If you can, Thanks, if you can’t, I guess Thanks anyways…

That Coletti thing was fascinating. It seemed SO out of character for him to go off like that. He was in the Cub org. for many years before heading West and was known for being a good egg (Like Danny Noonan). I came to the conclusion that the two paisanos (Torre and Ned) orchestrated a good cop bad cop deal so that Joe could stay clean in the clubhouse with the team. Kemp’s work in the OF was abysmal and he did seem to have a little BJ/Hanley-itis in the hustle department. Something needed to be said. Who else would have done it? Blake DeWitt?

friends haven’t heard. (“Interpol” never got me Jose Reyes on the

cheap) I keep waiting for your writing to run dry but it

never does so how long before someone buys you up and you

become passe?

Votto, Tulo, Lincecum, Holliday, Heyward

I had considered Josh Johnson, Martin Prado, Jayson Werth & Adam Dunn throughout the offseason instead of Heyward/Holliday.

Can’t wait for the season to get started!

******THERE’S A NEW POST FOR FOLLOWUPS.******

@Stephen: i get the risk-aversion. i’m not even criticizing it. that’s a strategy choice. i’m mostly just objecting to the idea that no good can come of drafting bautista (where he’s going) under any plan. i’m more of a pure upside whore. i just figure i can always patch over the craters. it usually works pretty well. last year, for example, i drafted chris davis as my starting 3B, but it worked out ok after i picked up bautista.

also maybe it should be noted that i’m writing all of this on nyquil with a 102-degree fever.

Surprised no love for Bruce in the top 20. I know his 2010 wasn’t GREAT by any means, but he came on in the second half and was hampered by a wrist injury in the first portion of the season. Plus, hes got outstanding pedigree and he has three 20 HR seasons under his belt before the age of 24. Sure, hes streaky like no other, but he has showed the skills, albeit in small doses, that made him Jason Heyward before Jason Heyward was Jason heyward (say that three times fast).

As for the link, “He has good power and can turn on a ball while also hitting for average” Good power is 20 to 30 home run power. Plus-Raw power would be the 30 to 40 home run power. Plus-Plus would be 40 to 50 home run power (like Mike Stanton is currently graded for). The article also states a large Home/Road split, but that is neither here nor there as Rockies get the same grip.

As for overall. I think Grey’s projections are closer to reality (70/25/80/.240/5) than a line of 85/40/100/.260/5 or you know, Adam Dunn (who has put up the same numbers over and over again. Personally, I would rather draft conservatively on a high performance year, especially one that warrants red flags. Flags such as Brady Anderson’s season, the lack of plus-power pedigree, all the power was pull-power (something I often read in Baseball America is a hitter being pull conscious and struggling), and it a short time of success. (~700 PA over a career, including minors, or ~5000 PA). Nevertheless, I like him more than Casey McGehee and would draft Bautista if he feel to a reasonable round.

edit I’d pay…

as for your post, i can’t really figure out what to say about it. i realize that bautista’s power production last year is completely nonlinear with his minor league record and prior performance. but that’s not really inconsistent with what i’m saying.

i’m not sure what you’re saying about cruz. that he was bad last year? i thought he was awesome last year. when he played.

…just ran across this BP article on bautista, which i think is a pretty fair rundown of the good & the bad.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=11886

key points:

* changes do exist

* freakishly good home numbers

* opponents likely to study him harder in the offseason

* somewhat susceptible to outside pitches – did have 9 homers out there (& this was before the season ended) but also a lot of pulled grounders

this is basically what i’m saying. as pitchers contine re-booking him, picking him apart like a real slugger and painting the corners his numbers should become mortal. but that’s different from just turning back into the guy he was before. i guess that could happen, but i would find it strange after he already carried the changes across one offseason.

@Tony: if he hits 54 again, then you’ll think he’s “alright”? tough crowd.

still not going to be on any of my fantasy teams!

@101 MPH: Nice breakdown of Matthew I’m Kinda Gay.

@philosofool: Heyward missed time with an injury in 2010 and he batted all around the lineup for a bit.

@RMM: He’s in the next set.

@Cole: He’s in the next list.

he does have substantial downside risk. i’m not saying he doesn’t! with only one year of track record you can’t be positive he won’t lose the handle again or some flaw won’t be found. he had surprise factor going for him last year. pitchers are likely to gradually wear him down. how much is hard to say. could be a lot, could be a little.

plus he was streaky. the good streaks lasted a long time last year. if next year he has a two-month slump instead of a one-month slump, i’m sure i’m going to hear some remarks. which is fine. i mean, maybe i’m completely wrong. it’s possible.

all i’m saying is, i do think he changed.

The difference between Carlos Pena’s first 46 and Bautista’s 54? Pena was a highly regarded prospect (#5 overall pre-2002 according to Baseball America) and showed multiple years in the minors of hitting mid 20 home runs in full minor league seasons (about a full month less than the majors). Also, Bautisita had on minor league season of 20 home runs, but shows ability to hit 25 home runs with poor average.

I’m not buying Bautista’s 2010 season, the same way Nelson Cruz was not the same player last year as in his breakout year. Blame injuries, blame anything you want, Cruz still showed more power in the minors than Bautista ever had.

You know what is great about the Brady Anderson comparisons? Anderson had very similar peripherals in his 50 home run season that he had in nearly ever other season. So before his 50 home runs, he was hitting anywhere between 13 to 21 home runs. After his 50 home run season he hit anywhere between 18 to 24 home runs. He did have a better strikeout to walk ratio than Bautista, but the main argument here is the number of home runs.

Bautista has the potential for a similar path. He hit anywhere between 13 to 16 home runs (24 being a high in the minors) and then hit 54 last year. What he does after is the basis for this debate. Will he regress to 13 to 16 home run range, or increase that range slightly as Anderson did. If that would be the case, he has the ability to hit anywhere between 18 to 27 home runs.

I know this isn’t a scientific inquiry that FanGraphs would perform, but I do believe, that being conservative in predictions is better than being a Bill James and saying Chris Davis is going to hit .275 and 45 home runs.