the list that no one wants to be on.  No, not Josie from Top Chef’s list of people she wants to hang out with.  There’s speculation that Gio took PEDs.  Of course, he denied any use, but the last player to say they intentionally did steroids was Lyle Alzado, so there’s not a long track record of players coming clean.  As of right now, the drugs that are listed that he took aren’t illegal, so he could escape the Scarlet Letters PEDs.  If he’s suspended, his ranking will obviously fall.  2013 Projections:  17-10/3.29/1.16/207

11. Cliff Lee -  This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Chapman.  I call this tier, “You’re mine and we belong together.”  I will go over the pairings at a later date for when to draft starters and who to pair them with, but quickly this tier is where I’m aiming my thick, bushy ‘stache.  If I get a starter prior to this tier, I probably won’t own one of these guys too.  There’s absolutely a chance I do though, because I’m higher on some of them than others.  This tier is similar to my Gio tier last year.  I didn’t think I’d own Bumgarner and Gio on any teams together, but Gio fell to 138 overall.  How could I not own him?  I doubt Lee falls that far, but Scherzer or Wainwright or Latos might.  I’m praying on my knees to the northwest at the crack of dawn that I own Cliff Lee this year.  Last year, he was terrific, except for wins.  Wins are unpredictable, so throw that stat out and recycle “wins are unpredictable” for another post.  2013 Projections:  13-10/3.05/1.06/212

12. Max Scherzer – I’m excited for Scherzer like a baboon who opens a bananas-only box of Runts.  After years of hinting at greatness, Scherzer finally put together an amazing year in 2012.  His K-rate of 11.08 was easily the best in the major leagues for pitchers with more than 160 innings.  Walks, his big problem in the past, were manageable.  His walk rate of 2.88 was better than league average.  If it wasn’t for some bad luck with balls hit into play, he’d be a top 10 starter this year across all ‘perts.  And his BABIP wasn’t even bad for the whole year.  His .442 BABIP in April produced an unsightly 7.77 ERA for that month.   You ask me who will be the best pitcher in the majors next year.  I answer Scherzer could be one of them.  2013 Projections:  15-6/3.30/1.24/225

13. Adam Wainwright – Honestly, where I see Wainwright being ranked by other fantasy baseball ‘perts, there’s little reason for me to believe I WON’T own him.  Caps for emphasis, not because my shift key is sticky.  Due to a career low in men left on base, his 2012 ERA of 3.94 is a world away from his 3.23 xFIP.  I was worried about him last year because he was returning from surgery, but, really, I had nothing to worry about.  He was much better than his ERA shows and exactly where he was prior to surgery.  As his ERA was near 4 last year, he could easily have a two and a half ERA this year.  I want to own him this year, my tootsie hole.  (My tootsie hole is my pet name for you.  You’re cute.)  2013 Projections:  16-8/3.12/1.19/193

14. Jordan Zimmermann – I’ll put it to you as plain as that hairy mole on your cheek that you nicknamed Brad.  If Zimmermann does not take a step forward, he’ll be worth this draft slot.  Now to get you all jazzed, Kermit Ruffins.  He’s 26 years old and about to enter his third season starting, the time when pitchers really break out.  In the minors, he showed a lot more Ks and last year his K-rate went up a tick from 2011.  His fastball also got a hair faster.  He gives up absolutely no free passes (13th best in the majors for starters).  Quick math for you:  Ks + no walks = François Truffaut.  Whoa, my math was way off there.  It was supposed to equal number one starter.  2013 Projections:  14-10/3.09/1.13/172

15. Mat Latos – As I went over in my Eric Hosmer sleeper post, I wrote how I worry that I’ll sometimes go back for more abuse because of a self-fulfilling, self-defeating self-self-self thing.  Latos falls into that category.  I drafted him last year and got none of the stuff that made Dallas Latos fall in love with him (I’m talking on the field; not the ceiling bedroom mirror or the three Pomeranians).  His 2nd half 2.84 ERA while limiting hitters to a .215 average are the stuff dreams are made of, assuming your fantasies are about fantasy.  You literal, sumbitch!  2013 Projections:  16-9/3.33/1.12/188

16. Matt Moore – Before you start lambasting me like the turkey you think I am for ranking Moore here, no one is drafting Moore 16th overall for all starters.  You draft, say, Greinke, then you wait seven or so rounds and draft Moore.  He’s your 2nd starter.  The same way I drafted Bumgarner and Gio last year.  You want me to sit here — and I am sitting — and rehash end of the season rankings and say that’s what you should do for 2013?  Is that helpful to anyone?  I’m telling you how to draft for 2013, not 2012.  There are a ton of rankings that just rehash last year.  I’m sure you can find them.  No, Moore, wasn’t great last year with a 3.81 ERA and an even worse 4.35 xFIP.  He had a 3.01 ERA 2nd half ERA and that was with a terrible month of September (5.48 ERA).  His 2nd half walk rate was 3.61 compared to his 4.54 in the first half.  In the minors, he didn’t have control problems.  Something was off in the first half of the year.  He had the 12th best K-rate last year at 8.88.  That number is paltry compared to his minor league numbers.  He has 10+ K-rate stuff.  Wanna a guy who gives top five starter numbers but comes at a third of the cost?  What Moore do you need?  2013 Projections:  15-9/3.19/1.23/225

17. Aroldis ChapmanUPDATEAroldis is now the closer.  2013 Projections:  6-2/2.35/0.95/118, 41 saves as a reliever

18. Jered Weaver – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the top 40 starters for 2013 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “On my HP Tablet, I designed this tier to be lower than others have them.  Now excuse me while I go over to the Lord & Taylor accessory wall.”  Unlike the first tier in the top 20 starters, this tier is meant to ignore because I don’t trust any of these starters.  They all have flashing signs over their heads that read, “I’m gonna fail to live up to expectations.”  The sign is in 8 point font so it can fit the whole phrase on there.  Where do we start with why Weaver is a flipping mess?  His K-rate last year — burp.  His xFIP last year — burp, burp, fart.  His fastball velocity last year — fart, fart, shart.  I nearly dropped him out of my top twenty, but I felt ranking him here was late enough so he’d be off the board by the time I needed to draft a starter.  Also, I’m probably only drafting one pitcher from all twenty of these guys, chances are I won’t need Weaver.  2013 Projections:  16-7/3.33/1.10/172

