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So this is weird, but the top 20 shortstops for 2013 fantasy baseball are deeper than the top 20 2nd basemen for 2013 fantasy baseball.  Here, my new favorite BFF, Josh Rutledge, is ranked 10th.  On the 2nd basemen post he was ranked 8th.  The middle tiers for the shortstops goes on forever, then it falls off a cliff, ending with a Cliff. (Symmetry points!)  For those in leagues with a middle infidel, you have the answer to where you are drafting that slot from.  Up until last year, I usually gave shortstops the short end of the stick with my drafting.  I’d grab one late and that was that.  I still don’t see any way I’m drafting a top shortstop.  I honestly can’t remember the last time I drafted a 1st or 2nd round shortstop, and I play in about ten leagues per year.  I could see grabbing one or even two from the 4th ranked guy here until the 19th ranked guy, where I’ll probably only have one 2nd baseman.  Last year it was the opposite.  As with the other top 20 rankings, I point out where I think tiers start and stop and my projections.  All the 2013 fantasy baseball rankings can be found under that thing that says 2013 fantasy baseball rankings.  Unsuccinct!  Anyway, here’s the top 20 shortstops for 2013 fantasy baseball:

1. Troy Tulowitzki – This is the first tier.  This tier ends at Hanley.  I call this tier, “These guys could be a’ight, but I won’t own them because I’m drafting corner men or outfielders early.”  If you draft Tulowitzki, you’ll probably lose your league whether he stays healthy and produces or not.  The absolute best year I can expect from him is 30 homers, 12 steals and a .300 average.  Before you say he could do much better, he could, and aliens could land on Earth and make me ruler of the planet because they appreciate a good mustache.  I don’t expect that to happen, just as I don’t expect Tulo to match the best season of his career.  But let’s assume as the new ruler of the planet I can make Tulo have a good season because with my new position as ruler, I have telekinetic power and they call me The Rainmaker and when I use my TK the only thing I’m interested in is Tulo hitting well and not the implications of time travel.  But as ruler of the planet, I also technically own every fantasy team so the victory is all mine.  Now, if I’m not ruler of the planet and Tulo has to go it alone, he will miss at least twenty games and disappoint yet again.  2013 Projections:  83/25/98/.288/7

2. Jose Reyes – I already went over my Jose Reyes 2013 fantasy.  I wrote it in while dusting inside my bubble.  2013 Projections:  110/12/60/.285/40

3. Starlin Castro – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Rutledge.  I call this tier, “Shortstops that better not come up short.  Hey, that came up short of clever!”  Starlin’s on the precipice (Word of the Day!) of being a top 20 overall player.  He could also take the smallest of steps backwards and be nothing but a top ten shortstop (which isn’t terrific).  That’s the problem with shortstops, in general, and what I meant by the tier name.  There’s very little room for error, which still doesn’t help the value of defensive wiz, Brendan Ryan.  Castro’s undeniably a middle of the order hitter, which will mean counting stats.  On the flip side, it’s the Cubs order.  He’s young.  On the flip side, as we saw last year with Justin Upton, young doesn’t always mean a step forward.  He has 20-homer power and 30-steal speed.  On the flip side, he can’t steal with speed alone.  His caught stealing rate is egregious, with 13 times caught last year in 38 attempts.  His power will peak at 20, but that also means he could hit 12 homers.  A 12-homer, 20-steal guy isn’t great.  A 20-homer, 30-steal guy is.  As it reads on the door of a prudish brothel, therein lies the rub.  2013 Projections:  92/16/83/.310/25

4. Ben Zobrist – His projections are at the top 20 2nd basemen for 2013 fantasy baseball.

5. Jimmy Rollins – I don’t want to rank based on gut, but (nut, strut, putt, what?) if I were I would’ve dropped Rollins a few spots lower.  I’m worried the oldie-once-was-goodie viral infection that has recently spread to Ryan Howard and Utley is due to catch up to Rollins.  Call me cray-cray, but a 34-year-old that I’m relying on for 25-ish steals to get his value worries me.  Also, if Rollins’s strikeout rate nudges up a tad, he might be lucky to break .300 OBP.  When he was 29, that shizz was cute.  Now, not so much.  2013 Projections:  88/19/61/.248/24

