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It’s that time again… Drop your drawers and do two laps around your office!  Not your underwear, I meant drop the two desk drawers you were holding and celebrate.  Oh, well, you’ll find another job in this economic climate; no problem!  Now before we get into the top 10 for 2013 fantasy baseball (though I imagine every single one of you has skipped this intro paragraph), I’m gonna lay some ground rules.  No talking.  Damn, I’m copying this from my University of Phoenix syllabus and it’s not translating as I had hoped.  Okay, here’s our fantasy baseball podcast.  Here’s where you follow us on Twitter.  Here’s where you follow us on Facebook.  Here’s our fantasy baseball player rater.  Here’s our fantasy baseball team name generator.  Here is all of our 2013 fantasy baseball rankings.  Here’s the position eligibility chart for 2013 fantasy baseball.  And here is a picture of my son.  What a punim!  You may not get all of those links in such a handy, easy-to-use format ever again this year, so make proper note.  Now my expositional half insists I breakdown some generalizations about these 2013 fantasy baseball rankings.  The 2013 fantasy baseball rankings will be an ever-evolving mass like the blob.  This fantasy baseball top 10 for 2013 list is as of right now and could potentially change with a big injury or Miguel Cabrera breaking a tooth on his maple bat as he tries to extract hops.  So while it is the 2013 fantasy baseball gospel, take it with a tablet of salt.  Tomorrow we will cover the rest of the top twenty for 2013 fantasy baseball, then we will go around the horn with a top 20 list for every position.  Then for pitchers and outfielders, I’ll turn the dial to 100.  Listed next to each player are my 2013 projections.  Did I consult with whoever else does projections?  It would be ignorant not to, but in the end they are my projections.  Players need 10 games at a position to get included in the positional rankings.  Finally, as with each list in the 2013 fantasy baseball rankings, I will be mentioning where I see tiers start and stop.  I look at tiers like this, if Miguel Cabrera and Ryan Braun are in the same tier, it doesn’t matter if one guy is ranked 1st and one guy is ranked 2nd, they’re both very close. It comes down to personal preference.  I would prefer the guy at number one better than the guy at two, but you do you, I’ll do me and let’s hope we don’t go blind.  Anyway, here’s the top 10 for 2013 fantasy baseball:

1. Miguel Cabrera – To those that don’t know (and none of you do), I recently moved.  Only about five minutes from where I used to be, so we’ll be sure to stay in touch!  So, in my new place, I’ve decided to decorate.  I’m going to hire a bunch of different artists to do portraits of me.  It will be up to them how they want to portray me.  If they simply want to focus on my mustache, then that’s their call.  I hope one asks to do a nude portrait of me with nothing but a serpent covering up my naughty bits.  I tell you this now, because I have nothing to say for Swiggy.  He was just the first Triple Crown winner since Yaz in 1967.   He’s awesome.  You don’t know this already?  This is the first tier.  This tier goes from here until Mike Trout.  I call this tier, “Miggy’s going to a picnic and he’s bringing the best for fantasy baseball.”  2013 projections: 110/39/124/.327/3

2. Ryan Braun – The top guy is someone who has struggled with alcohol, the second is a guy who was nearly suspended for drugs and the fourth guy made you feel like you were high.  It’s just like the golden days of baseball when Babe Ruth and Fatty Arbuckle were unscrewing their Coke bottles with vaginas and Ty Cobb was smoking opium with Eleanor Roosevelt and her lesbian friends.  (This is all according to J. Edgar Hoover’s secret files, so your “truth mileage” may vary.)  I could see Braun number one and Miggy number two, but I went with them this way because of position eligibility and I get worried that any year now Braun is going to revert to being a 15-steal guy rather than a 30-steal guy.  2013 projections: 105/34/116/.319/22

3. Andrew McCutchen – And just like that, my first curveball!  Due to this ranking, I plan on owning McCutchen in every league.  Unlike Braun and Miggy, The Dread Pirate is actually entering his prime.  Sure, his runs and RBIs might be a tad wonky due to the Pirates.  Clint Barmes can only do so much!  Or maybe that sentence meant to read, Clint Barmes can only do nothing.  Neverthehoo!  McCutchen has the speed to steal more than 20 bags, but he does need to figure out how to use said speed — his caught stealing percentage isn’t terrific.  I looked at our Player Rater from last year and I tried to figure out one guy that could be better this year after a top ten year in twenty after twelve.  McCutchen was the only one I saw.  The only trick will be him keeping his average above .290.  2013 Projections:  102/30/107/.295/27

4. Mike Trout – I’ve read a lot about how Trout just had a rookie year that we may never see again from a rookie.  Ain’t that right, boo?  True.  Something people are not saying is that we may never see another year like that from Trout.  His highest homer output in any pro season before was in Double-A when he hit 11 homers.  Granted, it was only in 91 games, but still.  Before he was called up, he only had one homer in Triple-A last year in 20 games.  His May, when he hit 5 homers and had a 15.6% HR/FB, looks doable.  His June with 3 homers and a 12.5% HR/FB is easy for him.  Like Trout shooting his kinfolk in a barrel.  His July with 10 homers and a 31.3% HR/FB is silly.  If he hits 41% fly balls all year as he did in July, he’s not going to hit 60 homers on the year.  What he will do is hit 25 homers and .270 or lower.  In 40 games in 2011 when he hit 40% fly balls, he hit .220.  He has top echelon speed.  He needs to hit line drives and ground balls with the occasional home run.  The 49 steals don’t look like a fluke.  He’s the fastest white boy I’ve seen since Jason Mewes stopped doing crank.  A 20-ish homer, 50-ish steal season is still very valuable.  2013 Projections:  108/19/102/.326/48