19. CC Sabathia – In the offseason, he had a bone spur removed from his elbow.  The Yankees’ pitching coach, Larry Rothschild (no relation to Larry Rothsbrother) said that the Yanks would limit CC’s workload in 2013.  When a pitching coach is talking about limiting a pitcher in December, how much better do you think the pitcher is going to get, say, 150 innings into the season?  If you answered “less better,” that’s an awkward phrase but I understand what you mean.  2013 Projections:  16-10/3.56/1.20/188

20. Chris Sale – I’m here from the future.  *wavy lines*  The day is August 1st, 2013.  Greetings, earthlings!  Don’t worry, I’m not an alien.  I’m also an earthling.  But the greeting, “Greetings, earthlings!” becomes a common thing to say to your friends in the near future after a little known Bangladeshi artist, Bappi, comes out with a YouTube sensation, “Greetings, Earthlings-style!”  Some think it’s just a lazy Gangnam rip-off, but… Anyway!  On August 1st, 2013, Chris Sale brings his 4.00+ ERA back from the DL and I say, “He threw too many innings in 2012 and it’s caught up to him in a bad way.  I told you not to draft him, earthlings.”  So now when I quote that, I’ll be able to point out how I was right about Chris Sale and Bappi.  2013 Projections:  13-6/3.45/1.18/178

203 Responses

  1. AJ says:
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    So I take it you like the two starters I’m keeping in my 14 teamer — Waino and Moore in the 21st and 22nd rounds, respectively?

    Last year you gave us guidance along the lines of: “If you haven’t gotten a starter yet, get one of these guys” and “If you took a guy in Tier A, you’ll need a second starter by Tier B.” Any chance you’ll be doing that again?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @AJ: Yup, doing that again…

      • Furious says:
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        @Grey: Loved the tier stuff you posted last year, really helped shape my SP draft strategy and led me to the playoffs.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, it’ll be up in the next week or so…

  2. Steve says:
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    Awwww, there I was all set to go relievers-only in the ol’ h2h and there you go getting me all excited about starting pitching again.

    *Sighs heavily* So, in an h2h league, who is the absolute last guy you’d take as a #1? Or is he still to come?

    • Drafted Kendrick says:
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      @Steve: I think you have to throw a lot of Grey’s logic out the window in H2H leagues. You’ll end up getting destroyed in the pitching cats when you play guys with top notch starters and you’re streaming Vance Worley. I’d like to hear Grey’s rebuttal though…

      (Especially if you’re in a league that doesn’t allow for streaming of multiple MR and closer due to a 5 pitcher daily cap and 40inning min)

      • Fungazi says:
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        @Drafted Kendrick: Nope, it completely works in H2H leagues, I did it in one with a 2 add per week cap also. It just needs an adjustment in that you aren’t looking for new streamers every night, but more guys that go on a good one-two month stretch. Thinking of the Capuano/Fiers type guys. Remember the top guys can fail also, ever heard of Lincecum? Fart,fart, shart.

        • Todd25 says:
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          @Fungazi: @Fungazi: Yep i agree, It works in H2H too. The only 2 pitchers i drafted in the first 110 picks last year was Gallardo and Gio. and i finished 2nd overall in pitching categories and finished 3rd overall. The Grey Wizard knows!

          • SanFran1966 says:
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            @Todd25:

            I followed the logic, although selected pitchers in the 5th & 9th, and then late won my 12 team H2H money league. Weekly settings and streamed projected 2 start pitchers…

        • Drafted Kendrick says:
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          @Fungazi: that makes sense since I’m guaranteed to be able to 1) identify the next capuano and fiers and 2) get him because nobody else tries to find those guys….

          • Fungazi says:
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            @Drafted Kendrick: They are there every year. The season one before was Beachy & Luebke, just keep your eyes open and your finger out of your ass.

      • Jef says:
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        @Drafted Kendrick:
        The Biggest difference is in a H2H points league. You either want 2-3 guys from this list or hope there’s an insane SP run and hitters like Justin Upton and A-Gone are falling to rounds 4-5. I’ve had both happen.

      • Braun bomb baby says:
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        @Drafted Kendrick: my h2h league uses categories, its like a weekly roto league. I find drafting 2 ace quality guys and then loading up on closers/relievers with high k rates works. We also count Ls, so it guarantees you win saves, losses, era and whip most weeks. Thats 4 of the 6 pitching categories. So Greys analysis helps in some H2H models.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Steve: In the next likable tier…

      • Steve says:
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        @Grey: Wow, pretty deep. I’m assuming that of the guys you like, Moore is probably the guy you’re likely to be able to draft the latest from your top 20, and who could produce like a #1?

        And speaking of likable, give this a listen…

        http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXx1CLAJ-OA

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, I think that’s fair to say about Moore… Will give it a listen when I get back home, commenting from my phone…

    • mauledbypandas says:
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      @bossmanjunior: it’s sort of annoying that the hand on the award is a righty.

      • bossmanjunior says:
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        @Grey:

        My understanding that there is no reason. He apparently names everything. He chose Clarence because it starts with “c”

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Makes as much sense as any!

  3. Chicago Mark says:
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    What concerns do you have about Scherzers shoulder? Very concerned here.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Chicago Mark: Don’t think there’s a problem right now to worry about it…

      • Chicago Mark says:
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        @Grey:
        Hey Grey, he had a sore shoulder at the end of last year. Lost some velo and missed a start or two during the end of the season.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, I don’t think that’s a problem right now…

  4. prezii says:
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    Im scared of this years draft for the fact i may just go and draft chapman in the first round.. no, but i know for a fact im going to reach. Im okay with that! But i dont want some dumbass (smartass) taking him in the 5th round. Inning limit or not, this guy is going to be disgusting as a starter.

    In a ten team, deep roster(like 25 spots?) points league… Where is a LOGICAL round to target him? We roster like 10 starters… its pretty rediculous.. and i say logical so i can pencil him in two rounds earlier.

    • Clifford says:
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      doesnt it concern you that over 87% of his pitches were fastballs, and he never threw anything but fastball or slider?…he’s not going to average 97+ MPH as a starter unless he wants his arm to fall off by the 4th inning, so lets say he settles in around 95-96….his slider is nice, but as he starts to tire in the 5th and 6th inning, and guys are seeing his fastball for the 3rd and 4th times, i think he could run into issuess…major league hitters can hit gas if they know its coming.