6. Ian Desmond – In 2009, Ian Desmond hit the second longest homer for the Nationals behind only Adam Dunn.  That trivia has stuck with me because it means Desmond isn’t a 12-homer guy masquerading as a 20-homer hitter.  Besides that being one of the worst costumes ever  — are you at a masquerade ball dressed as J.J. Hardy? — it gives a baseline for power.  Of course, I’m not ignoring his 2011 and 2010, but his power in 2012 is actually closer to what we should expect.  I do fully expect everything else in his stat line to come down.  “Kick it down a notch!” says Opposite Emeril.  2013 Projections:  68/20/77/.264/18

7. Elvis Andrus – In the past, if Josh Hamilton had a bad season, it meant a solid steal season from Andrus.  Well, we don’t have to worry about that Hamilton guy anymore adding so much offense that it was encroaching on others.  The nerve!  Or noive, if you’re reading this in a Curly Howard voice.  Andrus has been consistent across the five fantasy categories, except steals, which makes him exceedingly frustrating because that’s what we rely on from him.  Tell me something I don’t know!  Sorry, Random Italicized Voice, how about only Reyes and Jeter have scored more runs than Andrus in the last three years?  Oh, my last comment was a figure of speech, I didn’t need to know anything else.  2013 Projections:  91/5/60/.285/35

8. Danny Espinosa – His projections are at the top 20 2nd basemen for 2013 fantasy baseball.

9. Josh Rutledge – His projections are at the top 20 2nd basemen for 2013 fantasy baseball.

10. Asdrubal Cabrera – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Jeter.  I call this tier, “I’ll take one of these guys, but by design they’re lower than others have them.”  Asdrubal’s a hair better than Prado.  I can’t make heads or tails on whether that’s a compliment.  If Asdrubal sticks as the three hole hitter as he did last year, he’ll be the next-to-worst three hole hitter after whoever the Astros pin the tail on.  To rephrase all of that in a more confusing manner, the hair on Asdrubal is trying to pin the tail onto a compliment.  2013 Projections: 77/17/86/.272/14

11. Martin Prado – His projections are at the top 20 2nd basemen for 2013 fantasy baseball.

12. Erick Aybar – All systems are a go for Aybar to have his career year.  In the Angels lineup, he’s sitting in the two hole, which is coincidentally in front of Pujols.  That’s right behind Trout.  Also in front of Hamilton.  That’s sitting between beauty and fantasy beasts.  That’s as of right now.  That’s a big “as of right now.”  That “as of right now” needs to buy two tickets to fly on a domestic airline.  The Sciosciapath could move Aybar to the eight hole on April 20th, win a game and decide to leave Aybar in the eight hole for the rest of the year.  2013 Projections:  92/9/62/.292/24

13. Derek Jeter – He was in a walking boot as of a few weeks ago.  No report on whether that was because he was locked in a cabin with A-Rod, who was unhappy with Jeter’s memoirs, and screaming “Dirty birdy!”  Everyone seems to think Jeter will be ready for Opening Day.  I think it’s a strike against him already that we’re in January talking about whether or not Jeter will be ready for Opening Day.  Then, Girardi said there’s some concern over whether or not Jeter will be ready.  He said it with a long face, but that’s more because he didn’t want anyone making fun of his braces.  I expect we’ll get 130 games from Jeter.  2013 Projections: 81/11/55/.288/10

14. Alcides Escobar – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Andrelton.  I call this tier, “Piqued or peaked?”  Which also sounds like a Japanese game show.  Five Japanese businessmen sit in a circle and contestants have to guess which one of the businessmen has terrible indigestion and which one is just curious how he ended up on a game show.  This tier has guys that have my interest, but we might have seen the best already from some of them.  Last year, Alcides gave 5 homers, 35 steals and a .293 average.  Everything there looks to be the peak, except the steals.  In 2011, Alcides had a .285 BABIP and hit .254.  A high BABIP shouldn’t be ruled out with Alcides’s speed, but his .344 BABIP from last year looks to be on the high side.  2013 Projections:  81/4/55/.278/33

