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There have been a number of improvements/adjustments in Stream-o-Nator and Hittertron since the start of the season.  For those of you keeping score at home, here is a list of what has changed:

New/Removed Stats

  • Added GT (Game Time) to Daily/Weekly Stream-o-Nator and Hittertron.  This displays the hour in which the game will start.
  • Added HR to Daily/Weekly Stream-o-Nator
  • Added Strikeouts (for hitters) to the weekly Hittertron and to Player Pages (no room in Hittertron Daily)
  • Removed the position-adjusted $ from the daily Hittertron (still in weekly Hittertron) in favor of only reporting the non-position adjusted $ ($U with the U standing for Utility) to create room for Game Time.  The position-adjusted $ served little purpose since most daily decisions are evaluating players who share the same position (so they’d receive the same adjustment) or for Utility (where position is irrelevant).

Functionality Changes

  • Removed Hittertron ‘Daily’ which had every batter/game for the next 7 days because it loaded too slow.  Replaced it with daily breakouts for the 5 days after tomorrow.
  • Added links to the player pages for opposing pitchers in Hittertron.

Projection Fixes/Improvements

  • Switched from pre-season projections to rest-of-season projections as the base for Stream-o-Nator/Hittertron
  • Adjusted Hittertron R/RBI estimates to better account for Park Factors (less runs scored in Petco vs. Coors)
  • Adjusted underlying Steamer ERA/WHIP/K projections if the pitcher was projected to have relief innings (typically, pitchers moving from the bullpen to starting gain 1.00 in ERA, 0.1 in WHIP and lose 1 K/9).
  • Adjusted ERA/WHIP/K-rate projections for interleague games for NL pitchers facing DH’s or AL teams facing opposing pitchers.

Planned Improvements In Next Couple Weeks

  • Develop a method to show accuracy per day/week per stat.
  • Move up posting date of Projected Next Calendar Week (Mon-Sun) – currently on Monday  mornings – by 1-3 days.
  1. Alan says:
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    Very cool

  2. Shake N Bacon says:
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    You Da Man

  3. elipitt says:
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    Thanks for these! Stream-O-Nator killed it for me in Roto last year. Since I started daily, Hittertron has been money! Literally!

      • James says:
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        @Rudy Gamble:

        good most of the time, but taking streamonator yesterday Maholm killed me

        • @James: yeah, ended up as an ugly stream. a LHP giving up a HR to Howard is blasphemy.

  4. kisses says:
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    You are way too good to us. Thank you for all that you do.

  5. razzball fastball says:
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    rate the trade

    prince fielder/jesse chavez
    for
    jose fernandez/coco crisp or billy hamilton

    • @razzball fastball: I prefer Jose Fernandez/Crisp. I don’t think Chavez will be worth much this year in mixed (Crisp definitely worth more) and I have J-Fer worth more than Fielder for ROS.

  6. Big Mike says:
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    Chapman projects with zero saves?

    • @Big Mike: Good catch. There was a glitch with injured relievers. Fixed it. 27 Saves.

      • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: for a second i thought he meant the HOU chapman, as he might be projected to get 0.

  7. hankp says:
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    Awesome Stuff

  8. Wacha Wacha says:
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    Hey Rudy

    I noticed B Cecil is tied for leading the league in S+H and also has a great K/9… could he be an elite set up man of the Rosenthal variety this year? Where would you rank him in terms of value in a S+H league relative to Benoit, Brothers, S Kelley, C Allen?

    Great job on the tools!

    • @Wacha Wacha: Just checked the Holds totals and they were a bit high for my liking. Throttled them down a touch so Cecil now at 17 Holds vs. 23 Holds. I like Benoit and Allen better than Cecil right now, Brothers about even, and Kelley a touch below Cecil.

  9. David Niven says:
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    Awsome stuff Rudy. Thanks for the efforts man.

    Hey Rudy, about when do you start to trust xfip? May 1? May 15? June1?

    Thanks for the great work, to the whole crew.

    • @David Niven: Sounds about right – although I focus more on FIP as I think certain pitchers are HR prone.

