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I’m gonna turn the top 20 outfielders for 2014 fantasy baseball to 100, because I love you as much as someone who has never met someone else can love someone.  I did get mad when you did that thing that I don’t know about because I don’t know you.  It wasn’t cool.  But forgive and forget, as my Grandpa Joe says, even if he never forgave our neighbor for stealing his street cleaning parking spot twenty years ago, so there’s that.  Now, it’s only fair I turn the outfielders up to 100, since I’ve turned the top 20 catchers for 2014 fantasy baseball to 28 and the top 20 1st basemen for 2014 fantasy baseball to 45 and the top 20 2nd basemen for 2014 fantasy baseball to 36; the top 20 shortstops for 2014 fantasy baseball to 38 and the top 20 3rd basemen for 2014 fantasy baseball to 36.  All the 2014 fantasy baseball rankings are there.  As always, my tiers and projections are included.  If you’re worried about trusting a man that obviously is more concerned with his facial hair, here’s a review of my rankings from last year.  Bam!  Anyway, here’s the top 20 outfielders for 2014 fantasy baseball:

1. Mike Trout – Went over him in the top 10 for 2014 fantasy baseball.

2. Andrew McCutchen – Went over him in the top 10 for 2014 fantasy baseball.

3. Adam Jones – Went over him in the top 10 for 2014 fantasy baseball.

4. Carlos Gonzalez – Went over him in the top 10 for 2014 fantasy baseball.

5. Bryce Harper – Went over him in the top 10 for 2014 fantasy baseball.

6. Jose Bautista – Went over him in the top 20 for 2014 fantasy baseball.

7. Ryan Braun – Went over him in the top 20 for 2014 fantasy baseball.

8. Yasiel Puig – Went over him in the top 20 for 2014 fantasy baseball.

9. Jay Bruce – Went over him in the top 20 for 2014 fantasy baseball.

10. Giancarlo Stanton – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Gomez.  I call this tier, “Don’t ruin your draft.”  What I mean by this tier name is you must have at least one outfielder drafted by the end of this tier, preferably two.  If you don’t have an outfielder by the end of this top 18, you’re up Shizz Creek and you’re entering the address into Waze and it’s coming back with “Cannot Find Location.”  I can’t help myself when I think of Giancarlo’s biceps and quads and dark complexion.  He’s like a buff Benjamin Bratt.  Or a muscly George Hamilton.  How can anyone resist that?  He can also hit 45 homers without killing you in average.  Last year was a lost year, which is terrific if you’re saving keystrokes, but isn’t what you wanted obviously.  Or obvi if a teenager is reading.  He was injured early on and even when he returned his lineup was still sick, but not sick as in good but sick as in ill and not ill as in good but ill as in ‘I want to puke; I really need to stop eating only Carl’s Jr.’  He’s still only 24 years old, but surrounded by an ugly lineup.  You can’t rely on runs and RBIs.  Just have to hope he hits 40 homers and Adeiny Hesaveryterrible gets on base.  2014 Projections:  79/36/89/.264/4

11. Justin Upton – Last year was a tale of two seasons.  One season where he dazzled your retinas and another season where it looked like he was filming a sequel to Faces of Death.  In the end, his numbers were 27 homers, 8 steals and a .263 average.  Right now, his fly ball rate is at 39.5% for his career.  Last year, it was 37.8%, which came out to 151 fly balls.  If he had hit homers per fly balls at his usual rate of 14%, he would’ve had around 22 homers.  That’s not great.  Love to see his fly ball rate get over 40%.  Last year, he had 400 batted balls.  If he had nine more fly balls, he would’ve had a 40% fly ball rate.  So, we’re not talking a huge difference.  He’s no guarantee for 25 homers, but it’s well within the margin of error.  His average last year was .263.  That looks a lot closer to reality than I’d like.  His BABIP last year was .321.  Maybe that bumps up to .332, his career average, but with his escalating K-rate, I wouldn’t count on it.  His steals have also dipped all the way down to 8 from a high of 21 in 2011.  As we saw with Pence last year, it’s impossible to say if a 15-steal guy is going to steal 20+ bases or less than 10.  Just have to hope for 12-ish.  So, why is he ranked this high if it’s all negatives?  Good question, Random Razzball Commenter.  He’s never had a season where he’s been hideous and he’s 26 years old.  Hard to find a 26-year-old that you can project 20+ homers, 10+ steals and a .270 average.  He’ll probably be ranked around 20th overall at the end of the year, but Ellsbury, Marte, Myers, etc. could be ranked much further down at the end of the year.  To summarize the last 500 words, Upton’s upside isn’t as great as some, but his downside is a lot less severe.  To summarize further, good not great.  To summarize even further, good.  2014 Projections:  88/25/79/.270/12

12. Alex RiosSaberhagenmetricians don’t even know what to do with Rios.  Rios had two huge seasons earlier in his career, then went to complete crap for a year then bounced back for a great season, then junk and now he’s riding back-to-back great seasons.  If that was an SAT question, skim milk is to whole milk as soda is to the Amish.  Let me take you by the hand to the promised land, and threaten everyone, cause Rios has no rhyme or no reason for nothing, Eminem.  There’s as good a chance that Rios hits 25 homers as 12.  Also, he could steal 40 bases or 10.  In front of Fielder in Arlington, has to spell wonderful, right?  Yeah, just like when Hamilton moved behind Pujols last year.  What we do know is the Rangers stole the 2nd most in the majors last year because Ron Washington is a tad antsy in the dugout (no idea why), and Rios has 40-steal speed.  Also, Rios should hit 15 homers, at least, and could hit 25+.  That’s gotta be worth something, right?  Rhetorical!   2014 Projections:  91/17/74/.284/30

13. Jacoby Ellsbury – I went over my Jacoby Ellsbury fantasy when he signed with the Yankees.  It was nominated for a Bloggie, but lost to Twenty Pictures Of Cats That You’ll LOL At.  2014 Projections:  98/13/57/.279/32