15. Hanley Ramirez – I’m done with Hanley until we see a return to his previous glory.  As my saying goes, Hanley is coasting on good vibes and bad farts.  He looked like a surefire Hall of Famer his first five years in the league, but now he’s passing off a Skor bar in a photoshopped Heath Bar wrapper.  Who even goes through the trouble of photoshopping a Heath Bar wrapper?  Hanley does, that’s who!  He’s devious trying to appeal to you.  The Straight Dope Message Boards are saying Hanley retired two years ago and he’s been putting a uniform and glove on top of a Roomba.  I think that’s stretching the truth.  A Roomba would play better defense.  Anecdotal evidence aside, last year Hanley’s K-rate shot up to his career high, his walk rate dropped.  He went from a .400 OBP guy to a .330 OBP guy.  He is no longer a .320 average hitter.  The biggest difference in his peripherals is he hit 30.5% of pitches outside the strike zone last year.  That’s a huge difference from his career 24.4%.  That tells me A) He’s not waiting for his pitches because he doesn’t care.  B) The contact he’s making isn’t as good as the contact he used to make, so he’s hitting dribblers to 2nd base and lazy fly balls.  C) There’s no C.  He’s a 20/20, .260 hitter.  There’s a place for that but it’s not where he’s probably being drafted. The Dodgers have epic collapse written all over them before they even take the field.  Kershaw, Billingsley, Crawford and Kemp’s injuries, then Hanley, A-Gon, Ethier and Beckett… It’s all too convenient.  And don’t tell me the lineup is going to be great, and Hanley will be a benefactor of that.  I tell you to look at the 2012 Marlins.  UPDATE:  Since first ranking him, the news hasn’t gotten better.  Worse, I say.  And I say like Yoda.  Here’s a Hanley injury post.  2013 Projections:  69/17/79/.253/14

16. Jean Segura – I already went over my Jean Segura 2013 fantasy.  I wrote it while on a Subway train trying to not make eye contact with anyone.  2013 Projections:  75/5/50/.282/32

17. Everth Cabrera – There’s a fantasy movement currently sweeping through the ‘pert halls of the College of Fantasy Baseball at Charleston.  It doesn’t have the same backing as “don’t pay for saves” or my personal favorite “Josh Rutledge as fantasy sleeper” but it’s picking up steam.  It’s far from pithy (as you can already see), but it goes something like this:  platoon Everth and Forsythe and make Gyorko the 2nd baseman.  ‘Perts are still trying to come up with a catchy rallying cry — Blahtoon for Jerko?  I wouldn’t be too concerned yet about Everth’s playing time, but keep your ear to the ground.  Not literally.  Your ear is now filthy.  You kiss your mother with that ear? 2013 Projections: 45/1/22/.240/35

18. Zack Cozart – If I didn’t write, like, six sleeper posts about Cozart last year, I might’ve wrote one about him this year.  You didn’t know I wrote all of those sleeper posts about him last year?  Were you living under a rock?  When someone throws a rock onto your street, does it confuse the mailman which rock to deliver your mail to?  Do you ever get mail addressed to The Rock?  Do you ever come home and there’s a family of bunnies living under your home?  Well, I still might still write another sleeper post for Cozart this year.  Not just for those living under a rock.  2013 Projections:  72/17/81/.255/10

19. Andrelton Simmons – His name sounds like a Star Wars nerd won a bet and got to impregnate a woman and name the child after his favorite sci-fi planet.  “I want to name our child, Andrelton, and touch your boobies.  Not in that order.”  Bill James’s 2013 projections for Andrelton are 70/10/62/.289/18.  That’s the kind of projections that are gonna make Chris Davis jealous.  “Bill, you said it would be me and you.  Forever.”  Since Andrelton hasn’t hit ten homers total in his three years of professional baseball combined, I think that power might be a tad optimistic.  Even though he only stole one base in 49 games last year, there’s a chance for more speed.  He’s nowhere near proficient in stealing, though.  In his best steals season in the minors, he stole 26 and was caught 18 times.  Not great, over-the-internet friend.  2013 Projections: 56/5/67/.272/15

20. Jed Lowrie – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Pennington.  I call this tier, “Here’s hoping you have your shortstop and middle infield slots filled by this point.”  Jed’ll be 29 years old in April and his career to this point looks like that of a journeyman.  Piecemeal seasons over the last four years.  Only he hasn’t been a utility fielder, scrapping for playing time.  He gets an everyday job looks like money, then gets a boo boo and misses the rest of the season.  From now on, Jed, you’re Money…Boo Boo.  Sky also wrote a Jed Lowrie sleeper post.  Nothing changes with his trade to Oakland.  He’ll now be a super-utility man with Nakajima being the A’s shortstop.  I’m unexcited (you failed me thesaurus!).  2013 Projections:  52/17/62/.254/2

21. Dee Gordon – Looking for a guy that won’t be drafted in most mixed leagues that could have top ten value for shortstops by the end of the season?  Here ya go!  Looking for a guy that really needs a trade to find the necessary at-bats to get any fantasy value?  Here ya go again, to walk along the lonely street of dreams of Dee Gordon’s steals.  UPDATE:  Hanley’s out, giddy up!  2013 Projections: 47/1/25/.245/33

