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The 2010 fantasy baseball rankings have reached the next to next to next to last stop with the top 20 closers for 2010 fantasy baseball.  These top 20 closers are different than all of the other rankings.  The closers on the top of this list you should not draft and there are closers that aren’t on this list that you should be targeting.  Shortly there will be a list of every team’s closer and setup man.  The projections are also a bit wonky since you can’t predict saves.  It’s a fool’s errand.  If fool’s errand means what I think it does.  Some well-known projectionists (not the pimply kid unspooling The Blind Side at your local drive-in who somehow gets the ladies) don’t even attempt to predict saves.  Saves come down to opportunity.  This is yet another reason why you shouldn’t draft the top guys.  Nevertheless, my projections are listed along with where I see tiers starting and stopping.  Anyway, here’s the top 20 closers for 2010 fantasy baseball:

1. Joe Nathan – This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here until Broxton.  I call this tier, “These guys will be awesome.  Don’t own them.”  Commandment number one — SAGNOF.  In this case, it’s Saves Ain’t Got No Face.  Means that if Jose Mesa makes a comeback for the Nationals and he’s getting saves, he’s worth owning.  Wherever saves are coming from, they’re good saves.  We do not discriminate.  So why pay for Nathan when there’s, say, Jose Valverde?  (To be continued in Papelbon’s blurb)  2010 Projections:  4-2/1.95/.95/80, 45 saves

2. Jonathan Papelbon – Because, in the end, all you care about is saves.  Sure, a closer with a great ERA and WHIP can help bring down your overall ratios, but unless your luck is terrible you’re not going to have 4 Lidges on your staff.  Besides one decent starter can outweigh the damage of a Matt Capps or Qualls.  Here’s one example where I owned Lidge last year.  (Continued in the Rivera blurb.) 2010 Projections:  2-1/2.05/1.00/75, 45 saves

3. Mariano Rivera – I drafted Lidge and Heath Bell and grabbed Wolf off of waivers.  (This was a 16 team ‘pert league so it was doable in your league too.)  In their combined 342 2/3 innings, I got a 3.54 ERA.  That’s not killing your team.  Sure, if I didn’t have Lidge, it would’ve been better, but even the worst closers aren’t that bad overall.   2010 Projections: 4-1/2.15/1.00/70, 42 saves

4. Jonathan Broxton – His splits were terrible (for his pants), but I think Broxton will be just fine and, frankly, I’m not too concerned because he strikes out so many guys.  2010 Projections: 5-4/2.75/1.05/100, 40 saves

5. Heath Bell – This tier goes from here to the end of the list.  I call this tier, “I need to get 120 saves total to compete, so I’m grabbing as much value as I can.”  As for Bell, maybe it’s the lack of a decent set-up man, maybe it’s the home park, but Bell instills a lot of confidence.  (We should’ve all seen this coming the moment the Mets traded him away for a mint condition Gregg Jefferies rookie card and decided to pay K-Rod 16 billion.)  2010 Projections: 2-3/2.85/1.10/75, 40 saves

6. Carlos Marmol – “Grey, would you please introduce yourself to the group?”  “My name is Grey Albright and I’m a K addict.  Oh, and are there any more crullers?”  2010 Projections: 4-3/3.15/1.30/100, 38 saves

7. Francisco Rodriguez – I had a dilemma ranking K-Rod.  I think he’ll be fine for 40 saves and good enough peripherals, but he always worries me.  Not to mention his K-rate.  What’s up with 12 K/9, 10.1 K/9 and 9.7 K/9 in the last three years?  He should be fine in 2010, but I wouldn’t be surprised in a few years if he becomes iffy as he reaches his 30th birthday.  2010 Projections:  5-2/3.10/1.30/70, 40 saves

8. Joakim Soria – I worry when I see he’s being drafted on average before the 100th pick overall.  Is Soria great?  No doubt, Gwen.  But he still had shoulder issues last year and he’s on the Royals.  2010 Projections: 4-3/2.75/1.12/75, 32 saves