5. Robinson Cano – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here until Votto.  I call this tier, “This tier might not leave you in titters, but no one says titters who was born after 1912 so it doesn’t matter.” After drafting Cano (and other players in this tier), you may not find yourself lighting a cigarette and talking about how you never saw fireworks in the shape of watermelons before.  This tier is my attempt to add some stability into the top ten.  Some fantasy baseball ‘perts may try and add some “excitement” into their top ten with Buster Posey or Adrian Beltre.  These same ‘perts probably had Jacoby Ellsbury in their top ten last year.  Excitement is great if it’s not going to cost you your fantasy season.  If Cano has a bad season, he gets 28 homers, 100 runs, and 110 RBIs.  If Cano has a good season, he gets 32 homers, 110 runs and 120 RBIs.  Since 2nd base is hella shallow, as the kids would say in 2002, I’ll take reliable 30-ish homer power from Cano fifth.  2013 Projections:  105/30/110/.310/4

6. Albert Pujols – You’re not going to get a more miserable month from Pujols than what you got last April.  In his first 92 ABs of the season, he had zero homers, 4 RBIs and a .217 average.  And he still finished in the top 25 overall with 30 homers, 105 RBIs and a .285 average.  So, if he hits .250 with 3 homers in April, we don’t even blink twice about drafting Pujols.  BTW, if you can blink your Pujols even once, seek medical attention.  2013 Projections:  103/32/112/.297/7

7. Prince Fielder – His even/odd homer years continued in 2012.  In even years, his homers have been 28, 34, 32, 30.  In odd years:  50, 46, 38.  Unless your Garfield desk calender is in Jewish years, and you’re like, “Yo, happy 5773, Schlomo” it’s pretty clear we’re about to have a huge year from Prince.  Now, even if this fairly anecdotal reasoning doesn’t hold up, Prince is still good for 30 homers and nice counting stats.  2013 Projections:  94/39/117/.291/1

8. Joey Votto – Votto could be in a sub-section of this tier, if making a sub-section of make-believe tiers on a fantasy baseball blog didn’t scream someone needs a new hobby.  Sure, Votto didn’t have a huge 2012, but that was due to an injury.  Will he have a problem moving forward in 2013?  Maybe, but that’s why God invented running backwards.  Votto did admit that his knee was an issue for him down the stretch when he didn’t hit a homer in his last five weeks after he returned.  He’s 29 years old and should be fine with the offseason rest.  Even if he can’t power balls out at a 30+ homer pace, he’s a virtual lock for 100 runs, 100 RBIs, and a .320 average in a full season of at-bats.  I’ll take 25 homers with that.  2013 Projections:  104/25/110/.320/5

9. Giancarlo Stanton – This is a new tier.  This tier goes from here into the top 20 for 2013 fantasy baseball.  I call this tier, “I really like these guys.  Question marks be damned.”  Member how I said at the beginning of the last tier that you should go with safe even if it means less than exciting?  Well, Giancarlo and Upton may be exciting, but they’re also safer than you think.  I’ll explain.  Early on in 2012, here’s a few of things said on this blog in the comments.  “Grey, you really think Ryan Braun can produce without Prince Fielder in the lineup?  BTW, is your avatar actual size?”  I said, yes and yes.  Also heard last year, “I’m not touching McCutchen because of that lineup.  I’d much rather Giancarlo or Hanley.  Their lineup is stacked.  Now, do you apply John Frieda Extra-Sheen Mustache Conditioner before or after you shower?”  Here’s the thing, and thing is pretty big.  That’s what she said!  Huh?  The thing is, you don’t know what is going to happen with runs and RBIs beyond a clean-up hitter should get around 100-something RBIs and 90-something runs.  Maybe Juan Pierre will decide to steal 2nd 70 times and Giancarlo will knock in 120 RBIs.  Maybe Giancarlo will hit 45 solo homers and only score 52 runs all year.  Maybe they take down the center field sculpture of unicorn vomit, realize that was actually blocking a jetstream and Stanton hits 70 homers.  Maybe the dude who wrote up the Mayan calender in 12,000 B.C. had sloppy handwriting and meant 2013 for the apocalypse.  Forget maybes.  Stanton will hit 40+ homers, steal 7 bases and hit .275.  Let the counting stats figure themselves out.  2013 Projections:  92/45/110/.277/7