22. J.J. Hardy – The biggest mystery was how the Orioles succeeded last year with the bulk of the two-hole at-bats going to Jimmy Juniper Hardy.  Hardy even tried to solve that mystery by putting up a .282 OBP.  I have to believe someone in the Orioles organization will come to their senses and move Hardy down in the batting order.  Jimmy Juniper is a six to seven hole hitter, and not a great one at that.  2013 Projections:  68/20/79/.244

23. Marco Scutaro – His projections are at the top 20 2nd basemen for 2013 fantasy baseball.

24. Alexei Ramirez – If you take his best power year (21 homers in 2008) and his best steals year (20 last year) and put them together, you have a guy that was good five years ago and degrees of yawnstipating since.  Last year, he had the worst walk rate (2.6%) for any player who qualified for the batting title since 2009, or more like “who qualified for the batting title, but obviously came nowhere close to winning it.”  That was the worst walk rate with 620+ plate appearances since Luis Guzman’s brother, Cristian in 2002.  Any time you’re being compared to Cristian Guzman –> Good times!  2013 Projections:  66/12/70/.259/12

25. Stephen Drew – When he signed with the Sawx, here’s what I said, “In 2009, Drew was coming off a season of 21 homers and a .291 average and looked primed for a breakout.  In 2010, he was coming off a disappointing season of 12 homers.  In 2011, he was coming off his 2nd consecutive season disappointing season.  In 2012, he was coming — what his third straight terrible season?  I don’t know; I lost track.  In 2013, where are we with Drew?  Fourth terrible season in a row?  Fifth?  I can’t count any higher.  Can we just get the Sawx to start Ciriaco so we don’t have to count so high?”  And that’s me quoting me!  2013 Projections:  42/15/55/.262/2

26. Yunel Escobar – When he was traded to the Rays, I said, “He’s a 10-homer, very little speed MI.  Like RuPaul, Yunel’s more known for his antics and makeup choices.” And that’s me quoting me again!  2013 Projections: 78/8/57/.261/5

27. Jhonny Peralta – One day we’ll look back at his 21-homer, .299 average 2011 season and see how it was far and away his best season.  That’s assuming the apocalypse hits and leaves just you, me and Jhonny Peralta, and we have nothing to do with ourselves except reminiscing on Jhonny’s best year.  2013 Projections: 56/15/70/.245/1

28. Rafael Furcal – UPDATE:  Out for the season. I saw an article at Fangraphs titled, “Is this the end for Furcal?”  I didn’t read the article beyond the title and sometimes they’re talking real baseball-wise with WAR, fielding and other things that don’t pertain to us, but, with all due respect, Furcal’s been done since May of 2008.  Right now, Furcal is questionable for Opening Day.  It’ll depend on whether or not The Liberation Army of Pete Kozma successfully plots out its take-over mission.  My guess is that like many armies fueled by small sample sizes they will be unsuccessful.  2013 Projections:  60/6/42/.259/10

29. Ruben Tejada – Last year in 464 ABs and 338 leadoff ABs, he had a line of 53/1/25/.289/4.  I’m still waiting to hear someone found another player that had fewer runs with that many leadoff ABs and a .285-plus average.  C’mon, guys and four girls, there’s gotta be some insane record that no one would want that Tejada now owns.  2013 Projections:  73/2/34/.282/6

30. Brandon Crawford – He sounds like what Tim McCarver would accidentally call Carl Crawford, and that would be the highlight of his career.  2013 Projections:  49/5/54/.245/5

31. Cliff Pennington – His projections are at the top 20 2nd basemen for 2013 fantasy baseball.

After the top 30 there’s a lot of names, but here’s a few that stand out:

Jurickson Profar – I already went over my Jurickson Profar 2013 fantasy.  I wrote the entire post without any verbs.  2013 Projections: 30/5/20/.290/10 in 200 ABs

Pedro Ciriaco – One of the worst moves of the offseason was the Red Sox going out and getting Stephen Drew.  That is such a new Red Sox management move.  John Lackey, Dempster and Jonny Gomes are all nodding somewhere.  I wonder if when Gomes was signed by the Red Sox even he was like, “Wow, about five years ago the Red Sox would never sign someone like me.  Bummer.  On so many levels.”  Does Gomes have that kind of self-reflection?  Is his inner monologue such a downer for him?  Why are we talking about Jonny Effin’ Gomes?  Ciriaco could’ve had an Elvis Andrus-type year with an everyday job.  Now he has to wait for an injury… Oh, wait, he’s behind Stephen Drew.  2013 Projections:  41/3/23/.275/20