9. David Aardsma – To think I once thought it was a harbinger of doom that you couldn’t spell Aardsma without Double-A.  2010 Projections:  5-3/3.00/1.20/75, 35 saves

10. Jose Valverde – Do I think the Tigers needed The JoVa?  N to the izzo O.  But if he’s healthy, he gets the job done.  He works.  2010 Projections: 4-4/3.15/1.10/70, 35 saves

11. Brian Wilson – Here’s what I said in October, “What I (think) I notice is Wilson is rarely a guy that seems like a sure thing.  I say (think) because it might just be the games I watch.  So this sent me looking at all of the games he closed in 2009.  What I found is my (thought) was correct.  He only recorded 11 three up, three down saves out of 38.  To give you some perspective, Franklin had 14.  Though Wilson was flat-out dominate in the 2nd half (1.64 ERA).”  And that’s me quoting me!  2010 Projections:  4-4/3.35/1.20/75, 37 saves

12. Francisco Cordero – This has nothing to do with Francisco, but whatever happened to Chad Cordero?  First Dontrelle, then Shawn Chacon then Chad Cordero… What a bunch of flat-billed pitchypusses.  F-Cord had a bit of a lucky season last year, but he’s still a lock for 35 saves thereabouts.  BTW, if anyone ever says thereabouts in real life, punch them in their nose.  2010 Projections: 3-5/3.45/1.32/60, 35 saves

13. Huston Street – Street can easily out pitch some of the names above him on this list, but I don’t trust him to stay healthy.  2010 Projections:  3-2/2.85/1.00/55, 25 saves

14. Rafael Soriano – When he pitches, he’s lights out.  The only problem is he has a lot of guys to step in for him when he gets injured.  Could be the number one ranked closer at the end of the year or could be injured in May and lose the job to J.P. Wheelerfour.  2010 Projections: 2-4/2.95/1.05/70, 25 saves

15. Billy Wagner – Wagner seems like a perfect fit for a manager like Bobby Cox.  An Old Boy’s Club, so to speak.  Or not to speak, but to read.  If Wagner can stay healthy, I could see him easily getting to 35 saves.  2010 Projections:  4-3/3.00/1.15/60, 30 saves

16. Brian Fuentes – I have a feeling that the Fuentes/Rodney shituation is going to get worse before it gets better.  The first closer I see losing their job is Bailey, but the second is Fuentes.  2010 Projections:  2-6/4.00/1.35/45, 32 saves

17. Andrew Bailey – Yes, I have Bailey ranked lower than most other ‘perts.  Bailey is great so don’t take this the wrong way, but if he pitches poorly in April he’ll be replaced quicker than you could say, “Wait, I took Bailey as my first closer!”  2010 Projections: 2-3/3.20/1.14/70, 25 saves

18. Ryan Franklin – Probably everyone’s favorite to lose the job first, and it could happen.  Only reassurance I can give you is Tony LaDrunkass trusts in his vets.  2010 Projections:  4-2/3.75/1.25/40, 30 saves

19. Leo Nunez – I know you worry about Nunez, but check out some of the cheap schmohawk closers that have succeeded for the Marlins — Kevin Gregg, Lindstrom, Borowoski and Todd Jones.  A veritable who’s who of what’s-his-faces.  2010 Projections:  2-5/4.00/1.28/60, 32 saves

20. Frank Francisco – This low because he was so frustrating to own last year.  He’s the closer–No, C.J. Wilson is.  He’s closing–No, Wilson still is.  He’s closing– Oh, forget it.  2010 Projections:  3-3/3.95/1.24/50, 25 saves

After the top 20 closers for 2010 fantasy baseball, there’s lots of names, but these stand out:

Ryan Madson/Brad Lidge – Lidge is aiming to be ready for the start of the season, but, after last year, Lidge can’t get nearly as many chances to screw up.  Madson hasn’t been great either as a closer so don’t overrate him.  The Phils also brought in Danys Baez to suck.  Madson could get 40 saves, Lidge could get 40 saves, Danys Baez… Well, I won’t go that far.  This could get very ugly or pay huge dividends.  Madson’s 2010 Projections:  6-3/3.75/1.24/80, 18 saves; Lidge’s 2010 Projections:  3-4/4.25/1.34/55, 24 saves