10. Justin Upton – Last year, he had the worst season you can imagine for him.  Unless your imagination also includes dwarfs.  That season was still 107/17/67/.280/18.  That was with a career low HR/FB%, which was coupled by a thumb injury that he needed fluid drained from in April.  He played through the injury, but not until August did it really start to feel better.  How do I know this?  He hit nine homers in August and September combined.  In the four months combined before that, he hit 8 homers.  In September alone, he hit 6 homers and .301.  Further, he was playing with a pad around his thumb for the majority of last season.  His thumb felt good enough in August to remove the pad.  When he removed the pad, he hit eight homers in his final 36 games.  Don’t make me say it again.  Okay, one more time.  He hit 8 homers in 36 games when his thumb finally was healed.  If you wanna draft for 2012, then draft Edwin Encarnacion.  If you wanna draft for 2013, draft Justin Upton.  Albright out.  Update: Albright back in.  After the above was written, Upton moved to be closer to his big brother in Atlanta.  This is like a Mitch Albom book.  B.J.’s schnauzer will now get a rare disease and the mutual love of the dog will bring the two Uptons together, which will be captured on a limited edition Topps baseball card.  The card will be in black and white and Gale Sayers will begin signing the card before motivational speeches.  Nothing changes from what I said pre-trade about Upton.  Chase Field is slightly better; his lineup will be better; Turner Field isn’t a bad park to hit in; the sight of his brother’s dirty underwears in his locker like when they were kids will motivate him.  It’s a nice story of brothers, the numbers won’t change much and I still like Upton a lot.  2013 Projections:  100/28/104/.284/19

  1. james d says:
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    Honestly the player blurbs mean more to me than the specific rankings. Time to start learning about players again!

    I find Upton over Kemp to be baffling. I guess you can justify Stanton tho given your strong feelings for HR?

    • james d says:
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      @james d:

      I say “baffling” because I’ll take what I see as a minimal health risk over a total lack of production risk any day. Imo the argument you used for Votto applies just as well to Kemp.

      • bossmanjunior says:
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        For all we know, Kemp could be in the same tier, which I have a feeling he might be. Like Grey said, players within tiers are interchangeable, just depends on personal preference.

        As for Upton, I could see Grey dropping him down the list if he’s traded to a less hitter friendly venue. As it stands, he plays in an offensive park but a shift to Safeco Field or whereever could put a dent in his value.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        @james d: Kemp couldn’t swing a bat until January… Votto had surgery last July and already returned… I don’t trust Kemp…

        • james d says:
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          @Grey: I guess it really does come down entirely to trust?

          Kemp (to my mind) turned a corner after Torre left and is now a swagger-filled player who works really hard to maximize his talent. If it’s physically possible to play well with his shoulder [stuff] then I’d figure he’ll do so. The Anti-Hanley!

          All that said, I see the argument now. Votto/Jupt had smaller injuries and are already healthy again. Kemp had shoulder shizz and started swinging a bat like last week.

          • Grey

            Grey says:
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            Yup… He just started swinging a bat…

            • Miguel says:
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              All that said, Justin Upton played 150 games last season and Kemp played 104, and still Kemp had better numbers. I’ll take an unhealthy Kemp over Upton any day. Upton also has an attitude problem that hasn’t helped him much either.

              • Grey

                Grey says:
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                I wouldn’t think too much of about attitude problems with projections…

              • @Miguel: @Miguel:

                There’s no ‘attitude problem’ per se with Upton, even the Dbacks brass doesn’t feel this. He plays very hard on the field, and very much wants to succeed and win games. Which is why everyone is puzzled he hasn’t done better. The local theory is #1) If anything, he is too focused on personal success. If he goes 0-4 but the team wins, he’s unhappy. I don’t really buy into it, I think the new GM just wants to ‘do things’, I’d keep him if it were my call. At the least, wait til a chance to sell high, not right now.

                • Travis G says:
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                  @Elijah: think about the upside if he goes to ATL now

  2. theearly90s says:
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    very interesting. I’m curious to see where Carlos Gonzalez ends up. I always liked your rankings more than other sources and I feel like Upton and Cargo could be a steal in some drafts this year.

  3. Wade says:
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    Remind the studio audience how to attribute AB totals to these projections? Rudy swayed me into using per-AB stats in projections, so 39 HR needs to be translated into “HR every 14.1 AB:. Thanks!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Wade: Full season of ABs unless noted…

      • Wade says:
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        @Grey: full season being 600 AB or does it vary from player to player? If looking back at 2012 AB total for player a valid gauge?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, that would provide a valid gauge…

    • Jay29 says:
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      @Wade: You’d want to use PA/HR wouldn’t you? AB/HR underratees free-swingers and rewards patient hitters with inflated power projections. Your projections on playing time, I assume, are based on expected DL time and lineup slot. That’s reflected in PA much more accurately than AB.

  4. JT says:
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    Best day ever. Thank you January Grey! I’m laughing with maniacal elation like your girl Josie on Top Chef.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @JT: Ha… No problem…

  5. Jamiehov says:
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    I’m not too surprised with Mccutchen at 3, you and Rudy loved him last yr but I am surprised with Pujols being so high. Didn’t you have Votto ahead of him before last season? If I draw the two pick in any leagues, the trout Braun decision will be very dificult

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Jamiehov: Pujols was before Votto last year…

  6. costaricanchata says:
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    has the RIV abandoned January Grey ?
    is the RIV , in actuality , the ghost of steve mcqueen ??

    in either case , someone should have reminded you that the blog was a hot mess .

    i have never found your rankings to be a hot mess .

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @costaricanchata: RIV makes an appearance in the rankings… I think he was in Antigua for a few months…

      • costaricanchata says:
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        @Grey:

        oops .
        sorry .
        meant to say that the bloB was a hot mess .