14. Shin-Soo Choo – Here’s my Choo fantasy when he signed with Texas.  It was written high on sugar.  2014 Projections:  101/20/59/.277/20

15. Wil Myers – 25 homers and 10 steals.  That’ll be his projections.  If that’s all you want, move on now.  I want to talk less about Myers but more about the psychology of fantasy baseball.  Player A and Player B both hit 8 homers in April.  Player A is Matt Holliday, Player B is Wil Myers.  Who do you want?  It doesn’t really matter.  They both gave you the same.  Right?  Wrong.  Wrong?  Right.  If Myers hits well in April, people are going to rename their pets Myers or Wil and start smoking pipes and using words like “foray” and phrases like “top of the morning to ya.”  If Holliday does it, people will start thinking about selling high.  Myers’s upside is unknown.  Think about how I sold Machado last year for David Price when one started hot and one started cold.  With unknown comes a huge reward factor.  Sure, there’s risk, but not huge risk.  Myers could hit one homer in April and be batting .220 going into May, and immediately people will be looking at buying low.  People will still want Wil, people. (<–not really a palindrome!)  Players are not created equal.  It’s good to have players that other people want.  People don’t inherently want, say, Alex Gordon, people want Myers.  People don’t want Carlos Beltran, people want Myers.  That’s not to say throw out the baby with the bathwater.  You don’t want to jeopardize your team just to be filled with players that others ‘want,’ but when a downside is as marginal as Myers, you go for the reward.  2014 Projections:  78/25/90/.271/10

16. Starling Marte – Last year Marte had 12 homers and 41 steals.  That’s better than I’m projecting Ellsbury for this year.  So, the question is will Marte repeat, get worse or get better?  Last year he had a 12.2% HR/FB rate.  That’s repeatable.  Maybe it falls to just around 10%, which would give him 10 homers if all things are equal.  He’s definitely more of a 10 homer guy than a 15 or 20 homer guy…In 135 games, which he had last year.  No reason why he can’t play 150 games.  If he does, he’s hitting 15 homers.  Now the steals are tied to his batting average, because he doesn’t walk at all.  He hit .280 last year with a .363 BABIP.  He’s fast, so a higher BABIP isn’t totally off, but .363 is high even for him.  He’s a lot closer to a .250 hitter than a .280 hitter.  He hit .254 in the 2nd half last year, and I could see that over a full season.  That will drop his steals too.  He might only steal 25 bases.  One big unknown is does Marte hit in front of Jordy Mercer and does Mercer hit .230 or .280?  Okay, the bigger question is who the hell is Jordy Mercer?  And what is a Jordy?  Sounds like a nickname for the fat kid in your class that chews gum he takes off the bottom of a desk.  Jordy, stop chewing used Bubblicious and hit .280, please.  Speaking of Bubblicious, is it me or has candy not changed at all since you were a kid?  Feels like the candy market needs some innovation.  Compare the changes to candy to the changes in computers in the last 30 years.  As a society, we need less computer scientists and more candiologists.  Stop worrying about making my phone smarter, and start worrying about giving me something besides Nerds.  2014 Projections:  91/15/40/.259/30

17. Alex Gordon – Okay, now on the fo’really-all-seriously-seriousness tip, he can’t hit leadoff in 2014.  Just can’t do it.  Royals have Aoki now.  C’mon, do what’s right here and bat Gordon at least 2nd and maybe 3rd.  For the love of all that is holy if you believe in holy things.  With Aoki batting in front of him abcsicwnjicw– Oops, sorry, I had my fingers crossed.  With Aoki batting in front of him (please), Gordon could finally get his 20+ homers, 10+ steals and counting stats that won’t resemble that of, say, Victorino.  2014 Projections:  84/23/92/.282/12

18. Carlos Gomez – He doesn’t have one breakout season under his belt.  Last year, he hit 24 homers and stole 40 bases.  The year before he hit 19 homers and stole 37.  If he hit one more homer in 2012, psychologically you’d have no problems with him being a top twenty guy.  Not a top 20 outfielder, but top 20 player overall.  I know, this all surprised me too, but for all intents and porpoises he had back-to-back 20/40 seasons.  Oh, and he hit .280 last year and .260 in 2012, so it’s not like he’s killing you anywhere.  I fought myself to get Kemp in the top 20 outfielders, but Carlos Gomez won.  2014 Projections:  84/22/71/.259/35

19. Hunter Pence – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until the top 40 outfielders for 2014 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “They’re older and getting older.  Weird how that works.”  Remember the days when everyone had a crazy aunt?  Now everyone has a lesbian aunt.  Times are changin’, over-the-internet friend.  This tier is filled with guys that are headed the wrong way on the age scale and they remember the days of crazy aunts.  In 2012, Pence stole 5 bases.  Then last year, Pence’s gangliness confused pitchers and they allowed him to get a 40 foot lead off of first base.  Or maybe he started shooting up speedballs and Red Bull.  Or maybe he had a nightmare that Joy Behar was trying to kiss him and he was running away from her.  I don’t know, but 22 steals at 30 years old when he never topped 20 before made no sense and I doubt he approaches that total again.  Unless Joy Behar now travels with the team.  2014 Projections:  83/24/90/.262/12

20. Carlos Beltran – Beltran was great when he was co-starring on My So Called Life with Claire Danes, but Danes is now on Homeland flexing her acting chops playing an agent that is crazy-but-not-really-crazy-but-really-is-crazy-and-in-love-with-a-guy-that’s-a-terrorist-but-not-really-a-terrorist-but-is-a-terrorist while Beltran is doing cameos in major league lineups between injuries.  If you get a full season from Beltran, you could have a top 15 outfielder season.  If he fails to Zombino, you might get a horror show.  2014 Projections:  78/24/88/.279/5

  1. John says:
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    Im so glad you agree on Beltran. Stud. Nice job guys, this is great

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @John: Thanks!