      • prezii says:
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        @Clifford: that is a good point but im sure they will craft something together for that issue, no? That is a good point tho. He does have a 2 seamer and a changeup which if he can utilize that, watch out. Your concern can be made in any case of a high velocity reliever switching to the rotation. Im willing to take the risk i guess.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @prezii: Probably need to draft him in the 7th round…

      • prezii says:
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        @Grey: thanks greyski! I doubt anybody grabs him before then.. if i can get him in the 8th or 9th ill be laughng to the bank.. but i dont want to risk it. My ass will be chapped, man.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ha… No problem…

  5. Powerslave says:
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    what about the teams where your pitching strategy backfired??? Should the strategy be different if the league is deeper (15 teams) with 1000 IP minimum , plus no chance @ streaming since most starters are owned already??, It seems “Elite” starting pitching thins out in a hurry, with 9 pitching spots and SPs affecting 4 categories that much, To me it makes sense to grab 400 innings plus of Felix and Cain in 3/4 rounds and then concentrate on hitters for next 5/6 rounds, my 2 cents…

    • Drafted Kendrick says:
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      @Powerslave: I’m in a league where elite starters are either kept or drafted in the first 2 rounds. So when people say “oh you can just draft offense then LOL silly fantasy noob” just remember that longoria, tulo, etc happens…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Powerslave: Most of our leagues are 15 team or deeper… You only need one number…

  6. AJA says:
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    Congrats on the engagement!

    In my opinion league context makes a big difference for how important it is to reach for top starters. In leagues where each team rosters 8-9 or more starters, it can be very hard to stream effectively.

    Also, in H2H leagues, I find that top starters are more consistent from week to week than top hitters so you can dominate the pitching categories with a couple of top SPs more easily than you can hitting categories by using all the early draft picks on hitters.

    • OaktownSteve says:
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      @AJA:

      AJA as in STEELY DAN? Great album.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @AJA: Thanks! I find that in H2H leagues pitching is more about depth…

  7. RAMen says:
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    No RA Dickey love – tsk, tsk. Not a believer?

  8. Eddy says:
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    Grey,

    In my 12-team H2H keeper league, I have Dickey, Strasburg and Moore. At what round would you draft a 4th SP? My league overvalues pitching, btw.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Eddy: You have three aces, you don’t need anymore pitching for a while… Around Fister in my rankings, he’ll be up in a day or two…

  9. ML says:
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    Alot of faith in seamless conversion to starter for chapman…I dunno…innings, 2 pitches, potential for uptick in walk rate…I’ll wait a year..

    • Clifford says:
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      Did you see Chris Sale pitch last year?

      • Ml says:
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        @Clifford: I did, but what’s your point? Sale through more chance ups in June than chapmans thrown in his career.

  10. joe says:
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    nice to see scherzer and latos ranked in the top 20!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @joe: Oh, yeah…

  11. SanFran1966 says:
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    Gio with PEDs Top 20. Without?

  12. Frankenstein says:
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    Long-time reader Grey, before all these hot chicks decided it was cool to get into fantasy baseball. Question – when, if ever, will you reveal your true self? And why not have done so already? Tired of feeling Catfished by you!

    Surprised to not see Darvish on here, since you love you some K’s.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Frankenstein: Maybe on my last day on earth, it’ll be like my Rosebud… Darvish will be up soon…

  13. Pine Tar Incident says:
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    I agree with your “don’t own a top-starter” mantra, generally. I’m struggling with a keeper conundrum – Jose Reyes or Kershaw for the last spot (12 team, H2H, 5X5, keeping TROUT!, Miggy, and Kemp). Normally I’d prefer the hitter, but Kershaw should have 2 Cy’s at age 24 and pitches in Dodger stadium. Who would you keep?

  14. Greetings January Grey! Thoroughly enjoying your annual rankings which have guided many a successful draft for my teams. Never more evident than with your astute pitcher prognostications. In a bit of a quandary with a H2H 10 Team League where players are retained in their 2012 draft slot. With streaming a limited option due to a cap on moves, it’s pretty important to have one stud arm. Would you recommend keeping the now risky Kershaw as a 4th rounder, MadBum as a 7th, Juicey Gio as a 13th, or Zimmmmermannn in the 14th? Thanks Grey. Diggin’ the new layout.
    Oh, and before your Utility rankings are released, as your two lady razzballers sigh, please note the recent retirement of Nick Johnson.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @zombie: Hey, zombie, Bumgarner… No problem, thanks! Yeah, I don’t think I’m doing UTIL rankings this year, will just stick Ortiz in my top 400 and be done with them…

  15. Commish Cauda says:
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    Which 2 OFs would you rather have for the next 5 years?

    BJ Upton
    Nick Markakis
    Alex Rios
    Michael Bourn
    Dayan Viciedo
    Adam Eaton
    Brett Gardner
    Hunter Pence

      • birrrdy! says:
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        @Grey: wow, Eaton? I may need to rethink my decision to not keep him for $1 in my NL only. You must be feeling average upside to the .270 you predicted for him since he’s doubtful to ever hit more than 10 HRs and SBs will probably fall somewhere in the 30s with a full season of ABs. Am I missing anything?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          @birrrdy!: Question was for over the next five years… He could be Victorino for the next five years which is a solid #2 OF, whereas the rest of those guys are trending the wrong way…

          • birrrdy! says:
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            @Grey: thanks! very helpful!

  16. Tyler says:
    (link)

    Does Medlen crack the top 20 by the end of the season?

    • I don’t see it – mainly b/c I don’t think he’ll get enough IP. My projection is 161 IP right now and he’d need to pitch last Strasburg last year to get to top 20 with that amount of innings. Maybe Top 20 value per start…

      • Todd25 says:
        (link)

        @Rudy Gamble: wow, only 160? i thought for sure they give him 180ish since he had at least 12 starts and totaled 140ish IP last year (granted some was in bullpen). You thinking Braves play conservative with him another year?

        • I dug into the stats and found an anomaly with Medlen. I estimate GS and then multiply vs. last year’s IP/GS. With Medlen, because he pitched so much relief, the formula defaulted to the league average of 5.75. Given that he pitched closer to 7 IP/GS, I moved him up to 6.25 which gets him to 175 IP. Uploading it now but I’m sure that increases his $ value by a bunch…

          • Tyler says:
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            RUDY! RUDY! RUDY! …Psyched about the Steamer/razzball projections….
            Do you have any recommendations for draft software to upload the steamer/razzball projections into? I would like to use a live draft software with these projections, but the mac people don’t get much play these days…
            Thanks man!