        • Steve says:
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          @costaricanchata: Was fully expecting you to take Hamilton there…

          • costaricanchata says:
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            @Steve:

            well , the 1st year i finished 14th out of 16 teams , and year 2 , i moved up into 12th place .
            so , i’m thinking of changing my draft strategy to picking guys whose last name begin with the letter ” H ” .
            can you help me out with some picks in subsequent rounds ?.
            was actually thinking of taking hamilton with the 14th pick , but felt harper would have been snatched up .@Steve:

  7. ScottyM says:
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    Wow, two things stick out like sore thumbs to me. Trout with100+ RBIs and McCutchen #3 overall. I guess you see Trout spending a good amount of time in the 3-hole. He can’t get those RBIs from the leadoff slot. Also I don’t like the Dread Pirate to repeat his power/speed or avg from last year. I think he is a pick that won’t win you a league, but sure can lose you one. I think his ceiling was last year’s stats. High risk/low reward IMO. I’d slot him after the sure thing first basemen at best. McCutch is 90/20/95/.270/25 for me. I’d rather have the masher formerly known as Mike’s 45 bombs and find speed later.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @ScottyM: Giancarlo’s 45 bombs would be nice, but he doesn’t come without his drawbacks either… McCutchen giving only 20/25 wouldn’t lose a league…

      • costaricanchata says:
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        @Grey:

        plus , it shouldn’t go unnoticed that cutch always hits half of his HRs at home , despite the fact that PNC suppresses home runs (4th worst park in the majors , i believe) .

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          There ya go…

      • cubfever7 says:
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        @Grey: If Trout is in the 3 hole and Albert is in the Pujol, what doeas that leave? (sorry -had to do it)

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ha!

        • Jah says:
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          @cubfever7:
          Hamilton in the K-hole?

  8. Jon says:
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    As a Pirates fan, expectations here in Pittsburgh are definitely that McCutchen will regress not improve, just because he basically did everything right in 2012 and his batting average is certain to drop. I’m thinking he can’t keep his avg above 290 (I’d guess 285 or so) and I’d expect more of the line you projected for Justin Upton (25+ HR, 20+ SB), which is still a great season but not 3rd overall numbers. Normally I trust you implicitly, Grey, but I’m pretty sure I wouldn’t take the Dread Pirate before Trout or Cano, and maybe not even before the 1B trio.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Jon: I’d hope at least the Pirate fans would be excited by one of their own making good… As I said above 25/20 from McCutchen would be fine in the grand scheme of things…

      • Jon says:
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        @Grey: Oh, we love Cutch – he was getting MVP chants at PNC Park all through the summer and he just won that video game vote on Twitter, I think we’re just always expecting the worst here after 20 years of losing. It is pretty awesome to see him considered top 5 in fantasy value, I just wouldn’t take him there myself :)

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I hear ya…

  9. Matt says:
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    Jason Mewes – Amazing you just mentioned him, as last night I watched a bad movie called Bitten with him in the lead role. For the first 15-20 minutes I couldn’t quite place where I knew him.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Matt: Ha…Never saw it…

  10. Jef says:
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    I’m a grown man, so I’m way too giddily happy to be read this post. the kids have been sick since Halloween, fantasy football was a ‘meh,’ the Phils outfield is looking blah-tastic and I was wondering if I had the juice to do another baseball season…until the TOP TEN! You’ve invigorated these gen-X bones, hombre. Thanks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Jef: De nada!

  11. Ken says:
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    The rankings mean it’s offically time for fantasy homework to begin (and regular work to suffer). Question about who to keep in a 10 team keeper with $270 budget: I can keep up to 5 players:

    $23 Joey Votto
    $24 Robinson Cano
    $27 Evan Longoria
    $1 Giancarlo Stanton
    $1 Bryce Harper
    $1 Anthony Rizzo
    $1 Manny Machado
    $18 Stephen Strasburg

    Much appreciated.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Ken: Votto, Cano, Stanton, Harper, Strasburg…

  12. Darkness says:
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    I’ve had a trade offer on the table this off-season, and seeing J Upton in the top 10 reminded me of it.

    I would give up Posey to the Giants fan in our league and take J Upton. I prefer Upton to Posey as well, but my 5 keepers currently are Giancarlo, Kemp, Hamilton, Cano and Posey. So would you guys take the better player in Upton or the greater roster flexibility in Posey?

    H2H 6×6 league (OPS, HDs), with starting one C, 1b, 2b, 3b,SS, LF, CF, RF, and UTL

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Darkness: I like Upton a lot more, but I’d take Posey there…

    • ScottyM says:
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      @Darkness: Take Upton then flip Hamilton for more talent if you can. I think Upton plays very similar to Kemp going forward. Both are 95/30/95/.290/20 guys. What an great start to an outfield that would be.
      I’m way off the Hamilton bus. His sw strk% is HUGE, he never plays a full year, is prone to slumps, has an addictive personality AND in moving parks his LH park HR factor for home park went from 117 to 82. I got Hamilton at 85/28/90/.275/9 with downside risk for playing time concerns. I’d rather have Matt Holliday & take my risk later in the draft.

      • costaricanchata says:
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        @ScottyM:

        with the exception of SB’s , i’ll take the “over” on all of your projections for hamilton .