  2. costaricanchata says:
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    @ Grey :

    candiologists …. pretty sure it’s on the curriculum @ charleston
    (little know fact ==> charleston chew)
    were you paying attention in class ?
    did you even go to class ??

    “… for all intents and porpoises …”
    i believe the phrase is ==> for all indented porpoises
    (not completely sure on that one)

    your shizz plays funny in tropical climes .
    carry on .

    p.s.
    just to rile up J-FOH and a few of your other henchmen :
    what are you , a complete idiot ?
    do you have geico and save 15 % on moron insurance ??
    any fool can see that ellsbury will out-perform harper in 2014 .
    (thank me later) .

    • willy says:
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      @costaricanchata: This is Ellsbury’s injury season… he alternates. last year was the year to own him… this is the year to sell high and get something reliable. Plus, he’s got his money now…

  3. Natty Boh says:
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    I love your work, but I dont think Carlos Gomez gets enough love. At 20 plus HRs and 30 plus SB, I want him like you want Jay Bruce.

    • Donald Trump says:
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      @Natty Boh: Seriously. Dude is in his prime, and improvement seems more likely than not. How about 27hr and 40sb? Stud.

    • Andrew A says:
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      @Natty Boh:

      just looking at the Gomez’s projected stat line here, those stats could put him around 13/14. What he may lack in average he makes up in RBI, and HR/SB over guys like Ellsbury, Choo, Marte, etc

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Natty Boh: I could see it, just feel like Bruce is a bit safer…

  4. Rotorankers.tumblr.com says:
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    Your Wil Myers/Holliday thing is genius. I’ve been having similar discussions regarding Jose Abreu/Brandon Moss and Segura/Reyes. Similar production but drastically different perception. You articulated it perfectly.

  5. Bill James says:
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    Or how he wants Rutledge and peacock

    Hehehe

  6. g-stav says:
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    WHERE THE F*%& IS 21-100! I’m not paying you to LIE TO ME!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @g-stav: Coming tomorrow — 21-40

  7. Nelson santovenia says:
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    What exactly do you base the ranking on? For example, you give Alex Gordon slightly better numbers than JUpton but have him ranked lower. Same with Gomez vs Marte. Is is a probability of reaching those stats type of thing?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Rankings are a careful PH balance of numbers and upside. Upton has a 30+ HR season under his belt. Gordon does not and doesn’t have that potential in his arsenal without some extreme luck. Gordon is who he is and J-Up could be a lot more.

      • Wake Up says:
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        @Sky: Agree with your point…but not your example …think J-Upside…entering his 8th season…might be who he is too…

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          @Wake Up: I was just presenting the stats. But that backs the statement: he is who he is as in a guy who could hit 30+ HRs in a season. He might’ve hit his ceiling but it’s still higher than Gordon’s and can be hit again.

          • Wake Up says:
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            @Sky: Yeah like I said I agree with your point…I guess the question is WILL the ceiling be hit again? And, IS there still room for more? In this example, I say NO…so that is where we disagree, I guess…

            Maybe I AM hard to understand…

            Note to self – brush-up on Communication Skills…oh, and work on your weirdness…you sexy bastard!

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              I guess I was looking more at the mark of the stats themselves. To me, Gordon is getting the benefit of the doubt to hit his ceiling with the 23 HR mark. Alex is an OF3 dressed as an OF2 by a huge amount of ABs. He reminds me of when Markakis was good: a 14/10 year out of him nestled in between his 23/17 and 20/11. Overall, he’s probably the safest between the two for his floor but I would say there is room for more for J-Up still. Of course, I don’t know why I give to bee farts about this. I don’t really want either this year.

              I can tell you’ve been doing your weirdness squats, you look great in those yoga pants!

              • Wake Up says:
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                @Sky: Yeah I don’t give to bee farts ethier…they give to me in the form of honey…

                So we do agree that we are avoiding J-Up…nice!

                Markakis comp is a little brutal…ouch…

                Not too much with the cut-out for my balls?

                • Sky

                  Sky says:
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                  Gives a whole new meaning to ‘Honeywell’…

                  J-Up’s just too all over the place. He could go off but I look at those two 17 HR seasons under his belt and squirm a bit…

                  I’m nothing if not honest. Good hitters with extreme amount of PAs:

                  http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2013&month=0&season1=2011&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=4,d

                  http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2009&month=0&season1=2007&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=4,d

                  (hope those work)

                  Just make sure and not sit in a bad spot in the punching bag section of the weirdness gym…

                  • Wake Up says:
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                    @Sky: HA…

                    No, it was accurate and honest…
                    Just that I’ve never liked Markakis (which you could not know)
                    and it was brutal to me…because I was digging on Gordon a little…gonna have to take another look…

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      Yeah, counting stats guys who need to play 150+ games and that’s their calling card…not my bag typically. Just depends where they go. Yoenis I like a lot more. Higher power upside, albiet clearly a gamble with BA and health. Alex Gordon 20/10 required 700+ PA, got 26/7 out of Yoenis in 574.

                  • Grey

                    Grey says:
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                    Yeah, I hear ya… Offense is a bit of a mess, so gotta hope for everyone, really…

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      @Grey: Yup. I love Yoenis this year, Grey…and I like Cespedes too!

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Me too…Too, me!

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      Did you miss my in your endo?

                  • Wake Up says:
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                    @Sky: Gordon is one of those guys that’s good at everything…he can really stabilize your team, but he’s not gonna win you any cats…not a lot of those players out there…you can gamble on someone else if you take someone like him@Grey: @Sky: and who really wants to win cats when there are so many free ones available for adoption…also, the Royals are gonna be better than last year so less PA won’t hurt his counting stats much…just flip his Runs and RBIs around…also, he had one really fluky month last year if I recall correctly so he could have easily put up 25 HRs/.275-.280…YoPenis will hurt you in AVG, and have less Runs and RBIs…but give you more power than Gordon…so it really depends on the rest of your team and what you need but I’m still leaning Gordon for the not hurting you anywhere…like a body pillow made of jello…

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      I think the verdict is still out on who Yodingus really is: career .265 hitter albeit with a small amount of games/at-bats to extrapolate that from. Given the dearth of offense – in particular power – I’ll take the 30HR potential there personally and let the average sort itself out later. I will say that at least Gordon is kind of a set him and forget him kinda guy. It’s rare he goes through long droughts unlike my Grandpappy when he left Oklahoma during his ‘Grapes of Wrath’ phase.