  10. Goose says:
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    Many thanks as always, Rudy!

    I wondered if you might not consider building a “Next 3 Days (Sum)” page for Hittertron? Sort of a split between the daily and weekly pages. Just was thinking, it’d be awful nice for those of us who might like to, say, look on a Friday afternoon at a player’s projected value for the weekend as we’re getting ready to, say, head up to the mountains to go fishing…

    • @Goose: You’re welcome. Yes, I’m considering it. Maybe once I get a few of the other enhancements completed.

  11. Looking for pitching says:
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    Thanks for all your work. I use both programs constantly.

  12. Pine Tar Incident says:
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    This is awesome – thanks Rudy.

    • @Pine Tar Incident: I picture you saying thanks with a flushed face, tobacco in cheek, and a fast-paced waddle

      • Pine Tar Incident says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: I just took the most perfect double tapered shit in my life.

        • Just avoid pine tar on your wiping hand.

  13. James says:
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    for stream o nator, i would suggest a similar extract of guys way over their head.

    Today for example i think Milone is projected for a $15 value (instead of looking at underlying stats), that is easily double or more than he is generally worth, so a pullout of guys like that would be nice. (Milone may not be the best example since we are talking about a top 30 pitcher at home, and hot garbage on the road… he is a hodgepadre without petco… an O.starter)

    • @James: okay, will think about how to do that.

  14. Best tools in the industry and they’re free?! I appreciate you, Mr Gamble.

  15. cubsin2020 says:
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    SON almost ruined me this week with that Maholm ordeal. Luckily I also started Lee. It evened out, I guess.

  16. c0wfunk says:
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    Love the tools man, totally invaluable to me and I reference them every day.

    One thing I’ve noticed this year is that the top filters don’t work as well on my nexus 7 tablet as they did last year.. Only 1 filter at a time actually works and they don’t work as I type, I have to hit the search button on my keypad first.

    Has there been a change or is the browser at fault? Let me know if I can help troubleshoot in any way.

    • @c0wfunk: I doubt it’s the operating system. The grid is a WordPress plugin so it’s possible that they made some changes when we updated it this year (which enabled the dynamic row numbers).

      • c0wfunk says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: ah that’d explain it. Fwiw I also can’t get the multi player | select to work either but I wouldn’t waste too much time on that one. Thanks again you guys are far and away the bestest of the best.

        • the multi-player seems to work if you have exact matches on both sides but doesn’t wildcard any more. So Adam Eaton | Adam Jones spits back both players but Adam Eaton | Jones will not.

  17. RicoSuave says:
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    The RAZZCREW always delivers! Thanks guys…

  18. SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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    thanks for the updates Rudy!

    curious what your thoughts are on this team in a 20-teamer – which moves would you make? Profar, Gennett, Kubel, Solarte, Duda are on waivers, or I could stash Polanco or Syndergaard..

    C – Wieters
    1B – Pujols
    2B – Hill
    3B – Moustakas
    SS – Segura
    OF – Jones
    OF – Heyward
    OF – Almonte (Avisail screwed me here!)
    U – Ibanez (dropping him for Junior Lake – waiver ends 4/24)
    BN – Singleton

    SP – Cingrani
    SP – Archer
    SP – Tillman
    RP – Soria
    RP – Broxton
    P – Lindstrom
    P – Erlin
    BN – Jim Henderson
    DL – Cobb

    Thanks a lot!

    • @SheriffMcRawDawg: I think Singleton will be unstartable (1B only). I’d drop him in favor of keeping Ibanez or prospecting Polanco. None of those other guys you noted on waivers are going to add much value unless you have an injury. I’d prefer Kubel over Almonte though since you have some speed already with Segura.

      • SheriffMcRawDawg says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Thanks! I should mention it’s a weekly league – just thought Singleton’s power might play, locked in at Util. Kubel over Lake then? Ibanez has OF elig. too

        Also – pitching’s real thin in the league, and I just lost Nova. Best available are probably McAllister/Hughes/Robbie Ross? Not worth dropping Erlin for any of those (or Syndergaard)?

  19. 2 Giant rings says:
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    I can’t figure out how to use stream-o-nator. Is there an explanation on the site somewhere? Thanks.