Matt Capps – Yeah, he’s the Nats closer, but whatevs.  I could’ve listed any closer in this last spot and that’s the point.  If a guy is getting saves, you draft them.  I don’t care if your momma’s getting saves, I’m drafting her.  Or worse, Kevin Gregg.  2010 Projections:  Saves

  1. Steve says:
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    No sign of Jenks? Or does he not, as of now, have a job?
    And it’s possibly just as well we have not met, Grey, for I fear you would have punched me in the nose.
    But c’mon. Thereabouts is a mere trifle. Empowering is a far more serious crime.

  2. AdamK says:
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    Man, was that Gregg Jefferies the shit or what? a .500 batting average in 6 at bats. What coulda been.

  3. Real Tom says:
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    those marmol predictions look a tad high. but I agree, he’s pretty damn valuable.

  4. Tony says:
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    Grey the whole mariano rivera blurb said nothing about mariano rivera? haha…. you didn’t wanna talk about holding the bag on him when the lights go out? (i think he’s a robot)

  5. Jenks, Hoffman, Mike Gonzalez, etc. There’s more than 20 closers in MLB so there’s going to be guys not on the list, boyos.

    SAGNOF. If they’re closing, pick them. If not, cut them loose. Duh.

  6. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    A word of counterintuitive caution:

    As longtime readers know, I am a vocal proponent of SAGNOF, Junky Closers, etc. — so much so that I wrote a long post last year on the very subject. (Google it!)

    Last season, I did my usual thing, looking for closers on bad teams and late-round value. I came out of the draft with Matt Capps, Frank-Frank, Chris Ray (a trendy pick out of the Os camp), and Kevin Gregg. A decent haul.

    Luck be bad. Capps be sucking. Frank-Frank — see above. Gregg got the Cubs job, but is terrible, so I traded him, thinking “SAGNOF!”

    Trouble was, I either SAGNOFified my whole league, or last year was just a bad year, because the pickings were brutal and slim. Partly BECAUSE so many closer spots were fluid, every next-in-line set-up man was snatched up immediately.

    I managed to limp to 108 saves (3rd place) despite having only two guys w/ over 20 saves (Crapps and Nunez). I went through every Frasor, Jim Johnson, and Madson I could scramble for. IT WAS UGLY MY CHILDREN. And my WHIP and ERA did indeed take a ballistic beating all year.

    So it is possible to be really unlucky/unhappy. I can’t pretend I didn’t have moments of wishing I’d drafted Nathan in the 5th instead of, say, ALEXEI NOODLENUTS RAMIREZ.

    I wouldn’t draft a top closer over a big bat but I would consider it now, over an overhyped MI or some other reach.

  7. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    Moral of the story: Know your league. If its lazy dudes with slow trigger finges, you can SAGNOF your way to happiness. But if its predators who sniff out Jason Frasor’s jock before you wake up in the morning, caveat SAGNOF.

  8. Rabbit says:
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    @Baron Von Vulturewins: “Moral of the story: Know your league.”

    I think that piece of Delphic advice is the most important overall rule for determining how to apply the various other pieces of advice you find here. That, coupled with “Zig when the other guys are zagging” (or is it Zag when the other guys are zigging”?) are the keys. My league too has a bunch of guys who adhere to the SAGNOF mantra, and they love to get The Next Big Thing first, so I usually make sure I get an established, un-sexy top-ish tier closer (Mariano the past couple years) to be my foundation for saves. The idea that saves are easily to be had on the waiver wire has clearly made the rounds of fantasy baseballers who are paying any attention, so I find it fairly competitive to pick up those newly-named closers.