Adeiny Hechavarria – I almost wrote an Adeiny fantasy rookie outlook post, but I decided against it because I was challenged to find 400 words to say about him.  I mean, I could’ve BS’d for the first 200 words like I’m wont to do, then focused on him for the final 200 words, but 200 words seemed a lot for him.  Shoot, right now 61 words seems tough.  Adeiny could hit .220 with ten steals and twelve caught stealings.  Unless your league has a category for Web Gems, I wouldn’t expect much.  2013 Projections:  59/4/42/.242/7

Hiroyuki Nakajima – Here’s what I said when he signed with the A’s, “Signed with the A’s to be their shortstop.  I have one name for you:  Tsuyoshi Nishioka.  I’ll give you another name:  Abu Nazir.  What the eff happened to Homeland?  I’m by no means an expert on cable dramas.  Shoot, I just watched Breaking Bad, about four years after everyone else, but has any show taken a quicker nose dive than Homeland?  SPOILER ALERT (Though I’m saving you from watching it):  Nazir’s big plan is to come to the states, secretly kill the VP then get killed so hopefully Brody will go to the VP’s funeral?  Convoluted Plot, “Hello, have you missed me?”  And what if Brody didn’t go to the funeral because, I don’t know, he was in the room when the VP died and basically killed him?  Maybe someone might have detained him about this since he was considered, I don’t know, a terrorist.  Then Carrie tells him to go to Canada?  I understand Canadians may get news a day later due to carrier pigeons struggling to fly north, but this is where you send someone who is probably the most infamous person in the world?  Maybe he can grow a beard and wear a lumberjack flannel.  No one will ever find him then, he’ll blend right in with all Canadian women!  Ugh, what a mess they made of a solid show.  Hiroyuki looks like he has some light power and speed, which translates to barely usable in Oaktownco.  I’d let someone else give him a whirl.”  And that’s me quoting me!  2013 Projections:  65/7/72/.272/12

From Around The Web

  1. Awesomus Maximus

    Awesomus Maximus says:
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    See you caught Looper, eh? It might be the first time travel themed movie I’ve ever seen which makes zero attempt to explain or even have the design of said time travel make any sense whatsoever. Still… I kinda’ sorta’ liked it.

    • Kaiser Soze says:
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      @Awesomus Maximus: Oh! So being able to lift things in the air with your TK powers makes you king of the future world. Surprised they didn’t have Sissy Spacek as the mom….

    • El Famous Burrito says:
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      In the future, people will put on fake mustaches to look like Grey Albright.

      Also, they will wear makeups and fake noses to attempt to look like a young Grey Albright, but fail miserably, looking neither like themselves nor Grey, but a weird third face that resembles no one.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        @El Famous Burrito: Hahaha… It was a little odd to see Jo-Go pretending to be Willis…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Awesomus Maximus: I liked it a lot, and because they didn’t try to explain it, I thought it worked because I didn’t find myself actively thinking about it…

      • Awesomus Maximus

        Awesomus Maximus says:
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        @Grey: Yeah, exactly. It wasn’t until a second viewing that I realized there was nothing done as far as the time travel methodology. It was like the exact opposite of Primer in hat regard.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, speaking of which, Cougar’s in Sundance and she just saw the Primer’s guy newest… Equally confusing, which means I might like it again…

          • Awesomus Maximus

            Awesomus Maximus says:
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            @Grey: Upstream Color? Really looking forward to that one.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              Better than downstream color…

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                Oh, and, yeah, that’s the one…

  2. Steve says:
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    Not a dig at you, Grey – your work is excellent as always – but I can’t believe we have to wade through middle infielders before we get to outfielders and pitchers.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Steve: Thanks! Think how anti-climatic it would be if we went the other way…

      • costaricanchata says:
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        @Grey:

        anti-climatic ?

        hope that’s not a word that your cougar taught you .

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I’m the anti-climax.

    • Ned Shakeshaft says:
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      @Steve:

      While we’re at it, my torrents aren’t downloading fast enough. SEEEEEEED!!!!!