    • @2 Giant rings: There is some explanation underneath it. Nick keeps saying he’s going to do a video tutorial on it but then he ends up taping for 2 hours and all he’s talked about is his move from Toronto to Phoenix.

      No real need to overthink it. Streamonator projects ever game started and then ranks based on their estimated value. I use auction $ since that’s the most common way to value fantasy baseball players. it is based on 12-team MLB. Most users put a ‘$ floor’ on the value of a start to decide whether to sit a guy they own or stream a free agent. For 12-team mixed with an IP/GS limit, that floor is $8. For AL/NL only, I tend to use $0. For 15-team mixed, I tend to use $4.

  20. Tim says:
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    Park adjustments.

    This tool is awesome and thanks for making it available. I have a quick question.

    Are any park adjustments made for hitters playing in their home park? I would think that park factors are 50% built into ROS projections if you adjust again when the player is actually playing in their home park aren’t you overadjusting the projection? Just seems like there are 5 Rockies in the top 10 every time they play at home.

    • @Tim: Yes, all players’ ROS projections (both hitters and pitchers) are first park-neutralized and then the park factor for that specific game is applied. For example, let’s say a pitcher has a 4.00 ERA and his home park has a run factor of 90 (10% less runs than average) and he’s going to a park with a factor of 110. The 4.00 ROS ERA would be adjusted to reflect the 50% of starts he has at his home park 4.00/(90+100)/2 = 4.21. Then the park factor for that day would be applied so 4.21*1.1=4.63.

      There are other factors that are applied based on the strength of the opposing lineup (taking into account injured/inactive players) and whether it’s a home or away game (players do better at home).

      The reason the Rockies jump to the top when they are at home is that the park factors are insane. Take a look at this pull from Fangraphs based on 2012-2013 Rockie Home hitting stats for those with 300+ PA:

      http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=300&type=0&season=2013&month=15&season1=2012&ind=0&team=19&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

      6 of the 9 hitters are above .300 (including DJ Lemahieu and Jordan Pacheco)! In 131 games, Dexter Fowler had 534 PAs of 95/17/65/18/.322. His road record that year in 123 games was 416 PAs of 48/8/30/13/.238.

      Net-net, if the Rockies are home, every hitter should be started. I am ‘Batty Calling’ Stubbs and Barnes in my 12-team RCL league tonight and had Dickerson in my 15-team mixed (and stupidly dropped him that morning in 12-team RCL because i needed to replace Hardy).

  21. Rudy your thoughts on this trade offer:

    I send Pineda. Tanaka and Aramiz Ramierz
    I get back Miggy & Cueto

    • @Malicious Phenom: Yeah, I like this trade a lot. Miggy much better than Aramis. Cueto comparable to Tanaka (I like Tanaka a little better). Pineda such a high injury/regression risk. The Tanaka-Cueto difference + Pineda’s marginal value still smaller than Miggy vs. Aramis.

  22. Charles says:
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    These tools are so awesome. As a data analysis nerd, I appreciate the thoughtfulness in making all of these tools interconnected. Now for a fantasy question, considering the dollar values happen to be in reverse order from draft day, which one would you be benching tonight? (6×6 with OBP and Ks; no AVG)

    B Hamilton – $16.9
    A Gordon – $11.9
    W Myers – $9.0
    B Harper – $4.9
    P Fielder – ($1.0)

    • @Charles: sorry. grey is better than me at handling gameday questions (not at the ready for comments as much as him). for 6×6, i generally recommend de-emphasing SB so I’d always start those other 4 over him. remember the $ are 5×5 based and don’t reflect the OBP.

  23. Eric says:
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    Just stopping in to say thanks, great stuff here.

  24. Skenny Lofton says:
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    Apologies if this is the wrong forum… I’m a virgin Razzballer, but I’m hooked.

    I’m in a 10 team H2H categories with 6 keepers. If there is one ‘weakness’ with the team I inherited, it is 1B/3B/CI. My starters are Abreu, Sandoval, and Posey with Headley in reserve. I have Rosario slotted in a C and Mesoraco fills my UT spot while he’s hot shizz. Pitching is pretty solid, other than the fact that my dumbass dropped Salazar for Mike Leake’s 2 starts this week ( F-you, Ike Davis).