    Grey, given that you went up to 80 with SPs, any chance you might give us another 10 or 15 ranking on the closers? For those of us in 12 or 15 team leagues where you want to have 2 or 3 closers on your roster, that would be muchly helpful. As Oliver said, “Please, sir, may I have s’more?” (Not sure why a Dickensian orphan would want a S’more when they hadn’t even been invented yet, but whatever.)

  9. mc serch says:
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    @Baron Von Vulturewins: And here I was having such a great morning until you mentioned Alexei Ramirez, who I also drafted in the 5th last year and regretted it for the next 6 months.

  10. RGP says:
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    if bailey faulters, who gets first shot? Wuertz?

  11. Tony says:
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    REYES GETTING HYPED ON ESPN… over 300 comments, he’s swearing he’s going to blow the doors off it this year, awesome… i’ll guarantee by March he’s going at the TURN in drafts. If not earlier. I still wouldn’t invest this year. He’ll think he’s superman and in May he blows out his hammy again….

  12. Ian says:
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    I would easily put Hoffman in the top 20. Low 3 ERA? check. Low WHIP? check. Possibility of 35 saves? check. Other than his age, what’s not to like over schmo’s like Frankcisco and Madge?

  13. big o says:
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    gregg lands a one-year deal in toronto , of all places .
    (you can relax now , eddy) .
    according to jon heymen of s.i.com , though not , as of yet , guaranteed the closer job , this makes gregg the front-runner (over frasor) .
    the deal was inked for 2.75 mil

  14. Frank Rizzo says:
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    Grey……Tiger fan here……can you explain why you think the Tigers didn’t need to get Valverde? Did you think they should have kept Rodney? As a Tiger fan, I like the move myself.

  15. JoeC says:
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    My main league just expanded to 13 teams. We have 9 pitching slots, with a minimum of 2 of those having to be filled by RPs. Traditionally, it takes around 90 or so Saves to place highly in that category, which means running three closers all year.

    30 teams in the major leagues with 30 closers and 13 teams in my league with 39 closer roster spots. See a problem here? And my league is one of those leagues where people act lightning-quick when new closers emerge (although it should help that, this year, last year’s league winner actually has a job. Go economy!).

    Therefore, my plan is to reverse what I’ve been doing all these years and to pick at least 2 closers in the draft. And most likely, since closers go fairly fast in my league, by Round 12. God help me, but I believe it has to be done. Bat-shizz crazy?

  16. AdamH says:
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    J.P. Wheelerfour. HA! Thats great.

    Realistically, in a 12 team 5×5 league, what round would it take for the top tier to drop to before you would consider drafting them?

  17. Cain Fan says:
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    Grey, in my keeper league each team (10 teams) keeps 8 keepers. We value keepers similarly to you and accordingly none will be kept. Based on that when would you advise grabbing an elite keeper? Or do you think it is still better to wait? Thanks!

  18. Eddy says:
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    @big o:
    what great news to wake up to!!!!

    And just to give you razzballers a tidbit, I’ve been getting away
    in EVERY SINGLE mock draft by drafting Octavio Dotel in the last round. Perhaps I just screwed myself over in the RCL, but I know for my other leagues that’s value. I forgot his k/9 but it’s over 10 I believe.

    And Grey, when that list of teams with their corresponding closers comes out, would it be too much trouble to list them in order from best to worst?kind of like your “Closer Look” blog. I find myself referring to that often when I mock.

  19. Mikey boy324 says:
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    Grey realisticly what closer do you see yourself choosing as your first closer?

  20. Cain Fan says:
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    BTW wouldnt the obvious Rays setup logjam be JP FourWheeler. Yes i understand four is at the end but it sounds so much cooler.

  21. really the real Tom, for real says:
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    Grey, I am in a H2H league with a 7 inning minimum per week. Six pitching categories are w, k’s, whip, era, net saves and obpa(I know a wierd stat but we wanted ops for hitting and needed a % stat to counter balance) There is a guy in my league who is obsessed with the idea of trying to get all good closers and just start them and make his 7 innings and win 4 categories. It is a keeper and he has k-rod, Mo and paps. Should I try and convince him it is a great strategy, and to keep those guys at the expense of some good hitters? He is basically a d*uche who says fantasy baseball is just a time killer til the real season, fantasy football, comes around. Would love to see him fail miserably! Is this ethical?

