The top 10 and 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball are in the bag, along with the top 20 catchers. Today, Razzballers, we look at the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball. All this shizz can be found under the 2010 Fantasy Baseball rankings. This top 20 list of 1st basemen is the opposite of the catchers, it is bursting at the seams like you at a Hometown Buffet. Speaking of gorging yourself, as I mentioned elsewhere, I want a top 1st baseman on my team in 2010. Sure, the list is deep, but 10 of these guys will probably be gone by the 4th round. Do you really want to go to battle with, say, Derrek Lee when someone else has, say, Ryan Howard? I don’t. I want to be one of the teams with a top 1st baseman. This list will get additional 1st basemen added to it in the way of sleeper posts like I added Kendry Morales last year. As with the other rankings, the first basemen are broken up into tiers with my projections included. Anyway, here’s the top 20 1st basemen for 2010 fantasy baseball:
1. Albert Pujols – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Albert Pujols’s projections.
2. Mark Teixeira – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Mark Teixeira’s projections.
3. Miguel Cabrera – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Miguel Cabrera’s projections.
4. Prince Fielder – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Prince Fielder’s projections.
5. Ryan Howard – See the top 10 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Mark Teixeira’s projections.
6. Adrian Gonzalez – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Adrian Gonzalez’s projections.
7. Justin Morneau – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here to Reynolds. I call this tier, “Probably as good as the last tier, but their track record’s a little wonky.” I actually like Morneau this year. I adverb’d my like because I haven’t liked him in a while. Probably not since I started this time suck blog. Why the sudden admiration? Because I feel like the world has suddenly cooled on him, making him more affordable in drafts. Of course, my love for him goes in the deep fryer if his back is giving him issues in spring training. 2010 Projections: 95/32/110/.290
8. Kevin Youkilis – Youuuuuuk’s production is very predictable. In a game where players fluctuate all over the place, there’s value in that predictability. 2010 Projections: 95/27/105/.295/5
9. Mark Reynolds – See the top 20 for 2010 fantasy baseball post for Mark Reynolds’s projections.
10. Joey Votto – This is a new tier. This tier is just Votto. I call this tier, “Yes, please.” Here I went over my Votto fantasy for 2010. 2010 Projections: 90/30/105/.305/7
11. Victor Martinez – This is a new tier. This tier goes until Lee. I call this tier, “Caveats.” The caveat with V-Mart is he could be rested more than the usual first baseman since he’ll be catching on most days. See the top 20 catchers for 2010 fantasy baseball for Victor Martinez’s projections.
12. Pablo Sandoval – It’s hard to not like a chubby guy who goes by the nickname, Kung Fu Panda. Who doesn’t love pandas? It’s unpatriotic (in China). I love pandas so much I want a freakin’ panda dog. If I had a kid, I’m dye the kid to look like a panda. So, I do like Pablo Sandoval. But there’s caveats. He’s not really a home run hitter. It would not shock me to see him hit 22 homers in 2010. Also, his average last year looks to be on the high side. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a .300 average instead of .330. I like him, just be careful what you’re expecting. (Obviously at 3rd base, he’s more enticing.) 2010 Projections: 80/24/95/.315/4
13. Kendry Morales – I still like Kendry for 2010, but there’s some reason to believe 2009 was his career year. He’s more of a .285 hitter than a .305 hitter. I don’t entirely believe the power. He’s more of a 27-plus homer hitter than a 32-plus hitter. It might be quibbling, but if Kendry lands on the bottom of his potential, is he that different than Cuddyer? 2010 Projections: 80/28/100/.285/3
14. Adam Dunn - SAT question of the day. From 2006 to 2009, Adam Dunn hit .234, .264, .236, .267, respectively. In 2010, Adam Dunn will hit A) .238 B) 40 homers C) There is no C. 2010 Projections: 80/40/100/.250
15. Carlos Pena – Last year, Pena’s average was lower than it should’ve been. He’s still only a .250 hitter. .250 hitters can hit .220 again if the ball doesn’t bounce like it should. Pena also led the AL in homers. 2010 Projections: 95/37/100/.250
16. Derrek Lee – Derrek Lee had the highest fly ball percentage of his career last year. Okay, hotshot, now you have to ask yourself, do you think he’s going to continue this in 2010 or do you think he’s going to revert to his career norms outside of 2009? 2010 Projections: 90/25/100/.295
17. Lance Berkman – Hmm… He hit 29 homers in his 2008 season when he was 32-years-old. At the age of 33, he hit 25. By the time he’s 40, he’s going to be Juan Pierre. I wouldn’t expect 30 homers just because you and your brother, Jimbo, grew up watching Berkman hit 30 bombs a year. Before Canseco started sticking suckas with needles, it was pretty normal to see a decline in players Berkman’s age. 2010 Projections: 70/23/85/.285/3
18. Billy Butler – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Davis. I call this tier, “Your last chance for some upside, but these guys aren’t slam dunks.” Last year he hit 51 doubles. Have you seen the moobs on this guy? He has to hit a few more of those doubles for homers in 2010, doesn’t he? I like to think so. Though I have noticed something of late. He seems to be turning into a sleeper sell, like Chris Davis last year. Butler still hits lots of ground balls and he needed 672 plate appearances for 21 homers last year. Don’t go crazy with yourself expecting the world from Butler. He may end up overrated even if I like him to an extent. 2010 Projections: 85/25/100/.295
19. Garrett Jones – He’s just so old for a 2nd year player that it’s hard to get fully behind him. He reminds me of Ludwick. Big splash his rookie year then a fade in the 2nd year. He obviously could go 30/10, but he can also get exploited over a full season and end up being waiver fodder. Caveat emptor, for those reading in Latin America. 2010 Projections: 65/25/80/.255/12
20. Chris Davis – Read all about him in my Chris Davis sleeper post. 2010 Projections: 65/28/85/.255/7
21. Michael Cuddyer – This is a new tier. This tier goes from here until Loney. I call this tier, “I hope you’re sitting in an exit row.” Cuddyer is a 24 homer, .275 hitter. Last year was a career year…. And it’s not even that great of a career. Don’t pay for a career year the following season. 2010 Projections: 85/24/95/.275/5
22. Russell Branyan – Last year was nice, I really don’t see it happening again. And, if it does happen again from a power standpoint, I wouldn’t expect the average to even be as high as last year’s .251 mark. 2010 Projections: 60/22/70/.240
23. James Loney – It feels like every year Loney is ranked 20th with the promise of more. This year, I’m ranking him 20th and expecting 20th ranked production. Whether it’s his ground ball rate or mediocre power, I don’t know, but he’s not getting better. 2010 Projections: 75/15/85/.290/4
After the top 20, there’s lots of names, but two stand out:
Brandon Allen – I went over him in the Brandon Allen fantasy baseball outlook whosie-wiggers. Has 20 homer power to spare. Want someone that can surprise and move into the top 15 next year? Here ya go. UPDATE: LaRoche signed with the Diamondbacks. This is one of those signings where you know the club isn’t thinking, “Yeah! LaRoche makes us a playoff team!” Or, “Yeah! LaRoche puts bodies in the seats!” This is one of those moves where you don’t know what the club is thinking. Play the youngster! Alas, they’re not going to. They’re going to play LaRoche. Adam LaRoche’s 2010 Projections: 70/27/80/.265
Carlos Delgado – UPDATE: Out for four months.