    Anyway… is it ever OK to trade Mike Trout? In a keeper league? Doode has been hounding me since I joined in the off season, and he just put his best offer on the table… Darvish and Chris Davis. Now, I’m not sold on Davis, and he’s not off to a great start, but melikes Darvish a lot.

    Maybe a third, lesser piece if I can get it? Or is this good enough? My outfield would still have CarGo, Puig, Ozuna, Yelich, and…..

    • Skenny Lofton says:
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      @Skenny Lofton: Maybe I try to pry Manny Machado or Matt Holliday by throwing in Headley or one of the Marlins OFers?

    • @Skenny Lofton: If this is legacy ownership where you own him forever, I would never want to trade Trout in 10 team H2H. But Darvish/Davis is almost an overwhelming offer. That’s #6 and #14 on my ROS values for 10 team (http://razzball.com/playerrater-restofseason-10teamespn/).

      I think I make that trade if I were you. Giving up Trout feels awful but that’s so much value.

  25. Frank White says:
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    What’s Rudy… Would you grab Bedard or Hutchison on Tuesday the 24th?? Or neither?? They look like great streams

    • Aubrey Plaza's Pillow says:
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      @Frank White: hutchison

    • @Frank White: I think both are solid but trust Hutchison a little more right now. Just a little gun shy on streaming against Baltimore but Davis/Jones aren’t hitting well and Wieters is beat up.

  26. Nicholas Pieroni says:
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    Trade got vetoed in my league. I gave Braun, Trumbo, Cingrani and Soria for McCutchen, Votto, and Chapman. Points league HR are worth 8 points. Do you guys think it should have been vetoed? Thanks. I have asked a couple of your cohorts already just trying to get as many opinions as possible. The cutch side is the side that everyone says is too much. Basically Braun and crap for Cutch, votto, and chapman

    • Well, Uhh... says:
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      @Nicholas Pieroni: Who cares what any of us think? We aren’t in your league and don’t have a vote.

      • Nicholas Pieroni says:
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        @Well, Uhh…: Good lord man. Just trying to get opinions. If it was fair, not fair, which side people would prefer, even if its veto worthy. Sorry to waste your time. That’s why we have forums like this to ask questions.

        • Balmy Tundrastein says:
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          @Nicholas Pieroni: and we also have forums for people like him above to do what he’s doing. it sucks. Vetoers are generally the same type of people who are jealous assclowns who in fantasy sports be themselves more than they ever would in normal life. They are likely the kind of people who would want to yell out stop! at a wedding when a girl they like is being married, except they don’t, because it isn’t socially exceptable. It sounds more exceptable when they hide their jealously behind such phrases as “it’s unfair” in fantasy sports, but it certainly wouldn’t sound normal to say “it’s not fair that hot girl X married guy Y” in regular life.

    • @Nicholas Pieroni: I definitely prefer the Cutch side of the trade. I like Dread Pirate more than Braun (safer), Chapman over Soria, and Votto over Trumbo/Cingrani. But as long as the trade is with a consenting adult, I think most at Razzball including me would deem the veto ‘lame’.

  27. Scott says:
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    Should I trade J. Upton and Kazmir for A. Sanchez, Garza and Gordon?

    • Scott says:
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      Or for Sanchez, Garza and Springer? Would you do one or both? Which is better?

      • @Scott: What says the http://razzball.com/playerrater-restofseason-12teamespn/? Always skeptical of trades where you’re giving up the best player (J-Up). I don’t like Garza. I like Anibal more than Kazmir and Gordon isn’t far off from J-Up. Springer is a wild card – better HR/SB than Gordon but will likely disappoint in R/RBI/AVG. I’d probably hold tight but prefer the Gordon/Aniba/Garza version vs Springer if you desperately need the 2nd arm.