  22. Tony says:
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    @really the real Tom, for real: very ethical… i whisper things in peoples ears from my league all the time! How is a guy starting a bunch of closers going to win in that league? He Won’t/shouldn’t win WINS or K’s and if one closer gets beat up for say 4 runs his whole week is BLOWN…. ? IDK is he starting like one starter per week? Thats such a weird innings minimum, i would look into changing that… In my 12 team H2H league we set ours at 32 and we’ve debated upping that a bit. It MAKES owners have to throw some starters, even if you’re banking on 6 innings per start you’d need 4-5 starters thrown per week PLUS some relief innings…. 7 is kinda strange, maybe more strange than obpa, haha….

  23. JoeC says:
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    @really the real Tom, for real: There is no ethics problem with encouraging your fellow league members to pursue incorrect strategies, especially when it was their idea all along. And most especially if they’re a douche… I say, encourage away!

  24. really the real Tom, for real says:
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    @Tony: We have actually had the opposite debate in our league in terms of innings pitched. Some people want to put a cap on it to stop the streaming/H balling(named after one member who introduced this trend to the league).

  25. airlifting says:
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    david aardsma has about five years of bad before his one year of good. given the volitile nature of a) pitching and b) relievers, i again think it’s bat shit crazy to rank david aardsma as high as he is.

    bobby jenks’ HR/FB skyrocketed from 3.8% in ’07 and 5.8% in ’08 to 17.0% in ’09. seems pretty likely that will drop back down to his career avg of 9.6%. HRs were jenks’ problem last year while losing no velocity. nothing suggests this issue wasn’t merely a fluke.

    every projection system except Marcel (which simply uses three year averages, most recent weighted more), projects jenks with a FIP below 3.73. every projection system projects an ERA below 3.88.

    nunez, franklin, and fuentes all above jenks? crazy talk, my friend.

  26. really the real Tom, for real says:
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    @JoeC: I know there is no real ethics problem. I just like to see my words in print on a legit website! My fear is it backfiring on me. This guy had some weird magic touch last year. Drafts Ibanez (with a little nudge form yours truly because I was next and wanted Pence) and the guy goes off. Takes Jason Bartlett, I laugh, then Bartlett turns into Jeter. The kicker is I pick Justin Upton off waivers, trade him to this guy for Mag pipes literally the day Upton goes off!

  27. JoeC says:
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    @airlifting: The problem I see with Jenks is his durability. His innings pitched has gone down 4 years in a row (2005 – 80 IP, 2006 – 69 IP, 2007 – 65 IP, 2008 – 62 IP, 2009 – 53 IP). That’s an unwholesome trend for a fat man! :)

    However, living here in Seattle, I watched Aardsma a lot. He was shaky-McShakester, although he did get the job done. I’m not ready to sell the farm that he’ll hold it all together this year. In short, I’m avoiding him this year. But that doesn’t mean I’m taking Jenks over him. I’m avoiding Jenks too. I want a sure thing. Yes, I was talking about closers. I also want a flying car and Jessica Alba to make me breakfast.

  28. JoeC says:
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    @really the real Tom, for real: “Mag pipes” = Magglio Ordonez? If so, why would you ever make that trade? You have no one but yourself to blame, sir!

  29. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Steve: Jenks had a bad year, has capable guys behind him and Ozzie’s loco, but Jenks is still the closer. I empower you to draft him.

    @AdamK: Best first 6 at-bats ever.

    @Tony: Good closers are boring to talk about. He’s fine yadda yadda yadda.

    @Baron Von Vulturewins: Noodlenuts was a crazy, limp man posing as a spry one. You were unlucky, but still finished third in saves. That’s making the point, no?

    @Rabbit: There will be a list of all closers coming in the next day or so.

    @RGP: Yeah, or Ziegler.