        • ScottyM says:
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          @costaricanchata: I think that is normal for projections that have been restricted due to playing time concerns.

  13. Mike says:
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    Are you gonna have the draft war room this year? Best feature ever!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Working on it right now…

      • Mike says:
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        @Grey: cheers! u da man Grey!

  14. quimmy says:
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    Awesome stuff Grey! Quick question. I look at Votto’s projections and think to myself that Billy Butler is going to be available 5 rounds later and will produce very similar stats, acknowledging that Votto has a ceiling to do more than what you projected. Thoughts?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @quimmy: Votto has a ceiling to do more and Butler has a floor to do less, but, yes, they’re not that totally different…

  15. The Dude says:
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    The appearance of the 2013 rankings makes me excited to get to work in the morning again!

    • AdamH says:
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      @The Dude: So true.

  16. Sky

    Sky says:
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    I own both Miggy and Braun in my long-time keeper. Not that I needed it but thank you for confirming how awesome I am.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Sky: Smug, bastage!

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        @Grey: Thanks for confirming that too!

  17. Big Magoo says:
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    Man, I usually like being towards the bottom of the draft order, but it gets a little shaky after the top 7 for me this year. Votto’s an awesome real-life player, but I’m looking for more than 25/5 from my first rounder – that looks like a potential Allen Craig line. Giancarlo and J-Up are great and all, and I’m sure Kemp, CarGo, Longo, etc. are soon to come, but there’s a lot of risk from the late-first on it seems.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      @Big Magoo: Yeah, gets a bit dicey…

  18. AdamH says:
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    Good afternoon Grey,

    Lovin’ this stuff already.

    Do you subscribe to any of the projection sites or any other pay-sites that you find helpful? Or do you purchase any of the big projection books? Thanks for the advice!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I do my own projections… I don’t buy any…

      • AdamH says:
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        @Grey: Gotcha! Thanks and keep up the great work!

  19. cubbies299 says:
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    Hey Gray,

    I just joined a 4X4 dynasty NL only league, and am having trouble getting accurate dollar va lues for such a niche league. Do you have any advice on a place to go just as a baseline? I just need something to start with, so I can adjust the values as I see fit

    ~Jeremy

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      We do NL-Only dollar values… It’s coming in the next few weeks…

  20. Pochucker says:
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    Im probably going to get some looks at draft (12t h2h) but Im drafting 3rd and Votto is my pick. Obviously MCab and Braun are 1-2. Trout is a keeper for someone. McCutcheon will regress. Id like to take Kemp but never know with shoulder injuries. Cano? Dont get the feeling. Votto has yet to have his career year .

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I hear ya… You’re going on gut…

  21. Mr. Gray

    Nothing shocking… I am with ya on Miggie too at #1… Esp. in serpentine drafts for the safer long-ways-to-the-next-pick play and given his 3B check off…… Lose wieght, please

    After Albert, I go with a SP… Haven’t made my mind up yet on the one yet… Tend to double down in round 2 with an SP as well after a midway down first pick – if nothing yummy is not dangling then… I get an all gooey feeling having 2 big armed studs at the top of my team’s card..

    Fielder, I don’t draft obese players in the top rounds for health reasons… Miggie is on the cusp – really… The Prince is popular on this year’s lists though…

    Is ESPN 12 team free???? Or pay to play???

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      No reason to draft a SP that high… I’ll get into that… ESPN is free…

    • beardcrabs says:
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      @t moore: was babe ruth considered obese…

  22. Brightson says:
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    Good stuff, Gray…LMAO at “unicorn vomit”

    Need keeper advice…12 Team, H2H….Keep 4….I’ve made trades to get extra draft picks in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd rounds.

    Batters Stat Categories: (R), (H), (1B), (2B), (3B), (HR), (RBI), (SB), (AVG), (OBP)
    Pitchers Stat Categories: (W), (L), (CG), (SHO), (SV), (K), (ERA), (WHIP)

    Player, Draft Pick Given Up if Kept
    Heyward, 10
    Hosmer, 16
    W. Myers, 19
    Profar, 19
    Rizzo, 19
    J. Rollins, 6
    B.J. Upton, 5
    Bumgarner, 11
    M. Moore, 16

    Which four are you keeping?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Thanks! Heyward, Rizzo, Bumgarner, Moore…

  23. Tony says:
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    Grey- 12 team h2h league would u trade your 3rd and 4th round picks for another owners 1st and 10th rounder? The guy picks 3rd overall!? I’m thinking of saying YES…. I pick 11th overall……

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I wouldn’t…

    • thefaketom says:
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      @Tony: In these situations I always like looking at the possible players you would have chosen from last season (gotta try to forget what stats they ended up with, just who you favored going into the draft). Last season was rough as the first round was full of landmines.

    • Steve says:
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      I would make this trade. I’m sure you have your own rankings but if you follow Grey’s rankings as an example… vou could have first round picks of a Braun/Cabrera and McCutcheon (he could slip to 10th). That would be two tier 1 players. And if it ended up being McCutcheon and Upton well so be it, that would be a great start to a team.