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Our war room should be able to help you… It’s coming next week…

              • Tyler says:
                (link)

                Thanks Grey, and thank you for all the great work!

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  No problem…

            • TYLER! TYLER! TYLER! Haven’t found a live draft software to my liking but we have some news on that front in the coming days. Stay tuned.

  17. free says:
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    save the site, looking for help on my 10 team 5 person keeper league

    trout
    c. gonzalez
    tulo
    j. hamilton
    adam jones
    ryan. zimmerman
    chapman
    m. bum
    sale
    hamels
    wainwright

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @free: Trout, CarGo, Tulo, Jones, Hamilton…

    • Vacation says:
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      @free: If you’re saying you can only keep 5 I’d go with the first 5 you listed, even though it is OF heavy. If you are insistent on keeping a pitcher I’d sub MadBum for Hamilton, but I’d keep all five offesive guys and then use grey’s ranking to nab good pitching talent in the draft.

  18. Mac says:
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    Grey,

    Can only keep 2 out of these 3 players in an 8 team 5X5 Roto.

    Categories = OBP, HR, RBI, Runs, SB and W, L, ERA, K’s, Saves (That’s right…no WHIP)

    Which two would you keep?

    Darvish
    Kipnis
    Cespedes

    THANKS BRO HAM!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Mac: Darvish, Cespedes… No prob-ham…

  19. MattTruss223 says:
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    Fully expected to see Chris Sale on Rudy’s “Risky Pitcher” list this year. Big jump in innings, plus he throws a slider 26.2% of the time. Someone else can have fun with that.

    • Yeah, he’d be the poster child for Risky Pitchers…

  20. GT says:
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    No way I’m Latosing before I’m Medlening this year.

  21. Buck says:
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    Grey,

    Interested to hear what your draft day strategy AND your daily/weekly pitching strategy would be for the following 12-team H2H league: (W, L, ERA, WHIP, SV, K, CG, SHO — NO INNINGS MAX and NO ACQUISITIONS MAX).

    Enjoy your posts!

  22. Todd25 says:
    (link)

    Grey, are y’all going to update and reup the draft pitcher pairings tool the Awesomus made last season? that thing was sexy like i’ll get out.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Todd25: Not sure if Awesomus will update, will have to be on him since he did it…

  23. Eric says:
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    Im in a dynasty league. We get to leep 4. 3 of my keepers will be Bryce/Trout/M Cab. My 4th comes down to Cain/Wainwright/or Lee. Thoughts?

  24. Big Magoo says:
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    What a nice surprise – I thought that the DH rankings were scheduled for today for some reason and I checked in to see where Luke Scott was slotted. You trickster! I owned Price in three leagues last year but that sure as hell isn’t happening this year. This year’s Price – Waino. I hated him last year coming off TJ, but I love his value this year. I guess your Price is Grienke though (I’ve never trusted him, but he looks affordable so far). I like Halladay too even though your rankings seem skeptical of him. There are workload and age concerns, but we’re talking about a first-ballot HOFer who was a consensus second round pick as recently as last year. I’m buying, especially where he’s likely to be available.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Big Magoo: Yeah, not sure if I’m doing DH rankings this year, I just ranked Ortiz in the top 400 and called it a day…

      • Big Magoo says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Good call – DHs would probably be the only rankings more yawnstipating than catchers. Thoughts on Halladay? Or save the debate for tomorrow (unless you’re really down on him)?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Save the debate for tomorrow…

          • Big Magoo says:
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            @Grey: Dig it. So who goes home on TC tonight? Or did drunken Stefan provide spoilers for you?

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              He did give me spoilers, but I won’t then spoil for you…

  25. Beastman says:
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    Grey, I hope we don’t see your magnificient ‘stache on the next PED list. Please reassure me it’s all natural!

    Looking for some insight on my keeper league. 16 teams, $260 budget, each team usually rosters 8 to 10 SPs. Deep rosters and small FAAB budget, so streaming SPs isn’t a huge factor. Would you keep keep Hamels for $28 or try to trade him for 1 or 2 cheaper options in the lower tiers? For context, the Verlander/Price/Strasburg tier players usually go for $35-40.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Beastman: I deny any PEDs use! I’d keep Hamels, but I guess it depends what you could get for him…

  26. Beastman says:
    (link)

    Grey, I hope we don’t see your magnificent ‘stache on the next PED list. Please reassure me it’s all natural!

    Looking for some insight on my keeper league. 16 teams, $260 budget, each team usually rosters 8 to 10 SPs. Deep rosters and small FAAB budget, so streaming SPs isn’t a huge factor. Would you keep keep Hamels for $28 or try to trade him for 1 or 2 cheaper options in the lower tiers? For context, the Verlander/Price/Strasburg tier players usually go for $35-40.

  27. nightpandas says:
    (link)

    Only two months to go…..

    Can I get your thoughts on keepers? Keep 7, 15 team 6×6 (OPS) roto league, won last year, missing my 2nd and 3rd picks. Think I still have a shot for this year.

    Keeping: Kemp, Pujols, Bruce, Kinsler
    Need 3 of this group: Rizzo, AJax, ARam, Rollins, Dickey, Latos, Morrow, Medlen

    Thanks Grey!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @nightpandas: Yeah, you have a shot… Latos, Medlen, Rizzo if you have a corner slot… If not, Rollins…

  28. EDUB says:
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    I recently traded a $20 A Gon and $16 MadBum for a $21 J Upton and $6 Peavy in my 5×5 mixed keeper. No MI/CI and only 3 OF. $5 to extend the following season. I got burned by pitching last year in the worst way with Pineda, Beachy, Luebke, and Wilson all going down to injury, pitching just seems like such a crapshoot i said the hell with it, but what’s your take?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @EDUB: Sounds good…

      • EDUB says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        Phew, i can finally sleep peacefully…until Peavy gets hurt

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ha, yup…

  29. Jon says:
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    First want to say love the site its my go to for rankings.

    I have first pick in a keeper league, keep 6. It will be wright or zimmerman.