    @Tony: I liked him a month ago, hope he stays in the low 20s by draft day.

    @big o: Thanks for the heads up, O.

    @Frank Rizzo: I’m under the belief that closers can be made, no reason to buy them. See poor starters who have had good seasons/careers as closers. Zumaya and Perry would’ve been fine.

    @AdamH: I took K-Rod in the ninth in a mock, that’s about where a closer would have to be for me to take him. Around the ninth.

    @Cain Fan: Not following your keeper question. Fourwheeler does sound better, but as you said, not totally accurate.

    @really the real Tom, for real: You can fill his head with whatever, but technically he might not do that bad. H2H can be gamed pretty bad when it has no max innings requirement (or so low as in your league).

  30. really the real Tom, for real says:
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    @JoeC: It was early! It was a good deal for me I swear!

  31. matthole says:
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    @Grey: which rd do u start taking or atleast think about taking a closer.

  32. Billy says:
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    Where does everyone see Carlos Gonzalez falling in drafts? im in a 12 team h2h league and i want him but dont want to overpay…

  33. nate marcum says:
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    Grey,

    12 team 5×5 auction (12 person keeper) league ($50 cap) 9 pitcher spots. In this league, it is a draft and set league, no transactions unless placed on DL or demoted. Trades are allowed though.

    I have Nolasco $1.10, Jar-Jar .30, David Price .90, and Broxton 1.10. Also have Maine for .01 (don’t think I will keep him though).

    My question to you is the following…of the remaining 5 spots, how many should I fill with other closers. 107 was the top last year and coincidently 107 won the year before. should I spend the $$ and get Nathan and feel comfy with 75+ saves with the two of them and load up on SP, or go with the Dotel’s of the world for cheap, representing SAGNOF, but concerned that if they lose their job, all I have is a middle reliever?

  34. Tony says:
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    @really the real Tom, for real: I understand what you’re saying about streaming. In my H2H league its a 10×10 league, i know wild… so basically we have a 32 inning minimum. Guys have tried to stream, throw em all week long, sure they win K’s, WINS (usually), but they’ll lose walks, ERA, and probbaly whip every week…. we also count LOSSES, so sure he’s taking wins, but i guarantee that guys losing the losses category, another key stat we started last year was QUALITY STARTS, great stat, you then have to throw starters to take that cat. So with our league you have to run 4-5 SOLID sp’s or best matchups out there and hope they do well, if they do and you get your 32 innings in or more you can BENCH them the rest of the week…. say you get BLOWN up at some point then you can just throw them all and try and salvage whatever you can that week. I like it this way because basically if you can get your innings in with solid stats you’re going to dominate, one guy gets torched you might still be alright, if the other owners pitching has a guy get torched then you’re back to even and you can kinda SEE WHAT HE DOES…. makes every week back and forth down to sunday most of the time…. we’ve had guys try and employ the ALMOST ALL CLOSERS strategy and sure it works, but they dont log many innings at once, maybe 1 to 2 and if they get bombed say Lidge gives up 6, that just EFFF’s your week, you better throw some starters then to balance that back out…. pitching has become valuable again in our league.

    @Billy: I’ve seen cargo going from the 8-10th, with the 9th being about normal. I think if you’re taking him before the 9th in a 12 teamer you might be overpaying…. especially with the Outfield Cluster F in COL. He should get the PT but nothing is ever guaranteed.

  35. Cain Fan says:
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    @grey sorry for the confusion. Basically what I am saying is that in our keeper league every reliever will be available starting at the 9th round (1st round after keepers). In that situation is there sufficient value to pick a top closer or would you still wait and feed on the lesser ones?