  3. Wallpaper Paterson says:
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    Re: Tejada

    How about total number of triples, HR, and steals is under 15 for a guy with at least 400 at-bats in a season? I wonder who holds that dubious record. Tejada could try to “top” it.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Wallpaper Paterson: Yeah, he put together a special type of year last year that I think went widely unnoticed… Then again, it’s not like I’m Googling Ruben Tejada to see who’s talking about him…

  4. Snake Hips says:
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    Your Profar 2013 fantasy post has me all hot and bothered about him now. When should I go after him in my keeper draft? It’s a 10 teamer and we only keep 5 each year…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Snake Hips: BTW, excellent facial accoutrement…

      • Snake Hips says:
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        Thanks!

  5. Obmij76 says:
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    Great job on the rankings@Grey: Trade question. 12 Team H2H – Long Term Keeper League(8 keepers per team)
    BA, R, AVG, SB, BB, HR, RBI, TB
    ERA, WHIP, K, QS, IP, K, SV, L — Min. 40 IP
    Was offered Jered Weaver, Jay Bruce, 24th rd pick for Bryce Harper and a 5th rd pick

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Obmij76: No problem…Hold Harper…

  6. Kevin says:
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    You are drastically overestimating Pedro Ciriaco. I don’t know if it’s because you’re looking at it from a fantasy standpoint or what, but the guy had a .315 obp last year even with a .352 babip. He almost never walks and his defense at ss is subpar at best. At least at one point in his career drew was an average mlb ss, ciriaco will never be that.

    • EDUB says:
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      @Kevin:
      I would also think Bogaerts would get a long look if Drew were happen to go down, no?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Kevin: Maybe, I guess… But he’s not even ranked out of 30 shortstops…

      • Kevin says:
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        @Grey: Yes, but “elvis andrus type year with an everyday job” makes it sound like you think he could be a top 10 ss if only he got the playing time.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yup, but he has no direct line to a job, so unless the Rangers do something drastic (which would make no sense) he’s not getting a job until midseason at the earliest, next year at the latest…

  7. Derrick says:
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    Long time reader first time poster,

    Love your stuff grey and need some advice. 5 player keeper league, 12 team H2H. Pretty standard Cats.
    Keeping Braun, Kemp, Upton, Goldschmidt.and ?
    D. Jennings, Ian Desmond, Tex.

    Gave up alot to get Jennings last year and got rewarded with a year long kick in the balls. What do you guys think.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Derrick: Thanks for the kind words! Go with Jennings…

  8. David says:
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    Seems like you hate all shortstops this year. Who would get the biggest jump in the rankings with OBP as a catigorie? Also I’m in a keeper league and was offered Jose Bautista and Zobrist for Shin Soo Choo and Jason Kipnes thoughts?

    • OaktownSteve says:
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      @David:

      Funny, he goes on about how deep the position is but there’s not a ton of love in the comments. SS this year maybe like that old joke about a favorite New York deli: “The food’s lousy but the portions are great!”

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @David: Jeter would go up a bit… I’d take Bautista…

  9. Random Collmenter says:
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    I Ain’t Sayin’ Paul’s a Goldschmidt-a!

    Whoops, wrong post.

  10. EDUB says:
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    Grey, when you go into a draft/auction do you aim to fill certain positions with certain types of stats or just simply best available? In the past I used to always try to land a base stealer at SS which meant i was reaching for Reyes, Rollins, Andrus etc in drafts. This year I have Escobar, Segura, and ECab a lot higher than most and it gives me pause to rank them that high. The other players at the position who dont steal seem to give underwhelming counting stats so I’m wary if draft speed at in my OF my countables are weak due to lackluster MI’s.
    In a shallow league with 3OF and no MI or CI, do you agree that SS (in additon to 2b) should be where you look to have speed if you arent fortunate enough for a Trout, Braun, Kemp early pick?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @EDUB: You gotta fill in your team to make sense within your team… With that said, there’s very few MIs giving power so I usually end up with speed at the MI slot…

  11. Slam says:
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    270 in my budget, league has ss 2b and MI, counts slugging, would you keep Reyes for 33?

  12. New Guy says:
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    Grey,

    What are your thoughts on the effect that McGwire will have on Hanley? I read an article a while back saying the first conversation the two had began with Hanley saying something like, “so I hear you’re pretty good?”

    I’m not sure if this means Hanley will be respecting Big Mac’s suggestions/instruction. I just thought I’d throw it out there.

    I’m curious to hear what others have to say.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @New Guy: I don’t think McGwire will have any change on Hanley, he’s gotta want to change himself…

  13. SanFran1966 says:
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    In general, what rounds would you target a SS?

    More specific, I like Marlin early and Rutledge late.

    What round would select these two guys?