                  • Wake Up says:
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                    @Sky: JoAnus’ average is just dust in the wind…

                    Your grandpap looks like a Raisin…in the sun…

                    I’m drinking…a lot…

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      I have more than a feeling Yonipple will deliver this year

                      How did you know my G-pa was George Hamilton!

                      I drink only a little…if time were measured in decades…

  8. Sporto says:
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    Ok Grey, 12 team H2H keeper advice. We keep 6 with no restrictions. I am keeping:

    Miggy
    Dread Pirate
    Kershaw
    J. Upton

    I need to keep two out of:

    Cole Hamels
    Reyes
    Hosmer
    Choo

    Who’d you go with? I’m leaning towards Hosmer and Choo right now…

      • Sporto says:
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        @Grey: @Grey:

        Thanks for your help! I really hope Hosmer gets it going this year

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  9. HollywoodNights says:
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    Why so low on Gomez? 20/30 candidate, will hit at least .260 and showed he can hit around .280.

    I’d easily put him in that top 10 conversation for outfielders.

  10. Hey I have (had) a Grandpa Joe too, what do you know.

    • Danula says:
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      Everyday reader, love the site. In a forever keeper league, I can keep 3 pitchers. Who should they be from Sale, Teheran, Zimmermann, Wacha, Minor, Shields, Rosenthal?

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        @Danula: Thanks! Sale, Teheran, Wacha

  11. TheNewGuy says:
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    Sorry Grey, but why is this:

    84/22/71/.259/35

    lower ranked than this:

    91/15/40/.259/30

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @TheNewGuy: Guys are more than their stats

      • TheNewGuy says:
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        @Grey: Do explain please. Isnt as much Grey matter inside my head as yours.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Explain what, sir?

          • goodfold2 says:
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            @Grey: @TheNewGuy: he likely trusts marte to get his stats (or better) more so than the other cargo to get his projections. cargo is older and has in the past shown it’s way more likely to not get last year’s stats than marte is to not improve on his (or at least get the same as last year)

  12. TheNewGuy says:
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    “People will still want Wil, people. (<–not really a palindrome!)"

    Haha so close, fooled me into thinking it was at first. Good effort!

  13. Cruisinkc says:
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    Need some major keeper help. My league is a 12 team roto scoring 6×6 league with the extra two categories being quality starts and doubles. I need to keep 5 players out of the following group and there is no limit to how long you can keep a player.

    Buster Posey
    Goldschmidt
    Kyle Seager
    Brad Miller
    Starlin Castro
    Yoenes Cespedes
    Billy Hamilton
    BJ Upton
    Xander Bogaerts

    Thoughts on which 5 are the best keepers?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Cruisinkc: Hey, our first lady reader! Goldy, Yoenis, Hamilton, Posey, Bogaerts

      • Cruisinkc says:
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        @Grey: @Grey: Thanks for the help!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

          • Crapshoot Kershaw says:
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            @Grey: how did you surmise that this was a woman?

  14. Curt says:
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    I think Desmond Jennings can easily obtain the numbers you have for Marte……Just my opinion.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Curt: He could…

      • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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        @Grey: or he might even get desmond jennings type numbers.

  15. Mindicohn says:
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    Long one here (sorry)…taking over a team in a 14 team keeper …5×5 (uses Obp and TB instead of Avg and HR)..Team we took over is what you’d probably expect from a team where the owner quit mid-season.

    C – Iannetta 11, LuCroy 12
    1b – Yonder 11
    2b – infante 6
    3b Headley 16
    ss reyes 37
    mi – Kendrick 9
    ci – scutaro 11
    of – bourn 24, Dejesus 6, hunter 17, parra 9, willinghammer 16
    U – Pujols 52

    P – Cueto 24,danks 6,feldman 6, gee 9,grimm 6, Jim Johnson 12, Henderson 3, Cliff Lee 27, H.Santiago 6, Weaver 28, Cole 6

    Bench/Minors:
    Hitters — these guys would all be $1 to keep
    Mike Olt,Chris Owings, Jonathan Villar, Brian Goodwin, Will Venable, Ronald Guzman, A.Mondesi (ss kc), Rymer Liriano

    Pitchers — all $1 to keep
    Jonathan Gray, Kluber, Porcello, Jameson Taillaon , Allen Webster and Judy Tanaka

    We can keep as many as we want…Have some ideas of who we’re keeping but just looking for some overall thoughts…Especially in terms of the bench/minors guys…I’ve never heard much of some of them…

    Also been offered Adrian Gonzalez $31 and Sugar Cain 6 for our LuCroy…If this were a 1 C league I’d do it, but its 2C…Barf, I hate catchers.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Lose Danks, Grimm, Parra, Scutaro, Goodwin, Ronald Guzman, Jonathan Gray, A.Mondesi, Rymer Liriano… Take A-Gon if there’s no 1st baseman going to be in the draft… Your team is a bit of a mess…

      • mindicohn says:
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        @Grey: offer now is agon, Eaton $7 and Prado or Phillips for lucroy 11 and Kluber 1. Prado is 21 and Phillips 24.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I’d take it…With Phillips

  16. Pager24 says:
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    Tanaka to the Yankees per Buster Olney. Looks to be $155 Million over 7 yrs

    • TheNewGuy says:
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      Beat me to it Pager@Pager24: Beat me to it Pager.