  36. airlifting says:
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    @JoeC: we’re not talking about a starter, though. relief pitching is about opportunities…or at least what managers view as opportunities. that’s exacerbated for closers. during his 69ip year in 2006, he was used more than one inning 15 times. that’s a lot. in each subsequent year? 5, 6, and 5.

    he’s also seen a precipitious drop in his save chances in recent years; 45 in ’06 and 46 in ’07 to 34 in ’08 and 35 in ’09. closers inherently pitch more innings when they have more save chances. the white sox simply haven’t been good enough to produce those opportunities.

    nothing in his number says he’s suddenly lost it. his wFB was negative last year, but that’s an outlier from years past. same goes for his GB%, HR/FB, etc. i’m not saying i’d take him over aardsma, but i think they’re a lot closer than most people think.

  37. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @matthole: Around the 8th round. End of the top 100.

    @nate marcum: How much does a Ntahan go for in your league? Depending on that answer, I’d probably just go with two closers.

    @Cain Fan: Depends what your team looks like, who’s available besides closers, but I wouldn’t probably take a closer for a round or two. There’s got to be some decent value going back into the draft.

  38. I think you’re selling Jenks, Bailey, and Street short. I’d take the last two over K-Rod, Aardsma, and Marmol myself. Props on putting Valverde in the Top Ten where he belongs though.

  39. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Jason Collette: Hey, I also shorted Apple stock at $20 in 1998, so you never know. Down with Bailey and the iPod.

  40. airlifting says:
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    @Grey: iPad*

  41. Steve says:
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    @Grey: In the 18th round or thereabouts?

  42. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @airlifting: No, I meant the iPod. There’s still hope it doesn’t work out, right?

    @Steve: Sure, and consider your nose punched.

  43. really the real Tom, for real says:
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    @MrPittsSox: No BJ, nothing that romantic.

  44. Baron Von Vulturewins

    Baron Von Vulturewins says:
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    @Grey: Only because I made it an insane point of pride to finish near the top in saves even as my whole team went down. It’s like deciding you’re going to lose five pounds while you’re on the Hindenberg.

    I don’t have the heart/stomache to run the actual numbers, but I do think Crapps — or, rather, Crapps x 4 — sank me in ERA and WHIP. One SAGNOFer won’t, but four — or some dribbling parade of schmoes — just might.

  45. Eddy says:
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    Grey it’s been a while since we’ve had a schmohawk post, you got any planned on the horizon?

  46. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Baron Von Vulturewins: Yeah, 4 out of 4 craptoads is bad luck. But if you grab Lidge, Jenks, Nathan and Dotel, you may have 4 outstanding closers. Very unpredictable those closers, them.

    @Eddy: Yeah, they’re in the works. Just had to get through these rankings posts.

  47. nate marcum says:
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    @Grey: I guess it all depends on when the player is up for bid. For instance, we randomly select each of the MLB teams and go down the opening day rosters of the team as they were drawn. (minus keepers, obviously) The draft is after the season starts due to the rules stating that it must be a player on the opening day roster.

    With so many keepers, the price of the top tier players is pretty ridiculous. I would guesstimate that Nathan would go for around $5, or 10% of total cap. I guess another good possibility is how I got Broxton…draft a middle reliever that I can feel comfortable in knowing he will help lower whip, era, and throw in a couple junk w’s with a chance of closing the next year…Maybe Bard in Boston? maybe motte in StL? any suggestions?

  48. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @nate marcum: That worked out with Broxton, but it’s pretty ballsy move to take an MR when you can’t switch out guys without a DL move or demotion. I’d just draft a donkeycorn to go with Broxton and hope for the best. Then if you can sneak a brain freeze in for cheap, do that as well.

  49. nate marcum says:
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    @Grey: Thanks! I felt Broxton was helpful regardless if he got the job or not…hell, we had Wang that year and Broxton nearly k’d more than him. I am thinking taking a shot at marmol and take the whip hit all the while racking up K’s.

    Listen, er read, this though…Wandy…taken. Stewart….taken. Sanchez…taken. Ubaldo…taken.

    no Razzleepers to be had…..guess I will just have to see who you suggest next.