    • SanFran1966 says:
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      @SanFran1966:

      edit – Starlin Castro & Rutledge…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @SanFran1966: You mean, Starlin? I don’t draft early SSs… Starlin’s around a 4th rounder in 12 team leagues… Rutledge is around 120th overall…

  14. OaktownSteve says:
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    I think Reyes is prime for a really good year. That carpet up there in Rodgers Center is a really fast track. I don’t think he’ll steal 60+, but playing AL ball in a good park, good line up I could see him putting up some really good counters and challenging for a batting title. Plus he’s going to be a guy that will probably be going around the 1-2 turn, so if nobody in the league overdrafts him and you’re some where at the back quarter you may get a chance to pair him with like Fielder or Stanton and have a sweet 1-2 out of the gate.

    I love Zobrist at SS. His numbers say he’s playing right to his talent level and everything should be sustainable. Unfortunately these days he seems popular with drafters. Have to pay fair market or even a little premium.

    Asdrubal seems like the kind of guy I end up with in the middle of drafts a lot. Shouldn’t hurt you anywhere. Reliable.

    • centerfieldballhawk says:
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      @OaktownSteve: Reyes seems to be more of a three category player. While he would pair well with Fielder or Stanton, I wouldn’t pay for a 2008 stat line.

      • OaktownSteve says:
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        @centerfieldballhawk:

        I’m not paying for 2008; I am projecting a very good 2012. I think he has a chance to be really good in BA, runs, and right around those 40 steals. WIth the change in league and ballpark I could see 15 hrs and close to 70 rbis. Toronto is just a really good park to hit in. In which to hit. Whatever.

        It’s one thing to say a guy is “only” a three category guy, but how many guys are going to be near the league lead in all 5? Or even have that potential. A couple at most. If you get a guy who can be top 5 in the league in his three categories, above his peers at the other two and who plays SS, I’m very interested.

        • centerfieldballhawk says:
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          @OaktownSteve: I agree with your projections and can also see Reyes having a strong year. Royce hit it on the head… if you could compliment Reyes with a strong OF / 1B and land him at the 2/3 turn you’ve got something.

        • costaricanchata says:
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          @OaktownSteve:

          reyes will .400 this year …. in april .
          (and then will prolly elect to sit out the rest of the season) .

          cust .

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Ha… Prolly… Or more likely, he’ll bunt with two outs in a 9-1 game at the end of September so he gets a .300 average…

            • beardcrabs says:
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              @Grey: i noticed you tend to hold grudges/ and are very consistent…

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                @beardcrabs: Yeah, but I don’t let it change my rankings… I’m fine with Hosmer this year if I can get him later…

              • costaricanchata says:
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                @beardcrabs:

                that kiwi guy is helping him “work” on things

                • Ryan says:
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                  Looking at Reyes’ splits over the last three years, his playing time on turf has been extremely limited, but he is batting much lower (.217) and has zero stolen bases. Again, the sample size is 23 ABs. Is there any concern with his lack of experience playing on turf or the possibility of injury while on a new playing surface? I have him at 95/9/45/.290/36 because of this. Too low?

    • royce! says:
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      @OaktownSteve: Based on MDC’s ADP (30) and ESPN’s early 2013 ranking (39), you should be able to get Reyes in the second or third round, though obviously these things tend to shift around as we get closer to actual drafts. That said, I like Reyes a lot too, especially if I could get him in the third round, pairing him with an OF and 1B.

      • OaktownSteve says:
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        @royce!:

        I think in strong leagues you won’t see him fall that far. Something is effed up about MDC right now. No belief in those numbers. He went 17th in the Fangraphs ridiculously early mock. I think that’s how he’ll slot.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @OaktownSteve: I like Reyes too… I probably won’t own him, but I like him… I almost put him in the top 20 overall, but I felt like that was lying to myself since I wouldn’t draft him there…. Asdrubal seems like he’s just an okay hitter in a great spot to succeed for counting stats (middle of the order; no real competition unless Carlos Santana breaks out, but then Asdrubal would just move to the 2 hole)….

      • costaricanchata says:
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        @Grey:

        pun point !