    I have a tough choice ive been offered gio for longo – and also weaver and chapman for longo. The second ond id have to throw back hosmer and craig, who i could redraft.

    Which one is better ? Thanks grey

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Jon: Thanks! I’d take Weaver and Chapman…

  30. Reno 911 says:
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    I see you are high on Scherzer, as am I. You still wouldn’t trade Cargo for him? H2H points league where top SPs score more points than hitters…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I wouldn’t…

  31. The Situation says:
    (link)

    @Grey, @ Rudy: Thanks for the rankings – looking forward to another season with you guys. When does the podcast start back up?…. Anyways, I need to choose 4 keepers in my 5×5, 12-teamer. Keepers get bumped down a round if a team keeps more than 1 player with the same round value. This league is top player keeper heavy and top bat keeper heavy (i.e., best projected players will be A-Gon, Goldy and a few of the players I don’t keep, as well as Greinke, Hamels, Gio, Lee, etc.). I will be drafting from the 10 spot in each round that I have a pick.

    My potential keepers include:
    1st round: Pujols
    2nd round: Verlander
    2nd Round: Felix
    2nd Round: Kinsler
    2nd Round: Bruce
    3rd Round: McCutchen
    3rd Round: Pedroia
    8th Round: J. Zimmermann
    22nd Round: Dickey
    22nd Round: Craig
    22nd Round: I. Desmond

    I think Pujols and McCutchen are locks in the 1st and 3rd – I won’t be able to replace their production if I throw them back. I’m leaning toward either: (a) keeping Verlander and the next best bat (which would cause me to forfeit my top 4 picks), (b) keeping 4 bats at the top (i.e., Kinsler and Bruce in addition to Cutch and Pujols), or (c) keeping Pedroia in the 3rd, keeping either Dickey or Craig in the 22nd (or J-Zimm in the 8th), and freeing up my 2nd round pick (it would be ~6th overall pick and I’m sure I could net Goldy there). Which option would you choose and which 4 would you keep?

    Thank you in advance for answering a very involved question.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Podcast will probably start at the end of Feb. I’d go B…

  32. Jay says:
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    which group would you rather go into a draft where your first pick is the 5th pick of the 6th round and then no picks util 4th pick of 9th rd with:

    Braun, Votto, Longo, Cain, Hamels
    or
    Braun Longo Felix Stras, either Cain/Hamels

    One caveat – there are two teams that traded away players for picks last and own 8 and 10 picks between my first two picks. that plus the pitching that is already being kept, My concern is that all decent pitching options you could normally wait on will be gone by then. Going with the second group I can move either hamels or Cain for an earlier pick.

    thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      First five…

  33. I know, you said something about the DH????.. … Ortiz – I guess, that is all to there is to say… The Downfall of the DHer Only Player in the AL is a worthy Fantasy BB topic… FanGraphs or some other site should delve into it…

    A Yahoo driven perspective below: You have a good tendency – being, not to hold back on your predictions … You have done it here, again… This makes your site more fun than others – even without your fine quip-tic style of presentation (it being, better than rest of the mob’s by light years).. ((((Is the possessive correct on mob’s there???? For some reason, it stopped me dead in my tracks… I think, it is.. Not important)))… Moving on

    Max Scherzer, Jordan Zimmermann and Matt Moore are your “Picks” besides Chapman on this list … They have replaced Dicky (Knuckleballer!!!), Halladay (No XOXO anymore), Shields??? (KC!!!) and many other arms – your fellow forcasters might have mentioned on a list such as this….. Fun stuff!!!

    Moore is a hard one for me as he still may be a year away IMO… And he was over-priced last… year… No signs this will change.. The future may be bright.. But, it is a tough division still… Again, a year away… ***** Few high end risks are taken in the Miyagi Method with young SPing – He does not make it here IMO

    Scherzer (good Name Factor)… He has learned his trade… The Ks are there…He seems ready…. He may not come reasonable enough… Good team for Wins… Will be hard to lay off of… But, my prejudices probably will mean I’m a half a round late… Maybe, a good thing as my hitting will be anemic per usual by that point.. He belongs here.. Sadly for me…

    Zimmerman’s K rate drives me away – even with the recent spike in his popularity.. He won’t be on my team.. You are showing him at acceptable K levels… If he makes those, you’re right and I am wrong…

    Chapman – Is he a Closer or a SP … Or is he a SP or a Closer… When, the Reds figure this out, then I will…. Bjarkman had doubts about his makeup at one point – back during the bidding war for Chapman… He tempered this – based on his age… And admitted, it was driven by the hype of Andy’s expected immediate results to be sure… Noticed, he had an recent article on him that I have not read — a must read for me now.. Jury is still out IMO… ***** Closers have reduced value in Yahoo than what is attached to them in many Roto value rating systems… You need a bunch them – but never too early .. This is discussed in the Miyagi Method Handbook, Page 137

    Of all those guys above, if there and Halladay is too, I’ll take Roy – believing, last year was an anomaly… Show me!!! Before I believe, these younger guys above are the new Gods of the Rubber.. And the Phillies, Roy and Cliff are BACK!!!… They are not a bad old club as so many others seem to think…. (Cliff Lee may drop down a few rounds too = Yum Yum!!!)… Phillies = Wins in 2013!!!

    I am a “Ks ueber allen” man in Yahoo… Not as much as before, when it had the ridiculous Max. Innings pitched number… 3 top flight pitchers use to be the key success… It is now 4…

    My goal is to have at 2 of these pitchers off this list’s top..

    Thanks for the tip on CC’s reduced innings… Huge info for me… I like C.C. too much… It is OK for pitchers to be fatsos…. Terry – Snack Bar – Forster was one of my favorites of all time… Loved the guy…

    I assume, the Brewers staff will fill out your next 20 slots… The Brewers are back too!!!!!

    #s 20 – 60 in SP lists are the game… Can hardly wait until tomorrow…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Terry “The Snack Bar” — HA! Thanks for the kind words! I hear ya on Moore and Zimmermann, I believe in their stuff and you can’t teach stuff, you can teach how to harness stuff, which is all they need a small uptick in… Zimmermann is practically there with the Ks, Moore is practically there with the control… Just need a small uptick…

      • @Grey:
        Snack Bar could hit too… To bad, he trouble running to first base.. He might have extended his career…

        O’ forgot to comment… The Stream-O-Matic thingy is mostly hot stove carny after-the-facts-are-in sophistry – Statistical “Cherry Blossom Picking” mumbo-jumbo…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          The best kind of mumbo-jumbo!