      While this is snake draft, if you compare to auction values which are based on projected value to your team you would have this

      You
      1st round 3rd overall pick = $40+
      10th round = $9+

      Trade Partner
      3rd Round = $20-$21
      4th Round

      • Steve says:
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        @Steve: I would make this trade. I’m sure you have your own rankings but if you follow Grey’s rankings as an example… vou could have first round picks of a Braun/Cabrera and McCutcheon (he could slip to 10th). That would be two tier 1 players. And if it ended up being McCutcheon and Upton well so be it, that would be a great start to a team.

        While this is snake draft, if you compare to auction values which are based on projected value to your team you would have this

        You
        1st round 3rd overall pick = $40+
        10th round = $9+

        Trade Partner
        3rd Round late = $20-$21
        4th Round early = $20-$21

        You’re talking probably a minimum $7 in player value upgrade.

  24. birrrdy! says:
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    Awesome, thanks for the early gift January Grey!

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      No problem!

  25. Herschel says:
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    @Grey: feel like this is the opening episode of a new season. Grey moves revealing new set. Anything else I need to be caught up on? Cougar still in the mix? Any new sidekicks? Feels good to be back. Work productivity jus dropped 30 percent….

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Ha… Yeah, Cougs is still in the picture… Good to have you back!

  26. Brauns Baby Daddy says:
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    I want 2nd pick just to get my sweet paws on Braun.

    Hell, i think he’ll probably drop to 4 or 5 on most leagues STILL because of that drug shenanigoats.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Hehe… Yeah, could be… I’d love him at #5…

  27. Z says:
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    wow. no kemp. shocking.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I’m shocked people are ignoring his injury and last year wasn’t that great…

      • beardcrabs says:
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        @Grey: he has the same injury Agone had and look what happened to Agone’s power…

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Yeah, could be, but I think A-Gon’s problems are deeper than that…

  28. Steve says:
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    Are you drawing your interior decorating inspiration from A-Rod?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      HAHA!

      • Steve says:
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        @Grey: Probably need to work a marble statue in there somewhere too.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I was thinking of that too… Maybe just papier mache…

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              The one with him and a dog in his backpack is pure brilliance… After he brushed back Bryce Harper, Harper should’ve said, “At least I don’t carry a girlie back around in a Bjorn…”

              • Steve says:
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                @Grey: Heh. I’d say there’s enough trash-talking material there to last til the end of his career.

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  And this was the guy who was saying he’s old school and needed to teach a lesson?! I bet he does some offseason double dating with Dallas and Mat Latos…

                  • Steve says:
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                    @Grey: I’m not totally convinced that people who allow themselves to be shot soft-focus in flowing white clothes are spending their spare time hanging with Mat and Dallas.

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      No, you’re right…There’s nothing about Dallas Latos that’s soft, unless there’s been advances in silicone… Go give Sky some love in his post; he feels neglected…

                • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                  @Steve: I’m really glad I have a daughter, because I would not want my son looking up to this, and there are probably more of them out there, as a role model. we looked up to guys like George Brett and Mike Schmidt, guys you feared because knew they were men, men who could kick your ass while not looking like that

                  • Steve says:
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                    @Jack Full of Hate: Awww, he’s probably just a good guy who’s made some bad choices.

                    I have daughters too. I wonder how glad we’ll be when they hit the teenage years…

                    • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                      @Steve: I drink as much as I can dreading that day, and work on a gun collection to display in my house for intimidation. Fortunately I have a scary bunch of friends to scare the crap out of the boys that want to date her.

  29. Travis says:
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    Today is better than Christmas! Thanks Grey

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      No problem!

  30. Steve says:
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    I can’t be the only one sniggering at the news of this Putz extension.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Hehe…

  31. JasonTrout says:
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    Thanks for some baseball Grey! Love it all, as I have 3 of them on my dynasty squad, but and I say that lightly cause youre my baseball nerd God, but Upton at 10? He has kept us all waiting for this messiahesc season, that I dont feel coming anymore. I think, and I know Im a nobody, but if the often injured Tulo can play 145 games he will be a top 10 guy or even dare I say Posey.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      No problem… Upton had an off year last year due to an injury and he still had a productive year… Posey has an off year and he hits the same as Salvador Perez…

  32. Jack Full of Hate says:
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    not to be a hater, even though its in the name, but i don’t see whats the big deal of unveiling the top ten. I mean, its a pretty obvious list that will be be just as obvious when we fill out the the rest of the top twenty. I get interested when we get past the top 40 pitchers or top 40 hitters. the guys that I feel win your league for you. Don’t get me wrong, i love the entertainment value you bring to the table, the keystroke music you create in this special place we call home, unless this is more of a symbollic point where the realness of the season gets with the beginning of the ranks.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      I hate to be a non-hater, but I agree with you… If I were too outside the box here, say ranking Aroldis 7th overall (though he has a chance for that)… I’d be taken out back and shot…

      • Jack Full of Hate says:
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        @Grey: or worse taken out back and shaven, oh the humanity.

        hhmmm, ardolis seventh? sounds like some kind of bizarro rankings, I could see, “if the sun really shines on their arse and others really suck” rankings for sh&%# and giggles list. like five guys that you wouldn’t expect to finnish in the top 20 but do. now that would be a fun list. and I was worried i was going to be ostersized for hating on the commentors.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Ha… Yeah, but anyone could be on that list… That’s like when some people put together those lists of not very likely but could happen…

          • Jack Full of Hate says:
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            @Grey: chapman, willingham, niese, rizzo and rasmus, 5 who will be top 20!

            probably not, but it might happen.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I like three of those guys a lot… Willingham can’t due to no speed…

              • The Talented Mr. Dope Man says:
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                @Grey: Add Medlen to that list!