  15. doghat666 says:
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    12 team 5×5: C, 1B, 2B, SS, 3B, UI, 4 OF, DH, 5SP, P, 3RP, 12 player bench, limited free agent claims. Keep 15, draft 17. Which 15 keepers do you prefer, Team A, B, or C?
    Team A
    1B Votto
    UI Goldshmidt
    DH Fielder
    2B Hill
    SS A Escobar
    3B Headley
    OF Reddick
    SP Strasburg
    SP C Lee
    SP Darvish
    SP Samardzija
    RP Nathan
    RP Putz
    RP Cishek
    RP Cashner

    Team B
    Subtract: C Lee and Putz
    Add: Kinsler and Niese

    Team C
    Subtract: Putz, Nathan, Cishek
    Add: BJ Upton, Niese, Straily

    Obviously, salaries limit the ways I can put the rosters together. My gut says keep Team C but I wouldn’t be surprised if Team A had the highest net player values.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      B

  16. alex says:
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    Grey which group of keepers do you like better? (standard 5×5 “keep your 5 best” league with CI and MI and 5 OF)

    M Cabrera, Posey, Wright, Castro, Cliff Lee
    M Cabrera, Posey, Cano, A Jackson, Cliff Lee

    contemplating a castro + wright for Cano deal…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      First group…

  17. Peter says:
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    Are you concerned Rutledge never played above AA ball until last year?

    Different topic, who do you think has more upside in 2013–Santana, Wieters or Posey (in 5×5).

    Thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’m not concerned for where I’ll be drafting Rutledge… Wieters…

  18. USA – Japan relations will never be the same after this one, Mr Gray…. You have been a perfect combo of Sensei, John “No Mercy” Keese in The Karate Kid / Okinawa’s head bully Sato in The Karate Kid Part 2 / and the maybe worse of all, Colonel Dugan in The Next Karate Kid Part 4 here (that last one should have won a number of Oscars that year – an Academy ripoff IMO) …

    Note*** Terry Silver of The Karate Kid Part 3 ( Keese’s Nam war buddy and the Cobra Kai dojo owner) is just not you… He’s just too slimy and polished …

    Poor Nakajima… Hope, Hiroyuki-san comes to the tournament and beats the crap out of rest of the guys up you listed above him…

    You are right in advising others to avoid the group early… Good job…

    Again, this group is aligned to perfection for Mr. Miyagi’s plug-in plug-off switchboard approach to Yahoo play..

    A little birdie keeps whispering Drew in my ear..

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I can be slimy AND polished… I just need the opportunity to show my stuff… Thanks! That little birdie is J.D. Drew, he’s got some free time…

  19. bossmanjunior says:
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    Grey,

    How much weight do you put in early adp results at MDC right now? Is it too early or is the sample size too small (not as many mocks yet)? I was checking it out last night and some of the adps seen a little out of wack. Here are the SS adps:

    Tulo 17
    Reyes 30
    Castro 31
    Hanley 42
    Desmond 91
    Andrus 101
    Rollins 114
    Jeter 121
    Asdrubal 129
    Alcides 164
    Aybar 210
    Hamilton 220
    Alexi 221
    Rutledge 226
    Segura 252

    I know Desmond will regress a little, but you have to like him in that spot. There is no way Andrus and Rollins go that late. Of course, your boy Rutledge and Segura look like great late round picks. I think I’m drafting Salvador Perez and Josh Rutledge on every team. What thinks you?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I want Perez and Rutledge on every team, but I don’t put much weight into these rankings… Desmond through Asdrubal just seem silly that late…

      • bossmanjunior says:
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        @Grey:

        Agreed. They have Longoria going 41st on average, that’s nuts.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, completely bonkers…

  20. Stooler says:
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    In my league trading happens often enough. Pitchers value is high in season. I’m starting to think about C, SS and 2b late (focus on SBs) while taking SPs and RPs in rounds 7-15. Then, when one of those positions doesn’t pan out, make a trade and move on.
    I just can’t see who, other than Rutledge or (Lowrie late) I’d feel good about (in my league tulo and Desmond are kept and Reyes will be the first one of the board.)
    Is this crazy thinking or crazy like a fox thinking?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      No, not crazy thinking… I’ll probably go for a 2B a bit earlier than Rutledge then slide him in late at SS…

  21. jimbo says:
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    I’m probably drafting from the turn. 12 team league.

    IF i trust Desmond (‘i like what i see from him’ trust) is the first pick of round 4 too reach-y? 20-20 at ss isn’t bad and I’ll have three other non-mi already rostered.

    I doubt he’d be around at the end of the fifth, but other owners reaching shouldn’t force me to do the same. i might just have to accept i won’t have him on my team in one after twelve after twenty.

    I admit i felt similarly after asdrubal’s breakout, thus the second guessing.

  22. Schwab says:
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    Hey Grey,
    8 team H2H keeper point league. Would you trade Hosmer/Reyes for Rizzo/Castro? Or is it to close to call?
    Thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I would…

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