      Not great news for fantasy, having to contend with that short porch. Much rather seen him head to Dodgertown. You still high on him in NYC Grey?

        • TheNewGuy says:
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          @Grey: Dunno, not got to the pitchers yet.

          Imagine you will be. We’ll see I guess.

  17. mymrbig says:
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    Someone out there is going to draft Rios and Gomez and either end up the happiest person in the world, or sitting in a warm bathtub naked hoping the Trinity Killer stops by.

  18. Chris says:
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    Notice that Matt Kemp is not in your top 20. I was thinking about keeping him over Wil Myers but more discouraging news has surfaced on Matt Kemp in the last few days. How big of a mistake would it be to let Myers go on the chance that Kemp returns to form? Your thoughts.

    Plus Kemp apparently hangs out with a Kardashian so I’m now thinking he may never be the same player again……..

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Chris: Pretty obvious since I have Myers way above Kemp…

  19. Mike says:
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    Thoughts on 5 keepers for this year only, 5X5, 260 salary. Minimum innings Pitched needed 1650.
    Segura 1
    Guyrko 1
    Iwakuma 1
    Wacha 1
    Freeman 16
    Bruce 24
    Choo 21
    Longoria 24

    Thx Very Much

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Mike: Segura, Gyorko, Iwakuma, Wacha, Freeman

      • Mike says:
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        thx Grey ,

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          No problem

  20. manormachine? says:
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    Why is everyone so amazed at Pence’s SB from last year? He said at the beginning of the season that he was going to run more and he did, making more attempts than he had in three years. Later in the season, he said that Bochy and the coaching staff trusted him to choose when he ran. His caught stealing % is very good, but it could just be a product an experienced player choosing the right situations to run. I would add at least 5 SB to that projection.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @manormachine?: Because he wasn’t young and he stole way more bases than he ever had before

  21. David says:
    (link)

    Do your rankings change if say you counted 2B, 3B, BB and OPS? That’s what my keeper league counts and I own Carlos Gomez

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @David: They change a bit… OPS rankings will come out later in the month…

  22. Shawn of the livid says:
    (link)

    Looks like Tanaka is going to be a Yankee. I look forward to your analysis Grey!

  23. Mike says:
    (link)

    Why isn’t Dominic Brown in this list?

    • George says:
      (link)

      @Mike: Because he is not on the top 20 list.

      • Mike says:
        (link)

        @George: His numbers are better than some of these guys… He went 65/27/83/.278 last year. He’s only 26.

        • George says:
          (link)

          @Mike: And he was not a top 100 outfielder in the 2nd half of last year which is why he is not a pre-season top 20 outfielder.

          Because of his atrocious 2nd half last year, Brown is simply not good enough to be considered a top 20 outfielder entering this season.

          He might crack the top 60.

        • Fungazi says:
          (link)

          @Mike: Hit half his homers for the year in 1 month. That’s poop.

          • goodfold2 says:
            (link)

            @Fungazi: it was fun to waiver him in some leagues during the first week in May though. hehehehe!

  24. Gonzo_The_Great says:
    (link)

    So I’ve got the good kind of problems, I’ve got both Myers and Gomez as keepers and can keep them for next to nothing (Gomez will cost me a 7th round pick and Myers and 9th). Also drafting third.

    Do I use the number three pick to snap up another top-20 OF and have a dominant outfield or stand pat with who I’ve got and go for a more scarce position?

  25. Roger Anderson says:
    (link)

    I had NONE of those guys and still won my league. How? With great pitching, solid infield including AuShizz, Buster,, Kipnis, and Karen
    & Davids cousin Matt (Carpenter). You can always find new OF talent as the season goes on.

      • Fireball Feliz says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        haha best reply ever

  26. Donald Trump says:
    (link)

    When are you going to accept bitcoin?

  27. Sad Keanu says:
    (link)

    Which 7 keepers do you take for an auction draft (6×5 w/ OPS, $260 cap)? Thanks Grey

    Fielder, Prince(1B) TEX $37
    Longoria, Evan(3B) TB $22
    Segura, Jean(SS) MIL $9
    Gonzalez, Adrian(1B) LAD $33
    Choo, Shin-Soo(OF) TEX $19
    Jennings, Desmond(OF) TB $7
    Stanton, Giancarlo(OF) MIA $9
    Upton, Justin(OF) ATL $26
    Frazier, Todd(3B) CIN $13

    Greinke, Zack(SP) LAD $25
    Hernandez, Felix(SP) SEA $34
    Bumgarner, Madison(SP) SF $26
    Cain, Matt(SP) SF $31
    Cingrani, Tony(SP) CIN $4
    Liriano, Francisco(SP) PIT $8
    Moore, Matt(SP) TB $7

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @Sad Keanu: Prince, Longo, Segura, Choo, Desmond, Stanton, Liriano

      • Sad Keanu says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Desmond is kinda a surprise since he’s not in the top 20 but he’s cheap. And I thought you still carried a torch for Moore…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I don’t carry a torch for Moore any, uh, more…

  28. Fungazi says:
    (link)

    12 team H2H, 7 x 7 (BB, TB & L, QS) and have MI & CI slots, keep 6:

    Also, trade my 2nd rounder so only have 1 pick in the top 30ish players left after keepers this year.

    4 – 1B – Goldy,
    2B – Kipnis
    3B – Zimmerman
    SS – Hanley
    OF – CarGo (real one)

    and 1 more:

    Pence, Gyorko, Cain, Minor, S. Miller

    Thanks for your help!

      • Fungazi says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Cool, that first pick I have would most likely need to be a SP then, would you agree? Wouldn’t have the second pick until 105ish ranked players.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, makes sense

  29. GFY250 says:
    (link)

    If your projections are close, Gomez should be well ahead of Marte and up to where Ellsbury is. What’s the reasoning? Higher injury risk? Just don’t trust a 6’4″ Gomez?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Don’t trust him as much…

  30. J-FOH says:
    (link)

    I always love me some Grandpa Joe references. I’ve started to monogram my stuff too

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Haha

  31. Drew says:
    (link)

    Grey-

    In a keep-forever league 6×6 (OPS) league can you rank these 3 for me?