  28. Smalls Killer says:
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    I really appreciate your work Rudy. Hittertron especially and of course I like SON, he gets me out of trouble more than he gets me in trouble. I have 2 options at each base and 4 Of to fill 3 Spots and 2 UT. And I have been able to crush it in hit cats while Kershaw and Cobb are on the mend. I’ve also been holding Tavares, what are your thoughts with him? I saw news he may have re aggravated his ankle

    • @Smalls Killer: Thanks! Always great when you can still do well in pitching while an ace is on the mend. I’ve had that in one league w/ Hamels and doing that in hitting w/ RCL and Beltre (Kouz was a solid replacement).

      I’m eh on Tavares for 2014. I don’t see him playing every day. Unless it’s a keeper league, no reason to be carrying him. I prefer Polanco for 2014 since Snider/Tabata suck.

  29. nomnomnom says:
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    Hi Rudy. Need Help. Looking into acquiring Bautista or Choo and was wondering who would be the better fit for my lineup.
    C – Castro
    1B – E.Encarnacion
    2B – Altuve
    3B – Sandoval
    SS – Segura
    MI – Peralta
    CI – Hosmer
    5 OF – Braun, Holliday, Werth, Cespedes, Melky Cab
    UTIL – Seager
    BN – Wong, R.Davis, Reddick, G.Polanco
    Standard 5×5 Roto, 12 team, redraft.
    I have offered to me Choo for Polanco, Werth and Cishek.
    some ideas: Werth and Cishek for bautista or Choo
    Werth, Cishek, G.Polanco and Peralta for Bautista or choo and Simmons.
    Thank you for input

    • @nomnomnom: Choo sprained his ankle yesterday and while it’s not a high ankle sprain (which would likely necessitate a DL stint), it’d be hard to pull the trigger without knowing when he’ll be back. Your team is pretty well balanced b/w power/average/speed so i think Choo vs. Bautista is more your preference since their values are equivalent. I think Werth/Cishek is greater than both those hitters but works if you are loaded in Saves.

      • nomnomnom says:
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        @Rudy Gamble:
        thx Rudy. Always look forward to your advice, and anything you post.
        just sounds good to me.

  30. AL KOHOLIC says:
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    awesome rudy,your the man,anyone not on this site,is really missing out on the full fantasy experience

  31. Smalls Killer says:
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    is Mesoraco getting lucky? I’ve been playing him for 2 weeks and hittertron has been down on him the whole time on most days but yet keeps mashing. I can see him cooling off but good lineup/ballpark, Do you think he can maintain 50% of current production? Or 75%?

    • @Smalls Killer: Yes, he’s clearly had some BABIP luck but a .500 AVG is still amazing. He’s only K’d once in his last 21 PAs where his K-rate is usually in the 15% range. I think he’s still a .250 hitter with 20 HR power (in 500 AB) but worth riding while hot.

  32. Ryan says:
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    Not sure if this is technically possible, but it would be cool if we could adapt the hitter-tron to show only the players on our teams. Have some kind of login so it would save our players and then we just view our team and each players value.

    I am a huge an of SON and HT. I use them everyday and hope no one else in my league finds out about them.

    • @Ryan: Thanks. Setting it up to allow for ‘saved hitters/pitchers’ is possible but requires a lot of work. Just don’t think there’s enough value there to warrant the investment at this time – especially when a lot of the value is finding guys NOT on your roster….

  33. Maxi says:
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    Ru-day,

    I’m in a 12 team head to head keeper league (OBP, SLG and SV/HLD added) and sitting in 1st after 3 weeks…After many refuted attempts to ship Braun in the post 3-HR era, I was just offered Scherzer for Ryan Braun. Both would be 1st round keepers next year.

    My other OFs are Bruce, Cespedes, Khris Davis, Aoki and Eric Young, with Calhoun on the DL.

    I have a good staff (Cole, Wacha, Gray, Liriano, Kuroda) but could def use an ace. My main concern is Braun having already peaked and that thumb not getting any better, but the Brew Crew looks awfully good with the bat…

    Appreciate it thanks

    • @Maxi: I like that trade. Scherzer is ahead of Braun on my ROS player rater and I think Braun has more risk than Scherzer.

      • Maxi says:
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        @Rudy Gamble: Thanks, I’m going to see if I can get anyone else in addition to Scherzer first.