  34. supra says:
    (link)

    Grey, can you open a bagel shop in NJ called “For the Love of All Things Wholey”?

    I’ll have a Taylor Ham, egg and cheese, SPK, on a garlic bagel. I’ll eat it while day dreaming of Bumgartner in his tighty whities. Thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I want that to happen, like, yesterday!

  35. marti says:
    (link)

    Here are my keepers gotta keep 6, you lose the round you keep them in, roto 12 team dynasty league.

    J up 5
    Bumgarmer 10
    Andrus 11
    Rios 16
    A Craig 23
    Joey Bats 28
    Sjmardzia 30
    Todd Frazier 31

    I was planning on throwing back rios and andrus. Do you think Sjmardzia is a capable #2.

    Would you trade Bumgarmer round 10 for adam jones round 4.

    In my league last year, I drafted 1 pitcher in the first 15 rounds, i had beachy and bumgarmer as keepers and I ended up with the best era and was 2nd in whip so it can be done.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yes re: Samardzija… He’s a decent enough #2… Yes, I’d take Jones… Throw back Rios and Andrus…

  36. PujolsJunkie says:
    (link)

    Strong start to the pitcher rankings, Grey. I plan to own Cliff Lee in every league I’m in this year. Can you give me some advice on a trade in my contract keeper league?

    $125 cap, players can be signed to contracts for 1-3 years with re-signs being worth double the previous price for one more year (e.g.: player signed for $1 for 2 years is $1 for 2013 and 2014, then can be re-signed for $2 in 2015, and then $4 in 2016, etc.). I have a ton of money to spend at auction with far more pieces in place than teams with less money, so I have a lot of flexibility.

    Would you deal Jesus Montero ($2, 1 year) and Jaime Garcia (50 cents, 1 year) for Goldschmidt ($6.25, 2 years)? Pujols, Prince, E5, Craig and Tex are all available at auction and based on previous experience, the top guys will be around the $17-18 range. Goldy’s contract is a bargain in comparison, even if I’m giving two cheaper guys up. I’m fine at catcher with Rosario for 25 cents, and have Bumgarner ($2, 1 year), Morrow ($4, 1 year), Samardzija (75 cents, 1 year), Wei-Yin Chen (25 cents, 2 years), Brett Anderson ($2, 1 year), Lance Lynn ($1.50, 1 year), Pettitte ($2, 1 year), Bud Norris (50 cents, 1 year) and Randall Delgado (50 cents, 1 year). Would you do this deal, and which arms (if any) would you replace Garcia with in the deal if you could? Thanks man. I know this was a long one…lol

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks! I’d do that deal for Goldy…

      • PujolsJunkie says:
        (link)

        Thanks man. Can you tell me which arms you’d rank over Garcia in this instance?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I’d get rid of Garcia… Pettitte could also go…

          • PujolsJunkie says:
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            Yeah Pettitte is who I offered first and he rejected. Thanks a lot Grey. I appreciate it. Going to do this.

  37. Mike says:
    (link)

    NL only keepers i have access to.
    5 slots
    Skaggs $1
    Teheran $1
    Delgado $1
    Lynn $1
    Pomeranz $1
    Luebke $6
    Beachy $10
    Corbin $1

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Skaggs, Teheran, Lynn, Luebke, Beachy…

  38. Hats for Bats says:
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    I’ve done a bunch of mocks on CBS and have an issue with getting a good 1st SP.

    Last year I actually drafted 4 offnesive players and then got David Price in the 5th. Worked out well for me.

    As it stands now with mock drafting, I’ve been grabbing 4-5 offensive players first and then I’m left with slim pickens for a top tier. The best names I see are Peavy, Medlen, Halladay, Sale, Darvish. Should I be happy getting one of these guys to be my ace.

    I play in a 12 team yahoo 7 X 7 that has W/L/CG

    PS – can you do a HOLDS league Middle Reliever Review? Last year you just reviewed middle relievers but didn’t really focus on guys with real hold potential and the likelihood of them becoming the closer, etc

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      No, they’re not ideal #1′s, but mocks aren’t the real thing and people sometimes do wonky things in mocks… Yeah, I can try and do a Holds post…

      • Jack Full of Hate says:
        (link)

        @Grey: If you do a Holds post then you should do a short Quality Starts post, you can also outsource it to Sky. From what I gathered he does nothing but write posts, drinks fancy beers and eats nachos.

        speaking of these other categories, I think we need a good reminder post of the ridiculous nature of categories that are ridiculous. Like complete games, shutouts, and hits.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Ha… Yeah, I’m not sure if the Holds post will happen, but Quality Starts isn’t much different than these rankings… Good pitchers get Quality Starts… I don’t really rank many guys due to their Win potential…

          • Jack Full of Hate says:
            (link)

            @Grey: I know a lot of the elite are great QS guys, but I recall a lot of so so guys are great for QS. They give up 3 runs a game and go only 6 innings. One season JarJar was a top 5 QS guy. So in those leagues you can get a lot of value in later round guys. I guess that my point. I use to kill it in my old QS league.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Ah, yeah, I hear ya… Damn, Jar-Jar…

              • Hats for Bats says:
                (link)

                @Grey: First off, Jack dont Hate. Secondly, QS is an easy sort on mlb.com and the names are all familiar. As for holds, SHAGNOF . . . cuz saves and holds are very similar. Holds guys that do well and have a shot at being closers are still very valuable. Some of them even become donkeycorns. . . so yeah. Please do a HOLDS post Obi Grey Kenobi. You’re my only hope.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Holds guys and closers are similar as in there’s no telling what will happen with them…

    • Jack Full of Hate says:
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      @Hats for Bats: In real life drafts if everyone takes pitchers then you get all the offense and they come knocking to make trades.

  39. Jack Full of Hate says:
    (link)

    Im glad to see Jack Full of Realism got through to you last season when I told you Sale was going to be a risky overly valued arm this year. Too many innings for a converted reliever, but 2014 will be the year of the fire sale or fire on sale, cause that will be what he will look like on your team. Literally your team page will spontaneously have fire appear on your screen every fifth day. I think you were just high on the season and that cold so cal winter of 60 degree days in early January got you back to reality. I hate jacket week in LA, everything comes back to reality. wow, my girlfriend really does hate me, I never noticed with all the great weather we have 350 days a year.