  33. OaktownSteve says:
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    Cabrera it’s hard to think of a reason it could go wrong. The booze thing gets tossed around as a joke but nothing off field has ever really slowed this guy down so can’t even really say there’s a risk. If he fails it’ll mostly be an outlier nobody saw coming.

    Braun is also pretty solid. Hard to imagine he was back on the juice last year after FedX fiasco. Only thing you could say about him is that he strikes out a little too much so a bad BABIP year could surpress his OBP and reduce his counters, but that would just be bad luck.

    McCutchen actually has a good lifetime bb/k rate at .66 (a shade better than Cabrera actually). The bad basestealing is too bad given how fast he is. He needs to go to the A’s Rickey SB camp. Could be that his HR to FB ratio regresses after last year’s career best but it could be that he matured physically and started driving the ball and the change is here to stay.

    Trout the only question is sample size and league adjustments. I think you’re right in that the speed helps bouy his baseline value. He’s going to steal bases.

    Cano I have a weird feeling about, but it might just be that he happened to slump when the national attention was on him. But he was awful late last year and I don’t really understand why. Just something nagging at me. Yankees line up overall seems like it’ll be less productive so that pulls him down a little.

    Fielder I can’t really see much not to like. Been healthy for a big guy, kind of has a low impact game playing first and jogging the basepaths. Couldn’t be in a better lineup situation. Very good BB/K ratio. I can see me owning him anywhere from 5th draft place down as long as he’s available.

    Pujols I don’t have a read on. He proved himself human. It’s not hard to imagine the Angels scoring a ton. But historically players Pujols age don’t get better. They get on a downward curve. 80% of his career averages still justifies the slot. I wonder about PEDs with him.

    Votto’s a line drive machine. His HRs will not go up as long as his LD rate stays where it is and I think it will. Probably shouldn’t count on many bags either. But everything else looks good. Solid pick.

    Stanton the Ks worry me and I don’t like banking on a player who might pout. He’ll hit homeruns. He could be an average anchor with some bad luck. Haven’t gotten to the point where I could say who I would raise above him, but the pick that makes me the most nervous on this list.

    Upton was not only injured last year, he pouted a lot. Gibson just doesn’t like him. Probably thinks he’s not a “gamer”. I think the risks are that he’ll pout more, that the wrist injury lingers (hitters and their hands, man) or that the trade thing sends him to an unfavorable park or just hangs over his head. But I find all that pretty minor. I think he may play with a chip on his shoulder. I can imagine a scenario where he ends up in the top two or three by the end of the year.

    Nice work. I know you struggled a little this year. I have been too. I think it’ll be a fun draft this year. If folks want to throw Trout 1 you couldn’t blame them. Every slot is up for grabs and I think there will be a lot more variance in the drafts.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
      (link)

      @OaktownSteve: Totally agree… I did struggle with this top ten, more than a top ten should, but for the first time I’d draft any of these ten (there’s no Tulo or Ellsbury or other guys that bothered me even though I still ranked them high)…

      • OaktownSteve says:
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        @Grey:

        I know what you mean about the I’ll draft any of them. A lot of times there are guys that had career years or popular opinion raises them up and you just aren’t comfortable. I think for some reason I haven’t gotten the Giancarlo kool-aid yet. I think there are some injuries there that show signs of being chronic, maybe that nags at me.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          I hear ya… What I like about Giancarlo is despite the injury last year he still did exactly what he should’ve done for power… 37 homers at the age of 22 years old in only 125-ish games is pretty impressive… If he gets 150 games, he’s gonna hit 50 homers… I think also about pouting; he could’ve pouted last year when Hanley was traded and the team look dreadful…

  34. BigFatHippo says:
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    @Grey: Grey, what’s up? Like the new site and I got a favor to ask.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Hit me….

      • BigFatHippo says:
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        @Grey: There’s a Cardinal minor league player who’s collecting baseballs and gloves to send to Afghanistan for the troops. He wants to collect a thousand gloves and was contacted by local radio station show The Fast Lane and they asked on the program if anybody from the air force base could help send them overseas. They contacted the Cards organization and they’re willing to help and I put them in touch with a guy that can make it happen. If I could post the link here and fellow Razzballers have any old gloves laying around gathering dust cause they, like me, are too fat and lazy to get up off their ass and play some catch anymore….well, do the right thing and send them over.

  35. Steve says:
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    It’s a party over at Sky’s post now.

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Damn, thunder stealer…

      • Steve says:
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        @Grey: There’s enough Steve-love to go round.

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        @Grey: It’s true. We just broke out the fondue and the bowl for the keys is on the counter next to it.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Aw, man, I love fondue!

          • Sky

            Sky says:
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            @Grey: True story: new friends of my S.O. met us a few times and then invited us over for a fondue party. Apparently I was the only one who understood the euphimism of ‘fondue party’. I stayed close to my wife the whole night and kept my keys close by.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I didn’t know fondue party meant anything but a terrific time with friends as we dipped pieces of succulent meat in Gruyere… Oh, and by succulent meat I mean twigs and berries…

              • Sky

                Sky says:
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                @Grey: Ha, I’ll take that to mean you’re a vegetarian? Wait…

      • Steve says:
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        @Grey: We just heard about your candy and windowless van.