        I want to minimize risk at this point, and Scherzer’s as good a bet to stay healthy, however it does appear that pitcherapocalypse is upon us.

  34. FilthyRich says:
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    Love the earlier posting! I have way more time to set up my pitching for the week on Sunday night than on Monday when I’m at work.

    • @FilthyRich: Yup, fingers crossed it’ll be available for the next calendar week. Will see if it works on Friday…

  35. subs81 says:
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    who would u rather have for the year 5×5–
    have to dump one—
    bonafacio-akley-wong?

    thanks

    • @subs81: i’d dump ackley though none of three thrill me.

  36. napster says:
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    I don’t wanna burst any bubbles here, but you fellahs really should do a proper statistical correlation analysis over a month, because I have found no correlation with the $U values you list and the actual daily results.

    I have started to do this more systematically however and will share my results. I wil compare the $U dollar values to what I call Hitter points. Hitter points = H + R + RBI + HR + SB.

    Just looking at today’s day games only:
    ** out of the top 10 hitters (scoring from 4 to 7 hitter points) a whooping 6 out of 10 had less than 9.1 Hittertron $U values. Only 2 had Hittertron $U values north of 20 ( Rajai Davis and Miguel Cabrera).

    ** out of the 4 Hitters with Hittertron $U values north of 20, only 2 hitters got more than 1 Hitter points for the game — of 50%, which is no better than a coin toss.

    • I’m working on it but you seem to think we’re under the delusion that the $U is highly predictive. Of course it isn’t. Pre-season projections – which have the luxury of a 162 game sample – are not incredibly predictive. The consensus top 10 for hitters is lucky to have 4 that finish in the top 10.

      The value of Hittertron is that – by adjusting for park and opponent – it should correlate better than just the ‘rest of season’ ranking of the player or using last week’s/month’s stats. It’s about finding a small edge vs your competitors in a world where one day’s stats can be incredibly random.

  37. napster says:
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    It’s all good dawg. Again I’m not trying to rain on the hard work you guys do. Nor am I even saying the hittertron is not worthy. I’m just saying there is no statistical correlation.

    And I’m also gonna follow through with the analysis.

    http://img173.imagevenue.com/img.php?image=63713_HitterTronValue_vs_HitterPoints_Thursday24April2014_122_242lo.jpg

    This for Thursday, 24 April.

    the interesting thing is that the percentage of getting zero points decreases as $U increases, which makes sense. The percentage of getting 2 or more points, or 3 or more points is not quite so correlative.

    There also seems to be a huge jump in the percentage (up to 50%) when the $U is greater than 25. So at the high end of the $U scale, the chances of success are very strong. The only thing is that this might be due to the inherent high variance of small samples because the sample of players with $U values is less than 10.

    I’ll keep doing this for a few days cause it’s got my curiousity.

  38. napster says:
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    Here’s Friday’s Analysis.


    http://img209.imagevenue.com/img.php?image=07446_HitterTronValue_vs_HitterPoints_Friday25April2014_122_167lo.jpg

    I’m not including hitters with negative $U values, so these are the top 245 hitters from the hittertron for Friday, April 25th.

    One thing for sure, is that the chance of non-zero points (if a player plays) has very strong correlation and is probably predictive. At least 63% if the $U is 5 or more. It’s greater than 80% if the $U value is 20 or more.

    In general, outside of randomness, $U values that are 20 or more have at least 40% chance to get 2 points or more, and at least a %30 chance to get 3 points or more.

    I didn’t do the reverse analysis, ie. Given the points, what percent were with a specific $U value interval. I also am working on seeing if their is any correlation with the sum of team hitter $U values and the sum of the points that result for the entire team. Excel is being funny with accepting TEXT as a criteria match for the sumif formula I would normally use. It works if the criteria is a NUMBER, but I don’t wanna have to convert all the team names to numbers. The TEXT input is not normally an issue, so I’m waiting to figure it out.

    I’ll post the results. Eventually I’ll share the entire excel workbook. I’m making a sheet for each day, and a separate sheet called daily so I can just update the day’s stats and have the hitter points automatically calculated.

    Thanks for the website. It is awesome. I’m just doing this for fun. :-) :-)

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