    My gut says Greinke will be the top pitcher in the NL this year and will win people leagues. I mean a lot of leagues. I love when guys go AL to Nl, even if the AL stint was short. But what I love is him being in the NL west. He gets the cuddly confines of Chavez Ravine as home, he gets to play the poor hitting Padres in Petco and at home. He gets the Giants, who don’t have the strongest hitting team out there, until they got hot in august and everyone forgets the first 4 months of the season. Colorado still sucks and Tulo and Cargo will both get hurt. The best hitter on the D-Backs is gone. Yes, they have Goldschminger, but his line-up protection is gone. My gut has been the best source of fantasy info I have ever known, no offense Professor Grey, but his hit rate is like 75% percent. Now my mind will be be wrong more often than not because it over thinks things, but my gut is a genius.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yup, 2014 will be a great year again for Sale… It’s Saberhagenmetrics at work… Yeah, Greinke vs. the Padres, Giants and home vs. the Rockies and Diamondbacks are gonna be things of beauty… I really could see a 2.50 ERA from him this year with 22 wins…

      • Jack Full of Hate says:
        (link)

        @Grey: last year my gut said Cain and Mad Max and that worked out well for me. Both at great value considering where I drafted them.

  40. birrrdy! says:
    (link)

    My guess is that Cliff Lee won’t fall this far. He’s as steady as they come for 200 IP, and some of these younger guys haven’t gone through their injury phase yet (Bum, Kersh, Gio). I don’t see it with Greinke and Hamels as better options (Hamels is battling shoulder soreness right now, and Bryce Harper will probably hit a liner up the middle on him as karma for last year — also, Greinke’s W hype this year should remind you Grey of your 2012 Marlins comparison a la JJohnson and Anibel). Even the mighty Cain is more of a 180 K guy with perhaps a bit more upside in ERA. I’ll take Lee’s extra 30-40 Ks and the same rock-solid innings.

    Last 5 years, Lee’s innings have been 211/233/212/232/223. During that time, his cumulative average ERA has been 2.896 and average WHIP 1.102. Plus, his K rate has been higher the last two years than ever before and he has averaged 223 Ks/yr in 2011-12 and 196 Ks/yr for the entire 5 yr period. The guy’s a flippin’ stud, and the Ws debacle from last year should correct dramatically to around 14-15 Ws you can bank on.

    Some say he’s “old.” (Do adverbs ever get old, I think not!) But at age 34, he’s 2 years younger than Halladay who, coincidentally, had the season of the century two years ago. (granted, it’s been a short century so far since y2k…)

    No one is a sure thing, but I’d argue that Cliff Lee the closest thing to one on the pitching side, and I wouldn’t wait until 11th pitcher off the board to grab him this year. He’ll go around 5-7 on most boards I’d gather by March, as his “rebound year” talk is more than just quiet chatter among the fantasy community, and but for wins, he didn’t really have a bad year at all last year given how bad the Phillies were at generating runs for him (remember the 10 inning shutout he didn’t get a W for?)

    My take is these rankings will guarantee you have Greinke on every team and, all things considered, I’d much rather have Lee. And I’d be verrry wary of the other guys on the top 10 that are in their 20s and haven’t had their Tommy John or shoulder surgeries yet.

    Just my 2 cents. Great work as always, Grey!!!

      • Steve says:
        (link)

        @Grey: I think Hamels is the real stand-out amongst the pitchers in Point Shares…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          There’s so many pitchers in Point Shares, pitchers in general are the standout… Everywhere you look at the top there’s pitchers… Point Shares loves pitchers… Hamels is indeed really high…

          • Steve says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Oh – the PS love for pitchers is legend (emoticon). Yeah, it felt like Hamels might have found his level there for a bit – really, really good without being great. But PS has him in a spot where you normally find the great pitchers…

      • I want to dislike Lee more but, even last year, 8.8 K/9, 1.3 BB/9. That’s stellar. His ERA/WHIP were solid (3.16/1.11) and that’s with an inflated HR rate and BABIP (at least vs. previous years). I have injury concerns but they seem unfounded (5 straight years of 200+ IP). Now if only he gets some Win luck this year…

        • Steve says:
          (link)

          @Rudy Gamble: What’s your personal view on Hamels? As Grey and I were discussing above, he’s notable for his lofty position in PS this year…

        • birrrdy! says:
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          @Rudy Gamble: Yup, I’d be more wary of the pre-surgery young guns in the top 10 for injuries. This looks like Halladay 2010-11 all over again to me for Lee. They are very similar pitchers, with Lee as a lefty version of Halladay. 4 -seamer and 2-seamer fastballs that can hit low 90s, cutter, curve. Meticulous placement.

          My main concern for my NL-only are the chances that Lee might get traded to an AL team this year. Grey, Rudy, gallery…. thoughts on this?

        • Jay29 says:
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          @Rudy Gamble: Was there anything non-fluky to Lee’s bad Wins luck last year? What I mean is, is there a reason for Grey to project only 13 W for him and 16 for Hamels? I’d feel pretty confident projecting both guys at around 15-17 based on their ability to eat up innings and limit runs, even if the Phillie offense isn’t what it used to be (otherwise, I’d put them each around 17-19 Ws).

          • Steamer has Hamels at 15 Wins and Lee at 14 Wins. But I gave Hamels’ 31 GS vs. Lee 28 GS so Lee actually has a slightly higher W/GS ratio.

            In summary, about even for Wins.

  41. marti says:
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    Auction league, keeper league, I can keep 5, its an N/L only league

    The no brainers are
    1. Strasberg 18
    2. Goldschmidt 11
    3. Marte 6
    4. Rosario 6

    Would you keep gyorko for 6, gamel 11, bruce for 31, ruf for 6, juan francisco for 6, I can only keep 1 more.