    Harper, A. Jones, C. Gonzalez

    Thanks

    • willy says:
      (link)

      @Drew: I’d rank them in that order… keep forever

  32. Drew says:
    (link)

    Grey-

    In a keep-forever league 6×6 (OPS) H2H each category league can you rank these 3 for me?

    Harper, A. Jones, C. Gonzalez

    Thanks

    • Drew says:
      (link)

      @Drew: sorry for dupe

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Harper, Jones

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      People are out for my blood?

      • Sky

        Sky says:
        (link)

        In the ‘Billy Bob Thornton vial around the neck’ sort of way.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          In the Slingblade staring out the window way?

          • Sky

            Sky says:
            (link)

            If Angelina Jolie is on the other side of said window in this scenario…yes

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              HAHA

    • J-FOH says:
      (link)

      @Sky: Don’t see anyone asking for Grey’s blood….yet, maybe for Pence, but Giants fan are such an amusing little bunch. I think you wrote this to highlight your previous articles. Sky, we know you’re here and we appreciate your contributions, now get back to your football dungeon and accept that Cutler will be a top ten QB

      • Sky

        Sky says:
        (link)

        Did you just subtweet me on a website?

        • J-FOH says:
          (link)

          @Sky: snapchat is coming

          • Sky

            Sky says:
            (link)

            Snapchat Is Coming

            • J-FOH says:
              (link)

              @Sky: time well spent on me. You really need to stop going to the crying game well, you’re tapping it out, save some for mid season.

              • Sky

                Sky says:
                (link)

                I wouldn’t have used it if it weren’t convenient. I’m all about easy…it’s why I like you!

                • J-FOH says:
                  (link)

                  @Sky: you can’t call me a whore when the steak is free

                  • Sky

                    Sky says:
                    (link)

                    Blurred lines, Robin Thicke…

  33. Al koholic says:
    (link)

    i grabbed gomez fairly cheap in all leagues last year so he was a bonus,his price will be higher this year though,im liking desmond jennings as a possible breakout guy this year,thanks for the rankings boss,ive missed you

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yup…Miss you!

  34. Great work as always Grey.

    Requesting a column where you give a draft strategy for outfielders, like the one you do every year for starting pitchers, you know, as in “if your first OF is from this tier, you can skip this tier and get two from this group” and whatnot.

    Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Cool, will try to work it in…

  35. Paul says:
    (link)

    Am going to keep Stanton this year, also hope he will be traded to competitive lineup soon. (eg , LAD) If so, I could keep him for years…

    • Paul says:
      (link)

      By the way, I am little concerning about Stanton’s injury and very slow warm up . How do you think, Grey?

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        With my brain? I think Stanton will be fine, but there’s obviously some concerns…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Cool

  36. Buck says:
    (link)

    Grey, 12 Team H2H Keeper League: Get to Keep 4. Which 4 are you keeping?

    Jose Bautista (forfeit 1st round pick)
    Madison Bumgarner (7th round)
    Glen Perkins (14 th round)
    Alexei Ramirez (18th round)
    Matt Carpenter (19th round or next lowest pick)
    Erasmo Ramirez (19th round or next lowest pick)
    Matt Adams (19th round or next lowest pick)
    Xander Bogaerts (19th round or next lowest pick)
    Oscar Taveras (19th round or next lowest pick)
    Brandon Moss (19th round or next lowest pick)
    Wilson Ramos (19th round or next lowest pick)

    TIA

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Adams, Xander, Oscar, Carpenter

  37. Swagger Jackers says:
    (link)

    @Grey: I like your analysis of the Myers hype train and it leads me to this:

    Who do you think has more hype coming into 2014, Myers or Billy Hamilton?

    It seems to me if Billy comes out the gate hot with 15+ steals, he could be flipped for a higher profit than Myers coming out the gate with a more well-rounded 5 HR, decent counting stats less sexy stat line.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Hamilton considering his small sample size

      • Swagger Jackers says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Would you therefore keep Hamilton over Myers?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Nah

  38. MattH says:
    (link)

    Loving these rankings. Nice work, Grey!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks!

  39. Justin Cook says:
    (link)

    10 team, 5 keepers … gotta pick 2 between Myers, Bruce, J Upton. Finishing first means you get first pick, so there’s a twist! Who ya got?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Myers, Bruce

  40. Wake Up says:
    (link)

    Call me crazy…but…I’ve been digging into my arms with an old razor that I found on the ground outside…looking for all the bugs that Carrie had implanted under my skin…

    • Prez says:
      (link)

      @Wake Up: what was that? I cant understand you wake! :)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Do you also have a full drawer of about 200 pregnancy tests?

      • Wake Up says:
        (link)

        @Grey: No! Don’t be silly…
        I have however tried to test 200 times…
        But, who can hit those things, really?
        Just a waste of 200 pieces of toilet paper…cleaning 200 gelled spots on the bathroom floor…or so my friend told me…guess it WAS good that I never tested at home…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          I find the best test is to just ask the girl if they’re pregnant…

          • Wake Up says:
            (link)

            @Grey: Yeah but she can lie…the test won’t…that’s why I test myself…just saw a new post…moving over there…I’m slow today…

          • Wake Up says:
            (link)

            @Grey: False alarm…just some Asian mispronunciation jokes…about a SP that won’t be there by the time I’ll be ready to draft him…

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              Ha!

          • Wake Up says:
            (link)

            @Grey: I keed, I keed, of course…just wanted to say Great stuff with the OFers today!

            Can’t really find anything other than Puig that I disagree with you on…

            A little confused about J-up too, I guess. You mention his limited downside – which I totally agree with you on…but then you mention that there is room for more…which I don’t think we’ll see…but I am only a man, not a wizard…so

            • Grey

              Grey says:
              (link)

              You are a wizard, aren’t you? I knew there would be a catch if I finished your comment!