  50. GTS says:
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    Grey – I’m in a 10-team league with 3 starting closer spots (daily lineup league) 6×5 (extra OBP for hitting). I feel like I need to spend extra money to get one of the top closers such as Joe Nathan in order to do well. Last year I drafted Nathan, F-Cord, and danced around with my 3rd (started with Matt Crapps). Anyway, I feel like I need at least one stud instead of a handful of mediocre. Thoughts?

  51. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @GTS: In a ten team league, there’s less of a need for a top closer.

  52. Pat says:
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    Your Matt Capps and all other SAGNOF closers’ prediction:

    ‘2010 Projections: Saves’

    Almost made me fall off my office chair! Thanks Grey

  53. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:
    So let’s say you currently have an OF drafted of Lind, Granderson, and Nelson Cruz. The 10th or 11th round comes up ad both Jay Bruce and CarGo are on the board. Who do you pick?

  54. bostonaccent says:
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    @GTS: Quick roundup of 2009 (124 pitchers with saves…)

    1 save (46), 2 saves (22)
    Some of these relievers gave you a freebie, like Jason Bulger 6-1/3.56/1.16/68/1, and some just left a dollop of save on their turd season (thanks Micah Owings).

    3-9 saves (19)
    Thornton, Hughes, Wuertz, oh my! These guys beat having to roster Guthrie or Cahill. Even the dregs in this group were giving you a few Ks, even if they tied you to the post.

    10+ saves (37)
    Grey’s preseason top 20 were all here somewhere, unless their arms fell off (Ryan, Devine). But the 25+ club also had Franklin, Aardsma, Hoffman, Rodney, Street, Soriano, Bailey, Nunez and Frank-Frank.
    Wait another round. Take another bat.

  55. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Pat: Hehe

    @Eddy: Neither? Bruce.

  56. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:
    So I assume you’re not a fan of the hype building up around these two?

  57. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @Eddy: Huh? I wrote a sleeper post about both. You read what I said in their blurbs when I ranked them. I just don’t think that outfield needs either. Take Ibanez and take a sleeper somewhere else. Or a Stubbs type way later in like the last round. Lind and and Cruz already have minor risk, you don’t need Bruce or CarGo too.

  58. Eddy says:
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    @Grey:
    All right I get what you’re saying.

  59. cubbies299 says:
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    In the past week, my league-mate has exploited piss-poor owners in the league to acquire Kinsler, Miguel Cabera to go along with his current assured #1 pick of Hanley. He’s traded irrelevant 8th and 9th rounders and keepers to secure these trade ups. I’m tired of coming home scared every day that this guy’s fucked up the league more… Should I just leave it? IT’s a pretty long tenured le

  60. cubbies299 says:
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    In the past week, my league-mate has exploited piss-poor owners in the league to acquire Kinsler, Miguel Cabera to go along with his current assured #1 pick of Hanley. He’s traded irrelevant 8th and 9th rounders and keepers to secure these trade ups. I’m tired of coming home scared every day that this guy’s fucked up the league more… Should I just leave it? IT’s a pretty long tenured league

  61. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @cubbies299: If it’s long tenured why are other owners so bad at trading to give away those guys?

  62. cubbies299 says:
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    @Grey: I think some people got better as the league went on whereas some guys just stayed the same or got worse… Now the strong prey on the yadda yadda natural selection BS. Either way, the league is nice for a lot of reasons, except that shiz like this is exasperating. By the by, is there any way you trade the royal Pujols and Fcord for Braun and Ubaldo

  63. Grey

    Grey says:
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    @cubbies299: Doesn’t seem like a trade worth making.

  64. brett says:
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    @cubbies299: Either leave, talk some sense into your league mates or do the same thing that guy’s doing. If nobody wants to listen when you complain about ethics, consider it fair game and try to one up him.

  65. cubbies299 says:
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    @Grey: What if it were just Pujols for Ubaldo/Braun? I already have Votto at 1B, Stewart @ 2B, and Wright @ 3B with an outfield of Quentin/Bruce. Beckett’s already kept, so it’s not like my staff’s in trouble. Iuno, I think I should stay Pujols to anchor the possible avg issues of Stewart, bruce, and quentin

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