    You can keep players as long as you like the value goes up by $5 each year

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Gyorko or Bruce, depends on when you have decide and Jedd’s starting job situation…

  42. Cabby says:
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    How much does Sale scare you this year? In a 2 catcher keeper league I’m down to Sale and Salvator Perez for my final keeper. I already have Hamels and Gallardo as keepers. Trade Sale for a first round pick(13 round after keepers). There are several good players available. I could likely get another minor leaguer thrown in. I have drafted some current keepers from the past I’m the first round and I really think Perez will develop as a top 5 catcher

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Trade Sale for a first round pick…

  43. Steve D says:
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    Mr. Grey, thanks for all the help. You are a gentleman and a scholar. Keeper help please. Im not going to bore you with my amazing earth shattering line-up. I need help on the last two. Revere, C Davis , Gomez, or tijuan walker kept as a major leaguer. Its a 12 team roto w a deep minor league . All are prayers but are dirt cheap amd could be great value if they blow up.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Davis and Gomez…

  44. Ryan says:
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    The SP debate, and my loaded keeper question to boot.

    I’ve kept Kershaw as my 4th round keeper two years now, along with Cano (1), Castro (14), and this year probably Lawrie at 23rd – we get 4 keepers.

    Question to you is after debating whether or not to sub Lawrie for Felix (2nd round), do you think Kershaw should get bumped as well? The other keeper subs would be Heyward (5), Goldschmidt (12) or Sale (22).

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Heyward over Kershaw… I’d go with Lawrie…

  45. BSW says:
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    Tootsie hole? I guess we are over the Internet friends so its cool.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I heart you.

  46. KO says:
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    You have Zimmerman higher than most and I agree. Prime candidate to bust out. Far too often people discount command and his ratio over 200 innings should really solidify your WHIP. I am less optimistic about Mad Max as his command and potential for injury would scare me off taking him too early. Many thought he would end up in the pen due to arm/shoulder issues and that might eventually end up the case inthe years ahead. He is not a beacon on consistency either.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I agree on both fronts… The insane K-rate for Scherzer has me optimistic… Lot easier to find a 7 IP, 3 ER, 3 Ks start on waivers than a Scherzer type K-rate…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      What a way for him to go out if that’s how he goes…

      • Steve says:
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        @Grey: And don’t let the door hit your ass on the way out.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          True… Or your hip, as the case may be…

  47. Hoosier daddy says:
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    Grey-

    Ortiz has 1b eligibility for my league – where would you place him amongst the crop?

    Thanks as always

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      He’s be just before Ike Davis…

  48. Jason says:
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    Which duo makes my keepers better?
    Current keepers are: Braun, longo, Cain, hamels
    Hanley & strasburg
    Heyward & strasburg
    Votto & wainwright

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Heyward, Strasburg

  49. Jon says:
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    One team in my league has Kershaw, Cain, Scherzer, Latos, Chapman and Sale all eligible to be kept, plus Halladay to boot. I’m sure hoping he can’t afford all of those guys, but yikes.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Crazy…

  50. The Fridge says:
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    Grey – Sky high on Scherzer, eh? I generally like to make him a June 15th acquisition but help me decide on where he ranks out of these potential keepers:

    Scherzer – $16
    Medlen – $13
    Sale – $5
    Niese – $4

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Scherzer, Niese, Medlen…

      • The Fridge says:
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        @Grey: So you favor a $13 Medlen, who you have at #25, over #20 Sale at $5….I’ll admit that I was just waiting for Sale to breakdown on me last year but do you think the risk really outweighs the reward of keeping him at $5?

        • The Fridge says:
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          @The Fridge: Or is Sale on the “do not draft” list?

  51. Jack Full of Hate says:
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    my new phone won let me post. I hate technology

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Gotta get another new phone…

      • Jack Full of Hate says:
        (link)

        @Grey: already crossed my mind. Im going to mess with it on someone else’s phone… I scrutinized a dozen phones before i made my choice.

  52. jack full of hate says:
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    Testing on my 2 1/2 year old phone

    • Jack Full of Hate says:
      (link)

      @jack full of hate: damn, what am i doing wrong
      ?

  53. Jack Full of Hate says:
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    Testing my new phone. Looks good. Posting not so easy

    • Jack Full of Hate says:
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      @Jack Full of Hate: now it works. Technology I hate you like the dh

  54. Jack Full of Hate says:
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    I should of tested all the phones on how well they work with razzball.

  55. Jack Full of Hate says:
    (link)

    Please work

  56. Jack Full of Hate says:
    (link)

    I need to rethink this purchase

  57. Jack Full of Hate says:
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    Test

    • Steve says:
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      @Jack Full of Hate: Receiving you loud and clear. I have no real trouble commenting from my phone. What phone you got?

      • Jack Full of Hate says:
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        @Steve: samsung S3

        • Steve says:
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          @Jack Full of Hate: Nice. That should be fine. I’m replying on an S2…

          • Jack Full of Hate says:
            (link)

            @Steve: you just need to hit the post comment button in just the right way, you know, the sweet spot.

            It was slower but my first generation droid was easier to use the razz

  58. Anthony says:
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    grey,

    as the master of fantasy pitching, me as the barely getting by streamer last year. i would like to have a decent staff this year, i like lee,gallardo,fister,estrada,mike fries,romo,street,wilhelmsen* and will target them at all costs on draft day. Honest opinion am I going a bit too heavy on pitching looking at the draft positions between potential bats.

    • Anthony says:
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      o@Anthony: 12 team h2h 5×5 format

  59. uke18 says:
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    Trying to determine which SP’s to keep for best value in a 6×6 (W,L,SV,K’s,ERA,WHIP) 12 team league. I give up the draft rd in parenthesis. I can keep all 3 or just 2.
    Wainright (7)
    Latos (10)
    Cueto (14)

  60. Nick says:
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    Not sure where you got the idea that Matt Moore didn’t have control problems in the minors. That was his biggest problem. Yes he got better every year, but starting in 2009 take a look at his BB/9. Shows a guy who had control problems, but has overcome them at every level. I think he will overcome them in the majors as well.

  61. DB says:
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    ANy concern that the non-moving parts of the Seattle OF plus shortened fences will impact King felix? Of course the D doesn’t much matter when you rack up the K, but it sure looks like a radically worse outfield defense. Maybe they can lure Pat Burrell out of retirement…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Nah, no concern…

  62. Garrsh says:
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    I know you really like Wainright and Upton both alot this year. I am in a keeper pool h2h 5×5 and got offered

    upton for wainright

    upton is $30 bucks on 2 year deal
    Wainright is $ 10 bucks on 2 year deal

    Please advise what you think I should do.

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      I’d want Justin Upton…

Comments are closed.