              • Wake Up says:
                (link)

                @Grey: sheesh…I can’t say great stuff if we don’t agree on every single thing?

                Your OFers rankings are worse than Hitler!

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
                  (link)

                  Haha

  41. Prez says:
    (link)

    I remember someone coming on here with an article a few years back about how if i guy ranks near the top of second half power hitters blah blah blah hes going to be a breakout guy… I told that guy him and his article were full of shizz… Then we had jason castro and i started to believe it a tad.

    http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2013/3/28/4154754/the-next-next-next-jose-bautista

    Just for S & Gs i looked up this article again. It seems like complete bs.. but then he was right more than once!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Interesting…

      • J-FOH says:
        (link)

        @Grey: when it works you can point to the article and when it doesn’t it looks ridiculous. I mean they did reference Michael Morse as one of the most powerful hitters in baseball. And failed to mention the ridiculous jump in numbers that Hunter Pence had. It’s Poppycock, not the delicious snack but the bad as in not good bad, like. I still wouldn’t draft Umbaldo with your team because I think he’s bad

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Ha, gotcha

        • Prez says:
          (link)

          @J-FOH: i agree its quite far fetched.. after reading into it more it gets pretty head scratching.. one of the factors of it is, if a guy doesnt know where hes going to play the field. Really? Power numbers determined by a guy not knowing if hes playing infield or outfield? Bogus..

          But…. I did look into it and the most reasonable candidates for the formula are will venable and……. Matt adams. Haha although madams hasnt been in the league that long (another ridiculous factor) hes right up there in ISO, SLG and HRs in september. His HR/FB is in line with it as well. The Gjerk is also in the convo.

          Like i said, it was just for S & Gs.. i didnt believe it when it was brought up last year and even more so now. But ya never know.

  42. TheNewGuy says:
    (link)

    Who do you like more as a keeper for next year:

    Pence ($13 rising to $16), or H Bailey ($5 rising to $8)

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Bailey

  43. los locos says:
    (link)

    I am pretty set with my 3 SP keepers in Verlander, Kershaw and Strausburg.. I need to choose 4 of the below.. Thoughts/suggestions. 10 team keeper

    Craig, Allen(1B,OF) STL
    Zobrist, Ben(2B,OF,SS) TB
    Carpenter, Matt(2B,3B) STL
    Ramirez, Hanley(SS) LAD
    Beltran, Carlos(OF) NYY
    Rios, Alex(OF) TEX
    Rizzo, Anthony(1B) CHC
    Heyward, Jason(OF) ATL

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Craig, Allen(1B,OF) STL
      Ramirez, Hanley(SS) LAD
      Rios, Alex(OF) TEX
      Rizzo, Anthony(1B) CHC

  44. Carnac says:
    (link)

    Real Update from ESPN’s Fantasy Summit

    “Wandy line might be undraftable this year. So much depth”

    – Eric Karabell

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      HA!

  45. Blue says:
    (link)

    I will drink deeply of outfielders this year. I can see picking three in the first three rounds.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Might be a bit much

  46. Curt says:
    (link)

    CBS has Evan Gattis 11th best outfielder(cbs is what our money league uses)…..I don’t see it…….that’s why I don’t listen to them…..am I missing something?????

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      That’s insane

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      You sure you weren’t looking at catchers?

      • Curt says:
        (link)

        @Grey: I am sure, Kemp was 10th overall and Billy Hamilton 12th…..based on 5 x 5!!!!!!!

        • Curt says:
          (link)

          @Curt: and, believe it or not, Jason Werth 9th best of!!!!!!!!

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Haha

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yes!

    • J-FOH says:
      (link)

      @Carnac: well he is baseball’s cockroach

  47. Jason says:
    (link)

    I was offered Buster Posey and Avisail Garcia for my OFs Puig and Alex Rios. I’m leaning toward keeping 2 potential top 10 OFs, but am I ignoring Puig’s potential downside by passing on the proven Posey? Thanks, and great work on the rankings!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks! Hold…

  48. OaktownSteve says:
    (link)

    interesting you chose Beltran and Myers for that little thought exercise, Albrecht.

    Now I know this is going to make me sound like an old timer, but I remember way back when this kid came up one year and in like a little over half a season he hit 19 homers, stole 11 bases, hit .293, great counters. Just a kid too. Sky was the limit. Can’t miss, they said. Well if you’re as old as me, you remember the story of Eric Hosmer.

    It’s a little bonkers to think that Wil Myers has limited downside. When you’ve got a track record that short…let’s just say I could have picked a lot more guys than Hosmer who didn’t live up to the can’t miss label.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yeah, that’s true but Myers looks better on paper coming up than Hosmer… I do get your bigger point… Myers could fail, hopefully he won’t…

      • OaktownSteve says:
        (link)

        @Grey:

        Magoo and I have been talking about the idea of risk management. I’m going to drop something in the forums later around that topic.

        In the same vein, I work with portfolio managers and there’s a lot of parallels in looking at a FBB team like a stock portfolio. If you pick all penny stocks you have a chance to go boom or bust. If you pick all utility stocks, you’re going to have a safer portfolio but with limited growth potential. So when guys construct portfolios, it’s often targeted to a certain risk tolerance. In FBB if you want to balance risk you choose some Myerses and some Beltranses. So the pick might be contingent upon how safe you feel in the guys you’ll put around them.

        While I do think the portfolio management analogy is interesting, I’m not saying you can’t argue against it’s utility in FBB and I also think if you do buy into it, it’s not necessarily the case that a balanced risk portfolio is optimal. Might be. Would have to dig into it more.