      • Steve says:
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        @Grey: No LABR shenanigans this year?

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          We’re doing mixed league LABR… Where they put all the special kids… Or the kids Matthew Berry bars from playing in the regular leagues…

          • Steve says:
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            @Grey: Not being allowed into a club that’s run by Matthew Berry is kind of validating.

            • Grey

              Grey says:
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              I agree…

              • Steve says:
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                @Grey: Did you play any H2H last year?

                • Grey

                  Grey says:
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                  Yup, one league…

                  • Steve says:
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                    @Grey: Any learnings to share? My take-out from last year is that you should draft power, power and more power, and wait til about the 10th on a pitcher.
                    Too simplistic?

                    • Grey

                      Grey says:
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                      Nope, not too simplistic… Speed really isn’t worth much in H2H… Maybe some balanced guys and try to steal the category once in a while… Pitching’s all over the map from week to week too…

  36. Wilsonian says:
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    Guess who’s back?!

    Anyway, it’s good to be back in the fantasy baseball swing of things. I’ve been lurking, just not posting. What kind of season are we looking at for Hamilton now that he’s with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim of Southern California of the United States of America? I’m looking at him, Tulo, and Bruce for my last two keeper spots in an H2H league with H, R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG, OBPS as stats.

      • Wilsonian says:
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        @Grey: yeah, foosball and this 2 month old little girl kept me busy. But it’s time to get back into baseball mode.

        What’s your take on Bruce, Hamilton, and Tulo? Keeping two of them… Fielder, J-Up, and Longo are my other three.

        • Grey

          Grey says:
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          Lots will said about some of them tomorrow… Wink, wink, nudge, nudge…

  37. AJ says:
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    Is it really a huge deal that a guy “just started swinging a bat” three months before spring training even starts? Kemp’s game totals by season:

    2008: 155
    2009: 159
    2010: 162
    2011: 161
    2012: 106

    You tell me which one’s the outlier…

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      He was injured last year and he’s injured now, don’t think that’s great… Not like I’m saying to not draft him at all, he’s just not ranked yet…

    • Rock says:
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      Kemp is a monster….injury is a non-factor. He should be in the top 5….no way I would take upton over kemp.

    • Steve says:
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      @Sky: Yeah, Kemp needs to stay well away. Mind you, anything that keeps her away from that piece of shit Chris Brown, can’t be all bad.

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        @Steve: Yeah but why cant she hook up with someone whose career is already over? You know, like A-Rod.

  38. Jackie says:
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    Keeper question. I can keep 3 of these ($260 budget):

    Moobs Butler $9
    Dread Pirate $26
    Adam Dunn $3
    Matt Moore $1
    Corey Hart $10
    Profar $1

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Moore, Butler, Pirate…

  39. Leo says:
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    I’m in a 5×5 keeper league. Keep 10 plus 2 minors Can keep Em for life, no other criteria

    I have Bryce Harper and mike trout as my minor leaguers (will be using them this year…FYI won my league with them in the minor league spots all season hahaha)

    I have buster posey, Paul goldschmidt, Jose Reyes, Troy Tulowitzki, Miguel Cabrera, Evan longoria, josh Hamilton, Ryan Braun, Jason Heyward, Felix Hernandez, Adam wainwright, max scherzer, tommy Hanson, Mariano Rivera, Fernando rodney, Huston street among others

    Who Do iI keep? I am thinking
    Posey, goldschmidt, Reyes, Tulowitzki, Cabrera, longoria, Hamilton, Braun, Heyward, Hernandez

    But I am debating keeping Rivera, and dropping goldschmidt or Heyward as I want to win now (again next year)

    What should I do?

    • Leo says:
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      @Leo: @Leo: we play with 2 catchers and 4 outfielders.

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        @Leo: Busy time of year for the Greyster. If you don’t mind, I’ll step in.

        The keepers you listed are the ones I’d want. No way you should be dropping a guy like Heyward or Goldschmidt for a reliever whose 43…or a reliever period, honestly.

        Sorry we didn’t hit you up sooner, just that time of year.

      • Grey

        Grey says:
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        @Leo: I agree with Sky…

  40. Fecal Matters says:
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    Agree he’s going to a better lineup. But moving away from Chase Field, his home/road splits are a bit concerning.

  41. JOSE SIMON says:
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    are you hiring grey?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      We’ll consider new writers… Can’t pay though…

  42. Wade says:
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    Great list. Could use help on some keepers. My only for sure is Justin Upton. I have no idea where to go from there!! Tulo? Hayward?

    -Juston Upton
    -Ian Kinsler
    -Carlos Santana
    -BJ Upton
    -Jayson Hayward
    -Troy Tulowitzki
    -Evan Longoria
    -Jay Bruce
    -CC Sabathia
    -Yu Darvish

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      How many do you keep?

    • Grey

      Grey says:
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      Longoria…

  43. Wade says:
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    We only keep 2

  44. Leo says:
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    Reply to mine….

Comments are closed.