        • J-FOH says:
          (link)

          @OaktownSteve: In one league last year a guy had every hot up and coming take it to the next level guy surrounded by not one solid veteran. he was also first to pick up every call up as soon as a whisper appeared. Let’s just say he didn’t win, nor even come close. At one point I felt he could of moved some of those young stocks while the name was still holding value before they fell off a cliff and were as useful as tits on a bull. As my sensei once told me, you must have balance….and by sensei I mean my Sushi chef. I was really bad at adding up the receipt.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          Yeah, totally agree… This is like I talk about with how to draft pitchers… A riskier number one should go with a less risky number two, etc.

  49. Jon says:
    (link)

    My top two keeper OFers are Stanton and Kemp, so while there’s worlds of upside there I’m also nervous that Kemp could be injured for most of the year and Stanton could disappoint again. I’d like to have someone safer with them. Beltran is ranked crazy low in CBS (181st overall) but he’s another risky guy. Worth trying to get if I don’t have to give up a lot, or is he too much in the same vein as my guys and I should target someone else?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Worth trying to get if you can get him cheap, sure…

  50. Curt says:
    (link)

    Yep Grey….CBS rankings, Beltran 181st overall……….And Gattis 33rd…..overall!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      C’mon! No way! I really don’t believe it…

      • Curt says:
        (link)

        @Grey: Totally…..ask the gentleman Jon who said Beltran was crazy low at 181…..NO BS, Gattis is 33rd overall!!!!!!…………Smoke up Johnny…..

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          That’s madness…

  51. Curt says:
    (link)

    Gattis, Evan OF ATL

    Free Agent 0.2531 27 68 89 0 33

  52. The Turk says:
    (link)

    Speaking of outfielders. 7×7 yahoo league. OBP and Slugging play. Do I keep:
    Carlos Gomez at $11 or
    McCutcheon at $36 or
    Choo at $20

    And while you”re offering free advice….
    Shelby Miller or Danny Salazar. Both at $4.
    BB/9 and H/9 and Innings play. In addition to W and K and ERA

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Gomez… Salazar…

  53. Bulldozer says:
    (link)

    I can keep up to three of these guys. Thoughts?

    Oswaldo Arcia
    Asche
    Bogaerts
    Castellanos
    Avisail Garcia
    Gattis
    Billy Hamilton
    Brad Miller
    Yelich
    Villar
    d’Arnaud

    Thanks! You are awesome.

    • Bulldozer says:
      (link)

      @Bulldozer: It’s a points head-to-head league

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Avisail, Hamilton, Asche

  54. Sherwood says:
    (link)

    I have the fourth pick in a upcomming draft. I am narrowing my pick down to who I should take. Wacha , Sonny Gray, J.Gray, K.Bryant, Tanaka, Abreu and Springer. Who sould I take.?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Abreu

  55. Boomer19 says:
    (link)

    In my 5×5 roto league (keep 6 for three years) I have a positional problem. I have four outfielders I need to keep (Jones, Rios, Gomez and Billy Hamilton) and Hosmer and wainwright. It is a rich draft with most of the top players heading back into the mix. I have a feeling that drafting at the turn (12th and 13th) there will be players like Jay Bruce, Stanton, Segura for me to pick from. We use 5 outfielders. Would I be crazy to use one of these picks for another Outfielder ( I’m high on Bruce and Stanton for three years) or should I use both picks to fill other positions? I’ve tried trading but am not getting enough value. Thanks so much.

    • Boomer19 says:
      (link)

      I may be able to trade Hamilton or Gomez for Freeman. I have lots of speed already but that fills my corner infield spot.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
        (link)

        Trade one for Freeman

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Don’t take another outfielder immediately…

  56. Bormy35 says:
    (link)

    Need input. Need to pick one keeper out of following. $260 keeper h2h, each $5

    Xander Bogaerts
    Avisail Garcia
    Jedd Gyorko
    Wilson Ramos
    Chris Archer
    Sonny Gray
    Shelby Miller

  57. John says:
    (link)

    So shiz, i shouldnt have traded addison russell for alex gordon in dynasty? I mean I won the league but in a few years I could be moving back with parents and eating tv dinners again then? cus of the regret if that wasnt clear

  58. Mike says:
    (link)

    Hi Grey

    Thoughts on 5 keepers for this year only, 5X5, 260 salary. Ned MINIMUM 1650 Innings from Pitchers
    Segura 1
    Goyrko 1
    Iwakuma 1
    Wacha 1
    Ortiz 3 ( Utility eligible)
    Freeman 16
    Bruce 24
    Choo 21
    Longoria 24

    Forgot I had Ortiz at 3, you gave me first five to keep, Assume you would throw back Wacha and keep Ortiz ?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Yup

      • Mike says:
        (link)

        Thx

        On the same wave length. I love Bruce and Choo but I can go back and get around same price…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
          (link)

          No problem

  59. goodfold2 says:
    (link)

    good stuff this: “As a society, we need less computer scientists and more candiologists. Stop worrying about making my phone smarter, and start worrying about giving me something besides Nerds.” You’d maybe want to be careful though, about asking too hard to cut down on the nerds, seeing how you’re running a fantasy baseball blog here.

  60. just stole rios and ortiz for ellsebury. had an open util spot .

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Nice

  61. Softie says:
    (link)

    Grey, love your writing man… Hey I have a dynasty league with Trout Harper Bruce and Gordon . We only start 3 OF though…. I know great problem to have right? Well here’s my question… I got an offer to trade Bruce for one of the following 3 Gio Anibal or Lee. Would you move Bruce? And for which one? Thanks….

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Nope

  62. Ron Swanson says:
    (link)

    Love the analysis and witty comments. A guy wants Matt Moore, I’m stacked at pitching, and is willing to give up the following; Carlos Gomez, Hunter Pence, David Ortiz, and Alex Rios. Keeper H2H auction league, Gomez and Pence are minimum $ and can be kept up to 4 yrs, Rios contract is up after 2014, Ortiz $ would only be worth keeping this season and can only slot at DH. Moores contract is through 2015. In what order of guys would you go for?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      Thanks! Rios, Gomez, Pence…

Comments are closed.